26 replies to this topic

[betheriver]

I'm curious to see what people have to say about this guy. He obviously isn't as good as he has been the past few weeks, but he seems to be gaining confidence at the plate, and if he continues might make it hard to send him down when other guys get healthy. Is he better than Darnell? While I certainly don't see him starting everyday when Ellsbury comes back, he might be good enough to stick with the big club, although I'm not sure what will happen if he isn't playing every day.

Thought from people smarter than me appreciated.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

Why do you mention him not starting when Ellsbury gets back? When and if Ellsbury returns I would DFA Byrd and the outfield should be Nava, Ellsbury, and Sweeney vs righties. With a leftie on the mound you would play around with RF, maybe playing Adrian Gonzalez, Pods, or McDonald when he returns.

The more interesting question is what to do when Crawford is healthy. If Crawford returns before Ellsbury then I would be sorely tempted to try him in CF so that Nava can still play. If Crawford comes back and continues to play as poorly as he did last season then Bobby V will have his biggest decision as a manager. Will he bench a guy who makes 20M a year?

I keep expecting Nava to come back to earth, but so far its not happening.

[MakMan44]

The more interesting question is what to do when Crawford is healthy. If Crawford returns before Ellsbury then I would be sorely tempted to try him in CF so that Nava can still play. If Crawford comes back and continues to play as poorly as he did last season then Bobby V will have his biggest decision as a manager. Will he bench a guy who makes 20M a year?

He's shown surprising willingness to find room for Middlebrooks to play; granted that has a lot to do with Adrian's playing right field and being ok with it but still Bobby's been pretty good about trying to keep the best bats in the lineup, Punto aside.

[betheriver]

Why do you mention him not starting when Ellsbury gets back? When and if Ellsbury returns I would DFA Byrd and the outfield should be Nava, Ellsbury, and Sweeney vs righties. With a leftie on the mound you would play around with RF, maybe playing Adrian Gonzalez, Pods, or McDonald when he returns.

The more interesting question is what to do when Crawford is healthy. If Crawford returns before Ellsbury then I would be sorely tempted to try him in CF so that Nava can still play. If Crawford comes back and continues to play as poorly as he did last season then Bobby V will have his biggest decision as a manager. Will he bench a guy who makes 20M a year?

I keep expecting Nava to come back to earth, but so far its not happening.

I didn't make it clear but I meant what would happen when Ellsbury and Crawford get back... I wouldn't take current Nava over Sweeney but would probably start him over Ross. If everyone gets healthy and contributes there are going to be some tough decisions coming down the road. I don't believe Crawford will be benched no matter how poorly he plays. If Youk doesn't get traded there is going to be quite a crowd trying to get onto the field.

[alwyn96]

He's shown surprising willingness to find room for Middlebrooks to play; granted that has a lot to do with Adrian's playing right field and being ok with it but still Bobby's been pretty good about trying to keep the best bats in the lineup, Punto aside.

Yeah, he's pretty much stuck with Punto. He's basically the only other middle infielder on the team. But now it's HR-threat Punto!

Nava will come back down to earth, but he's always been kind of tweener. He's a good enough hitter to be on a big league team, not quite good enough to be a good starting corner OF, but not good enough defensively to be a 4th OF (the kind of guy who should be able to cover CF in a pinch). He could probably start for some non-contenders looking to save money, or be a useful NL 3rd-4th OF. He's not the type of guy you worry about making playing time for if there are better options around.

I'd love to see him continue to hit (and walk! He could teach Middlebrooks a little about taking a pitch) like crazy, but it's hard to read much into a hot 3 weeks from a career minor-leaguer.

Edited by alwyn96, 02 June 2012 - 04:49 PM.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

When I look at the statistics for LF on Fangraphs Nava does not come up because he does not have enough plate appearances to qualify. If he were listed in the mix for LF in all of baseball he would be:

Tied for 9th in WAR at 1.4.
4th in wOBA at.422
1st in OBP at .444
6th in SLG at .543
6th in ISO at .229

He only has 90 PA, so like I've said before, I expect him to come back to earth, but if he doesn't then Bobby V has some tough decisions ahead.

[Rovin Romine]

Well, the thing that gets me is all the people we have coming back. . .it's like musical chairs with 8 men out instead of just one.

