126 replies to this topic

[erfus]

The one exception is Salty. As I posted May 10: he is always going to be too erratic defensively to be the major part of a catching platoon. Since he is a stronger batter from the left side, that makes him a misfit. Given the state of MLB catching out there, however, there could be some clubs still intrigued enough to make a deal.

I agree with this sentiment though the price should be high. One thing that's crept into this lineup due to injury and poor seasons by unusual suspects is the number of low OBP types, including Salty (basically everyone but Nava and Ortiz, Ross maybe). The Sox are 5th in the AL in team OBP, which is pretty low by their usual standards (1st in 2011). Salty hits for a ton of power which is very useful especially from the catcher position, but adding Lavarnway's plate discipline in the lineup is intriguing. I haven't seen any updated defensive scouting reports on Lavarnway, so I'm assuming he'll be similarly mediocre as Salty but he'd certainly give the lineup 'a different look' to steal a phrase...

I wouldn't mind seeing a larger overhaul but realistically I think that has to happen in the offseason. If you want to see them change the core a bit, and I have succumbed to my emotions on that front, I think guys like Beckett, Buchholz, Ellsbury, Bailey et al need to come back in the 2nd half and re-establish their roles and trade value. Even if they're not trade bait, their performance in the 2nd half would hopefully give Cherington some leverage to trade others.

[tonyarmasjr]

Shoppach's solid season (.885 OPS in 93 ABs) and Lavarnway's presence make cashing in Shoppach for a prospect as the most obvious trade for Cherington to make.

Their bullpen's been awful, too. So, the combination of Shoppach and a reliever could actually bring back something with a little bit of value.

[bosox79]

sorta off topic but With offensive numbers going down across MLB as a whole , is it possible the value of slugging has rised and obp fallen?thus making guys like Salty more valuable? I wouldnt be against trading him but id want talent back.

Also, Id see the sox as sellers, but more sellers out of necessity (mr, of surplus). ideally youd find a team who could use Shoppach, Sweeney and a bullpen arm or two and package them for a decent prospect(s).

Ortiz should also have value to teams in the off season as he'd still net a 1st rounder or you have him in the middle of your lineup for another year, right?

Anyway, after the last few years, Id hope the sox go back to the 4 year deals they were criticized for because these monster deals arent working out. Whod have thought the Manny deal would have been one of the best 7-8 year contracts? Rely more on the farm please, trust your scouts/talent. Recent results would say they deserve it. And even if they didnt, the FA market for star players has shown its not.

Edited by bosox79, 08 July 2012 - 12:18 PM.

[seantoo]

Sellers, of course, but not for the traditional reason. As has been pointed out, if they're not sellers, they'll be losing quality players via DFA.

Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Morales, Doubront, Matsuzaka, Cook, Germano.
Bailey, Aceves, Padilla, Atchison, Albers; Miller, Hill.

That's three pitchers more than you can fit on an MLB roster, and if you want to make room for just the best of Melancon, Mortensen, and Bard, you need to move four guys, which you could do because you'd still have anywhere from two to four adequate MLB arms in AAA (including Tazawa and maybe Prior, with Bard also iffy). The choices would appear to be Albers, Germano, and either Cook or Matsuzaka, and if you're moving four, Hill.

The position players reveal a need to move Podsednik and either Sweeney or Lillibridge.

Cherington has three tough choices:

Matsuzaka or Cook: who do you keep and who do you deal? That's a talent decision.

Sweeney or Lillibridge for 25th guy? That's a roster utility decision.

Melancon / Bard or Hill? Another roster utility decision. Who's more useful, a 5th RHR who is somewhat better, or a second / third LHR? Opting for the former also thins the pitching depth a bit.

Why don't you include Punto and Nava as potential trade bait.? I would think that Lillibridge and Punto have some redundancy but that Lillibridge can also back-up the OF. That may allow the team to keep an extra pitcher on the 24 man roster which would make Punto more likely to be the player moved. Podesednik to me is an ideal 5th OF'er however the health of Ellsbury & Crawford might make it necessary to keep one of Nava/Kalish on the 24 man roster. Kalish has options and Nava I believe does not.

