86 replies to this topic

[TheYellowDart5]

Source: The Red Sox are aggressive in the pursuit of Ryan Dempster. Cubs going through their process on the right-hander.

https://twitter.com/...983727300816896

[Rasputin]

I can only hope this means that they're really being assholes on the phone rather than offering a whole lot.

[Green Monster]

Great........another trade with the Cubs........Ben should offer Chris Carpenter, he was significant a few months ago

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This had better be Ben doing Theo a solid and letting him use the Red Sox to leverage a better package out of some other sucker (Dodgers?). Because the last thing Ben should be doing is "aggressively" pursuing a trade for Ryan Dempster.

[saintnick912]

This seems like it would be a classic case of buying high. Which I wouldn't be shocked at anymore. I would get to use the #dumpster hashtag in my twitter though, and tags with extra u's have been in short supply since #bobbyjunks left town.

[Ed Hillel]

So how many home runs to Kalish and Lavarnway combined hit for the Cubs next year? 40?

[Remagellan]

Does this mean that they are planning on using a seven man rotation?

[Harry Hooper]

Apparently Dempster's name is already included on LL's "varsity" list.


Edit: If Olney's report is accurate, what is the motive? Given Gammons' comments last week, maybe the motive is Lester is getting moved and Dempster plugs into the rotation as a veteran presence once Lester is gone. Ugh.

Edited by Harry Hooper, 16 July 2012 - 05:20 PM.

[snowmanny]

This seems like it would be a classic case of buying high. Which I wouldn't be shocked at anymore. I would get to use the #dumpster
hashtag in my twitter though, and tags with extra u's have been in short supply since #bobbyjunks left town.

Buying high worked with Jeff Suppan. Oh, wait.

[Kull]

*facepalm*

[Koufax]

No to the seven man rotation. They will slim it down by trading Beckett and Lester for Dumpster. The Sox will absorb most of the salaries of B&L so that Theo will pick up the phone the next time Ben calls with an offer.

[Cellar-Door]

Great........another trade with the Cubs........Ben should offer Chris Carpenter, he was significant a few months ago

I think I'd rather have fake Chris Carpenter.

[uncannymanny]

When does Ben start driving down Lansdowne towing the WS trophy?

[someoneanywhere]

This had better be Ben doing Theo a solid and letting him use the Red Sox to leverage a better package out of some other sucker.

Well, if this is the case, I want significant compensation.

[HriniakPosterChild]

No to the seven man rotation. They will slim it down by trading Beckett and Lester for Dumpster. The Sox will absorb most of the salaries of B&L so that Theo will pick up the phone the next time Ben calls with an offer.

Beckett has 5/10 rights. How much does it cost to get those waived?

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

This cannot not fail.

[bloodysox]

Bogaerts and Barnes for Dempster... wouldn't shock me anymore.

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

The man with a 1.02 WHIP this year will not regress to his career 1.43 WHIP, especially when one factors in switching leagues . Renting a guy of his stature while at his highest possible value may be the dumbest move conceivable.

[lexrageorge]

Please Mr. Cherington, please do not let this become your Jeff Bagwell moment.

[Fratboy]

Hey guys, how about a little more signal, less noise? Otherwise it's gonna get real ugly here over the next two weeks.

[MikeM]

Is this the same "aggressive pursuit" that the media essentially defaulted on us with pretty much every notable free agent last winter, minus Pujols/Fiedler?

The memo really needs to go out already in regards to Theo spending away all this franchise's flexibility, and the aftermath reality that we've officially vacated our lesser evil spot behind the MFY. The days of "the Sox have big $$$ and unlimited resources, therefore they must be players" are over fellas. Let it go....

(although as i typed that, a vague picture of LL sitting in his office screaming "i'll show everybody! In it to win it!!!" to anybody who would listen admittedly started running through my head)

[JMDurron]

It's obviously difficult to read much into a twitter blurb, but let's parse this a bit.

