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Youk game thread
#1
Posted 08 July 2012 - 02:51 PM
BABIP <3 Youks
Youks gets another hit on a flare to left-center, and is now 15 for 52 with the White Sox. OPS w/CHW > .900
#2
Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:36 PM
We need this thread so that we can root for Youkilis to our hearts' content.
BABIP <3 Youks
Youks gets another hit on a flare to left-center, and is now 15 for 52 with the White Sox. OPS w/CHW > .900
A walk and a hit! Both leading to 1st and 2nd none out. Both happening in their scoring innings (3 and 4). Hes right there stroking the flames of the rally.
Serious question, is it even logical to cite BABIP on a short sample? I see this all the time:
Player A has, lets say, a stellar 4 game series against someone. He goes 10 for 16 or something. Then someone comes along, his BABIP IS UNSUSTAINABLE! Hes just lucky! Uhhh no. He was hitting lasers all weekend. Whats unsustainable is hitting major league pitching at a 625 clip.
In addition, shouldnt one look deeper than just BABIP? Such as examining line drive percentages and such?
I think BABIP can be entirely misunderstood and overused (not saying you are). Ive been wrong before though. And I do realize that could have been a throw-away line in regards to this hit that could be considered lucky (flare) ...thought Id throw out the thoughts anyway.
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 08 July 2012 - 03:43 PM.
#3
Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:42 PM
Worship of BABIP, like most forms of worship, is about superstition not rationality, however.
Also, another double for Youks, who is now 2-for-3 with a walk on the afternoon.
#4
Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:46 PM
Maybe the stuff in former red sox thread could be moved here to complete the record. For posterity, Sprowlie!
#5
Posted 08 July 2012 - 03:48 PM
I agree that to be rational, one should expect BABIP regression only for pitchers, and even then with a substantial correction for quality of contact (LD% has an irreducible element of subjectivity, but it is still useful). A better correction would come from HitFX data, but those aren't free to us nerds at large.
Worship of BABIP, like most forms of worship, is about superstition not rationality, however.
Also, another double for Youks, who is now 2-for-3 with a walk on the afternoon.
An RBI double leading to their 8th run! Fanning the flames of every rally. lol.
Season totals to date (just for hahas):
Youkilis. 258/338/423. 7 HRs 18 BB 46 K
A Gonzalez 284/330/417. 6 HRs 23 BB 63 K
HitFX data? Interesting. Good response too. Im somewhat aware of some advanced stats, but not all. that will be some reading for me at some point.
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 08 July 2012 - 03:57 PM.
#6
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:16 PM
Why are the White Sox dressed like the Phillies?
Edited by Ed Hillel, 08 July 2012 - 04:19 PM.
#7
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:32 PM
#8
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:33 PM
3-4 with a walk.
#9
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:36 PM
Damn. I have been gardening and have missed all but one of his ABs. Stupidly didn't set the DVR, so I appreciate the descriptions. I take it "nearly killed himself" is hyperbole.....Youkilis nearly killed himself sliding into first, but he gets an infield hit and sets the table with none out.
#10
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:41 PM
Damn. I have been gardening and have missed all but one of his ABs. Stupidly didn't set the DVR, so I appreciate the descriptions. I take it "nearly killed himself" is hyperbole.....
He's still the runner on first base, now with two outs, so rumors of his death were exaggerated.
#11
Posted 08 July 2012 - 04:46 PM
Ventura is pulling a Leyland here. This ump has been terrible. The pitch to Dunn was probably 6-8 inches outside.
#12
Posted 08 July 2012 - 05:04 PM
#13
Posted 09 July 2012 - 05:46 PM
More salt in the gaping wounds of the
#14
Posted 09 July 2012 - 05:54 PM
#15
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:31 PM
#16
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:36 PM
Next thing you know Youkilis will be named to the All-Star team as a replacement.Thats perfect.
#17
Posted 09 July 2012 - 06:43 PM
According to the current "wisdom" I'm reading on Sosh, he'll be in traction for the rest of the year, any minute now, so this is an aberration, a small sample size, and a great big nothing.
