52 replies to this topic

[PrometheusWakefield]

All reports are that the Red Sox and Dodgers are the leading contenders for Ryan Dempster. What says SOSH?

Dempster is an interesting example of a pitcher whose ERA has bounced around a lot over the past 5 years (2.96, 3.65, 3.85, 4.80, 2.11) while his xFIP has held rock steady (3.69, 3.76, 3.74, 3.70, 3.68) as has his SIERA. His sparkly ERA this year seems to be driven by unsustainable improvements in his strand rate (83.1%) and his HR/FB rate (7.5%, down from 11% over the past 3 years). FWIW, he has also dropped about a mph on his fastball, and made up for it by throwing the slider - his most effective pitch - more often. He's 34, and in his final year of a 4 year contract worth $12 million this year. It seems to me the questions are:

1) Do we have to pay for his unsustainable 2.11 ERA or is everyone involved (e.g. the Dodgers) understanding that this is really a ~3.70 SIERA-in-NL-Central player?
2) Which prospects does Theo want back?
3) How much more is the acquisition cost for Garza, who is younger, has better stuff, better peripherals, and is controlled for 2013?

[Adrian's Dome]

Do we really even need him? As it stands Beckett should be back in a reasonable amount of time, Morales has looked acceptable in short outings, and Dice hasn't been terrible either. Are they jettisoning Dice in favor of Dempster? I don't think I'd be a fan of that given the cost of prospects.

[glennhoffmania]

I guess I'll repost my question from the Beckett thread here:

I'm trying to understand why Dempster is even being considered. Unless they have injury concerns that are more serious than we know about (ie., Beckett's shoulder), the rotation could be a combination of Beckett, Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Dice-K, Bard, Morales, and possibly Aceves if Bard goes back to the pen and/or Melancon and Bailey can take over the late innings. How does Dempster upgrade this rotation enough to make it worth giving up anything of value?

[bosockboy]

I think after last year they will never get burned on starting pitching depth again. I think they are buying and selling....and view Matsuzaka as a placeholder until they get a more consistent, durable option.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Per Paul Sullvan of the Chicago Tribune:

Dempster on DL with right lat tightness. Main up. Soto up, Castillo down.

That ought to cool the Dempster trade talks for a bit.

[Toe Nash]

That actually couldn't be better timing. Assuming he misses the minimum or slightly more, we'll have a much better idea in 2-3 weeks whether we need him or not, and he can't get traded to the Dodgers in the meantime.

[mabrowndog]

That actually couldn't be better timing. Assuming he misses the minimum or slightly more, we'll have a much better idea in 2-3 weeks whether we need him or not, and he can't get traded to the Dodgers in the meantime.

It also substantially lowers his value. Even if he comes back healthy, the 2 weeks of idle time plus another 1-2 weeks of vetting his performance is production the acquiring team won't be getting.

[bosockboy]

It also substantially lowers his value. Even if he comes back healthy, the 2 weeks of idle time plus another 1-2 weeks of vetting his performance is production the acquiring team won't be getting.

I would think the Cubs would counter that by claiming he had received a nice mid-season rest on his arm......

I might be a bit conspiratorial here, but this DL trip seems fishy. I wonder if they are pulling him down to preserve his health before dealing him.

[Dogman2]

I would think the Cubs would counter that by claiming he had received a nice mid-season rest on his arm......

I might be a bit conspiratorial here, but this DL trip seems fishy. I wonder if they are pulling him down to preserve his health before dealing him.

I think this is precisely what the Cubs are doing. His 2 week vacation ends just before the All Star Break and the rest all but ensures he isn't injured before the deadline. The Cubs are cleaning house and Dempster is a large, tradeable asset. My guess is he doesn't pitch again until after the break and then he only gets 2-3 starts before being traded.

