52 replies to this topic

[Plympton91]

Mike Aviles has a .280 OBP. Tbat is intolerably low, and, sadly, not an uncommon level for him to sit at over long periods.

Dreamboat II, aka Iglesias, has a mysterious back ailment, which given the experience of the past two seasons will probably mean his career is over (/dramatic overreaction).

So, the question is, can they acquire a short-term upgrade at this point? (Actually, the question is why did they trade Jed Lowrie, but that ship has sailed).

At a minimum, Aviles has been playing nearly every day for the first time in a long time. Part of his slide could easily be tiredness. Should they be giving Nick Punto, whose last 5 seasons have produced OBP of roughly .330 .340 .305 .388, and currently .301 despite a .180 avg, more time than they are?

[j44thor]

why did they trade Jed Lowrie

The Jed Lowrie who through 4yrs had never played more than 88 games in a season?

[Rasputin]

No, they shouldn't, certainly not for this season. Get healthy, take your chances, give Iglesias his shot, save the bullets.

[SMU_Sox]

Aviles is 7th in wRC+ for AL shortstops. Aviles is 13th in wRC+ for all MLB SS's. He's in the middle of the pack offensively. Defensively we don't have a large enough sample size to conclude much of anything but in 1,729 innings at SS since 2008 he is a +14 UZR/150 at SS. That doesn't pass my sniff test but he's certainly more likely to be middle of the pack defensively than a liability.

Aviles is a mediocre player, sure, and is a good/possible target for an upgrade in the off-season but not at this point in the season. He's certainly not such a lousy asset that he necessitates an upgrade - at least not now.

The way this season has shaken out the Sox are more likely to be sellers than buyers this July (or not doing anything). Trading assets for a shortstop (you didn't identify who you wanted to go for either) doesn't make sense.

Lastly who is currently better than Aviles and available? I can't see why any of the teams with SS's better than Aviles would want to trade them before the AS break.

[dbn]

They should trade Aviles, straight up, for this guy who makes the exact same salary and is hitting 0.047 OPS points above average for SSs in the AL. Then all will be well.

[Hambone]

Mike Aviles has a .280 OBP. Tbat is intolerably low, and, sadly, not an uncommon level for him to sit at over long periods.

Dreamboat II, aka Iglesias, has a mysterious back ailment, which given the experience of the past two seasons will probably mean his career is over (/dramatic overreaction).

So, the question is, can they acquire a short-term upgrade at this point? (Actually, the question is why did they trade Jed Lowrie, but that ship has sailed).

At a minimum, Aviles has been playing nearly every day for the first time in a long time. Part of his slide could easily be tiredness. Should they be giving Nick Punto, whose last 5 seasons have produced OBP of roughly .330 .340 .305 .388, and currently .301 despite a .180 avg, more time than they are?

Surely you have a good suggestion for a minor league prospect with a sexy MLE that's stuck behind a solid major league shortstop on another team?

Edited by Hambone, 10 June 2012 - 08:27 PM.

[Plympton91]

Surely you have a good suggestion for a minor league prospect with a sexy MLE that's stuck behind a solid major league shortstop on another team?

Well, Punto against righthanders is an easy upgrade to make. Gammons said the Cubs were at leat a little open to overwhelming offers for their shortstop. Rumor also has it the Cubs GM might have, at least at some point, really liked a few of the Sox minor leaguers.

They need to upgrade somewhere if they're going to stay in this. The Nats trio of aces (remember when the Red Sox had aces?) exposed the flotsam and jetsam occupying this lineup. Unless they go on another 8-2 streak soon, Ellsbury, Bailey, and Crawford will be coming back to a lost season. That would be extremely unfortunate, because if they have the 25 guys they were planning on, plus the emergent Middlebrooks and Kalish, they're quite possibly the best team in the American League.

You only get so many chances at that. Let's not waste one on inaction.

[Sprowl]

No, they shouldn't, certainly not for this season. Get healthy, take your chances, give Iglesias his shot, save the bullets.

I agree. Aviles has played a competent 3/4-time shortstop, Punto is an acceptable backup and platoon lefty, and Iglesias is the future not the present (at least until Vinicio or Bogaerts become the future instead).

I don't want the team going all out for 2012. In fact, I'd rather they build assets to construct an excellent 2013 team and treat 2012 as a bridge year. Either the existing talent gets hot (still a reasonable gamble), or what we've seen is what we'll get. If it's the latter, then Aviles playing 3/4 time with Punto backing up until Iglesias comes up in September is quite adequate for a .500 team.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Well, Punto against righthanders is an easy upgrade to make. Gammons said the Cubs were at leat a little open to overwhelming offers for their shortstop. Rumor also has it the Cubs GM might have, at least at some point, really liked a few of the Sox minor leaguers.

