136 replies to this topic

[JimBoSox9]

Because measuring transient, visceral reactions is fun. What say ye, SoSH?

Edited by JimBoSox9, 03 June 2012 - 02:31 PM.

[mt8thsw9th]

They are fun, too.

[Pumpsie]

If Dice-K has one more good start (or maybe two) in Pawtucket, bring him up, DL Bard and let Bard continue to be starter...in Pawtucket. That'll buy you time to sort this out, make Dice-K a more attractive trade target (giving you another possibility) and let Bard continue to learn how to be a starter without screwing up the season for his teammates. Bard is not just struggling here, he's regressing to a has-been with every start. He needs some help. Give it to him.

[Kramerica Industries]

I think an argument can be made for sending him to the bullpen or creating a phantom dl trip to try to get his act together.

I just can't, for the life of me, come up with a good reason to "stay the course".

After all the walks, the lack of strikeouts, having virtually no command, the velocity down, and the inconsistent release point, how can he stay in the rotation? Im willing to be convinced otherwise, but I just don't see how he can stay as one of the starting five.

Does anyone really believe that a lack of a quality replacement is a good reason to keep this going?

Edited by Kramerica Industries, 03 June 2012 - 02:23 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

They are fun, too.

I'm pretty hung over, but isn't the "is" reflexive back to "measuring", making it singular? I did think (overthink?) about this before posting.

[Hendu's Gait]

low leverage BP at first, to get his control and confidence up, then to high leverage.

[JimBoSox9]

Interesting. It appears that editing the OP on the mobile skin caused the poll to be deleted. Hang on.

[JimBoSox9]

OK, we're back, but all votes got wiped away. I am a posting disaster today.

[LondonSox]

This is very reminiscent of his time in the minors, no control, hitting batters walks everywhere. He completely lost confidence and nearly ended his career before it started.
Given he was rescued and turned into a weapon, which took some time, they need to pull the plug ASAP. Whatever the reason he's shown he can't be the same pitcher as a starter get him down to AAA and into the bullpen.

[PrometheusWakefield]

I was strongly in favor of this experiment at the beginning but at this point unless there is something physically wrong with Bard I'm ready to throw in the towel. It's now been seven starts since he put together a performance with good peripherals. The crumbling command puts him close to the point where we just can't keep throwing him out there.

[Reverend]

This is very reminiscent of his time in the minors, no control, hitting batters walks everywhere. He completely lost confidence and nearly ended his career before it started.
Given he was rescued and turned into a weapon, which took some time, they need to pull the plug ASAP. Whatever the reason he's shown he can't be the same pitcher as a starter get him down to AAA and into the bullpen.

Could you or someone else elaborate on this history? There was debate in the game thread as to whether or not this may be a head issue with Bard, but the idea that he's fallen apart for non-physical/health reasons before did not come up, so I'd be interested in hearing more about this.

[TheoShmeo]

I voted pen/high leverage but I really meant "pen/figure it out." Pen roles have a way of working themselves out with pitchers moving to where they are most needed and suited.

I never thought Bard was a starter. His biggest weakness as a reliever was not being able to repeat his delivery at times and the notion that he could master that over 5-8 innings seemed like fantasy to me. It's not as if he had any success as a starter as a professional. When you add those realities to his reduced velocity as a starter, I think this becomes relatively straightforward.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 03 June 2012 - 03:18 PM.

[OttoC]

Young, cheap...trade him. There undoubtedly will be many teams who feel they could resurrect Bard and he should bring a good return in minor-league talent.

[Adrian's Dome]

Young, cheap...trade him. There undoubtedly will be many teams who feel they could resurrect Bard and he should bring a good return in minor-league talent.

You don't sell him at his all-time low point in value.

Bullpen, low leverage was my vote. You put him back there and see if he regains his velocity. If he doesn't, then DL/Pawtucket.

[Toe Nash]

Could you or someone else elaborate on this history? There was debate in the game thread as to whether or not this may be a head issue with Bard, but the idea that he's fallen apart for non-physical/health reasons before did not come up, so I'd be interested in hearing more about this.

