50 replies to this topic

[Eric Van]

Prior to this month, Franklin Morales had thrown 35 or more pitches and recorded more than 66% strikes only twice in his career: in a start 9/16/07 against the Marlins (74 pitches, 67.6%) and one on 9/27/07 in LA (64 pitches, 68.8%).

Bobby V decided to stretch him out as a reliever, perhaps aware that Beckett was hurting, and/or perhaps because of some mechanical adjustment that had him throwing crazy strikes in the bullpen. (Or perhaps he just lucked into it when he needed him to go long the first time.)

6/3: 52 pitches, 69.2%
6/9: 36 pitches, 75.0%
6/17: 80 pitches, 81.3%,

That's 168 pitches, 76.2% strikes. I believe his previous high for 168 pitches in as many consecutive appearances as it takes is 64.4%, over his three starts between 9/16/07 and 9/27 mentioned above (he had 81 pitches, 58.0% in the intervening start).

This is not to say he this guarantees that he can keep throwing enough strikes to be one of our five best starters, but it's good to see that he's never done this before and then regressed. This is unprecedented command for a guy whose only weak point has been just that.

Very, very, interesting.

Edited by Eric Van, 19 June 2012 - 08:59 AM.

[xjack]

Based on what I've read, the Rockies doubted Morales could effectively repeat his delivery as a starter. That being said, I'd much rather have Morales as the 5th starter than Dice-K.

[pokey_reese]

I'm surprised at how far down I had to scroll on the main board to find this thread. No bump after 13 innings, 2 ER, 15 Ks since the last post?

[NDame616]

I'll play:

Chicago Cubs: worst team in baseball, 2nd worse offense in baseball
Atlanta Braves: Middle of the road NL team, middle of the road offense
Seattle Mariners: One of the worst teams and offenses in the AL

I'm not saying he can't start, but......

[Sprowl]

It does look like Morales has made a significant jump in command of his fastball, and also his changeup which has become a swing-and-miss pitch. The combination of the two has made him a much better pitcher against RHB as a starter than he was as a reliever.

Seattle's pitchfx data are not especially generous with velocity readings, putting Felix Hernandez' fastball at 92, so I'm inclined to think that Morales' 95 is the real thing. What is even more surprising is that he could sustain that velocity throughout 7 innings and 109 pitches without falling off at all.

[5dice]

I'll play:

Chicago Cubs: worst team in baseball, 2nd worse offense in baseball
Atlanta Braves: Middle of the road NL team, middle of the road offense
Seattle Mariners: One of the worst teams and offenses in the AL

I'm not saying he can't start, but......

So, if I understand your analysis correctly, against the iron of the league he is less likely to get through seven with a shutout intact.

[Eric Van]

So, if I understand your analysis correctly, against the iron of the league he is less likely to get through seven with a shutout intact.

I think he had a good point. Those teams have averaged just 4.08 RS/G versus an MLB average of 4.36. Morales' apparent 2.00 ERA, 0.89 FIP, and 2.13 SIERA as a starter are mirages; they are really 2.14, 0.95, and 2.28. Is that really going to cut it?

[bosockboy]

He really reminds me of Santana circa 2003 when he broke through. Eerily similar everything.....repertoire....both Venezuelan....both have exact same build; 6 ft, 210.

[mabrowndog]

Morales was obtained from Colorado on 5/19/2011 in exchange for a PTBNL or cash. However I can't find anything in the Sox' transaction logs or the previous Morales threads indicating what they sent to the Rockies to complete the deal.

Anyone else have any idea?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Morales was obtained from Colorado on 5/19/2011 in exchange for a PTBNL or cash. However I can't find anything in the Sox' transaction logs or the previous Morales threads indicating what they sent to the Rockies to complete the deal.

Anyone else have any idea?

According to Alex Speier just today, it was a straight cash deal, and the Sox paid low six figures.

[Rasputin]

Remember the days when the Yankees used to pull shit pitchers out of their ass who miraculously pitch like gods for two months?

Yeah, me neither.

[24JoshuaPoint]

Aaron freakin Small. The guy still haunts me.

(null)

[Al Zarilla]

Aaron freakin Small. The guy still haunts me.

(null)

How about Shawn Chacon, same year.

[24JoshuaPoint]

Thanks for the increased haunting. D*ck.

(null)

[dwainw]

Aaron freakin Small. The guy still haunts me.

How about Shawn Chacon, same year.

So does the fact that in their haste to sign on the dotted line, these guys actually secured their reservations in a little place called HELL offer you guys any sort of comfort?

[Eric Van]

Remember the days when the Yankees used to pull shit pitchers out of their ass who miraculously pitch like gods for two months?