Starlin Castro is a 22 year old all star shortstop under team control through 2016. He's exactly the type of player that a team in the Cubs position builds around, not one they move at the trade deadline for a handful of mediocre prospects. To make an overwhelming offer, the Sox would have to start with players like Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Bradley Jr, and Lavarnway. Seems like a prime opportunity to overpay for a position that isn't exactly a gaping black hole organizationally.

[Plympton91]

Even if you think they should build for 2013, then I'd say the weakest link in 2013 is likely to once again be shortstop.

Salty already is what they hope Lavarnway can be, so if you're getting a premium talent like Castro, you give him up. If the future of 3B is Middlebrooks, then either Iglesias or Boegerts is certainly expendable for a premium talent like Castro. Or, you give them Will M, pick up Youk's option and move Boegerts to 3B. Throw in a top pitching prospect, or maybe Bard for that matter, and maybe a 4th lottery ticket. They can get it done.

They're only a 500 team because of the injuries. Given the breakouts by some question marks coming in, when they're healthy they're easily a strong contender for the post-season tournament championship. If the injured players are healthy in September but the team buried itself by being scared of making an impact move in June, they've wasted a season. Other teams are going to improve in 2013 too. A Castro in hand is worth 2 in the bush leagues.

[SoxScout]

I'll believe the first Nightengale report, the one that said Theo would move Castro... before Theo had to come out and shoot it down. Castro is a weak hacker that won't take a walk and has more misplays at SS than anyone over the last two years and is on the verge of being benched for "not having his head in the game." Sounds great. If someone wants to overpay for that I'm sure it wouldn't be turned down. No interest in him at all.

Edited by SoxScout, 10 June 2012 - 09:18 PM.

[Reverend]

Even if you think they should build for 2013, then I'd say the weakest link in 2013 is likely to once again be shortstop.

Salty already is what they hope Lavarnway can be, so if you're getting a premium talent like Castro, you give him up. If the future of 3B is Middlebrooks, then either Iglesias or Boegerts is certainly expendable for a premium talent like Castro. Or, you give them Will M, pick up Youk's option and move Boegerts to 3B. Throw in a top pitching prospect, or maybe Bard for that matter, and maybe a 4th lottery ticket. They can get it done.

They're only a 500 team because of the injuries. Given the breakouts by some question marks coming in, when they're healthy they're easily a strong contender for the post-season tournament championship. If the injured players are healthy in September but the team buried itself by being scared of making an impact move in June, they've wasted a season. Other teams are going to improve in 2013 too. A Castro in hand is worth 2 in the bush leagues.

Do you believe the trade you envision is the tipping point difference maker on making the playoffs or winning the World Series? And if so, can you explain why and how?

It's that simple. If you can, I'll hear you out. Absent that, I'm not clear what any of this adds.

[Plympton91]

Starlin Castro is the same age as Jose Iglesias, and yet has a career major league OPS that is 200 points higher than Iglesias has in AAA.

[SoxScout]

Buster_ESPN: As defined by Baseball Info Solutions, most misplays/errors by middle infielders since 5/7/10: Castro 171, Desmond 131, R. Weeks 106.

[Reverend]

Starlin Castro is the same age as Jose Iglesias, and yet has a career major league OPS that is 200 points higher than Iglesias has in AAA.

So you think Castro is better than a guy who can't manage to make the team yet...?A

And that increases the probability of making the play offs by how much?

Edited by Reverend, 10 June 2012 - 09:40 PM.

[Plympton91]

Do you believe the trade you envision is the tipping point difference maker on making the playoffs or winning the World Series? And if so, can you explain why and how?

It's that simple. If you can, I'll hear you out. Absent that, I'm not clear what any of this adds.

That's quite the strawman, isn't it? I can't guarantee that acquiring Barry Bonds in his prime would be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

Giving Punto more at bats against rhp would be an upgrade.

A trade for Castro would be an upgrade for this year, likely for at least the next two, and, if Boegerts can't stay at SS, for the indefinite future. So it would not be just about making or missing the playoffs this year, it would be about improving the team in 2013 and likely beyond.

Then again, given the evidence we have from Cherington, I'm not sure I want him making trades. He seems quite the pushover in negotiations. .

[E5 Yaz]

If you want to upgrade at shortstop, fine. But why Castro? He'd cost a bundle, has raised defensive and maturity issues and you'd have to work out a trade with Theo ... which in itself could be a nightmare.

Aim lower, to someone perhaps out of favor on a team who could be had on the cheap. Stephen Drew is rounding into shape after his ankle injury, and the D'Backs owner seems not to be a fan. He's owed about $10M and if Arizona is that hard up to get rid of him, it might be worth a shot once he's ready physically. Could slide to third, as well, if WMB falters.

