35 replies to this topic

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

At this point I've concluded that Middlebrooks is Alfonso Soriano. A very useful player but by no means a cornerstone guy. Having said that, Youkilis was gone next year anyways so I think getting value for him now is probably fair. If LA would trade Kenley Jansen for him, I'd do that right now. The same would obvioulsy be true of James McDonald in Pittsburgh. However, I think reality is that we're likely only going to get prospects for him and I'd just assume wait until July when reinforcements start to come back.

[SaveBooFerriss]

At this point I've concluded that Middlebrooks is Alfonso Soriano.

That is not a very good comp. Soriano was a disaster in the field, but had much more speed.

Middlebrooks isn't walking much, but that doesn't mean his approach is terrible. Soriano hacked at everything.

[Rudy Pemberton]

WMB seems like a Russell Branyan, Dean Palmer, Tony Batista type; as opposed to Soriano.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

WMB is 23 years old with a .579 SLG and (currently) acceptable OBP and good defense (as long as you don't hit it over his head), and you've seen enough to conclude he's not a cornerstone guy? Interesting.

Obviously he's young and still developing, but it's not like his MLB approach is something new for him - he had a 7% bb% in the minors, and over 3 Ks for every walk (Soriano's is around 6% for his career). The low-OBP/high-SLG approach can still be quite useful, particularly if his fielding is solid (small-sample numbers hate him right now), and if your definition of "cornerstone" is "young, affordable starter" then yep, he's that. But the current model has serious flaws that portend a definite ceiling below "perennial All-Star".

And that's without getting into using a 24-game sample size coinciding with a .400 BABIP. We're kind of arguing semantics, but there's a definite chance the league catches up if his approach doesn't improve.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

And that's without getting into using a 24-game sample size coinciding with a .400 BABIP. We're kind of arguing semantics, but there's a definite chance the league catches up if his approach doesn't improve.

I think this is almost certain to happen if he doesn't improve either his contact rate (not sure there's any evidence that this is likely) or his patience (also not typical). His power will mean he stays a valuable player, but he's going to be streaky.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

For clarification, I meant that Middlebrooks is Soriano at the plate. Defensive comps are much harder to do across positions, but I haven't exactly been thrilled with Middlebrooks in the field either.

I think it's way too early to assume that Middlebrooks is going to keep up his current numbers, but I find it unrealistic to think he's going to hit much better than he's currently hitting. Soriano struck out 130+ times consistently in his career and was rarely willing to take a walk. I don't expect Middlebrooks to be as good as a healthy Youkilis for this year, but for next year and beyond it's not unreasonable to think that Middlebrooks will be able to outperform Youk. Factor in the cost of both players and it's completely unrealistic to expect Youkilis to be on the Red Sox next season.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I don't see who would blast WMB for being a comp to Soriano at all -- at his peak, that was a 4-6 WAR player.

I also don't see why anyone would look at WMB's MLB debut in light of his minor league career numbers, and then assume he would be any better than Soriano.

[SaveBooFerriss]

When he was in the minors, the best comp I heard for Middlebrooks was Joe Crede. I think that is reasonable.

Crede's career was killed by injuries. There is no reason to think Middlebrooks would have the same fate.

Edited by SaveBooFerriss, 01 June 2012 - 02:38 PM.

[JakeRae]

Finding comps for Middlebrooks is difficult as it seems to be rare to find someone with his BABIP skill (looking at his minor league history, not this year), as high a K% as he has, as low a BB%, and very good power. Almost every possible comp is missing at least one of those. Specifically, almost every player brought up here (I'd add Reddick and Pence to the list of possible comps although Reddick isn't particularly useful yet) has a pretty glaring way in which they are not like Middlebrooks. Specifically, it's incredibly rare to find someone who strikes out as much as Middlebrooks does who doesn't walk substantially more than he does (or someone who walks as little as he does but strikes out close to as much as he does). This either suggests that Middlebrooks is an extreme outlier in the relationship between these two aspects of his batting game or that as he develops, we should expect either his walk rate to rise significantly, his K rate to fall significantly, or some combination of the two.

I think we know a few things about Middlebrooks offensively right now.

• He walks very little. (Around 5.5% in the high minors without doing the math but just looking at the percentages and PA at each level. 4.0% MLB.)
• He strikes out a lot. (Around 25% in the high minors via the same method. 29.3% MLB.)
• He has very good power. (ISO around .300 this year between majors and AAA. .218 in AA last year and a clear upward trend over the last several years making his power early this year look a lot more like continued development than an outlier.)
• He has a BABIP skill. (Outside of SSS stretches, he's never had a BABIP below .300 and has more consistently been in the .350+ range.)
• He works the count well. (3.98 P/PA this year.)