[judyb]

Nava still has one option left according to soxprospects.com.

[bosox79]

Who would trade for Nick Punto? All youd probably get is cap relief and that'd be minimal. Maybe even less if you have to send money with him.

[Rasputin]

Who would trade for Nick Punto? All youd probably get is cap relief and that'd be minimal. Maybe even less if you have to send money with him.

And that's good enough. Getting out from under the contract obligation for next year would be fine with me.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

And that's good enough. Getting out from under the contract obligation for next year would be fine with me.

Exactly. The contract obligation means he's going to be on the 25-man roster if he's still with the Sox and not injured.

Ergo, he should not be with the Sox, or he should be injured. I'm sure I've got a lead pipe around here somewhere, if folks prefer option 2.

[roundegotrip]

We have a good shot at the second wild card, but so do six other teams in the AL. In the NL, it looks like a five team death match for the two wild card spots right now. With that many teams in realistic contention for a playoff spot at the ASB, there could be more teams than usual willing to part ways with prospects, and we have some good "sell high" pieces to move in the outfield and the bullpen...

I'd like to see Crawford get his surgery if he needs it. Take a hard look at Adrian's health. Don't rush anyone back.

I'm not saying blow it up, but let's do some smart selling

[seantoo]

Who would trade for Nick Punto? All youd probably get is cap relief and that'd be minimal. Maybe even less if you have to send money with him.

As Rasputin indicated, that would be fine for the reasons he stated. Also why would anyone assume that when a player is mentioned as trade bait that they would necc. by traded by themselves?

[4-6-3]

We have a good shot at the second wild card, but so do six other teams in the AL. In the NL, it looks like a five team death match for the two wild card spots right now. With that many teams in realistic contention for a playoff spot at the ASB, there could be more teams than usual willing to part ways with prospects, and we have some good "sell high" pieces to move in the outfield and the bullpen...

I'd like to see Crawford get his surgery if he needs it. Take a hard look at Adrian's health. Don't rush anyone back.

I'm not saying blow it up, but let's do some smart selling

I'm on board with this. Smart selling in a market where more teams may be willing to give up prospects for a shot at the postseason. I don't see the starting pitching turning it around in the next couple of weeks to be convincing enough that this team can go further than the second wild card.

[Eric Van]

Why don't you include Punto and Nava as potential trade bait.? I would think that Lillibridge and Punto have some redundancy but that Lillibridge can also back-up the OF. That may allow the team to keep an extra pitcher on the 24 man roster which would make Punto more likely to be the player moved.

Nava's not potential trade bait as long as he looks to get some regular PT in RF once everyone is healthy, which he does.

Punto and Lillibridge have very little redundancy. The former is a guy who can't hit but can play 2B, SS, and 3B really well. The latter is a CF who probably can't hit and can just barely play 2B, SS, and 3B well enough to give him some extra utility. Playing him as a regular for a week at any of those positions would be like playing .... Mauro Gomez at 3B. I'm really leaning towards keeping Sweeney over him.

Now, Ciriaco absolutely makes Punto expendable, and now that he's on the 40-man roster and can't be sent down without passing through waivers, you really do want to explore that.

The entire Cherington off-season consisted of spending money and talent to get guys who turned out to be not any better and/or more helpful than guys they got for free (Bailey & Melancon versus Padilla, Cook, etc.; Punto vs. Ciriaco.)

Podesednik to me is an ideal 5th OF'er however the health of Ellsbury & Crawford might make it necessary to keep one of Nava/Kalish on the 24 man roster. Kalish has options and Nava I believe does not.

I can't imagine wanting to have Podsednik rather than Nava. And right now it looks like they can take Pods off the 40-man and keep him at Pawtucket, so there's no loss in depth.

[seantoo]

Nava's not potential trade bait as long as he looks to get some regular PT in RF once everyone is healthy, which he does.

