137 replies to this topic

[mabrowndog]

Gordon Edes via Twitter

Valentine confirms the obvious: Crawford rejoins club Monday., "Just got the word from Carl. Carl says he'll be there tomorrow.''

He'll have to come off the 60-day DL, meaning someone's coming off the 40-man. Perhaps this is where Sweeney gets dealt?

[bosockboy]

I would say DFA Gomez but their corner IF depth is razor thin. Seems like a Sweeney trade makes the most sense.

[Lose Remerswaal]

If Nava hadn't hit a HR today, I'd expect him to be going (assuming they don't have a deal for Sweeney already set up). With the HR, they may try to keep him as the #5 OF for awhile.

[E5 Yaz]

Nava would only clear a spot on the active roster, though. He still could be the one to go back to Pawtucket, but the 40-man spot is harder to predict.

As for Crawford, might as well see what he has. As he himself has said, the elbow could go at anytime. The first serious throw on a ball off the wall will be the first test

[The Gray Eagle]

Lillibridge is the worst player on the roster, he's the one who needs to go. He doesn't do anything well, and it would be foolish to keep him and send down Nava, who gets on base, takes walks, works counts and is a switch hitter. This lineup is loaded with hackers and outmakers, we need more guys on the team who walk, not less of them.

[Plympton91]

Eyeballing it, over the 2010 and 2012 stints with the Red Sox, it seems like Nava has an OBP-heavy OPS of about 810 against right-handed pitchers. That smooths through the hot streaks and slumps, and is roughly consistent with what I'd eyeball his MLE as suggesting (again, using stats vs. righthanders only). This strikes me as extraordinary for a backup outfielder who is competent defensively.

Cody Ross' 3-year splits vs. righthanders show a slugging heavy 720 OPS, and this year he's logging in at about 750. Given that Ross has played a passable CF, I'd guess the Sox would be better off eating the difference in OPS for Ross to patrol RF at Fenway. But against a RHer on the road, I'd go with Nava.

The other comparison is Sweeney to Nava. Given how abundantly snakebitten by injury this team is, they almost have to just send Nava back to Pawtucket for a month and half and keep Sweeney on the roster. That also alleviates the perceived pressure they're under to trade Sweeney, allows him to get some at bats under his belt, and maybe makes it more likely they can extract a C+ prospect -- maybe a RH hitting tweener OF with options to complement Nava's ability to hit lefties -- at the deadline.

[Plympton91]

Lillibridge is the worst player on the roster, he's the one who needs to go. He doesn't do anything well, and it would be foolish to keep him and send down Nava, who gets on base, takes walks, works counts and is a switch hitter. This lineup is loaded with hackers and outmakers, we need more guys on the team who walk, not less of them.

Who's the backup firstbaseman in that scenario? You'd almost have to put Ortiz there if Gonzalez went down mid-game, losing the DH or expose Ortiz for the whole game if he needed a day off to due Gonzo's now injured back.

Another reason trading Youkilis was dumb, and trading him for Lillibridge was dumber.

[ShaneTrot]

What are people's feelings on how Crawford will play? Is he healthy enough to play? Will he play for two weeks and then need TJ?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Who's the backup firstbaseman in that scenario? You'd almost have to put Ortiz there if Gonzalez went down mid-game, losing the DH or expose Ortiz for the whole game if he needed a day off to due Gonzo's now injured back.

Another reason trading Youkilis was dumb, and trading him for Lillibridge was dumber.

Saltalamacchia has played some first base in his career, and I'm pretty sure Punto took some innings at first in spring training as a possible "break glass" option.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Eyeballing it, over the 2010 and 2012 stints with the Red Sox, it seems like Nava has an OBP-heavy OPS of about 810 against right-handed pitchers. That smooths through the hot streaks and slumps, and is roughly consistent with what I'd eyeball his MLE as suggesting (again, using stats vs. righthanders only). This strikes me as extraordinary for a backup outfielder who is competent defensively.

Cody Ross' 3-year splits vs. righthanders show a slugging heavy 720 OPS, and this year he's logging in at about 750. Given that Ross has played a passable CF, I'd guess the Sox would be better off eating the difference in OPS for Ross to patrol RF at Fenway. But against a RHer on the road, I'd go with Nava.

The other comparison is Sweeney to Nava. Given how abundantly snakebitten by injury this team is, they almost have to just send Nava back to Pawtucket for a month and half and keep Sweeney on the roster. That also alleviates the perceived pressure they're under to trade Sweeney, allows him to get some at bats under his belt, and maybe makes it more likely they can extract a C+ prospect -- maybe a RH hitting tweener OF with options to complement Nava's ability to hit lefties -- at the deadline.

