153 replies to this topic

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

While the sample size remains tiny, we've now got three Major League starts to go on for 2012 and I think it's worth taking a look at what we've seen so far and to use this thread to discuss his performance in the bigs now that the rehab is out of the way.

To me, he looks a little better than his ERA would indicate. 0-2, with a 6.06 ERA looks ugly on its face, but there are some pretty positive peripherals:

1.102 WHIP would be the best of his career
3 k/bb is by far the best of his career, buoyed by a strong 8.3 K/9 and a low (for him), 2.8 bb/9.
7.2 H/9 is terrific by just about any standard

Yet he's given up 2 untimely HR and somehow managed to give up 11 ER in 16.1 innings.

So, what's up? Just a little snakebit?

Exploring stuff over at Brooks, it looks like he's getting slightly fewer swings and misses on the four-seamer (8.2 percent vs. 9.89 lifetime), but that could just be normal sample-size variation, and he's getting great swings and misses on the slider, change, and curve (in low numbers, admittedly).

Yesterday, however, he only had 6 swings and misses - but by my count he had 13 called strikes, which indicates he's fooling somebody.

One major difference would seem to be that he's only throwing the four-seamer 23 percent of the time, vs. 41 percent lifetime, and he's relying on his sinker and his cutter much more as a result (there could be some issues there with categorization, I guess, too).

In terms of other differences from past years, his horizontal release point seems to be adjusted slightly:



Not sure if that's intentional to avoid repeated injury or if it's significant.

So, all in all, while the results have been meh, I'm slightly encouraged by the performance. How do others evaluate his performance thus far and what should we expect going forward?

[drbretto]

My gut reaction, which is obviously going to pale in comparison with the detailed analysis we're probably going to see in this thread, is that he is still shaking off the cobwebs. In each of his games, he's started off terribly then settled down very nicely. I know he gave up the home run to Stanton last night right after they tied the game, but until that point he had retired (i think) 16 in a row after his first inning meltdown. He would not be the first decent pitcher to make a mistake against Stanton.

I still have hope that he can contribute for the remainder of the season.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

My gut reaction, which is obviously going to pale in comparison with the detailed analysis we're probably going to see in this thread, is that he is still shaking off the cobwebs. In each of his games, he's started off terribly then settled down very nicely. I know he gave up the home run to Stanton last night right after they tied the game, but until that point he had retired (i think) 16 in a row after his first inning meltdown. He would not be the first decent pitcher to make a mistake against Stanton.

I still have hope that he can contribute for the remainder of the season.

I've seen the bolded posted by several people in several places but it's simply not true. In his June 9th start his first 3 innings included 1H, 1R, 5K and 0BB. It wasn't until the 4th that he had a rough time.

I'm not sure what to expect from him going forward, but he hasn't really established a pattern since getting back. Of course, the familiarity of getting ahead and then nibbling stretches back to his arrival in Boston, so I'm guessing we'll get the Daisuke we all know and... well, know.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I think it's been more of the same, maddening inconsistency. Dominant at times, other times he has no command. Just never know what you are going to get, from one batter to the next.

[glennhoffmania]

I've seen the bolded posted by several people in several places but it's simply not true. In his June 9th start his first 3 innings included 1H, 1R, 5K and 0BB. It wasn't until the 4th that he had a rough time.

I'm not sure what to expect from him going forward, but he hasn't really established a pattern since getting back. Of course, the familiarity of getting ahead and then nibbling stretches back to his arrival in Boston, so I'm guessing we'll get the Daisuke we all know and... well, know.

If you look at his whole career, the first inning is his second worst by ERA, his worst K/BB, his worst OBPA and his second worst OPSA. I think it's a legitimate issue to consider and I agreed with Remy last night when he was talking about what they can do during his warmups to get him better prepared for the first inning.

