16 replies to this topic

[Double X]

I took a look at Jarrod Saltalamacchia's stats at Fangraphs the other day and wondered whether the Sox should look to trade him. The presence of Ryan Lavarnway in Pawtucket is obviously part of the picture. In his brief time in Boston last year, Lavarnway looked to be able to replicate the power and patience that he showed in the minor leagues in the majors. The Sox seem to be comfortable with his defense. It's not as though he has nothing to work on in Pawtucket, but he appears to be ready for the major leagues.

On the other hand, I can't imagine Saltalamacchia's value will ever be higher. He's now amassed just short of 1500 plate appearances. In that time, he's walked 7.7% of the time. Excepting 2008, he's never had a walk rate higher than league average. He's also struck out 28.5% of the time. He's always been way above league average. His success this year has not been due to substantial improvements in either of these areas: he's walked just 6.5% of the time, and struck out 26.9% of the time. At this point, it seems likely that this is who he is.

What he has done this year is hit for a lot more power. He's hit home runs on 20% of his fly balls this year, much higher than his career rate of 13%. Given his career numbers and that only nine players had home run per fly ball rates over 20% last year he's most likely going to regress a fair amount. Which leaves him as a good, but not nearly as valuable a hitter. In addition, given the home runs, it's likely his salary's going to go up a bit in arbitration. Not excessive, but enough.

It's not that Saltalamacchia's not a decent player; he is. But everything else seems to add up to this (or maybe this off-season) being the right time to get some value back for him. What do other people think?

[collings94]

Nick Cafardo mentioned in the Globe today that it would be smart for the Mets to shop R.A. Dickey because his value will probably never be higher. Lavarnaway has a lot of potential, but it's so hard to find power hitting catchers, Salty needs to stay until he proves that his surge is just a fluke. Maybe you bring up Lavarnaway and give him some of Schoppach's reps to get him some experience?

[Rovin Romine]

Sure. But why now and for what? It's kind of like the Youks situation in reverse, actually.

There's no rush-to-trade, since you can always hold on to Salty for as long as it takes for Lavarnaway to get polished defensively and get his bat warm. At some point you simply call up Lavarnaway when you feel he's ready, let him adjust to MLB pitching, and learn the "varitek system" from Salty. If he stumbles, you still have Salty. If Lavarnaway takes off, there are *always* going to be teams who'll take him at any point (and drastically upgrade their catching offense) for fair trade value. Salty is one of the top 5 offensive catchers in baseball and has a decent chance to stay that way. Adding .150 points of OPS at a position will always appeal to a team.

So there's really no rush at all. Salty is cost-effective, and a Salty/Lavarnaway tandem until Lavarnaway dominates playing time (which might start to diminish Salty's value) would be awesome to watch.

I think the question becomes, with Shoppach being so hot and showing no handedness splits right now (.919/.904 OPS, L/R), do you trade *Shoppach* while he's worth something (say, to the Nationals) and use a more fungible backup catcher in the above Salty/Lavarnaway dynamic? I think it's unlikely - they're happy to get value from Shoppach for as long as they can.

If they had a desperate need at some point, any of their top 3 catchers would be valuable chips.

But the thing that's kind of weird is that I don't really see a trade need for the RS right now. I wrote about this in the Nava thread and concluded that Youk and Crawford were the only two who might be traded (especially if it brought room to maneuver under the luxury tax.)

If you assume that we'd trade to improve a slot, we really have little expectation of being able to do that:

C - Salty/Shoppach (Lavarnaway)
1b - Gonzo (Lars)
2b - Pedroia
ss- Aviles (Iglesias)
3b - WMB
OF - Ells/Crawford/Ross/Sweeney/Nava +many others
DH - Ortiz (Lars/Lavarnaway)
SP - Buchholz/Beckett/Lester/Doubront/Morales +DiceK/Cook/Padilla
RP - Bailey/Aceves/Bard/Melancon/Miller/Atchison/Mortensen/Albers/Hill +Tazawa

So, unless you're talking about cost-controlled 1-3 SP, immediate depth at 2nd, immediate depth at 3rd. . .there's no real clear place you want to upgrade.

