139 replies to this topic

[ean611]

http://www.boston.co...ay_be_deal.html

Left hamstring possible injury from last nights game.

Yeah, bad time to have an injured 3b-man. Andy LaRoche is in the minors, but there's a roster crunch....

[jose melendez]

Jeez... who could have seen that coming.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Awesome. Great timing.

It's Punto time!!

[EddieYost]

I wish we had some depth.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'd feel so much better if we had a hobbled 33 year old veteran who was hitting 233 / 307 / 360 available to fill in.

[Joe D Reid]

I'd feel so much better if we had a hobbled 33 year old veteran who was hitting 233 / 307 / 360 available to fill in.

Considering the alternatives, I would in fact feel better if we had a guy like that available.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Considering the alternatives, I would in fact feel better if we had a guy like that available.

I'd take Youk over Punto to DH right now. Barely. To play 3B? Not on your life.

[TheoShmeo]

Do you trade depth in the outfield or, dare I say it, the pitching staff, for a better infielder than Punto or Lillebridge? Do you bring up someone from AAA? Are there any viable alternatives down there? Or do you go with Punto or Lillebridge for the next 7 games plus whatever is left over after the All Star break and just hope for the best?

Some will say that trading for a week or so is a panic move. Admittedly, the thought of seeing Punto or Lillebridge every day causes a level of panic and even gas.

[Doctor G]

You can bring up Andy La Roche. To create roster space, you could DFA Lillibridge.

[86spike]

Do you trade depth in the outfield or, dare I say it, the pitching staff, for a better infielder than Punto or Lillebridge? Do you bring up someone from AAA? Are there any viable alternatives down there? Or do you go with Punto or Lillebridge for the next 7 games plus whatever is left over after the All Star break and just hope for the best?

Some will say that trading for a week or so is a panic move. Admittedly, the thought of seeing Punto or Lillebridge every day causes a level of panic and even gas.

It obviously all depends on the severity of WMB's hammy injury, but since the All Star Break is looming, I don't think the team should go crazy trying to find a replacement. 7 games (3 of which are against OAK) with fill-in work by Punto and Lillibridge isn't the end of the world.

[EddieYost]

Considering the alternatives, I would in fact feel better if we had a guy like that available.

Me too. For now I would just platoon the guys we have and hope for the best.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Middlebrooks is 3 for his last 25 and seemed to go into the tank and exactly the same time Youkilis was traded, so perhaps the tradeoff in offense will be less than we think with him out.

[Yaz4Ever]

Isn't this why we acquired Lillibridge. That little kid must know something we don't, put him in coach. He's ready to play.

[Harry Hooper]

Sadly, I think Middlebrooks has been nursing a tweaked hammy for weeks, which raises the question of should he have been stealing yesterday.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

I'd feel so much better if we had a hobbled 33 year old veteran who was hitting 233 / 307 / 360 available to fill in.

Good because it looks like you're going to see a 34-year old who has career numbers of .246/.325/.326 to fill in.

OTOH, the Red Sox could look to trade for a veteran 3B like Ty Wigginton, Mark DeRosa, Adam Kennedy, Brandon Inge, Casey McGehee, Jeff Baker, John McDonald, or Chase Headley (Cardofo's suggestions, not mine).

[HillysLastWalk]

I'd feel so much better if we had a hobbled 33 year old veteran who was hitting 233 / 307 / 360 available to fill in.

Youkilis Last 11 games (4 with Sox): 12/40 3 2b, 1 3b, 2 bb, 1 hbp, 4k

I only post this because I'm tired of the "he's a .233 hitter" nonsense. The guy was injured at the beginning of the season. Let the man play more than 49 games before burying him.

[Yaz4Ever]

Good because it looks like you're going to see a 34-year old who has career numbers of .246/.325/.326 to fill in.

OTOH, the Red Sox could look to trade for a veteran 3B like Ty Wigginton, Mark DeRosa, Adam Kennedy, Brandon Inge, Casey McGehee, Jeff Baker, John McDonald, or Chase Headley (Cardofo's suggestions, not mine).