Why not trade a 29 YO whose likely playing above his true talent level right now? Also when/big IF Crawford/Ellsbury/Ross is back then at most Nava gets to platoon in right and he'd be exposed in RF. I think Nava is better served in a pacakge deal, Sweeney to.
Also how well would Nava play if he's playing sporadically playing. That along with baserunning and fielding is why I think Podsednik is better suited as a 5th outfielder than anyone else they have. He's perfect for the role.



WhPunto and Lillibridge have very little redundancy. The former is a guy who can't hitthen but can play 2B, SS, and 3B really well. The latter is a CF who probably can't hit and can just barely play 2B, SS, and 3B well enough to give him some extra utility. Playing him as a regular for a week at any of those positions would be like playing .... Mauro Gomez at 3B. I'm really leaning towards keeping Sweeney over him.

Now, Ciriaco absolutely makes Punto expendable, and now that he's on the 40-man roster and can't be sent down without passing through waivers, you really do want to explore that.

The entire Cherington off-season consisted of spending money and talent to get guys who turned out to be not any better and/or more helpful than guys they got for free (Bailey & Melancon versus Padilla, Cook, etc.; Punto vs. Ciriaco.)



I can't imagine wanting to have Podsednik rather than Nava. And right now it looks like they can take Pods off the 40-man and keep him at Pawtucket, so there's no loss in depth.

Edited by seantoo, 09 July 2012 - 10:00 PM.

[Drek717]

I'd personally like to see them do the following:

1. 2 out of Ross/Nava/Sweeney traded for the best you can bring back. Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish, and the other remaining guy comprise the top 4 OFs.

2. move at least two, if not all three, of Padilla, Albers, Atchison. Older guys who have no long term role here that are doing ok now but are blocking guys who might be just as good (or better) and have more of a future here.

3. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Morales. That should be the starting five you're shooting for. Move both Daisuke and Cook. When Bailey is back convert Aceves back to the spot starter/long relief role. Kick the tires on trading both Beckett and Lester, if either nets you a windfall of elite prospects from a go for it now team take it. The minute Lackey is medically cleared to play release him outright.

4. Move one or both of Aviles and Punto. Let Ciriaco take over at SS. He and Iglesias compete going forward for the SS and backup IF jobs.

5. Move Shoppach for the best possible value before the deadline, clearing a spot for Lavarnway.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

So basically Drek, you want Ben to conduct a rummage sale out of the Fenway garage?

Shoppach, Aviles, Punto, Matsuzaka, Cook, Padilla, Albers, Atchison, Nava, and Sweeney? I'll even throw in Lillibridge, too, although you didn't mention him. That's 40% of the active roster, but not one is an impact player.

It just clears out a lot of junk. And every other aspiring playoff team already has a pretty full basement of their own.

[yecul]

Freeing up roster spots, salary and/or obtaining prospects seems like a worthwhile goal to me. Can you possibly trade them all? No, but a few small sales are more likely and probably a better net than a big one.

[Cellar-Door]

And that's good enough. Getting out from under the contract obligation for next year would be fine with me.

The Punto hate has gone too far, we have seen over the last month plus that he has real value to the team. He has played good defense at 3 positions and has an OPS of .819 since June 1. If anything we should move Aviles and slot Punto in as the starting SS.

[kieckeredinthehead]

The Punto hate has gone too far, we have seen over the last month plus that he has real value to the team. He has played good defense at 3 positions and has an OPS of .819 since June 1. If anything we should move Aviles and slot Punto in as the starting SS.

Punto and Aviles should be a decent platoon going forward - Aviles has an 886 OPS vs. lefties this year, 616 vs. righties. For his career, Punto has been pretty evenly split, but is hitting better than Aviles vs. righties this year and especially recently.

[dbn]

(1) Why sell when the Red Sox are in such good position to take the 2nd wild card? As I posted in another thread, they are the most likely team, according to coolstandings.

(2) Several posters have indicated why they don't think they will: tough 2nd half schedule, continued inconsistency/growing underperformance of their SP, outlook for IR players helping in the 2nd half bleaker than previously thought, etc. However, if -- even despite (1) -- you think the Red Sox are not contenders this year, they are almost certainly hoping to be contenders next year and thus should not trade away anyone who can help them in 2013. That means the only reasons (I can think of) to trade someone are: (a) he is a free agent in 2013, and/or (b) there is a better, in-house option available to take his place in 2013.