Edited by Dogman2, 18 June 2012 - 03:58 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I've really soured on the idea of trading for Dempster. PW covers why pretty well above. Beyond that, though, how much of an improvement is he likely to be over Matsuzaka and/or Doubront? The only reason I can see the team needing to trade for a starter is if Beckett's shoulder is worse than initially reported. Otherwise, the most they should be looking to do with the rotation is a Bedard style trade so they can replace Doubront when he reaches his limit or his arm tires.

Dempster is going to be too expensive to justify considering what this team actually needs. I'm not nearly as high as some on Morales being able to sustain any kind of consistent effectiveness as a starter, even though he looked great last night. He's always been a guy with great stuff who looks great in short bursts from time to time. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle, but he has a long way to go before I'm going to be comfortable with him starting games. But at least he gave the team a one good start during Beckett's absence and has the potential to have another good night his next time out. He seems like a better option than Andrew Miller at any rate, so the team shouldn't feel rushed into making a move.

Hopefully the Dodgers overpay for Dempster and keep the Sox from expending valuable resources on a guy who isn't likely to be anywhere near as effective in the AL East.

[bosockboy]

I wonder if their interest in Dempster is also clubhouse related....he played under Henry in Florida and is generally known as an outstanding clubhouse guy. With the reported clubhouse angst he might be seen as a guy, while eating league average innings, who could make Beckett happy again and lighten things up around there. Probably way off here, but a thought.

[OttoC]

He's 35-years-old and is making $14M this year. Lars Anderson and Chicago picks up a considerable portion of his salary?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He's 35-years-old and is making $14M this year. Lars Anderson and Chicago picks up a considerable portion of his salary?

I'd be fine with that (as I'm sure everyone here would be) but there's no way Theo takes that. He was willing to deal Lars for Rich Hill last year and pulled him back when it was apparent that he was even more damaged goods than everyone already suspected. Theo set that value, so as a seller in his first year in Chicago is there any reason to think he's be happy to drop a guy with some perceived value for that return? I mean, he's already got Rizzo in the minors so unless he's going to play Lars in left (where he's terrible defensively), I don't see a match there.

Maybe you're being sarcastic and I'm being dense, though.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'd be fine with that (as I'm sure everyone here would be) but there's no way Theo takes that. He was willing to deal Lars for Rich Hill last year and pulled him back when it was apparent that he was even more damaged goods than everyone already suspected. Theo set that value, so as a seller in his first year in Chicago is there any reason to think he's be happy to drop a guy with some perceived value for that return? I mean, he's already got Rizzo in the minors so unless he's going to play Lars in left (where he's terrible defensively), I don't see a match there.

Maybe you're being sarcastic and I'm being dense, though.

IIRC, it was Anderson and a prospect (whose name escapes me) for Rich Harden. When Harden's medicals came back negative, Theo was still willing to do Anderson for Harden, the A's resisted. Dempster is a much better pitcher than Harden, though.

Dempster represents a huge upgrade from Matsuzaka, IMO...and the latter can certainly be moved despite a no-trade (especially if a trade for another starter would bump him down to the pen).

I'm wondering what the Sox future is for Bard and could see him being moved in some kind of deal (and surely winning 18 next year for whoever gets him).

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think you're right. It was Lars and a PTBNL but it fell through when the medicals came back and Theo cut the offer back to just Lars. And yes, Dempster is a much better value than Harden was last year.

As for Bard, I'd like to see the team hold onto him, but wouldn't shed any tears if he gets moved to a team that thinks they can fix him. The problem with that scenario is that they'd be shipping him out while his value is at an all time low.

I'm not a fan of the idea of moving Matsuzaka unless the team feels they're not a contender and are giving up on the season. Having Daisuke available for the stretch run, even if they trade for another starter, they'll need to replace Doubront at some point anyway.

[OttoC]

...
Maybe you're being sarcastic...

Not sure why you think that might have been sarcasm, but I will add that I'm not a big fan of picking up 35-year-olds except for little outgoing cost.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Not sure why you think that might have been sarcasm, but I will add that I'm not a big fan of picking up 35-year-olds except for little outgoing cost.