Won't happen. Ben trades infielders for relief pitchers exclusively.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Youkilis Last 11 games (4 with Sox): 12/40 3 2b, 1 3b, 2 bb, 1 hbp, 4k

I only post this because I'm tired of the "he's a .233 hitter" nonsense. The guy was injured at the beginning of the season. Let the man play more than 49 games before burying him.

Not sure I follow your logic...don't bury him over 49 games, yet just look at the past 11?

Fact is that he hasn't been a good player for a year. He can't catch up to fastballs anymore, and when he does, he hits weak groundballs. I hate to say it, as I really thought he was a huge part of this year's team, but the dude is cooked.

[HillysLastWalk]

Not sure I follow your logic...don't bury him over 49 games, yet just look at the past 11?

The guy was injured at the beginning of the season

[Savin Hillbilly]

The guy was injured at the beginning of the season

I think the question is, can we say "he was injured" in a sense that implies that at some point he will be fully healthy again (at least, as fully healthy as 33-year-old 3Bs get)? Or has he joined the ranks of the chronically and irreversibly unsound, the way Mike Lowell did at only a slightly older age? It looks a lot more like the latter to me.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why pick "the last 11 games", though? I'm guessing it's because he went 0-18 with 1 BB in the games prior?

Since he was activated from the DL, he's hit 240 / 342 / 370; and bulk of that production was in May, since he hit 208 / 296 / 306 in June. He's hit 231 / 259 / 269 with the White Sox.

In the second half of last year, he hit 199 / 314 / 346.

His GB % has increased four straight years- from 34% to 50%. His BB rate is way down, his K rate is way up. He can no longer catch up to fastballs- look at the trends.

Is he still injured? Perhaps, but is he going to suddenly become healthy and productive again? I don't see it.

[dbn]

Awesome. Great timing.

It's Punto time!!

This is the man that I was actually wondering/hoping if they'd pinch hit for yesterday when he came up with the bases loaded and two outs... in the 2nd.

[Toe Nash]

Youkilis Last 11 games (4 with Sox): 12/40 3 2b, 1 3b, 2 bb, 1 hbp, 4k

I only post this because I'm tired of the "he's a .233 hitter" nonsense. The guy was injured at the beginning of the season. Let the man play more than 49 games before burying him.

But in the last 7 games he's at a .528 OPS (beyond the lager samples others have posted). And the triple was misplayed.

He came off the DL and had a few good games. He had a couple good games right before the trade. If he's still hurt, that's a point against him and is in fact his biggest problem at this point -- he has too much wear on his body.

But yes when you slice up his numbers perfectly and use a large fontsize he looks OK. Should have kept him.

[TheoShmeo]

But yes when you slice up his numbers perfectly and use a large fontsize he looks OK. Should have kept him.

AND even if you can convince yourself that Youks' numbers look good when the light hits them just right, the fact remains that Kevin Youkilis was not going to be a happy camper on this team's bench. Some may say "so what?" but nobody much wins when a player isn't productive and is miserable to boot.

[Eric Van]

What is it about Nick Punto that makes people forget that baseball includes defense, too?

He's played 2232 career innings at 3B, which approaches two full seasons. UZR has him rated at +17 / 150 games. Fielding Bible DRS has him at +17. Total Zone has him at +19.

That's the equivalent of about 70 OPS points. It means the whole package, while not good, also is not the sucking chest wound that you'd think it was, based just on his offense. In fact, it appears to be somewhat below average, but not terribly so. It is absolulety something you can live with for a week or two.

[Pumpsie]

I hope someone in the media is tracking the Sox season closely in regards to injuries. It's just been astounding. Never seen anything like it. We haven't been getting great output from third this year (except for WMB's early hot streak) so we may be able to weather this as well. It's just amazing that this team is a half game out of a playoff spot as we speak. Amazing.

[Al Zarilla]

I hope someone in the media is tracking the Sox season closely in regards to injuries. It's just been astounding. Never seen anything like it. We haven't been getting great output from third this year (except for WMB's early hot streak) so we may be able to weather this as well. It's just amazing that this team is a half game out of a playoff spot as we speak. Amazing.

The Sox have been hanging in there (knock on wood). Look at the Phillies, sans Howard, Halladay lately and Utley just getting back: 9 games under .500.

