307 replies to this topic

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I think the we should also look at the possibility that the Sox are not really contenders this year. Yes the East has tightened up by quite a bit and they are by no means out of it, but there are a lot of issues with this team, and the trade return for Youks is not going to fix all of them.

I don't really see what I would call "a lot" of issues with the team, though. The rotation needs work. Bard and Doubront will need replacements as they approach their innings limits. Matsuzaka should be filling one of those two spots and they need to figure out where the other replacement will come from. That's certainly an issue. Lester needs to remember he's a good pitcher. That's an issue. Beyond that, Beckett has been really good over his last four starts (2.20 ERA) and looks like he's found some consistency again. Buchholz has looked like a completely different pitcher in his last two starts. He's still, absolutely a question, but there's reason to be optimistic at least.

But outside of the rotation, things are pretty good. Even with all the injuries, this has been the second best offense in the AL. As they get healthier the chances they stay this good increase. The bullpen has been surprisingly good for quite a while now. Eventually Baily will displace Aceves as the closer and Bard will hopefully return to the pen, strengthening the back end significantly. Doubront looks like he could be a big bullpen addition as well.

Defensively this team has been solid, even with guys playing out of position, so I don't see an issue there.

So it looks like the rotation is the only big question right now, and even there guys are starting to trend in the right direction.

[Rasputin]

I don't see any big dollar acquisition with a extension coming. They dumped Scutaro for bupkes remember and the dollars already committed to players in future years are significant.

We already have Beckett, Buchholz, Bard, Lester, Lackey, and Doubront who are going to come into spring training expecting to be in the rotation and while some might have innings limits they aren't going to just go away.

[YTF]

Food for thought.......Lets suppose the Sox do make a move to trade Youkilis. I think most of us would agree that he's likely going to one of the contender's needing help at either of both infield corners. What if that team also needs a starting pitcher? Now if you subscibe to the theory that the team moving Youks signals that they have given up on the season AND they want to maximize their return, might a package of Youkilis and Matsuzaka (providing both are healthy) be pretty attractive to a few teams out there? If you get a couple of teams needing a bat and an arm bidding on this package (or get two teams involved in a 3 way deal) the Sox might be able to do quite well and move some $$$ off of this season's payroll. Dice-K is likely gone after this season any way, so I'm guessing he'll be shopped around rather than allowed to just walk, especially if it looks like he may make an impact somewhere. He does have a full no trade I believe, but I would imagine he'd wave that for an opporuntity to go deep into the post season and showcase himself going into free agency.

[MikeM]

I don't see any big dollar acquisition with a extension coming. They dumped Scutaro for bupkes remember and the dollars already committed to players in future years are significant.

This x2.

As far as the possibility that the Sox are not really contenders this year goes, nowadays 27-25 leaves you what, 1.5 back in the WC race? Given this team is most certainly capable of playing better then that the rest of the way, i'd also put the current odds of seeing a Youk for not-ready-or-close-to-ready prospects trade go down at pretty much no chance status. At least if we are speculating in the potential realm of noteworthy/non-salary dump type returns.

IDK, maybe the new labor changes this winter opens the door more to the possibility of a "sell stance" then i'm currently giving it credit for. Up until this point though, there's just been little-to-zero indication of such even being in this FO's general makeup to begin with, imo.

Edited by MikeM, 02 June 2012 - 02:28 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

This team is good enough that adding another major SP could make a huge difference. Greinke's peripherals in particular indicate that he's probably one of the very best pitchers in the league, and any time a pitcher of that caliber is on the table you have to make a major effort to land him.

He no doubt has the stuff and stats, but I would be goddamn petrified of a trade for Greinke. This is a guy who almost washed out of the league with an anxiety disorder, has little experience pitching in games that matter, and no experience pitching in a big market. I generally minimalize the latter two factors, but Greinke in particular is someone who seems like a massive risk in the Fenway pressure cooker.

[Yaz4Ever]

He no doubt has the stuff and stats, but I would be goddamn petrified of a trade for Greinke. This is a guy who almost washed out of the league with an anxiety disorder, has little experience pitching in games that matter, and no experience pitching in a big market. I generally minimalize the latter two factors, but Greinke in particular is someone who seems like a massive risk in the Fenway pressure cooker.