Trading a talent-glut position for a need position, or dumping someone for special circumstances such as being a clubhouse cancer, are always potentially good reasons, as opposed to "give up on the season and sell" reasons.

Here are the Red Sox's 2013 UFAs: Ortiz, Ross, Matsuzaka, Shoppach, and Cook.

They could save some $$ by dumping Ortiz, Ross, and/or Matsuzaka, I guess. Personally, I'd like to see Ortiz and maybe Ross and Shoppach extended, although Ortiz and Shop depending on what they make of Lavarnway.

That said, deciding a player is expendable is only half the equation. What organizational needs could be filled by trading any of those players (not a rhetorical question)? Although it could always stand improvement, the farm is in very good shape. If they decide to punt this year, the only position that I think a trade could realistically improve them for 2013 is SS.

(3) OF COURSE they should trade (fill in the blank) if they can get someone to drasticly overpay, but that is almost always true.

[Rasputin]

The Punto hate has gone too far, we have seen over the last month plus that he has real value to the team. He has played good defense at 3 positions and has an OPS of .819 since June 1. If anything we should move Aviles and slot Punto in as the starting SS.

Lunacy.

He's been a terrible disappointment defensively and I can only hope that is a small sample size illusion.

According to bbref the good half of his platoon split is a .647 OPS.

I would much rather have a guy who can pinch run and steal a base in a handful of close games between now and September than get 30 points of OPS from the nine hitter.

Plus, you know, the contract obligation for next season.

[Plympton91]

Punto and Aviles should be a decent platoon going forward - Aviles has an 886 OPS vs. lefties this year, 616 vs. righties. For his career, Punto has been pretty evenly split, but is hitting better than Aviles vs. righties this year and especially recently.

Absolutely agreed. Since June 1 Punto has outhit Aviles by a considerable margin against righthanders. Valentine should be going with the hot hand. Part of Aviles' slump is likely that he's playing more than he has in years, and needs more regular time off to stay fresh and play like he did in April.

[opes]

I'm with dbn. Chock it up as a loss and sell everything not essential to next season. Regardless if they get the 2nd WC, the chances of them making it out of the first round are low. You have to remember, if this was last year, they wouldnt have a 2nd WC to win.
Consider all offers at this point.

[seantoo]

I'm with dbn. Chock it up as a loss and sell everything not essential to next season. Regardless if they get the 2nd WC, the chances of them making it out of the first round are low. You have to remember, if this was last year, they wouldnt have a 2nd WC to win.
Consider all offers at this point.

Conversely if this years rules were in place last year, then fried chicken & beer never happened.

[geoduck no quahog]

I'm with dbn. Chock it up as a loss and sell everything not essential to next season. Regardless if they get the 2nd WC, the chances of them making it out of the first round are low. You have to remember, if this was last year, they wouldnt have a 2nd WC to win.
Consider all offers at this point.

But the Red Sox have a huge advantage in the WC. They have no Number One pitcher. They have four Number 4's and a 5. This means there's no sacrificing their No.1 to the Gods of Late Season Playoffs. Huge.

(...we now return to our regularly scheduled programming...)

[Hokie Sox]

It wouldn't be a "Trade Deadline Prediction" thread without the obligatory "perhaps this is the time we go and get Alex Gordon. In all seriousness though, his value may never be lower than at this point, and we have to consider the possibility of fielding a competitive team without a healthy, productive, breathing/living Carl Crawford this year.

[judyb]

It wouldn't be a "Trade Deadline Prediction" thread without the obligatory "perhaps this is the time we go and get Alex Gordon. In all seriousness though, his value may never be lower than at this point, and we have to consider the possibility of fielding a competitive team without a healthy, productive, breathing/living Carl Crawford this year.

I don't think the Red Sox are looking to add about $10M a year to their leftfielder budget for 5 more years.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

The Punto argument isn't or shouldn't be a Aviles vs. Punto argument. Aviles has been all you could ask for (except .OBP).... The real argument should be Punto vs. Ciriaco for the utility infielder position. If the answer is to go with the hot hand, then Ciriaco definitely has started off going in the right direction.