His games played in each of the past four years: 136, 102, 120, and 55 out of 86 this year.
So yeah, chances are he's going to get hurt again. It's what he does.
#18
Posted 09 July 2012 - 10:12 PM
I'm so glad they got rid of this bum. Who needs a 3B with an OPS around 1 right now? Good riddance.
Agreed. And thanks to unloading Youkilis we can enjoy the sizzling -51 OPS+ from Brent Lillibridge.
#19
Posted 09 July 2012 - 10:37 PM
...from his cabin
MichaelYouks could see the lights ofNew York CityBoston burning like the fires of hell. He felt an enormous sense of relief. He was out of it now.
#20
Posted 09 July 2012 - 11:41 PM
His games played in each of the past four years: 136, 102, 120, and 55 out of 86 this year.
So yeah, chances are he's going to get hurt again. It's what he does.
Sounds like a horrible bench option/emergency starter, especially when you can bring in a Nick Punto, Oswald Lillibridge, or Mauro Gomez to roll the ball to first base.
Even if he does remain healthy, though, that longstanding poor work ethic of his is likely to rear its ugly head. I'd be surprised if he's even showing up to the park for the games by September.
Edited by Ed Hillel, 09 July 2012 - 11:44 PM.
#21
Posted 10 July 2012 - 06:10 AM
Sounds like a horrible bench option/emergency starter, especially when you can bring in a Nick Punto, Oswald Lillibridge, or Mauro Gomez to roll the ball to first base.
Even if he does remain healthy, though, that longstanding poor work ethic of his is likely to rear its ugly head. I'd be surprised if he's even showing up to the park for the games by September.
Of course, the fact that he and his manager couldn't stand each other works against this little theory working out.
That awesome work ethic didn't stop him from falling apart like a '53 DeSoto in each of the last four years. I too loved a healthy and productive Youkilis, but over the last four years he's only been one of those things and this year in Boston he was neither.
#22
Posted 10 July 2012 - 07:56 AM
#23
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:37 PM
His games played in each of the past four years: 136, 102, 120, and 55 out of 86 this year.
So yeah, chances are he's going to get hurt again. It's what he does.
The issue I have with this line of reasoning is the following:
Jacoby Ellsbury games played the past four years: 153, 18, 158, 7 out of 86 (Total: 336)
Kevin Youkilis games played the past four years: 136, 102, 120, and 55 out of 86 this year (Total: 413)
Dustin Pedroia games played the past four years: 154, 75, 159, 74 out of 86 (Total: 474)
Kevin's going to catch up with Dustin soon (Games played). You do three year totals and they are even closer. I just threw Ellsbury in there for haha's.
So, Dustin (and Jacoby), it's "what they do". Should we sell (low) on these guys now?
When Kevin played 102 games it was a freak injury to his thumb. An injury very similar to the one Dustin has now. But somehow that's indictive of Kevin and his health, but not Dustin.
And with Dustin, even though he's currently in the lead for games played, he really should have been shut-down in a lot of the games. Take this year for instance, "yay!!" he played more games, but "booo!" at a shitty clip. We got a month of Punto production - but he played the games! Similar to what could be happening with Adrian Gonzalez. He's playing the games sure (last year after the all-star break, and this year), but it's as a glorified singles hitter. He admitted to a weakened shoulder for last year's half, what about this year? Is he injured? Could be. But, because he's "playing the games" is that better? Than someone who say plays 130 games at an All-Star level and takes another 30 off (also remember the times Youkilis has to sit during interleague games, can we add another 15-20 over a couple of years - and what about sitting this year during the lineup shuffling)?
The other thing is, it's not like we are evaluating Kevin Youkilis, to determine if we should give him a four year extension. We are examining Kevin Youkilis based on the needs of this year's team and Kevin finishing the year. Another 80 odd games. I don't think he's that broken down, with has gout and AIDS, to the point where he could crumble at the drop of a hat. Evidence from these past few weeks (and even since coming off the DL with the Sox) is that he's moving a lot better at third base, looks healthier, and is swinging the bat like the All-Star that he is. Personally, I want this .380+ obp/ .480+ slg guy on my team. It would have helped us win games over the past few weeks.
