23 replies to this topic

[DannyDarwinism]

I was just perusing Larry's career stats- as I'm wont to do before bed, after sex, or during particularly turbulent airplane flights- and I re-noticed something that's long befuddled me so I'm hoping someone here can shed some light.

Larry's rookie year, he took 1.7 threes/game and shot .406%. Quite impressive for a guy just out of the three-pointerless NCAA. But then, for the next four years, he averaged about 0.9 3PA/game and shot a paltry .255%. The four years after that, attempts go up to 2.5/game, and percentage skyrockets to .416%.

I was too young to being paying much attention to anything beyond the fact that he was awesome, but was there discussion of his poor shooting after his rookie year? Or a reason given for his dramatic improvement starting in '84?

[Nomar813]

After it was added, the three-point shot took a while to catch on as a significant part of the NBA game. During those four low seasons from 1980-81 to 1983-84, a player took 100 threes in a season only 20 times. In 1983-84, Michael Cooper finished second in the league with 38 three-point baskets. Nobody hit 100 threes in a season until 1987-88. Why Larry took so many threes (relatively speaking) in his rookie year is hard to say, but in those subsequent seasons he followed the trend of the rest of the league. He certainly had a world class mid-range game and didn't need the three to be an elite offensive player.

[snowmanny]

Right. Looking at three-point stats in the 80's is a little tricky. The three-point shot was largely used as a desperation measure (end of quarter, etc.) in the early years. Also, since there was no three-point shot in college until later in the
1980's players came into the league without having really practiced one or added that to their game.

Bird was a ridiculously great shooter every day of his career, whether he was concussed, had a
broken back, using his left hand, sitting in the trainer's lap or firing one from on the other side of the backboard.

Edited by snowmanny, 12 July 2012 - 06:21 AM.

[DannyDarwinism]

After it was added, the three-point shot took a while to catch on as a significant part of the NBA game. During those four low seasons from 1980-81 to 1983-84, a player took 100 threes in a season only 20 times. In 1983-84, Michael Cooper finished second in the league with 38 three-point baskets. Nobody hit 100 threes in a season until 1987-88. Why Larry took so many threes (relatively speaking) in his rookie year is hard to say, but in those subsequent seasons he followed the trend of the rest of the league. He certainly had a world class mid-range game and didn't need the three to be an elite offensive player.

Interesting. I guess I was wondering if He made a calculated effort to use it as a weapon going into '84-85. As in, He saw it's advantages and decided that off-season to ratchet up His long-range reps in practice. I know that even the greatest shooters can fluctuate fairly significantly from year to year, but for Him to go from .247% in '83-84 tp .427% '84-85 really jumps out.

[bowiac]

I would assume it went something like:

1. Entered the league. Nobody took the three point shot seriously, so he wasn't much guarded around the perimeter. Got a ton of open looks and made them, even without being all that good at the three point shot yet.

2. People noticed that this Bird fellow is taking and making a lot of threes. Stopped sagging off him so much. Bird noticed the effect, and stopped taking so many, since they weren't going in all that often.

3. Bird practices from long range a bunch and becomes adept at getting open looks. Attempts and percentages go back up.

I bet you if Dwight Howard got okay at shooting the three, his progression would got a bit like this. At first nobody would take him seriously, so he'd end up as a premier three point % guy. Then defenses would adjust, and the percentage would go back down. (And he'd have to get really good to get it back up.)

[Cerebus the Batboy]

I think the dip in his second year was because of the acquisition of McHale and Parish. Suddenly there were two skilled post-up players to throw the ball to, so chucking up shots from 23 feet (which must have offended an old-school coach like Bill Fitch) didn't make as much sense. Chris Ford, another bomber from that team, saw his attempts drop from 164 in 1979-80 to 109 in 1980-81 despite playing 608 more minutes.

I have no idea what changed in 1984-85, though. Maybe Ainge was needling him in practice?

[zenter]

The additions of McHale and Parish is one big thing - you could make an extra pass or two to someone shooting from a high-% location. Same goes for Fitch-to-Jones transition, teams scouting Bird, Ainge being a thorn in his side, and Bird evolving. Other things...

• Losing Gerald Henderson after 83-83 meant the team had only one known threat from 3-point range - Bird. Ainge became another threat, but he was a 2nd year player and relative unknown quantity.
• We forget this, but Bird was very athletic when he was younger - he was a drive-and-dish and stop-and-pop kind of guy early on, and he was not nearly as beat up in those days. He actually had the ability to penetrate and have defenses collapse around him, allowing the dish. But this doesn't explain his rookie season...
• That was probably a result of rule changes after his rookie season. For the 81-82 season, NBA tightened the zone prohibition in part because Magic and Bird were deadly on D.
• As for 84-85, NBA rules probably at play again. The "clear path" foul rules were introduced, meaning if Bird blows by a tighter-playing dude and gets fouled from behind, you guarantee him 2 free throws. Defenses are forced to sag.