[joe dokes]

Not terribly analytical, but I think I see the non-injured version of Matsuzaka out there. I think, going forward, that we'll see results somewhere between '07 and '08. It wasn't that long ago -- April of 2011, in fact -- that he pitched consecutive one hitters over 7 and 8 innings. He'll be maddeningly effective, with the maddening-ness frequently causing the effectiveness to be overlooked.

[bosockboy]

As always, he's an enigma. He's thrown 13 clean innings and had three bad innings where everything clustered. Not sure what to think of it, but if he keeps his WHIP this low things should normalize.

[Lefty on the Mound]

He is what he was. I think he's back to being a decent fourth or fifth starter, which is disappointing as we thought we were buying a #2 pitcher way back when.

Going forward he'll give up 3, 4 or 5 runs over 5 or 6 innings each start, giving the team at least a shot to win if they can score 6 or more runs. He is what he is.

[Pumpsie]

If you look at his whole career, the first inning is his second worst by ERA, his worst K/BB, his worst OBPA and his second worst OPSA. I think it's a legitimate issue to consider and I agreed with Remy last night when he was talking about what they can do during his warmups to get him better prepared for the first inning.

Absolutely. There must be SOMETHING that can be done with such an obvious issue like this, even if it's psychological. Maybe it's pitch selection. Maybe he falls into a pattern in the first that works against him. As you note, this is not a random pattern this year....this has been recurring his entire career.

[drbretto]

I've seen the bolded posted by several people in several places but it's simply not true. In his June 9th start his first 3 innings included 1H, 1R, 5K and 0BB. It wasn't until the 4th that he had a rough time.

I'm not sure what to expect from him going forward, but he hasn't really established a pattern since getting back. Of course, the familiarity of getting ahead and then nibbling stretches back to his arrival in Boston, so I'm guessing we'll get the Daisuke we all know and... well, know.

I guess my memory played with me a bit. Still, I don't necessarily think that one of the bad stretches started in the 4th necessarily negates my obvservation. Part of the cobwebs may well just include keeping his concentration.

Either way, I can't imagine anyone can have such good stretches in each of these games without the inconsistent part being somehow fixable. Maybe it is just as simple as nibbling when there are runners on and he is what he is. Maybe someone can get through to him to pitch like no one's on base. Maybe he'll be like this for the rest of his career. I'd still take him over wakefield as a 5th starter.

[lexrageorge]

I think it's too early to tell. The fact that his walk rate is well below his career average is actually encouraging for a pitcher just returning from TJ surgery. The rough inning continues to be his bug-a-boo, and last night the 40+ pitches in the first inning is what kept him from going deep. But at least he walked only one batter, and he helped himself with a couple of key K's.

As a 4/5 pitcher, we'll take this. If he sustains this, it will be better than what Bard was in the same slot, which will mean they've improved the rotation from within, and it didn't cost them a top prospect to boot. And I really don't want to argue whether this performance makes him worth his posting fee or not; that's no longer relevant.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If you look at his whole career, the first inning is his second worst by ERA, his worst K/BB, his worst OBPA and his second worst OPSA. I think it's a legitimate issue to consider and I agreed with Remy last night when he was talking about what they can do during his warmups to get him better prepared for the first inning.

The bolded is almost exactly true of the American League as a whole so far in 2012 (the only differences being that the OBPA is tied for worst and the OPSA is third worst). So I'm not sure we can say there's an "issue" there. It's pretty common for starting pitchers to struggle in their first inning and settle down.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I guess my memory played with me a bit. Still, I don't necessarily think that one of the bad stretches started in the 4th necessarily negates my obvservation. Part of the cobwebs may well just include keeping his concentration.

Either way, I can't imagine anyone can have such good stretches in each of these games without the inconsistent part being somehow fixable. Maybe it is just as simple as nibbling when there are runners on and he is what he is. Maybe someone can get through to him to pitch like no one's on base. Maybe he'll be like this for the rest of his career. I'd still take him over wakefield as a 5th starter.

His mechanics didn't look consistent to me last night, although obviously I am no expert. He appeared to be rushing through his windup some of the time.

