222 replies to this topic

[budcrew08]

At the break at 43-43. Some are disappointed, others are pleased just because of the horrible rash and timing of injuries. (at least we're not the Phillies, amirite?)

So where do you think the Sox end up record-wise at the end of the year? Please explain your answers.

Edited by budcrew08, 09 July 2012 - 12:21 AM.

[TomRicardo]

I wanted to pick 90 wins :-(

[rembrat]

86-89. The same range I picked before the season even started.

My reason is still the same, too many good teams in the league.

[budcrew08]

I wanted to pick 90 wins :-(

You can now pick 90.

[ShaneTrot]

The offense is acceptable, the defense is passable, the bullpen is surprisingly useful, but the starters suck. I say they finish 5 games under .500.

[Laser Show]

This team, no matter how healthy it gets, will go nowhere if Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz do not step up their game.

[Manramsclan]

I said 86-90 wins, but I think at the lower end of that spectrum.

Ellsbury returning is going to provide a huge boost to this entire lineup. A healthy Pedrioa will improve over what he contributed over the last few months. All of a sudden the 1-9 looks like a real major league lineup.

Whether or not Crawford comes back remains to be seen, but I have faith that Ross, Sweeney and Nava can man the other two OF positions quite well if deployed correctly.

I find it unlikely that Lester's and Beckett's struggles will be as bad in the second half as they have been in the first.

This team can win 43 plus games in the second "half" with Ellsbury being the biggest boost offensively and defensively.

That's ten games over .500 to get to 86 wins. Seems like a lot doesn't it?

Not sure if that will net them a play-in game, but I'd like to see this team rip off some wins right away after the break. If they don't getting to that 86 win plateau is even going to be difficult.

[Rasputin]

86-89. The same range I picked before the season even started.

My reason is still the same, too many good teams in the league.

This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

You either thought they would have this astonishing rash of injuries or you think their replacements have been just as good and frankly, I don't think either is credible.

[jtn46]

This team, no matter how healthy it gets, will go nowhere if Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz do not step up their game.

Well, more than likely, they won't get healthy. Right now they're still well in contention and yet just fielded a last-place September call-up lineup. Players will come back, but more injuries will come too, and given this team's track record the last few years, players will probably underperform precisely because they insist on playing through an injury, if that's not already happening. If that's the way it plays out, hopefully they just roll with it and let the players who need rest/surgery get rest/surgery so they can start 2013 100% and continue to give guys like Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Kalish, etc... regular AB's so they can determine exactly what they have (and just to be safe, scan the entire 40-man roster's elbow ligaments, maybe Andrews has some discounts if he does TJ surgeries in bulk).

[Rasputin]

Our pythag, according to MLB.com is at an 88 win pace. I have a hard time believing that isn't going to be better.

We'd have to win at a 120+ win pace to win 90. That's pretty unlikely unless everything goes right from here on out.

We won at a 111 win pace over 80 games in May, June, July last year and even that wouldn't be good enough.

I voted >90 but the math makes that really unlikely.

Let's go with 88 since it won't let me retract my vote.

[shepard50]

We are adding an upgrade in CF. We have Pedroia, Buchholz and Bailey coming back soon after the All-Star break. Gonzalez is beginning to find his stroke, he's hitting the ball hard again. Is it possible for more things to go wrong from here to September than went wrong in the first four months of the season? I am betting against it. I have to feel like we can pick up 4 wins over .500 from here to end up near ninety wins.

Really, the Starting Pitching is the weakest part of the club once we get a few players back. We have a powerful offence and a great bullpen. We just need Lester, Beckett and Buchholz to remember who they are and we should be able to pick up 1-2 games a month.

[OCD SS]

We are adding an upgrade in CF. We have Pedroia, Buchholz and Bailey coming back soon after the All-Star break. Gonzalez is beginning to find his stroke, he's hitting the ball hard again.

The great thing with this line of thinking is that when the next player gets hurt (or sucks) we can all add them to the list of great "additions" that the team will have soon!

[fineyoungarm]

Just over .500. Fairly impressive considering the injuries and performances of Lester and Beckett. (I'm giving Bucholz a pass right now, although that probably is illogical.)