1) It's Buster Olney, whose contacts in the Red Sox FO might or might not be particularly well established. My impression is that he's historically reported on Red Sox-related transactions based on information coming from sources outside of Boston. Perhaps I could be corrected on that.

2) #1 informing my premise, think about the tone of the first sentence. It reads like a "pump up his market" question, as opposed to an "in it to win it" quote. I would expect the latter to read more along the lines of "The Red Sox have been aggressive in pursuit of a potential upgrade to their rotation", followed by naming Liriano, Dempster, and James Shields.

3) The second sentence just drives it home for me that this is from a Cubs angle. I'd paraphrase it as "Despite the aggressive, desperately high offers being put forward by the Red Sox, the Cubs are carefully and deliberately going through the available options for a Ryan Dempster package."

Both the source and the content say "Cubs source" to me, which I think means that we need to take it with a huge grain of salt. It doesn't necessarily make it inaccurate, but it's written in such a way, by a source that raises my warning flags.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Fuck this. Giving up anything more than Brent Lillibridge for Dempster should result in pitchforks and torches on Yawkey Way.

Theo must love having LL as a mark rather than a boss.

[dcmissle]

I am looking for a sweet spot -- do nothing. A baseball stand-down.

I was originally fearful of "break them up" because I have little or no faith in the people who would be selling off the pieces. That's one reason why 1.5 off the WC, 4 off the traditional WC, made me happy. A yard sale is unthinkable.

This now scares the hell out of me because I have even less faith in these same people swapping out young pieces for veteran ones. They have consistently effed up almost everything of late. Please stand down, do no harm. For once navel-gazing is in order.

[4-6-3]

It's obviously difficult to read much into a twitter blurb, but let's parse this a bit.

1) It's Buster Olney, whose contacts in the Red Sox FO might or might not be particularly well established. My impression is that he's historically reported on Red Sox-related transactions based on information coming from sources outside of Boston. Perhaps I could be corrected on that.

2) #1 informing my premise, think about the tone of the first sentence. It reads like a "pump up his market" question, as opposed to an "in it to win it" quote. I would expect the latter to read more along the lines of "The Red Sox have been aggressive in pursuit of a potential upgrade to their rotation", followed by naming Liriano, Dempster, and James Shields.

3) The second sentence just drives it home for me that this is from a Cubs angle. I'd paraphrase it as "Despite the aggressive, desperately high offers being put forward by the Red Sox, the Cubs are carefully and deliberately going through the available options for a Ryan Dempster package."

Both the source and the content say "Cubs source" to me, which I think means that we need to take it with a huge grain of salt. It doesn't necessarily make it inaccurate, but it's written in such a way, by a source that raises my warning flags.

I agree that it rings a Cubs source. I don't see the Sox giving up a lot for Dempster. Is he going to displace Beckett, Lester or Buch - not. Does Dempster replace Morales, Cook or Dubront? Given what you'd have to give up, I'd still go with Cook and Morales.

I think it's just Cub noise in driving up the market for Dempster.

[yecul]

Keeping tabs on the situation to make sure he isn't sold on the cheap is wise. It could easily be misinterpreted or leaked as "aggressive" for various reasons.

Actually being aggressive would be another notch in BC's failure belt.

My bet is that this is legit and it's an order that BC is carrying out. Whether it pans out, we'll see.

[Plympton91]

I agree that it rings a Cubs source. I don't see the Sox giving up a lot for Dempster. Is he going to displace Beckett, Lester or Buch - not. Does Dempster replace Morales, Cook or Dubront? Given what you'd have to give up, I'd still go with Cook and Morales.

I think it's just Cub noise in driving up the market for Dempster.

I'm hopeful that Cook's third solid performance will put a stop to this insanity. I am happy to be wrong on Cook. He's throwing 90-91 easily and seems like a new man out of Colorado. If you ignore his past two seasons, and given the stuff he's showing that seems reasonable, then he's as good, if not better than Dempster.