Agreed completely. Not a psychologist, but I don't see Greinke ever doing nearly as well in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, or any other of the "more intense" cities.

[Pumpsie]

Agreed completely. Not a psychologist, but I don't see Greinke ever doing nearly as well in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia, or any other of the "more intense" cities.

Garza would be a better pick-up than Greinke for this reason.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

Garza would be a better pick-up than Greinke for this reason.

But not nearly as nice as Cole Hamels.

[bosockboy]

Rosenthal:

The

Red Sox

are motivated to trade

Kevin Youkilis

sooner than later, wanting to preclude a distraction and limit the positional shuffling of

Adrian Gonzalez

, but potential suitors want to see Youkilis remain healthy and productive before buying. The Dodgers are an obvious fit, while the

Diamondbacks

, who expressed interest last offseason, might not have the financial flexibility to take on the $12MM owed to Youk.

[Adrian's Dome]

nevermind

Edited by Adrian's Dome, 03 June 2012 - 01:25 AM.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

He no doubt has the stuff and stats, but I would be goddamn petrified of a trade for Greinke. This is a guy who almost washed out of the league with an anxiety disorder, has little experience pitching in games that matter, and no experience pitching in a big market. I generally minimalize the latter two factors, but Greinke in particular is someone who seems like a massive risk in the Fenway pressure cooker.

It's kind of funny - guys usually haven't proven they can pitch in big markets or in big games until they've had the opportunity to do so. Nice 3 game sample size.

Jesus Christ - anxiety disorders aren't exactly homicidal mania, and Greinke's "walking away" moment was to get his own shit together. He's one of the league's best pitchers, and is likely undervalued because Milwaukee's brutal defense. If there's ever been an "acceptable risk" this is it.

At what point is the "Boston pressure cooker" either self-fulfilling, or fan onanism?

[JimBoSox9]

Is it your view that the idea that someone unused to the pressure cooker could be adversely affected by it is a completely invalid concern, or that there is some minimal validity to the concern but Greinke isnt at any higher risk than anyone else, or that he is at higher risk to underperform but his talent makes the gamble worthwhile?

[Marbleheader]

A couple of years ago when the trade rumors were swirling, Geinke was asked about pitching in New York and said he couldn't do it. I remember hearing Gammons agreeing saying something like he'd be better off pitching in Iceland, and that it didn't bode well for the Sox chances of landing him either.

[PrometheusWakefield]

A couple of years ago when the trade rumors were swirling, Geinke was asked about pitching in New York and said he couldn't do it. I remember hearing Gammons agreeing saying something like he'd be better off pitching in Iceland, and that it didn't bode well for the Sox chances of landing him either.

Here are the relevant quotes:

“[The environment] had a lot to do with [signing the extension in Kansas City], for sure,” Greinke said at the 2009 All-Star Game. “Now, maybe New York would bother me, but I don’t think anywhere else would bother me anymore. Even though I’m in Kansas City, I’ve gotten used to it a lot more. New York, I still might have trouble in New York. I probably would. But I think almost everyone does.”

Greinke, FoxSports.com reported earlier this offseason, will have the right to veto trades to 15 teams in 2011. This past season, when he had the right to veto deals to 20 clubs, the report stated, both the Yankees and Red Sox were on the list of teams to whom he had the right to veto a deal. And while that is sometimes merely a negotiating ploy to extract more money from potentially interested clubs, in Greinke’s case, the issue could be more delicate than that.

As MLB Network and NESN analyst Peter Gammons said on The Big Show on Friday:

“I can’t believe [the Yankees would] ever trade for Greinke and try to have him pitch in New York. I think he’s better off pitching in Greenland.”

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Is it your view that the idea that someone unused to the pressure cooker could be adversely affected by it is a completely invalid concern, or that there is some minimal validity to the concern but Greinke isnt at any higher risk than anyone else, or that he is at higher risk to underperform but his talent makes the gamble worthwhile?

If there's ever been an "acceptable risk" this is it.

Basically, the above.

