That 2012 heat map combined with the increased O-Swing and O-Contact% paint a gruesome picture. It's almost as if he's been in a funk and decided to be more aggressive to try and slug his way out of it which only made it worse...
except that he has a career high F-Strike% which is the opposite of what you'd expect someone being more aggressive to do. I suppose the increased F-Strike% could also be pitchers attacking him more early because of the fact that he's been less effective, but his swinging strike rate is right in line with his career norms (8.9 vs 10.1 career). It's really strange. Looking at some stats, he seems more patient than normal (or at worst, just as patient as always), but others suggest a more aggressive approach.
What stands out most to me, and what frightens me the most is that his ability to hit the four seam fastball and the change up have dropped off the table. His wFB was 40.1 last year. It was 20.1 the year before that and 29.6 in 2009. It's at -2.7 right now. He actually has a negative value on four seam fastballs. His wCH dropped from 5.8 last year to 0.7 so far this year. And yet, he's not seeing similar drops against other pitches. It's almost as if he simply can't hit straight pitches anymore. I'd argue that he can't catch up to fastballs anymore, but he's doing fine against two seamers. In fact, his wFT is 4.1 this year while having a negative cumulative value for his career (-15.2).
It's incredibly strange that his ability to hit four seam heat has literally vanished this year.
Edit: I don't know why this didn't click with me when I originally posted this, but a higher F-Strike% could absolutely be the result of a more aggressive approach as F-Strike% isn't first pitch looking strikes, it's just first pitch strikes. If he's hacking and either missing or fouling off more first pitches, it would account for the rise in F-Swing% that he's had this season. Durr.
Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 13 June 2012 - 12:28 PM.