I love Nava's story and production this year, but he's actually Way down on a healthy roster's depth chart.

If we look forward into the season, at some point before our final 30 games (AL East Fest) we have the following list of potential outfielders, with enough time for all of them to possibly heal up:

Ellsbury
Crawford
Ross
Sweeney
*
Podsednik
*
Gonzales
Youkilis
Nava
Byrd
McDonald
Repko
Lin
Anderson

Assuming no trades, and that everyone is fully healthy and stretched out with good minor league rehab assignments, I think my list is in the likely order of play.

From a defensive perspective, CF is manned by Ellsbury, with Crawford/Ross/Sweeney able to play there. Crawford holds down LF, Ross/Sweeney holds down right, with the alternate being available for PH/4th OF duties.

If you carry a fifth outfielder, I think you'd go for offense under ideal circumstances. Ellsbury/Crawford/Ross/Sweeney isn't exactly a defensive nightmare, no matter how you mix and match them (although Crawford's arm is the weakest element in considering their collective defense). I don't really see taking any of them out of a game for a plus defender but a minus bat (Lin, etc.). And with one of Ross/Sweeney sitting, you can pinch hit the other to get a handedness split advantage and just leave them in the game.

The only really "plus" bat you might put in as a PH (handedness aside) for any of our top four OFs, is one of the Youkilis/Ortiz/Gonzales/Middlebrooks combo, depending on whomever is not playing that day. (Remember, no Gonzo in the OF, since we're assuming perfect health, and since you start your best handedness matchups, and the opposing team brings in an alternatively handed/split pitcher, you're always going to have one viable pinch hitter on the bench in the M.O.G.Y. combo.

If you're considering carrying a fifth outfielder, Nava has the overall superior bat among the "natural" outfielders options. He's not embarrassingly bad with lefties (.700ish OPS) but crushes righties. However, you'd only really pinch hit him in a handedness matchup after Ross/Sweeney were already used for such, which puts him second on the OF pinch hitter depth chart.

If you're looking for the best bat off the bench, you'll probably have one of the Youkilis/Ortiz/Gonzales/Middlebrooks combo available at any given point. Unless Gonzales is playing OF, in which case on a fully healthy team you'd have Ross/Sweeney sitting on the bench for that game.

So, for a 5th outfielder, you're looking at a pinch runner/defensive replacement. That means Posednik is clearly the better 5th outfielder option than Nava, largely because those two PR/defense probably does not depend on regular playing time as much as batting does. (Meaning Nava used every 3rd game might be a very different Nava at the plate, to say nothing of Nava as a PH only. . .)

***
But leaving the ideal scenario aside, I think injuries or underperformance will keep Nava in the mix for a long while.

The M.O.G.Y. situation has to be addressed, as Gonzales in RF is not a season long solution. Barring a possible WMB drop-off, or an injury to Ortiz or Gonzales, Youkilis really has to be traded before the OF comes back. There's just no room for the four of them if you have a healthy OF. With the Sox being budget conscious, Youkilis' $12 will give them more flexibility in the type of player they get back in a trade and/or it might get them under the cap if they trade Youks for prospects. The budget/new draft rules will be the deciding factor I think.

It sounds weird but whether or not you're contending, ideally Ortiz is the one you trade (unless you're planning on bringing him back next year, and potential 2013 his arb value does not look to be trending downward at this point in the season). His production can be roughly replaced by healthy Youkilis who would be more likely to stay healthy at 1B or DH, Ortiz is more expensive, and Ortiz would be an instant ticket seller for whomever trades for him, which would likely be a team in a GFIN mode (greater trade value than Youks). It'll never happen though, given Ortiz's popularity and production in Boston, so it seems Youks is on the block.

Once M.O.G.Y. is cleared up, Gonzales is no longer in the outfield. At that point, in order to displace Nava we'd need "ready to go" showings from Crawford or Ellsbury, (and to a lesser extent Ross). Somehow I expect one of them won't make it back fully this year.

***
Here's a weird but real possibility, given the uncertain nature of recovery from these types of injuries.

1) M.O.G.Y. gets resolved: Youks is traded (prospects)/WMB cools/random injury to Y/WMB/Ortiz/Gonzo.
2) Crawford never quite gets it together/has a setback with his wrist/elbow issues once he starts swinging/throwing.
3) Ellsbury never quite gets healthy/has a shoulder setback once he starts swinging/throwing.
4) Ross never quite gets healthy has a setback once he starts putting weight on his recently broken bone.

