97 replies to this topic

[bosockboy]

Agreed that he is likely done for 2012 at the big league level. There's no urgency to fix him because the bullpen is fine and he has been supplanted long term as closer by Bailey.

[Eric Van]

I would suspect Bard is the trade chip the Sox would most like to move at the deadline

BP is speculating that Lavarnway is the big trade chip. But what exactly would we be trading for?

The only trade that truly makes sense is a three-way in which they deal Matsuzaka to a contender for a prospect or two, add some trade chips of their own, and somehow land King Felix. (Not someone like Garza or Dempster. Hernandez is probably the only true ace pitching for a non-contender. And trading anyone else in the rotation is risking that the upgrade is too small to be worth the price.)

Could you get Felix for something like Bogaerts (ultimately blocked by WMB), Bard, Brentz or Jacobs, and the prospects you get for Dice-K? Would you want to?

[mfried]

BP is speculating that Lavarnway is the big trade chip. But what exactly would we be trading for?

The only trade that truly makes sense is a three-way in which they deal Matsuzaka to a contender for a prospect or two, add some trade chips of their own, and somehow land King Felix. (Not someone like Garza or Dempster. Hernandez is probably the only true ace pitching for a non-contender. And trading anyone else in the rotation is risking that the upgrade is too small to be worth the price.)

Could you get Felix for something like Bogaerts (ultimately blocked by WMB), Bard, Brentz or Jacobs, and the prospects you get for Dice-K? Would you want to?

I love this trade. Even substituting Cook for Dice-K.

[someoneanywhere]

I'd expect a big injury before a trade.

To Bard? Or to the guy standing innocently in the on-deck circle?

Assuming, of course, he isn't traded. I would suspect Bard is the trade chip the Sox would most like to move at the deadline -- pitching coaches throughout baseball must be salivating at the chance to "fix" him to be their closer, while other organizations might be more willing to resume the starting pitcher experiment...

This, of course, has the mentality of the average pro coach down pat.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I would absolutely not trade Bogaerts for anything. I kid about driving the JBJ bandwagon, but Xander is my one untouchable in the minors.

Though really, after the start the Sox had this season I wouldn't trade any of the top four prospects (IMO: Xander, Bradley, Barnes, and Lavarnway). Injury replacements alone should represent this year's mid-season acquisitions, and then you just hang onto your butt hoping for the best.

Crawford may be a marginal upgrade in LF, but Ellsbury should be about as impactful an addition as anything available now that only a few teams are really out of contention. And as for pitching -- well, it's always come down to whether Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz can get the job done. Two of them should be back relatively soon.

[edit:] As an afterthought, I could see Bard + Brentz + Britton/Workman traded to Chicago for Garza + PTBNL. There's really no other pitcher I'd target in the trade market.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 30 June 2012 - 11:48 AM.

[bosockboy]

Curious what the rental package cost will look like on Hamels. I think our system might match Philly's organizational needs pretty well.

[NoLastCall125]

Could you get Felix for something like Bogaerts (ultimately blocked by WMB), Bard, Brentz or Jacobs, and the prospects you get for Dice-K? Would you want to?

I'm also in the "don't trade Bogaerts" camp, but I doubt that even this deal could be enough to nab Felix. He's signed through 2014 and, even if he's expensive, if he were to hit the trade market I'm sure several more teams would jump in and raise the stock even more.

I would think it would take Lavarnway, Bard and Doubront just as the starting point, filling the back end with a couple of prospects that have shown potential in the low-ish minors (Workman, Ranaudo, Cecchini, Jacobs, De La Cruz, Ramos, etc) unless they were able to score some prospects in a Dice-K trade. The problem there is that if they do have to give up Doubront, they should probably hang on to Dice-K for starting depth anyway.

And a lot of the value in this trade hinges on Bard not pitching like shit and the Sox making it loud and clear that, along with Bogaerts, WMB and Barnes are completely off the table.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I love this trade. Even substituting Cook for Dice-K.