[Reverend]

That's quite the strawman, isn't it? I can't guarantee that acquiring Barry Bonds in his prime would be the difference between making the playoffs or not.

Giving Punto more at bats against rhp would be an upgrade.

A trade for Castro would be an upgrade for this year, likely for at least the next two, and, if Boegerts can't stay at SS, for the indefinite future. So it would not be just about making or missing the playoffs this year, it would be about improving the team in 2013 and likely beyond.

Then again, given the evidence we have from Cherington, I'm not sure I want him making trades. He seems quite the pushover in negotiations. .

I never said Castro wouldn't be an upgrade.

Asking the degree to which a move would upgrade the team, ostensibly as a criterion for evaluating whether or not a trade ought to be conducted, is not a strawman; this is not debatable.

Edited by Reverend, 10 June 2012 - 09:50 PM.

[absintheofmalaise]

I'm curious as to how much of an upgrade Castro would be over Aviles too. I'm also curious how much that upgrade would cost. What are you willing to pay in prospects for 1 or 2 wins?

[Rasputin]

That's quite the strawman, isn't it?

No, it's really not.

The Red Sox are a team with a large payroll, relatively few prospects in the high minors who are worth a damn, a demanding fan base that hasn't seen the post season in two plus years, and a lot of talent on the DL.

If the talent on the DL isn't enough to make the difference between what is, and a post season berth then upgrading the shortstop from Mike Aviles to Alex Rodriguez in his prime is not likely enough and more to the point, upgrading to someone who is better but still dramatically flawed is a pathetically poor waste of resources.

Stay the course. Get healthy. Hope that getting healthy is enough to control a wild card spot where we'll have Beckett or Lester and the better offense which gives us a decent chance to win.

In the off season you revamp, pare a little payroll, see which of Iglesias, Lavarnway, Kalish, and Middlebrooks are ready to step in, and go from there.

The difference between the .500 team we look like now and the 90 win team that will likely take the second wild card is a grand total of nine wins.

[Sprowl]

Even if you think they should build for 2013, then I'd say the weakest link in 2013 is likely to once again be shortstop.

I can't agree there. The Red Sox have had a string of mediocre-to-acceptable shortstops since Nomar. Aviles is just more of the same. I continue to think that the most likely way for the Red Sox to go from acceptable to outstanding at shortstop is for Iglesias to learn to hit .270/.310/.370, while fielding like a 21st Century Ozzie Smith. I very much doubt that will happen in 2012, but it's a reasonable chance by 2013. Playing that option costs the team nothing, while acquiring a shortstop better than Aviles will cost a substantial price.

Other spots are questionable too: Salty has power, but not quite the patience or OBP that his minor-league numbers suggested. Outfield is riddled with question marks. Centerfield and leftfield depend on full recovery from injury. An Ellsbury who can't recover his 2011 power or a Crawford that can't throw would put a serious dent in this team's prospects for both 2012 and 2013.

They're only a 500 team because of the injuries. Given the breakouts by some question marks coming in, when they're healthy they're easily a strong contender for the post-season tournament championship. If the injured players are healthy in September but the team buried itself by being scared of making an impact move in June, they've wasted a season. Other teams are going to improve in 2013 too. A Castro in hand is worth 2 in the bush leagues.

Castro's price would be enormous, and his value in the field is questionable. Pass.

Breakouts? I don't see any. Middlebrooks and Nava have been pleasant surprises, but nobody should count on them for much more this year. Sweeney is a positive contributor who still has yet to hit a home run. Atchison and Miller are more likely to regress than to shut down the league. Doubront has looked like a solid #4 starter, but not much more. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz have had their moments, but overall have disappointed.

[Plympton91]

Rev, you didn't ask how much it would upgrade the team. You asked how it would affect the probability of making the playoffs in 2012. A trade for Castro would affect not just 2012, but at least 2013 to 2015 as well.

Ras, I don't think it is accurate anymore to say there are relatively few players in the minors worth a damn. The breakouts in the minors have been nothing short of extraordinary.

Also, look at the projected roster for 2013. What other positions are you saving bullets to upgrade? I see no holes at all on the 2013 team except SS.

And again, I brought up Castro as an option. The other option is just to bench Aviles against righties, against whom he's been atrocious, and use Punto more.

[Reverend]

Rev, you didn't ask how much it would upgrade the team. You asked how it would affect the probability of making the playoffs in 2012.

Do we have different definition of what the purpose of the team is?

A trade for Castro would affect not just 2012, but at least 2013 to 2015 as well.

Ok, fine. But then the same question applies--does the cost benefit analysis scan? Is the cost worth the benefit? Maybe it is, but there;s nothing here.

Ras, I don't think it is accurate anymore to say there are relatively few players in the minors worth a damn. The breakouts in the minors have been nothing short of extraordinary.