If (Kipling) "those two" had managed two more wins each in the first half ...

And I'm not at all "psyched" about getting the starters back, because, except for Ellsbury I'm reading the handwriting on the wall. CC is practically giving us an affidavit that his elbow remains problematic. Bailey - September. Pedroia - until there is some real info to the contrary, mid to late August (at best) and then we'll find out if surgery is in order. (An infield Peter Reiser idea haunts me.)

[Snodgrass'Muff]

86-90

They will get better as they get healthier, but they put themselves in a deep enough hole where 90+ seems unlikely.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Laser Show nailed it.

The biggest problem to the season -- inconsistent starting pitching by the three rotation "locks" leading to average-to-poor overall performance -- is unfortunately not something likely to be addressed fully by folks coming off of the DL. Maybe Buchholz comes back and pitches great, but that's still only one of the three guys who need to step up. So I'm skeptical about Buchholz, with have no faith whatsoever that the current Jon Lester or Josh Beckett will improve.

And the second half schedule is simply brutal. Good team after good team, with another West Coast swing thrown in for added discomfort.

So I went with <80 wins, in what has to be the most disappointing Red Sox season since 1997. Mostly because of injuries, this is the most under-performing roster that I've ever seen. So let's say 77-79 wins. I hope I'm wrong.

[JMDurron]

I've downgraded from my preseason 91-95 window to 86-90, and I think it's at the low end of that range. The injuries are just too widely distributed, the key remaining pieces are underperforming too badly, and the schedule difficulty cancels out a large degree of talent upgrades to be seen when players return from injury, assuming that any of them do so without suffering further setbacks. At this point, I expect Gonzalez to end up in the ICU due to flu-related dehydration, or something equally ridiculous. The entire list of players who can reasonably be expected to stay healthy and productive through the second half of the season consists of David Ortiz. The base roster is still obscenely talented and probably close to the talent level of the Yankees and Rangers, but that's irrelevant because we will never see that roster playing together in 2012.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

86-90

They will get better as they get healthier, but they put themselves in a deep enough hole where 90+ seems unlikely.

Health isn't the issue. The issue is that the highest-paid, biggest healthy names right now are performing FAR below their usual capacities. Their top three starting pitchers have ERA+ of 96, 97, and 78; that's completely unacceptable for the amount of money they're being paid. The highest-paid position player, the one who was supposed to be hitting 35+ home runs a year, has 6 at the break with an OPS+ of 97. Unacceptable. Pedroia has an OPS+ of 93. That's awful.

Getting other players healthy isn't going to solve the above issues, and the above issues are the main reason this team has played such mediocre, uninspired baseball through the first half of the year. If Beckett and Lester don't get their heads out of their asses and start pitching the way they're supposed to, if Buchholz doesn't get straightened out and healthy, if Gonzo continues to do a mean Jose Offerman impersonation, and if Pedroia doesn't snap out of it then this team isn't going to win 75 games this season.

The only players playing well so far are Ortiz, Ross and Salty. Nava and Middlebrooks have been helpful, but haven't played as much as some of these other guys due to coming up later (and of course WMB getting hurt). This has been, by and large, a team-wide disaster this season.

[Otis Foster]

The highest-paid position player, the one who was supposed to be hitting 35+ home runs a year, has 6 at the break with an OPS+ of 97. Unacceptable.

No longer a SSS. At some point, we're going to have to deal with this question: Is something (still) wrong with him or was the trade and subsequent contract a gross miscalculation?

[TheoShmeo]

I chose 82-85 but if I had to choose a second option, it would be .500 or below. My gut is actually closer to the latter and I chose the former only because it seems inconceivable that a team this talented could end up at or below .500.

Why the negativity?

- strength of schedule of opposition

- as a rule in 2012, the Sox pitchers don't perform well against good hitters and their hitters don't perform well against good pitchers

- As SJH said, they've gotten way below average production from all but a few of their star players

- I have no reason to believe that the supposed Big Three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz have the wherewithal or drive or both to perform better

- You have to love what they've gotten from Doubront, Morales and Cook, but who would be surprised if the pixie dust completely wore off at least two of them?

