117 replies to this topic

[trekfan55]

I think this is spot-on. Amateur scouting -- whether decision-makers or ground-level scouts -- have far outclassed the pro group, since at least 2006. Now, there's a whole lot more exposure involved in pro scouting, because FA's and MLB trades get more press, as well as a lot less upside risk. So I don't mean to say the amateur scouting group hasn't missed occasionally. Sawdaye picked Vitek as his first overall draft choice, after all.

However, the amount of leash Baird gets is outrageous. I was okay with letting Tito and Theo go last offseason, as it seemed they had started to become ineffective after many long years. But I really just wanted to see Bogar and Baird gone. Bogar got moved off 3B, which is good enough for me. But unfortunately, in passing the reins to Cherington rather than looking for the best young GM with a fresh outlook, Baird is still around.

And Baird seems to be just as -- if not more than -- influential on Ben as he was on Theo. Flipping Scutaro for Ross was a good move, but that doesn't make up for misses on Reddick, Lowrie, Punto, Byrd, and (although I believe this was forced by BV) Lillibridge. It's difficult for him to get his feet held to the fire, though, since he's the "garbage-in" component and what fans care about is when "garbage out" results.

It's not really fair to lump everything that way.

Reddick is one case where the guy is playing better than anyone expected, but Andrew Bailey's horrible luck injury influences this. If Andrew Bailey is closing for the Sox, this deal is close to even.

Lowrie has already had one stint in the DL and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks now, so he is still finding himself unable to stay on the field.

Punto, I will not say a word. I will never understand what compelled the FO to give him a 2 year deal.

Byrd was traded for when the Sox had no one who could play CF. As soon as bodies starting coming back, he was gone. Hard to really think of this as a failure.

As for Lillibridge, as we can see in this very trade, there was more to the Youks trade than just getting the best player possible.

[Rudy Pemberton]

And Baird seems to be just as -- if not more than -- influential on Ben as he was on Theo. Flipping Scutaro for Ross was a good move, but that doesn't make up for misses on Reddick, Lowrie, Punto, Byrd, and (although I believe this was forced by BV) Lillibridge. It's difficult for him to get his feet held to the fire, though, since he's the "garbage-in" component and what fans care about is when "garbage out" results.

Curious; why is Baird being blamed for trading Reddick, Lowrie, and acquiring Punto and Byrd (the fact that Valentine gets blamed for acquiring Lillibridge, a guy he had no use for playing)? To what extent was Baird involved in those moves? I'm not saying he wasn't, just yet to know that he was....seems like most moves (acquiring, demoting, playing) are blamed on Lucchino, Bobby,or Baird. None of whom are the GM.

[lexrageorge]

It's ridiculous to blame anyone for Marlon Byrd. The team needed an OF'er desperately, and found one on the cheap at a time when the trade market is normally dead. He was never intended to be anything more than a replacement player until guys got healthy. And that's what they got.

[glennhoffmania]

I tried to remove myself from the value and roster math that lead to me to conclude that this was a bust.

What are some of the extra curricular reasons why they would trade him? And do they benefit the Sox at all?

By promoting WMB, Youks (whose name autocorrects as Toils) became a backup for the first time in his distinguished career. By trading him for virtually nothing the Sox let him reestablish his value as a starter on a competitive team. They did him a great service at a possible considerable cost to the organization. The front office really went out of their way to put Youk in a great situation. Assuming the guy wasn't a clubhouse cancer and none of his teammates had a problem with WMB's promotion does this benefit the Sox at all?

Perhaps it does. Baseball players saw that the Sox went above and beyond for Youk. Perhaps this will make players more amiable to sign with the Sox. If they think that the Sox will put them in the best position for them to succeed even if it means trading them for less than optimal value that could end up being something that pushes them to signing with Boston if the $ and years are in the same ballpark (pun intended). This is a new Sox front office (maybe just technically) and trading Youk is one of their first significant actions.

What's the magnitude of this benefit? I don't know. It isn't going to trump $ and years but I dont think it can be dismissed entirely either. It is probably a very small edge for the Sox.

Thoughts? Any other ideas for how this trade could help the front office thinking outside the vacuum of the trade in and of itself (no way I would write 'per se' on a sports board!)?

To play satan's advocate, here's the flip side:

Players see a really good player who busts his ass on every play, who signed a team friendly contract, and who has had some injuries as he's gotten older get forced out of town because the loud mouthed manager decided he didn't like him. So they dumped him for a bag of crap because the player and the manager couldn't co-exist.

So why would they want to join this clubhouse?

