153 replies to this topic

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Right. I had some vain hope that they would promote someone who could play 3B without making us wince or leave the room each time he picks up a bat.

Garin Cecchini?

[Cellar-Door]

Who else at AAA is already on the 40 man? I think for infielders it is just Iglesias, who makes Nick Punto look positively Ruthian at the plate.

[Eric Van]

Well at least Clayton Mortensen gets to stay up. Guy deserves it.

If you optioned him today, he's not available for the Yankee series. Whereas if Doubront struggles early on Saturday, you can go to Mortensen early. Not just a deserving move, but a wise one. Everyone else in the pen is available tonight, most for multiple innings; they should be OK.

Re Gomez -- It makes sense to have Punto start and Gomez (.295 / .349 / .568 MLE, according to Davenport) hit once in the late innings, then have Lillibridge take over. Whereas a LaRoche or Ciriaco would just be injury insurance.

[bosox79]

This team really does lack ML ready depth at the hot corner, which is kinda funny cause they have a potential 3B problem with WMB XB and GC. Granted thats at least 1-2 years away.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If you optioned him today, he's not available for the Yankee series. Whereas if Doubront struggles early on Saturday, you can go to Mortensen early. Not just a deserving move, but a wise one. Everyone else in the pen is available tonight, most for multiple innings; they should be OK.

Reportedly, Justin Germano is going to be added to the 40-man and activated tomorrow, as he had an opt-out on 7/1 that he exercised. And all speculation is that Mortensen goes down to make room when that happens, so it makes sparing him today a moot point. Of course, since Germano has been starting at Pawtucket, he is a natural fit as a long reliever, and could even make a start over the weekend if it came to it.

[Pumpsie]

Re Gomez -- It makes sense to have Punto start and Gomez (.295 / .349 / .568 MLE, according to Davenport) hit once in the late innings, then have Lillibridge take over. Whereas a LaRoche or Ciriaco would just be injury insurance.

Gotta imagine that's the rationale here. And it makes good sense.

[Eric Van]

Reportedly, Justin Germano is going to be added to the 40-man and activated tomorrow, as he had an opt-out on 7/1 that he exercised. And all speculation is that Mortensen goes down to make room when that happens, so it makes sparing him today a moot point. Of course, since Germano has been starting at Pawtucket, he is a natural fit as a long reliever, and could even make a start over the weekend if it came to it.

OK, so we now have 8 MLB quality starting pitchers without options, plus seven relievers, plus two or three more (depending in Bard) first-rate relievers who do have options? Can you say "logjam, once everyone is healthy"? Sher you can.

Germano is presumably here to get showcased in an MLB appearance or two and then get dealt for a C or C- prospect when Buchholz or Dice-K comes off the DL and bumps Doubront or Cook to the long relief role. I'm not sure the downgrade to this weekend's long relief role is worth the prospect.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Of course, I'm in the minority, but I'll miss Daisuke next year. There's something about his feast or famine nature that really appeals to me, and when he pitches like he did today, he's really a joy to watch - his backdoor slider to lefties, his fastball he can spot and even throw upstairs for popups and strikeouts, his 15 different flavors of curveball.

He was pounding the strike zone today:



Would a better team have hurt him worse? Hard to say, since he was changing speeds pretty well and there was a lot of movement on just about everything, but it's possible the Royals just didn't have the horsepower to do much damage and Dice-k sensed it. Either way, a fun game to watch on a Monday afternoon.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Of course, I'm in the minority, but I'll miss Daisuke next year. There's something about his feast or famine nature that really appeals to me, and when he pitches like he did today, he's really a joy to watch - his backdoor slider to lefties, his fastball he can spot and even throw upstairs for popups and strikeouts, his 15 different flavors of curveball.

I'll miss the good Daisuke next year, but not the bad one we've seen so much of the past 3 years. Heck, I'd be happy to miss him this weekend if they can trade him for a "B" prospect.

[mabrowndog]

I'll miss the good Daisuke next year, but not the bad one we've seen so much of the past 3 years. Heck, I'd be happy to miss him this weekend if they can trade him for a "B" prospect.