I'm not as troubled by his NY comments though, due to both his hedging, and Greinke just overall being an odd quote machine. Obviously, "people concerns" matter - personal life intrudes into work life all the time, and it's nearly impossible to guess when those things will crop up, and how people will react to adversity. It could just be that I'm not as risk-adverse as you, particularly with regard to elite talent - I fully acknowledge that those with severe anxiety disorders have the possibility of crippling relapses and even minor 'triggers' can greatly affect everyday life, but there's a (smaller) chance of this type of thing happening to literally every player you acquire, and nearly none of those players have his skills. It's basic risk/reward math, for me anyway.

Even acknowledging the above, though, I think people greatly overstate the risks, assuming Greinke's treatment and personal development has been as successful as it seems. There have been players with anxiety issues who played in Boston before, and there will be again - and there feels like a pernicious element of "That bum can't hack it in Boston, because the Hub is so fucking special!" going on as well.

[TheoShmeo]

I don't see why they would take the chance on Greinke. Youks, while healthy, as he appears to be now, is a tremendous trade chip. And it's not as if Greinke is the only attractive starting pitcher out there. Wherever you fall on the pop psychology analysis, it's inarguable that there's some risk that Greinke will have issues in a big market like Boston. It doesn't take a huge leap of faith to believe that part of Crawford's problem last year was Boston generated pressure. So unless you believe that Zach is head and shoulders above the other alternatives, I can't imagine going down that path.

I love the idea of Matt Garza and his ugly face spitting on the Nouvelle Toilette in a Boston uniform. Talk about a guy who has shown he can prosper in the AL East.

Late edit: spelling/grammar

Edited by TheoShmeo, 03 June 2012 - 01:16 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

Basically, the above.

I'm not as troubled by his NY comments though, due to both his hedging, and Greinke just overall being an odd quote machine. Obviously, "people concerns" matter - personal life intrudes into work life all the time, and it's nearly impossible to guess when those things will crop up, and how people will react to adversity. It could just be that I'm not as risk-adverse as you, particularly with regard to elite talent - I fully acknowledge that those with severe anxiety disorders have the possibility of crippling relapses and even minor 'triggers' can greatly affect everyday life, but there's a (smaller) chance of this type of thing happening to literally every player you acquire, and nearly none of those players have his skills. It's basic risk/reward math, for me anyway.

Even acknowledging the above, though, I think people greatly overstate the risks, assuming Greinke's treatment and personal development has been as successful as it seems. There have been players with anxiety issues who played in Boston before, and there will be again - and there feels like a pernicious element of "That bum can't hack it in Boston, because the Hub is so fucking special!" going on as well.

Well said. I think we agree on the last point that the "Boston mentality" is usually overblown, and the Gammo quote reminds me that in this day and age it's very easy for a 10-cent Greinke narrative to overwhelm the more complex Greinke reality. The kicker for me, though, is that I don't see the Brewers trading him for less than his talent level warrants, and that's a pretty penny indeed - multiple good prospects with or without Youks being in the package. Without a small discount for the head-case-risk, I'm on the other side of the risk/reward fence.

Edited by JimBoSox9, 03 June 2012 - 10:18 AM.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

Well said. I think we agree on the last point that the "Boston mentality" is usually overblown, and the Gammo quote reminds me that in this day and age it's very easy for a 10-cent Greinke narrative to overwhelm the more complex Greinke reality. The kicker for me, though, is that I don't see the Brewers trading him for less than his talent level warrants, and that's a pretty penny indeed - multiple good prospects with or without Youks being in the package. Without a small discount for the head-case-risk, I'm on the other side of the risk/reward fence.

I think that's fair, and obviously we're arguing blind until (and if) there's some idea of what it would take to get him.

[PrometheusWakefield]

This is a really good article on Greinke's personality.

Phoenix — The new Brewers ace was asked Tuesday whether he might be comfortable in a smallish setting like Milwaukee.

"I had to think about that a bunch in the off-season when I was thinking about where I could possibly be traded," Zack Greinke said. "I really don't think it matters too much.

"There's more people to ignore in New York or Boston than there are in Milwaukee, but I'll still ignore them, probably."

And you're probably thinking, what a typically self-centered, narcissistic pro-athlete jerk.

But cut the guy some slack. In the same conversation, the 2009 American League Cy Young Award winner had this to say:

"Baseball, in my opinion, would be a lot better if you made it the same salary as everybody else in the world and you don't deal with any of the other stuff."