All told, right now I think we have a guy capable of .280/.320/.530 or so even after he regresses, although there is substantial downside risk if my assumption of real BABIP skill is incorrect and he ends up closer to the ZiPS expectation of .254 for the remainder of the season. (I strongly believe ZiPS to be wrong about his expected power production and am not including that comparison point.) .260/.300/.460 is toward the lower end of my expectations for Middlebrooks. .300/.350/.580 is pretty much the top end of my expectations range. All of these numbers are forward looking and ignore his to date contributions.

[JakeRae]

When he was in the minors, the best comp I heard for Middlebrooks was Joe Crede. I think that is reasonable.

Crede's career was killed by injuries. There is no reason to think Middlebrooks would have the same fate.

Crede doesn't strike out close to as much as Middlebrooks nor does he have the power or BABIP skill Middlebrooks possesses. The only similarities are position and BB%.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Make no mistake - Alfonso Soriano is a good baseball player but he doesn't have a skillset that is popular today (i.e. low OBP). It seems that successful players with low OBP are becoming more rare. It doesn't mean they don't have value, but plate discipline has been stressed so much in the last 10 years that players that lack that skill are often overlooked.

Also, Youkilis isn't in the lineup tonight.

[bakahump]

Isnt it early to crucify the guy for his walk % or his K/BB?

In his first 100 MLB at bats we have determined that a fair comp is Russell Branyan?

The Russell Branyan whos K% has been as "low" as WMBs (rookie season) 2x times in his 14 year career?

I think another way of looking at it is that Branyans K% went down 5% from his rookie to his 2nd year.
Palmer 28%!! (even if you throw out the craziness it went down 7 more % from year 2 to 3)
Bautista went down 3.8%
Sorian 37% to 28%

If you want to look at BB/K
Branyan improved .16 to .29
Palmer .33 to .40
Bautista .39 to .45
Soriano .07 to .23

How would WMB look with a 23% K%? Or a 7% BB %? Or a .25 BB/K

Now I agree none of these numbers are "good" but for picking some of the most unabashed hackers of recent times they show a probability for improvement. Shouldnt it be fair to expect the similar improvement from WMB with more experience?

If we look at those 4 veterans combined MLB seasons (52 if my math is right) they have had 7 season with a better ISO% then WMB currently has.
In 52 seasons they have a better OBP then WMB 7 times. And a better SLG% twice.
wOBA? 1 season better then WMBs current. Out of 52 seasons. And these are guys who averaged .326 wOBAs for their Careers. (3B average for 2011 was an wOBA of .309)

Sure there are things to be concerned about. (BABIP cant stay at 400) and even a 5% improvement wont make him "good" in some of these catagories. Still I think its very short sighted to look at his weaknesses, compare him to players who had the opportunity to improve their same weaknesses to only be about on par to his rookie level while ignoring his strengths while also ignoring that he might even improve his weaknesses (as he has certainly done in the minors.)

Is WMB going to be an HOFer? No.
But I can see him easily being a 12-15 year MLB player with 3 or so All star games.

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

I agree with the posters wary of WMB's K/BB numbers.

There does seem to be a growing recognition amongst saber minds that players who don't walk much can still have significant value (i.e. Starlin Castro), but typically a player can't both forego walks and strikeout at a 30% clip while retaining value. WMB would have to maintain a very high slugging; perhaps he can.

One point I'm not sure I agree with on JakeRae's thoughtful post above is the idea that WMB has an established BABIP skill (as Jake acknowledges, it's far from certain). It seems that minor league BABIPs are often pretty elevated (subject to poorer field conditions, sub-par defense, etc.) and not entirely reliable/projectable. In any case, even a BABIP skill won't keep WMB at .400 (doesn't Jeter lead all active players at around .351?).

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Isnt it early to crucify the guy for his walk % or his K/BB?

These things were problems in his minor-league profile as well. From Goldstein's Top 11 this year at BPro:

The Bad: Middlebrooks has an impatient approach and is not an especially instinctual hitter, so there are concerns about his overall on-base package. He's slow out of the box and is a below-average runner.

[TomRicardo]

With a 21% LD percentage he is going to have a high BABIP.

[Sprowl]

WMB's comps came up in the thread on Youks on the block?, but I think it deserves its own thread.

***

I would not be too alarmed by WMB's very early K/BB ratio in the major leagues. Pitchers are throwing him lots of low changeups and sliders, and he's having some difficulty with pitch recognition and in gauging the bottom of the strike zone. He is making adjustments.