But, there is the very real possibility that they'd like to shut down Doubront to limit his innings and move Morales back to the pen. Miller has regressed to a loogy, and Hill seems an afterthought. No mention of Matsuzaka resuming a throwing regimen either, and he'd be one to logically take on such a role as well.

So, the 6 starters could quickly become 4 in mid-August. Getting a proven veteran TM is not crazy, provided the price is right. Lin and Kurtz would be acceptable though likely not to the Cubs.

[bosockboy]

I think they'd love the fifth starter to be a combo of Cook and Morales, with Doubront eased back into the pen. Cook/Morales could be a long guy also as they share the 5th spot. I don't see Dice-K coming back...if healthy then traded.

They do need another SP....and probably see Dempster having the most impact for the least cost in prospects.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think they'd love the fifth starter to be a combo of Cook and Morales, with Doubront eased back into the pen. Cook/Morales could be a long guy also as they share the 5th spot. I don't see Dice-K coming back...if healthy then traded.

They do need another SP....and probably see Dempster having the most impact for the least cost in prospects.

Why do you need to add 1.5 guys to a bullpen that's doing fabulously, just to create a factitious need for a starter who will cost too much?

[bosox79]

Not to mention there are in house options at MR.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

AlexSpeier:

More on Dempster: A major league source said that the #redsox aren't actively pursuing him at this point weei.com/sports/boston/… via @WEEI

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I'm hopeful that Cook's third solid performance will put a stop to this insanity. I am happy to be wrong on Cook. He's throwing 90-91 easily and seems like a new man out of Colorado. If you ignore his past two seasons, and given the stuff he's showing that seems reasonable, then he's as good, if not better than Dempster.

Aaron Cook has thrown 29.2 innings as a Red Sox this year and has two strikeouts. TWO. Of course he's only got 2 walks so he's certainly not putting extra guys on base, but there's no earthly way he's going to continue having success by striking out only 2 batters every 30 innings.

Dempster sucks and would be a disastrous option for this club, but not because Aaron Cook is awesome. He's been exceptionally lucky (.248 BABIP). If he continues to allow so many balls in play he's going to get pounded. I'm happy to have ridden his lucky streak so far, but counting on it to continue seems misguided to me.

[smastroyin]

Yeah, I don't think Cook is going to continue to do so well, but he is also getting ground balls at a pretty high rate. Not sure if he will be able to keep that up. I was really close to the plate for his start in Youks last Sox game and I still have no idea how the Braves weren't pounding the everloving crap out of him - but they weren't.

[Titoschew]

Aaron Cook has thrown 29.2 innings as a Red Sox this year and has two strikeouts. TWO. Of course he's only got 2 walks so he's certainly not putting extra guys on base, but there's no earthly way he's going to continue having success by striking out only 2 batters every 30 innings.

Dempster sucks and would be a disastrous option for this club, but not because Aaron Cook is awesome. He's been exceptionally lucky (.248 BABIP). If he continues to allow so many balls in play he's going to get pounded. I'm happy to have ridden his lucky streak so far, but counting on it to continue seems misguided to me.

Well said. We can only hope some other team is "aggressively" pursuing Aaron Cook.

[joe dokes]

Aaron Cook has thrown 29.2 innings as a Red Sox this year and has two strikeouts. TWO. Of course he's only got 2 walks so he's certainly not putting extra guys on base, but there's no earthly way he's going to continue having success by striking out only 2 batters every 30 innings.

Dempster sucks and would be a disastrous option for this club, but not because Aaron Cook is awesome. He's been exceptionally lucky (.248 BABIP). If he continues to allow so many balls in play he's going to get pounded. I'm happy to have ridden his lucky streak so far, but counting on it to continue seems misguided to me.