[Sprowl]

DiceK's slurve looks like the only pitch that he can command when he has a wild first inning. The changeup sails high and outside, the splitter didn't fool anybody, and the fastball's location is unpredictable. The range of movement on the cutter and the slurve is a continuum between 92 and 77 mph, including a few hard sliders in the high 80s, plenty of softer sliders in the low 80s, and big bending slurves with >10" of horizontal movement.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

And if you look at those 24 offspeed pitches with 5+ inches in movement, just three of them were put in play, only one for a hit, and they generated 16 strikes. That's a damn effective pitch.

[dbn]

As he was finishing his outing yesterday, I was thinking "I bet he'll have a frustrating season then come up huge in the playoffs, a la Derek Lowe 2004." Funny that today we have this and the Lowe thread started.

[crystalline]

The bolded is almost exactly true of the American League as a whole so far in 2012 (the only differences being that the OBPA is tied for worst and the OPSA is third worst). So I'm not sure we can say there's an "issue" there. It's pretty common for starting pitchers to struggle in their first inning and settle down.

They also face the top of the opponent's lineup, so average batter strength may have an effect.

[lexrageorge]

I actually saw a lot of positives in Dice-K's outing last night. I'm sure critics will rail at his pitch count, and Felger-ites will complain that he somehow wasn't good enough to get the W, but consider that the primary cause of his pitch count problems was a rocky first inning in which he got no help from either his defense or BABIP, although going to ball 3 on the first 3 batters didn't help. In the 2nd, he helped himself with the pickoff and a big strikeout. He struck out Encarnacion on a 3-2 count in the 3rd, and did the same to Rasmus to end the 5th. The only walk was in the 6th when he started to tire.

It's an outing we'll take anytime. Given that of the 5 starters we had coming out of ST, 2 are on the DL and 1 is in AAA, he couldn't have picked a better time to show at least some of the promise we saw in Dice-K back in 2007/08. Hopefully it's a sustainable trend (jury's still out on that).

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Seems to me he's back to being the guy he was before he was injured. He has good stuff, mediocre command, is prone to blowing up for an inning here and there, has some really good outings that make us wonder if he's about to put it all together then a few bad outings which leaves us wondering what we were thinking. He's inconsistent, but good enough for a back of the rotation spot on a competitive team. Same he was in 2007 when they signed him.

2008 is sort of misleading, as his hit suppression ability that season seemed really tied into good defense and luck. He's never even approached a h/9 like that in any other year. His other peripherals are relatively stable, though his bb/9 is down this year which I expect to normalize given a larger sample.

He's more 2007 than he is 2008.

[fineyoungarm]

Seems to me he's back to being the guy he was before he was injured. He has good stuff, mediocre command, is prone to blowing up for an inning here and there, has some really good outings that make us wonder if he's about to put it all together then a few bad outings which leaves us wondering what we were thinking. He's inconsistent, but good enough for a back of the rotation spot on a competitive team. Same he was in 2007 when they signed him.

2008 is sort of misleading, as his hit suppression ability that season seemed really tied into good defense and luck. He's never even approached a h/9 like that in any other year. His other peripherals are relatively stable, though his bb/9 is down this year which I expect to normalize given a larger sample.

He's more 2007 than he is 2008.

- 30 - (Although maybe, just maybe, Bobby - sama (just ask him) can get a bit more out of the man.) Everyone who right now would take an 8 - 4 record with a, say, 4.30 era raise their hands.

[Eric Van]

I don't disagree with much of any of this except the overall evaluation of how good the '07 / '08 Dice-K actually was. That's still colored by the inconsistency frustration and the disappointment that he wasn't an ace.

Out of 95 starters with 250 IP combined '07-'08, Dice-K was 37th in FIP- and 39th in SIERA. That's borderline #2 / #3 starter. It's a guy a playoff team is entirely comfortable with as the 3 starter though ideally your rotation is so deep he's the 4 guy, whereas I think that folks are adding +1 to that. But he's better than Al Nipper.