He used different mechanics when he started in single-A from those he had as a college pitcher, a reliever or those he's using this year. If it's a head thing causing him to lose fastball command, why did he not do so in 4 of his first 5 starts this year? Or in college?

The PitchFX stuff in the What Should We Expect from Daniel Bard thread show that since May he's been pretty inconsistent with his release points which imply either a mechanical or physical issue. I leave it to the PitchFX experts to analyze them closely but there's very real evidence that he's throwing differently recently (his velocity is also WAY down from his first few starts) and I don't think the psychological explanation is valid unless we get something more that points that way beyond armchair psychiatric evaluation via the TV.

[Toe Nash]

Young, cheap...trade him. There undoubtedly will be many teams who feel they could resurrect Bard and he should bring a good return in minor-league talent.

This is a bad idea. He's at a low point in value (what are teams really going to offer right now?) and at the least you'd expect he could be re-made into the excellent high-leverage reliever that he used to be, which is pretty valuable to the Sox.

[RoDaddy]

This is very reminiscent of his time in the minors, no control, hitting batters walks everywhere. He completely lost confidence and nearly ended his career before it started.
Given he was rescued and turned into a weapon, which took some time, they need to pull the plug ASAP. Whatever the reason he's shown he can't be the same pitcher as a starter get him down to AAA and into the bullpen.

This was my first concern when I heard he was was going back to starting - that he was a complete failure as a starter after being drafted due mainly to wildness (I remember him having more walks than IPs in addition to an atrocious ERA). At that time, he looked like one of-, if not the-, worst first round draft choices in the history of the club at the time. The switch to the bullpen miraculously and inexplicitedly changed things overnight. So there had to be some concern that this could happen again as a starter. That said, this is 5 years down the road, most of it successful even if it was out of the pen, so you'd expect that he's matured a lot since being drafted. So I understood that it was still reasonable to give him a shot as starter. Maybe it's the full wind-up?

I vote to give him until the All star break to turn things around.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I voted other -- as soon as Matsuzaka's ready, the Sox should option Bard, keeping him in a starting role. No DL is necessary.

I still think it's too soon to give up on him developing into a starter, but there's a reason most pitchers are developed in the minors.

[JimBoSox9]

I voted other -- as soon as Matsuzaka's ready, the Sox should option Bard, keeping him in a starting role. No DL is necessary.
I still think it's too soon to give up on him developing into a starter, but there's a reason
most pitchers are developed in the minors.

I think that's something that could go down the wrong way. This isn't a Melancon situation, Bard's been a big part of this team for a couple years. Using the DL to get him some AAA time allows face-saving all around.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If you send him to the pen, what's the long term plan? Try again next year, or reliever for good? If its the latter, I don't see the point as Bailey, Aceves, and perhaps Melancon are the short and long term solutions. I think you have to do nothing, or DL him and try again in a few weeks. If the Sox are ready to give up on him as a starter, then they probably should explore his trade value, as it's difficult to envision a situation where he's moved to the pen now, yet returns at some point and becomes an effective Red Sox starter.

[redsox2020]

I was 110% in favor of giving Bard his shot as a starter, but he hasn't done much with it. Barring other injuries to the rotation, it looks like he has to be the odd man out when Matsuzaka comes back. He won't be one of our 5 best starters. And the way our pen is looking, he may not deserve to pitch there either. As painful as the Melancon route would be, we can't afford to carry guys who don't perform when we have alternatives who do.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

This was my first concern when I heard he was was going back to starting - that he was a complete failure as a starter after being drafted due mainly to wildness (I remember him having more walks than IPs in addition to an atrocious ERA). At that time, he looked like one of-, if not the-, worst first round draft choices in the history of the club at the time. The switch to the bullpen miraculously and inexplicitedly changed things overnight. So there had to be some concern that this could happen again as a starter. That said, this is 5 years down the road, most of it successful even if it was out of the pen, so you'd expect that he's matured a lot since being drafted. So I understood that it was still reasonable to give him a shot as starter. Maybe it's the full wind-up?

I vote to give him until the All star break to turn things around.