OF=s Sweeney in CF for righties, Lars in LF, Nava in RF, 4th OF is defensive/CF material (Byrd/Posednik/Lin)

I think this possibility is why the Sox haven't pulled the trigger on a Youks trade. They need to be confident in 1) Middlebrooks' staying power, 2) at least one of their big two outfielders coming back.

***
The only thing I'm really worried about is the front office "playing the money" and starting an injured/rusty Crawford or Ellsbury until they get "up to speed" or "adjusted" or whatever. Getting a .600-.700 OPS out of one of them for a month is also a very real possibility.

[BoredViewer]

As long as he's putting up a .900+ OPS - other than Ells... he's the 2nd best outfielder... until he isn't. If he slumps... those other guys will get their chances. If he doesn't - we've got a star outfielder. I could really care less where he's slotted on the "healthy" depth chart <-- and I would be surprised if the Sox see it the same way.

[Rovin Romine]

So, you're saying if plays like he's an amazingly awesome player he's an amazingly awesome player and if he doesn't then he's not? Amazing! Dude - pass me a beer. Sorry I wasted my time typing.

[alwyn96]

The only thing I'm really worried about is the front office "playing the money" and starting an injured/rusty Crawford or Ellsbury until they get "up to speed" or "adjusted" or whatever. Getting a .600-.700 OPS out of one of them for a month is also a very real possibility.

Baseball being baseball, getting a .600-.700 OPS out of almost anyone for a month is a very real possibility. A 650 OPS would be still be an improvement over Byrd (610 OPS), and Sweeney really crashed back to earth in May (599 OPS). Given the amount of time they've been out, I'm sure both Crawford and Ellsbury will go through full rehab stints in the minors, giving them time to get back into playing shape. I think Valentine's actually been pretty good about getting guys in there who can do the job. I mean, so far he's somehow getting very useful production out of Scott frickin' Podsednik - so I imagine if Crawford struggles we see a generous helping of Nava, assuming he's still hitting (probably a big assumption). Ellsbury's probably in there almost no matter what he's hitting, since even a struggling Ellbury's better than Byrd. You'd hope that if anyone were still injured that they wouldn't be out there, but of course this is the Red Sox, so you never know.

The importance of Crawford and Ellsbury really shouldn't be underestimated. Even if they struggle with the bats early, they are (or at least are capable of being) some of the best defenders in the league at their positions, and they ought to be a huge help to the pitching staff down the stretch.

Edited by alwyn96, 05 June 2012 - 12:10 AM.

[Rovin Romine]

Alwyn96,

You're absolutely right. I think a better way to state my concern would be that I'm worried about getting the equivalent of another 2010 Crawford in the form of an injured/hampered Crawford or Ells being run out month after month. If we had a healthy lead in the division and a real expectation our current starting 5 would be pitching effectively in Sept., it wouldn't bother me that much. I suspect that given our early injuries, weak start, and our current starting 5, that the season will come down to a handful of games.

I think these worries come from my Francona conditioning. Has BV dealt with a similar situation yet? This year so far has been about trying to get some kind of production out of slots decimated by injuries. And you're right in that BV/Cherrington have been very good about finding people inside and outside of the organization to effectively plug holes. Another thing I like is that if BV does not seem to have an actual in game use for a minor leaguer, he does not let them linger on the bench - they get sent back down relatively quickly.

[BoredViewer]

So, you're saying if plays like he's an amazingly awesome player he's an amazingly awesome player and if he doesn't then he's not? Amazing! Dude - pass me a beer. Sorry I wasted my time typing.

The takeaway is that I don't have a very high opinion of Crawford and that the rest of the group is pretty much fungible AAAA-quality players... if Nava drops back to that group, so be it.. if he plays at a level above, then he makes the decision for you. Sure - you can shake up the rest and sprinkle them through lineups to give rest - let the computer decide who and when.

[Rovin Romine]

Yeah, I ultimately agree with that. If we get into a situation where we have our starting 4 outfielders back and Nava plays himself into an option, well, that's be a very nice problem to have. I also am skeptical about Crawford's chances of significantly contributing this year. Hopefully he proves my skepticism misplaced.