I just don't see Lars as a realistic offer for Dempster and cash. I agree that I wouldn't want to see them send much in the way of value to Chicago for Dempster, for the same reason you don't... but I see no reason to expect Theo to take an offer like that seriously.

[C4CRVT]

I hate the idea of trading for a SP for this team- at least at this venture. I'd think that a few guys have to come back and prove that they're healthy before the FO throws away valuable assets for a lost year. Lars would make some pretty nice AG insurance if he needs some time on the DL.

I'd wait at least a month to see what we have. If it's too late to get Dempster, I'm ok with that, I think.

[mabrowndog]

I just don't see Lars as a realistic offer for Dempster and cash. I agree that I wouldn't want to see them send much in the way of value to Chicago for Dempster, for the same reason you don't... but I see no reason to expect Theo to take an offer like that seriously.

I don't necessarily disagree, but Lars is back to mashing balls and avoiding outs. His season line is a solid .271/.393/.487/.880, but over the past 19 games he's put up a .358/.469/.701/1.171 line with 6 HR.

He's going to be traded someplace while his stock is high, of that I'm virtually certain.

[Otis Foster]

Why in the world would the Cubs want Lars? They have Rizzo. He's putting up a 1.170/23 hr line for the Iowa Cubs and the Chicago papers refer to him as the Cubs' top prospect.

(I get a little queasy just writing this.)

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He had a crappy season last year. His hit rate this year is way, way below his usual norms: 6.7 versus rates of 8.3, 8.8, and 9.4 each of the previous three years. He gives every indication of having a fluky good season so far and will likely regress in a big way and that right soon. And if he moves to the AL East he'd regress even further.

No thanks. This would end very poorly.

[TheoShmeo]

I hope I'm wrong but Lars in his very small sample size in the majors has looked like a 4A guy to me. He's never done much at the plate in Boston and even his AAA numbers have never been eye popping. I would like to think that some GM will one day take a flier on him but I'll be pleasantly surprised if the Sox get much value in return. I agree with Otis that Wrigley seems unlikely given Rizzo's presence.

http://www.baseball-...anderla03.shtml

[TomRicardo]

Rather go for Garza. I would more Bard for Garza

[The Gray Eagle]

I'd rather see Morales keep starting than give up useful pieces for a 35-year-old from the NL Central.

Morales is young, has upside, we already have him, he can slide back to the bullpen when needed, could be here next season for cheap, is lefthanded, and has been solid in the AL East. Dempster offers none of those things. I'd rather keep our assets and gamble on the guys we already control than give up pieces for Dempster.

Even if Morales starts getting shelled as a starter, which is a real possibility, it's a better gamble than trading parts for an old guy who probably won't adjust well here. After Beckett's back, we'll have 6 starters anyway, who else would get bumped for Dempster, Doubront or Matsuzaka? So we'd need to give up assets, move Morales back to the pen, get Doubront or Matsuzaka out of the rotation and add salary, all for Dempster? Not worth it.

Mortenson should go back to AAA and get stretched out as a starter to give us a little more depth there. Otherwise, we should roll with what we have.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Sox give: Youks, Bard, $, britton
Dodgers give: 1 top prospect, 1 mid level, low ceiling/floor prospect, 1 low level lottery ticket
Cubs give: Garza, Dempster

Sox get : Garza, lottery ticket
Dodgers get: Youks, Dempster, $
Cubs get: Bard, Britton, dodger top and mid prospect

I'm Not familiar enough with Dodgers Farm to suggest specific prospects.

(null)

Edited by Papelbon's Poutine, 19 June 2012 - 03:24 PM.

[RingoOSU]

Why do the dodgers give up their top prospect for 2 rentals?

[maufman]

Interesting idea, PP, except I'm pretty sure the Cubs and Dodgers would prefer a simple two-way deal where Garza goes to LA for three prospects.

[maufman]

Why in the world would the Cubs want Lars? They have Rizzo. He's putting up a 1.170/23 hr line for the Iowa Cubs and the Chicago papers refer to him as the Cubs' top prospect.