It was neither miraculous nor inexplicable. He went back to his college mechanics at that same point and suddenly looked like the guy they drafted again. I think the explanation is pretty clear.

[mt8thsw9th]

It was neither miraculous nor inexplicable. He went back to his college mechanics at that same point and suddenly looked like the guy they drafted again. I think the explanation is pretty clear.

Who was a sub-9 K/9 guy with mixed results in college. I liked the idea that he could suddenly develop into a good starter, but I have to say I was just fantasizing (as were others) that you could extrapolate his one inning performances over 6+. It's time to mercifully end this experiment. He's not a starter.

Edited by mt8thsw9th, 03 June 2012 - 04:13 PM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Who was a sub-9 K/9 guy with mixed results in college. I liked the idea that he could suddenly develop into a good starter, but I have to say I was just fantasizing (as were others) that you could extrapolate his one inning performances over 6+. It's time to mercifully end this experiment. He's not a starter.

If it turns out that he's not hurt, then I would agree. Some guys make good or great relievers but can't translate it to the rotation. If Bard is healthy, he appears to fall into that category.

[xjack]

I was 110% in favor of giving Bard his shot as a starter, but he hasn't done much with it. Barring other injuries to the rotation, it looks like he has to be the odd man out when Matsuzaka comes back. He won't be one of our 5 best starters. And the way our pen is looking, he may not deserve to pitch there either. As painful as the Melancon route would be, we can't afford to carry guys who don't perform when we have alternatives who do.

Agree 100%. Giving him a shot at starting was smart, but it's just not working out. Now is the time to him to the pen. Padilla can be the 5th starter until DiceK or Alex Wilson or even Billy Buckner shows he's better.

[MikeM]

If you send him to the pen, what's the long term plan? Try again next year, or reliever for good? If its the latter, I don't see the point as Bailey, Aceves, and perhaps Melancon are the short and long term solutions.

I voted bullpen/low lev.

The long term plan being to completely ditch the starter concept, and an attempt to eventually work him back to what should have been square 1 of this equation to begin with. Well, before the reality surfaced this winter that suggested we had spent ourselves into a "can't spend an extra couple million on a better option" hole, which in turn seemingly created a tidal wave of (arguably) overly-optimistic projections on just what we should be expecting to happen here while essentially being forced down the alternative route.

Melancon is still a question mark at the MLB level, and Bard's potential as a back end bullpen guy is still higher then any of those 3 imo. Shoot for the dominant 1-2 punch with Bard/Bailey in 2013, and probably give Aceves a rotation crack down the road once Bard gets back to where he needs to be. If that leaves a surplus of bullpen arms after some of these potential regressions on the horizon hit home, then you deal one or two outside that core to help strengthen other areas of need.

[Dick Pole Upside]

If Dice-K has one more good start (or maybe two) in Pawtucket, bring him up, DL Bard and let Bard continue to be starter...in Pawtucket. That'll buy you time to sort this out, make Dice-K a more attractive trade target (giving you another possibility) and let Bard continue to learn how to be a starter without screwing up the season for his teammates. Bard is not just struggling here, he's regressing to a has-been with every start. He needs some help. Give it to him.

This is where I'm at.

I'm a little tired of the "I'm trying some new things... I'm learning something new each start" baloney. He's had 3 1/2 months of formal training and in-game experience (not to mention any off-season work that may have been geared towards starting), and is going backwards. I appreciate the club acceding to his wishes to try starting. He's hurting the team at this point. Give him a choice: if you want to continue starting, go "learn some new things" on someone else's time and dime (i.e. Pawtucket). If you want to play with the big boys, go back to the 'pen and let 'er rip. Dice, Cook, even Ohlendorf (if they can get him back) can pitch just as effectively in the 5-hole.

[mikeford]

I'm in the "Other: optioned to AAA to remain a starter" camp

[deconstruction]

I voted with the current plurality (DL and spend some time starting in Pawtucket). Again, today, he topped out at 93 and most of his fastballs were sub-92 with no control--and this is to start the game. I'm very skeptical, at this point, that he would even be able to throw 95-98 with good control for 10-20 pitches in a bullpen role. Who serves a precedent for such a precipitous drop in velo and and loss of control from pen to starter without some kind of injury?

