51 replies to this topic

[jkempa]

Wanted to let everyone know that I'm planning to run an Olympics pool again this year. I think that it will be for a $20 entry fee this year. It will be winner take all if I get less than 100 entries and I'll split it up if I get more than 100 entries.

Details to follow (probably by Friday), but SoSH is invited to participate.

[jkempa]

I have the rules for this year's pool ready. Entry form is here.

I edited the post to better organize the rules. No rules have changed.


How to play
1. The object is to score the most points by selecting countries that win medals in Olympic competition.
2. Each player receives points only for the countries that he or she has selected. Each country may only be selected once.
3. Each player must select one Superpower from the following list: China, Russian Federation, United States.
4. Each player has a population budget of 300 million people to use in selecting up to 12 other countries for which he or she will earn medal points.
5. There are five Olympic Regions: Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, Americas. Each Olympic Region has been determined by the IOC and is published on the entry form below and on the London Olympics website. Each player must select at least one country from each Olympic Region in addition to their Superpower.
6. Each player may select up to seven "Wild Card" countries from any region (excluding Superpowers), provided that the total population of their Olympic Region Countries and Wild Card Countries do not exceed 300 million. You may pick fewer than seven Wild Cards if you choose.


Scoring
1. Each gold medal is worth 5 points, each silver medal worth 3 points and each bronze medal is worth 1 point, with multipliers for smaller countries.
2. Countries with a population of less than 20 million but more than 5 million earn double medal points (e.g. a gold medal is worth 10 points).
3. Countries with a population of less than 5 million but more than 2 million earn triple medal points (e.g. a gold medal is worth 15 points).
4. Countries with less than 2 million population earn quintuple medal points (e.g. a gold medal is worth 25 points).
5. Scoring is based on the medal counts at the end of the Closing Ceremonies. Any subsequent changes to medal counts will not be accounted for and scoring will be final at that time.


Entry Fee
1. Entry fee is USD 20 in cash or USD 21 by Paypal. The pot will consist of all money received less Paypal fees.
2. Payment may be made in cash or by Paypal to jkempa@yahoo.com. Please do NOT make any reference to the Olympic Pool or gambling in a Paypal payment or your entry will be disqualified.
3. If there are fewer than 100 entries, the winner will take the entire pot. If there are 100 or more entries, the pot will be split 70% / 20% / 10% for first, second and third places.
4. Entries and fees are due prior to the start of the Opening Ceremonies. No exceptions. Please fill out the entry form below and send to kempaolympics@gmail.com. If you don't know me personally, please let me know who referred you (mention SoSH if you are member).

Edited by jkempa, 24 July 2012 - 09:17 PM.

[DrewDawg]

Nice.

Nothing better than researching some obscure sport at work to see if some country with 14 people can possibly medal.

[URI]

Im pretty sure I finished top 3 or 4 in 08. I demand riches.

Edit: Just looked it up. Second by 4 points. Latvia.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Thanks for running this, Jeff. Couple questions:

1) Will you be publishing a full list of competitors and country rosters? The secretive submission process is unusual for SoSH contests (I just want to mock people for putting Ethiopia or something) but I guess you've got a number of entrants from beyond SoSH.
2) I'm happy to oblige but I'm curious, why wouldn't you want a descriptive note on the Paypal receipt?
3) Can a person make more than one entry?

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 12 July 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[jkempa]

No problem - I have fun with it!

1) Yes, I will publish everyone's picks after the Opening Ceremonies. Besides SoSH, there will be co-workers and friends in the pool (and probably some friends of friends too). Feel free to mock anyone, especially from here.
2) I've heard that Paypal will freeze accounts of people they suspect of using their service to collect gambling fees.
3) More than one entry is fine.

Edited by jkempa, 12 July 2012 - 06:36 PM.

[jkempa]

OK - here's the entry form. You can download to your computer from Google Docs. There are drop-down menus for each of the places to fill in. You must fill in all of the green sections. You may elect to fill in as many yellow as you wish, provided you keep your total population (excluding Superpowers) to under 300 million. The parts in red will populate automatically.

Please send your completed entry form by email to kempaolympics@gmail.com

If you wish to share this with friends/co-workers, etc., that's OK, but please do so responsibly. Ask your friends to refer to you and your SoSH handle when they enter.

If you have any questions, please feel free to ask them here or send me a PM.

