126 replies to this topic

[BroodsSexton]

I just hope the [Youkilis] trade doesn't come back and bite us in the ass. It's probable that the White Sox are not going to be directly competing with the Red Sox for a playoff spot, so at least we have that going for us.

And perhaps Ben can parlay the million bucks and the savings on Jenks into something useful at the deadline. That would make me change my mind on the trade.

Three questions:

Should the Red Sox be buyers, sellers, or standing pat?

Assuming they are not selling, is Ben able to parlay the million bucks and the savings on Jenks into something useful at the deadline?

Final question (not on the poll): Put your predictions here.

Edited by BroodsSexton, 05 July 2012 - 09:06 AM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The Sox should be heading into the trade deadline prepared to be sellers.

If they're not in a position to sell at the deadline, it will be due to the talent coming back from the DL. To wit: an all-star starter, an all-star closer, two all-star outfielders, a rookie-of-the-year candidate at third, and a potential gold glove shortstop.

If they're still in a position to sell, Ben should be prepared to leverage the talent he has -- and listening to offers on every single player on the 40-man roster.

[brs3]

I think they're sellers. 82 games in, they're decidedly pedestrian in their pursuit for the postseason(though they're obviously very much within reach), and they've already dealt with more injuries than can be reasonably expected to bounce back from.

My first thought when Papi mouthed off was that quiet negotiations for an extension broke off, and he's gonna be traded by the deadline.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Hard to see them being willing to throw in the towel at this point with the hit that would imply to the brand image - that sellout streak needs to continue! Also hard to see them picking up anything that would actually make a difference at this point in the season, between too many teams still in the hunt, budget restrictions and lack of valuable chits.

[OCD SS]

There are 2 kinds of sellers:

They can move small, marginal pieces (bullpen pieces, maybe a spare OFer) but with an eye towards making a run when they get the other half of the team off of the DL. This might be closer to "standing pat", but these are not players they would move if they were committing to a playoff charge. The second kind of selling would be BP's anybody on the 40-man and they should only do that if the braintrust determines that the core they've put together really is not competitive. Guys like Pedroia, Buchholz, Lester, Gonzalez or (c'mon) Crawford are largely immovable unless things are being blown up (and even then)...

I think they're selling in the first sense, but I don't see them having a fire sale.

[bosockboy]

No way they sell....theyre 2 games out of a playoff spot with major reinforcements coming. I doubt they'd sell with only one WC spot available.....with two no way. As inconsistent as the team is...with their bullpen depth they could be a very tough out in October. They could easily put it together for 2-3 weeks.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I think they're selling in the first sense, but I don't see them having a fire sale.

FWIW, I think they've already moved the one player BobbyV wanted off the team at all costs.

I would expect every other move this season will be dependent on "winning" the trade, whether the Sox are buying, selling, or a little of both.

[lexrageorge]

Marginal moves of roster surplus are the most likely outcome, and does make the most sense for the reasons noted. I do believe the next few weeks will be critical, however, for the team in terms of deciding if this a team that is underperforming due to injury that has a chance being only 2 games out of the WC, or if this is a fatally flawed team that has little chance of truly being above 0.500 come September 1st. The season record on 7/31 will not be a small sample size. But I think the assessment will only have minor impact on the types of moves made.

Fire sale is unlikely, but if management does decide the team is truly flawed, I wouldn't be surprised if Ben did at least make inquiries about trading some of the bigger pieces. Pedroia and Lester aren't unmovable, and neither necessarily is Beckett, and if the team is swept by NY and then loses 6 of 7 after the ASB, don't be surprised if those names are floated around. Then again, the chances of something big happening are still remote.

What I really hope doesn't happen is that a key prospect gets moved for a marginal upgrade, but I tend to doubt this will occur. Lars is probably the name that will pop up, but who knows what he would actually bring in return.

[Savin Hillbilly]

To paraphrase Laura Nyro, I swear they ain't no sellers, but I pray they ain't no buyers.

Stand pat, please.

[czar]

I think they're sellers. 82 games in, they're decidedly pedestrian in their pursuit for the postseason(though they're obviously very much within reach), and they've already dealt with more injuries than can be reasonably expected to bounce back from.

My first thought when Papi mouthed off was that quiet negotiations for an extension broke off, and he's gonna be traded by the deadline.