You may be right. How would I know?

Also, look at the projected roster for 2013. What other positions are you saving bullets to upgrade? I see no holes at all on the 2013 team except SS.

Write out the projected roster for 2012 that someone might have written up a year ago. Compare it to this year's roster.

Then do as you will.

[absintheofmalaise]

P91, I'd still like to know what you are willing to pay for these extra wins that Castro would give the Sox and I'm really interested in how many more wins he would theoretically give them over Aviles/Punto.

[bosox79]

I dont think Aviles or Iglesias should prevent us for upgrading at SS if its long term. I dont think Castro is the guy to target though. That would be buying high.

[bosox79]

Oddly enough, baseballreference.com most similar to Castro... Mike Aviles.

[SMU_Sox]

I think, P91, it would be to everyone's benefit if you took the time to post your math, assumptions, evidence, etc.. You draw a lot of conclusions without giving, imho, enough support. Disorganized proclamations that jump around from post to post don't have strong coherent structure. I'm not saying this should be a Lincoln-Douglas style debate but this is a sloppy thread.

You throw out that Punto should bat against RHP's. Punto's career wRC+ against RHP is 77. Aviles' is 81. However, Aviles is a 59 this year and Punto was a 126 last year (and a 66 this year). Both Punto's 126 and 66 are in far less than the 500 PA for them to be statistically significant. The same is true for drawing any conclusions from Aviles' 59 in a mere 116 PA's. Why should Punto bat against RHP?

[reggiecleveland]

I am pretty sure Bobby V the ESPN guy said Castro was a good bet to be better than Earnie Banks

[Rasputin]

Ras, I don't think it is accurate anymore to say there are relatively few players in the minors worth a damn. The breakouts in the minors have been nothing short of extraordinary.

I said high minors.

Guys like Iglesias, Middlebrooks, Kalish, and Lavarnway could reasonably be expected to contribute significantly in 2013. Other than that, the only thing I see at Pawtucket is Tazawa who might be an effective starter and probably will be an effective reliever.

As far as I can see, the only one at Portland who looks like he can be more than a bench player in 2013 is Brentz and that's dubious especially considering how unlikely it is.

If any of the AAA guys actually pan out, we'd be much better off if they did so with us where Middlebrooks can save us 12 million to Youks, Kalish can save most of what we're paying Ross and Sweeney. Combined with the savings from Doubront replacing Dice K and we're looking at 25ish million dollars in salary which brings the team a hell of a lot closer to the luxury tax threshold.

The bottom line is that we'd be much better off promoting the guys in the high minors than trading them. Nobody is really blocking them and we could use the dollars.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Looking at runs per game, the Sox have the second best offense in the league (5.14), and the second worst pitching/defense (4.78). By what logic is the solution to strip-mine a farm system almost entirely defined by its A-level potential, for a potential offensive upgrade?

Put alternatively: no, the Sox should not try to upgrade SS. But they should try to keep Bogaerts at the position as long as humanly possible. And have Padilla make live sacrifices to the baseball gods to get healthy and for Matsuzaka, Buchholz, and Lester to be upgrades to Bard, Buchholz, and Lester.

And think about being sellers at the trade deadline rather than buyers.

[Fishercat]

There's a lot of noise around this, but does anyone know who leads the Red Sox in WAR this year among position players (Fangraphs)?

That's right, Mike Aviles. I'm guessing his positive contribution on defense and the timing of his good hits is artificially inflating his value, but really, even his terrible OBP doesn't outweigh what he's done so far. His slugging is in the same range as Ryan Sweeney (who has been a pleasant surprise), Adrian Gonzalez (huge down year), and Dustin Pedroia. Also, even though BABIP does change for the quality of the hitter, it's worth noting that in most of his full seasons, his BABIP has been 20-30 points above his regular BA, and it's only nine points higher this year. He may be getting a bit unlucky, but probably not enough to dramatically change an assessment.

I mean, even if you ignore defense and are generally worried about this level of production (the whole year) continuing, who is demonstrably better than Aviles this year at the plate? Lowrie, Andrus, Furcal, Tulo, Castro, Cabrera, Jeter*. There are others who share Aviles flaws of a low OBP and low-ish AVG like Ian Desmond, J.J. Hardy, or Zack Cozart.

The main concern you would have on Aviles at SS is dependent on how "real" both halves of his season have been. If you think he's closer to April or even his composite numbers, I think the argument is hard to make. Maybe you play Punto (ugh) against righties more often, but to get anyone demonstrably better would either be impossible or would take way more than it would be worth, or you would be taking a shot on a flier and hoping you hit on a marginal upgrade. If you think his May is the real Aviles, then P91 may have a point here, since he was upgradable from those stats. It should be noted that in SSS heaven, his Mays have almost always been bad. 360 PAs, .634 OPS, which is roughly 85 points worse than any other month.