Oh, and right now, so far, he's second on the club to Morales in FIP and third in SIERA (behind Doubront, 3.65 to 3.61).

Edited by Eric Van, 28 June 2012 - 02:18 PM.

[DaveRoberts'Shoes]

So...

[Rudy Pemberton]

Time to re-run those numbers. One step forward, two steps back. Assuming there are no injuries before Buchholz returns, is it possible that Dice-K loses his spot in the rotation?

[bosoxx05]

Release him, it doesn't matter if he is second in this,or third in that.He taxes the bullpen every fifth day,and with Morales and Cook in the rotation it's too much to ask of the pen.His contract is up,and I have zero confidence he'll find it.Good luck in the next WBC.

[bosockboy]

I don't think he's ever recovered from the 2009 WBC.

[lexrageorge]

He's had 4 decent starts, and then one horrible one. Let's not jump off the bridge just yet.

[aksoxfan]

I'd rather he never start again for the Red Sox.

[941827]

McAdam and Tim Britton are both reporting on Twitter that Matsuzaka has a neck/trapezius injury and couldn't throw his normal between-starts bullpen. He apparently convinced the team he was OK to start. Unless they wanted to start Zach Stewart tonight, their options were pretty limited, so I guess it was worth trotting DiceK out there to see what he could give them. The All-Star break cannot get here soon enough.

Edited by 941827, 03 July 2012 - 12:38 AM.

[AimingForYoko]

McAdam and Tim Britton are both reporting on Twitter that Matsuzaka has a neck/trapezius injury and couldn't throw his normal between-starts bullpen. He apparently convinced the team he was OK to start. Unless they wanted to start Zach Stewart tonight, their options were pretty limited, so I guess it was worth trotting DiceK out there to see what he could give them. The All-Star break cannot get here soon enough.

What? How? I mean...what?

[TomRicardo]

He showed tape of Zach Stewart pitching

[judyb]

McAdam and Tim Britton are both reporting on Twitter that Matsuzaka has a neck/trapezius injury and couldn't throw his normal between-starts bullpen. He apparently convinced the team he was OK to start. Unless they wanted to start Zach Stewart tonight, their options were pretty limited, so I guess it was worth trotting DiceK out there to see what he could give them. The All-Star break cannot get here soon enough.

How were their options so limited when they're already using a 6 man rotation?

[941827]

How were their options so limited when they're already using a 6 man rotation?

They need two starters for the upcoming doubleheader v the MFY. They could have moved everyone up a day (possibly on short notice - I am not sure when DiceK revealed his injury) and brought up cannon fodder for one of the NY doubleheader games, or kept everyone on their planned rest/rotation and hoped for the best tonight. The approach they took also means that they can do an empty-the-pen game the last game before the break rather than bringing up a lousy starter. Hardly ideal, but as usual there is a method to the madness.

Edited by 941827, 03 July 2012 - 01:29 AM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Or they could have started Mortensen, who ended up pitching 5 solid innings anyways. With the doubleheader vs the Yankees, they are allowed to add a 26th player anyways.

[TheoShmeo]

It was only one outing and perhaps he was indeed hurt. But when you add that to his first inning follies, when Buchholz returns, it's going to be tough to remove Morales and even Cook from the rotation and leave this guy in there.

If Felix continues to struggle he'll be a good candidate for a Hellenic Flu type DL stint. Still, with seven possible starters and no need for a 6-man rotation after the ASB, their patience may start to wane.

Then again, the clock may strike midnight on Morales or Cook, or one of the other starters may get injured. But without that....

Edited by TheoShmeo, 03 July 2012 - 07:53 AM.