People are crazy if they think the Sox are having anything close a firesale in the next few months. This ownership groups has already gone through amazing lengths to keep turnstiles moving -- selling off core players when you are 2.5 games out of not one but TWO playoff spots is certainly not going to be approved by the higher-ups. People who think otherwise are having a visceral reaction to the recent west coast swing.

Ortiz being traded* because he was quoted as saying he was "humiliated?" Please.

*The other (more logical thing) people need to consider with the new CBA is that expiring contracts are worth way less than they were in the past because if a player gets dealt in the last year of his contract the team that he leaves at the end of the season is no longer eligible for comp picks, even if they offer arb.

[LeoCarrillo]

Stand pat, please.

That's where I'm at. 2 games out of a playoff spot with injured all-stars returning. We're in it to win it, for better or worse.

Still, it sure feels like they're just gonna cook up 88 wins and a wild card only to see Lester lose a 1-game to Jered Weaver or else we get crushed by Texas later. I know you simply can't walk away from a possible postseason berth. But given the unlikeability of this team (even Papi and Pedroia are annoying folks right now) and the fact that we've got huge talent arriving in a couple years w/ Barnes, Bogaerts, Lavarnway, JBJ, etc., I swear it'd be more enjoyable to ship off Beckett or Lester to the Rangers or (Strasburg maxed) Nats and see what comes back.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

I can see an overstock sale where they move some of the OF and bullpen but not a going out of business sale where a Beckett and/or Ellsbury get moved. Maybe with the extra depth coupled with a prospect or two they could acquire a decent starter but with a few weeks to go still early.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They're more likely sellers than buyers, but it has nothing to do with where they are in the standings, now or at the deadline. As some of already alluded to, they're going to have a surplus of marginal role players within a couple weeks. I can see them selling off guys like Podsednik and Sweeney, Cook and Germano, Albers and Padilla. Guys that they have internal replacements for or are going to be pushed out by players returning from injury anyway, but also guys other teams might have a use for and will give up a B prospect or two to get.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

They're more likely sellers than buyers, but it has nothing to do with where they are in the standings, now or at the deadline. As some of already alluded to, they're going to have a surplus of marginal role players within a couple weeks. I can see them selling off guys like Podsednik and Sweeney, Cook and Germano, Albers and Padilla. Guys that they have internal replacements for or are going to be pushed out by players returning from injury anyway, but also guys other teams might have a use for and will give up a B prospect or two to get.

With all the respectable surplus they have could they, with minimal prospect help, and with a third team involved acquire Garza? Sending depth to contenders for prospects moved to the cubs?

[brs3]

People are crazy if they think the Sox are having anything close a firesale in the next few months. This ownership groups has already gone through amazing lengths to keep turnstiles moving -- selling off core players when you are 2.5 games out of not one but TWO playoff spots is certainly not going to be approved by the higher-ups. People who think otherwise are having a visceral reaction to the recent west coast swing.

Ortiz being traded* because he was quoted as saying he was "humiliated?" Please.

*The other (more logical thing) people need to consider with the new CBA is that expiring contracts are worth way less than they were in the past because if a player gets dealt in the last year of his contract the team that he leaves at the end of the season is no longer eligible for comp picks, even if they offer arb.

I don't think Ortiz being traded is the same thing as a firesale. Nor do I think he'll be traded because he's 'humiliated'. Papi is having a great season, and might be worth something to a team in the hunt that's missing a big bat. Could Papi be a difference maker for the Orioles? He's certainly better than Jim Thome.

[Punchado]

I think they are going to trade for a couple of speedy outfielders who can hit for some power, and a closer. Sellers? Have you all gone insane?

[Laser Show]

As the St. Louis Cardinals proved yet again last year, all you have to do is get to the postseason. From there, anything can happen. With the amount of time left, the amount of talent coming back, and the fact that we're 2.5 games out of a playoff spot right now despite everything that has happened, it would be foolish to mail it in.

That said, they better not be buying. This farm system is the best it has looked in years. Stand pat.

[bosockboy]

I'd say our surplus pieces are Sweeney, Albers, Cook and possibly Shoppach. I'd think Ben would be on the lookout for a decent 5th starter type to replace Doubront/Morales if they hit innings limits, and Dice-K if he's done (distinct possibility). Maybe a Brandon McCarthy type, or possibly Dempster if Theo is willing to take the correct pieces. We definitely need another reliable innings eater. And if a deal for an upgrade on Aviles fell in his lap, he might look that route as well.