The total waste of space on the roster is Little-Bidge he holds nothing over any of the qualified participants. He should be DFA'd (if he doesn't have any options)

[Drek717]

So basically Drek, you want Ben to conduct a rummage sale out of the Fenway garage?

Effectively, yes. Bargains on middling MLB vets for playoff contending teams.

Shoppach, Aviles, Punto, Matsuzaka, Cook, Padilla, Albers, Atchison, Nava, and Sweeney? I'll even throw in Lillibridge, too, although you didn't mention him. That's 40% of the active roster, but not one is an impact player.

Sure. Why trade an impact player when the team is still borderline in the playoff race? Better yet, what impact player can we even trade? Pedroia and Ortiz are clearly not even up for discussion. No one wants Gonzalez' contract, we can assume that. Crawford, Buchholz, and Ellsbury are damaged good right now. No one wants Lackey's deal and he's damaged goods. Other than that you've got younger guys/cost controlled guys who are worth more to this team in 2013 and beyond (Aceves, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Kalish, etc.). That leaves Becket and Lester, which as I said I'd listen to offers on but wouldn't take anything beyond a major haul of quality prospects. I don't see that being offered.

It just clears out a lot of junk. And every other aspiring playoff team already has a pretty full basement of their own.

Really? No aspiring playoff team has questions about a right handed OF bat (Ross)? Or a quality 4th OF (Sweeney/Nava)? Or a solid if unspectacular 4th/5th starter type (Matsuzaka/Cook)? And when was the last off-season that aspiring playoff teams weren't willing to spend a little on some relief help (Albers, Atchison, Padilla)?

Its all a matter of opportunity costs for playoff teams. The choice between betting on one of their own AAA guys and trading for a more proven vet hinges on the cost of that vet. What I'm saying is that the Red Sox should be willing to take on the riskier side of these propositions (settle for middling return even though they're still in the playoff hunt) to facilitate these deals happening. I say that for two reasons:
1. The guys being blocked by the veterans mentioned do not look to be significant downgrades for this year.
2. The guys being blocked all have greater long term potential to help the Sox win meaningful games.

Its the same rationale that was applied when moving Youkilis for middling return. The 2012 difference in production between him and Middlebrooks didn't seem to be significant and the 2013 and beyond guy was clearly Middlebrooks. So why keep a stopgap around who isn't a clearly better option?

Replacing:
Aviles/Punto with Ciriaco and possibly Iglesias
Atchison/Albers/Padilla with Tazawa/Mortensen/Inman/Wilson
2 of Ross/Sweeney/Nava with Kalish/Linares
Matsuzaka/Cook with a regularly starting Morales

All would likely give similar production as standing pat with the older, short term vet in 2012 but paints a much clearer picture for 2013. The return for the "rummage sale" is in some ways secondary, but you hold it so that you aren't DFAing guys with real MLB value and get something in return.

Another Zach Stewart type for example, ok AAA pitcher who still has options but very little "prospect" status left, would be a useful return from one of these trades for the 2013 season. Parlaying some of these vets into long shot low minors lottery tickets would be a fine return. I'm not expecting many, if any, even B level prospects. Maybe if you package Ross and a reliever you see a single quality prospect come back. Other than that I'd rather see the FO clear some 25 man roster space for the mid-20's guys we have knocking on the door so we aren't just finding out what we have with Ciriaco, Linares, etc. after the 2013 FA season has passed us by and we find ourselves scrounging waiver wires in 2013 for fungible replacements.

[Hokie Sox]

I don't think the Red Sox are looking to add about $10M a year to their leftfielder budget for 5 more years.

If you consider we have Ortiz coming off the books at 15 mil (assuming he's unsigned which seems like a real possibility at this point), it's actually foreseeable. It's also a nice insurance option at 3B in case Middlebrooks doesn't pan out. Worst case scenario we have a 28 year old guy entering his "prime" who can play 3B, DH, and OF for a cost-controlled five years... there are worse ways to manage money.