Hope Middlebrooks isn't out long. He has shown great promise, but has some work to do to get more consistent at the plate. It's fun to see guys like him learn to hit breaking balls better, lay off the bad stuff, etc. Can't do those things when he's not playing.

Edited by Al Zarilla, 02 July 2012 - 12:22 PM.

[HillysLastWalk]

But in the last 7 games he's at a .528 OPS (beyond the lager samples others have posted). And the triple was misplayed.

He came off the DL and had a few good games. He had a couple good games right before the trade. If he's still hurt, that's a point against him and is in fact his biggest problem at this point -- he has too much wear on his body.

But yes when you slice up his numbers perfectly and use a large fontsize he looks OK. Should have kept him.

I clearly said, in my initial post, "The guy was injured at the beginning of the season". That was the reason I replied with the same exact text, but bolded. As I said at the time of the trade, let's look at Youks' numbers going forward. Or, let's at least not bury him after 49 games (a lot of those while injured). We could do the same exact thing to Pedroia. Right now. Look at his stats over the past month or so. HE'S WASHED UP - TRADE HIM!!!! Or we can give him a pass, knowing he was playing with an injured thumb.

We can all cherry-pick until the cows come home. This is what happens when you are dealing with small sample sizes. His first three games with the White Sox he was 5 for 12 (continuing along the lines of his last four games with the Sox, where he was 6 for 14). Then, he had a tough series against the Yankees in Yankee stadium (as a right-handed hitter). Ya know, the team with the best record in the AL East (and I haven't checked in a few days, but maybe the best record in the AL). It happens, but not necessarily indicative of his health or skill-set.

And really, and let me clarify, so I can avoid the pick-apart quote/reply hell. My only point is that going forward I don't think he's this washed-up .200 hitter. The only thing that will ever prove my point is looking at his numbers at the end of the season. And I could very much be wrong, but I don't think he's done. Even just last year, when he finished with a .377 OBP, he had the following by month (obp/slg):

April - .392./.487
May - .377/.485
June - .408/.482
July - .377/.489

Then he got injured, and he tried to play in Aug/Sept. Do we all not remember how unhealthy he was at the end of the year? And how he would grimmace? And wince? And he just looked in pain?

So he's been tossed to the side because of the last two months of last season (when he was injured). Meanwhile, the beginning of this season, he still wasn't right. Personally, I think he may get back to April-July 2011 Youks (one NYY series non-withstanding). Which isn't the washed-up piece of shit people are making him out to be here.

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 02 July 2012 - 12:29 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

I'd take Youk over Punto to DH right now. Barely. To play 3B? Not on your life.

I'd take Youkilis at third and Punto at short, since Aviles kind of sucks, and his suck is likely to continue. He'd be the odd man out/utility guy if Youk was still here and I had my way.

AND even if you can convince yourself that Youks' numbers look good when the light hits them just right, the fact remains that Kevin Youkilis was not going to be a happy camper on this team's bench. Some may say "so what?" but nobody much wins when a player isn't productive and is miserable to boot.

It's not about what they are, it's about what they are likely to be from here on out. I'll bet Youkilis will be better than any replacement the Red Sox can come up with. I find it hard to believe that people talk about "cherry picking" stats, when those same people use a block of 100 games when the guy was injured, over his prior 7 years. He's 33, not 40, and I really have a hard time buying that the guy is "cooked" because of a bad stretch when he wasn't healthy. Not to mention, we are talking about half a year here, not the next 3 years.

Edited by Ed Hillel, 02 July 2012 - 12:33 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I really have a hard time buying that the guy is "cooked" because of a bad stretch when he wasn't healthy.

What are you defining as the "bad stretch," though? His line since he left the lineup in August 2010 is .250/.355/.431, while missing almost half his teams' games. The line is not bad, but it's significantly below his career standard, and the trend is clearly downward--he came back and was reasonably close to his pre-injury offensive self in the first of 2011, then got hurt again and dropped off a cliff.

So this isn't about a sucky month or two. This is about a guy who sustained a serious injury, came back partway, got hurt again, and since then, in half a year's worth of games, has shown no signs of being capable of returning to form.

(Edited for more precise story arc....)

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 02 July 2012 - 01:02 PM.

[Todd Benzinger]

Isn't this what Lillibridge is here for? LaRoche has been awful in AAA... Doesn't look like an upgrade to me. Maybe you are all kidding about that.

