52 replies to this topic

[SoxScout]

One baseball insider suggested the Red Sox are discussing a deal involving outfielder Ryan Sweeney, who will become more expendable once Jacoby Ellsbury returns to action soon after the All-Star break, and the Chicago Cubs are one possible destination. The Cubs are believed to be listening to offers for two of their starting pitchers: Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster. Sweeney would have to be part of a much larger package if either of those pitchers, particularly Garza, went to the Red Sox. . . .

http://bostonherald....leid=1061144624

[Lose Remerswaal]

As long as we get THE Matt Garza or THE Ryan Dempster, and not A Matt Garza or A Ryan Dempster, this would be ok

[OCD SS]

While, I'm not that familiar with the Cubs OF situation, it seems like Sweeney would be a player that wouldn't really fit their needs. If Garza (or Dempster) is coming to the Sox they they'd have to be giving up quite a bit more (which I find pretty scary), with Sweeney really only balancing out money or roster space.

The other option is that there's a third team, and the Sox are bit players as Theo packages a pitcher with Sweeney...

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Yeah, Sweeney is only being included in the potential deal so that the roster spots would balance.

I too am terrified by this report, and hope the Sox are only being used by Theo to drive up the price paid by some other team.

[yecul]

Awful news. This is not a team you want to add to. Sure squire dempster and then watch ellsbury struggle to perform after so much time off, buchholz not return to form etc. Too many unknown variables to gfin.

The team needs to hope for health and improved performance. That seems dubious at this point but would put them in a good spot.

[Koufax]

The Sox have more outfielders than they know what to do with. Sweeney for Garza ain't happening. GFIN ain't happening. Sweeney for a C prospect might happen and it would be good for Sweeney and the Sox.

[C4CRVT]

Sure, Sweeney and Lackey for Dempster.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

More likely for Sweeney and Lackey we'd get a dumpster.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This sounds like a "Hey Theo, we may end up DFAing Sweeney, any chance you'd give up something for him" kind of rumor.

[glennhoffmania]

Hey it could work. Theo loved the guy on a 5 year deal. Why wouldn't he want him on a 3 year deal with a free option year?

[Beomoose]

How about we throw in Aviles or Lili while we're at it?

[Hokie Sox]

It's pretty depressing when you consider we've gone from "Starlin Castro ain't walkin' through that door" last off-season to "Matt Garza (4-7, 4.32 ERA) ain't walkin' through that door" this season.

[Corsi]

#redsox may trade ryan sweeney. maybe even in time to make room for jacoby ellsbury.

http://bit.ly/O2731j
heyman

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

http://bit.ly/O2731j
heyman

Cherington: Hey Jacoby, we plan on activating you asap. And we're not gonna ease you back - you're get all the playing time because we're trading Ryan.

Ellsbury: Hey Scott, just talked to Ben and he said...

Boras: Hey Jon, here's a tip...

[Rudy Pemberton]

Cubs got this kid Bowden who has been pitching pretty well in AAA.....

[Laser Show]

I take this as a sign that the FO has little to no faith in Beckett/Lester/Buchholz actually stepping up and pitching like the aces that they can be. Can't say I blame them after the past year.

Of course, if they trade Xander/Brentz/JBJ/Barnes/Swihart/most of the rest of the list, I'll be pissed.

[mikeford]

More likely for Sweeney and Lackey we'd get a dumpster.

Thats a win for us if we don't pick up any of Lackey's salary


Edit: I will say... I don't really understand wanting to do this. You trade your best defensive OF rather than just DFA Lillibridge? I get not sending down Nava (DFAing? SoxProspects says he's got an option year left). I don't get not just jettisoning Lugobridge.

Maybe you'd trade him when Crawford comes back but til then... not really understanding putting yourself one injury away from having to have Kalish up here again.

Edited by mikeford, 10 July 2012 - 10:00 PM.

[bosockboy]

My guess is they know if they get swept this weekend the season is over and might try to get a SP solution right away. I think Dempster is their target.