[alwyn96]

Players playing better than you expect is not really a "problem". It's when they stink that the problems happen.

Crawford has the ceiling of a superstar-level player. He had a terrible year last year, but he has a history of good to excellent performance. He's not that old, he's always been in excellent shape, and he's not expected to carry the team. He'll be fresh and will have had time to strengthen and rehab, like Ellsbury after his lost 2010. He's in a great position to come back and succeed.

Those are my happy thoughts for the day.

[Alex18]

My question is why is there reluctance to play nava anywhere but left field? Is his defense that bad? If he keeps this up I can see him fighting for playing time in rf against righties with Sweeney

[Sports Illustrator]

He's had a nice little streak going, don't expect it to continue. There is a reason why he's 29 and this is his first real mlb experience.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

There is a reason why he's 29 and this is his first real mlb experience.

2010: 188PA .242/.351/.360

[Sports Illustrator]

He really struggles from the right side too, still gets his walks though.

Edited by Sports Illustrator, 10 June 2012 - 08:08 AM.

[betheriver]

So it's been a couple more weeks and Nava still shows no signs of cooling. I don't typically agree with D&C but if he keeps hitting this way, it creates a true problem when Crawford and Ellsbury return. I know there's no way Crawford gets benched for Nava, but an argument could certainly be made for it. Nava's numbers so far (SSS but growing) eclipse anything CC has done in a Sox uni. Unless Crawford returns to form, it seems a shame to reward Nava with a bench role or a bus back to Pawtucket.

I suppose the smart thing to do given the circumstances is to shop Nava as his value will probably never be higher, but I personally would love it as a fan to see Crawford have to EARN his job back.

[alwyn96]

So it's been a couple more weeks and Nava still shows no signs of cooling. I don't typically agree with D&C but if he keeps hitting this way, it creates a true problem when Crawford and Ellsbury return. I know there's no way Crawford gets benched for Nava, but an argument could certainly be made for it. Nava's numbers so far (SSS but growing) eclipse anything CC has done in a Sox uni. Unless Crawford returns to form, it seems a shame to reward Nava with a bench role or a bus back to Pawtucket.

I suppose the smart thing to do given the circumstances is to shop Nava as his value will probably never be higher, but I personally would love it as a fan to see Crawford have to EARN his job back.

Nave had a good game last night. Nava's only started 3 games in the past 2 weeks due to some injuries, the return of Ross and the brief, shocking competence of Scott Podsednik, so I'm not sure how much we can really read into his performance. He's been a really amazing pinch hitter, but his BABIP is still at 400 and he has little HR power. The dude can get on base though, which is a pretty sweet skill to have. It's hard to see how he fits on the team with the full OF back, particularly given his defensive liabilities, but he'd be a nice pinch hitter to have around.

[OnBase]

The contrast between 2011 Crawford and 2012 Nava is remarkable. Carl didn't just have a lousy year offensively, he didn't learn to play the wall. Nava isn't only having a great season so far offensively, he's playing the wall as smoothly as I've ever seen anyone play it. I don't trust fielding stats a whole lot, especially not a single season or half season, but for what it's worth Fangraphs does verify what I think I've seen.

Name G PA BB% K% wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
2012 Nava 34 128 14.8 % 17.2 % .423 166 3.3 0.7 1.8
2011 Crawford 130 539 4.3 % 19.3 % .304 83 -2.2 0.2 0.2

But of course the normal arc of player development and performance history says Nava will sit when Carl returns. I don't like it. Late bloomers happen, but in MLB they get put back on the bench. I would like to forgive Carl for 2011, but if he doesn't replace Nava's level of play, while Nava sits on the bench or goes back to AAA, I will not be a CC fan.

Edited by OnBase, 22 June 2012 - 07:44 AM.

[AcevesSaves]

I'll be interested with how Valentine plays it; the next few weeks are going to be rife with tough decisions. Nava has been playing well, and so has Kalish, and so has Ross. Ellsbury obviously will get in there somehow, but the problem is he won't be the first guy back. I have a feeling Valentine is going to make himself unpopular with quite a few Sox fans with whatever decision he makes.