[Rudy Pemberton]

LaRoche is 8-13 for the PawSox, with a 1692 OPS. Overall, 266 / 352 / 430.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 02 July 2012 - 02:21 PM.

[Ed Hillel]

Isn't this what Lillibridge is here for? LaRoche has been awful in AAA... Doesn't look like an upgrade to me. Maybe you are all kidding about that.

The same Lillibridge with an OPS of .382(!) this year? He had one good year last year, but has been consistently bad outside of that. It would actually be difficult to find somebody worse in the minors. The team is best off with Punto and Aviles now, and praying that they can stay healthy. Typing that sentence makes my soul barf.

[Eric Van]

I'd take Youkilis at third and Punto at short, since Aviles kind of sucks

Among SS he's 7th in MLB in fWAR.

Even his offense doesn't suck; he's 17th in wRC+ (minimum 200 PA), so he's average. He's been the third best defensive SS by both UZR and DRS. UZR has him at +14 / 150, DRS at +25, Total Zone at +11; only BP's FRAA doesn't rave, at +1. FanGraphs also has him as the second best base-runner.

Isn't this what Lillibridge is here for? LaRoche has been awful in AAA... Doesn't look like an upgrade to me. Maybe you are all kidding about that.

Lillibridge barely has any 3B experience (and is barely adequate defensively at SS). He's here to fill the Darnell McDonald role in the OF while also allowing you to pinch-hit for Punto if an infielder is hurt.

LaRoche turned into a pumpkin the moment he was traded from LA to Pittsburgh, and stranger things have happened that having him recover what he lost after another organizational change. Be that as it may, I wouldn't read anything into just a handful of good games.

[Koufax]

Jose Iglesias can play third. If we are going to suffer at the plate, why not give a defensive star a little time in the Bigs? I'd surely rather see him than Lillibridge.

[BannedbyNYYFans.com]

No Middlebrooks in tonight's lineup (Punto at 3B) but no DL move coming either, per Sean McAdam.

https://twitter.com/...926151844470784

Edited by BannedbyNYYFans.com, 02 July 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[NDame616]

Jose Iglesias can play third. If we are going to suffer at the plate, why not give a defensive star a little time in the Bigs? I'd surely rather see him than Lillibridge.

If the decisio is to DL Middlebrooks and bring up Iglesias, wouldn't it make more sense to more Aviles to 3B and let Iglesias play short?

[Savin Hillbilly]

Among SS he's 7th in MLB in fWAR.

Even his offense doesn't suck; he's 17th in wRC+ (minimum 200 PA), so he's average. He's been the third best defensive SS by both UZR and DRS. UZR has him at +14 / 150, DRS at +25, Total Zone at +11; only BP's FRAA doesn't rave, at +1. FanGraphs also has him as the second best base-runner.

In fact, if you were to ask the question "How valuable can a player with mediocre batted ball results and non-existent plate discipline be?", the answer would be "Mike Aviles, Red Sox, 2012."

Seriously....if you do a Play Index search of single seaons with ISO </= .154, BB/PA < .032, and BABIP </= .282, and rank them by bWAR, Aviles 2012 is #5 out of 14,982. And if you pro-rate his current bWAR to a full season, he's tied with Joe Tinker for best all-time.

I know this is kind of a convoluted metric, and leans far too heavily on half-season fielding stats, but it's interesting.

[The Allented Mr Ripley]

Jose Iglesias can play third. If we are going to suffer at the plate, why not give a defensive star a little time in the Bigs? I'd surely rather see him than Lillibridge.

Where do you get the impression he can play 3B?

[Koufax]

If the decisio is to DL Middlebrooks and bring up Iglesias, wouldn't it make more sense to more Aviles to 3B and let Iglesias play short?

I had lost sight of how much experience Aviles has at 3d base. Under the circumstances, I would give Aviles the choice. If he is comfortable playing 3d base, fine. If he doesn't want to move, he has earned the right to stay where he is (unless he is displaced by someone who lacks the flexibility to play 3d). Better to have one player out of position than two.