[Savin Hillbilly]

And if a deal for an upgrade on Aviles fell in his lap, he might look that route as well.

How many SS out there are really clear upgrades on Aviles, though? I realize that he's an offensive black hole, but most shortstops are. And of those that aren't, most are either (a) mediocre fielders (e.g. Cabrera, Lowrie) or (b) obviously not available (e.g. Andrus). Are there any SS you can think of who have none of those three problems?

[bosockboy]

How many SS out there are really clear upgrades on Aviles, though? I realize that he's an offensive black hole, but most shortstops are. And of those that aren't, most are either (a) mediocre fielders (e.g. Cabrera, Lowrie) or (b) obviously not available (e.g. Andrus). Are there any SS you can think of who have none of those three problems?

Agree and admittedly hadn't thought it through, but maybe an Omar Infante deal if the Marlins sell. Better hitter and more sure-handed. Not likely, but as I said if it all fell right something like that.

[behindthepen]

the market should be a little different this season.

Helping things is that the change in compensation should make more veterans available.

Add to that, with the new Wild Card, more teams will be "in it".

So in theory, there should be more activity since there is both more supply and more demand.

[P'tucket, rhymes with...]

Surprised that "Trade a position player for a middle reliever" isn't a poll choice.

I think they decide to do it with the guys coming off the DL, or fall short and regroup over the winter. Stand pat.

[JakeRae]

I'm not sure if my position is properly characterized as standing pat or selling, but the Red Sox should be shopping their surplus of MLB players to get some value out of the guys they don't have space for. After that, they should roll with what they have as I don't think there is likely to be a value-positive upgrade available considering the composition of the current roster. The Red Sox need their high priced players to start playing up to their contracts. If they do, they could go on a huge tear in the second half. If they don't, then Cherrington is going to need to do some massive roster triage this offseason.

[Eric Van]

Sellers, of course, but not for the traditional reason. As has been pointed out, if they're not sellers, they'll be losing quality players via DFA.

Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Morales, Doubront, Matsuzaka, Cook, Germano.
Bailey, Aceves, Padilla, Atchison, Albers; Miller, Hill.

That's three pitchers more than you can fit on an MLB roster, and if you want to make room for just the best of Melancon, Mortensen, and Bard, you need to move four guys, which you could do because you'd still have anywhere from two to four adequate MLB arms in AAA (including Tazawa and maybe Prior, with Bard also iffy). The choices would appear to be Albers, Germano, and either Cook or Matsuzaka, and if you're moving four, Hill.

The position players reveal a need to move Podsednik and either Sweeney or Lillibridge.

Cherington has three tough choices:

Matsuzaka or Cook: who do you keep and who do you deal? That's a talent decision.

Sweeney or Lillibridge for 25th guy? That's a roster utility decision.

Melancon / Bard or Hill? Another roster utility decision. Who's more useful, a 5th RHR who is somewhat better, or a second / third LHR? Opting for the former also thins the pitching depth a bit.

[maufman]

Standing Pat.

The pitching depth is not so great that it's not likely to sort itself with a couple injuries/meltdowns, and even if it doesn't, I think Ben will choose to hold on to the guys who might have more than nominal value. It's the same story on the hitting side; Ben won't sell the guys contenders are interested in buying. We might see guys like Albers and Podsednik moved for organizational fodder, and if there's a late injury, we might see Ben take a flier on a decent player who clears waivers, but I don't anticipate anything significant in either direction.

[Beomoose]

If they are confident the talent's coming back in the second half, be it recovering from injuries or Adrian rediscovering his XBH swing, stand pat and make a run with a healthy team.

Of course, after the NY series I might be cursing a different tune.

[LeoCarrillo]

We always view buy/sell through the prism of the Sox GM's ideas. But I hope Ben's fielding calls on about 35 on the 40-man roster. For example, Pittsburgh is in first place but 25th in baseball in plating runs. They call and ask out of the blue, "What will it take for Cody Ross?" Maybe you like their prospects, so you swallow hard and go with lefty & righty Nava in RF and hope the difference is insignificant over two months.

Same on a guy like Padilla, who's gone after the year anyway.

It's a pseudo-sell and won't go over well with fans. But feels like a pseudo-sell kinda year, for the right kids in return.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 05 July 2012 - 03:46 PM.

[Manramsclan]

The thread title, and the poll question are a bit at odds. Prediction versus a question of what our opinion is on what they should do.

