8 replies to this topic

[E5 Yaz]

A month before the trade deadline and you expect all sorts of goofy ideas to be thrown against the wall, but here's one that might top all those about to arrive:

After watching him pitch Thursday night, it doesn’t take Dr. Charles Steinberg’s great vision, or Ben Cherington’s great baseball mind, to understand that King Felix fits perfectly with Boston.

The best part of it is that the Red Sox and Mariners would make terrific trading partners.

The Sox have two guys from the Northwest — Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury — who would probably love to come home. The dropoff from Hernandez to Lester isn’t overly substantial, and the gain of Ellsbury, a player who would electrify the Mariners’ offense, would be significant.

The Red Sox would probably need to get a little more in return for giving up their No. 1 pitcher and last season’s runner-up for American League MVP. The Mariners could be kind and throw in Franklin Gutierrez or Michael Saunders.


Or the Mariners could get greedy and say, “OK, we’ll make the deal, if you take Chone Figgins.”

http://www.boston.co...king_in_boston/

Cafardo has been beating the drum for a "true No. 1" pitcher all season it seems like, but this seems like a drastic idea ... even as bizarre speculation. If the Sox truly were thinking of trading Lester and/or Ellsbury, wouldn't it make more sense to send them in separate deals and get quantity over one piece of quality?

Given this seems more fantasy than reality, if it were on the table ... would it be worth it?

Edited by E5 Yaz, 30 June 2012 - 12:47 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

This is Cafardo in his own fantasy world where every other team in the league is there to make the Red Sox better. If Seattle would do Ellsbury and Lester for Felix today, absolutely the Red Sox would do it and never look back. But they'd never in a million years go for such a deal. What do they have to gain by it? It won't save them money, since Felix's salary next season is probably less than what it would cost for both Lester and Ellsbury, and then Ellsbury hits free agency after that. They don't get younger with the deal since Felix is two years younger than both of them.

It's inane speculation from an inane know-nothing writer. Not worth the thread.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

If you assume that Lester will never return to being the dominant top of the rotation starter he was for three seasons and that Ellsbury is gone after next year anyway, then yeah, it does. But those are two very big assumptions. I'm also not convinced that Seattle would consider that enough to move Hernandez. They wouldn't be getting any long term pieces that are cheap for shipping out a 26 year old pitcher who is consistently one of the top 5 in the majors.

This doesn't make sense on either end unless you make the assumptions I mention above, and if that's the case, why wouldn't Seattle think the same thing is possible?

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 30 June 2012 - 12:57 PM.

[Fishercat]

If you assume that Lester will never return to being the dominant top of the rotation starter he was for three seasons and that Ellsbury is gone after next year anyway, then yeah, it does. But those are two very big assumptions. I'm also not convinced that Seattle would consider that enough to move Hernandez. They wouldn't be getting any long term pieces that are cheap for shipping out a 26 year old pitcher who is consistently one of the top 5 in the majors.

This doesn't make sense on either end unless you make the assumptions I mention above, and if that's the case, why wouldn't Seattle think the same thing is possible?

Took the words right out of my mouth. The bigger point to me is the second one: if you can extend Ellsbury, this is a no-go. And even if you can't...is King Felix really substantially better than Jon Lester. Sure, we've seen Lester have a really tough year and last year was a bit of a decline too, but this isn't the 2009-2010 Felix either on the superficial stats (similar FIP/xFIP, but he got "lucky" in 09-10 and "unlucky" in 11). He's also hit nearly 240 IP a year for the past three years. A sign of good health, but I worry a bit about overworking him as well. Take him out of Safeco and put him in Fenway, and this may not be as drastic a difference as it seems. I don't think it makes sense for Boston because it weakens them for 2013 and projecting pitchers long-term is a dangerous game, I don't think it makes sense for Seattle because they aren't a short-term team and it's very well possible Ellsbury won't stay there either.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Deal really makes no sense for Seattle. If they are planning on contending, they'd want Felix. If not, they'd want players younger and cheaper (and under control longer) than Ellsbury and Lester. I suspect they'd want some combination of Middlebrooks, Kalish, Bogarts, and Barnes, which really wouldn't work for the Sox.

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 30 June 2012 - 01:09 PM.

[E5 Yaz]

I think we'd all agree the trade makes no sense. But I guess Cafardo's wet dream raises a couple of questions that are being touched on here:

- Do the Sox actually lack and/or need a No. 1 starter?

- Should they invest in Ellsbury for what Boras will be asking?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think we'd all agree the trade makes no sense. But I guess Cafardo's wet dream raises a couple of questions that are being touched on here:

- Do the Sox actually lack and/or need a No. 1 starter?

This depends on how you define "Number 1 starter" though. If you mean a top 30 guys in the majors, I think the answer is definitely yes. If you define it as something more exclusive like top 10 in the majors, then probably not. It's too subjective to get a definitive answer. A better question is do they have a rotation capable of matching up against other contenders? To that It think the answer is yes.

- Should they invest in Ellsbury for what Boras will be asking?

That's a question that shouldn't and probably can't be answered right now. Another season to see how Bradley develops will make this decision far easier to try and answer.

[knucklecup]

Cafardo's reasoning for why Seattle would make the trade is that the players are from the same region as where they play home games.

Let that sink in.

[AimingForYoko]

Cafardo's reasoning for why Seattle would make the trade is that the players are from the same region as where they play home games.

Let that sink in.

To be fair, that's been everyone's reasoning for trading Ells out west. But it's still stupid.