Yeah, me neither.

I kind of missed the part where there was a significant debate as to whether Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon were better prospects than Clayton Kershaw and were generally considered as better than David Price.

If you excised everything that happened with Morales between the end of 2007 and this month, not only wouldn't anyone bat an eyelash, a lot of folks would feel pretty good about their ability to judge talent. Even after getting annihilated by the Sox in the WS, he was ranked as the consensus 4th best pitching prospect in baseball (and 8th overall), with individual BA editors having him anywhere from 2nd to 5th.

[Rasputin]

I kind of missed the part where there was a significant debate as to whether Aaron Small and Shawn Chacon were better prospects than Clayton Kershaw and were generally considered as better than David Price.

If you excised everything that happened with Morales between the end of 2007 and this month, not only wouldn't anyone bat an eyelash, a lot of folks would feel pretty good about their ability to judge talent. Even after getting annihilated by the Sox in the WS, he was ranked as the consensus 4th best pitching prospect in baseball (and 8th overall), with individual BA editors having him anywhere from 2nd to 5th.

While you may be forgiven for not understanding--it is, after all, the Morales thread--I was recently reminded that we just saw a guy throw 73 sinkers and 8 curveballs and not get a single swing-and-miss, and throw a 2-hit shutout where both guys were erased on double plays.

[Eric Van]

While you may be forgiven for not understanding

I watched the Morales game yesterday afternoon and the Cook game last night without checking the main board in between, so I assumed your post was a day old. Not to mention on-topic. (I think I did a better job of finding a thread in which to comment on that than you did ...)

I'm actually wondering whether they should trade Cook essentially right now, to some team that thinks he'll not only have that sinker nearly every time out, but rarely run into XBH trouble when he leaves it up in the zone. They don't need him again, despite the doubleheader next Saturday (because of the off day next Thursday). The question is whether you trust the current organizational depth if they need a seventh starter, and if you don't, how you make room for Cook on the 25-man. I don't think the latter is possible, and once Bailey is back, I think if you need to go 7 deep in the rotation for more than a start or two, you stretch out Aceves or Padilla.

Speaking of on-topic, according to today's Globe, Morales as a starter is both something Bobby V was interested in as far back as ST, and something Morales himself lobbied for. I think BV gets some real credit here.

[TomRicardo]

Thanks for the increased haunting. D*ck.

(null)

Have you flown recently? Cory Lidle comes to mind.

[mfried]

I watched the Morales game yesterday afternoon and the Cook game last night without checking the main board in between, so I assumed your post was a day old. Not to mention on-topic. (I think I did a better job of finding a thread in which to comment on that than you did ...)

I'm actually wondering whether they should trade Cook essentially right now, to some team that thinks he'll not only have that sinker nearly every time out, but rarely run into XBH trouble when he leaves it up in the zone. They don't need him again, despite the doubleheader next Saturday (because of the off day next Thursday). The question is whether you trust the current organizational depth if they need a seventh starter, and if you don't, how you make room for Cook on the 25-man. I don't think the latter is possible, and once Bailey is back, I think if you need to go 7 deep in the rotation for more than a start or two, you stretch out Aceves or Padilla.

Speaking of on-topic, according to today's Globe, Morales as a starter is both something Bobby V was interested in as far back as ST, and something Morales himself lobbied for. I think BV gets some real credit here.

I like the idea of trading Cook, Sweeney (when recovered) and Bard for Garza - but trading Cook on principle seems a bit rash unless something good is coming back.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I like the idea of trading Cook, Sweeney (when recovered) and Bard for Garza - but trading Cook on principle seems a bit rash unless something good is coming back.

I suspect the Cubs would want the Sox to add in Punto or McDonald to sweeten the pot.

[knucklecup]

I like the idea of trading Cook, Sweeney (when recovered) and Bard for Garza - but trading Cook on principle seems a bit rash unless something good is coming back.

The Cubs are rumored to be wanting a Ubaldo Jimenez type package for Garza. Not an over the hill loser that miraculously shut down one of the more pathetic offenses in the game.

[TomRicardo]

I suspect the Cubs would want the Sox to add in Punto or McDonald to sweeten the pot.

Awesome.

The Cubs want no part of Cook. He does nothing for them. Sweeney also isn't high on their wish list. Kalish and Bard plus pieces is where that conversation begins.

Edited by TomRicardo, 30 June 2012 - 11:47 AM.

[Eric Van]

I like the idea of trading Cook, Sweeney (when recovered) and Bard for Garza - but trading Cook on principle seems a bit rash unless something good is coming back.