My prediction is that they will keep tinkering around the edges like they did this offseason. Their methodology is centered around the belief that this club, when healthy, has the ability to play well over .600 ball and make a run at that second playoff spot.

What I think they should do: Aggressively investigate the trade market in the interest of gauging whether or not they can get a contender to overpay for ML talent. I voted "Sell" but there is a significant difference for the Red Sox as sellers from almost every other club in the "sell" position. Many other clubs have internal pressure to unload talent because of salary considerations both for the current season and beyond. The Red Sox, Youk trade aside, don't have that type of internal pressure. One might even say that they have internal pressure to keep what they have rather than sell. That said, if they can reload with a few key trades and build for 2013 they should pull the trigger. You can always get the best deal when you don't have to make a deal at all.

The Padres got an absolute haul for Mat Latos last offseason. I'm not saying that a deal like that is available at the deadline, but it would be interesting to see what a club on the verge with a deep farm system might give up for a Lester, or Buchholz, or Beckett. The Sox have many bullpen arms that could be attractive and yield a higher return at the deadline than any other time.

There is a lot of uncertainty as to how the new CBA and extra playoff spot will affect the amount and type of activity. Some say that there will be both more buyers and sellers,others say that more teams will be in the hunt for a playoff spot so they will be holding onto their players instead of shopping them, and yet another camp says that the extra playoff spot will cause those teams with a shot to be more aggressive than they have in the past.

All of the uncertainty creates the perfect scenario for the Red Sox: a team with players that have value at the deadline, but a team that doesn't have to make a deal at all.

[Rasputin]

There is virtually no chance of being sellers. There's just no logic to it.

Similarly, buying looks like it won't make sense. If there are clear upgrades to positions where there isn't someone in the pipeline then fine but I just don't see it.

The bullpen is pretty much fine. The rotation with some combination of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Dice-K, Doubront, Morales, and Cook is pretty much fine.

Most of the position spots are either fine, have injured players returning, or are Adrian Gonzalez.

The bench is pretty fucking terrible.

I can see a move to get someone to make the bench better and I don't really consider that being a big buyer.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Speaking of Pittsburgh, I think there's a very good chance Lars is dealt there. I can't see a better fit for him in either the short- or long-term.

In 3-4 years down the road, an IF of Lars (L) - Walker (S) - Hanson (S) - Alvarez (L) to go an OF of Bell (S) - McCutcheon ( R) - Marte ( R) has the potential to be something pretty special. And extremely cheap, too.

[Harry Hooper]

Would Neal Huntington risk another trade with the Sox?

Pirates GM Neal Huntington, in a baseball roundtable discussion with Yankees GM Brian Cashman, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and Red Sox scout Galen Carr in Randolph, Vt., was asked to describe what it was and is like to negotiate with Epstein, who orchestrated the Bay deal as the GM of the Sox. Huntington responded with gallows humor.

“With Theo, he always knew the players we gave up, we weren’t going to get a lot for, so he wasn’t willing to give up very much, so that’s probably why we never finished a deal unless we were taking your money,” Huntington joked.

“Jason Bay?” said Epstein.

“Yeah, you orchestrated the Jason Bay trade, which I’ve really tried to block out of my memory,” said Huntington. “I really had forgotten that one, or tried to. Now I’m done for the night. Thanks.”

It was meant as a joke in passing, but on multiple occasions, Huntington referred back to that deal — a wild success for both the Dodgers and Red Sox (both of whom advanced to the League Championship Series in 2008) and a failure for the Pirates. The Pirates had arguably the most valuable commodity in the deal, a power-hitting outfielder in his prime who was performing at his All-Star peak. He was under team control not just for the 2008 season but also the following one at a contract that made him a bargain.

The Pirates were not going to be competitive in Bay’s remaining tenure in Pittsburgh, and so they dealt him on the assumption that the return would be greatest at a time when he could impact two championship seasons. The Pirates thought that the deal could impact them for years to come, as they acquired outfielder Brandon Moss and reliever Craig Hansen from the Sox and third baseman Andy LaRoche and Single-A starting pitching prospect Bryan Morris in the deal.

“We thought we were getting a guy with a chance to be an everyday right fielder (Moss). We thought we were getting a guy who had a chance to be a back-end bullpen guy (Hansen), a guy who had a very good chance to be a quality major league third baseman (LaRoche) and a starting pitcher (Morris),” said Huntington. “And right now, it looks like we’ve got a chance to have a reliever out of that trade.”