That's all well and good, but again, where's the spot on the 40 man going to come from?

[knucklecup]

Ortiz can't own up for a game or two?

[Al Zarilla]

What are people's feelings on how Crawford will play? Is he healthy enough to play? Will he play for two weeks and then need TJ?

If there was ever a question whose answer is "we'll just have to wait and see", this is it.

[Rudy Pemberton]

As far as getting him on the 40-man, can you move Dice-K to the 60 day DL? If not, I'd suspect a trade of Sweeney or Podsednik, or they drop Gomez.

[Plympton91]

That's all well and good, but again, where's the spot on the 40 man going to come from?

I figure tomorrow morning someone will come down with SARS, making the point moot.

Hopefully, they think Salty and Punto are o.k. for break glass options at 1B and DFA Lillibridge. They could also DFA Ciriaco, and play Punto at 2B until Pedroia comes back on Thursday. At which point, they'll have an A lineup on the field for the first time all season.

[bosockboy]

As far as getting him on the 40-man, can you move Dice-K to the 60 day DL? If not, I'd suspect a trade of Sweeney or Podsednik, or they drop Gomez.

Can Podsednik be traded on the DL? If they think Nava could be a break glass option at 1B (or Punto) you could DFA Gomez. I bet there's a Sweeney deal lined up, though.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Can Podsednik be traded on the DL? If they think Nava could be a break glass option at 1B (or Punto) you could DFA Gomez. I bet there's a Sweeney deal lined up, though.

Podsednik is not on the DL. He's been optioned to Pawtucket via some loophole in his contract. So he can be traded with no reservations...but who would want him?

[uncannymanny]

Doesn't the move have to be a Lillebridge or Gomez DFA or Dice to the 60 day? None of these guys are going to give you much of anything until September, if at all, though I suppose I see the 1B issue w/r/t Lillebridge.

Getting rid of Nava would be tremendously foolish, IMO. He's exactly the kind of guy you want as a 4th/5th OF.

Unless there's a deal for Sweeney in place (I cannot begin to venture what they might get for him. I suppose another ml relief pitcher), or Dice-K gets moved to the 60 day, DFA Gomez as he doesn't seem to add much value anywhere.

[trekfan55]

Podsednik is not on the DL. He's been optioned to Pawtucket via some loophole in his contract. So he can be traded with no reservations...but who would want him?

Podsednik was traded for by the Sox before. And he played to a "not bad" level enough to get something more than a bag of balls.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Podsednik was traded for by the Sox before. And he played to a "not bad" level enough to get something more than a bag of balls.

I would say he played well enough for someone to want him, but not necessarily well enough for someone to give anything up for him.

[trekfan55]

I would say he played well enough for someone to want him, but not necessarily well enough for someone to give anything up for him.

True. Like I said, something slightly more than a bag of balls. Who knows?

[geoduck no quahog]

Doesn't it all depend on what a trade partner offers?

Sweeney vs. Nava: it's not about which guy is better for the team right now. It's about what each guy could bring in return. They both have positive traits that are useful to the Red Sox as well as a potential matching team.

Podsednik is in a different class. Closer to Lillebridge than to Sweeney, albeit he is also a useful and serviceable bench player.

Ciriaco's play in the infield has made Lillebridge a bit of a luxury, and it is doubtful that Pedro brings anything of value in a trade.

My money? Lillebridge goes first, followed by Nava. Ciriaco and Sweeney remain as insurance against Crawford/Pedroia/Ellsbury. Nava goes because he brings more back to the Red Sox.

Where would that put Posednik?

Edited by geoduck no quahog, 16 July 2012 - 04:25 AM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

As far as getting him on the 40-man, can you move Dice-K to the 60 day DL? If not, I'd suspect a trade of Sweeney or Podsednik, or they drop Gomez.

I guess so, but at that point you might as well release him since his contract is up at the end of the year anyway. But he's only got a tweaked neck, so I'm sure the plan is to try to get him back in the rotation sooner, rather than later, so that it would make no sense to move him to the 60 of DFA him

[OCD SS]

If there was a trade of an OFer lined up it probably would've happened right away. With all the OFers they already have between the minors and the ML club there's no way they reduce their already thin IF depth when Crawford comes back. My guess is a Posednik DFA.

[Lose Remerswaal]

That makes sense to me, but considering how many boo boos CC has had, it wouldn't surprise me if they waited for him to have his shoes and hat on before activating him, and have a trade ready to go.