I agree on trading him before 9/1, but I also wouldn't be terribly upset if the Sox re-signed this winter him on short money -- especially if they can move/dump Lackey. How likely that is, given that he's a Boras client, is questionable. But since Daisuke has already waxed poetic about how much he and his family enjoy living in Boston, perhaps the Sox employ a strategy Boras has agreed to in the past and put a Tek-type deal on the table that won't hamstring the club. Something like 2/18 plus a $12M team option and escalators for making 20, 25 & 30 starts per year.

At the risk of coming across as a cherry-picker: In the 3 seasons where he's been healthy enough to start at least 25 games (07-08-10), he's 42-21 with a 4.00 ERA, 120 ERA+, 1.34 WHIP, 1.97 K/BB, and a .233/.326/.371/.697 opp line while averaging 6.1 IP/GS and 29 GS/yr. In the 3 seasons where he's struggled to see action (09-11-12) he's 8-12 with a 5.47 ERA, 83 ERA+, 1.61 WHIP, 1.68 K/BB, and a .278/.360/.451/.811 opp line while averaging 5.0 IP/GS and 8 GS/yr.

The talent is there, and I don't think anyone can rationally dispute that. It's the adaptation, application and execution that have been problematic, and that falls on both him and how the Sox have handled him. If his performance is examined in a vacuum, without the specter of the $103M the club spent on him, even with the down years I think he'd represent a more-than-reasonable risk for his age 32-33-34 seasons. Obviously if Boras decides to play hardball and insist on higher salaries ($12M+) and 3 or more guaranteed years, they should just let him walk.

Edited by mabrowndog, 28 August 2012 - 07:52 AM.

[Cumberland Blues]

Save for the one start in Oak where he tried to pitch through the neck injury - he's been solid in his starts this year. If that continues through Sept - I'd be inclined to make him a qualifying offer. I dunno that anyone would surrender a pick for him - and a 1yr deal with a chance to hit the market again after a full healthy season would appeal to Boras. Yeah, it's alot of money - but if he's no good it's just one year. This is the sort of move the newfound payroll flexibility should let them make.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Royals draw the fewest walks of any team in the league. He was very good yesterday, but the competition was absolutely the best possible matchup for him.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The Royals draw the fewest walks of any team in the league. He was very good yesterday, but the competition was absolutely the best possible matchup for him.

Agreed. By my count, they offered at 12 or 13 balls. That's playing right into Dice-K's hand.

I'd be shocked if they offered him a qualifying offer. I think Boras would take that in a heartbeat and that's awfully expensive even for a pitcher who might return to #2/#3 starter form.

[Rudy Pemberton]

He hasn't been an above average pitcher since 2008. He's never healthy. He has a ton of miles on his arm. I've never got the impression he loves it here but perhapa thats wrong.

Yesterday was good, but it was the Royals, a meaningless game at the end of August. I can't imagine offering more than 5M, and I suspect he can do better elsewhere; wouldn't be surprise to see him end up with the Dodgers too.

[jsinger121]

Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN
Daisuke Matsuzaka was just put on trade waivers the other day; looked great in pitching vs. KC Monday.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Wonder why they'd have waited for him to be healthy to put him on trade waivers? Would have been a certainty to get through while he was on the DL, now someone might claim him.

And I doubt the Sox prefer him claimed to being able to trade him -- it's only about $1.5 million he's owed the rest of the season if they stick him with someone.

[mabrowndog]

Wonder why they'd have waited for him to be healthy to put him on trade waivers? Would have been a certainty to get through while he was on the DL, now someone might claim him.

And I doubt the Sox prefer him claimed to being able to trade him -- it's only about $1.5 million he's owed the rest of the season if they stick him with someone.

If that $1.5M gets the Sox under the luxury tax threshold, they'd be ecstatic. But I suspect they're already under it.

[yecul]

On the one hand, if he falls through you can shop him around. On the other, if you wait for a favorable start to put him on waivers, then someone might claim him. What's going to net the greatest leverage? In the former you have more suitors in theory, but is that the reality? He doesn't have a ton of value. In the latter, sure it's only one club, but there's some impetus for the trade to take place and a deadline to get it done. I think gaining information on his market (the tema has to place a claim) and setting up a set time makes sense.

[Drek717]

Wonder why they'd have waited for him to be healthy to put him on trade waivers? Would have been a certainty to get through while he was on the DL, now someone might claim him.

And I doubt the Sox prefer him claimed to being able to trade him -- it's only about $1.5 million he's owed the rest of the season if they stick him with someone.

Might just be a bit of chumming the waters.