I agree that right now he's not working out as a starter, but we don't know the cause of his struggles, and I think those should be explored through some time in Pawtucket (either with time on the DL or not).

[OttoC]

I'll rephrase that: Put him on the market to see what the offers are. It's not like it's a panic move and I'll bet there are a few teams out there that would place a good value on him. If you don't get an offer you consider appropriate, don't make the trade.

[Pumpsie]

I think that barring a trade for a quality starting pitcher involving Youks and one of our relievers, putting Bard into the bullpen is the last thing you want to do right now because then you lose a reliever...and they're all doing well. I don't see this F.O. losing a quality pitcher after they've shown how much they hate that, even highly questionable pitchers like Thomas (especially after they've let Ohlendorf go.) It's either going to be a) stay the course, or b) send Bard to AAA to either remain a starter or shift over the bullpen.

I think the reason the Sox haven't done anything to this point has to do with timing... there's the possibility of trading Youks (and moving one of our excess relievers with him), they're waiting for Dice-K to get ML ready (and he seems still a start or two away), and then there's what's going to happen with Pedroia and all the rest of the fallen wounded when they return and what that's going to mean for both the 25 and 40-man rosters. If Youks gets traded, I'll bet something happens with Bard around the same time.

[JimBoSox9]

I think if you move Bard to the pen, it means you're permanently giving up on him starting, at least as a Red Sox. It's just the Joba treatment otherwise. To a certain extent, this is what we signed up for - no one ever said the transition would be without bumps.

I voted stay the course, FWIW...it feels a little disingenuous to be heavily pro-Bard-starting in the spring (as I was) and be off the bandwagon already. The trendlines haven't been promising since his first five starts, his mechanics are very clearly a mess at the moment, but the need in the bullpen isn't so great. He had 20 or so starts on his meter coming into the season, and thats what he gets to pull his shit together.

[someoneanywhere]

I don't like his postgame comments one bit. They suggest to me that whatever needs figuring out ain't gonna get figured out at the major keague level.

DL him. Resurrect the dominant bullpen arm while "rehabbing" in the bushes.

And see what you have after the ASB.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

I voted "Stay the course" even though I was opposed to the idea of making Bard a starter from the get-go. But I also believe that once a decision is made, you need to commit to seeing it through. Today's performance was horrific, obviously, but that sort of thing happens. Bard's previous outing was good enough that he could credibly express the wish afterward to be allowed to go deeper into games. Overall, he's been an OK No. 5 starter. At this point, I don't see a reason to pull the plug. If he continues to struggle until Matsuzaka gets back, then it would be appropriate to show some flexibility and send him back to the pen, or the "phantom DL" at that point.

I don't foresee him breaking out and becoming a front-of-the-rotation starter, however. But I still believe he could again be an elite late-inning reliever. I hope this ill-advised experiment is reversed next season and Bard fulfills his potential in the bullpen.

[Reverend]

He used different mechanics when he started in single-A from those he had as a college pitcher, a reliever or those he's using this year. If it's a head thing causing him to lose fastball command, why did he not do so in 4 of his first 5 starts this year? Or in college?

The PitchFX stuff in the What Should We Expect from Daniel Bard thread show that since May he's been pretty inconsistent with his release points which imply either a mechanical or physical issue. I leave it to the PitchFX experts to analyze them closely but there's very real evidence that he's throwing differently recently (his velocity is also WAY down from his first few starts) and I don't think the psychological explanation is valid unless we get something more that points that way beyond armchair psychiatric evaluation via the TV.

To clarify, I of course think that there is something mechanical wrong; I don't think he's choosing to miss the strike zone; we have clear data on release point, for example, showing there are mechanics issues. What I mean is are the mechanical problems in some way connected to what's going on in his head as can so often be the case, or is his head unrelated and the mechanical problem is solely in his arm being unable to repeat the motion, something in his delivery, etc.