[SoxScout]

I get not sending down Nava (DFAing? SoxProspects says he's got an option year left)

Nava has already crashed, as expected, and is a .680 OPS over the last 28 days. I'll take Sweeney with only one year of control left hoping that some miracle happens and next year we are good and he can play a real role on the team over the hope that Nava will ever be good again.

My guess is they know if they get swept this weekend the season is over and might try to get a SP solution right away. I think Dempster is their target.

Maybe this is why they are tentatively scheduled to open the 2nd half in must win games with Morales and Buchholz?

Edited by SoxScout, 10 July 2012 - 10:09 PM.

[Laser Show]

Maybe this is why they are tentatively scheduled to open the 2nd half in must win games with Morales and Buchholz?

I think this is sarcasm - but why would Beckett or Lester be better options at this point?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Sweeney is at 283 / 319 / 400 this year, with a ridiculous 9 BB, and 41 K. 0 HR. 27 years old. Making $1.75M. To me, he looks like a definite non-tender next year. Where is the upside, there? I suspect Nava can replicate his stats for 1/3 of the price, so if there's an opportunity to have someone assume his contract and get him off the roster, take it.

[Cellar-Door]

Sweeney is at 283 / 319 / 400 this year, with a ridiculous 9 BB, and 41 K. 0 HR. 27 years old. Making $1.75M. To me, he looks like a definite non-tender next year. Where is the upside, there? I suspect Nava can replicate his stats for 1/3 of the price, so if there's an opportunity to have someone assume his contract and get him off the roster, take it.

He makes almost no money and plays defense very well and the BB/K ratio isn't in line with his career. There's always someone looking for a defensive outfielder who gets on base at a decent clip. Just because he has no real place in the Red Sox outfield doesn't mean he has no value to other teams. Especially since I believe he has an option left.

[Savin Hillbilly]

He makes almost no money and plays defense very well and the BB/K ratio isn't in line with his career.

This needs to be emphasized. He's easily the best defensive OF on the roster while Ellsbury and Crawford are still out. We haven't seen Nava play a single game in Fenway's RF--and I'm not too sure I want to see that, either. Nava's not a butcher, but there's a definite defensive cost to making him, rather than Sweeney, the LH half of a RF platoon with Ross. So the question for the Sox is whether they really want a platoon in RF, or they want to give Ross the job and keep a LHH 4th OF around for occasional sub duty. If it's the former, I'd keep Sweeney. If the latter, deal Sweeney and keep Nava.

[mikeford]

Nava has already crashed, as expected, and is a .680 OPS over the last 28 days. I'll take Sweeney with only one year of control left hoping that some miracle happens and next year we are good and he can play a real role on the team over the hope that Nava will ever be good again.

Absolutely. I agree with you that given the choice of Nava v. Sweeney, you take Sweeney. The point i was making was that it should be Nava v. Lugobridge til Crawford is ready to be activated. Then you send Nava back to the Bucket. If you're gonna keep Pedro up here, that really renders Lugobridge's existence on the 25 man moot.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think it's pretty clear from Ross's playing time that BobbyV wants his bat in the lineup as much as possible. Especially when he's the only RH power threat on the team.

And if they're not going to platoon the two in favor of Ross as the everyday RF, it makes sense to try to unload Sweeney -- if only because he has more trade value in theory than Nava, Podsednik, Lillibridge, Lin, and whoever else Ben might want to throw against the wall.

Of course, as I mentioned -- I'm terrified about Ben's trades, and would far prefer a Punto or Lillibridge DFA.

[E5 Yaz]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo
So the plan is for Red Sox to activate Jacoby Ellsbury on Friday and Clay Buchholz on Sat. Trying to deal an OF, preferably Sweeney.

[Harry Hooper]

Nava has already crashed, as expected, and is a .680 OPS over the last 28 days. I'll take Sweeney with only one year of control left hoping that some miracle happens and next year we are good and he can play a real role on the team over the hope that Nava will ever be good again.