No offense to anyone in our town or anywhere else, because Greinke just happens to be in a profession that doesn't exactly match his personality. Millions may know his name and thousands will watch him work every fifth day, but he'd be much more comfortable to do his job in solitude, even if this was the business he chose.

Greinke suffers from social anxiety and depression to the point where he nearly left the game for good five seasons ago, when he was all of 22 years old.

"I was done playing," he said. "I'm surprised I came back, to tell you the truth.

"They had me go see this psychiatrist (about) why I didn't like going to the baseball field. I was completely done. When I left, I was maybe a 10% chance I'd come back."

So why did he?

Thankfully, medication doesn't always dull compulsion in the naturally gifted.

"The main thing is I want to pitch against the best players in the world," he said. "You can't do that by playing in a pickup baseball league in your town.

"It would be nice if no one knew who I was in Milwaukee when I wasn't at the baseball field, but that's not going to happen."

"Yeah, it does, but it's still tough," Greinke said. "It's not like I like a lot of stuff. I don't like talking bad about fans, but they annoy me a lot of times, like the autograph guys out here. The ones who annoy me the most is when we get to the hotels. Sometimes I feel like I can't go outside because there are fans downstairs."

That's the thing about fame. He's in the entertainment business, and he knows it. Just as Greinke can never use his condition as an excuse for boorishness even if it occasionally leads to anti-social behavior, he can never let it come between him and his new teammates.

Until Tuesday, I had never seen Greinke interacting with them. He ate breakfast every morning at an empty table at the edge of a teeming clubhouse. He had trouble coming up with the names of those who sit on either side of him.

"You don't have to talk to them an hour a day to get to know people," Greinke said. "I don't like to go to dinner with people too much. That wears me out."

Has he met any new teammates he enjoys?

"I like a lot of the guys," he said. "I haven't seen anyone who's annoying to me yet. The staff seems to have a lot of talent. And the offensive guys, too. It's fun to watch."

But there was a breakthrough of sorts at the first workout. Just before bunt-defense practice, Greinke was holding court with the pitching staff, even cracking up some of the pitchers with whatever he was saying.

"He wants to do his job and that's it," said Craig Counsell, one of the team's elder leaders. "There's nothing wrong with that. He's paid to pitch."...

And in the state of Florida, he was one of the best junior tennis players and golfers.

"I don't think I ever lost a match," Greinke said. "But I'd get so nervous before games it was awful. There was a world tournament. I ended up losing to this guy and I never played again."

Same with golf.

"I don't play anymore," he said. "I'm not going to be a pro golfer, so there's no reason at all."

The bolded stuff there sounds like autism to me. I have to say, I really would love to have Greinke on the Red Sox but after reading that article I think it might be a problem in the Boston environment.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 03 June 2012 - 01:13 PM.

[OCD SS]

I don't really see what I would call "a lot" of issues with the team, though. The rotation needs work. Bard and Doubront will need replacements as they approach their innings limits. Matsuzaka should be filling one of those two spots and they need to figure out where the other replacement will come from. That's certainly an issue. Lester needs to remember he's a good pitcher. That's an issue. Beyond that, Beckett has been really good over his last four starts (2.20 ERA) and looks like he's found some consistency again. Buchholz has looked like a completely different pitcher in his last two starts. He's still, absolutely a question, but there's reason to be optimistic at least.

There's always reasons to be optimistic when the team is playing well, but I see these as issues with every member of the rotation. The good performances have short track records and could just as easily be subject to regression. But OTOH the number of questions aren't really solved by pushing everyone back. And filling in the back of the rotation for Dubront/ Bard with DiceK doesn't strike me any sort of sure thing.

But outside of the rotation, things are pretty good. Even with all the injuries, this has been the second best offense in the AL. As they get healthier the chances they stay this good increase. The bullpen has been surprisingly good for quite a while now. Eventually Baily will displace Aceves as the closer and Bard will hopefully return to the pen, strengthening the back end significantly. Doubront looks like he could be a big bullpen addition as well.

Defensively this team has been solid, even with guys playing out of position, so I don't see an issue there.

So it looks like the rotation is the only big question right now, and even there guys are starting to trend in the right direction.