I agree with Buzzkill that we shouldn't be trading our top prospects. The farm system is about to enter a phase where it can start contributing every day players to the major league roster again and we're about to get a bunch of help back from the DL to bolster a team that, for all it's faults and a really poor start is still just one spot (2 games back) out of the playoffs with Baltimore being one of the teams ahead of them.

There is absolutely no reason to start dealing prospects this trade deadline unless it's for a long term player who is young with a ton of upside. Even then, I'm not sure it would be in the best interests of the club.

[Plympton91]

I'd expect a big injury before a trade.

Yup. Any day now, we're going to see Bard going for an exam on his shoulder or elbow, and the article will acknowlwdge that Bard has been having pain since late August of 2011. He thought an offseason of rest had helped it, but it started flaring up again soon after the season started. Some people are going to be surprised by that. I won't be one of them.

[Rasputin]

There is absolutely no reason to start dealing prospects this trade deadline unless it's for a long term player who is young with a ton of upside. Even then, I'm not sure it would be in the best interests of the club.

This team doesn't need to make a big trade to be capable of winning it all, all it needs is to get healthy.

[PedroKsBambino]

It's easy to forget as we assess what role would make a player most valuable and such that these are real people will (sometimes, and far more rarely than mainstream media projects) real limitations. The Bard to the rotation thing made a lot of sense, if one does forget that these are real people and that this real person had demonstrated a real limitation. In the end, this is a situation where the 'people' side should have been taken a lot more seriously.

Really sad, and hopefully a story that fixes itself with some time off.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Very true, but the 'person' we're talking about 'wanted' the transition to happen. It's not as if the Sox forced Bard into a starting role. He wanted it to happen, the Sox agreed and both had incentive to try it, mostly financial. It was worth a shot. Hopefully it doesn't cost him his career but I don't think it will - he's overcome control issues before.

(null)

[Van Everyman]

@PeteAbe: RT @aaronmgoldsmith: Daniel Bard's 7th inning: walk, passed ball, walk, wild pitch, RBI fielder's choice, inf single. 21 pitches, 9 strikes

[Clears Cleaver]

If you are watching this disaster on NESN tonight you've seen Bard go HBP, 2b, HBP, wp, wp, 1B...topped out at 95, had no idea where ball was going, crossed up Lavarnway twice...

there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

[SoxScout]

Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors.

Yeah, this is not going to happen.

Edited by SoxScout, 05 July 2012 - 07:16 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

If you are watching this disaster on NESN tonight you've seen Bard go HBP, 2b, HBP, wp, wp, 1B...topped out at 95, had no idea where ball was going, crossed up Lavarnway twice...

there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

This is the same logic that had people saying Buchholz should be placed on waivers except nobody would even bother to claim him.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Any chance he comes back as a power hitting OF?

[Rasputin]

Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

Can we please stop being ridiculous?

High payroll teams pay people to embarrass themselves in the minors all the time.

The likelihood of the Sox releasing Bard for performance issues before next season starts is precisely zero.

[Pumpsie]

If you are watching this disaster on NESN tonight you've seen Bard go HBP, 2b, HBP, wp, wp, 1B...topped out at 95, had no idea where ball was going, crossed up Lavarnway twice...

Wow. This is getting nowhere fast. They're going to have to shut him down just so he doesn't hurt somebody out there.

[Rudy Pemberton]

They wouldn't release him, they'd non-tender him.

[AimingForYoko]

there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

Please. They're not going to release him. They're probably going to shut him down or DL him for a period of time, which is really what they should have done anyway.

[fineyoungarm]

If you are watching this disaster on NESN tonight you've seen Bard go HBP, 2b, HBP, wp, wp, 1B...topped out at 95, had no idea where ball was going, crossed up Lavarnway twice...

there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

I could handle them paying Punto $1.5M to embarass himself in the minors, to avoid him causing my blood pressure to spike if keeps playing in the majors.

Bard is not going anywhere - at least not any time soon. He has no trade value. The line is that he is not hurt. He hit 95 mph - OK, better perhaps. One choice only - sweat in the minors and see if he can get "it" back.