Or that they DL Sweeney.

[lexrageorge]

DL'ing Sweeney doesn't help the 40-man roster issue.

Ciriaco is probably on the 40-man to stay, especially with the possibility that Pedroia could be battling hand injury issues this season.

Nava's going nowhere until the last week of the non-waiver trading deadline, if then.

The Sox will not DFA Lillibridge, especially with Youkilis coming to town. That just looks bad, and this is an image obsessed front office.

So, chances are that either Podsednik or Gomez are DFA'd. There's a chance they could get Gomez through and get him to accept an assignment to AAA on a minor league deal. Moving Dice-K to the 60-day DL is another logical choice, as I just don't see him having a role on this team anymore. However, starting pitching is still one of those commodities where surpluses tend to be fleeting, so I tend to discount this possibility.

EDIT: Woops!!

Edited by lexrageorge, 16 July 2012 - 03:09 PM.

[uncannymanny]

Dice K went on the DL on 7/3. Moving him to the 60 day makes him eligible to return just around roster expansion time. I really think this makes the most sense. Allows the team to keep valuable depth in Sweeney and not DFA any of the other guys. He's coming off TJ and prompty landed himself back on the DL. Yes, he's a SP, but rushing him back doesn't seem like it's going to help him or the team. Let him rest his elbow for a possible stretch run and free up his roster spot until then.

Or DFA Gomez' useless corpse.

[Eric Van]

I think there are two possibilities:

1) Sweeney trade.

2) DFA Podsednik, and option Nava to play RF for ten days, after which Sweeney is probably traded and Nava recalled. Nava and Ross then platoon pretty strictly in RF on the road, while at home Ross gets all the PT vs LHP and about half of it versus RHP (those with below-average splits).

Option 2 makes much more sense because it covers your butt in case of a re-injury to Ells or CC, and gives you time to hire somebody to kneecap Lillibridge.

[The Gray Eagle]

Thankfully they went with option 3: get rid of the worst player on the roster instead of somebody better.

[shepard50]

According to Didier Mirais, beat writer for NESN, "@DidierMorais: Brent Lillibridge's locker is empty, looks like he's the corresponding move that comes with Crawford's return"

[Kull]

The return of Crawford and Youkilis to Boston tonight? They should just bring in the trapeze artists and the clowns and get it over with.

[JMDurron]

Looks like we have multiple good signs from tonight's obscenely small sample.

1) Stupendous BABIP luck on his first hit, to get a guy who can apparently psyche himself out a bit started on a positive note
2) A very hard hit line drive out that was right at the RF. I don't recall a whole lot of balls being hit with that kind of authority last season, I'll take a loud out if it indicates an ability to make loud non-outs in the immediate future
3) A walk, and a key, late-inning walk at that. Against a left-handed pitcher!
4) After Youk's fall ball down the LF line bounced to him, he casually threw the ball into the stands. It wasn't a full-bore throw to try to hit a runner at home plate, but given the hysteria involving his throwing ability, I'll take even small indications that he might not actually be set to self destruct in 30 seconds.

Just good signs at this point (particularly #3, IMO), but considering that I was expecting him to suck right out of the gate at least until he got used to facing MLB pitching again, he exceeded my expectations even in this admittedly small sample.

[mfried]

Looks like we have multiple good signs from tonight's obscenely small sample.

1) Stupendous BABIP luck on his first hit, to get a guy who can apparently psyche himself out a bit started on a positive note
2) A very hard hit line drive out that was right at the RF. I don't recall a whole lot of balls being hit with that kind of authority last season, I'll take a loud out if it indicates an ability to make loud non-outs in the immediate future
3) A walk, and a key, late-inning walk at that. Against a left-handed pitcher!
4) After Youk's fall ball down the LF line bounced to him, he casually threw the ball into the stands. It wasn't a full-bore throw to try to hit a runner at home plate, but given the hysteria involving his throwing ability, I'll take even small indications that he might not actually be set to self destruct in 30 seconds.

Just good signs at this point (particularly #3, IMO), but considering that I was expecting him to suck right out of the gate at least until he got used to facing MLB pitching again, he exceeded my expectations even in this admittedly small sample.

Crawford looked relaxed and confident at the plate. He even seemed oriented in relation to the strike zone. Unless he runs into devastatingly demoralizing pitching he will be a different player. Even on the base paths he looked comfortable.