- Dice is Dice is Dice; we're never going to see anything much better or different than we've seen this year, which is just a continuation of what we've seen for most of his time in Boston

- Guys like Nava who have performed above expectations are evening out

- Same goes for the pen, at least recently

- The whole "keep it together until the cavalry returns" mantra ignores that Crawford would probably, as Edes suggested, be better served by taking a pass on 2012 and, even if he doesn't, may well produce poorly again, Ells' rehab is going slowly and it's hard to believe that he'll just click into 2011 Ellsbury any time soon, and Bailey's return is still a ways away

- I'm not a Bobby Hater but as the season progresses, it would not at all be surprising if many on this team just tuned him out or stopped playing for him; they apparently did it to a guy who they loved or at least once loved, and Bobby will very likely find a way to alienate many of them with his lack of filter and "look at me" tendencies

I hope I'm wrong and overreacting to a bad stretch. But I don't think that I am.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 09 July 2012 - 08:28 AM.

[yecul]

Thing have to get better. They can't be this snake bit forever. I expect them to play better and win more games. So mid 80s is my thought... Which is a step up from the current pace.

I expected upper 80s prior to the season.

[Foulkey Reese]

82-85 because of what SJH pointed out.

Unless our big starters can really improve in the second half, this team is pretty much sunk. That combined with the killer schedule dashes any hope I may have once had.

[RingoOSU]

They're 11-7 vs the NL, the easy part of the schedule is over. too many AL east teams, they'll be lucky to get 86 wins, let alone 90.

[86spike]

I think they'll struggle to stay just above .500 and will get somewhere around 84 wins. They should try to trade off expendable assets at the deadline... but as long as the stupid sell-out streak is alive, they won't. This is a great year to be sellers and restock for the long haul. It's a shame that they won't do it.

[canderson]

I'd love to stick with my pre-season forecast of 86 wins, but I think they need a lot of luck to reach 84 given the pitching situation.

We've received better-than-expected production from a lot of guys who finally have leveled off, our bullpen's been probably a bit better than it rightfully is, Ortiz I doubt can mirror his first-half numbers. I don't see Beckett, Lester and DiceK suddenly finding magic for more than three consecutive starts each.

[Savin Hillbilly]

This is a great year to be sellers and restock for the long haul.

I think this is true, and they may yet do it, but if so, the deals will probably happen after the season. Their most valuable assets--Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester and Buchholz--have all been hurt and/or ineffective. None of them is a sell-high candidate right now. We might as well give them the rest of the season to re-establish their market value and sell over the winter. I said 86-90 wins on the assumption that this is what will happen.

That's not to say, of course, that if somebody knocks Ben's socks off with a prospect package for one of those guys at the deadline, he might not pull the trigger.

[Super Nomario]

- I have no reason to believe that the supposed Big Three of Beckett, Lester and Buchholz have the wherewithal or drive or both to perform better

Per Fangraphs, Lester has a FIP of 3.57 and an XFIP of 3.60. Beckett's at 3.69 and 3.98, respectively. Buchholz still looks terrible by these measures (5.44 and 4.68), but he was pitching much better before he got hurt. There's plenty of reason to believe we'll get more out of the top of the rotation in the second half.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I'm kinda shocked at how many people went with 86-90, even if you're hedging with "low end" of that.

They'd need to go 43-33 from here on out just to hit 86 wins. After watching this team for 86 games, I simply can't understand that kind of optimism.

They have 12 games left against the Yankees. They have six games left against the Rangers. They have yet another West Coast trip where they play nine straight games against LAA, SEA, OAK. They finish out with 24 straight games against the AL East, against whom they are currently 14-19.

In terms of weak sisters, they have four against MIN and four against KC, and that's about it. Everything else is nothing but very competitive teams - four at CLE, three home against DET, etc.

Even if the starting pitching was performing fairly optimally, the second half is intimidating. With their current team ERA of 4.22 - 10th in the AL - it's very hard to see a path to much better than .500 the rest of the way out. Nor do I think the Sox standing at 2nd in runs scored will hold up. Maybe Papi will continue to rake, and maybe A-Gon will come around, and maybe Ells will come out of the box firing, but I'm pessimistic on Salty, Nava, Aviles, Pods, etc., matching their first halves.