EDIT: NBA rules history

Edited by zenter, 12 July 2012 - 12:48 PM.

[bowiac]

I think the dip in his second year was because of the acquisition of McHale and Parish. Suddenly there were two skilled post-up players to throw the ball to, so chucking up shots from 23 feet (which must have offended an old-school coach like Bill Fitch) didn't make as much sense. Chris Ford, another bomber from that team, saw his attempts drop from 164 in 1979-80 to 109 in 1980-81 despite playing 608 more minutes.

It's not the drop in attempts that's weird. It's the drop in efficiency that is.

[DannyDarwinism]

The additions of McHale and Parish is one big thing - you could make an extra pass or two to someone shooting from a high-% location. Same goes for Fitch-to-Jones transition, teams scouting Bird, Ainge being a thorn in his side, and Bird evolving. Other things...

• Losing Gerald Henderson after 83-83 meant the team had only one known threat from 3-point range - Bird. Ainge became another threat, but he was a 2nd year player and relative unknown quantity.
• We forget this, but Bird was very athletic when he was younger - he was a drive-and-dish and stop-and-pop kind of guy early on, and he was not nearly as beat up in those days. He actually had the ability to penetrate and have defenses collapse around him, allowing the dish. But this doesn't explain his rookie season...
• That was probably a result of rule changes after his rookie season. For the 81-82 season, NBA tightened the zone prohibition in part because Magic and Bird were deadly on D.
• As for 84-85, NBA rules probably at play again. The "clear path" foul rules were introduced, meaning if Bird blows by a tighter-playing dude and gets fouled from behind, you guarantee him 2 free throws. Defenses are forced to sag.

EDIT: NBA rules history

Good stuff, but on point #4, wouldn't that only apply on the break? Defenses wouldn't be forced to sag to accommodate clear path rules because if the defense is set there's no clear path. Am I missing something?

Edited by DannyDarwinism, 12 July 2012 - 01:09 PM.

[Double Jeopardy]

Maravich was the only deceased player to be named to the top 50 list when it was announced during the NBA All-Star game in Cleveland in 1997.

For those of you too young to remember the former LSU star, consider these staggering figures from 1968-70: Maravich still holds the all-time NCAA scoring record with 3,667 points, for an average of 44.2 per game. This came during a three-year period, as freshmen were not eligible to play in those days. There was no shot clock, and the 3-point shot did not exist.

Former LSU coach Dale Brown watched tape of every college game played by Maravich, who died in 1988. Brown calculated that 13 of his made shots per game were from what is now behind the collegiate 3-point line, which would have brought his points per game average to 57.

http://www.news-hera...ts/nh519396.txt

The above information is not directly related to the conversation. I just found it fascinating.

[lars10]

It's not the drop in attempts that's weird. It's the drop in efficiency that is.

Couple things: his attempts were .9/game...which is a super small sample size. Given that it is reasonable to assume that those .9 attempts were at the end of quarters or halves and of the desperation variety.

I'd imagine that as one said above that Parrish and McHale arriving had a lot to do with the attempts going down.

[Cerebus the Batboy]

It's not the drop in attempts that's weird. It's the drop in efficiency that is.

Ah. I assume it went from being a strategic shot in 1979-80 to something used in desperation at the end of games from 1980-84 (along with the occasional half-court heave at the end of quarters).

[zenter]

Good stuff, but on point #4, wouldn't that only apply on the break? Defenses wouldn't be forced to sag to accommodate clear path rules because if the defense is set there's no clear path. Am I missing something?

Yeah. Good point. Maybe that rule change was not as big a deal.

[DannyDarwinism]

I think the dip in his second year was because of the acquisition of McHale and Parish. Suddenly there were two skilled post-up players to throw the ball to, so chucking up shots from 23 feet (which must have offended an old-school coach like Bill Fitch) didn't make as much sense. Chris Ford, another bomber from that team, saw his attempts drop from 164 in 1979-80 to 109 in 1980-81 despite playing 608 more minutes.

I have no idea what changed in 1984-85, though. Maybe Ainge was needling him in practice?

Ah. I assume it went from being a strategic shot in 1979-80 to something used in desperation at the end of games from 1980-84 (along with the occasional half-court heave at the end of quarters).

Hmm, I think this is going somewhere. His rookie year it was more of a viable strategy, but the next year they had McHale and Parish down low so Fitch puts an end to that, thus attempts go down and, you guys note, so does percentages as what few attempts there are now are likely out of desparation. KC Jones replaces Fitch in 83, but it takes him a year to implement his system. Attempts skyrocket in 84.

[snowmanny]

http://www.news-hera...ts/nh519396.txt

The above information is not directly related to
the conversation. I just found it fascinating.

Pete Maravich's last year in the NBA was the first year of the three-point shot. He made 10 of 15 shots from three point range.