There's no evidence whatsoever that Matt Garza is an upgrade to the current rotation. The guy has a 94 FIP- and 93 ERA- the last three years, and you can add 4 points minimum for having spent time in the weakest division in baseball (it might be 6). I honestly believe we have six guys better than him.

You trade Cook for the best available prospect, and you're happy if you can get any kind of B prospect. You are talking about a half-season rental of a solid #4 starter. That's not a lot of value, and the only reason you hope to get more is if you can get teams desperate for competent starting pitching bidding against each other.

[NDame616]

while yesterday's results speak for themselves and there's no point in diving into them, I thought I'd point out that Morales has now pitched the same number of innings (46.1) as he has thrown in his career.

So, his next start he will have thrown more innings than he has in any season in his career

[seantoo]

while yesterday's results speak for themselves and there's no point in diving into them, I thought I'd point out that Morales has now pitched the same number of innings (46.1) as he has thrown in his career.

So, his next start he will have thrown more innings than he has in any season in his career

But that's not true. It's the most he's pitched exclusively in MLB in one season however he's pitched in both MilB and MLB most years of his career so you have to add the 2 together to assess his workload. His combined IP (MLB and MiLB) starting from this year going back is 52, 76, 70, 150, 137 & 193.

[Sprowl]

Morales has a historical platoon split, flyball tendency, and fastball command problem. The big surprise for Morales as a 2012 starter has been his success at keeping the fastball on the edges of the strike zone and using the changeup to get swinging strikes from RHB. Yesterday he reverted to the Morales who pitched his way out of Coors Field and into the bullpen. On a hot summer afternoon the ball was jumping out of Fenway, the Yankee lineup was packed with righties, and 4 home runs off of grooved fastballs resulted. Morales' location wasn't really that bad, but when he missed his spot with the 2-seamer, he got pounded. These are Morales' results for each at-bat by a right-handed hitter:



Only one of the home runs came on a 4-seam fastball. Why was Morales throwing any 2-seamers at all to right-handed power hitters, I don't know. The sinker is usually reserved for a same-handed hitter, and this game shows why. Do we blame Morales, Salty, McClure, Niemann or somebody else for that awful decision?

Bottom line: Morales should continue to get starts. This loss showed the weaknesses we always knew he had, but it was made worse by the weather, the opposition, and the pitch selection.

[Corsi]

Franklin Morales is headed back to the bullpen RT @JuniorPepen: Oficialmente Franklin Morales fue bajado al Bullpen.

https://twitter.com/...313234880692224

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Za?

(null)

[czar]

Strongly dislike this move.

Morales has better peripherals as a starter than Cook and Doubront and easily has the most upside of the three. Morales is more flexible as a SP/RP than Cook and debatably so relative to Doubront, but Doubront is almost certainly on an innings limit and has trended downward over the last couple months.

In the event you move Morales back to a short-inning role, you could end up with the unenviable situation of restretching him (barring trade) if 2 of A) Cook's magic wears off B) Doubront gets shut down with an innings limit C) they give up on Dice-K.

Seems suboptimal -- shifting Doubront to relief (or even optioning to Pawtucket for short starts) seems like a better choice, IMO.

[SMU_Sox]

Completely agree with Czar. My only guess is that maybe this is due to an IP concern with Morales. They don't think he can last more than another month as a starter so therefore make him a longman or bullpen ace and use him for the rest of the year that way.

[Savin Hillbilly]

This makes it almost inevitable that we'll be trading for a starter, doesn't it? Unless they really, really like what they're seeing/hearing on the Dice-K front.

[bosockboy]

Yes I think this definitely means they acquire a #4 starter; just surprised it's not Doubront heading to the pen.

[mfried]

https://twitter.com/...313234880692224

This is a shocker. Can't help but think that Cook's success yesterday played an overly decisive role in the team thinking, but even if we look ahead to Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Dice-K, we will need a fifth starter and I assume that he is lined up and his name is Dempster. (I assume we're looking ahead to Dice replacing Dubront in the rotation before very long.) in this scenario Morales is the backup when the inevitable injury happens and can stay fresher,for longer if he goes to th bullpen. Sadly he looks considerably better as a starter than as a reliever.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I wondered why Morales was in the pen last night sitting next to Aceves, but this explains it.

I don't think it's necessarily indicative of anything on the trade front, however. They couldn't continue to use the 6-man rotation, and someone had to go to the bullpen eventually. And it's not as though they couldn't stretch him back out if the need arose.