(I get a little queasy just writing this.)

Sometimes, you just accumulate assets. If Dempster's DL stint makes his value as a rental marginal, and if Theo thinks Lars still has a chance to become the player we thought he was going to become three years ago, then Dempster for Lars/Youk makes sense.

Theo will happily deal from the surplus if Lars and Rizzo are both ready for The Show. The Cubs could also use a stopgap option at 3B for 2013, so Youk's option might have value to them, and including him in a deal with Dempster makes it close to a wash for the Sox on luxury tax.

Dempster isn't going anywhere until he proves his health, so there's time to see how the various question marks in the Sox' rotation work out. If Dempster is available at low cost, I suspect they'll have a place for him.

Edited by maufman, 19 June 2012 - 04:10 PM.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Sox give: Youks, Bard, $, britton
Dodgers give: 1 top prospect, 1 mid level, low ceiling/floor prospect, 1 low level lottery ticket
Cubs give: Garza, Dempster

Sox get : Garza, lottery ticket
Dodgers get: Youks, Dempster, $
Cubs get: Bard, Britton, dodger top and mid prospect

I'm Not familiar enough with Dodgers Farm to suggest specific prospects.

(null)

Not enough to the Cubs but interesting idea.

[Pumpsie]

Not enough to the Cubs but interesting idea.

Not enough to the Cubs but interesting idea.

Not enough to the Dodgers either.

[OttoC]

And the Red Sox give up too much by far.

[SoxFanPJ]

The Sox have so much money tied up that I think we need to keep any high end prospects we have. We need some minimum salary players on the roster in the next few years.

Trading of redundant pieces like Lars is fine but we need to be careful before trading talent for a rental or for a player you will need to sign to a big money extension like Garza.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Not enough to the Cubs but interesting idea.

Not enough to the Dodgers either.

And the Red Sox give up too much by far.

I'm just an English major but I don't think all three of you can be right.

[Pumpsie]

I'm just an English major but I don't think all three of you can be right.

It's more of a math problem.

I suppose that with some tweaking a three-way amongst these teams could work. But I think that the Dodgers would much rather give up the same prospects (or even a slightly better array of prospects) for Garza and throw the Sox a bone for Youkilis. That would be MUCH better for them.

[Eric Van]

This entire conversation is a bit surreal.

Here are all the Demspter and Dice-K starting seasons, ranked by FIP-, after a decidedly conservative adjustment for NL Central vs. AL East, and ignoring the fact that Dice-K's career ERA- = FIP-, while Dempster's career ERA- is 4 points higher than his FIP-. If you wanted to add another 2 to 4 points to all the Dempster numbers below, you'd be perfectly justified.

81 Dempster '08
84 Dice-K '12
87 Dempster '12
90 Dice-K '08
92 Dice-K '07
93 Dice-K '10
94 Dempster '09
102 Dempster '10
104 Dempster '11
110 Dice-K '09
117 Dice-K '11

There's zero reason to believe that this guy is better than the guy he'd be replacing, and that's ignoring the fact that Morales and Bard want Dice-K's job and maybe have the talent to take it.

Edit: Garza's last 5 seasons, with the same adjustment, and you maybe want to subtract a point or two from '08 - '10: 98, 99, 111, 80, 107. He's not better than a healthy Dice-K, either.

Edited by Eric Van, 19 June 2012 - 11:44 PM.

[OCD SS]

Sometimes, you just accumulate assets. If Dempster's DL stint makes his value as a rental marginal, and if Theo thinks Lars has been bitten by a radioactive Bryce Harper and is on the verge of harnessing his new superpowers, then Dempster for Lars/Youk makes sense.

Theo will happily deal from the surplus if Lars and Rizzo are both ready for The Show. The Cubs could also use a stopgap option at 3B for 2013, so Youk's option might have value to them, and including him in a deal with Dempster makes it close to a wash for the Sox on luxury tax.

Theo would happily deal from the surplus if he already had both players, but it's a different thing entirely to expect him to give up one of his prime trade chips to create that surplus.