[Pumpsie]

I love this "Aviles sucks" thing. Yeah, Aviles sucks when compared to Nomar in his prime but he surely doesn't suck when compared to all the other shortstops in baseball right now. He's been one of the pleasant surprises of the season so far. What's been hurting him though is that he needs a rest now and then but Bobby V has so little confidence in Punto that he's running Aviles into the ground. I think that's a problem but Ben C. caused it by not providing a really adequate back-up there. Punto's presence on the 25-man has had a lot tiny repercussions so far but the main one is that Aviles is not getting the rest he needs to be at his highest productivity level. At some point, you may have to consider replacing Punto with Iglesias or Ciriaco and then rotating Aviles, WMB and Iglesias/Ciriaco between short and third. I bet Bobby has thought about this already.

[Cellar-Door]

I love this "Aviles sucks" thing. Yeah, Aviles sucks when compared to Nomar in his prime but he surely doesn't suck when compared to all the other shortstops in baseball right now. He's been one of the pleasant surprises of the season so far. What's been hurting him though is that he needs a rest now and then but Bobby V has so little confidence in Punto that he's running Aviles into the ground. I think that's a problem but Ben C. caused it by not providing a really adequate back-up there. Punto's presence on the 25-man has had a lot tiny repercussions so far but the main one is that Aviles is not getting the rest he needs to be at his highest productivity level. At some point, you may have to consider replacing Punto with Iglesias or Ciriaco and then rotating Aviles, WMB and Iglesias/Ciriaco between short and third. I bet Bobby has thought about this already.

So the solution to not having confidence in Punto despite the fact that he is hitting well over the last month is to bring up a player from AAA who is considerably worse than Punto?

[Koufax]

So the solution to not having confidence in Punto despite the fact that he is hitting well over the last month is to bring up a player from AAA who is considerably worse than Punto?

Last 10 games -.200/.275/.591

This is an improvement?

[Rudy Pemberton]

The obvious question, why do the Sox insist on continuing to carry 12, or 13 pitchers? They have a two man bench tonight. Is there any real reason Mortensen is still on the roster?

Regarding Aviles, he hits for an OK average and has power, but he doesn't walk and really can't hit righties. He hasn't really played well in awhile, and I think it's clear that he's just not an everyday player. You could certainly do a lot worse though.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 02 July 2012 - 08:58 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

Last 10 games -.200/.275/.591

This is an improvement?

you're really going to use an 18 PA sample?
Since June 1
.323/400/.884

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

The obvious question, why do the Sox insist on continuing to carry 12, or 13 pitchers? They have a two man bench tonight. Is there any real reason Mortensen is still on the roster?

Regarding Aviles, he hits for an OK average and has power, but he doesn't walk and really can't hit righties. He hasn't really played well in awhile, and I think it's clear that he's just not an everyday player. You could certainly do a lot worse though.

Because sometimes their starters pitch one goddamn inning, apparently.

[TomRicardo]

Mike Aviles is a platoon player who starts because he has no one to platoon with. He can't hit RHP ... at all. Nick Punto might be better at hitting RHP but it isn't enough of an upgrade to bother doing it.

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

[Buzzkill Pauley]

That's brilliant, BC.

[Eric Van]

Mike Aviles is a platoon player who starts because he has no one to platoon with. He can't hit RHP ... at all.

In a perfect world, sure, because using his wRC+ versus RHP he ranks as something like the 20th best SS in the game overall, rather than the 8th. However, as many other SS are RHB and most have some kind of platoon split, he's probably actually average or close to it versus RHP. One forgets the general suckitude of SS offense in the post-steroidal era at one's own peril.

There's certainly not a pressing need to relegate him to a platoon role, and maybe not much of a need at all. It's a pure luxury along the lines of upgrading the RF platoon to a potential All-Star, or replacing one of the starters with an ace.

Nick Punto might be better at hitting RHP but it isn't enough of an upgrade to bother doing it.

Well, Punto has a career 76 wRC+ versus RHP and Aviles is 80, but 60 this year. So one thing that would really help is to mix and match them both versus RHP based upon the opposing SP, maybe with Punto starting one game in three or four. That prevents Aviles from wearing down, keeps Punto fresh, and (if you've read the scouting reports right) upgrades the team on a given day.

Edited by Eric Van, 03 July 2012 - 09:18 AM.