I don't think Salty alone would give us a cost-controlled 1-3 SP, and I don't think the Sox would do that with all the potential in our current SP lineup. Only one guy needs to take a half step forward.

Other than that, you're just swapping names if you're trading to replace people further down the depth chart, because, frankly, the ones further down the depth chart have been playing/pitching very well.

The Sox have locked down "very good player" options at all positions, but their "Great Player" options have been floundering for various reasons. Gonzo, Ells, Pedroia, Crawford, Bailey, Bard, Beckett, Lester, Buchholz (and Youks, when we had him) have all seen injury/ineffectiveness time. Trading for a Prime player to supplant any one of these guys would be a huge cost. Trading any one of these guys themselves would be a huge risk due to their upside. The Youks trade made sense because of the WMB/Gonzo/Ortiz/Youks logjam at 3 positions. Now there's no logjam.

Honestly, I don't see another big trade happening, unless there's a season ending injury or somebody spectacular becomes available, like a possible franchise cornerstone.

[Tyrone Biggums]

Well unless you believe Lavernway's potential behind the plate is going to exceed Salty's there is no reason to not explore a trade that will help your rotation now. Keep Salty and deal Lavernway if it comes down to it

[jnlevetoncnmt]

Well unless you believe Lavernway's potential behind the plate is going to exceed Salty's there is no reason to not explore a trade that will help your rotation now. Keep Salty and deal Lavernway if it comes down to it

I don't know if Lavarnway will exceed Salty, or if he will be merely adequate, but Salty is only under control through 2013. That means if they deal Lavarnway they better get back something really good, and they better be ready to pay up for the catcher position.

[wine111]

I would want Lavarnway over Salty because I think he has at least equal power potential to Salty and has a better on base percentage, which the Red Sox value
highly. Add to that his being two years younger than Salty with the Sox holding several years of control over him, Lavarnway has more value. Lavarnway's OBP
is .401 at Pawtucket. That kind of on base ability extends a lot of innings and Salty just can't match that (.308 OBP with Boston this year and .307 for his career).
I don't want Lavarnway going anywhere. He should at least be the DH next year when the Sox may well decide to stop paying outrageous $$$ for a DH and finally
acquire an ace for this starting rotation.

I see a four OF jam between Ellsbury, Crawford, Ross and Kalish. I would rather trade Crawford as opposed to Salty, Lavarnway, Ross, Kalish or Ellsbury, but we
know we can't trade Crawford. So I would like to see Crawford in LF (where he does the least damage and I still like his athleticism in the outfield), Kalish in RF (love
his strong effort on the field), Ellsbury in CF, Ross at DH (love his cheap contract and RH power in Fenway), and Lavarnway at C. Letting Ortiz and Youk go and
trading Salty should save the Sox about $25 million that we can pursue our ace pitcher with and have $$$ left to get a SS that can upgrade our infield defense
without losing too much offense (Stephen Drew?). LOL, I couldn't resist. Back on the Drew merry go round! Where's the injury report?

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

The status quo right now seems totally fine. Lavarnway should not be sharing time at this point, and Shoppach/Salty is an ideal catching tandem. If someone blows you away with an offer, sure, you take a look, but I don't see much of a reason to trade any of those guys at this point.

[rglenmt]

Don't see Jarrod as a longterm ML catcher, do think he is a ML power hitter, so certainly can end up as a DH and maybe also develop proficiency at 1B. Within next 2 years Ryan Lavarnway and maybe Dan Butler or someone else will be Red Sox catchers. Salty has been traded quite a bit for a young player, not sure if that enhances his trade value, but certainly think Salty is tradeable. Defensive skills are margineable.