[Cellar-Door]

.there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

1. We pay people millions to embarrass themselves in the minors all the time, hell lots of them don't even make it to the high minors.
2. We all love to criticize the front office in hindsight, but trying Bard at starter was the right move, and even if it failed there is no reason the front office should be expected to anticipate a complete meltdown like this, how many pitcher get moved from starter to reliever and vice versa, how many of those proceed to completely lose it and don't get it back? The answers are hundreds and almost none respectively.

[Lose Remerswaal]

If you are watching this disaster on NESN tonight you've seen Bard go HBP, 2b, HBP, wp, wp, 1B...topped out at 95, had no idea where ball was going, crossed up Lavarnway twice...

there is as good a chance he quits the game before you ever see him in the majors again. Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

What was it the front office did?

Make him suck as a reliever last September?

Make him suck as a starter here in April and May?

Or make him suck as a reliever in Pawtucket since he was sent down?


Something happened to him late last August. I don't recall a front office incident, could you refresh my memory?

[fineyoungarm]

What was it the front office did?

Make him suck as a reliever last September?

Make him suck as a starter here in April and May?

Or make him suck as a reliever in Pawtucket since he was sent down?


Something happened to him late last August. I don't recall a front office incident, could you refresh my memory?

There it is. Late August on now can be seen as a clue to Bard's 2012 performance, whether he was starting or relieving. Maybe the FO should have been on "this" (whatever it is) sooner. Maybe it was and we have been kept in the dark. That would come as no surprise.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There it is. Late August on now can be seen as a clue to Bard's 2012 performance, whether he was starting or relieving. Maybe the FO should have been on "this" (whatever it is) sooner. Maybe it was and we have been kept in the dark. That would come as no surprise.

Maybe I'm misreading you, but are you suggesting the front office might have known something was wrong with him last September and chose to keep it quiet and to just continue trotting him out there anyway before converting him to a starter and waiting until his velocity dropped to 91 and he nearly made widows of three Toronto player's wives before demoting him and continuing to let him do the same thing with less press coverage?

I slept 2.5 hours last night and have been up since 2:45, so if that's not what you're saying, I apologize, but it seems a silly statement if it's what you mean.

Anyway, at this point I'm actually hoping for news of an injury that has been lingering or building as it would give at least some hope of recovering. As is, his sudden inability to resemble anything even close to the dominant set up man he was is more than a bit frightening.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Maybe I'm misreading you, but are you suggesting the front office might have known something was wrong with him last September and chose to keep it quiet and to just continue trotting him out there anyway before converting him to a starter and waiting until his velocity dropped to 91 and he nearly made widows of three Toronto player's wives before demoting him and continuing to let him do the same thing with less press coverage?

Don't forget the part where Bard, his agent, and the team - despite at least one of them being aware of this injury - admitting that he would not be a major league starter.

[Rasputin]

Guys, the terrible September you spaketh of consists of three outings in one week where he gave up nine runs. It wasn't a bad month it was a bad week.

And something has completely fucked something up either in his head or in his mechanics and they'll figure it out in time.

[fineyoungarm]

Maybe I'm misreading you, but are you suggesting the front office might have known something was wrong with him last September and chose to keep it quiet and to just continue trotting him out there anyway before converting him to a starter and waiting until his velocity dropped to 91 and he nearly made widows of three Toronto player's wives before demoting him and continuing to let him do the same thing with less press coverage?

I slept 2.5 hours last night and have been up since 2:45, so if that's not what you're saying, I apologize, but it seems a silly statement if it's what you mean.

Anyway, at this point I'm actually hoping for news of an injury that has been lingering or building as it would give at least some hope of recovering. As is, his sudden inability to resemble anything even close to the dominant set up man he was is more than a bit frightening.

That is not what I am saying. Get some rest. His problems are not necessarily a physical injury. In fact, I doubt that is the case. Obviously, they don't keep trotting him out there in AAA if he is hurt.

[Doctor G]

Wow. This is getting nowhere fast. They're going to have to shut him down just so he doesn't hurt somebody out there.

They are going to have to send him to Fort Myers to work on his mechanical issues. I wonder if they still have any of those "Pitcher's Pals" laying around. Right now he is dangerously unable to control his pitches.