Edited by Hokie Sox, 11 July 2012 - 01:21 PM.

[Rasputin]

The Punto argument isn't or shouldn't be a Aviles vs. Punto argument. Aviles has been all you could ask for (except .OBP).... The real argument should be Punto vs. Ciriaco for the utility infielder position. If the answer is to go with the hot hand, then Ciriaco definitely has started off going in the right direction.

The answer isn't to go with the hot hand. The answer is to go with the one whose skills are most likely to help you win games. Bench players shouldn't be judged by the overall talent level but by the skills lacking in the guys they are backing up and how likely it is to help you win games.

Punto is a better fielder than Aviles. That could, at least theoretically help you win a game where you're slightly ahead but I think Ciriaco's ability to steal a base has that trumped.

[Adrian's Dome]

I'm with dbn. Chock it up as a loss and sell everything not essential to next season. Regardless if they get the 2nd WC, the chances of them making it out of the first round are low. You have to remember, if this was last year, they wouldnt have a 2nd WC to win.
Consider all offers at this point.

You know, I was in St. Louis last year right after the Braves collapsed and the Cards squeaked in to face the Phillies. They weren't exactly stoked about their chances down there, but looky what ended up going down.

Stranger shit has happened.

When you're only 2.5 games out of a potential playoff spot, you don't sell.

[Rasputin]

If you consider we have Ortiz coming off the books at 15 mil (assuming he's unsigned which seems like a real possibility at this point), it's actually foreseeable. It's also a nice insurance option at 3B in case Middlebrooks doesn't pan out. Worst case scenario we have a 28 year old guy entering his "prime" who can play 3B, DH, and OF for a cost-controlled five years... there are worse ways to manage money.

No it's not forseeable it's completely nonsensical.

The fact that Youks is off the books and Dice K will be is what's making it possible to keep Ortiz and get under the luxury tax cap.

[Laschelle Tarver]

I'd personally like to see them do the following:

1. 2 out of Ross/Nava/Sweeney traded for the best you can bring back. Crawford, Ellsbury, Kalish, and the other remaining guy comprise the top 4 OFs.

2. move at least two, if not all three, of Padilla, Albers, Atchison. Older guys who have no long term role here that are doing ok now but are blocking guys who might be just as good (or better) and have more of a future here.

3. Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Morales. That should be the starting five you're shooting for. Move both Daisuke and Cook. When Bailey is back convert Aceves back to the spot starter/long relief role. Kick the tires on trading both Beckett and Lester, if either nets you a windfall of elite prospects from a go for it now team take it. The minute Lackey is medically cleared to play release him outright.

4. Move one or both of Aviles and Punto. Let Ciriaco take over at SS. He and Iglesias compete going forward for the SS and backup IF jobs.

5. Move Shoppach for the best possible value before the deadline, clearing a spot for Lavarnway.

I actually agree with the methodology behind this. Obviously all of it won't happen, but smaller individual deals like you list are what I think will happen. Dice K is probably the least realistic one to move, but every other guy you list could be a supplemental piece to a club trying to add bullpen depth, outfield depth, catching depth, etc.

[SoxScout]

Gammons is talking about trading Lester on 98.5... says he has way more value on the trade market than Greinke or Hamels, especially to Texas. Says he thinks Lester is "so unhappy here."

Now talking about trading Lester to KC for 3 prospects.

Edited by SoxScout, 11 July 2012 - 02:17 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

How did this organization get to a point where established stars were happy and wanting to leave Boston? I guess that has largely been the norm, but what in the world happened in the last few years? Papelbon seems thrilled to have left. Youkilis looks reinvigorated. Ortiz doesn't sound like he wants to stay. Theo and Tito hardly fought to stick around. Now Lester is unhappy? Don't want to put too much stock in body language, but Pedroia doesn't look like a happy camper. What's happening here, what's the future of this organization and how did everything turn to shit so fast? Did the culture of moving core guys around so much lead to a total lack of loyalty from everyone here, or did the relative lack of success cause things to feel shittier than they are?