[Towney007]

Lavarnway is a terrible defensive catcher. I'm just not sure the Red Sox can stomach signing up for 6ish years of more bad defense behind the plate. Salty isn't a world beater, either, but I think he's at least a tick below average. I think Lavarnway's situation will be far more impacted by what happens with David Ortiz this offseason than what happens with Salty. If Papi walks, you've got a ready-made DH who can step in and catch part time. His presence means not only leverage in contract negotiations with Papi, but also Salty when he comes to the end of his arb years. So long story short - I think they'll keep Lavarnway unless someone wants him as the centerpiece to get a top-of-the-line starter. Then I think you risk that because DH's are findable in today's game and you've got a pretty good catcher already in Salty.

So they'll trade him for the right piece, but only that. In terms of Salty, there's no real urgency to move him unless they really think this is an anomaly.

[williams_482]

Don't see Jarrod as a longterm ML catcher, do think he is a ML power hitter, so certainly can end up as a DH and maybe also develop proficiency at 1B. Within next 2 years Ryan Lavarnway and maybe Dan Butler or someone else will be Red Sox catchers. Salty has been traded quite a bit for a young player, not sure if that enhances his trade value, but certainly think Salty is tradeable. Defensive skills are margineable.

"margineable" (marginal?) defensive skills does not mean he should be moved off the position. His bat is far, far, far moe valuable as a catcher than anywhere else.

DRS and Total Zone have Salty at -18 and -17 career defensive runs (-8 per 150 games) at catcher, respectively. Neither of these (to my knowledge) include Mike Fast's catcher pitch framing data. I do not know where to find that information for this year (and it would be a tiny sample anyway) but from 2007 (Salty's rookie year) to 2011 those numbers say his pitch framing was worth +23 runs total. combined with his DRS that works out to +5 defensive runs career, or +2 per 150 games.

How much is Salty worth as a Catcher vs a DH? Catcher positional adjustment is +12.5 runs per 150 games. DH positional adjustment is -17.5 runs per 150 games. That is a 30 run (3 win) swing (!!!) moving from the toughest defensive position to the easiest. If we calculate Salty's WAR at C and DH (using ZiPS ROS projections, but scaled to 150 games), we get these values:
Salty at C: 3.7 WAR
Salty at DH: 0.5 WAR

What if we think those pitch framing numbers are total bunk? instead of +2 defensive runs, let's listen to just DRS and give him -8.
Salty at C: 2.7 WAR
Salty at C: 0.5 WAR

In the end, unless you think that Salty's defense worth -30 runs per 150 games (which is an almost unheard of level of defensive ineptitude), he is much, much better off as a catcher than a DH.

[PhilPlantier]

Don't see Jarrod as a longterm ML catcher, do think he is a ML power hitter, so certainly can end up as a DH and maybe also develop proficiency at 1B. Within next 2 years Ryan Lavarnway and maybe Dan Butler or someone else will be Red Sox catchers. Salty has been traded quite a bit for a young player, not sure if that enhances his trade value, but certainly think Salty is tradeable. Defensive skills are margineable.

Regarding Saltalamacchia as a potential DH or 1B, are we confident that a guy with an OBP that hovers around .300 in a good year would fit those roles? Right now, there are 24 MLB clubs that are averaging an OBP higher than Saltalamacchia's as a team. Given his allergy to walks, he would have to maintain a SLG north of .480 just to hover around league-average production for a DH. Is there any reason to assume based on this strides this season that he will continue to show enough power to offset his complete lack of discipline?

[flredsoxfan]

I think Ben trades Salty if he gets blown away with a cost-controlled one/two/three starter. Unfortunately, Theo hamstrung Ben with the Lackey, Crawford and Gonzo contracts, which makes trading one of them almost impossible unless the Sox agree to eat a lot of money.

What really concerns me is Ellsbury's upcoming negotiations. Boras almost always takes his clients to free agency. Maybe Ben gets a desirable offer for Jacoby and lets him go - the money situation probably does not allow a long term offer to Ellsbury - I don't think the Sox go with another 100 million dollar contract - which is what Boras will be asking.