At another interval, when the GMs were discussing their worst trades, Huntington required neither time nor the actual names involved to make clear his sentiments about the Bay deal.

“I think my answer is pretty obvious, unfortunately,” said Huntington.

Moss signed a minor league deal with the Phillies after the 2010 season. Hansen pitched just 17 professional games over the 2009 and 2010 seasons before being released by the Pirates at the end of spring training this year. The Pirates non-tendered LaRoche after the 2010 season and let him sign with the A’s.

Morris, now 24, is the lone player from the deal who remains in the Pittsburgh organization. He was converted to the bullpen in Double-A this year.

WEEI

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Would Neal Huntington risk another trade with the Sox?

Why not? Over his first 6 months, Ben has traded away talent at a deep discount more often than Theo did over his last six years.

[SoxScout]

Do we revisit the Buchholz for Upton deal: Rosenthal: D-backs may consider offers for Upton

He is signed 13-15 for $38M. Towers wanted either the package we gave for Gonzalez or Buchholz that winter. A RHH power OF and allows us to look at all our options with Ellsbury, including dealing him.

[Savin Hillbilly]

NM....

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 06 July 2012 - 08:28 PM.

[OCD SS]

Do we revisit the Buchholz for Upton deal: Rosenthal: D-backs may consider offers for Upton

He is signed 13-15 for $38M. Towers wanted either the package we gave for Gonzalez or Buchholz that winter. A RHH power OF and allows us to look at all our options with Ellsbury, including dealing him.

I don't see it. Upton, whose talent is undeniable, is having a down year and is signed for pretty big money. An OF of Crawford/ Ellsbury/ Upton would be incredibly sexy, but OTOH the Sox are always going to need pitching and Buchholz has a great contract and this team is looking at a coming glut of OFers while looking for more pitching. Short term it doesn't make sense.

The Sox can just as easily keep Ellsbury and then transition to Bradley (and turn Ellsbury into something via trade or draft pick compensation). Upton would be a luxury item who would have to adjust to the AL while costing the Sox more money against the salary cap and forcing them to seek further reinforcements for the rotation (figuring that you have to replace either Buchholz, or Barnes as he would lead a package of minor leaguers). If AZ is dealing Upton you know they're basically looking for someone to overpay, and the Sox just don't need to overpaying for luxury items.

[Harry Hooper]

Buchholz's health history would likely scare anyone off.

Edited by Harry Hooper, 06 July 2012 - 08:59 PM.

[jsinger121]

Sell and sell as much as you can.

Top guys I would sell.

Cody Ross - He will get you a nice return to a team in a need of a bat.
Mike Aviles - Iglesias can step in for him and probably give the same production with the bat minus the power and better defense.
Josh Beckett - I'd pay some money to dump this waste of talent.
Vicente Padilla - bullpen guy who could help some team down the stretch

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Sell and sell as much as you can.

Top guys I would sell.

Cody Ross - He will get you a nice return to a team in a need of a bat.
Mike Aviles - Iglesias can step in for him and probably give the same production with the bat minus the power and better defense.
Josh Beckett - I'd pay some money to dump this waste of talent.
Vicente Padilla - bullpen guy who could help some team down the stretch

Iglesias, with his .589 OPS (in AAA!!!) is likely to be as good as Mike Aviles (.694)? How do you figure?

Josh Beckett is a waste of talent? He has a 4.06 ERA, a 3.75 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP in the toughest division in baseball. He's not a top of the league pitcher, but he's still very good.

And they should dump talent when they're 2 games out of a playoff spot? How does that make any kind of sense?

That said, they better not be buying. This farm system is the best it has looked in years. Stand pat.

This is where I'm at. With the amount of talent they have on the DL, they'll get back more than any team will trade for between the deadline and September. Leave the farm alone and start working young talent into the major league roster over the next few years as more and more vets start dropping off the table. There could be a really smooth and really exciting transition on the horizon. I don't want to see that neutralized for a marginal increase to their World Series odds.

[SoxFanPJ]

I don't think it would happen. But if the Sox fall out of contention quickly, and some NL team like the Dodgers is hurting for offense, I wonder if they could talk themselves into thinking Ortiz could play 1B regularly.