Apologize if this is too stream of conscious or game thready...but jesus christ.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 11 July 2012 - 02:23 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

The answer isn't to go with the hot hand. The answer is to go with the one whose skills are most likely to help you win games. Bench players shouldn't be judged by the overall talent level but by the skills lacking in the guys they are backing up and how likely it is to help you win games.

Punto is a better fielder than Aviles. That could, at least theoretically help you win a game where you're slightly ahead but I think Ciriaco's ability to steal a base has that trumped.

Punto can play 3 positions well and get on base and has proven that over a long MLB career, that trumps Ciriaco's speed. I do think if there is an offer out there for Aviles you take it and go with Punto/Ciricao. 31 year old Mike Aviles with his subpar defense and career .311 OBP isn't the future at SS for the Red Sox anyway.

[Corsi]

How did this organization get to a point where established stars were happy and wanting to leave Boston? I guess that has largely been the norm, but what in the world happened in the last few years? Papelbon seems thrilled to have left. Youkilis looks reinvigorated. Ortiz doesn't sound like he wants to stay. Theo and Tito hardly fought to stick around. Now Lester is unhappy? Don't want to put too much stock in body language, but Pedroia doesn't look like a happy camper. What's happening here, what's the future of this organization and how did everything turn to shit so fast? Did the culture of moving core guys around so much lead to a total lack of loyalty from everyone here, or did the relative lack of success cause things to feel shittier than they are?

Apologize if this is too stream of conscious or game thready...but jesus christ.

From Olney on WEEI earlier today:

“That’s really what a lot of this stuff comes down to, without having specifics of who’s having disagreements with who,” Olney said. “Ultimately the reason why all this is happening, and the same reason why years ago there was the issue between Larry [Lucchino] and Theo [Epstein] was because there wasn’t really a distinct chain of command that was determined by the ownership. They need to [fix] that and [the problem's] not going to get solved until that happens.

“All these issues of who’s speaking to who and who’s not talking to who and who’s not getting along with who, that’s not going to be settled until they deal with that. Again, as we’ve said in recent weeks, they can still win in spite of that. They’ve got a tremendous amount of terrific players.”

http://fullcount.wee..._medium=twitter

[LeoCarrillo]

Unlike Greinke or Hamels, Lester has another year ($11M for '13) and a team option for 2014 ($13M). Damn right he's got more value. See what the haul is, for sure. Can always spend the Lester/Dice-K savings on a pitcher this winter ... like Greinke or Hamels, for example.

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

I think everyone (outside of Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury) is going to be made available.

The most valuable chip the Sox have is Ross: Cheap, lefty masher who has been part of a pennant race and a World Series championship. Outside of Carlos Quentin (and it's debatable who one would rather have), he's probably the best OF bat that's going to be acquirable.

Any and all bullpen arms should be shipped off for the best offer. Actually, any and all starters should be traded for a good haul of prospects as well.

I hope the Sox really work to move Salty. This guy is just not that good of a baseball player (far too streaky for my liking). From 2009 on, he has a slash line of .232/ .289/ .437. He's below average defensively. He's game-calling for the worst starting pitching staff in baseball, well 27th by ERA, 24th by BAA (probably an unfair charge; I don't blame him at all for the state of the pitching rotation). He's so bad from the right side of the plate. His approach is the same, his plate discipline is lacking. He hasn't improved at all (save for the ball going further the times he makes contact as his home run rate has spiked; his contact rate or Balls In Play % hasn't jumped at all, staying at 57%, 2 points below his career average and 12 points below the MLB average). He's a flawed player. All that doesn't change the fact that he's having the best power year of his career. Sell on him now. Angels, Mets, and Nationals all seem like they could be in the market for a catcher. Get some prospects back and let Lavarnway get some reps up at the big league level.

EDIT: Angels aren't a fit with catching Nazi Scioscia managing. If they couldn't take Napoli's defensive shortcomings, they won't take Salty's, unless of course, DiPoto is more in charge than Reagins was.

Edited by greek_gawd_of_walks, 11 July 2012 - 03:10 PM.

[Yaz4Ever]

Gammons is talking about trading Lester on 98.5... says he has way more value on the trade market than Greinke or Hamels, especially to Texas. Says he thinks Lester is "so unhappy here."