[The Gray Eagle]

This was always a risk with changing Bard's role. He already tried to pitch as a starter when he first signed, and was completely horrible at it-- career-threateningly horrible at it. Shifting him back to that role was always a risk that he would collapse in the same exact way, and now he has.

He was not the guy to change like this. You try it with someone who had a decent track record as a starting pitcher in the minors, not with someone who was an utter washout as a starting pitcher in the minors, who had to move to relief to salvage his career. (Yeah yeah yeah, the narrative adopted here is that his disaster in the minors was totaly blamed on the team "changing his mechanics" as if pitchers don't tinker with their mechanics all the time over their careers.)

This isn't the first time that pitching as a starter in the pros totally wrecked Daniel Bard, so people shouldn't be acting shocked that it happened again. It should have always been a risk that was factored into the decision. And a good reason to not try it.

[Cellar-Door]

This was always a risk with changing Bard's role. He already tried to pitch as a starter when he first signed, and was completely horrible at it-- career-threateningly horrible at it. Shifting him back to that role was always a risk that he would collapse in the same exact way, and now he has.

He was not the guy to change like this. You try it with someone who had a decent track record as a starting pitcher in the minors, not with someone who was an utter washout as a starting pitcher in the minors, who had to move to relief to salvage his career. (Yeah yeah yeah, the narrative adopted here is that his disaster in the minors was totaly blamed on the team "changing his mechanics" as if pitchers don't tinker with their mechanics all the time over their careers.)

This isn't the first time that pitching as a starter in the pros totally wrecked Daniel Bard, so people shouldn't be acting shocked that it happened again. It should have always been a risk that was factored into the decision. And a good reason to not try it.

No, he failed as a starter in a small sample at the beginning of his pro career, but he bounced back when returned to a relief role, so the Front office could expect that as a worst case scenario. Him completely losing his ability to pitch in any situation was not a reasonable thing to expect at all.

[gibdied]

He already tried to pitch as a starter when he first signed, and was completely horrible at it

Let's get the history correct: he tried to pitch as a stater well before that, such as his entire college career. Despite having pretty much nothing more than a fastball, he was pretty good, too. Then, in low-A, after the Red Sox changed his mechanics, he was utterly putrid. During the Hawaiian Winter League, Bard decided to revert back to his old mechanics from college. While his control was still erratic during the transition, he showed glimpses of the Bard we all hoped for. The narrative adopted here was adopted for a good reason - it's what happened.

As for this season, I know a lot of people who were against Bard starting are pointing to what's happened as vindication, but I still think he could be a really good starter. In fact, he was. Can anyone really complain about 18.2 IP, 18H, 9BB 19K, 3.86 ERA in his first three starts at the MLB level and first time starting in 5 years? But he rapidly unraveled as the season went on (disappearing velocity, vanishing command, loss of stuff/swings and misses, etc.). Yes, it was taking place when he was a starter, but I don't think it was because he was a starter. It's not that simple. Much like mechanical changes precipitated his bad pitching as a starter and reliever in 2007, I suspect mechanical changes are the root of this year's bad pitching as a starter and reliever. Or, more to the point, mechanical issues turn him into a bad pitcher, regardless of role.

Edited by gibdied, 06 July 2012 - 04:13 AM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Guys, the terrible September you spaketh of consists of three outings in one week where he gave up nine runs. It wasn't a bad month it was a bad week.

And something has completely fucked something up either in his head or in his mechanics and they'll figure it out in time.

Here's his game log.

I see 11 September outings, of which 7 I'd call bad.

Sept 1, 7, 10, 14, 20, 25th and 27

Good outings on Sept 5, 16, 17, 28

[mabrowndog]

They are going to have to send him to Fort Myers to work on his mechanical issues.

Agreed on where he needs to be sent, but not what he needs to work on. Everything appears to be mental with this guy. But yeah, Fort Myers is where he needs to be to clear his head and work on things away from the scrutiny of the media and fans. Even if it takes the rest of the season. I'm not seeing any consistently repeated mechanical flaws. Rather, it's a breakdown of the entire approach, which is now haphazard and disjointed. He seems like a guy whose confidence is completely shot, over-thinking every single moment and every single pitch.