Given his performance and his contract issues, Ortiz seems like an obvious guy to cash in if you can get a ton of value in return. Of course that is without even talking about the 10/5 rights and other hurdles to such a deal.

As much as I love Papi on the field, if Cherington decides to sell (or if the ownership lets him) I think you have to explore all possibilities, especially with free agents to be.

[OCD SS]

Josh Beckett is a waste of talent? He has a 4.06 ERA, a 3.75 FIP and a 3.99 xFIP in the toughest division in baseball. He's not a top of the league pitcher, but he's still very good.

I don't think it would happen. But if the Sox fall out of contention quickly, and some NL team like the Dodgers is hurting for offense, I wonder if they could talk themselves into thinking Ortiz could play 1B regularly.

There is a glut of pitchers in this trade market, and no impact bat. Beckett probably isn't going to bring that much back, unless teams view his contract as a net positive. Otherwise Grienke, Hamels, Dempster, or even Garza are going to be more appealing, and then you've got a buyer's market. OTOH if a NL team thinks Ortiz can play 1B, then you've got the only offensive talent up for bids.

That said, I don't see the Sox dealing either. The core of the team is good enough to compete, but there are no obvious places to replace either player for the next year or two. (Trade Beckett and then sign Hamels? There is no bat they can plug in at DH on the market and they also don't have that bat in the system.) These are players that are part of the plan for the next few years.

[yecul]

The Sox won't make a big acquisition beyond getting players back from injury. They are not in the position to buy even if they had the assets available.

The Sox won't trade away (big) talent. They are not in the position to further deteriorate interest. The team itself is doing that all on its own.

So we'll see a small deal or two. Relieve the roster glut. Sell off a reliever. Something like that.

I would do whatever selling I could. If the prices were right I'd certainly move soemone like Beckett. Most likely I would try to trade exiting assets like Ross (presumably he will look for too much money and/or years to be resigned) and relievers.

[drtooth]

This series may be a major factor in what this team does at the deadline. A 1-3 series or a sweep may turn this team into sellers, especially given all the injuries. It would be unacceptable if the continuation of the fraudulent "sell-out streak" was a determining factor with ownership in the trade deadline strategy. Even with the return of Crawford and Ellsbury (likely not in mid-season form), is this team any better then an 85-88 win team at best? If not, they should become sellers.

[bosockboy]

Not the likeliest, but if Ellsbury played great upon returning, an opportunity worth considering is what Washington would cough up for a CF/lead off hitter like Ellsbury. They could move Harper to RF and would make them a legit contender to win it all.

I'd hope, that if Ben were approached with an opportunity like that, would cash it in.

Have to see where we are at after the Tampa series....might not be pretty.

[Plympton91]

People are crazy if they think the Sox are having anything close a firesale in the next few months. This ownership groups has already gone through amazing lengths to keep turnstiles moving -- selling off core players when you are 2.5 games out of not one but TWO playoff spots is certainly not going to be approved by the higher-ups. People who think otherwise are having a visceral reaction to the recent west coast swing.

Exactly. They've had terrible West Coast trips before, even with teams that went deep into the playoffs. And that terrible West Coast trip? It included, what, 3 of the 5 losses decided by 1 run? Nothing but an unlucky turn of events in the middle of a pretty good stretch of baseball in the face of incredible adversity.

*The other (more logical thing) people need to consider with the new CBA is that expiring contracts are worth way less than they were in the past because if a player gets dealt in the last year of his contract the team that he leaves at the end of the season is no longer eligible for comp picks, even if they offer arb.

I'm beginning to think this is an underrated point, that, together with the one-game playoff format is going to make the mid-sesason trade deadline very underwhelming. Teams with type-A or type-B free agents will need to be compensated by more than the value of the draft picks, and teams looking to acquire those types of players will be measuring the value of the player for 2 months. It would not surprise me if those costs and benefits resulted in a null set of trading opportunties.

This series may be a major factor in what this team does at the deadline. A 1-3 series or a sweep may turn this team into sellers, especially given all the injuries. It would be unacceptable if the continuation of the fraudulent "sell-out streak" was a determining factor with ownership in the trade deadline strategy. Even with the return of Crawford and Ellsbury (likely not in mid-season form), is this team any better then an 85-88 win team at best? If not, they should become sellers.