Set him up with a start against KC, who his nibbling should work well against, get that one good start and immediately put him on waivers to generate a little more buzz.

I mean, the goal is clearly to move him for the best possible return, even if that return is salary relief. A little PR management might go a long ways.

[mabrowndog]

I don't think we need to look too far to see who'd claim Daisuke. The bottom 3 contending teams in the AL, in reverse order of record:

DET - The Tigers picked up Anibal Sanchez at the deadline to round out their rotation (Verlander-Scherzer-Fister-Porcello). A claim would merely be running interference on competitors.

BAL - Tied with the A's at 70-57, and I'm not sure which team gets claim priority. Regardless, Jason Hammel is about 2 weeks from re-joining the rotation, Drake Britton appears to have righted the ship with 2 solid outings after struggling his 3 prior starts, and they just traded for Joe Saunders (to join Chen & Tillman). While they recently optioned Tommy Hunter, they still have him, Miguel Gonzalez and Steve Johnson in the wings for SP depth. So like the Tigers, a claim by the Orioles would be just playing the spoiler.

OAK - After losing Bartolo Colon to the PED suspension and Dallas Braden to season-ending surgery, and with AJ Griffin's return from a shoulder strain still iffy, I can't imagine Billy Beane passing on Daisuke if he gets the chance. The A's have farm depth and can well afford to send a decent prospect or two that the Sox wouldn't have to add to the 40-man or subject to the Rule 5 draft.

[Paradigm]

If you can't get anything decent for him in the next two days, I say you try to bring him back next year. I'm always intrigued by a pitcher when he's fully recovered from TJ, and we're going to have plenty of gaps in the rotation next year. On the farm, Webster and Barnes need more seasoning, so I'd be happy with this rotation next year:

1. Jon Lester
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
4. Rubby de la Rosa
5. Felix Doubront

I'd be satisfied with that going into 2013. Factor in Lackey, and that's a very competitive rotation for a team that should be considered "rebuilding."

And, oh my god, the team finally has rotation depth! Depth! Can you believe that? If someone gets hurt, you can reach down to the minors for a guy like Webster or Barnes for a spot-start or four. Holy shit, can you believe that?

Edited by Paradigm, 28 August 2012 - 01:05 PM.

[Eric Van]

Daisuke now has a 3.13 FIP if you exclude his last start before he went back to the DL, which you absolutely should, as he obviously went out there hurt (and had a 35.10 FIP for that game).

Four of his five starts were at Fenway, which gives him an effective park factor of about 113. This more than compensates for facing weak lineups (average 4.17 RS/G using home / away splits for each club).

By my calculations, adjusting for both ballparks and opposing lineups gives him a 69 FIP-, which would edge Verlander and Strasburg for the MLB lead. Regress to the mean for SSS and he's still one of the better pitchers in baseball.

As long as he pitches decently in September, it may be very hard to find anyone they could acquire this winter who would project to be better, let alone provide more bang for the buck when you factor in his desire to re-sign.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Daisuke now has a 3.13 FIP if you exclude his last start before he went back to the DL, which you absolutely should, as he obviously went out there hurt (and had a 35.10 FIP for that game).

Four of his five starts were at Fenway, which gives him an effective park factor of about 113. This more than compensates for facing weak lineups (average 4.17 RS/G using home / away splits for each club).

By my calculations, adjusting for both ballparks and opposing lineups gives him a 69 FIP-, which would edge Verlander and Strasburg for the MLB lead. Regress to the mean for SSS and he's still one of the better pitchers in baseball.

As long as he pitches decently in September, it may be very hard to find anyone they could acquire this winter who would project to be better, let alone provide more bang for the buck when you factor in his desire to re-sign.

The bolded part is absolutely untrue. A pitcher who has shown flashes of being very good at times but has problems with consistency and durability is, by definition, not one of the better pitchers in baseball. Unless you mean "better pitchers named Daisuke Matsuzaka", in which case you are absolutely correct.

That said, the latter part of your post may be entirely true - Matsuzaka may indeed be better than anyone the Sox can acquire over the winter. They should absolutely consider trying to bring him back provided that the terms are reasonable. Its a shame that he isn't more consistent or healthy. And its also a shame that your valid observations are diminished by data parsing and hyperbole.

Edited by DeJesus Built My Hotrod, 02 September 2012 - 12:20 AM.