I wouldn't be opposed to upgrading Aviles, but considering we're running Scott Podsednik out to CF on a regular basis and our pitching is our pitching, I'm guessing cheaper and more impactful upgrades can be found at other positions

[LeoCarrillo]

Speier has a column today about how Bogaerts could be the next Hanley and a young A-Rod even pops up in the piece.

http://www.weei.com/...t-xander-bogaer

Bogaerts is 19 and already ahead of schedule. Quickly slotted in Greenville where he went

.260 BA, .324 OBP,. 509 slugging, .834 OPS and 16 HR in just 72 games

and now mashing at Salem at

.292 BA, .360 OBP, .489 slugging (sixth in the league), .848 OPS (eighth), eight HR (tied-eighth) and 25 extra-base hits (sixth).

Question is: How soon can this kid be up? Hanley was up at 22, A-Rod up at 20 but probably should've been up at 19.

Is second-half 2013 out of the question? The timetable would obviously affect any shortstop trade discussion (unless they're planning to move him to RF and push Kalish to CF in 2014 when Ellsbury bolts town for Crawford money).

Edit: to fix spacing.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 11 June 2012 - 10:30 AM.

[Marbleheader]

I'd say, yes, it's probably out of the question.  He's young to be in Salem right now.  Off chance he'll be in Portland at the end of this year, but more likely next year.  2014 is optimistic, but possible .  He is still filling out and his defense still needs development if they want to keep him at SS.  Last year, there was talk of sliding him to 3rd, but if they fast track him, WMB is going to be here for a while.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'd say, yes, it's probably out of the question. He's young to be in Salem right now. Off chance he'll be in Portland at the end of this year, but more likely next year. 2014 is optimistic, but possible . He is still filling out and his defense still needs development if they want to keep him at SS. Last year, there was talk of sliding him to 3rd, but if they fast track him, WMB is going to be here for a while.

I actually see it likely that Bogaerts and Barnes get moved to Portland for the last 4-6 weeks of the season or so. It's not rushing if the performance is as good as Bogaerts and Barnes are doing. Unless there are makeup/personal issues that cause the Sox to be hesitant to relocate either one mid-season.

Bogaerts' OBP and BB/K are both pretty much right in line with where Hanley was in 2004 when he was promoted to AA for his final ~120 AB's of the season. Bogaert's slugging is .100 higher than Hanley's was at hi-A. His makeup appears to be significantly more suited to remain level-headed with top-prospect billing.

And for proper perspective, Bogaerts is almost 2 years younger than Hanley was.

[LondonSox]

Bogartes is a fantastic prospect, better results better performance younger than Hanley. He might be the most exciting sox prospect in a long time.
But the consensus is that he won't stick at ss long term. Although I believe Hanley had the same reports.

[Super Nomario]

And for proper perspective, Bogaerts is almost 2 years younger than Hanley was.

Just a year (actually a litle less), right? Hanley's birthday is 12/23/83, so he was 20 the entire '04 season and turned 21 that December. Bogaerts' birthday is 10/1/92, so he's 19 now and will turn 20 in October.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Just a year (actually a litle less), right? Hanley's birthday is 12/23/83, so he was 20 the entire '04 season and turned 21 that December. Bogaerts' birthday is 10/1/92, so he's 19 now and will turn 20 in October.

Indeed, I didn't fact-check my source -- the SoxProspects page on him, which I relied on, bumps his age up one year beyond what it should.

Thus, Bogaerts is only ~10 months younger than Hanley in '04. I would think that makes a late-season promotion all the more likely.

[LeoCarrillo]

But the consensus is that he won't stick at ss long term.

Speier's article mentioned the possibilities of 3B or a corner OF spot. But 3B would mean trading WMB, since Papi seems like he'll have DH locked down through 2014 at least. And RF means he surpasses Kalish, or in 2014 Kalish goes to CF with Ells gone via FA.

Seems like the best-case (non-Ellsbury) scenario is be patient and wait for Bogaerts at SS, WMB at 3B, Kalish in RF and Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF.

Edited by LeoCarrillo, 11 June 2012 - 01:14 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Bogartes is a fantastic prospect, better results better performance younger than Hanley. He might be the most exciting sox prospect in a long time.
But the consensus is that he won't stick at ss long term. Although I believe Hanley had the same reports.

Correct -- in the long-term.

However, if the Sox can keep Bogaerts at SS through his age 25-26 seasons, they could still potentially get 3-4 years of great-bat, mediocre-glove out of him before he needs to move off the position. His primary competition for those seasons is Iglesias. And for one, I would take Jeter over Ordonez any day of the week.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Correct -- in the long-term. However, if the Sox can keep Bogaerts at SS through his age 25-26 seasons, they could still potentially get 3-4 years of great-bat, mediocre-glove out of him before he needs to move off the position. His primary competition for those seasons is Iglesias. And for one, I would take Jeter over Ordonez any day of the week.