Bard is the anti-Papelbon, often described as one of the most intelligent and cerebral players in the game rather than someone who just rears back and lets loose, and his interviews have reflected that description. Guys like him are the ones most prone to having issues with focus and concentration.

[The Gray Eagle]

No, he failed as a starter in a small sample at the beginning of his pro career, but he bounced back when returned to a relief role, so the Front office could expect that as a worst case scenario. Him completely losing his ability to pitch in any situation was not a reasonable thing to expect at all.

Unfortunately, the font office seems to look at it more like you do-- that it was inconeivable that Bard might fall apart as a starter again, that surely his utter horribleness last time was soley due to mechaincs, and not due to anything mental, that the worst-case scenario was that he would slide right back into being a good reliever if it didn't work as a starter.

If you look at this individual pitcher and his history, you could defnitely see that this was a possibility. But if you muddy the waters by looking at a thousand other pitchers, none of whom have a history like Bard's, then it suddenly becomes inconceivable that this might happen. It is happening now, but of course that's just random bad luck, right? Pitching as a starter and and a reliever are just the same, and other pitchers who've done this are more relevant than Bard's own history.

Let's get the history correct: he tried to pitch as a stater well before that, such as his entire college career. Despite having pretty much nothing more than a fastball, he was pretty good, too. Then, in low-A, after the Red Sox changed his mechanics, he was utterly putrid. During the Hawaiian Winter League, Bard decided to revert back to his old mechanics from college. While his control was still erratic during the transition, he showed glimpses of the Bard we all hoped for. The narrative adopted here was adopted for a good reason - it's what happened.

As for this season, I know a lot of people who were against Bard starting are pointing to what's happened as vindication, but I still think he could be a really good starter. In fact, he was. Can anyone really complain about 18.2 IP, 18H, 9BB 19K, 3.86 ERA in his first three starts at the MLB level and first time starting in 5 years? But he rapidly unraveled as the season went on (disappearing velocity, vanishing command, loss of stuff/swings and misses, etc.). Yes, it was taking place when he was a starter, but I don't think it was because he was a starter. It's not that simple. Much like mechanical changes precipitated his bad pitching as a starter and reliever in 2007, I suspect mechanical changes are the root of this year's bad pitching as a starter and reliever. Or, more to the point, mechanical issues turn him into a bad pitcher, regardless of role.

Wow, his entire college career! He was pretty dominant as a starter in high school and Little League, so we need to make that part of the sample size too.

Obviously when he can't throw a strike anymore, his mechanics are inconsistent and messed up. But that's a result of messing with his role, not some random thing that just happened. It's not a coincidence that twice now in his very limited time as a starting pitcher in the pros, he has utterly lost his ability to throw the ball anywhere close to the strike zone-- not just got knocked around, but was unable to throw like a professional pitcher-- but this never happened in his much longer time as a reliever.

He's just not a guy who is going to be able to pitch as a starter in the majors, or even the minors at this point. He is so messed up that he needs to go back to ground zero and work on the basic fundamentals and hope that he can save his career again. He should never start another game as a pro.

[lexrageorge]

How could anyone possibly predict that staring a handful of games would completely mess up his mechanics? Seriously, get a grip. You look at thousands of pitchers not to muddy the waters, but to avoid being swayed by an even smaller handful of starts at single-A, which are essentially meaningless.

This is 100% Bard's fault. If his career is now messed up, it means he wasn't as good was we thought.

[fineyoungarm]

How could anyone possibly predict that staring a handful of games would completely mess up his mechanics? Seriously, get a grip. You look at thousands of pitchers not to muddy the waters, but to avoid being swayed by an even smaller handful of starts at single-A, which are essentially meaningless.

This is 100% Bard's fault. If his career is now messed up, it means he wasn't as good was we thought.