[SMU_Sox]

In all fairness he looked bad out there and WMB was playing extraordinarily well. Was it really the him vs Robert the fifth that got him traded? Would you argue that WMB is responsible for his benching but his relationship as a bench player with the manager got him traded?

I saw it more as the Red Sox doing him a favor with the side drama a mere influence but not the catalyst. However if a player saw or heard it differently I have no argument with their perspective. How you interpret what happened is up to you to a certain extent.

[lexrageorge]

To play satan's advocate, here's the flip side:

Players see a really good player who busts his ass on every play, who signed a team friendly contract, and who has had some injuries as he's gotten older get forced out of town because the loud mouthed manager decided he didn't like him. So they dumped him for a bag of crap because the player and the manager couldn't co-exist.

So why would they want to join this clubhouse?

Let's consider the scenarios:

Top tier FA's: point is moot due to payroll issues for the next year, anyway. After that, this becomes ancient history.

Own FA's: Well, the big one is Ellsbury, and I don't think he's too upset about this.

Trades: Moot unless it's a 10/5 player, and I'm not sure why this team would be buying any 10/5 guys right now.

Bullpen/utility/5th starters/minor league FA's: 95% of them would be happy to have the Red Sox, or just any team, calling.

[trekfan55]

Maybe nothing more than one day but...

Youk tight left hamstring, will be available to PH

Mark Gonzalez

[Otis Foster]

Youkilis left today's game with a sprained ankle - consider him day to day..

...............LaVelle E. Neal III on Twitter, per Rotoworld.

(Didn't see it elsewhere, but snuff it if duplicative.)

[Eric Van]

WMB splits before the trade:

.357 / .415 / .643 (94 PA) HOME
.283 / .290 / .500 (62 PA) ROAD

Since the trade:

.143 / .139 / .171 (35 PA) HOME; Team 5.7 R/9
.325 / .341 / .600 (41 PA) ROAD; Team 2.7 R/9

You might dismiss the latter split if the team were facing much better pitching at home, but the opposite has been true. Without checking everyone else's numbers, I'd bet he's been the team's worst hitter at home and best on the road since the trade.

It's possible this is just a fluke, but it's also possible that he's been pressing a bit before the home fans since he became Youk's actual heir rather than heir apparent.

Edited by Eric Van, 26 July 2012 - 11:40 PM.

[Rasputin]

...............LaVelle E. Neal III on Twitter, per Rotoworld.

Completely off topic, but the fact that I recognize LaVelle Neal's name does not cover him with glory.

[OCD SS]

You might dismiss the latter split if the team were facing much better pitching at home, but the opposite has been true. Without checking everyone else's numbers, I'd bet he's been the team's worst hitter at home and best on the road since the trade.

You mean we can't dismiss the latter split because it's a total of 76 PA?

[wibi]

So we are at the trade deadline and I'm stuck in a meeting where I cant do research. I have a burning question stuck in my head of

"Does Youk have more value today than he did at the point of his trade?"

I havent seen many (if any) rumors about teams looking to move 1B/3B men outside of Headley and even his name hasnt been pandered around much in the past 48 hours.

So I ask SoSH, is Youk more valuable today then he was the day he was traded?

[Lose Remerswaal]

Since the All Star break:

57 AB 10 H (2 2B, 3HR) 14 BB 1 HBP .175/.342/.368 .711OPS

[Cellar-Door]

Probably about the same, he went on a hot streak, cooled off and got injured twice (minor both times luckily), and you get more than a month less games out of him now. Not sure who would think he was a clear upgrade worth giving up much to rent.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The more time goes by the more it looks like Ben pulled off a hell of a move getting anything at all for Youks at any point in the season.

[Plympton91]

Since the All Star break:

57 AB 10 H (2 2B, 3HR) 14 BB 1 HBP .175/.342/.368 .711OPS

Over the same period, Middlebrooks is at .300 / .313 / .492; with 1 BB and 17 strkeouts in 69 at bats. So, the difference is Middlebrooks having a completely unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play. Going to be a bitch if that BABIP luck catches up to Wilton Middlebrooks while he still can't lay off anything thrown within a yard of home plate.

[mt8thsw9th]

So you're saying he's been much more valuable?

[foulkehampshire]

Over the same period, Middlebrooks is at .300 / .313 / .492; with 1 BB and 17 strkeouts in 69 at bats. So, the difference is Middlebrooks having a completely unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play. Going to be a bitch if that BABIP luck catches up to Wilton Middlebrooks while he still can't lay off anything thrown within a yard of home plate.

You think some of that can be attributed to it being his first year in the MLB? There's no reason to think he can't become more selectively agressive.