This raises an interesting question--when people say, of a prospect like Bogaerts, that he won't stick at shortstop, it seems like they could mean any of at least three things:

1) He'll be a serious defensive liability. Moving him is a top priority. Examples: Wil Cordero, Jose Offerman.
2) He'll be a mild-to-moderate defensive liability. Moving him is preferable, but his offense is good enough that he could play at SS for a while at least without hurting you. Examples: Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter.
3) He'll be an average or better defender, but his offense is so good that it will play at less demanding positions, so why not move him if you have a viable SS alternative? Examples: A-Rod, Ernie Banks.

Which of these are we imagining Bogaerts as?

[Rasputin]

This raises an interesting question--when people say, of a prospect like Bogaerts, that he won't stick at shortstop, it seems like they could mean any of at least three things:

1) He'll be a serious defensive liability. Moving him is a top priority. Examples: Wil Cordero, Jose Offerman.
2) He'll be a mild-to-moderate defensive liability. Moving him is preferable, but his offense is good enough that he could play at SS for a while at least without hurting you. Examples: Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter.
3) He'll be an average or better defender, but his offense is so good that it will play at less demanding positions, so why not move him if you have a viable SS alternative? Examples: A-Rod, Ernie Banks.

Which of these are we imagining Bogaerts as?

You forgot

4) His range, while acceptable now, is unlikely to be acceptable down the road as he ages and his body thickens.

The relevant question will be "When does his range become too much of a liability?" and the relevant answer will depend on the abilities of everyone else on the team.

[JakeRae]

This raises an interesting question--when people say, of a prospect like Bogaerts, that he won't stick at shortstop, it seems like they could mean any of at least three things:

1) He'll be a serious defensive liability. Moving him is a top priority. Examples: Wil Cordero, Jose Offerman.
2) He'll be a mild-to-moderate defensive liability. Moving him is preferable, but his offense is good enough that he could play at SS for a while at least without hurting you. Examples: Hanley Ramirez, Derek Jeter.
3) He'll be an average or better defender, but his offense is so good that it will play at less demanding positions, so why not move him if you have a viable SS alternative? Examples: A-Rod, Ernie Banks.

Which of these are we imagining Bogaerts as?

I don't think 3 is really part of the list. It is more like:

• He is playing the position now because that's what he played in high school or college but he is terrible defensively and needs to move down the spectrum.
• He is playing a position now that he projects to lose the ability to play as he matures into his body.
• There is another position that he looks like he is more suited to defensively but he is staying at the position higher on the spectrum as it grants him more opportunities while he's in the minors and he doesn't need to move yet.

Bogaerts is part of the 2nd group. Pedroia is the current posterchild for the second group out of current Sox players. Montero might be the current posterchild for the 1st group.

The reason I am ignoring your third category is that no one talks about guys moving off of positions that they play well when those players are prospects. ARod, for example, did stick at SS. He only moved due to roster issues once he was in NY. As another recent example, no one ever said Harper couldn't stick at catcher. He was moved to expedite the process of getting him to MLB and to make sure he could be in the lineup everyday once there. Catchers are a bit of a special case here too.

Scouts are rarely wrong about categories 1 and 3. (3 is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy.) Category 2 is a lot trickier as it relies on projecting the impact of the player's body maturing. So, in this case, the idea that Bogaerts needs to move is because scouts expect him to get stronger and thicker, lose mobility and range, and no longer be a 3B. They are most likely right, but that doesn't mean that there isn't a chance that if he gets to MLB before he fills out, he couldn't put in a few seasons at SS before needing to move.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Keep in mind they could have Marerro in the mix soon, who is fairly advanced and could knock on the door sooner than Bogaerts. If Bogaerts is ready before 2014, I'll be impressed. He could spend part of this year in AA, but will likely need all of 2013 before he's ready to start in the majors, even if he keeps tearing the cover off the ball. So, if the team still has Papi around and he's still maintaining his level of excellence at that point, and Middlebrooks is hitting well enough that they can't justify sitting him, Marerro is plugging up short with enough of a bat that you can't slot Bogaets there over him... well, a whole lot will have gone very very right and it will be a good problem to have.

In other words, I'm not worried about it.

[Plympton91]

Speier's article mentioned the possibilities of 3B or a corner OF spot. But 3B would mean trading WMB, since Papi seems like he'll have DH locked down through 2014 at least. And RF means he surpasses Kalish, or in 2014 Kalish goes to CF with Ells gone via FA. Seems like the best-case (non-Ellsbury) scenario is be patient and wait for Bogaerts at SS, WMB at 3B, Kalish in RF and Jackie Bradley Jr. in CF.