We don't know that his mechanical issues are a result of starting or arose late last year and manifested themselves in late August and September. The reality is that we don't know jack - except that it probably is not a "physical injury".

[Joshv02]

Bard is the anti-Papelbon, often described as one of the most intelligent and cerebral players in the game rather than someone who just rears back and lets loose, and his interviews have reflected that description. Guys like him are the ones most prone to having issues with focus and concentration.

Agreed. And understanding that (with Tweksbury's help) was a large part of his prior success. We'll see if going back to that well helps.

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Now they have to weigh releasing him this offseason because you cannot pay a guy almost $2M to embarrass himself in the minors. Great work by the front office

Kei Igawa says "Konnichiwa".

[gibdied]

Wow, his entire college career! He was pretty dominant as a starter in high school and Little League, so we need to make that part of the sample size too.

Obviously when he can't throw a strike anymore, his mechanics are inconsistent and messed up. But that's a result of messing with his role...

There's no need to take one thing I said, exaggerate it, then ridicule the exaggerated thing I never said. That's stupid. College and little league aren't the same. The one teams look at to make decisions in the draft is probably a smidge more relevant.
Anyway, the point I made, and the primary reason I brought up his college experience, was to point out that he was a disaster in low-A even though he did not change roles. So, when you say he's screwed up, "but that's a result of messing with his role...", I'm pointing out that's not necessarily true because he's become messed up before without changing roles.

It's not a coincidence that twice now in his very limited time as a starting pitcher in the pros, he has utterly lost his ability to throw the ball anywhere close to the strike zone-- not just got knocked around, but was unable to throw like a professional pitcher-- but this never happened in his much longer time as a reliever.

That's not entirely true, unless you ignore his time in the HWL where, as a reliever, he walked 15 in 16 IP.

The bottom line here is that Bard has fallen apart twice in his pro career; in both instances he made changes to his pitching but in only one instance did he change roles. Furthermore, when he did change roles, the problem wasn't the role change specifically - it was the pitching changes he made that took him away from how he succeeded in the past. There's a subtle difference, but since what's happened to Bard is being used to argue he can't be a starter, it's an important distinction. The role change and the pitching changes are not causally linked. He could have moved to the rotation without making those changes. Indeed, Bard himself has said that, in hindsight, rather than making changes, he should have just kept pitching like he did in the 'pen, but in the rotation.

[Plympton91]

There's no need to take one thing I said, exaggerate it, then ridicule the exaggerated thing I never said. That's stupid. College and little league aren't the same. The one teams look at to make decisions in the draft is probably a smidge more relevant.
Anyway, the point I made, and the primary reason I brought up his college experience, was to point out that he was a disaster in low-A even though he did not change roles. So, when you say he's screwed up, "but that's a result of messing with his role...", I'm pointing out that's not necessarily true because he's become messed up before without changing roles.

Moreover, despite the attempt by Eagle to minimize your point, is that a top pitcher in major college baseball, such as Bard was, would normally start his career in high-A, not low A. For instance, Jonathan Papelbon, who was a reliever in college, started his Red Sox career as a starting pitcher in high-A. So, for instance, did Kyle Weiland. Bard started in high-A and was demoted to low-A because of the trouble he had making the mechanical adjustments the Red Sox forced on him before they even figured out whether he could be successful as he was.

That's not entirely true, unless you ignore his time in the HWL where, as a reliever, he walked 15 in 16 IP.

And last September, when he walked 8 in 10 innings.

The bottom line here is that Bard has fallen apart twice in his pro career; in both instances he made changes to his pitching but in only one instance did he change roles. Furthermore, when he did change roles, the problem wasn't the role change specifically - it was the pitching changes he made that took him away from how he succeeded in the past. There's a subtle difference, but since what's happened to Bard is being used to argue he can't be a starter, it's an important distinction. The role change and the pitching changes are not causally linked. He could have moved to the rotation without making those changes. Indeed, Bard himself has said that, in hindsight, rather than making changes, he should have just kept pitching like he did in the 'pen, but in the rotation.