OK, this is the second time this has come up with Nava today. He's been putrid in his last 14 days (12 games), putting up a .146/.241/.250/.491 line. However, in the 14 days (11 games) before that, he put up a .414/.469/.517/.986 line.

[SoxScout]

OK, this is the second time this has come up with Nava today. He's been putrid in his last 14 days (12 games), putting up a .146/.241/.250/.491 line. However, in the 14 days (11 games) before that, he put up a .414/.469/.517/.986 line.

He's a 29 year old career .280/.378/.435 Triple-A hitter that had a unfathomable hot streak for us and has cooled down. I don't see what the issue is?

Edited by SoxScout, 11 July 2012 - 12:31 AM.

[TheoShmeo]

Nava's regression to being Nava is no surprise. Same with Sweeney. But why would they move either of them to make room for Ellsbury unless they can get real value in return (a dubious proposition) when they can just DFA Lillebridge? Outside of last season, the man has been consistently putrid and while theoretically versatile, he's not actually good at anything. Scott Podsednik is another guy who offers more value than Liilebridge, even factoring in the latter's ability to play the infield.

[Plympton91]

DFAing Lillibridge while Youkilis is on his way to winning player of the month might be a bit unsightly for an image conscious team.

I don't understand why Daniel Nava has be a consistent 900 OPS to warrant a place on the roster. His career AAA line and his performance to date in two fairly extended major league auditions suggests he's a 270 / 350 / 410 hitter and a little better than that from the left side. That's really good for a 4th orr 5th outfielder (compare to McDonald).

It comes down to whether you value Sweeney's defense more than the $1 million salary relief you're getting by keeping Nava. Given that they dumped two starting infielders for the sole purpose of saving a little money, that tells you why they'd like to dump Sweeney. There should be a market for him, and hopefully they can get somebody like Stewart or Mortensen--a AAAA pitcher with options.

[TheoShmeo]

DFAing Lillibridge while Youkilis is on his way to winning player of the month might be a bit unsightly for an image conscious team.

Sure but it's the right baseball move. I don't mean to be naive, but the more they are guided by putting the best team on the field, the more they will improve their chances of winning. And that in itself will be a bigger boost to their public relations than carrying around a utility player who has no utility.

In addition, if they really are guided to such an extent by PR considerations, Stewart is performing well at Pawtucket and they could promote him when the next starter goes down or they trade one of them. Because unless Stewart is a find, that Youks trade is going to continue to be a PR disaster. In fact, forcing the fans to watch Lillebridge when they have better internal options will almost certainly put a finer point on the stink.

[smastroyin]

They could DFA Lillibridge and say it is all to make that kid feel better. PR image, fixed!

More to the point, though, while we may think Lillibridge is useless, obviously the Red Sox thought differently and probably still do. I don't see him being DFA'd.

I'm not sure what Sweeney's value is out in the market. I made a pithy comment about trading Ellsbury in another thread, but in terms of Sweeney, if you can get some minor league talent (or a useful middle infielder) for him, then it makes sense. I don't think his skill set is so rare that you think about what value he might bring to next year's team if you can get some different kind of help. That said, if all you can get is another AAAA guy or 600 OPS shortstop, then I would also rather they option Nava, as much as I love his story.

[Dogman2]

He makes almost no money and plays defense very well and the BB/K ratio isn't in line with his career. There's always someone looking for a defensive outfielder who gets on base at a decent clip. Just because he has no real place in the Red Sox outfield doesn't mean he has no value to other teams. Especially since I believe he has an option left.

Ryan Sweeney's career numbers are .283/.340/.381. This season his OBP is .319. He doesn't get on base at a decent clip. He gets on base, for his career, a league average amount of time. He has no power and never has had any power and he is 27 and has hit his ceiling. He is the very definition of replaceable.