[alwyn96]

I'll be interested with how Valentine plays it; the next few weeks are going to be rife with tough decisions. Nava has been playing well, and so has Kalish, and so has Ross. Ellsbury obviously will get in there somehow, but the problem is he won't be the first guy back. I have a feeling Valentine is going to make himself unpopular with quite a few Sox fans with whatever decision he makes.

A lot of this is on Cherington, too. The GM will make the roster decisions, and he's the one who has to make the toughest calls eg, the OF. Nava's defensive limitations really hurt him here. Between Crawford, Nava, Ross, Kalish and Sweeney (assuming Sweeney makes it successfully back from injury), Kalish is the only real CF, and Sweeney's the only one who can even fake it, at least one if not both of them would have to stay. There's certainly no place for McDonald, loyal organizational soldier, if Nava's going to stay. Carrying 5 OF is going to be difficult, particularly with Middlebrooks and Youkilis both on the roster, but given the way Valentine favors platoons, I think he could make it work, although it would probably lead to some suboptimal defensive situations late in games and higher leverage innings for your weakest relievers.

Of course, at the rate the Red Sox get injured, this probably all just works itself out anyway.

Edited by alwyn96, 22 June 2012 - 01:34 PM.

[AcevesSaves]

A lot of this is on Cherington, too. The GM will make the roster decisions, and he's the one who has to make the toughest calls eg, the OF. Nava's defensive limitations really hurt him here. Between Crawford, Nava, Ross, Kalish and Sweeney (assuming Sweeney makes it successfully back from injury), Kalish is the only real CF, and Sweeney's the only one who can even fake it, at least one if not both of them would have to stay. There's certainly no place for McDonald, loyal organizational soldier, if Nava's going to stay. Carrying 5 OF is going to be difficult, particularly with Middlebrooks and Youkilis both on the roster, but given the way Valentine favors platoons, I think he could make it work, although it would probably lead to some suboptimal defensive situations late in games and higher leverage innings for your weakest relievers.

Of course, at the rate the Red Sox get injured, this probably all just works itself out anyway.

Obviously, its fairly likely Youk will be traded, which lessens the difficulty of carrying 5 OF. The way Nava's been hitting certainly makes up for any defensive problems (especially considering that Nava has figured out how the play the Monster much better than Crawford did last year). Another plus to keeping him up is even if he regresses (like Reddick eventually did last year), we have four other outfielders, and more in the minors if there are injuries (which are likely).

I think at this point the outfield should be viewed as an embarrassment of riches - not something we need to be worrying too much about at this time.

[BoredViewer]

At this point it would be criminal to do anything other than start/leadoff Nava vs. RHP.

[jnlevetoncnmt]

At this point it would be criminal to do anything other than start/leadoff Nava vs. RHP.

With Crawford starting his minor league rehab, the Nava vs. Crawford debate is bound to heat up.

Crawford vs RHP has a career .812 OPS. He has .684 career OPS vs LHP.
Nava vs RHP has a career .861 OPS. He has a .665 career OPS vs LHP.

This season, however, Nava has a 1.084 OPS vs RHP, he is crushing it as a LHH vs RHP.

I have kept expecting Nava to come back down to earth, but even after his injury he just keeps on hitting. I wonder if Bobby and Ben are thinking of having Carl play some centerfield if he gets back before Ellsbury. If they plan on having Crawford replace Nava then I really, really hope that they make Crawford prove that he can dominate AAA pitching first. My fear is that Crawford will get to play due to that huge contract, not because he is better at baseball than lowly Daniel Nava.

[BoredViewer]

He may come down a bit... but I'm not sure it will be as much as some might expect. I figure this year... maybe next are probably the prime of his career. His minor league numbers do support the kind of season he is having, so far. I don't see it as all that unlikely he might be a .300 (avg) .400 (obp) .450 (slg) guy the next year or two.

Couldn't we have an outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury and Nava vs. RHP? If Gonzo can play out there....

* Just want to add... along the lines of what I said above - while he may be doing what he is doing at a rate higher than we expected, Nava isn't doing anything particularly surprising. It isn't like his value is being generated by some absurd power surge or he is running wild on the bases. He is walking and hitting for average (singles and doubles), just as he has done throughout the minors.

Edited by BoredViewer, 24 June 2012 - 11:14 PM.