[Eric Van]

The bolded part is absolutely untrue. A pitcher who has shown flashes of being very good at times but has problems with consistency and durability is, by definition, not one of the better pitchers in baseball. Unless you mean "better pitchers named Daisuke Matsuzaka", in which case you are absolutely correct.

That said, the latter part of your post may be entirely true - Matsuzaka may indeed be better than anyone the Sox can acquire over the winter. They should absolutely consider trying to bring him back provided that the terms are reasonable. Its a shame that he isn't more consistent or healthy. And its also a shame that your valid observations are diminished by data parsing and hyperbole.

In that sentence I am discussing where a 69 FIP- over five starts would rank relative to other MLB pitchers. I have already stated that it ranks first when taken at face value. I then go on to say that after regressing to the mean for small sample size, what Daisuke Matsusaka has done in these five starts (which is the entire subject of discussion of the post) would rank among the better pitchers in baseball. Nothing is said whatsoever about his ability to sustain that, stay healthy, or any other stuff that everybody fucking knows about Dice-K. What the post is about is the surprising fact that in the five starts Dice-K has made this year, he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball.

(I had no idea myself until I looked at the numbers. People aren't aware of how much the one injured start is skewing the numbers. People have correctly focused on the fact that he has faced weak lineups and have discounted his performance appropriately, but no one has realized that four of his five starts have been at Fenway, where the 108 park three-year factor may even be too low, and that's a huge point in his favor.)

Now, I could have used a whole bunch of extra words to make what the post was about unmistakably clear, and perhaps I should have, but I would like to think that you're one of the only people on SoSH with the reading comprehension skills of a marmot.

[bosockboy]

Bringing him back for one year has really grown on me. Keeps you away from a multi-year deal, and fills the "devil you know" category. Fully motivated for a year to re-enter free agency, and buys a year of Barnes' development time.

[Harry Hooper]

Odds are a new manager and pitching coach coming in to establish a new regime for the players would not want the headache of Matsuzaka's requirements for special handling in terms of workout routines and whatnot.

[mabrowndog]

Odds are a new manager and pitching coach coming in to establish a new regime for the players would not want the headache of Matsuzaka's requirements for special handling in terms of workout routines and whatnot.

I agree this needs to be given due consideration and weight, so it would behoove the front office not to make any move to sign him (or any player for that matter) until after they've settled their managerial and coaching staff issues. Being that Daisuke's a Boras client, this plays into the sort of timing we've come to expect under SB's protracted play-everyone-against-each-other-and-never-give-in-until-it's-almost-too-late negotiating timetables.

[ThatsMyPeskyPole]

Make him one year offer. If he wants to stay, stay. If not...

[lexrageorge]

Getting "managerial approval" to re-sign Dice-K is ass-backwards. This isn't football; the manager doesn't get to shop for the groceries.

If Cherington and the front office feel that Dice-K is useful as a 4/5 pitcher next season, offer him $6-8M for one year and wait to see what happens. He hasn't been healthy since 2008, so that must be taken into account. However, if he stays, then the onus is on the manager and coaching staff to work with him to some extent. We don't need any more McClure's thinking they can run the clubhouse as they see fit.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Bump. Sooner we realize that this guy is what he is; which is a below average pitcher who is completely unreliable, the better. A career xFIP of 4.5, WHIP of 1.4, BB rate over 4....a total of 17 wins since 2009, with an ERA over 5. Players with that kind of performance should get a minor league deal.

[radsoxfan]

Bump. Sooner we realize that this guy is what he is; which is a below average pitcher who is completely unreliable, the better. A career xFIP of 4.5, WHIP of 1.4, BB rate over 4....a total of 17 wins since 2009, with an ERA over 5. Players with that kind of performance should get a minor league deal.

If you remove the starts right before he went to the DL with an injury, and then knock off a few more of his randomly terrible ones, you actually have a pretty good 4/5th starter. If you want to simplify it even further, and just decide to count his good appearances, he is actually one of the best pitchers in baseball.

I think that deserves quite a bit more than a minor league deal.... in EV's world at least.

(If the Red Sox re-sign him, I think I will be physically ill)

Edited by radsoxfan, 02 September 2012 - 05:44 PM.