[sachilles]

His speed on the bases was a welcome sight. With the return of someone to Fenway that gathered more attention than Crawford, I'd speculate that took a little pressure off of him. With Ortiz having the Achilles issue, I'll be curious to see if they pencil in Crawford at DH, or whether they want him getting back in the swing of things in the field.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Have to admit that I felt a little bad for him, actually. Youk's return gets a standing O (deservedly, but it's still an opposing player), while Crawford comes to bat for the first time all season and gets what i would call a smattering of applause (and maybe some boos?).

Would have been nice to see the Fenway crowd try to give him a boost of support.

[someoneanywhere]

My sense watching on MLB.TV was that the ovation for Crawford was actually pretty decent -- not a standing ovation (exactly what did he do to deserve one, though?) but certainly warm and appreciative if not thunderous.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Maybe you're right - hard to know without being there. Watching on NESN it just seemed like it went largely unnoticed. Even after the hit, just sort of your normal, everyday, nothing special kind of response.

I guess I've decided I like the guy and hope more of the fanbase embraces him. Watching him take off on the 3-2 pitch and go first to third on Papi's single reminded me of what a dynamic player he could be.

[Dick Pole Upside]

His speed on the bases was a welcome sight. With the return of someone to Fenway that gathered more attention than Crawford, I'd speculate that took a little pressure off of him. With Ortiz having the Achilles issue, I'll be curious to see if they pencil in Crawford at DH, or whether they want him getting back in the swing of things in the field.

I actually think he's the type of guy that would prefer to be in the field and stay engaged athletically (running, catching, throwing) rather than hitting into a net between at-bats. I don't think the DH provides any marginal benefit vis-a-vis his elbow, so I say trot him out to LF. Can DH Nava or even Ciriaco when Pedroia comes back Thursday if Papi is still out.

[absintheofmalaise]

Looks like we have multiple good signs from tonight's obscenely small sample.

1) Stupendous BABIP luck on his first hit, to get a guy who can apparently psyche himself out a bit started on a positive note
2) A very hard hit line drive out that was right at the RF. I don't recall a whole lot of balls being hit with that kind of authority last season, I'll take a loud out if it indicates an ability to make loud non-outs in the immediate future
3) A walk, and a key, late-inning walk at that. Against a left-handed pitcher!
4) After Youk's fall ball down the LF line bounced to him, he casually threw the ball into the stands. It wasn't a full-bore throw to try to hit a runner at home plate, but given the hysteria involving his throwing ability, I'll take even small indications that he might not actually be set to self destruct in 30 seconds.

Just good signs at this point (particularly #3, IMO), but considering that I was expecting him to suck right out of the gate at least until he got used to facing MLB pitching again, he exceeded my expectations even in this admittedly small sample.

The biggest difference I saw last night was that his batting stance is totally different than it was last year. It's almost closed now which should help him see the ball better and to cover a lot more of the plate and drive the ball with more authority. I didn't get a screen shot of him from last night, but it looks like his front foot is at least a foot closer to the plate than it used to be.

Mark Simon, of ESPN, posted this heat map comparing the 2010 Crawford to the 2011 Crawford. If he sticks with the same stance, he should be much closer to the 2010 Crawford at the plate.

[JMDurron]

Have to admit that I felt a little bad for him, actually. Youk's return gets a standing O (deservedly, but it's still an opposing player), while Crawford comes to bat for the first time all season and gets what i would call a smattering of applause (and maybe some boos?).

Would have been nice to see the Fenway crowd try to give him a boost of support.

You just can't expect much from the crowd for a very high-priced player who has accomplished nothing in a Red Sox uniform so far, particularly on a night where the featured event was Youk's return. Perhaps if the story was Crawford's return with no other event occurring, you would have had more of a response, but I don't think it necessarily would have been a positive one.

[Adrian's Dome]

Does anyone have any screen caps of his stance last night vs. 2011? I'm curious to see if it looked any more closed or not. He seemed a bit more balanced than I remember last year, but it could just be because he had positive results for the day.

[trekfan55]

Carl Crawford signed a 142MM contract and played horribly in his first year.

His last play in 2011 was a missed catch that lost his team the game, and a playoff spot (yes, I know it's not his fault that the Sox missed the playoffs last year but that was the last memory I had of him in a Sox uniform, not pretty).

He then admitted to being injured most of the year, and needed surgery.

He also got an injured elbow on top of his already injured wrist and had to be shut down.

Then when he is almost ready to come back he starts going on about needing TJS probably, maybe...

And the fans should give him a thunderous ovation why?

Not advocating boos BTW, but a normal reception is what he should expect, nothing more.