That's why I have issues with this continued, bury Kevin, because he's almost a corpse, line-of-thinking. You can't win any argument.
Headline: Kevin Youkilis wins AL player of the week
SOSH collective: Well, wait until he breaks!!
That's the answer to everything. Well, we'll see then (I guess).
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 10 July 2012 - 12:40 PM.
#24
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:37 PM
Also, Ellsbury is a special case because his two injuries where the direct result of collisions with other players, which are pretty different than pulling ligaments off thumbs.
#25
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:40 PM
Point, DeSoto
#26
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:41 PM
#27
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:41 PM
#28
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:47 PM
Check their ages and get back to me.
Also, Ellsbury is a special case because his two injuries where the direct result of collisions with other players, which are pretty different than pulling ligaments off thumbs.
Well, yeah, that's why I said that I threw that in for haha's. But, also, according to that main board thread, Ellsbury doesn't have the skill to stay healthy (tee-hee) <- To be clear, this is a jokey joke.
Thanks for the flippant response though, lol. I mean, the man is 33 years old. He's not ancient. And again, we are talking about this year, not the next four. Why does that point always get lost? What does it also say about Dustin, that he is four years younger, but is already breaking down at a pace similar to older players? Sell him now! I think we can get two 4A players for him. And 1.5M in cash!
I mean, I'm just saying, Kevin and his AIDS can't be the one-liner to everything. For example, I consider the 102 game season a freak injury that could have happened to any player at any age, and not because he was 31 at the time. So let's put that in the Ellsbury "special case" category.
EDIT: For haha's (and I swear I picked a random third-baseman from the past and googled him - first person I thought of), I give you George Brett:
Age - Games played
29 - 144
30 - 123
31 - 104
32 - 155
33 - 124
34 - 115
They should have sold him during his age 33 season. Based on his past of nagging injuries there's no way to predict he could have played another seven seasons. George Brett - "it's what he does" (I mean, I gave a sampling, look at his games played throughout his career)
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 10 July 2012 - 01:03 PM.
#29
Posted 10 July 2012 - 12:55 PM
The point was, 33 years old with 4 recent years of injury history is a pretty poor combination for a guy like Youkilis. Shades of Trot Nixon, hell, similar body types as well. If Youkilis has been breaking down every year since age 29 and missing 30 games each year, what do you think he'll be doing at age 37? At age 37 Nixon was coaching high school football.
Pedroia's age is the very reason not to get as worked up about his injuries, because he's not on the downside of his career yet.
All this fuss because Youkilis has had a good 55 PA with Chicago.
#30
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:08 PM
AIDS? Really. I don't hate him at all and I think he'll enjoy the change of scenery in Chicago as it appears to be a good fit for him.
The point was, 33 years old with 4 recent years of injury history is a pretty poor combination for a guy like Youkilis. Shades of Trot Nixon, hell, similar body types as well. If Youkilis has been breaking down every year since age 29 and missing 30 games each year, what do you think he'll be doing at age 37? At age 37 Nixon was coaching high school football.
Pedroia's age is the very reason not to get as worked up about his injuries, because he's not on the downside of his career yet.
All this fuss because Youkilis has had a good 55 PA with Chicago.
The fuss is that those 55 PA (and more to come) were all-star caliber and could have helped the Red Sox. What's a win worth on the Free Agent market? What did we get in return?
So, there's the fact that he could help the team and we got shit for him (selling low). There's that too.
And really, not to be a jerk, I don't care about his age 37 season. Again, and I'll repeat, "this point always gets lost", all we have to worry about is his age 33 season. Nothing more. It's just not relevant. He's healthy now. He's going to help the White Sox now and for the rest of the year. He should have been helping us.
(And George Brett says hi! As it would be nice that you evaluate the games played each year as opposed to lumping it as him breaking down. For example, the 102 game season I don't think is age-related)
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 10 July 2012 - 01:10 PM.
#31
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:19 PM
Youk:
2005: Broken toe (ST), Fractured tip of ring finger (missed two weeks)
2006: Plantar fasciitis and ab issue. Mostly stayed on field but had just a .707 OPS from July-September.