A tennis coach some years ago told me (Ed. Note: A girl said, "Hey, we should take tennis classes," and so I took tennis classes.) that a great way to mess with a guy in a groove was to be like, in the guise of looking up to him and asking advice, asking him to show you how he grips the racket on a certain stroke. Nothing like getting him to think about his grip when he's in a groove to mess it up. So when I wonder if Clay's Bard's problem is being a headcase, I mean that being the source of mechanical problems as opposed to having a delivery inappropriate to his frame, injury, etc.

We know for a fact that he's thinking about it, given his comments, conversations with coaches, etc. That he's pitched from the stretch without runners on in multiple games and changed whether or not he uses the wind-up during the course of a game further underscores that he's thinking about it. Is it affecting him? I dunno. But if there is a history of something with his head affecting his pitching in the past, that seems potentially interesting.

[aksoxfan]

I did not think he was going to work out as a starter. Back to the pen, DL, or Pawtucket. I don't care as long he is out of the starting rotation.

[maufman]

If you believe that Buchholz has turned the corner, then you know that a player who has ceased to show any semblance of big-league competence can get his groove back suddenly and without explanation. Perhaps Bard can do the same; given the dearth of attractive options until Dice-K is ready to return, it makes sense to give Bard a little more time. On the other hand, if you're not ready to sound the "all clear" on Buchholz yet, then you should also leave Bard in the rotation -- because he might be one of our top 5 guys even when Dice-K returns.

I voted "stay the course," but Bard is clearly on a short leash. After Bard's start next Saturday, the Sox could go without a fifth starter until June 24th if need be. Bard is unlikely to be as bad as he was today in his next start, but if he is, I think you have to pull the plug. At that point, I'd be inclined to put the decision to Bard -- tell him that if he wants to continue to work as a starter, the club will support him, but he has to go to Pawtucket and get straightened out there (presumably in connection with a DL stint to keep his service clock from stopping). If he's ready to give up and return to the bullpen, I'm fine with that too.

[bosockboy]

His velocity screams that his shoulder is likely hamburger. DL him and figure out if he's healthy or not. I'd rehab him as a reliever with the long term goal to move him this winter.

[LondonSox]

Could you or someone else elaborate on this history? There was debate in the game thread as to whether or not this may be a head issue with Bard, but the idea that he's fallen apart for non-physical/health reasons before did not come up, so I'd be interested in hearing more about this.

In Lancaster in 2007 he just totally lost it. He complained about the stadium being crazy (which to be fair it was) and just lost all his confidence. Look at his numbers.
13.1 ip
22bb 23 r though only 15 were earned.
5 wild pitches

All I can find on my recollection of his state of mind is some references to Lancaster wind being a joke and that everyone should ignore the stats of players there. I remember on sox prospects a lot of talk of defeated body language and that he hinted in an interview his injury was a blessing.

Edit
I also recall people saying he started throwing over to first constantly like he didn't want to pitch but I can't find confirmation. I did find this from an old interview in 2008 after he was pitching great in the bullpen

DL: How much of your success this season can be attributed to the mechanical changes, and how much to the mental side of your game?
DB: I'd say it's 50/50. I did have mechanical issues to take care of, and once those were taken care of it was a matter of getting my confidence back, the feeling that I'm better than every hitter that I'm going to face. I feel that now, and I think that's how you have to feel to pitch in the big leagues. At this point I think it's more the mental; the physical is something that you just have to keep in tune every day. You need to keep the feel for your offspeed pitches, and keep the feel for your fastball, and once you're out there it's competition. You're competing against the hitter and trying to find a way to get him out, and part of that battle is won in your head.

Edited by LondonSox, 03 June 2012 - 08:50 PM.

[Jinhocho]

He should have never been converted to a starter this year.

It sucks to be proven right on this.

[TomRicardo]

I think you move him out the rotation as soon as you are ready to move with Daisuke. Though Aceves finally settled into the closer role, I really think he should have been the fifth starter. I don't think Bard to the rotation was ever a baseball move as much as PR move. There were warning signs in through spring training and things have only gotten worse.

With Doubront working out so far there really isn't room to play games with Bard anymore. He isn't a useful starting pitcher now and he doesn't really have a spot to try in the future.