[judyb]

They need two starters for the upcoming doubleheader v the MFY. They could have moved everyone up a day (possibly on short notice - I am not sure when DiceK revealed his injury) and brought up cannon fodder for one of the NY doubleheader games, or kept everyone on their planned rest/rotation and hoped for the best tonight. The approach they took also means that they can do an empty-the-pen game the last game before the break rather than bringing up a lousy starter. Hardly ideal, but as usual there is a method to the madness.

They have the 5th off, though. Someone else might want to check a calendar and my counting skills, but, if Lester goes last night, Morales and Cook start tonight and tomorrow, and they all get 4 days between starts. Beckett starts Friday with 5 days rest, then Lester and Doubront start the DH, Lester gets 4 days again, Doubront gets 5. and Morales starts the last game on 4. So, the guy who just got off the DL and the kid with the probable innings limit both still get their extra day, and then all of them get the ASB. Cook has to game plan NYY instead of OAK, but could have started preparing as soon as they found out Dice-K was hurt. So, I guess now I'm maybe concerned that it might be Lester they're trying so hard to give extra rest and avoiding that extra start before the break.

[lexrageorge]

First, I doubt that the team decided they had no better options than to start Dice-K. He probably went to them and told them he felt fine, and they may have felt that the injury was minor, but decided to skip the bullpen session as just a precaution. There's probably lots of "discomfort/ailments" that we don't hear about, and this could have initially been one of those.

Obviously, something affected Dice-K, given that only 4 of his pitches broke 90, and barely at that.

Also, it would have been difficult for any pitcher to get the W last night, given the once again pathetic outing by the underperforming lineup.

[86spike]

I'd like them to DL Matsuzaka for the neck issue and then get him on another rehab assignment. He clearly still needs to work on his mechanics and I'd rather not have him doing it in games that count.

We're this damn close to really being back to respectability. don't blow it on Daisuke and Boras.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

If they DL Matsuzaka today, he arguably could miss as little as one start, which should be an easy sell to get Daisuke to go along as they need to clear roster space for a position player since they're carrying 13 pitchers at the moment. He misses his scheduled start Sunday for which he's already a question mark with or without a DL trip, then with a 4-day all star break and six other starters available (assuming Buchholz is back), he can come off the DL to start on the 17th or 18th. In addition, they'd have the freedom to give him a rehab start or two if they want in order to extend the use of Morales and/or Cook in the rotation until nearer to the trade deadline, in case they want to try to move someone (like Cook).

No reason not to do this unless Matusuzaka woke up this morning completely pain/tightness free in his neck.

[Harry Hooper]

This neck/trapezius issue has been an ongoing concern during his rehab. Hard to imagine he can contribute much from here on, and there are other pitchers who look like better options.

[Pumpsie]

This neck/trapezius issue has been an ongoing concern during his rehab. Hard to imagine he can contribute much from here on, and there are other pitchers who look like better options.

Yup. DL him now. Absolutely NO reason to give him another start at this point. Good thing we held onto Aaron Cook, eh?

[Eric Van]

They have the 5th off, though. Someone else might want to check a calendar and my counting skills, but, if Lester goes last night, Morales and Cook start tonight and tomorrow, and they all get 4 days between starts. Beckett starts Friday with 5 days rest, then Lester and Doubront start the DH, Lester gets 4 days again, Doubront gets 5. and Morales starts the last game on 4. So, the guy who just got off the DL and the kid with the probable innings limit both still get their extra day, and then all of them get the ASB. Cook has to game plan NYY instead of OAK, but could have started preparing as soon as they found out Dice-K was hurt. So, I guess now I'm maybe concerned that it might be Lester they're trying so hard to give extra rest and avoiding that extra start before the break.

Yeah, that's all wrong, and appears to be based on inserting an extra day between Monday and Tuesday. Lester's going tonight, so his regular turn is Sunday. Morales is going tomorrow.

The original Yankee series was Cook (6) Beckett (5), Matsuzaka (4) and Doubront (5), Lester (4).

Now it's gotta be Cook (6), Doubront (5) and Beckett (5), Lester (4).