This needs to be emphasized. He's easily the best defensive OF on the roster while Ellsbury and Crawford are still out. We haven't seen Nava play a single game in Fenway's RF--and I'm not too sure I want to see that, either. Nava's not a butcher, but there's a definite defensive cost to making him, rather than Sweeney, the LH half of a RF platoon with Ross. So the question for the Sox is whether they really want a platoon in RF, or they want to give Ross the job and keep a LHH 4th OF around for occasional sub duty. If it's the former, I'd keep Sweeney. If the latter, deal Sweeney and keep Nava.

Sweeney may be the best defender on the current roster but that doesn't make him this unbelieveably valueable asset on the trade market.

The fact of the matter is Sweeney is very below average with the bat and very slightly above average (for his career, this season he is replacement level) with the glove. Does he have value? Yes, but not nearly as much as these two posts indicate. He is a 4th outfielder/platoon/24th man, nothing more.

Edited by Dogman2, 11 July 2012 - 09:20 AM.

[Harry Hooper]

He's a 29 year old career .280/.378/.435 Triple-A hitter that had a unfathomable hot streak for us and has cooled down. I don't see what the issue is?

Only that the shorthand seems to be he's been terrible for a month, and that is clearly not the case.

[Rasputin]

Only that the shorthand seems to be he's been terrible for a month, and that is clearly not the case.

He's been terrible for much longer than that.

[C4CRVT]

I have no issue whatsoever with trading Sweeney provided that:

• We get a lottery ticket prospect. I don't want to invest more in this year's team. Move his value a few levels down the system.
• We don't trade away any real prospects to package with him to get another starter who can be league average.

If the FO/ management force another unnecessary trade deadline on themselves, it will be the first time I will be ready to join the camp of the folks who say that the days of the FO/ management of this team being a smart bunch is officially over. This will be the straw that breaks the back of that camel for me.

[Eric Van]

I'd much prefer they cut Lillibridge to clear this logjam, but it's always been a viable solution, and in fact it's one I initially preferred before Kalish revealed his rust. The question now is, how often is Sweeney going to be your best option to start in RF? Given Ross's big platoon split, Nava coming back to earth and not having played there much the last few years, and the aforementioned Kalish rust which will keep him in AAA, I think the answer is at least once in a while. That makes me want to hang on to him.

Still, if they get an interesting C+ sort of prospect for him, maybe Kalish, Ciriaco, Iglesias, Lars, or Gomez ends up with Lillibridge's roster spot if he proves to be less than useful, and maybe the downgrade to starting RF is not enough to worry about.

[SoxScout]

With Jacoby Ellsbury expected to be activated from the disabled list as soon as today, teams are looking to take the Red Sox’ excess outfielders off their hands.

A club source said yesterday that the Sox are “open-minded” about trading away an outfielder and that “teams have called on several of them.”

In recent days, the names heard most frequently as being trade bait have been Ryan Sweeney and Daniel Nava. Scott Podsednik is on the disabled list. Ryan Kalish is back in Triple A and is widely considered to be part of the club’s 2013 plans, if not sooner. Because Cody Ross is a right-handed power bat that has fit in well with the club’s needs, he likely is the outfielder the team would be most reluctant to deal. The stock of the switch-hitting Nava is particularly high, with his improved defense and significant offensive contributions.

Sweeney’s name popped up during the All-Star Game as being shopped around, but the club source said the Sox are “not looking to move Sweeney.”

The Cubs are not interested in Sweeney, but they have two starting pitchers, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster, about whom the Red Sox are expected to inquire. A major league source said the Sox have expressed preliminary interest in Garza and Dempster, but he added that they are “not fully engaged yet.”

http://www.bostonher...leid=1061145130

[cahlton]

Apropos of nothing, I wonder who's leaking information about discussions between the Sox and Cubs. It can't be Chicago; we know what a tight ship Theo runs. You'd think Boston is still a tightly run ship too, at least as far as Cherington's subordinates are concerned. Is it Lucchino? Who else in baseball would use the phrase "not fully engaged yet?"

[YTF]

Apropos of nothing, I wonder who's leaking information about discussions between the Sox and Cubs. It can't be Chicago; we know what a tight ship Theo runs. You'd think Boston is still a tightly run ship too, at least as far as Cherington's subordinates are concerned. Is it Lucchino? Who else in baseball would use the phrase "not fully engaged yet?"