Here's the link:

https://docs.google....MEdfUkFtZENFWmM

Edit: Link updated with new version of file containing Venezuela. No need to resubmit unless you totally forgot about Venezuela too and are dying to add it to your picks.

Edited by jkempa, 13 July 2012 - 05:13 PM.

[URI]

I demand you recognize my silver metal last time, and provide me with kudos.

[DrewDawg]

LATVIA!!

[MentalDisabldLst]

Some curiosities discovered while fooling around on jkempa's spreadsheet:

- Israel is apparently in Europe
- All Israel's neighbors are in Asia (except Egypt)
- Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are all in Europe
- Venezuela isn't even on the spreadsheet. I mean, fuck Chavez and all, but they did get a couple of Bronzes in 2004 and 2008 and will be in London.
- Kazakhstan may be the best-value bet in Asia. South Korea and Japan may cost too much in population
- I predict zero people will choose Russia as their superpower
- Romania is either above or below the 20M population cutoff depending on if you ask the World Bank (21.4M) or the 2011 census (19.0M). At stake may be ~50 points.

[cjdmadcow]

One question that immediately comes to mind...am I right in thinking that it's impossible to choose India? They're not considered a superpower but with a population of 1.2 billion they're a small matter of 900 million over your allocated budget?

Some curiosities discovered while fooling around on jkempa's spreadsheet:

- Israel is apparently in Europe
- All Israel's neighbors are in Asia (except Egypt)
- Turkey, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are all in Europe
- Venezuela isn't even on the spreadsheet. I mean, fuck Chavez and all, but they did get a couple of Bronzes in 2004 and 2008 and will be in London.
- Kazakhstan may be the best-value bet in Asia. South Korea and Japan may cost too much in population
- I predict zero people will choose Russia as their superpower
- Romania is either above or below the 20M population cutoff depending on if you ask the World Bank (21.4M) or the 2011 census (19.0M). At stake may be ~50 points.

For a long time Israel has been part of the European sporting & cultural scene, mainly because no-one in their region would have played them otherwise! Geographically they are Asia, however.

Turkey is on the shortlist to join the European Union so that makes sense. They are considered the gateway to Asia and have a foot in both camps, I guess.

[jkempa]

One question that immediately comes to mind...am I right in thinking that it's impossible to choose India? They're not considered a superpower but with a population of 1.2 billion they're a small matter of 900 million over your allocated budget?



For a long time Israel has been part of the European sporting & cultural scene, mainly because no-one in their region would have played them otherwise! Geographically they are Asia, however.

Turkey is on the shortlist to join the European Union so that makes sense. They are considered the gateway to Asia and have a foot in both camps, I guess.

Yeah, I didn't understand the Israel thing, but your answer makes sense. I did leave Venezuela off by mistake...I'll post a revised version of the file tonight.

A few people picked Russia in 2008. It wasn't the best move then.

I used Wikipedia for all populations.

Oh yeah, you really can't pick India. Not sure why you would want to so hopefully I've just prevented someone from making a terrible mistake.

Edited by jkempa, 25 July 2012 - 06:20 PM.

[jkempa]

I demand you recognize my silver metal last time, and provide me with kudos.

Apsveicam otrajā vietā.

Edited by jkempa, 13 July 2012 - 07:32 AM.

[loshjott]

I refuse to bet on China vs. the USA...which is why I never win these type of things.

[johnmd20]

I joined and Emailed, thanks kempa, let me know if there are any problems. I appreciate you running this pool.

[Dan Murfman]

I joined and Emailed, thanks kempa, let me know if there are any problems. I appreciate you running this pool.

How many entries?

[jkempa]

How many entries?

Honestly, not very many so far. I'm pretty confident that we'll get more than 50 and possibly close to 100 though. Eight days left to enter still.

[jkempa]

Bump - little over 3 days left to go...Get your entries in!

[loshjott]

Just sent mine in.

[jkempa]

We're at about 30-35 entries right now. I've got another 10-15 people who are committed but haven't sent theirs in yet. I only have a few from SoSH though.

I'd love to get this thing to 75 (or more), so get your entries in!

You can still enter until 11:59pm on Friday.

Edited by jkempa, 26 July 2012 - 10:33 AM.

[jkempa]

Final bump - we're at 40 entries so far. Little over 12 hours to get your entries in.

I will send out a list of everyone's selections tomorrow and email the first standings probably on Monday.

[DrewDawg]

Doubtful we get to 100 entries, but with where you're at now, a pot of around $800-$1000 ain't bad.