[TomRicardo]

I do Bard and Iglesias for Garza

[67YAZ]

If you're going to deal with the Cubs, then you should probably recognize their clear organizational need for depth in pitching prospects, which was clearly elected in their draft. What do the Cubs want with he Sox' flawed SS prospect when they have Starlin Castro under team control for several more years? Not that they would turn down a good deal for a high impact bat or any deal to offload Soriano, but the clear preference is for pitching.

I imagine the haul for Dempster is more like a high-minors, high-k-rate reliever and a low-minors lottery ticket starter. That's more in line with the Cubs needs.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I guess that depends on whether there is any truth to the rumors that the Cubs are looking to cash in on Castro or not. If they've decided he's worth more to them as a trade chip than their future SS (for what ever reason) then Iglesias makes more sense. Plus, he was a Theo signing, so he may have more value to him than he would to another GM.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 20 June 2012 - 08:35 AM.

[TomRicardo]

If you're going to deal with the Cubs, then you should probably recognize their clear organizational need for depth in pitching prospects, which was clearly elected in their draft. What do the Cubs want with he Sox' flawed SS prospect when they have Starlin Castro under team control for several more years? Not that they would turn down a good deal for a high impact bat or any deal to offload Soriano, but the clear preference is for pitching.

I imagine the haul for Dempster is more like a high-minors, high-k-rate reliever and a low-minors lottery ticket starter. That's more in line with the Cubs needs.

Theo wants to dump Castro for prospects. Castro is an impatient hitter who is an extremely uneven defender. We saw him give the Red Sox the game Sunday. Some GMs will see the.300 average, the occasional flashy play, and AS appearance and go after him.

I think Bard could start in the NL. The Cubs would have far more time to develop him.

[TomRicardo]

Tazawa could also start in the NL. Wilson probably couldn't.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Tazawa is an interesting asset. I think he could start in the AL, just not for the Sox and he appears to be a really good option as a bullpen arm. Honestly, I would prefer he stick around as a long reliever/spot starter for this team than to use him in a trade unless it was as part of a package for a cost controlled young pitcher with good upside, but I likely value him more than most. If you can get Garza for something like Bard, Iglesias and Tazawa, I think you have to say yes.

[PrometheusWakefield]

81 Dempster '08
84 Dice-K '12
87 Dempster '12
90 Dice-K '08
92 Dice-K '07
93 Dice-K '10
94 Dempster '09
102 Dempster '10
104 Dempster '11
110 Dice-K '09
117 Dice-K '11

There's zero reason to believe that this guy is better than the guy he'd be replacing, and that's ignoring the fact that Morales and Bard want Dice-K's job and maybe have the talent to take it.

Edit: Garza's last 5 seasons, with the same adjustment, and you maybe want to subtract a point or two from '08 - '10: 98, 99, 111, 80, 107. He's not better than a healthy Dice-K, either.

Yeah, but here's what that list looks like if you go by WAR rather than FIP:

5.2 Dempster '08
4.4 Dempster '12 (proj)
3.9 Dice-K '07
3.7 Dempster '09
3.4 Dempster '10
3.3 Dice-K '08
2.8 Dempster '11
2.6 Dice-K '10
0.6 Dice-K '09
0.4 Dice-K '12 (proj)
0.2 Dice-K '11


FIP understates Dempsters strengths relative to Dice-K - consistency, durability, IP/GS. If you're confident that Dice-K is going to be the pitcher that he was in 2007 and 008, it clearly makes no sense to trade for Dempster, but those seasons seem like they are increasingly in the rear view mirror. Lets not draw too many conclusions from Dice-K's reasonably effective 11 innings this year. I mean I'm reasonably confident that we can rely on him to throw 11 more effective innings in 2012, but in what order and whether there will be more of them is unclear.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 20 June 2012 - 09:43 AM.