At this point, if they scratch out 86 wins I'll stand up and applaud lustily. That would be a significant accomplishment with what's staring them in the face.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Health isn't the issue. The issue is that the highest-paid, biggest healthy names right now are performing FAR below their usual capacities. Their top three starting pitchers have ERA+ of 96, 97, and 78; that's completely unacceptable for the amount of money they're being paid. The highest-paid position player, the one who was supposed to be hitting 35+ home runs a year, has 6 at the break with an OPS+ of 97. Unacceptable. Pedroia has an OPS+ of 93. That's awful.

No, health is absolutely a major issue. Ellsbury alone is an enormous upgrade. Getting him back will make the offense a lot better, and it's already the 2nd highest scoring offense in the majors. That will help the run differential. Pedroia is hitting poorly, but has been injured and is currently on the DL. Presumably, he'll get healthy and play more like he's expected to. Another big improvement. Buchholz was recovering from a nasty injury early on and was clearly still rusty to start the season. Then he got hurt just as he was hitting his stride. I'm fairly confident in him being a solid pitcher for the stretch run.

Getting healthy will make this team significantly better. It won't fix everything, but saying health isn't the problem is ignoring a lot of what this team is currently missing.

Getting other players healthy isn't going to solve the above issues, and the above issues are the main reason this team has played such mediocre, uninspired baseball through the first half of the year. If Beckett and Lester don't get their heads out of their asses and start pitching the way they're supposed to, if Buchholz doesn't get straightened out and healthy, if Gonzo continues to do a mean Jose Offerman impersonation, and if Pedroia doesn't snap out of it then this team isn't going to win 75 games this season.

This is just ridiculous. They've played .500 baseball with all the injuries and under performance. Expecting them to suddenly drop to a .421 winning percentage (32 out of the remaining 76) is based on what, exactly?

The only players playing well so far are Ortiz, Ross and Salty. Nava and Middlebrooks have been helpful, but haven't played as much as some of these other guys due to coming up later (and of course WMB getting hurt). This has been, by and large, a team-wide disaster this season.

Sure. And 81-81 would be a disaster of a finish. 75 wins is insanely pessimistic, though. All I'm saying is that getting healthy will make them better. Not better enough to reach my initial prediction of 91-95 wins (92 to be more specific), but improved enough to pull off 86, maybe as many as 88 wins.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 09 July 2012 - 10:51 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

This is just ridiculous. They've played .500 baseball with all the injuries and under performance. Expecting them to suddenly drop to a .421 winning percentage (32 out of the remaining 76) is based on what, exactly?

That they've shown zero signs of improving in the areas where they're not holding up injuries as an excuse. As noted above. Turn Agonz back into his 2011 form and the picture looks quite a bit different. Lester and Beckett pitching like they should be would help as well. But I don't have a magic wand to make that happen. Lester's seemingly getting worse start by start (11 baserunners in less than 5 innings last night). And if they fall out of the race completely I expect a lot more kids to be played and the team to play worse, which would be fine.

Sure. And 81-81 would be a disaster of a finish. 75 wins is insanely pessimistic, though.

We'll see. They haven't played with any consistency this year, that's for damn sure. There isn't a single part of the team that's not woefully underperforming so far this year.

[Toe Nash]

That they've shown zero signs of improving in the areas where they're not holding up injuries as an excuse. As noted above. Turn Agonz back into his 2011 form and the picture looks quite a bit different. Lester and Beckett pitching like they should be would help as well.

Gonzalez did just have an 18-game hitting streak, and while he showed little power during it he had 3 doubles against NYY, one of which was crushed into the triangle.

Beckett is either on or off this year, seemingly without warning. There doesn't seem to be a pattern here, but it's plausible that he is more "on" than "off" going forward.

Lester, I have no idea. He's perhaps been the most disappointing.

[czar]

One note about Lester; his xFIP is right in line with last year and actually below his career average.

0.326 BABIP and 66.9% strand rate, both on the "unlucky" side of his career norms.

Other than his LD% being a bit high in the first half, I don't think he's a guy to be terribly concerned about going forward.