I think there have some revisions to the BABIP/pitching analyses that suggest that extreme GB pitchers may be able to get away with abnormally low K-rates. If Cook can keep going at or above his career 60% (last night's was 75%) AND not walk anyone, he might remain viable. If the only baserunner are on base hits, then even a normal .300 BABIP is survivable.

Edited by joe dokes, 17 July 2012 - 07:58 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There's low K rates, and then there's Cook. No way can anyone survive on a K rate of 0.6/9.

[lexrageorge]

The question with Cook is: Can the team live with the guy being the 5th starter/super-sub role for the next 3 months of the season? Basically, can they rely on him to reduce the workload of Doubront or Morales, give one of the other starters an extra day of rest, and be a fill-in in case someone has to skip a start? Is he necessarily any worse than pitchers playing similar roles on other teams?

Yes, there probably will be some regression to the mean as the BABIP mistress catches up to him. But can they live with that? Keep in mind that if Bailey returns in a few weeks, they could also use Aceves as a spot starter.

Sure, if the Phillies were willing to accept Lars Anderson for Cole Hammels, the team jumps on it. But, unless the team is planning to move one of their top 3 starters, I'm not sure it makes sense to overpay for a middling 4/5 pitcher just so they can replace Aaron Cook.

[bosockboy]

Why do you need to add 1.5 guys to a bullpen that's doing fabulously, just to create a factitious need for a starter who will cost too much?

Innings limits for Doubront. Lack of faith that Cook/Morales can succeed long term.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So how many home runs to Kalish and Lavarnway combined hit for the Cubs next year? 40?

Add in Rizzo, too....

This is just a terrible, terrible idea. Sure the Sox will need additional starters, but isn't that the reason they've stocked up on 9 of them already?

1. Beckett
2. Lester
3. Buchholz
4. (Lackey)
5. (Matsuzaka)
6. Doubront
7. Morales
8. Cook
9. Stewart

I would be far, far happier should the Sox acquire Joe Blanton -- and I hate Joe Blanton.

[David Laurila]

The team obviously shouldn't overpay for him, but along with being a solid big-league pitcher, Dempster would add a positive presence to the clubhouse. Just how valuable that might be is a matter of question, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Innings limits for Doubront. Lack of faith that Cook/Morales can succeed long term.

Fair enough. I guess I'm more bullish on Morales than you are. Dice-K is also a wild card. If we really think he won't give us anything the rest of the way, then the case for adding a starter becomes stronger--but only if you could get him with a package of stalled or blocked prospects, guys like Stolmy, Lin and Vitek. If we give up any of the four B's or Lavarnway for somebody like Dempster, I'm gonna break stuff.

[ShaneTrot]

I have no confidence in Cherrington to make a good deal at this point. I know it's early but the Reddick trade is brutal. He is the sixth highest rated position player by WAR in the AL. He has a better arm than anyone in our system. He is a plus defender. How much will we hate this trade in 2014 when Beane trades him to the MFY and he hits 40 HR a year in the toilet? How many more wins would the Sox have if Reddick was the full time RF this year?

I want the Sox to run up the price for everyone else. Does anyone have confidence that Dempster can pitch in the AL East? We need to come out of this season younger and cheaper, not older and more expensive.

[joe dokes]

I know it's early but the Reddick trade is brutal. He is the sixth highest rated position player by WAR in the AL. He has a better arm than anyone in our system. He is a plus defender. How many more wins would the Sox have if Reddick was the full time RF this year?

Apropos of nothing . .....with the bases empty Reddick is Manny Ramirez (1.033). With men on, he's Manny Alexander (.644).
Just another SSS oddity.
http://www.baseball-...1&year=2012&t=b

[smastroyin]

the problem with Morales is this (combined totals):

2007: 152 IP
2008: 135.2 IP
2009: 81.1 IP
2010: 59 IP
2011: 52.2 IP
2012: 51.1 IP

Not sure what we can really expect going forward. He's young enough that maybe something clicked but I'm not sure we should expect him to throw another 70 innings this year.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

I'm hopeful that Cook's third solid performance will put a stop to this insanity. I am happy to be wrong on Cook. He's throwing 90-91 easily and seems like a new man out of Colorado. If you ignore his past two seasons, and given the stuff he's showing that seems reasonable, then he's as good, if not better than Dempster.