2007: Pretty healthy, missed 5 games in July with strained quad, missed a week with bruised wrist in September
2008: Back spasms in June, missed 3 games, same issue in Sep, missed 5 games
2009: Placed on DL in May with oblique injury (only out the minimum).
2010: Torn thumb muscle aug 2, missed rest of season
2011: Back injury, hip bursitis, and hernia. Managed 120 games but had just a .660 OPS from the ASB on. Was still dealing with the back injury the next season.
Some of these are pretty minor, and everyone gets banged up, but that's a loooong list, and it's easy to see how the missed time gets longer and longer as his career went on. By comparison Ellsbury has pretty much been an everyday player when he hasn't collided with someone or had a guy fall on his shoulder the wrong way.
#32
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:26 PM
Speaking of points getting lost, how about the strong likelihood that the Red Sox told Youk he'd be a backup, he didn't like the idea, and they did him a favor (and saved potential clubhouse problems) by trading him to the only team with a bad enough 3b situation that they were willing to take a chance on Youk starting (and give Youk a chance to earn a bigger contract in the offseason)? I guess they could have kept a notoriously emotional and unhappy guy around as a backup against his wishes.The fuss is that those 55 PA (and more to come) were all-star caliber and could have helped the Red Sox. What's a win worth on the Free Agent market? What did we get in return?
So, there's the fact that he could help the team and we got shit for him (selling low). There's that too.
And really, not to be a jerk, I don't care about his age 37 season. Again, and I'll repeat, "this point always gets lost", all we have to worry about is his age 33 season. Nothing more. It's just not relevant. He's healthy now. He's going to help the White Sox now and for the rest of the year. He should have been helping us.
I don't think we've seen concrete reports that this is what happened, but it's really the simplest explanation.
#33
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:27 PM
[Speaking of points getting lost, how about the strong likelihood that the Red Sox told Youk he'd be a backup, he didn't like the idea, and they did him a favor (and saved potential clubhouse problems) by trading him to the only team with a bad enough 3b situation that they were willing to take a chance on Youk starting (and give Youk a chance to earn a bigger contract in the offseason)? I guess they could have kept a notoriously emotional and unhappy guy around as a backup against his wishes.
I don't think we've seen concrete reports that this is what happened, but it's really the simplest explanation.
It's possible, but also dumb. I'm all for being nice to players, but Youkilis signed a contract with the team, so ownership could have just told him to wait and see what unfolds, since it was best for the team. Had they not hired an idiot like Valentine, who called him out after a 3-game winning streak for no apparent reason, maybe there wouldn't have been bad will to begin with, and ownership could have approached him differently. Ownership was probably more scared of the public relations hit of having to deal with Youkilis being upset than with the team's performance on the field. Now they can deal with the public relations hit of giving him away and watching him perform at an elite level.
Edited by Ed Hillel, 10 July 2012 - 01:31 PM.
#34
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:50 PM
It's possible, but also dumb. I'm all for being nice to players, but Youkilis signed a contract with the team, so ownership could have just told him to wait and see what unfolds, since it was best for the team. Had they not hired an idiot like Valentine, who called him out after a 3-game winning streak for no apparent reason, maybe there wouldn't have been bad will to begin with, and ownership could have approached him differently. Ownership was probably more scared of the public relations hit of having to deal with Youkilis being upset than with the team's performance on the field. Now they can deal with the public relations hit of giving him away and watching him perform at an elite level.
This makes total sense to me. Unless Youkilis reached Manny-like levels of insubordination that forced the team to dump him, it was a dumb move. If Youkilis is unhappy, tough shit. And I totally agree that if it wasn't for Bobby it most likely would've gone more smoothly. This whole thing stinks of a panic move when there didn't seem to be any reason to panic (as far as we know of course) and as a result they got hosed on this deal. Whether Youkilis had a really good 55 PAs to start his Chicago career isn't really relevant. It just makes it appear worse right now.
#35
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:54 PM
The fuss is that those 55 PA (and more to come) were all-star caliber and could have helped the Red Sox. What's a win worth on the Free Agent market? What did we get in return?
