and, I didn't advocate tanking "now". I actually advocated playing it out till the trade deadline,...
Lastly, I stated the eventual rebuild taking 4-5 years longer in the context of a larger discussion about people ignoring risks of trying to play it out, i.e., it is not my belief that is necessarily what must happen. I just believe that if people are going to point out the risks of blowing it up, it's only fair to point out the risk of keeping it together could be the difference between competing for a championship again in 2015 instead of 2020. In the end either approach has risks and will only be succesful with some combination of smarts and luck.
In principle, I'm pretty indifferent between getting good young talent and getting picks. In practice, with good young talent the talent is already fully valued so you will have to trade closer to full value. However, Ainge has a proven track record of extracting & developing above average talent for his drafting position, hence my preference for picks - in order to play to our strengths.
Glad to see you are willing to give this cast a chance.
Still, I have to question your add 4-5 years estimate. Let's say you get rid of PP or KG, you probably get a salary dump and a mid-teens draft (or ayoung player equivalent). And a you get a 10-15 2013 pick from tanking this year. But you get a 20 or so pick for this year anyways. In 2014 you get a 10 or so pick, instead of the 20 or so pick. In 2015, probably the same picks either way (KG and PP being gone).
So you add two 15-20 picks, and convert two 20 picks to a 10 picks. That's a nice benefit, but far from guaranteeing a 4-5 year faster rebirth.
And you just can't ignore the possible benefits of PP or KG "mentoring" of middling players you might get;
nor the fact that RR may disappear if he has to play many years on a rebuild.
nor the chance you might be able to attract a stud free agent in 2 years to finish off a nice team, using KG/PP expired money
and you might get to enjoy two shots at getting to the ECF
.. and that's why I don't feel too romantic erring on the side of "let's see what these guys can do"
Edited by dhellers, 29 January 2013 - 09:21 PM.