Middlebrooks is an interesting physical specimen with a very compact throwing motion, and the shortest, most compact power swing that I have seen since Jim Rice (how's that for a positive comp?). Once he gets more looks at major-league offspeed pitches, he has the tools to swing late when he needs to protect the plate.

[Super Nomario]

One possible comp: Dallas McPherson. McPherson walked a bit more in the minors (10.9% vs 7.5%) but struck out about the same (27.6% vs 26.3% for WMB), showed similar BABIP ability (.364 vs .358), and displayed even more power (.276 vs .178 ISO), though playing in the CAL / TL / PCL vs CAR / EL / IL has to help. Hopefully Middlebrooks has a better career ...

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

With a 21% LD percentage he is going to have a high BABIP.

But isn't league average 19-20%? I wouldn't think a 2% difference would drive BABIP all that much higher than normal.

Edit: It looks like the Mets lead the bigs with a team LD rate of 23.6, and the Blue Jays bring up the rear at 18.1. There are several teams in the 21-22 range. http://www.fangraphs...age=0&players=0

Edited by DaubachmanTurnerOD, 01 June 2012 - 05:39 PM.

[Eric Van]

Here's a thought: in a small sample of a hitter that pitchers are still learning how to pitch to, BB% is meaningless. What you really want to know is how he's hitting with 3 balls on him. I mean, you can't complain if he keeps on singling instead of taking ball four.

Some slash lines with 3 balls:

.291 / .619 / .591 - Papi, career
.278 / .611 / .491 - Youk, career
.249 / .558 / .420 - AL 2011
.471 / .571 / .529 - WMB

He's not walking because they're not respecting his rookie ass, and he's making them pay with a ton of singles that more than make up for the lack of walks, and almost bring him in line with what an elite hitter like Youk can accomplish.

[CaptainLaddie]

When he was in the minors, the best comp I heard for Middlebrooks was Joe Crede. I think that is reasonable.

Crede's career was killed by injuries. There is no reason to think Middlebrooks would have the same fate.

I hope not. Crede had a 92 OPS+ and .304 OBP in his career.

[deconstruction]

One possible comp: Dallas McPherson. McPherson walked a bit more in the minors (10.9% vs 7.5%) but struck out about the same (27.6% vs 26.3% for WMB), showed similar BABIP ability (.364 vs .358), and displayed even more power (.276 vs .178 ISO), though playing in the CAL / TL / PCL vs CAR / EL / IL has to help. Hopefully Middlebrooks has a better career ...

Looks like their SwStr% (McPherson: 19%; Middlebrooks: 11%) and Contact% (64% to 75%) are vastly different, so while their outcomes and batted ball profiles might be similar, Middlebrooks makes much more contact.

Some current players that might be good comps (high BABIP, below-average BB%, high K%, slightly-above-average SwStr%, high ISO):

Hunter Pence
Carlos Gonzalez
Adam Jones
Nelson Cruz

[Snodgrass'Muff]

He's not walking because they're not respecting his rookie ass, and he's making them pay with a ton of singles that more than make up for the lack of walks, and almost bring him in line with what an elite hitter like Youk can accomplish.

The issue isn't what he does with three ball counts, it's how often does he get to three balls (or actually walk). He's seen three balls 21 times so far. He's seen two strikes 52 times. He's been ahead in the count in 39 out of his 99 total PA's and been even or behind in 60.

The worry that he doesn't walk enough and strikes out too much extends well beyond his major league numbers. Of the 52 two strike counts he's face, he's struck out in 29 of them. When pitchers get ahead of him, they put him away far more often than not. People have been knocking him for it since well before he was called up. In fact, several posters were pretty vocal in predicting that he would not walk and would strike out a bunch when he first got called up.

He's been productive despite it, and what you've posted above is part of why. But let's not start dismissing the lack of walks as meaningless. It's a trend that goes back to his minor league lines.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 01 June 2012 - 06:00 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

How about Matt Williams for a comp?

[Al Zarilla]

How about Matt Williams for a comp?

That would be pretty awesome, especially if he could field like Matt. Matt's lifetime OBP was .317, but was that before the "awareness" of the importance of OBP?

[pjheff]

At this point I've concluded that Middlebrooks is Alfonso Soriano. A very useful player but by no means a cornerstone guy. Having said that, Youkilis was gone next year anyways so I think getting value for him now is probably fair. If LA would trade Kenley Jansen for him, I'd do that right now. The same would obvioulsy be true of James McDonald in Pittsburgh. However, I think reality is that we're likely only going to get prospects for him and I'd just assume wait until July when reinforcements start to come back.