COME ON HUNGARY!!!!

[jkempa]

Doubtful we get to 100 entries, but with where you're at now, a pot of around $800-$1000 ain't bad.

COME ON HUNGARY!!!!

No, not getting to 100 entries. We're at 46 right now. Still 9 hours or so left to enter - so I'm pretty sure we'll be over $1000.

[URI]

I just sent mine in. I found the actual real value pick in Asia...not fighting a land war there.

[URI]

What former Soviet republic will be making you all eat shit at my behest?

[MentalDisabldLst]

Just submitted mine. Feeling real good about it.

I spent way too much time trying to figure out if Kirsty Coventry was still a legit threat for a gold or two.

[DrewDawg]

Is there anyone in the pool that did not pick Jamaica?

[loshjott]

Kazakhstan!!

[johnmd20]

Kazakhstan!!

My first gold, too.

[loshjott]

My first gold, too.

I snuck in a bronze for Norway in that race also.

[johnmd20]

jkempa, is there a link for this pool yet?

[URI]

I have 7 points so far. This means sure death to all of you, via Juggalo.

[jkempa]

Sorry for the delay everyone (I went to the stupid baseball game last night) - I just sent out an email to all participants. From SoSH we have entries from me, URI, DrewDawg, MDL, johnmd20, loshjott, bostonbeerbelly, and VegasSoxFan Good luck to everyone!

[jkempa]

For those of you scoring at home, here are the SoSH standings through July 30:

Leader (non-SoSH): 181
MentalDisabldLst: 153
jkempa: 150
URI: 146
loshjott: 145
johnmd20: 137
bostonbeerbelly: 135
VegasSoxFan: 133
DrewDawg: 131
Last Place (non-SoSH): 54

[MentalDisabldLst]

This pool is going to come down to a small number of countries that represent the variety among the top entrants ("top" by my assessment). The key head-to-head matchups are:

- USA vs China (duh)
- Romania vs Azerbaijan
- (South Korea + France) vs (Kazakhstan + Germany)
- Czech Republic vs Cuba
- Norway vs Lithuania

Nearly all the top entrants had some huge overlap (USA, Kenya, Great Britain, Australia, Jamaica, Cuba, Netherlands, Hungary, Belarus), so there's a lot riding on the small variation between them.

edit: Current points (5/3/1) for those matchups, as of right now, are:

China 116 over USA 93
Romania 32 over Azerbaijan 2
KOR 40 + FRA 39 = 79 over KAZ 30 + GER 41 = 71
Cuba 14 over Czech 6
Lithuania 15 over Norway 8

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 01 August 2012 - 07:13 PM.

[johnmd20]

Hungary has been a huge pick for people. Not picking them has knocked me out of the running, due to the overlap factor. Just too far behind to catch up. Still, this pool has been really fun to watch and monitor, I think it's a cool way to go about it.

[jkempa]

I still think that South Korea + France will outdo Kazakhstan + Germany. Kazakhstan is really good at weightlifting but that's winding down. We will see...

[Royal Reader]

Did anyone pick NZL? They're usually good for a handful of golds with a low population.

[MentalDisabldLst]

Yes, 45 of 59 entrants picked New Zealand, on top of all-but-one entrant picking Australia (for some reason I left them out of my common-overlap list). So while NZ is good for a couple of medals, they're also not a wedge factor to boost some people at the expense of others. By my estimates, all top contenders picked them.

Also, it sucks to be one of the 3 top entrants (Derek S, Muhammed & Ryan, Farshed H) who picked Zimbabwe as their Africa pick. Kirsty Coventry is their lone medalist, with 3 medals in Athens (1/1/1) and 4 in Beijing (1/3/0), but is old and uncoached at this point and has finished 6th and 7th in 2 of her 3 events. She'll probably qualify for the 200 Back finals but isn't a likely contender. Basically everyone betting on Zimbabwe was betting on getting a few points from her for their 13M in population; otherwise, you'd either take Kenya for the points, or Seychelles for the near-zero population.

One top entrant went for Seychelles (i.e. punted on Africa), put in Czech Republic instead of Cuba, and was able to fit Italy into a wildcard slot where most other people had Azerbaijan, Norway or Romania. If Czech and Italy kill it (and Italy has been rocking the fencing), she's got a decent shot of contending in the pool.

