12 replies to this topic

[Sprowl]

Aceves was ridiculously lucky in 2011 as an ace reliever (10-2 is vulture territory, and so are the rest of his peripherals below. So far in 2012 he has not been a particularly successful closer (0-6 and 20-24 saves isn't great for a closer), but he has not been especially unlucky. The key indicators of pitchers' luck from 2011 to 2012 (data from Fangraphs; league averages from memory, please update):

• HR/FB goes from 5.3% to 8.2 (league average close to 11%)
• BABIP goes from .231 to .272 (league average close to .300)
• LOB% goes from 80% to 68% (league average close to 75%)

Two key indicators of skill and risk are unchanged:

• GB% goes from 39.6 to 38.4
• BB/9 goes from 3.32 to 3.35

He's still who we thought he was -- a flyball pitcher with indifferent control, including the occasional HBP. But two other key indicators have jumped:

• K/9 goes from 6.32 to 8.47
• fastball velocity average goes from 92 to 94

Something about the job has helped Aceves take the next step up -- it could be the shorter appearances; it could also be the high leverage, since Aceves seems to like the challenge.

Andrew Bailey might be back in six weeks, the god of thumbs permitting. Should he get the closer's job? Is Melançon's stuff good enough to merit another chance at high-leverage innings in the meantime?

[Adrian's Dome]

I don't think it's necessarily important who the closer is. Melancon's put up great numbers in low leverage situations since coming back, so he certainly should get a chance to prove himself in higher leverage situations, but there's no need to unseat Ace and prop someone else up as "the closer". I think the best thing to do is slightly alter appearances and use based on who's got the hot hand, but given that the bullpen's been performing great since the first few weeks of the season, there's no need to mess with the set roles that the players seem to be comfortable in. In short, let Ace keep closing games, but since Atch is on the DL, give some of his high-lev innings to Melancon and see if he takes to it.

When Bailey comes back, ease him in the same way Melancon was. There's no need to throw him straight to the wolves and put him in the main spotlight when the other cogs in place are all turning well.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Assuming Aceves remains as successful as he's been (which is to say about average as a closer), I agree that you keep him in that role, and aim to move Bailey into the 8th inning position, after giving him a few low leverage workouts. You've got Melancon pitching well who can move into the 9th inning if need be, or Bailey, should that be necessary in the last few weeks of the season.

[TomRicardo]

Aceves is a below average closer who has a rubber arm and is more suited to middle relief. Bailey is world's better as a closer. Just because Aceves is a bit better a pitcher in closer doesn't mean you keep him there if he is not your best bet

[lexrageorge]

The team needs to put pitchers in the role that gives the team the greatest chance of winning. Aceves has been a league average reliever this season. Depending upon who you believe, his WAR is somewhere between 0.2 and 0.7, not a lot different than Papelbon has been this season. But the fact he's been able to fill 46 IP makes him a pretty valuable commodity for a team that's had issues with their starting pitching.

Throwing Bailey immediately into the closer's role on a team fighting tooth and nail for a playoff spot will likely be disastrous. Bailey will likely be eased back initially, then brought into some high-leverage 8th inning situations. I would expect and hope that the same happens to Melancon as well; the body of work since his demotion should mean more than the handful of horrible outings back in April, but baseball coaches aren't always the brightest bulbs in the room, so you never know.

If Bailey starts showing he can be counted on in those high leverage situations, then Aceves will either share the high-leverage relief role, or be moved into the rotation for a couple of games. It will be interesting to see how Valentine navigates this minefield while the mediots continue to nip at his heels.

[cahlton]

Why wouldn't you make Bailey the closer? Aceves' performance hasn't been exceptional. Also, the roster has been in a state of constant upheaval, so Bailey replacing Aceves will be just another instance of a returning star--like Crawford, Ellsbury, and Pedroia--claiming his position.

Bailey is a significant upgrade over Aceves. If the Red Sox do somehow make the postseason, it should be Bailey who protects late-inning leads.

[joe dokes]

If the injuries to Bailey and Rivera haven't proven that "closers"™ are the most overvalued overrrated and overpaid commodity in baseball, nothing will.

Assuming both Bailey and Aceves are "good pitchers" worthy of trust in high leverage situations, I think usage boils down to their skills. Aceves has two skills that Bailey hasn't shown -- durability and versatility. Once Bailey shows he's healthy and effective, BV should go ahead and let him pitch the 9th inning. And let Aceves pitch at any time good pitching needs to happen. He's the closest thing to Derek Lowe c.1998-99 I've seen. I think BV trusts him and wants to use him every day. He's wasted as a "closer."