(MFY's will be going Kuroda, Garcia and Hughes, Nova.)

DL Matsuzaka today is a no-brainer. Unfortunately, Zack Stewart pitched last night and Justin Germano two days before. I think you use his roster spot for a fourth position player (Ciriaco or LaRoche; there's an open spot on the 40-man because of McDonald). Whether they also option Mortensen and recall Tazawa or Bard is another question. Ditto DL'ing WMB and recalling two position players (probably activating Podsednik, even if it's a bit premature).

[mauidano]

If they DL Matsuzaka today, he arguably could miss as little as one start, which should be an easy sell to get Daisuke to go along as they need to clear roster space for a position player since they're carrying 13 pitchers at the moment. He misses his scheduled start Sunday for which he's already a question mark with or without a DL trip, then with a 4-day all star break and six other starters available (assuming Buchholz is back), he can come off the DL to start on the 17th or 18th. In addition, they'd have the freedom to give him a rehab start or two if they want in order to extend the use of Morales and/or Cook in the rotation until nearer to the trade deadline, in case they want to try to move someone (like Cook). No reason not to do this unless Matusuzaka woke up this morning completely pain/tightness free in his neck.

But he would still be a pain in OUR neck (couldn't resist). DL him. i like the way you laid it out, makes sense.

[joyofsox]

Daisuke Matsuzaka back on DL to make room for Mauro Gomez.

http://twitter.com/n...257063916404736

[AimingForYoko]

Daisuke Matsuzaka back on DL to make room for Mauro Gomez.

http://twitter.com/n...257063916404736

But seriously, I don't know why he even pitched last night and I don't care anymore. I'm good with him never returning.

Edited by AimingForYoko, 03 July 2012 - 03:55 PM.

[TheoShmeo]

But seriously, I don't know why he even pitched last night and I don't care anymore. I'm good with him never returning.

It's hard to argue with that. Good riddance, perpetually Tumbling Dice.

But why Gomez? As a 1B, he's not going to get a lot of starts unless one of Adrian or Papi gets injured. I suppose with two piles of suck possibly getting regular playing time in place of WMB, they decided to bring someone up who isn't a catcher and can pinch hit.

[Cellar-Door]

Well at least Clayton Mortensen gets to stay up. Guy deserves it.

[Pumpsie]

It's hard to argue with that. Good riddance, perpetually Tumbling Dice.

But why Gomez? As a 1B, he's not going to get a lot of starts unless one of Adrian or Papi gets injured. I suppose with two piles of suck possibly getting regular playing time in place of WMB, they decided to bring someone up who isn't a catcher and can pinch hit.

Yeah, I think Bobby was getting tired of looking at his late-game pinch hit options and having to decide between Lillibridge and Punto.

[Harry Hooper]

It's hard to argue with that. Good riddance, perpetually Tumbling Dice.

But why Gomez? As a 1B, he's not going to get a lot of starts unless one of Adrian or Papi gets injured. I suppose with two piles of suck possibly getting regular playing time in place of WMB, they decided to bring someone up who isn't a catcher and can pinch hit.

Yes, to pich hit. I'm sure BobbyV enjoyed last night having Punto bat in the 7th with two men on and down 5 runs

Edited by Harry Hooper, 03 July 2012 - 04:03 PM.

[AimingForYoko]

It's hard to argue with that. Good riddance, perpetually Tumbling Dice.

But why Gomez? As a 1B, he's not going to get a lot of starts unless one of Adrian or Papi gets injured. I suppose with two piles of suck possibly getting regular playing time in place of WMB, they decided to bring someone up who isn't a catcher and can pinch hit.

Yup. What was it called last night? Liillibridge to nowhere?

[TheoShmeo]

Yes, to pich hit. I'm sure BobbyV enjoyed last night having Punto bat in the 7th with two men on and down 5 runs

Right. I had some vain hope that they would promote someone who could play 3B without making us wince or leave the room each time he picks up a bat.