[Eric Van]

Yeah, but here's what that list looks like if you go by WAR rather than FIP:

FIP understates Dempsters strengths relative to Dice-K - consistency, durability, IP/GS. If you're confident that Dice-K is going to be the pitcher that he was in 2007 and 008, it clearly makes no sense to trade for Dempster, but those seasons seem like they are increasingly in the rear view mirror. Lets not draw too many conclusions from Dice-K's reasonably effective 11 innings this year. I mean I'm reasonably confident that we can rely on him to throw 11 more effective innings in 2012, but in what order and whether there will be more of them is unclear.

Dempster has averaged precisely one out more per start than Dice-K (6.2 vs. 5.9 IP), and he'll lose at least that much moving from the worst to the best division in baseball. That's not even an advantage.

So it comes down to who's more likely to get injured the rest of this year ... the frequently injured guy who has just spent a year rehabbing from TJ, or the guy who hasn't been hurt who has been racking up the miles on his arm. Personally, I'll take the former as less likely than the latter. Swapping out the probably better pitcher for the inferior one because you have the opposite fear seems completely irrational.

And besides, Franklin Morales is going to get a few weeks to demonstrate that he deserves the job. And if both he and Dice-K struggle, another guy who projected to be significantly better than Dempster or Garza is trying to get his act together in Pawtucket.

You trade valuable assets for a 5th starter when your own are crap. You don't do it when you have three guys with various odds of being better than your trade targets.

And it's probably more than three. Does anyone doubt that they could covert Padilla or Aceves to the rotation and get at least the the same sort of high 90's FIP-? And since they are faced with ultimately squeezing Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Padilla, and Atchison into just five RHR slots (probabably), that's not a greatly unlikely scenario, either.

They have internal options as good or better as Dempster or Garza coming out of their ears. The entire fascination with these guys is based on the thought that they're great pitchers, based on Garza's fluke '11 and Dempster's fluke first half of this year, and pointedly ignoring the huge difference in competitive environment. But they're not great pitchers, and not better than any of as many as five guys we've already got.

[C4CRVT]

Dempster has averaged precisely one out more per start than Dice-K (6.2 vs. 5.9 IP), and he'll lose at least that much moving from the worst to the best division in baseball. That's not even an advantage.

So it comes down to who's more likely to get injured the rest of this year ... the frequently injured guy who has just spent a year rehabbing from TJ, or the guy who hasn't been hurt who has been racking up the miles on his arm. Personally, I'll take the former as less likely than the latter. Swapping out the probably better pitcher for the inferior one because you have the opposite fear seems completely irrational.

And besides, Franklin Morales is going to get a few weeks to demonstrate that he deserves the job. And if both he and Dice-K struggle, another guy who projected to be significantly better than Dempster or Garza is trying to get his act together in Pawtucket.

You trade valuable assets for a 5th starter when your own are crap. You don't do it when you have three guys with various odds of being better than your trade targets.

And it's probably more than three. Does anyone doubt that they could covert Padilla or Aceves to the rotation and get at least the the same sort of high 90's FIP-? And since they are faced with ultimately squeezing Bailey, Bard, Aceves, Melancon, Padilla, and Atchison into just five RHR slots (probabably), that's not a greatly unlikely scenario, either.

They have internal options as good or better as Dempster or Garza coming out of their ears. The entire fascination with these guys is based on the thought that they're great pitchers, based on Garza's fluke '11 and Dempster's fluke first half of this year, and pointedly ignoring the huge difference in competitive environment. But they're not great pitchers, and not better than any of as many as five guys we've already got.

I agree with the over-arching point you're making. But on bolded #1- I completely disagree. First, I wouldn't wager $20 on either Matsuzaka or Dempster being healthy but if forced to, I'd put my money on anyone but Daisuke. I have no faith in his arm's health, much less his ability to harness his stuff to be an effective starter.

On Bolded #2, Garza is IMO clearly a better pitcher than the internal options with pretty solid track record. All other options are giant question marks.http://www.fangraphs...age=0&type=mini

[67YAZ]

Theo wants to dump Castro for prospects. Castro is an impatient hitter who is an extremely uneven defender. We saw him give the Red Sox the game Sunday. Some GMs will see the.300 average, the occasional flashy play, and AS appearance and go after him.