How would Adrian Beltre compare? Obviously, WMB lacks the HOF talent that breaks into the majors at age 19, and no one is predicting a 2004 type of season, but the OBP / SLG splits seem to follow similar patterns.

While different positions and opposite sides of the plate, Josh Reddick has similar strengths and weaknesses. Of course, WMB's swing appears shorter, and no one predicted that JR would be on a pace to hit 44 HRs this season, but even anecdotally, the ball seems to jump off of their bats in the same way.

It's interesting that this thread should be introduced by someone with Scott Cooper in his name, as there were similar debates a generation ago between SCoop (of the warning track power) and John Valentin. Is Ryan Kalish more likely to make two All-Star teams or be out of the game at age 27?

[OttoC]

The argument once was that doubles by young players in the minor leagues was a good indication that home run power would follow. Cooper hit 45 doubles (along with 7 triples and 9 home runs) as a 20-year-old in the Carolina League.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Here's a thought: in a small sample of a hitter that pitchers are still learning how to pitch to, BB% is meaningless. What you really want to know is how he's hitting with 3 balls on him. I mean, you can't complain if he keeps on singling instead of taking ball four.

Some slash lines with 3 balls:

.291 / .619 / .591 - Papi, career
.278 / .611 / .491 - Youk, career
.249 / .558 / .420 - AL 2011
.471 / .571 / .529 - WMB

He's not walking because they're not respecting his rookie ass, and he's making them pay with a ton of singles that more than make up for the lack of walks, and almost bring him in line with what an elite hitter like Youk can accomplish.

Why would you ever expect this to continue, especially with an O-Swing 50% higher than Youk's?

[Al Zarilla]

Doug Glanville on Baseball tonight said that Middlebrooks' swing, short and compact, reminds him of Buster Posey. Actually, Posey's swing, which is a pretty one, is much longer. Just looking at tonight's homerun swing a few times, including slomo, the swing that came to mind was Nomar's. That would be a good thing. I also noticed that Middlebrooks' swing is a flat one, which keeps the bat in the zone longer, also a good thing. Stay hot Will.

[Bucknahs Bum Ankle]

The way Middlebrooks battled back in that at bat after getting to 0-2 on two splitters (one looking, one swinging) was impressive as well. He laid off the next splitter just off the corner* and then fouled off another splitter. He took a fastball outside to get to 2-2 and then put that pretty swing on a grooved fastball to knock it out deep to center.

* OK, maybe he got a bit lucky on pitch #3:

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Definitely interesting as they hadn't been calling that a strike against left handed batters at all but had gone outside the zone off that corner against righties a bit.




In the end it worked out, but he could certainly have been wrung up on that pitch. That said, he has displayed some truly impressive power this season. When he gets a hold of one it's usually crushed.

[Hendoo]

Gotta say this all sounds a lot like the talk in AZ when Mark Reynolds played for the D-backs.

Edited by Hendoo, 24 June 2012 - 05:11 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Gotta say this all sounds a lot like the talk in AZ when Mark Reynolds played for the D-backs.

Hugely different hitters, though. Reynolds is much more of an all-or-nothing, three-true-outcomes guy. Middlebrooks doesn't have Reynolds' patience, but he's a much better contact hitter.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 24 June 2012 - 07:14 PM.

[foulkehampshire]

SSS aside, some of Middlebrook's numbers seem to be trending in a better direction.

May (99 PA) K% 29.3% BB/K .14%
June (55 PA) K% 15.1% BB/K .38%

Improvement or just results of a BABIP fueled hot streak? Time will tell.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

SSS aside, some of Middlebrook's numbers seem to be trending in a better direction.

May (99 PA) K% 29.3% BB/K .14%
June (55 PA) K% 15.1% BB/K .38%

Improvement or just results of a BABIP fueled hot streak? Time will tell.

To ask a possibly ignorant question, what would BABIP have to do with his BB or K rates?

[foulkehampshire]

To ask a possibly ignorant question, what would BABIP have to do with his BB or K rates?

I'd imagine if one is hitting .360 over 55 PA there's going to be a somewhat natural drop in K%.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I'd imagine if one is hitting .360 over 55 PA there's going to be a somewhat natural drop in K%.

Sure, but how is BABIP responsible for that? The .360 stretch could be due to a drop in K rate, or it could be due to a spike in BABIP, or it could be some of each. But the BABIP spike doesn't produce the K rate drop, nor vice versa. You can't increase your BABIP by striking out less, nor can you decrease your K rate by having more balls drop in. They are independent contributors to BA.