[Trautwein's Degree]

Daisuke has thrown 280 total innings over the last four seasons. He's 33 next year. No thanks. Let some NL team give him 10 million next year. But as others have noted, if you eliminate his injuries and horrible starts, you're left with one of the best pitchers in baseball - the guy who almost no hit the Phillies a few years back.

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 02 September 2012 - 05:37 PM.

[MikeM]

Bump. Sooner we realize that this guy is what he is; which is a below average pitcher who is completely unreliable, the better

This.

2008 was a long freaking time ago. Dice-K will get more then a minor league deal this winter, but the guy is years past showing anything that's worthwhile of taking a $6m+ flyer. In fact, making any kind of offer there that essentially commits to him a courtesy spot in next year's rotation seems like an overly optimistic overplay, imo.

Time to move on.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It's shocking that against a team that isn't dead last in the league at drawing walks, he sucks donkey balls. Shocking, I tell you.

There's no way this guy should be here next year.

[LeoCarrillo]

That hypothetical about making him a Qualifying Offer after a strong September . . . yeah, no, don't do that.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

In that sentence I am discussing where a 69 FIP- over five starts would rank relative to other MLB pitchers. I have already stated that it ranks first when taken at face value. I then go on to say that after regressing to the mean for small sample size, what Daisuke Matsusaka has done in these five starts (which is the entire subject of discussion of the post) would rank among the better pitchers in baseball. Nothing is said whatsoever about his ability to sustain that, stay healthy, or any other stuff that everybody fucking knows about Dice-K. What the post is about is the surprising fact that in the five starts Dice-K has made this year, he has been one of the better pitchers in baseball.

(I had no idea myself until I looked at the numbers. People aren't aware of how much the one injured start is skewing the numbers. People have correctly focused on the fact that he has faced weak lineups and have discounted his performance appropriately, but no one has realized that four of his five starts have been at Fenway, where the 108 park three-year factor may even be too low, and that's a huge point in his favor.)

Now, I could have used a whole bunch of extra words to make what the post was about unmistakably clear, and perhaps I should have, but I would like to think that you're one of the only people on SoSH with the reading comprehension skills of a marmot.

In that sentence you stated, and I quote you again "Regress to the mean for SSS and he's still one of the better pitchers in baseball." If we regress to the mean for SSS for Clayton Mortensen's May performances, can we also refer to him as one of the better pitchers in baseball?

And out of curiosity, what does your sampling methodology do with a start like Matsuzaka had today? Cast it aside because it doesn't fit your view of the world?

It speaks volumes that someone with the reading comprehension skills of a marmot is able to see through the bullshit you consistently spew on this board. And unlike you, I don't have to parse your posts or adjust for SSS to make that statement.

Edited by DeJesus Built My Hotrod, 03 September 2012 - 10:07 AM.

[SMU_Sox]

I honestly didn't mind Eric throwing out his performance when he was injured. It's not that EV's "he had a 3.xx FIP in his healthy" starts was wrong either. It's what you do with that data. You can't project it. It's just not large enough of a sample size. And this is post TJ Daisuke so you may not want to look at his previous years as an indicator of what he will do now. He has had 2 really good starts, 2 mediocre ones and 2 terrible ones (according to FIP and xFIP). Let's see what comes next. I think we should be in a wait-and-see approach with him with low expectations.

What exactly do you mean though by regress to the mean? What did you regress and from what data? Are you regressing a component stat or are you just altering his FIP? I'm more curious about your methodology than than anything else. How you valuate him will impact his value as an upcoming FA.

Edited by SMU_Sox, 03 September 2012 - 09:03 AM.

[Plympton91]

To me, you're not really looking at results at all. You want to see how consistent his velocity is: if he maintains 92-94 mph on his 4-seamer all month, you can dig a little deeper. Then you want to see if he has the ability to throw his 2 best offspeed pitches for strikes. If so, you can build on that going into next year even further removed from TJ surgery. But, overall, he's not the type of pitcher the Red Sox need. He's not a potential #1, he's not particularly durable, and he's going to get a not-insignificant contract. Rudy is right, I'd offer him a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. He's probably better than Cook or Germano; that's about it.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Dice-K will probably get a 3 or 4 year contract worth about 10mil per this offseason.....


with a team named the Karp or the pigfighters or the flaming samurai's , because he'll be in Japan. Maybe he just never got used to the bigger balls we have here in the MLB? Other than the smoke and mirrors 2008, Dice-K has been a terrible signing especially when you throw in the posting fee. He has been injured, inconsistent and pain to deal with attitude wise. You can't put anymore lipstick on this terriayaki pig.