Sure, those people paying $200 for tickets probably don't care if they watch a .500 team while they wait to see which lottery numbers hit.

[absintheofmalaise]

Sure, those people paying $200 for tickets probably don't care if they watch a .500 team while they wait to see which lottery numbers hit.

So instead of coming into the thread that you started to answer legitimate questions by a number of posters, you instead chose to make some bullshit game thread type post. If you aren't going to even attempt to add content why even bother.

[Plympton91]

The majority of the past 20 posts has been wishcasting of prospects upsides rather than reasoned analysis of how to ensure that the Red Sox don't miss the postseason tournament for the 3rd consecutive season. Indeed, seems like plenty of posters on this Board would be content to punt the 2013 season as well, and just wait for the latest new baubles from Class A baseball to flame out.

Every year it's the same thing; Hell, I was here when it was, "Oh, we don't need Roger Clemens, he's in the twilight of his career;" and anyway, Suppan, Rose and Pavano are the second coming of Glavine, Maddux, and Smoltz. Before 2011 it was, get rid of Papelbon, Daniel Bard is the closer of the future! Boegarts is certainly an exciting prospect, one of the most promising we've seen. But, at the end of the day, it's A ball. The Red Sox would have done very well indeed if they'd traded Lars Anderson after his monster season in high A and quarter season in AA. The fact is that most propects end up like Lars Anderson or maybe Carl Pavano and a precious few of them end up like Dustin Pedroia or Jon Lester.

Prospects are great discussion pieces and fun to follow, but they should not stand in the way of acquiring young, cost controlled players with substantial upside. Hell, even when they're not cost controlled it's still close to a no brainer. When you can trade Hanley Ramirez for Josh Beckett or Kelly and Rizzo for Gonzalez, you do it every day and twice on Sunday. In the case of Castro, the Red Sox would be getting a guarantee of 4 years of a guy who put up a 775 OPS as a 21 year old; I'm unconcerned that a 21 year old shortstop made a lot of errors, as the list showed, almost all of them do.

At the end of the day, the first paragraph of this post is the most important. It seems I'm showing my age in that my discount factor is way lower than many others here. I'm simply not willing to write off a baseball season with such a talented team just around the corner. The fill ins have done an admirable job of giving the Sox management some time to breathe and evaluate it's options. They're starting to falter without their stars, however, and it's time for management to step up and bridge the gap between now and the return of Ellsbury, Crawford, and Bailey. Acquiring a top outfielder would present a logjam when they come back and in 2013. They are stacked at DH, the corner infield positions, and catcher for this year and 2013 unless they choose to hurt themselves by kicking Ortiz to the curb. Pedroia is struggling now but leaves 2nd base stacked for 2013. The bullpen is rock solid, soon to have as many as 3 more quality pitchers than spots (holy shit, who would have thought that!). The starting pitching, while lacking a true ace, seems to have at least 2 that can fake it every once in a while and a minimum 5 very competent #3 or #4 quality pitchers. As they've shown, they've got plenty of depth to round out a cheap, quality bench. The problem is, those players who should be the bench--like Aviles--are starting.

Some look at that and say, let's stand pat and wishcast that before April 2013, Iglassias will both learn how to hit and have the first healthy season he's had since he defected. I say, let's use some lottery tickets, a.k.a. prospects, to get a real shortstop.

[bombdiggz]

Sure, those people paying $200 for tickets probably don't care if they watch a .500 team while they wait to see which lottery numbers hit.

I'm not sure what at all that has to do with conversation at hand, which you proposed...

Aviles has his flaws (and also his benefits). Have you looked around the league at SSs lately? Who do you propose we target and what do we make available? And then what do we do with our 15/15 SS?

As you watch this team right now do you find yourself saying, "if only we had a better shortstop"?

Even if you think they should build for 2013, then I'd say the weakest link in 2013 is likely to once again be shortstop.

Wow, very interesting. So do you think there might be something about shortstops in particular or does Boston just have a particularly weak shortstop? Maybe we could sort positions by OPS and see which position comes out the weakest? Again, really provocative stuff that you have put out here...

Edited by bombdiggz, 12 June 2012 - 02:20 AM.

[Plympton91]

Aviles has his flaws (and also his benefits). Have you looked around the league at SSs lately? Who do you propose we target and what do we make available? And then what do we do with our 15/15 SS?

Have you even read the thread? I proposed on dramatic move for Castro or one tiny move such as using an existing asset who has an OBP over the past 3 years that is 60 points higher than Aviles current carries, and an even greater advantage if you look only at how Aviles does against righthanders. Someone else has mentioned that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade Steven Drew. That's also worth considering, depending on the price.