Wait, so we've fallen so far around here that conventional wisdom is Dempster will revert to his career averages (and that's a bad thing), but Cook's "Strike out fewer this season than a position player" high-wire act is sustainable? We need a collective vacation.

Dempster's awkwardness and generally "all-around average"-ness seems to get under people's skin, but that type of player is a pretty good insurance policy for a team like the Sox. Even acknowledging that the NL Central is traditionally soft, he's a 4-FIP/xFIP guy who's eaten 200 IP each of the last 4 years, w/ a GB/FB of 1.25.

The Sox have leaned heavily on the bullpen early, and could use some certainty in the back end of the rotation - there are legitimate questions as to workload for Morales/Dubront, and general midnight-striking on Cook (check out his LD/BABIP suppression this year in comparison with career ...). It's clear the market has adjusted to account for the new CBA, and a bidding war is far less likely than with somebody like Garza - sure, it's not Greinke or another high-impact move, but there's definitely an argument for getting a consistent, average guy for a team in the position of the Red Sox.

[glennhoffmania]

Why do you need to add 1.5 guys to a bullpen that's doing fabulously, just to create a factitious need for a starter who will cost too much?

Exactly. Plus hopefully Bard comes back to the pen at some point. This team doesn't need another 5th starter. They need the top 3 starters to pitch better and there are internal options for the last 2 spots. Giving up anything of value for Dempster would be a horrible move. Plus he'd be owerd about $5 for the rest of the season. There has to be a better use for that money.

[joe dokes]

Exactly. Plus hopefully Bard comes back to the pen at some point. This team doesn't need another 5th starter. They need the top 3 starters to pitch better and there are internal options for the last 2 spots. Giving up anything of value for Dempster would be a horrible move. Plus he'd be owerd about $5 for the rest of the season. There has to be a better use for that money.

That's about 90% of it. If Lester, Beckett and Buchholz pitch to what were reasonable expectations, the 3 of Cook, Morales adn Doubront can adequately take care of the rest of the rotation for the rest of the season, IMO.

If Lester, Beckett and Buchholz don't, then it doesn't matter what else they add to the staff. (unless its one of the few sure-thing starters out there,and that isn't likely happening.

[trekfan55]

First of all, everyone thought that DiceK coming back from TJS would provide a big help to the rotation (the equivalent of a mid season trade) and it didn't. At this point no one should be counting on him for anything.

Second, Doubront and Morales are pretty good, but the innings limit question is there.

Third, Cook may be doing his job, but we all know his numbers are not sustainable.

So the Sox should be kicking the tires on any available decent starter. When the guy in the other end starts asking for too much they should just say "nevermind" and hang up.

And about Reddick: Let's be fair, we had already seen plenty of him, did anyone really imagine he'd have the kind of year he's having? And, the rotten luck of Andrew Bailey falling on his thumb in ST excacerbates things.

Edited by trekfan55, 17 July 2012 - 12:42 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

First of all, everyone thought that DiceK coming back from TJS would provide a big help to the rotation (the equivalent of a mid season trade) and it didn't.

Sorry, can't let this go unchallenged. I think you'd be hard-pressed to prove that even a simple majority of fans thought Dice-K would be a "big help to the rotation" when he came back.

As for Dempster, I'm in the No camp because he's an older rental who will cost at least one decent prospect and would have to be overpaid to keep him around next season.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And about Reddick: Let's be fair, we had already seen plenty of him, did anyone really imagine he'd have the kind of year he's having?

Well....yes, some of us did.