So, there's the fact that he could help the team and we got shit for him (selling low). There's that too.
And really, not to be a jerk, I don't care about his age 37 season. Again, and I'll repeat, "this point always gets lost", all we have to worry about is his age 33 season. Nothing more. It's just not relevant. He's healthy now. He's going to help the White Sox now and for the rest of the year. He should have been helping us.
(And George Brett says hi! As it would be nice that you evaluate the games played each year as opposed to lumping it as him breaking down. For example, the 102 game season I don't think is age-related)
Like he was to the tune of 233/315/377 this year? Are we just going to ignore the fact that he sucked horribly this season in a Red Sox uniform?
He wasn't helping, he was being outplayed by a much younger player, he got hurt again, he wasn't getting along with the manager. He was a good player for many years, but this year he wasn't while in Boston.
And if they had held on to Youkilis and Middlebrooks didn't get hurt....when then? When they traded him Middlebrooks was healthy.
#36
Posted 10 July 2012 - 01:58 PM
#37
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:01 PM
#38
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:29 PM
And if they had held on to Youkilis and Middlebrooks didn't get hurt....when then? When they traded him Middlebrooks was healthy.
Then you keep him on your bench in case WMB struggled/got hurt, or if something happened to Adrian Gonzalez/he needed some time off. He'd also act as insurance if something happened to Ortiz. If nothing happened and WMB was healthy and playing well, then at least that's a net positive for your team, and there isn't much to complain about. Now we're stuck watching Mauro Gomez play Bacci with the snakes in the grass.
Would Youk have been happy if everyone was healthy and playing well and he was stuck on the bench? I doubt it, but who really cares? At least the fans, who the team is actually constructed for, would be.
Edited by Ed Hillel, 10 July 2012 - 02:32 PM.
#39
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:32 PM
Then you keep him on your bench in case WMB struggled/got hurt, or if something happened to Adrian Gonzalez/he needed some time off. If nothing happened and WMB was healthy and playing well, then at least that's a net positive for your team, and there isn't much to complain about. Now we're stuck watching Mauro Gomez play Bacci with the snakes in the grass.
You're ignoring that by all accounts he was EXTREMELY unhappy with not playing every day, and that the Sox were sticking lead-footed AGox into RF in desperate attempts to give him playing time. It certainly appeared to me to be an untenable situation for everyone involved.
Youks didn't want to be on the bench as his free agent year wound down; who could blame him? And there's certainly been plenty of smoke that the situation made for a bad clubhouse situation.
#40
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:36 PM
You're ignoring that by all accounts he was EXTREMELY unhappy with not playing every day, and that the Sox were sticking lead-footed AGox into RF in desperate attempts to give him playing time. It certainly appeared to me to be an untenable situation for everyone involved.
Youks didn't want to be on the bench as his free agent year wound down; who could blame him? And there's certainly been plenty of smoke that the situation made for a bad clubhouse situation.
I was putting in the edited part of my post as you were typing this up. The Red Sox are used to dealing with media firestorms. I don't care about him being a distraction, he signed a contract, and should be forced to sit if it was best for the team at the time. Professional organizations, especially in baseball, should be able to handle situations like this.
#41
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:42 PM
Professional organizations, especially in baseball, should be able to handle situations like this.
Somehow, I just don't think it's quite that simple. Unhappy athletes create tenuous situations all the time, shit, just look at Dwight Howard over the past year. It's not as if you're benching someone like JD Drew either, Youk is an outspoken dude who wears his emotions on his sleeve. Not only could it create an issue with the team, the media would be chomping at the bit to create a total shitstorm, and someone (be it Youk, Bobby, or someone in the FO) would probably eventually give them the ammo they need to do it.
#42
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:51 PM
To be fair the only reason we are seeing Gomez is because both WMB and Pedroia got hurt. At the time of the trade the plan for a WMB injury was Nick Punto.Then you keep him on your bench in case WMB struggled/got hurt, or if something happened to Adrian Gonzalez/he needed some time off. He'd also act as insurance if something happened to Ortiz. If nothing happened and WMB was healthy and playing well, then at least that's a net positive for your team, and there isn't much to complain about. Now we're stuck watching Mauro Gomez play Bacci with the snakes in the grass.