As you watch this team right now do you find yourself saying, "if only we had a better shortstop"?

I find myself saying they have a $100 million leftfielder who's not going anywhere, and MVP candidate in CF who shouldn't be going anywhere, a platoon that should put up well above average numbers in RF when healthy and a top prospect ready to step in if they don't, a stud propect a 3B who looks ready, a stud at 2B on a long-term deal, a $100 million first baseman not going anywhere, a very effective catching tanden that is easily re-signable, and a stud DH that is easily re-signable. They have excellent prospect depth in the outfield, such that a guy with a 950 OPS in AA can't earn a promotion to AAA, and a replacement level 1B/DH in Anderson or Gomez if necessary. They have 3 very expensive starters on long term contracts, another one of same likely to be back for 2013, a young pitcher in Doubront who looks like a cheap, quality #4 or #5. We have a top closer in Bailey, and it looks as though Bard will be back in the pen as well, pushing our current league average closer to #3 on the depth chart. We have Andrew Miller looking like a beast in relief (as I predicted had a 50/50 chance of happening this offseason) and good minor league bullpen depth in Wilson and Kurtz (who has been a stud in AA since May 1st).

At shortstop, we have a career journeyman with a .280 OBP, in AAA we have someone who's MLE OBP is even worse, and while the best prospect in the system is a SS, he's only in A+ and most scouts say he can't stay there defensively.

So, yeah, SS looks to me like the position where they could really benefit by exploring a trade for a 21-year-old kid who put up a 770 OPS.

Wow, very interesting. So do you think there might be something about shortstops in particular or does Boston just have a particularly weak shortstop? Maybe we could sort positions by OPS and see which position comes out the weakest? Again, really provocative stuff that you have put out here...

Again, if you had bothered to actually read and/or comprehend the thread, it is not as if we're talking about making a trade for another replacement level infielder. Also, I have always been amused by the idea that the Red Sox should be content with average ballplayers, when they play in the most competitive division in baseball. But, I guess some people still just don't see winning the division as a priority.

[DanoooME]

Maybe we could sort positions by OPS and see which position comes out the weakest? Again, really provocative stuff that you have put out here...

Per b-ref, the sOPS+ measures the OPS by split relative to the league. The split in this case is position:

Red Sox sOPS+

Split	G	GS	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	ROE	BAbip	tOPS+	sOPS+
as C	60		238	214	29	57	17	1	13	34	1	0	16	72	0.266	0.331	0.537	0.868	115	4	5	2	1	1	1	0.338	120	141
as 1B	60		268	241	34	63	20	0	7	30	0	0	20	45	0.261	0.321	0.432	0.752	104	5	3	0	4	1	3	0.29	94	99
as 2B	60		274	248	33	68	15	1	6	26	3	2	20	39	0.274	0.33	0.415	0.745	103	4	2	1	3	0	3	0.301	93	112
as 3B	60		253	228	32	56	12	0	8	36	2	1	20	73	0.246	0.312	0.404	0.716	92	8	3	0	2	0	1	0.322	85	97
as SS	60		267	252	36	66	15	0	8	36	7	3	9	37	0.262	0.284	0.417	0.701	105	3	0	3	3	0	2	0.276	79	105
as LF	60		248	210	35	52	20	0	6	33	2	1	29	54	0.248	0.346	0.429	0.774	90	3	4	2	3	1	2	0.301	101	105
as CF	60		243	219	29	61	12	0	4	23	3	4	13	43	0.279	0.316	0.388	0.705	85	2	1	6	4	0	4	0.324	83	85
as RF	60		251	229	34	68	22	2	5	31	4	3	18	53	0.297	0.351	0.476	0.827	109	4	2	0	2	1	0	0.364	113	112
as DH	57		253	221	41	69	20	0	13	36	0	1	31	36	0.312	0.395	0.579	0.974	128	2	0	0	1	7	0	0.324	149	149

Looks like 3 positions below average, and two of them just slightly (1B, 3B). The black hole offensively seems to be CF where Ells wasn't so hot in his few games and the majority of the work since then has gone to the recently DFA'ed Marlon Byrd. At 105, Aviles and Punto (4 G) have been above average offensively. Is this an area that really needs upgrading? Getting Ellsbury back would seem to be the best upgrade the team could make right now offensively.

Granted the Sox' overall OPS+at SS is 79 which isn't good relative to all players, but the 105 sOPS+ shows the Sox are in pretty good shape relative to the rest of baseball offensively at SS.

edit: keep leaving out small details

Edited by DanoooME, 12 June 2012 - 11:15 AM.

• Back to top

[ShaneTrot]

That chart depresses me. Gonzalez and Pedroia are really coming up small this year.

If we got that kind of production out of RF and LF last year, the Sox would have made the playoffs.