[mikeford]

One note about Lester; his xFIP is right in line with last year and actually below his career average.

0.326 BABIP and 66.9% strand rate, both on the "unlucky" side of his career norms.

Other than his LD% being a bit high in the first half, I don't think he's a guy to be terribly concerned about going forward.

How about the fact that he doesn't strike anyone out anymore?

I'd say he's a fairly massive concern going forward.

[ShaneTrot]

One note about Lester; his xFIP is right in line with last year and actually below his career average.

0.326 BABIP and 66.9% strand rate, both on the "unlucky" side of his career norms.

Other than his LD% being a bit high in the first half, I don't think he's a guy to be terribly concerned about going forward.

We keep saying this and it is logical but we need him to be better. Who had more to prove than Lester, Buchholz and Beckett this year? They are all below league average. The Sox are 12-20 in games started by Lester and Beckett, let that roll around in your brain for awhile. I am amazed that people are picking the Sox to finish above .500. They are 14-19 vs the AL East, they are 5-9 vs the AL West. They are -4 wins against their Pythag record. Why? I cannot for the life of me fathom how a team can be +43 in run differential and be .500. Every time they have a chance to blow a game they do. They have been doing this since last September, the GM and manager have been replaced, it might be time to replace a few players.

[Super Nomario]

How about the fact that he doesn't strike anyone out anymore?

I'd say he's a fairly massive concern going forward.

Lester only struck out 48 in 67 2/3 IP in April and May (which isn't terrible but not what we expect, certainly), but he's at 46 Ks in 44 2/3 IP since 5/1.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

I picked 88 because it's a really nice day today and I'm in a good mood. 82-85 seems more likely, though. Too many holes in the boat this year, and our underperforming pitching staff is seemingly being coached by baseball's version of Chance the Gardener.

[Plympton91]

No, health is absolutely a major issue. Ellsbury alone is an enormous upgrade. Getting him back will make the offense a lot better, and it's already the 2nd highest scoring offense in the majors. That will help the run differential.

And don't underestimate how big a difference Ellsbury will be on defense as well, even if he doesn't hit like an MVP. None of the people playing CF since Ellsbury went down have the defenive prowess to be everyday CF, except for maybe Byrd (and he couldn't hit). If you put Ellsbury in CF and Middlebrooks on 3B last night, Lester gives up 2 runs, not 5.

Pedroia is hitting poorly, but has been injured and is currently on the DL. Presumably, he'll get healthy and play more like he's expected to. Another big improvement.

Exactly this latest streak of futility comes with Pedroia and Middlebrooks out, on top of everything else.

That they've shown zero signs of improving in the areas where they're not holding up injuries as an excuse. As noted above. Turn Agonz back into his 2011 form and the picture looks quite a bit different.

Weren't watching this weekend? Or the past 18 games?

Edited by Plympton91, 09 July 2012 - 12:48 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Weren't watching this weekend? Or the past 18 games?

Yes, I was watching. Were you? In those 18 games he had a total of 6 extra base hits, 5 doubles and a HR. His OPS in that streak was 881, still way off from his mark last year.

He's not right, and he's not back yet.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Yes, I was watching. Were you? In those 18 games he had a total of 6 extra base hits, 5 doubles and a HR. His OPS in that streak was 881, still way off from his mark last year.

He's not right, and he's not back yet.

Agreed. It's possible he's coming around, but I don't see how you can watch a guy with a lifetime rate of HR/22 PA only hit a HR every 61 PA and not think something is completely wrong. Yeah, yeah, he's leading the league in doubles. I, personally, am not encouraged by that.

[Sprowl]

This team is a toxic mess, and will continue to underperform. Given the increasingly tough schedule going forward, the bad feeling in the clubhouse, the dysfunctional management, the apparent regression to mediocrity by the starters, and the ongoing injury siege, 82-85 might be generous.

Not having to watch the Red Sox for the next four days, I'm in a generous mood: 82-85 wins.