Now talking about trading Lester to KC for 3 prospects.

If one of them is a local boy by the name of Will Myers, I'd be all over it. Kid can rake, play C, 3B, and OF. Good head on his shoulders and wanted to be drafted by the Sox in the first place.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The Royals are 37-47, third worst team in the AL. Why the hell would they be trading prospects for Lester?

[judyb]

Lester still only counts for $6M against the luxury tax next season, and I think $13M for his club option in 2014? They almost can't trade him, unless it's for more than he'd be worth even if he was pitching like an ace.

[Toe Nash]

If one of them is a local boy by the name of Will Myers, I'd be all over it. Kid can rake, play C, 3B, and OF. Good head on his shoulders and wanted to be drafted by the Sox in the first place.

He was just ranked the #2 prospect in baseball by Sickels and #3 by Baseball America in their midseason updates. I don't think he's going anywhere.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Morales and Doubront combine to make significantly less than even that $6MM AAV figure, though.

Lester being a "budget value" is a significant part of what makes him a desirable commodity in trade. Whether he should be traded this season, or whether Ben should be in charge of picking the right return package for him, though, are two entirely separate questions.

[SoxScout]

The Royals are 37-47, third worst team in the AL. Why the hell would they be trading prospects for Lester?

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- As recently as last week, the Royals were still hoping to be buyers this month. They definitely plan to be buyers next winter. People familiar with their plans say that the Royals are determined to find a significant starting pitcher for 2013 on the free-agent market. "Not a fifth starter, but a real starting pitcher," one Royals person said this week.

http://www.cbssports...via-free-agency

Any thought of Wil Myers is crazy, though.

Edited by SoxScout, 11 July 2012 - 03:55 PM.

[Rasputin]

Punto can play 3 positions well and get on base and has proven that over a long MLB career, that trumps Ciriaco's speed. I do think if there is an offer out there for Aviles you take it and go with Punto/Ciricao. 31 year old Mike Aviles with his subpar defense and career .311 OBP isn't the future at SS for the Red Sox anyway.

In what world has Nick Punto proven he can get on base? He's got a career on base percentage of .325.

It's also largely irrelevant. Aviles is clearly the better offensive package and his defense, while not spectacular, is good enough.

[Rasputin]

The Royals are 37-47, third worst team in the AL. Why the hell would they be trading prospects for Lester?

They play in the AL Central and Lester would be relatively cost controlled and under team control until 2014.

I'm not sure I buy it but they are in a crappy division and might think they have a legit shot over the next couple years.

[Yaz4Ever]

He was just ranked the #2 prospect in baseball by Sickels and #3 by Baseball America in their midseason updates. I don't think he's going anywhere.

http://www.cbssports...via-free-agency

Any thought of Wil Myers is crazy, though.

Never said it was realistic, just that I'd jump at that chance if it came up. One can dream, especially when the reality of this season isn't nearly as appealing.

[Rasputin]

Never said it was realistic, just that I'd jump at that chance if it came up. One can dream, especially when the reality of this season isn't nearly as appealing.

On the other hand, if you're giving up a player who is relatively cost controlled and under team control for two seasons after the present one, the asking price should be high.

[Cellar-Door]

Hmm won't let me quote on a mobile browser.
Anyway, to Rasputin, my point about Punto was in response to the idea he could/should be replaced by Ciriaco. .325 OBP is decent career MLB number for a backup MI, especially when comparing him to Pedro Ciriaco, he of the .299 career MINOR LEAGUE OBP.
Ciriaco's hot spring, and series against the yankees in no way offsets the fact that he is not good.
My point on Aviles v Punto was that there seems to be a thought that Aviles might get a return of some kind, and that if that is the case the drop in power might be offset by much better defense and better on base skills out of the 9 hole. Aviles is a better hitter than Punto no question, but if you can get something for him why not make that move, you lose about .060-0.70 of OPS, but get better fielding. Maybe you even get lucky andnPunto's hot streak extends with numbers somewhere between his career averages, and last years' numbers, if so you might not lose any hitting.