They were 42-39 over the first 81 games this season. Being an 88 win team requires that they play 4 games better in the second half than they did in the first half. I'll be absolutely shocked if 88 wins doesn't get you a spot in the play-in game. Even assuming no improvement from the return of Ellsbury, Crawford, and Bailey, that just means not blowing a 10 run lead to the Yankees, two separate multi-run leads to the Tigers, being able to beat a position player pretending to pitch, and flipping one or two one-run games.

The idea that this Red Sox team is somehow fundamentally flawed or inferior to the rest of the American League is nothing but an inability to grasp that a great deal of parity has come to the American League. There are 10 teams with legitimate shots at the postseason, and the Red Sox are one of them. Who wins will come down to who gets hot in September. People calling for the team to give up on July 31st unless they're clearly one of the 4 best teams are just plain quitters.

Edited by Plympton91, 07 July 2012 - 10:40 AM.

[Harry Hooper]

Barring a deal for someone like Felix Hernandez, it's hard to see a 2012 trade happening that is going to really improve the 2012 Red Sox. So, that leaves deals that will pay off in 2013 and beyond. If we exclude the prospects, who on the current roster a) might be worth something in a trade, and b) has a decent chance, if moved, of being near their peak value given their remaining career span (i.e. Ben would be selling high)?

Seems to be a short list:

Beckett (10/5 rights)
Lester
Doubront
Padilla
Salty
Ortiz (very limited possibilities)
Ross
Shoppach (if a strong team suffers a Buster Posey scenario)

[Rasputin]

Barring a deal for someone like Felix Hernandez, it's hard to see a 2012 trade happening that is going to really improve the 2012 Red Sox. So, that leaves deals that will pay off in 2013 and beyond. If we exclude the prospects, who on the current roster a) might be worth something in a trade, and b) has a decent chance, if moved, of being near their peak value given their remaining career span (i.e. Ben would be selling high)?

Seems to be a short list:

Beckett (10/5 rights)
Lester
Doubront
Padilla
Salty
Ortiz (very limited possibilities)
Ross
Shoppach (if a strong team suffers a Buster Posey scenario)

For most of these guys, a trade makes us substantially worse for 2013 unless they're traded for exactly what they are.

[jsinger121]

Barring a deal for someone like Felix Hernandez, it's hard to see a 2012 trade happening that is going to really improve the 2012 Red Sox. So, that leaves deals that will pay off in 2013 and beyond. If we exclude the prospects, who on the current roster a) might be worth something in a trade, and b) has a decent chance, if moved, of being near their peak value given their remaining career span (i.e. Ben would be selling high)?

Seems to be a short list:

Beckett (10/5 rights)
Lester
Doubront
Padilla
Salty
Ortiz (very limited possibilities)
Ross
Shoppach (if a strong team suffers a Buster Posey scenario)

The highlighted guys are guys I wouldn't even trade.

[Harry Hooper]

The highlighted guys are guys I wouldn't even trade.

It's not about looking to move these guys, it's about seeing if another GM will make a head-turning offer that makes you revise your thinking.

The one exception is Salty. As I posted May 10: he is always going to be too erratic defensively to be the major part of a catching platoon. Since he is a stronger batter from the left side, that makes him a misfit. Given the state of MLB catching out there, however, there could be some clubs still intrigued enough to make a deal.

Trading Salty also makes it easier to trade Ross. You can't leave Middlebrooks as the only RH power source if Ross is dealt, and Lavarnway fills that role if Salty has departed.

[TomRicardo]

We don't have a single valuable healthy asset to sell for major prospects.

Not one.

Ortiz has 10/5 and can only go to a handful of teams.
Aviles is a giant red flag (he is awful)

Ross and Stoppach can net us some useful pieces. Maybe Albers can get us a C prospect. Maybe get salary relief for Matzusaka.

And that is it.

Trading Doubront or Morales is pointless

[SoxFanPJ]

Two other catchers the Mets are interested in, the Post has learned, are Boston’s Kelly Shoppach and Seattle’s Miguel Olivo. Both fit the profile of what the Mets desire — a righty catcher with power to move Mike Nickeas off the roster. The Mets entered the weekend tied for the fewest homers by catchers in the majors (two). Their .618 catching OPS ranked 24th out of 30 teams.

~

NY POST

Shoppach's solid season (.885 OPS in 93 ABs) and Lavarnway's presence make cashing in Shoppach for a prospect as the most obvious trade for Cherington to make.

Edited by SoxFanPJ, 08 July 2012 - 09:04 AM.