There may be others, but God damn......... can't you just hear those words coming out of his yapper.

[roundegotrip]

There's no way we go for the Dempster rental... right?

Garza is attractive (in his prime, good peripherals, AL east experience) if the price is reasonable and you can lock him up for a few years without breaking the bank, but I'm not sure either one of those conditions can be met.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

There's no way we go for the Dempster rental... right?

Garza is attractive (in his prime, good peripherals, AL east experience) if the price is reasonable and you can lock him up for a few years without breaking the bank, but I'm not sure either one of those conditions can be met.

Dempster is like a GM IQ test this year. His BABIP is .243, unsustainably low. His 86 IP this year have produced very good results, but this is the same guy who had a 4.80 ERA last year. In the NL, whose career WHIP in the NL is 1.432. Betting on him to be successful in the AL East seems like idiocy to me. And trading for him now would be buying high as there's little doubt he will regress over the second half due to that low BABIP.

We'll see if Ben is smart enough to avoid the bait.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Dempster xFIP by year

2008: 3.69
2009: 3.76
2010: 3.74
2011: 3.70
2012: 3.70

There's value there. So whether he's worth it or not obviously depends on the price. If you trade for him expecting to give you a 2 ERA, you'll be dissapointed. But, if you are looking for a 3.75-4 ERA? Maybe. That's what they are getting out of Lester & Doubront; it's not clear Dempster helps that much.

That being said, a team in the Sox position shouildn't be trading anything of value for a rental. Use assets for a player that would be under control for longer.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He's pitching in the crappiest division in baseball. Are you really willing to give up prospects to find out if he can pitch in the toughest?

He'll be lousy in the AL East, that's nearly guaranteed. His K rate is nothing special in the NL, and it will fall in the AL as he'll have to face a DH. That would be disastrous.

If I thought he could provide a 4.00 ERA I'd consider it. I don't.

[Savin Hillbilly]

He's pitching in the crappiest division in baseball. Are you really willing to give up prospects to find out if he can pitch in the toughest?

I basically agree, but it does depend somewhat on the prospects in question, doesn't it? I think that given Dempster's age and contract status, he might be surprisingly cheap.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I basically agree, but it does depend somewhat on the prospects in question, doesn't it? I think that given Dempster's age and contract status, he might be surprisingly cheap.

He's never going to have better numbers in a season than he does right now. So any trade for him will be at the height of his value and so will cost a lot.

[Savin Hillbilly]

He's never going to have better numbers in a season than he does right now. So any trade for him will be at the height of his value and so will cost a lot.

I don't think it makes sense to refer to a 35-year-old as "at the height of his value," no matter how good a year he's having. And I think the fact that midseason acquisitions will no longer come with draft picks attached will have an especially big impact on guys like Dempster as opposed to mid-career guys like Garza. Anybody who trades for Dempster is getting two months of good but not dominant pitching, plus the right to be first in line to offer him way too good a contract for a guy his age. And that's all. I'm not sure that's going to net as high a prospect haul as you think.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I don't think it makes sense to refer to a 35-year-old as "at the height of his value," no matter how good a year he's having. And I think the fact that midseason acquisitions will no longer come with draft picks attached will have an especially big impact on guys like Dempster as opposed to mid-career guys like Garza. Anybody who trades for Dempster is getting two months of good but not dominant pitching, plus the right to be first in line to offer him way too good a contract for a guy his age. And that's all. I'm not sure that's going to net as high a prospect haul as you think.

If he goes to the AL East I will bet a substantial amount of money he won't even be good. His BABIP shows this year's success to be a mirage.

[yecul]

Paying 80% hoping for 70% and getting 40% is in line with the teams philosophy so I bet it happens.

[Harry Hooper]

There's a 6-man rotation now. Add Dempster and go to a 7-man? Sounds like nonsense unless Theo's cooking up another 3-4 team package.