I'm hoping Ben gets imaginative and does something unusual because even with the expanded playoffs there will be quite a few teams fighting for two spots. The Angels are looking very strong and Detroit will hit their stride eventually - their starting pitching is too good. So, unless Baltimore, Tampa Bay, Toronto, and Detroit/Chicago all continue to play so-so ball the Red Sox could be in real trouble.

[OnBase]

Lavarnway is a terrible defensive catcher. I'm just not sure the Red Sox can stomach signing up for 6ish years of more bad defense behind the plate. Salty isn't a world beater, either, but I think he's at least a tick below average. I think Lavarnway's situation will be far more impacted by what happens with David Ortiz this offseason than what happens with Salty. If Papi walks, you've got a ready-made DH who can step in and catch part time. His presence means not only leverage in contract negotiations with Papi, but also Salty when he comes to the end of his arb years. So long story short - I think they'll keep Lavarnway unless someone wants him as the centerpiece to get a top-of-the-line starter. Then I think you risk that because DH's are findable in today's game and you've got a pretty good catcher already in Salty.

So they'll trade him for the right piece, but only that. In terms of Salty, there's no real urgency to move him unless they really think this is an anomaly.

By what recent statistical measure or recent scouting report? Have you seen him?

[Niastri]

My personal opinion (as seen in the blowing it up thread) is that the Sox should trade Shoppach while he is having a great year. Some team will do the Mirabelli swindle in reverse if they feel Shoppach can come even close to keeping it up... Just keep the phone nearby for when a starting catcher goes down with any kind of significant injury.

On the other hand, Lavarnway and Saltalamacchia are perfect platoon partners for when one is needed, but both also could be good DH candidates. The normal ratio for a catching tandem has been 2-1 for the starter. A catcher just wears out if used much more than that. If Lavarnway and Saltalamacchia are used primarily as a platoon and then as DH much of the other time, two positions are largely filled. The DH can then be used like other teams have used it for a long time: As half a day of rest for a good hitter.

Salalamacchia, the better catcher, catches ~100 times a year, while Lavarnway, the better hitter catches ~50 times a year. Both DH at least half the time when they aren't catching, with Lavarnway being our primary DH. This still leaves a ton of games for guys to stay in the lineup without having to play the field, and plenty of true days off for our catchers. When necessary, some young prospect gets pulled up to get into a few games in a year. Should one of the catchers get pulled, the other guy comes in from the DH or the bench to take over. The guy on the Pawtucket shuttle can make it to town by the next day if we need another catcher.

[alwyn96]

By what recent statistical measure or recent scouting report? Have you seen him?

Defensive statistics for catchers aren't very useful, but it's widely reported that glove issues are what's keeping Lavarnway in AAA. Virtually every scouting report mentions this, as do most quotes from Lavarnway and Red Sox officials. It's not particularly controversial.

Maybe he's made great strides in the past few months, but it seems unlikely. Hopefully he can get his skills up to "not a disaster." I will say that he didn't look that bad to me last year, although he did tend to stab at the ball quite a bit when receiving. I'm no expert in catcher defense, though.

Edited by alwyn96, 29 June 2012 - 12:31 PM.

[OnBase]

Defensive statistics for catchers aren't very useful, but it's widely reported that glove issues are what's keeping Lavarnway in AAA. Virtually every scouting report mentions this, as do most quotes from Lavarnway and Red Sox officials. It's not particularly controversial.

Maybe he's made great strides in the past few months, but it seems unlikely. Hopefully he can get his skills up to "not a disaster." I will say that he didn't look that bad to me last year, although he did tend to stab at the ball quite a bit when receiving. I'm no expert in catcher defense, though.

I'm aware of past scouting reports, but nothing recent saying he's terrible. I did see him a few times in AA (including some WOW! home runs) and he was worlds better in 2011 than 2010. The receiving / stabbing issues are where I'd like to find more recent opinion. SoxProspects hasn't updated their scouting profile for him as far as I can tell. Since Fangraphs pretty much hates Salty's defense, I'm just wondering whether Ryan still deserves the bad rap.

[Rovin Romine]

If his receiving skills were actually poor, wouldn't that show up in the minor league pitching stats?