Exactly. Anyone interested in facts must admit that Daniel Bard started falling apart last August, before there was any change to his role or his repetoire. Unless you first stipulate to that, you're not making a credible argument. Changing to a starter after finishing the season so terribly may have accelerated that meltdown or it may have just been incidental. It was not the cause--unless you want to ignore inconvenient facts like his performance as a reliever last September.

[The Gray Eagle]

No, Bard pitched poorly in September, like a lot of major league pitchers do every month. He's way beyond that now-- he is unable to throw a strike, throwing wild pitches left and right, and mentally shaken to the point where he can't compete with AAA hitters. That's what he was doing the last time he tried to be a starter in the pros. His career was at risk then, and it's at risk now, it's beyond just pitching poorly.

This whole debate started when a few people declared that it was unforseeable that this could have happened. But it wasn't unforseeable, it already happened to Daniel Bard, and was only stunning if you tried to explain away what happened before.

If Bard's struggles in A ball were all due to his mechanics switch, then when he started dominating in AA 2008, he should have been switched back to a starter then. It would have been much better for his development. But the people working with him who helped him get back on track wisely realized that it would be a huge risk and it was better to leave him as a one-inning pitcher. He was having great success and repeating his delivery and it was coming together for him, so they left him alone.

That risk didn't disappear after he succeeded as a one-inning pitcher in the majors. There was always a chance that if he was going to start again, he could really go way off track again. Plenty of people predicted it. And now it's happened. Just because you didn't predict it doesn't mean that it is inconceivable or random luck. It should have always been acknowledged as a possibility when deciding whether to move him to the rotation (and to then start trading position players for relievers.)

[Rasputin]

Here's his game log.

I see 11 September outings, of which 7 I'd call bad.

Sept 1, 7, 10, 14, 20, 25th and 27

Good outings on Sept 5, 16, 17, 28

So he's basically never allowed to give up a run ever?

He allowed 29 runs on the season, nine of them in that one week stretch. Outside that one week, he allowed five runs in September compared to four in August, five in May, and six in April.

[Cellar-Door]

So he's basically never allowed to give up a run ever?

He allowed 29 runs on the season, nine of them in that one week stretch. Outside that one week, he allowed five runs in September compared to four in August, five in May, and six in April.

You're also taking out more than a quarter of his appearances, so those 5 runs come in just 8.2 IP, giving him an ERA over 5 even without the 8 day stretch in question, which would still have made it his worst month by more than a run and a half.

[tims4wins]

When you give up runs in 6 of 11 appearances, it's pretty simple: you had a shitty month.

He also had a lousy April and early May when the team was struggling... on the year he was a net positive, but his slow start and horrible finish were huge reasons for missing the playoffs.

[Rasputin]

You're also taking out more than a quarter of his appearances, so those 5 runs come in just 8.2 IP, giving him an ERA over 5 even without the 8 day stretch in question, which would still have made it his worst month by more than a run and a half.

Sure, his worst month, no question, but still within the kind of small sample size variance you get from short relievers. He made eleven appearances in the month. He allowed runs in consecutive appearances only in that three game stretch.

[NDame616]

Thought this deserved a bump. Per RotoWorld, via the Globe:
Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine said Daniel Bard is "getting close" to rejoining the team's bullpen.
Bard really struggled initially at Triple-A Pawtucket but has pitched much better of late, putting up four straight scoreless appearances. When he does return, the Red Sox figure to first use him in low-leverage situations.
Source: Boston Globe Jul. 29 -

The exact quote from Abraham's notes:

Daniel Bard, who has been with Pawtucket since June 5, has thrown four scoreless innings in his last four appearances, allowing three hits and three walks with four strikeouts. “I think he’s getting close [to returning to the majors],” Valentine said

Bard has given up 2 runs in his last 6 appearences (during the same game). I didn't watch the games, so I can't give too many details on his performance, but it still looks like he's having control issues. For example, his last appearence he didn't give up a run, but walked 2. 3 appearences ago, he didn't give up a run but did give up 2 hits. In those last 6 appearences he has given up 5 hits and 5 walks.

While it looks lie he is getting better results, I'm still afraid at what his ML results would be.