[Doctor G]

He is dangerous to both the opponents and his own teammates right now. Tough for the Sox to dig in when Bard is unable to avoid plunking the opponents.

Maybe he should go to Fort Myers for a mechanics overhaul.

[drbretto]

I don't know why anyone is surprised he is struggling as a starter. He hasn't had any success as a starter and suddenly became dominant when made into a reliever. They took their best reliever, tried to make him into a mediocre starter and have probably messed him up for the year, if not turned him into Andrew Miller (hopefully if they did, the cure is the same).

I get the reasons behind the experiment. And I understand the notion that getting 180 innings out of your better pitchers is better than 60, but some people are starters and some people are relievers. When his success directly coincides with the move to the bullpen, even if you think there's the slightest possibility of a chance that he's simply matured as a pitcher and might be able to handle the switch, I just don't see how it makes sense on a risk/reward basis to do so on a contending team in the middle of the best division in baseball.

It was a bad idea with a small chance of working out great and a 100% chance of losing one of the best relievers on the team. Considering that at the time the decision was made, it was more likely that the bullpen was going to need the help more than the rotation, the decision looks even dumber to me.

I misread the poll and voted for high-lev bullpen, but what I meant there was that was ultimately where I would like them to get him to. For the short term, I agree with those who are saying to send him down when Daisuke comes up. Get him back into a relief role and hope he can reclaim his setup role before the end of the year.

Edited by drbretto, 04 June 2012 - 12:21 AM.

[reggiecleveland]

It was a curious move all through the spring. Though people laughed at the reports from the press that said Bard wanted to be a starter to ear more money, there may be something to Bard wanting to give it a shot. It seemed like Aceves was the better choice and Bailey's injury gave them a perfect way to make the move by making Bard the closer. I can't see how Dice doesn't get a shot at Bard's spot once he is ready.

[Adrian's Dome]

For those wondering who can get Bard's starts in the meantime, how about Morales for one or two before Matsuzaka comes back? He looked formidable against the Jays for multiple innings today, and although he isn't stretched out to the point of being able to give you 7+, he could go four or five. Piggyback him with Atch or Padilla. He's a fungible asset in the bullpen, someone that's nice to have at times, but he isn't an integral piece with Miller and Hill both pitching well. He also has experience starting in the past. You can DL Bard, bring up Melancon, and start Morales.

If you stretch him out a bit he could also be used to potentially spell Doubront's innings down the road.

I'm not one of the people worried about the roster crunch and having too many pitchers and not enough spots. We've learned a million times over that these things always work themselves out in the end.

Edited by Adrian's Dome, 04 June 2012 - 01:28 AM.

[Eric Van]

It's interesting to think how different this conversation might be if Bard hadn't have had once-in-season bad BABIP luck in his first start (the Jays were 5 for 5 on ground balls with runners on base (6 for 10 overall), none of them particularly well hit). Because no one who watched that start and mentally factored out the BABIP luck as it was happening can think this was a bad idea, or that there's nothing wrong with him. It was basically Bard the reliever, but throwing 96 pitches. He had 17 swinging strikes, which is a higher percentage than Justin Verlander has managed in his last 30 starts going back to last mid-June.

Here's the way the first start could easily have gone, with somewhat good luck instead of terribly bad:

53, P6, 9
53, 63, K
63, K, 3U
1B, 463 DP, K
1B, 8, 463 DP
K, 53, 7
K, L4, K
63, BB, 643 DP

8 2 0 0 1 6, 3 GDP, minimum BFP.

It wasn't that good (more like 7 3 0 0 1 6 or even 6.2 4 1 1 1 6) but it was a lot closer to that than his actual line was ... and people might consider how the entire conversation would be different, not just here but in the media, if any of those much more likely outcomes had happened.

[Eric Van]

OK, we're back, but all votes got wiped away. I am a posting disaster today.

Make up for it by adding another question (we don't need two Bard poll threads):

What's wrong with Bard?