[Plympton91]

If the injuries to Bailey and Rivera haven't proven that "closers"™ are the most overvalued overrrated and overpaid commodity in baseball, nothing will.

How is this true at all? In the absense of Rivera the Yankees were able to turn to Rafael Soriano, who is a $10 million a year insurance policy that the Yankees can afford and other teams can't. But, he's also got 23 SV, 4 Holds, 2 Wins, 0 losses and 1 BS. In other words, almost the entire difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox seasons can be attributed to the difference in the first half results of Aceves and Soriano.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

How is this true at all? In the absense of Rivera the Yankees were able to turn to Rafael Soriano, who is a $10 million a year insurance policy that the Yankees can afford and other teams can't. But, he's also got 23 SV, 4 Holds, 2 Wins, 0 losses and 1 BS. In other words, almost the entire difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox seasons can be attributed to the difference in the first half results of Aceves and Soriano.

That's a pretty big overstatement, as the Sox are 9 1/2 out and there's no math that pins that on Aceves unless you're double-counting the losses and blown saves (3 or 4 of them were the same games).

It's also inaccurate as the Yankees were paying "proven closer" Soriano $10 million to be a setup man. Soriano was also a "proven closer" for only 2 years before the Yankees signed him, which is one fewer years closing than "proven closer" Joe Borowski had over the course of his career.

Aceves has the same number of saves as Soriano and Papelbon, interestingly enough. Obviously he's got more BS and losses. And paying Papelbon stupid money hasn't kept the Phillies from being in last place.

[joe dokes]

How is this true at all? In the absense of Rivera the Yankees were able to turn to Rafael Soriano, who is a $10 million a year insurance policy that the Yankees can afford and other teams can't. But, he's also got 23 SV, 4 Holds, 2 Wins, 0 losses and 1 BS. In other words, almost the entire difference between the Yankees and the Red Sox seasons can be attributed to the difference in the first half results of Aceves and Soriano.

Doesn't mean you dont need good pitchers. Soriano is a better pitcher than Aceves this year. It has nothing to do with their "closer-ness."

[lexrageorge]

Aceves: 3 blown saves where he was tagged with the loss, 1 where he left the game tied and wasn't charged with the eventual loss, and 3 losses where he entered the game in a tie. Basically, 7 losses can be tagged to Aceves.

Rivera/Soriano combined: 1 blown save by Mariano that led to a loss, 1 blown save by Soriano, a game in which the Yankees won in the bottom of the 9th anyway. So, technically it's a 6 game difference.

Even that comparison is not totally accurate. The Sox offense did not bail out Aceves at all in 3 of those losses, which were at home. And one of the losses was in extra innings on the road where Aceves pitched 2.1 innings. Whereas Soriano was bailed out once by the Yankees offense.

Rivera/Soriano have combined for all of one 4-out save. Aceves has had 7 outings where he's completed 4 or more outs, including 3 4-out saves.

[trekfan55]

When a closer goes down, some teams are lucky enough to have a pitcher who can immediately step into the role, and some are not.

In the case of the Red Sox, I would guess they more lucky than not. As an interesting example, the Nationals lost Drew Storen and stumbled between Henry Rodriguez and Brad Lidge (talk about "proven closers") who is no longer with the team, before settling on Tyler Clippard.

When the Yankees signed Soriano (over Cashman's objections) it was specifically so they could have insurance against a Mariano Rivera injury and it paid off, since David Roberston got injured and has not been effective in his return.

Once Bailey is ready to return, he should get the closer's job back sooner rather than later. There will be plenty for Aceves to help the team win and I would guess he will be in the mix for the starting rotation next year.

[czar]

Aceves ranks 98/136 in RP xFIP for relievers with >= 30 IP. 114/136 in WPA (-0.41). Worst xFIP of any current Sox reliever (mercifully Justin Thomas is long gone).

His K/9 by month is: 10.3, 9.6, 7.5, 4.1.

I will admit that he has actually made some impressive strides in the SwStr% department (likely due to the improved fastball velocity), but that doesn't change the fact that Andrew Bailey needs to be this team's closer when he's ready. The fact that Aceves has a rubber arm and go multiple innings should further solidify that decision.