I think Bard could start in the NL. The Cubs would have far more time to develop him.

I live in Chicago and follow th Cubs rather closely as its my wife's team. There's just not much smoke around moving Castro, plus it doesnt make much sense if you actually think about it. He's a 22 yr old All Star short stop under team control for 3 more years after this season. You trade him now only if you are sure this is his peak value, that he won't trend like the vast majority of players in MLB history and improve his game through his mid-20s. The regression this year seems largely mental - decreased walk rate, caught stealing a third of the time, base running gaffes, poor fielding - but is BAIP and slugging are in line with his care performance. He's a young man who has become the face of the team while adjusting to a whole new management regime while also fighting a sexual assault charge in the offseason. Unless Hoyer and Theo get an offer that bowls them over, the time to decide on Castro is after the 2014 season. Where is the rebuilding project and how does Castro fit into it (long-term deal covering his late-20s and early-30s or trade him for more pieces)?

Just think rationally from the others team's perspective when discussing potential trades. If the Cubs and Sox do deal again this year, is likely going to be some of the Sox pitching and catching depth headed out, players set to break in the next 3 years.

[TomRicardo]

I live in Chicago and follow th Cubs rather closely as its my wife's team. There's just not much smoke around moving Castro, plus it doesnt make much sense if you actually think about it. He's a 22 yr old All Star short stop under team control for 3 more years after this season. You trade him now only if you are sure this is his peak value, that he won't trend like the vast majority of players in MLB history and improve his game through his mid-20s. The regression this year seems largely mental - decreased walk rate, caught stealing a third of the time, base running gaffes, poor fielding - but is BAIP and slugging are in line with his care performance. He's a young man who has become the face of the team while adjusting to a whole new management regime while also fighting a sexual assault charge in the offseason. Unless Hoyer and Theo get an offer that bowls them over, the time to decide on Castro is after the 2014 season. Where is the rebuilding project and how does Castro fit into it (long-term deal covering his late-20s and early-30s or trade him for more pieces)?

Just think rationally from the others team's perspective when discussing potential trades. If the Cubs and Sox do deal again this year, is likely going to be some of the Sox pitching and catching depth headed out, players set to break in the next 3 years.

You just pointed out every trap that other GMs will fall into when they offer the moon for Castro this offseason.

He is probably getting 5 to 6 million next year which is a discount for ~3.5 WAR player like Castro but not much. Players with absurdly high BABIP and low BB% do not age well at all.

If given the choice of Castro or Iglesias and a ton of prospects, Even someone as bearish as me would take Iglesias ten times out of ten. Especially on NL team that is not close to competing in 2013.

Edited by TomRicardo, 20 June 2012 - 05:54 PM.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Castro needs to add something else to his game as he gets older if he wants to be considered a premier talent. Either he develops some power, or he becomes a high quality defender, or he refines his baselining game to generate tons of steals at a high rate, or develops a batting eye that makes him an elite leadoff type. But .300 of mostly empty batting average with a questionable globe at short and a few steals at a bad rate doesn't add up to a star. If there's a team out there who thinks he already is a star and will part with a high level package of prospects, I bet Theo would go for it.

[Rudy Pemberton]

He's 22, though. With a 761 OPS as a SS. Yeah, he's got things to work on but he's going to get even better. The Cubs aren't good now, and won't be for awhile, but he's 22, and under team control until 2017, exactly the kind of guy you build around.

[Sprowl]

Castro notwithstanding (and unlikely, given the Red Sox' overinvestment in the position, with Aviles, Iglesias, Vinicio and Marrero lined up), why should the Red Sox bring in Dempster? Poor and declining velocity, overdependence on the slider, and a move from the NL weakest to the AL strongest -- why would this be a good idea?

I presume that Cherington is lending his co-bidder to Theo to raise the asking price from the Dodgers.