Something physical (injury)
Dead arm that he can pitch through
Something merely mechanical
Something psychological
One of the above, but who knows which?
Not sure if anything is
Nothing, he just can't start

[Adrian's Dome]

It's interesting to think how different this conversation might be if Bard hadn't have had once-in-season bad BABIP luck in his first start (the Jays were 5 for 5 on ground balls with runners on base (6 for 10 overall), none of them particularly well hit). Because no one who watched that start and mentally factored out the BABIP luck as it was happening can think this was a bad idea, or that there's nothing wrong with him. It was basically Bard the reliever, but throwing 96 pitches. He had 17 swinging strikes, which is a higher percentage than Justin Verlander has managed in his last 30 starts going back to last mid-June.

Here's the way the first start could easily have gone, with somewhat good luck instead of terribly bad:

53, P6, 9
53, 63, K
63, K, 3U
1B, 463 DP, K
1B, 8, 463 DP
K, 53, 7
K, L4, K
63, BB, 643 DP

8 2 0 0 1 6, 3 GDP, minimum BFP.

It wasn't that good (more like 7 3 0 0 1 6 or even 6.2 4 1 1 1 6) but it was a lot closer to that than his actual line was ... and people might consider how the entire conversation would be different, not just here but in the media, if any of those much more likely outcomes had happened.

This is ridiculous. What's the purpose of implying that Bard had bad BABIP luck in one start? This isn't a case of a pitcher who's not walking anyone and missing a ton of bats giving up a few consecutive bleeders with runners in scoring position, we're talking about a decent sample size of starts overall. Bard has a 1.62 WHIP on the season and has walked more batters than he's struck out. He's lucky to only have a 5.24 ERA on the year, it could very easily be a hell of a lot worse. Are they shiny advanced stats? No, but they tell the story well enough that you don't need to go cherry-picking anything else to try and sugar coat what is an obvious statement: he's been flat-out awful. Nobody knows the exact reason why, but I guarantee you that bad BABIP luck in his first start isn't it.

[TheoShmeo]

This is ridiculous. What's the purpose of implying that Bard had bad BABIP luck in one start? This isn't a case of a pitcher who's not walking anyone and missing a ton of bats giving up a few consecutive bleeders with runners in scoring position, we're talking about a decent sample size of starts overall. Bard has a 1.62 WHIP on the season and has walked more batters than he's struck out. He's lucky to only have a 5.24 ERA on the year, it could very easily be a hell of a lot worse. Are they shiny advanced stats? No, but they tell the story well enough that you don't need to go cherry-picking anything else to try and sugar coat what is an obvious statement: he's been flat-out awful. Nobody knows the exact reason why, but I guarantee you that bad BABIP luck in his first start isn't it.

Bingo.

Bard is trying to learn how to be a professional starter in Boston, has trouble repeating his delivery and has performed demonstrably worse as a starter than he did as a reliever. There's no need to over-analyze this.

Whether it's moving to the pen (though I reluctantly take Cafardo's point that there's no obvious guy to bump, especially after what Morales did yesterday), diagnosing Bard with Hellenic Flu or just telling Bard that he's going to have to figure it out in the minors, as soon as the Sox have a viable option to replace Bard, he needs to get moved out of the rotation.

Is Matsuzaka ready? Can they flip Youks for a better starting pitcher who is ready now? To me, those questions are a lot more relevant than a BABIP based explanation for Bard's ineffectiveness or anything else that tries to make the obvious complicated.

[Dick Pole Upside]

I also don't like all the "we" excuse-making, as in "perhaps WE'VE changed too many things...". Daniel, it was your desire to be a starter, it was your desire not to pitch in the 'pen anymore. Stop inferring others are to blame for your suckage. If the ball is in your hands, then you are in total control (pardon the pun).

With no objective data to support, I also think his desire to tinker pitch-to-pitch is a reason why he wouldn't be a good closer, and was in the perfect role to suit his talents. His head/make-up (at least at present) make him skittish as a closer, as opposed to the single-minded ("I ams what I am, and thats alls that I am") Aceves. High-leverage reliever, no margin for error as a bridge to the closer, no pressure to close out the game. Seems to be that's what Bard "ams".