[Royal Reader]

Also, it sucks to be one of the 3 top entrants (Derek S, Muhammed & Ryan, Farshed H) who picked Zimbabwe as their Africa pick. Kirsty Coventry is their lone medalist, with 3 medals in Athens (1/1/1) and 4 in Beijing (1/3/0), but is old and uncoached at this point

Not to mention, as she just mentioned in a BBC interview, dislocated her kneecap in March, then got pneumonia in May.

[jkempa]

I really debated about punting in Africa but ultimately thought Kenya will do better than what I could do with the extra population. Looking for a lot of distance gold. MDL how does your model look for the guy that went with all of the small countries?

[MentalDisabldLst]

Which guy?

If you're talking about Jim K, the sole entrant who left Australia off his roster, who opted for Japan (127M!) over Germany, and tossed in Norway, Romania, Georgia, Mongolia and Bahamas... he's close to the bottom at 1185 pts, an expected 300 points behind the leaders.

If you're talking about Anthony A, who left Britain off but kept both Kazakhstan and South Korea and also added Slovenia, Romania and Latvia (aside from some typical picks like Cuba, Hungary and Belarus), he's not much better. I've got him 49th, at 1236 pts, a solid 250 behind the leaders.

I'm working on adding in Beau Dure's event-by-event projections (from SportsMyriad.com) so we can track how well countries are doing vs expectations to date, and what projections are for remaining events. Progress on that correlates with my boredom on conference calls. I've got a lawyer-fight conf call from 5-6 so I predict I'll have something to share soon.

Edited by MentalDisabldLst, 02 August 2012 - 02:55 PM.

[jkempa]

Anthony is up near the top of the standings right now though.

There was someone that used only 201 million of population (I don't have access to my file right now) who took the strategy of picking small countries I presume to take advantage of all the multipliers. I don't think that was Anthony or Jim (aka Dad).

[MentalDisabldLst]

Anfernee has (South Korea + Slovenia) instead of something sensible like (Britain + New Zealand). He skipped the Netherlands or a defensible alternative choice like Norway in favor of Latvia. LATVIA! Let's just say I'm not worried about him.

As for the low-budget guy, I see who you mean - you're thinking of Kipp A, who is #47/59 by my book. Decent regional picks, but went for Slovakia, Czech, Denmark and the Bahamas when she (?) had the budget for Germany (81M people!), Hungary, Belarus, and a better 7th pick. Although she's not a contender, she at least picked some countries who will get medals at all.

No, it's Craig H I'd like to see studied in the name of science. Not a European power to be found, but goes for Spain, Greece, fuckin' Ethiopia (the only non-mandatory Africa pick in the entire pool), Grenada, Portugal, and Puerto Rico. I mean, he'll finish ahead of Jason M, who didn't even bother with a 7th wild card, but at least Jason went down swinging with Russia, Germany/UK, etc.

What I don't understand is why someone with a spare slot wouldn't have just thrown Iceland into their mix, for a mere 300k in population, so that they'd have a shitload of fun rooting in handball. The Icelandic men's team made the gold medal match in Beijing, I'm sure it's all anyone at health clubs in Iceland have been playing for the last 4 years. Plus you'll have something to talk about when you go visit.

[bostonbeerbelly]

By my counts Mike T. has taken a fairly large lead. I have leader at 807, Jeff in 7th and I think I am 16th 52 points off the lead. Will wait to see an official update.

[johnmd20]

Yes, 45 of 59 entrants picked New Zealand, on top of all-but-one entrant picking Australia (for some reason I left them out of my common-overlap list). So while NZ is good for a couple of medals, they're also not a wedge factor to boost some people at the expense of others. By my estimates, all top contenders picked them.

Indeed. If you didn't pick NZL, you're dead. I didn't pick them. A horrendous oversight. I picked Trinidad and Tobago instead. Awful. Go home John.

[jkempa]

I'm starting to feel better about my Mongolia pick now. They've got two boxers in the quarterfinals - so that's a total crapshoot. Hopefully the Mongolian Boxing federation put some of their new mining riches to good use and bribed the right officials.

Also, both men's and women's wrestling starts today, so hopefully that will earn Mongolia a medal or two as well.