[pedrosdaddy]

Bowiacs line of thought makes sense. I would add to his reasoning that the three point shot comes in a wide variety of locations with the corner obviously trumping all. Bird was a basketball genius and could have made a killing there his first season before adjustments were made on defense, limiting his looks. During the next three seasons his attempts plummet and a decent percentage of those as alluded to before were end of half/game shots (assumptions of course). He could have also been left with inefficient threes that he took anyway as he matured as a player.

Even Ray Allen has a hot/cold area from out there. In an age where heat charts didn't exist I wouldn't be surprised if Bird had to learn the hard way.

Edited by pedrosdaddy, 17 July 2012 - 03:58 AM.

[pedrosdaddy]

Hmm, I think this is going somewhere. His rookie year it was more of a viable strategy, but the next year they had McHale and Parish down low so Fitch puts an end to that, thus attempts go down and, you guys note, so does percentages as what few attempts there are now are likely out of desparation. KC Jones replaces Fitch in 83, but it takes him a year to implement his system. Attempts skyrocket in 84.

FWIW Birds usage in his rookie season was almost exactly the same as the following years when his 3PA plummeted. It wasn't Parrish and Mchale taking his looks, it was most definitely a strategic overhaul of the offense once the twin towers came in. Whats pretty annoying is Birds 3PA should have went up and not down. Bleh.

[lexrageorge]

FWIW Birds usage in his rookie season was almost exactly the same as the following years when his 3PA plummeted. It wasn't Parrish and Mchale taking his looks, it was most definitely a strategic overhaul of the offense once the twin towers came in. Whats pretty annoying is Birds 3PA should have went up and not down. Bleh.

Well, the team did win a championship during that period, so I'm not sure why it's necessary to be annoyed.

[snowmanny]

And one of the key plays during that Finals was Bird getting the ball about eight feet from the basket, dribbling it out to the left corner and nailing a three. Which was something that basically nobody had ever seen.

[pedrosdaddy]

Well, the team did win a championship during that period, so I'm not sure why it's necessary to be annoyed.

Following that logic, if they had lost game 7 to the Lakers then I would have reason to be annoyed?

I'm not even annoyed with Fitch, he did what he thought was right. It's just when you limit such a high efficiency shot from your team (Bird for 3) the results will suffer.

Edited by pedrosdaddy, 17 July 2012 - 06:06 PM.

[lexrageorge]

League average on 3 point shots was around 25% in 1983-84, compared to 49% for 2 pointers. Which means the expected return for a 2 pointer was quite a bit larger. Figures for 2011-12 are 35% and 45%, which gives the 3 pointer a higher expected return. Also, figure that it is far more likely to reach the foul line going for 2 than for 3, and Bird did sink half as many free throws as field goals. So the strategy was sound. For those 3 seasons, Bird wasn't much better than league average.

So, the real reason: the coaches, and Larry, did what put the team in the best position to win, given the math. So, you really shouldn't be annoyed.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The Cs had been horrible the year before Larry came, and IIRC, Larry really took it upon himself to score in his first year. Also, in the first three years, barely any team in the NBA encouraged their players - or ran plays - to take 3-point shots.

Also, for posterity's sake, we've discussed this before: http://sonsofsamhorn...point-shooting/

[DannyDarwinism]

Well I'll be. That wasn't even that long ago, though I must admit I didn't go looking for previous threads before I started this one. There's some interesting discussion over there as well, thanks WBCD.

[pedrosdaddy]

League average on 3 point shots was around 25% in 1983-84, compared to 49% for 2 pointers. Which means the expected return for a 2 pointer was quite a bit larger. Figures for 2011-12 are 35% and 45%, which gives the 3 pointer a higher expected return. Also, figure that it is far more likely to reach the foul line going for 2 than for 3, and Bird did sink half as many free throws as field goals. So the strategy was sound. For those 3 seasons, Bird wasn't much better than league average.

So, the real reason: the coaches, and Larry, did what put the team in the best position to win, given the math. So, you really shouldn't be annoyed.

So let me get this straight. The league as a whole sucked at 3 pointers so I should ignore the fact the one of the most efficient 3 point shooters of all time (adjusted for era) barely took any, despite showing he was potentially really good at it during his rookie year?

One of the best coaches of all time Gregg Popovich is precisely one of the greatest of all time for an important reason. His offenses focus on getting good looks from the corner. If you think for one second he could go back in time and coach the early 80's Celtics and wouldn't make "Larry from the corner" a massive part of his offense, you are insane.

Again, I don't blame Fitch. He didn't have the info we have today. However that doesn't change the fact that Larry would have been more valuable if coaches knew the value of the three (or way more importantly the corner, especially then when it was even more valuable than the other deep options).

Also regarding your comparative shooting percentages, they have to be taken with a massive grain of salt due to the court having different dimensions now as opposed to then. One dimension that hasn't changed? The distance from the corner!

To summarize:

With the information at hand, Fitch may have had the best offensive game plan at the time

However, in retrospect it could have been way! better because of Birds corner 3 ability.

Edited by pedrosdaddy, 17 July 2012 - 09:48 PM.