[mauidano]

I voted 86-90. Feeling closer to 86 than 90! We have had just some incredible horrific luck. Lots of potential. Just can't play from behind every game. Bats are solid. Not gonna score 7 runs every game but FFS can we keep the other team from scoring 4 in the first? Ells could be the spark, a healthy Pedey, WMB & Gonzo playing to expectation could get us right. I have no expectation for Crawford. Would not be surprised if he even shut it down. Salty reminds more and more of Varitek at the plate every game. Stunned when he gets a hit. Bullpen is solid. Like CC, no expectation for Bailey. Starting pitching will make or break this second half without a doubt. Someone, anyone needs to take that ball and be an ace. Right now, we got nothing.

[Reverend]

Agreed. It's possible he's coming around, but I don't see how you can watch a guy with a lifetime rate of HR/22 PA only hit a HR every 61 PA and not think something is completely wrong. Yeah, yeah, he's leading the league in doubles. I, personally, am not encouraged by that.

He also walked a mere 3 times during the streak, which suggests he wasn't necessarily seeing the ball much better. His .412 BABIP for the stretch would, unfortunately, support that as well.

[Kull]

I'm kinda shocked at how many people went with 86-90, even if you're hedging with "low end" of that.

They'd need to go 43-33 from here on out just to hit 86 wins. After watching this team for 86 games, I simply can't understand that kind of optimism.

They have 12 games left against the Yankees. They have six games left against the Rangers. They have yet another West Coast trip where they play nine straight games against LAA, SEA, OAK. They finish out with 24 straight games against the AL East, against whom they are currently 14-19.

In terms of weak sisters, they have four against MIN and four against KC, and that's about it. Everything else is nothing but very competitive teams - four at CLE, three home against DET, etc.

Even if the starting pitching was performing fairly optimally, the second half is intimidating. With their current team ERA of 4.22 - 10th in the AL - it's very hard to see a path to much better than .500 the rest of the way out. Nor do I think the Sox standing at 2nd in runs scored will hold up. Maybe Papi will continue to rake, and maybe A-Gon will come around, and maybe Ells will come out of the box firing, but I'm pessimistic on Salty, Nava, Aviles, Pods, etc., matching their first halves.

At this point, if they scratch out 86 wins I'll stand up and applaud lustily. That would be a significant accomplishment with what's staring them in the face.

It's all about the schedule. This team has not demonstrated an ability to consistently beat good teams or good pitching, and the only guy coming back who wasn't part of the first half performance (mostly against the lower tier of both leagues) is Ellsbury. Crawford is unlikely to outperform the guys who subbed for him and although Bailey might help, the bullpen hasn't really been the concern. So any hope based on the "reinforcements are coming!" is largely illusory. The other major issue (besides remaining schedule) is the starting pitching. Lester and Beckett might suddenly figure out how to pitch again, but their performance against the Yankees in this series is the real measure of who they are this year. Less than meh. It'll take a miracle to reach 80 wins, but mid-to-high 70s is the more likely outcome.

[geoduck no quahog]

....If you put Ellsbury in CF ...Lester gives up 2 runs, not 5....

And ends up on the DL for the rest of the season.

[czar]

How about the fact that he doesn't strike anyone out anymore?

I'd say he's a fairly massive concern going forward.

xFIP takes strikeout rate into account.

His K% for the year is down ~3% (roughly one batter every 10 IP) although that is after a rough May. His June K% was right in line with his career average.

No one is talking about how he improved his K/BB and is now over 3 for the first time since 2009.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

That they've shown zero signs of improving in the areas where they're not holding up injuries as an excuse. As noted above. Turn Agonz back into his 2011 form and the picture looks quite a bit different. Lester and Beckett pitching like they should be would help as well. But I don't have a magic wand to make that happen. Lester's seemingly getting worse start by start (11 baserunners in less than 5 innings last night). And if they fall out of the race completely I expect a lot more kids to be played and the team to play worse, which would be fine.

You're blatantly ignoring my point and beating the crap out of a man made of straw. I'm not saying the non-hurt players are all playing to expectations. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to improve. I'm saying the team will improve as it gets healthier. If you disagree with that, feel free to make an argument against it. If not, I'd appreciate it if you would stop arguing with something I'm not saying.