Would Youk have been happy if everyone was healthy and playing well and he was stuck on the bench? I doubt it, but who really cares? At least the fans, who the team is actually constructed for, would be.
Punto is better served as a utility player than Youk, and probably a better defender at 3B at this point, and they were nearing the end of a month where Punto's OPS was .363 higher than Youk's.
Even with Youk's great week in Chicago, here are their numbers since June 1.
Youk: .273/.373/.444/.817
Punto: .300/.379/.440/.819
#43
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:51 PM
Either you trust management's decision that they needed to move Youk, or you think management screwed up and could have / MY PARENTS ARE ILLITERATE INNER-CITY HARPS WHO RAISED ME TO BE PROACTIVELY STUPID (I used that just for the word filter...love it) managed the situation differently. I think the argument has to focus there, though, because the performance/impact debates are probably unresolvable.
#44
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:56 PM
#45
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:58 PM
should o f I believeI'm more curious about what the filtered word is at this point.
#46
Posted 10 July 2012 - 02:59 PM
#47
Posted 10 July 2012 - 03:42 PM
That's what's not so clear to me. He had sat out several games with a hamstring pull, hadn't he? Aren't they frequently recurring?And if they had held on to Youkilis and Middlebrooks didn't get hurt....when then? When they traded him Middlebrooks was healthy.
#48
Posted 11 July 2012 - 12:18 AM
Like he was to the tune of 233/315/377 this year? Are we just going to ignore the fact that he sucked horribly this season in a Red Sox uniform?
He wasn't helping, he was being outplayed by a much younger player, he got hurt again, he wasn't getting along with the manager. He was a good player for many years, but this year he wasn't while in Boston.
And if they had held on to Youkilis and Middlebrooks didn't get hurt....when then? When they traded him Middlebrooks was healthy.
Yes, the 347/418/571 reigning AL player of the week would have helped us win ballgames.
Let me be clear, here was my stance since day 1:
1. Youkilis should have started - him being unhappy about not starting negated.
2. Will Middlebrooks should have been on the bench or in AAA - 3b depth if Youks gets injured.
3. His injury concerns are overblown, especially in light of the fact that we only need to get through this year. The Sox were not extending him past this year. Regardless, you still had the depth with Middlebrooks.
4. Being that he was healthy, I expected to see the 2011 (April-July) version. That was the expectation going forward. The projection if you will, because thats more important. What they will do, not what was done.
Its really that simple.
All I ever hear about is how hes a fluke, is cooked, is going to turn to dust in seconds ... and all Ive seen is a healthier looking Youks that has been making great plays at 3rd, knocking the snot out of the ball, and has been absolutely a part of the reason the White Sox were winning recently. With all of our one run losses, esp. against the A's and the M's, he would have helped. Point Youks.
Edited by HillysLastWalk, 11 July 2012 - 12:37 AM.
#49
Posted 11 July 2012 - 10:04 AM
#50
Posted 11 July 2012 - 12:43 PM
To be fair the only reason we are seeing Gomez is because both WMB and Pedroia got hurt.
Pedroia has been hurt basically all season, him needing to miss a bunch of time soon after Youkilis got dumped should have come as a surprise to exactly no one. Likewise, WMB had already missed a bunch of games due to hamstring tightness, and so him reaggravating that injury should also have come as a surprise to exactly no one.
As is often the case, the concern about "having too many people to play [fill in the position]" would have quickly been rendered moot.
At the time of the trade the plan for a WMB injury was Nick Punto.
Punto is better served as a utility player than Youk, and probably a better defender at 3B at this point, and they were nearing the end of a month where Punto's OPS was .363 higher than Youk's.
Even with Youk's great week in Chicago, here are their numbers since June 1.
Youk: .273/.373/.444/.817
Punto: .300/.379/.440/.819
As I posted on the main board about a month ago, Punto against righthanders would be a nice upgrade over Aviles right about now.
Edited by Plympton91, 11 July 2012 - 12:44 PM.
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