[MalzoneExpress]

Maybe I'm missing something, but I never thought that a six man rotation was a viable long term option. There are six starters for five slots. If we assume someone had to go to the pen, Morales was the choice. Cook and Doubront have only started this year, Morales has shown that he can be an effective reliever this year and he may need to have his innings limited. If/when Doubront needs to have his innings limited, they'll take look at options then and make a decision. It could be Dice-K if he is healthy or it could be Aceves if Bailey comes back and claims the closer role. I don't think this move means that a trade for a starter is pending. But I have been wrong before.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

If Morales is done for the year.... as a starter... I hope that they seriously consider transitioning him fulltime to the rotation in the offseason. I think a guy who can throw 97mph from the left side and has fairly nasty secondary stuff could be useful as a starter for the forseeable future. Morales is young enough and showed enough that he should go into the Offseason working towards being a starter. He's wasted as a Loogy, especially with Miller looking more and more like one (albeit a decent one).

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 17 July 2012 - 03:59 PM.

[Manramsclan]

I think that they will seriously consider transitioning him fulltime to the rotation this offseason.

To me, all this shows is that the Sox understand his long-term value.

As has been noted above, stretching him beyond the 80 or so innings he's on pace to pitch this year is a bad idea since he hasn't thrown more than that in a season since 2008 when he threw 136 innings between AAA and MLB. (There are some minor discrepancies between mine and Seantoo's numbers. I got mine here.)

[gammoseditor]

I wouldn't rule out Cook being traded at the deadline to a team looking for a fifth starter and Morales going back to the starting rotation. They're better off waiting in case of an injury, like many people wanted them to do with Youkilis.

[Super Nomario]

Andrew Miller is the only lefty in the bullpen right now, so shifting Morales makes sense. And given that they already stretched him out on the fly once this season, I don't see why they couldn't do it again if someone gets hurt or Doubront hits an innings limit or something.

[Corsi]

Franklin Morales confirmed he is going to bullpen for the time being

https://twitter.com/...339359166078977

[Corsi]

I think that they will seriously consider transitioning him fulltime to the rotation this offseason.

To me, all this shows is that the Sox understand his long-term value.

Yep.

Pitching coach Bob McClure on Morales-to-pen: "It's a hard decision. He wants to start. He's 26, and we think he's got a future in it."

https://twitter.com/...346072007032832

[PedroSpecialK]

Interesting - I guess that makes next year's rotation:

Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Morales
Lackey

Still hoping for no Dempster. Finish the year with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Cook, Doubront/Matsuzaka/Morales when needed/Lackey in September ( ) .

Edited by PedroSpecialK, 17 July 2012 - 05:10 PM.

[bloodysox]

Interesting - I guess that makes next year's rotation:

Beckett
Lester
Buchholz
Morales
Lackey

Still hoping for no Dempster. Finish the year with Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Cook, Doubront/Matsuzaka/Morales when needed/Lackey in September ( ) .

Why would we not have Doubront in the 2013 rotation? I think he has earned a spot as the #5 starter.

Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Lackey
Doubront

[PedroSpecialK]

Yeah, brain fart on my part. If they're serious about converting Morales, that's 6 starters, which I imagine would work itself out in spring training/over the course of the year. Probably stretch Morales out in the spring and give him a couple of exhibition starts just to have him available when someone goes down.

[bloodysox]

Yeah, brain fart on my part. If they're serious about converting Morales, that's 6 starters, which I imagine would work itself out in spring training/over the course of the year. Probably stretch Morales out in the spring and give him a couple of exhibition starts just to have him available when someone goes down.

That makes sense to me. With the amount of injuries we always have, having Morales as a #6 starter would be fantastic. In the past we've had a big problem with SP depth, but that problem seems to be solved going foreward.

[TheoShmeo]

Yep, the Sox have a legitimate concern about Morales' innings count, Jon Lester has an impressive body of work over his career and at one time was a bona fide top of the rotation guy, one bad start is just one bad start, Lester gets paid a lot and Morales has only made a few starts for the Red Sox.

But why exactly is Lester ahead of Morales on the starter depth chart? Asked differently, does Lester really give them a better chance to win games than Morales? Lester hasn't been very good at that since last August.

[czar]

Why would we not have Doubront in the 2013 rotation? I think he has earned a spot as the #5 starter.

Lester
Beckett
Buchholz
Lackey
Doubront

I wouldn't get so excited about penciling Doubront in -- guy has never put up good minor league numbers, had a great April/May, and has been mediocre since (walk rate way up, strikeout rate down a bit).

Doubront very well could be a cheap #4/5, but it's putting the cart before the horse if you are assuming he's in the 2013 rotation already.

[LeoCarrillo]

Tweet from RotoWorld:

Franklin Morales is headed back to the bullpen RT @JuniorPepen: Oficialmente Franklin Morales fue bajado al Bullpen.

[StuckOnYouk]

If Beckett pitches OK the rest of the year maybe he's moved in the offseason. Then Morales has a spot.