We'll see. They haven't played with any consistency this year, that's for damn sure. There isn't a single part of the team that's not woefully underperforming so far this year.

Except the bullpen.

[Sprowl]

xFIP takes strikeout rate into account.

His K% for the year is down ~3% (roughly one batter every 10 IP) although that is after a rough May. His June K% was right in line with his career average.

No one is talking about how he improved his K/BB and is now over 3 for the first time since 2009.

Rate stats are useful as a corrective to incomplete observation or selective memory, but they don't tell the central story of Lester's deterioration: his fastball velocity continues to edge downward, and he's not getting swings-and-misses on his cutter. The lost of his best stuff and his signature out pitch has made Lester an ordinary pitcher. Until he gets the cutter back, whether that means better movement or sharper location, he's not going to be ace material again.

His body language and facial expressions speak volumes too. He's an increasingly impatient, truculent and pudgy character who is now years away from his peak performance with the Red Sox.

[czar]

Rate stats are useful as a corrective to incomplete observation or selective memory, but they don't tell the central story of Lester's deterioration: his fastball velocity continues to edge downward, and he's not getting swings-and-misses on his cutter. The lost of his best stuff and his signature out pitch has made Lester an ordinary pitcher. Until he gets the cutter back, whether that means better movement or sharper location, he's not going to be ace material again.

C'mon, he's not an ordinary pitcher. You might be right that he's not a top-5 guy in the AL like he was in 2009 and 2010 (which probably were the peak of his career), but "ordinary pitcher?" His xFIP+ in 2012 (a down year) is 88. That's eleventh among qualified SP in the American League.

His SwStr% is the same it was last year and is still above league average. His whiff rate on the cutter in 2012 is 13.13%, down only slightly from his career rate of 14.56%. But more importantly it was 18.87% in June, so while his aggregate might not be hitting the same peak it did 3-4 years ago; it's still an effective pitch.

And you're using body language and facial expressions? Isn't that something we tried to rub out when everyone wanted Buchholz and Lester off the team when they first came up because they were "headcases?" We know nothing about what is going on inside the players' heads (or at least 1/100th of what we know from watching the results in the stat column) so unless Lester threw off his glove and flipped the double birds to the press box before walking off last night, I don't think it's fair to call him out on facial expressions.

[roundegotrip]

Not to beat this point into the ground, but instead of hanging our hopes on the offense improving in the second half, we need to be hoping for a miraculous improvement in starting pitching. Here are some scary stats from b-ref:

Boston's relievers have entered games with the 2nd most inherited baserunners in all of MLB (2nd in AL), but are 6th in MLB (3rd in AL) in % of inherited runners allowed to score.

Boston's starters have enjoyed more run support per 27 outs than any other team's in MLB, and it's not really close (0.4 runs / 27 more than the Cardinals', who are 2nd).

You can make the argument that our starters have gotten more help from their bullpen and offense than any other rotation in the AL, and possibly all of MLB. And yet...

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

You're blatantly ignoring my point and beating the crap out of a man made of straw. I'm not saying the non-hurt players are all playing to expectations. I'm not saying they're guaranteed to improve. I'm saying the team will improve as it gets healthier. If you disagree with that, feel free to make an argument against it. If not, I'd appreciate it if you would stop arguing with something I'm not saying.

I've already made my rebuttal and I'm not going to do so again. The injured players are not going to shore up areas of need upon their return, unless they can fix the starting pitching and Gonzalez.

Except the bullpen.

Which blew about 6 games in April and has recently shown signs (Miller, Atchison) of regressing back to normal levels. Which is....underperforming.

[Reverend]

I'm about 90% sure you two are talking past each other over the slippage between "health is the issue" and "health is an issue."

The difference, of course, is huge. Certainly, health is an issue. But would controlling for health mean the team would be (have been?) in contention of not? That is a huge difference between the two articulations.

I have a certain amount of faith in SJH to believe he's not claiming that the health issue has made no difference, but rather I beleive he is saying that even with "average" health luck, this team would still be in bad shape and that is what needs to be addressed.

Of course, I could be wrong, and SJH might just be a big poopie head--who knows?