There is no way he should be back next year even if it's on a ST invite minor league deal.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Now his attitude is bad? That's the first I've heard of that. Seems to me he's tried to pitch through pain and in every interview he's talked about how he wished he was better and never shirked responsibility. He says he loves Boston.

I don't disagree that he's been a disappointment, but now he's a bad guy, too? Wha?

[Clears Cleaver]

This thread makes me laugh. Hopefully tonight's FIP effort will be his last in Fenway as a member of the Sox. Hopefully he will be facing them next year.

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Daisuke now has a 3.13 FIP if you exclude his last start before he went back to the DL, which you absolutely should, as he obviously went out there hurt (and had a 35.10 FIP for that game).

Four of his five starts were at Fenway, which gives him an effective park factor of about 113. This more than compensates for facing weak lineups (average 4.17 RS/G using home / away splits for each club).

By my calculations, adjusting for both ballparks and opposing lineups gives him a 69 FIP-, which would edge Verlander and Strasburg for the MLB lead. Regress to the mean for SSS and he's still one of the better pitchers in baseball.

As long as he pitches decently in September, it may be very hard to find anyone they could acquire this winter who would project to be better, let alone provide more bang for the buck when you factor in his desire to re-sign.

Will you admit that, excepting for your acknowledgement of the use of a SSS for your "analysis" you were wrong here? Because doing so will go a long way toward establishing some credibility amongst those who care about facts on this website.

The truth is that Matsuzaka is a MLB pitcher and nothing more. Sometimes he shows flashes of being competent and at others, he looks absolutely awful. However, he should never be described as "one of the better pitchers in baseball" if you are referring to Major League Baseball.

Edited by DeJesus Built My Hotrod, 09 September 2012 - 01:12 AM.

[LeoCarrillo]

Sounds like the team is ready to turn the page now. Gotta think he's still not right physically and in agreement that it's time to sit.

If healthy, he'd surely want to start 3-4 more times and try to boost his stock heading into FA. If so, that would make this a very combative organizational gesture toward a Boras client mere months before they'll likely approach him about extending Ellsbury.


Per PeteAbe:
Bobby Valentine said on Sunday that the organization is considering taking Matsuzaka out of the rotation and replacing him with Alfredo Aceves.
Matsuzaka couldn’t get out of the second inning against the Blue Jays on Saturday night, giving up five runs. It was the third time in his last four starts that the righthander was unable to complete four innings.
Matsuzaka is 1-5 with a 7.20 earned run average and will be a free agent after the season. With the Red Sox almost certain not to bring Matsuzaka back, keeping him in the rotation serves little purpose. “I'm not sure,” Valentine said when asked if Matsuzaka would make his next start. “Going to see. Have some meetings here with him, too. He was very disappointed yesterday. So was I.”

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 09 September 2012 - 06:31 PM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Jesus Christ. It's all rearranging deck chairs at this point. Who cares if Aceves starts and falls apart after 4 and two thirds or if Dice-K starts and gives up five in four innings or if Doubront starts and falls apart in the fifth or if Lester completes a game, gives up five, and loses 5-1? It doesn't matter in the slightest.

Keep running Dice out there. Maybe he figures something out and you can evaluate whether he's worth offering a contract to (he's mostly likely not, but you never know what might happen). Aceves will not be a starter on this team next year. He just won't. Dice-K probably won't either, but at least he's had recent flashes of brilliance and the fact that he's still only a handful of starts back from Tommy John gives you some hope for improvement. Aceves is what he is.

Or bring up the guy we got for Youkilis (I know his name, I just like calling him that) and let him get cuffed around again - at least he still has some potential to improve.

This whole idea that the Sox need to find a guy to get them some wins is a joke. What difference does it make whether you lose 20-2 or 3-1? You still lose every game. Start treating the rest of the season like spring training and stop acting like the wins matter. They don't. As long as everyone understands that the team is just working on stuff and exploring options, there's no real reason for anyone to get all down in the dumps about the losing. No one cares if they lose in spring training, right?

Well, that's what this is: Extended Spring Training. Treat it that way and stop with all the win-one-for-the-gipper nonsense.