[MentalDisabldLst]

This pool is going to come down to a small number of countries that represent the variety among the top entrants ("top" by my assessment). The key head-to-head matchups are:

- USA vs China (duh)
- Romania vs Azerbaijan
- (South Korea + France) vs (Kazakhstan + Germany)
- Czech Republic vs Cuba
- Norway vs Lithuania

Nearly all the top entrants had some huge overlap (USA, Kenya, Great Britain, Australia, Jamaica, Cuba, Netherlands, Hungary, Belarus, New Zealand), so there's a lot riding on the small variation between them.

An update through tonight on these key matchups...

Current tally:
China 226 over USA 209
Romania 48 over Azerbaijan 10
KOR 74 + FRA 76 = 150 over KAZ 62 + GER 62 = 124
Cuba 50 over Czech 30
Lithuania 18 over Norway 8

Projected points (current + remaining predicted, differential from original project in parentheses):
USA 353 (-14) over China 307 (+35)
Romania 56 (+20) over Azerbaijan 36 (-6)
KAZ 76 (+10) + GER 125 (-17) = 201 over KOR 87 (+16) + FRA 107 (+23) = 194, but, I mean, just barely...
Cuba 82 (+36) over Czech 70 (-2)
Lithuania 30 (+15) over Norway 24 (+6)

My analysis:
USA has been screwing up the last few days, and China has been overperforming big-time, but the projected gap between them is still 46 points, so Jeff B is unlikely to steal the pool by riding China. In the all-important Romania vs Azerbaijan matchup, my Romanians are projected to have a comfortable 20-pt lead over the Azeris unless they blow away their expectations in wrestling this week. Romania stole a gold in Men's 10m air rifle and Women's Vault, and jumped from bronze to silver in a couple of judo classes, but also fell apart from a gold projection and didn't medal in Women's Team Epee fencing. They still have a few legit contenders for medals, too. The Azeris turned a gold into a silver in 55kg Greco-Roman but dropped a projected bronze in the 60kg G-R as well as in 84kg Judo. This is freestyle wrestling week, though - they are projected to have a gold, a silver and 4 bronzes. They'll need to top that considerably (as well as taking their golds in 80kg Taekwondo and Men's 200m Canoe) to beat Romania and put Dave G and Tyler M over the top.

Kenya's underperformance won't separate most of the top contenders (who nearly all have Kenya). The only one who might benefit from a Kenya flop is Jennifer E (who punted Africa with Seychelles), but she still won't get close enough with Czech + Italy to make up for not having Kenya + Cuba + Max(ROM, LTU, AZER).

The only matchup that's worrying me is South Korea + France, who are both hugely outperforming expectations, and while my Kazakhs are doing ver' nice (6 golds so far), Germany has been taking it in the cornhole out there. KAZ+GER is still projected to beat KOR+FRA by 7, but that's down from an original projected margin of 53! If South Korea keeps rolling, it opens up a shot for Derek S (he needs Korea + Norway to top Kenya + Kazakhstan + [Romania/Azerbaijan]). Meanwhile, if France has une grande semaine and tops Germany outright, it puts Jeff Kempa (Mongolia) and Joe H / Paul L (Lithuania) into a race vs Romania and Azerbaijan for the title.

[jkempa]

Final standings in the pool, with their place among the 59 entries in parentheses after their names. MDL was the big winner in the pool, sharing the $1180 pot.

MentalDisabldLst: 1545 (tie 1st)
VegasSoxFan: 1535 (tie 3rd)
DrewDawg: 1502 (tie 11th)
jkempa: 1502 (tie 11th)
URI: 1440 (24th)
loshjott: 1420 (29th)
johnmd20: 1398 (32nd)
bostonbeerbelly: 1395 (34th)
Last Place (non-SoSH): 934

Edited by jkempa, 13 August 2012 - 07:49 AM.

[MentalDisabldLst]

A huge thanks to JKempa for running this pool. It completely changed how much fun I had watching all sorts of random events. Instead of just rooting for the USA, I found myself rooting even harder for Romania, Germany, and even Kazakhstan. Instead of just rooting against China and Russia, I was rooting against Azerbaijan, South Korea, Lithuania, and... well, I would've rooted against France anyway. But really, every event had some rooting interest in it for me. What a fun two weeks.

The USA cost me an outright win in the tiebreak by a single (missed) medal. Margaux Isaksen, Alysia Johnson and Tervel Dlagnev, you're on my list. Congrats to Joanna F and her first-place finish. Props to VegasSoxFan for a smart set of picks that had me biting my nails on the final day, and probably should have won. And well done by the clairvoyant SoSH contingent, all but one of whom finished in the top half.