[Al Zarilla]

Does anyone have any screen caps of his stance last night vs. 2011? I'm curious to see if it looked any more closed or not. He seemed a bit more balanced than I remember last year, but it could just be because he had positive results for the day.

That's exactly what I dropped in here for. I also mentioned it (what will CC's stance look like) pre-game in last night's game thread. Youtube, MLB.com and ESPN.com don't have anything that I could find. Was his stance more closed or not?

Actually, see below, still open stance, but maybe not quite as exaggerated. He got a hit on a pitch off the plate outside but as Remy pointed out, he could only keep one hand on the bat. Maybe that stance is Tampa Bay vintage CC though. Hope hope hope hope. Editing a bazillion times here, Remy's kind of wrong, CC kept both hands on the bat until the ball was struck and rapidly heading up the middle.

http://mlb.mlb.com/t...layer_id=408307

Edited by Al Zarilla, 17 July 2012 - 12:59 PM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'd say Abs has bingo. Here's Carl from June of last year at the Rogers Center:


Check out how his right heel is almost touching the outside of the batter's box.

Now, last night:

That's a pretty enormous difference.

And, Trek, I don't blame people for not cheering wildly upon his return. Everything you say is true. But there was an irrational part of me hoping for a let-bygones-be-bygones ovation. Guy is pretty clearly an emotional guy, and who knows what kind of boost that would have given.

[JimBoSox9]

That's exactly what I dropped in here for. I also mentioned it (what will CC's stance look like) pre-game in last night's game thread. Youtube, MLB.com and ESPN.com don't have anything that I could find. Was his stance more closed or not?

Actually, see below, still open stance, but maybe not quite as exaggerated. He got a hit on a pitch off the plate outside but as Remy pointed out, he could only keep one hand on the bat. Maybe that stance is Tampa Bay vintage CC though. Hope hope hope hope. Editing a bazillion times here, Remy's kind of wrong, CC kept both hands on the bat until the ball was struck and rapidly heading up the middle.

http://mlb.mlb.com/t...layer_id=408307

Thanks for that link. I'm not sure I see a different hitter there.



My issue has never really been with the open stance (a batter can start with his back to the pitcher for all I care, as long as he's ready when his timing step lands). His balance last season at the trigger point was all over the place, and that first swing was quite similar. If you see the above, right when his front foot lands, his back is already leaning forward and his ass is dangling out behind his legs. At that point your center of gravity is key, and his is all over the place.

The quality of this one is lower so it's not as visible as I'd like, but here's Gonzo's HR swing last night. Both lefties, both balls outside.



Much better vertical orientation around his center of gravity.

I don't love the pitch Crawford hit as an example because the location of it dictates a bit of a lunge anyway, but I think we've all seen enough Manny Ramirez to know what a well-balanced driving of a low-outside pitch is supposed to look like, and that ain't it.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 17 July 2012 - 02:01 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Awaiting the offering in his first AB last night where he singled. That's hardly a closed stance, but as noted above it's nowhere near as wide open as last year.




As the ball is released he steps forward while planting closer to the plate, but he's clearly not expecting the pitch to break down and away and makes an off-balance lunge for the ball. The definition of a lucky hit.

Edited by mabrowndog, 17 July 2012 - 04:57 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Crawford just played Ramirez's 2nd-inning hit high off the LF wall perfectly before launching a strike to second base to hold him to a single. I saw nothing worrisome in his throwing motion or mechanics. He wound up with full arm extension, took a solid stride forward, and uncorked a solid line drive throw.

[C4CRVT]

Crawford just played Ramirez's 2nd-inning hit high off the LF wall perfectly before launching a strike to second base to hold him to a single. I saw nothing worrisome in his throwing motion or mechanics. He wound up with full arm extension, took a solid stride forward, and uncorked a solid line drive throw.

I saw the same thing. I was a little surprised that the throw looked so good.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Very encouraging night from Crawford - the two infield singles were definitely outs for other players. He was moving very well both down the first base line and in easily stealing bases (the third a gift, but he probably could have had it if they'd contested it).

It's probably faint praise for a $21 million player to say he really did a nice job beating out those infield hits, but Crawford is a pretty valuable player if he can be a batting-average-heavy .400 OBP guy (maybe that's asking too much...) and steal a ton of bags.

Combine that with the strong throw and it's easy to watch the game tonight and talk yourself into him being a difference-maker in the second half.

[bosox79]

If Crawford had a .400 obp hed be Rickey Henderson.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Crazy to think that Henderson played into the 2000s, and yet never made more than $4.8m in a year.