[lexrageorge]

Well, if you look at it from the perspective of Extended Spring Training, then removing Dice-K from the rotation makes more sense.

Chances of Aceves being with the club in 2013 are probably less than 50/50; but the chances of Dice-K returning to the club in 2013 are about as close to zero as you can get.

[Rudy Pemberton]

The problem is they really don't have anyone on the 40-man to evaluate. None of the available starters on the 40-man (Stewart, Britton, Pimentel) is a candidate for next years rotation. Meanwhile, they are giving starts to Matsuzaka and Cook, who will both be gone next season, and a fatigued Doubront. They are giving a lot of at bats to Podsednik, but who else should get them? Nava Is hurt; Lin can't hit, etc. Iglesias, Lavarnway, and Kalish need to play, are, and have been awful; and does a month of losing nearly every game help anyone? This is just a mess; ideally you use this time to give playing time to prospects, but the Sox don't have much on the 40-man that will have much of a role next year. It's a team where more than half the team is playing out the string and ready to go home.

[Doctor G]

Well, if you look at it from the perspective of Extended Spring Training, then removing Dice-K from the rotation makes more sense.

Chances of Aceves being with the club in 2013 are probably less than 50/50; but the chances of Dice-K returning to the club in 2013 are about as close to zero as you can get.

Aceves should be given a fair chance to start next year. he shouldn't be punished for having issues with Valentine.He has taken the ball all season and has been as healthy as any pitcher on the staff. He is still a valuable asset, even more so if he wins the 4 or 5 slot as a starter.

I bet the Yankees would prefer not to see Aceves starting against them in NY if they are still fighting for playoff position.

Edited by Doctor G, 09 September 2012 - 11:16 PM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Will you admit that, excepting for your acknowledgement of the use of a SSS for your "analysis" you were wrong here? Because doing so will go a long way toward establishing some credibility amongst those who care about facts on this website.

The truth is that Matsuzaka is a MLB pitcher and nothing more. Sometimes he shows flashes of being competent and at others, he looks absolutely awful. However, he should never be described as "one of the better pitchers in baseball" if you are referring to Major League Baseball.

Even that's a stretch. The guy hasn't been any good since 2010, and 3 of his last 4 years have been complete wastes of time. Thankfully this experience is about to end.

102 million for him. 50 career wins with an ERA+ of 104. The vast majority of his value was acquired in his first two years, since then he's been a net negative.

Just an awful, awful return on investment.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Aceves should be given a fair chance to start next year. he shouldn't be punished for having issues with Valentine.He has taken the ball all season and has been as healthy as any pitcher on the staff. He is still a valuable asset, even more so if he wins the 4 or 5 slot as a starter.

I bet the Yankees would prefer not to see Aceves starting against them in NY if they are still fighting for playoff position.

Exactly. Aceves has a much better than zero chance of starting for this team next year, and Matsuzaka has a much worse than 1% chance of starting for this team (unless we find out he has one of those Lackeyesque "free" contract years for arm trouble clauses), so why not see what you've got. And scare the hell out of the Yankees by letting Alfredo be Alfredo out there.

Even that's a stretch. The guy hasn't been any good since 2010, and 3 of his last 4 years have been complete wastes of time. Thankfully this experience is about to end.

102 million for him. 50 career wins with an ERA+ of 104. The vast majority of his value was acquired in his first two years, since then he's been a net negative.

Just an awful, awful return on investment.

You're not Eric Van. I know Eric Van and you sir are no Eric Van. Eric Van will be able to make Daisuke's numbers sing show tunes and prove how good he was and why we should offer him a 3 year, $39 million extension.

[czar]

Aceves should be given a fair chance to start next year. he shouldn't be punished for having issues with Valentine.He has taken the ball all season and has been as healthy as any pitcher on the staff. He is still a valuable asset, even more so if he wins the 4 or 5 slot as a starter.

I bet the Yankees would prefer not to see Aceves starting against them in NY if they are still fighting for playoff position.

Wait, we can base value on the fact that "he's taken the ball all season long?"

Aceves' peripherals have gone in the tank after actually looking quasi-interesting in late April and May. Lately, they've actually regressed well beyond his already insanely lucky 2011.

He has non-negative value as a rubber-arm, long/mopup reliever (if he's not being a whiny malcontent about it), but there are about 1,000 better options than heading into 2013 with Aceves as the #4 man in the rotation.