2/3 (or 3/4) of the starting OF is out without a sense of when they'll be back. At this point I'm not sure I'd be that comfortable making any assumptions about the health of the Red Sox trending up. The fact that the bullpen has been "surprisingly good" kind of points to the fact that the SSS caveats go both ways, and we have to expect someone to fall back to earth. The way Bard has looked as a starter, I don't think it's safe to assume that he'll suddenly revert to the relief ace we thought he was last year just because he moves to the 'pen. Similarly I don't think Dubront can be expect to make the transition without incident, and depending on things go it might make more sense to max out his innings in the rotation and then to just shut him down.

The offense (and for the most part the defense) has kept pace, and hopefully Gonzalez gives up on his James Loney impersonation (is it worth asking if asking him to play out of position is affecting his offense?), but again, this looks good because the team is winning. My point is just that with the competitive nature of the division, I'm not sure that this team is one that looks like a solid contender where the Sox should give up an asset like Youks for a short term fix rather than getting prospects for a brighter future, especially given the new limits placed on high revenue teams with the CBA. What's nice is that the current state of the OF gives the Sox a perfect showcase of Youk at 1B (with AG in RF) and then shift him to 3B (as a "defensive replacement" for WMB). Youk is shown at both positions, with less time slotted at the typically thought of more demanding position. And it looks natural enough as a pure baseball decision given the roster. Hopefully Cherrington can use the increased wildcard competition to drive up the price. Standing pat with Youks because either WMB might not be ready or he or Adrian Gonzalez might get hurt strikes me as the worst thing to do.

[HriniakPosterChild]

This is a really good article on Greinke's personality.
... sounds like autism to me. I have to say, I really would love to have Greinke on the Red Sox but after reading that article I think it might be a problem in the Boston environment.

Hmm. "They had me go see this psychiatrist (about) why I didn't like going to the baseball field...."

Wouldn't this psychiatrist either diagnose this condition, or refer Greinke to someone who could do so?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

There's always reasons to be optimistic when the team is playing well, but I see these as issues with every member of the rotation. The good performances have short track records and could just as easily be subject to regression. But OTOH the number of questions aren't really solved by pushing everyone back. And filling in the back of the rotation for Dubront/ Bard with DiceK doesn't strike me any sort of sure thing.

It's certainly not a sure thing, but he has a track record that suggests he's likely to be decent as a back of the rotation starter. I don't think it's such an awful bet. Reasonable minds can disagree, though.

2/3 (or 3/4) of the starting OF is out without a sense of when they'll be back. At this point I'm not sure I'd be that comfortable making any assumptions about the health of the Red Sox trending up. The fact that the bullpen has been "surprisingly good" kind of points to the fact that the SSS caveats go both ways, and we have to expect someone to fall back to earth. The way Bard has looked as a starter, I don't think it's safe to assume that he'll suddenly revert to the relief ace we thought he was last year just because he moves to the 'pen. Similarly I don't think Dubront can be expect to make the transition without incident, and depending on things go it might make more sense to max out his innings in the rotation and then to just shut him down.

The offense (and for the most part the defense) has kept pace, and hopefully Gonzalez gives up on his James Loney impersonation (is it worth asking if asking him to play out of position is affecting his offense?), but again, this looks good because the team is winning. My point is just that with the competitive nature of the division, I'm not sure that this team is one that looks like a solid contender where the Sox should give up an asset like Youks for a short term fix rather than getting prospects for a brighter future, especially given the new limits placed on high revenue teams with the CBA. What's nice is that the current state of the OF gives the Sox a perfect showcase of Youk at 1B (with AG in RF) and then shift him to 3B (as a "defensive replacement" for WMB). Youk is shown at both positions, with less time slotted at the typically thought of more demanding position. And it looks natural enough as a pure baseball decision given the roster. Hopefully Cherrington can use the increased wildcard competition to drive up the price. Standing pat with Youks because either WMB might not be ready or he or Adrian Gonzalez might get hurt strikes me as the worst thing to do.

We're both looking at the same variables and are drawing different conclusions, and that's fine. I happen to see this team as being about as beat up as you can reasonably expect them to get. I see Ellsbury making progress, talk of Pedroia returning this week, Bailey throwing the ball again, Melancon throwing well in AAA just waiting for an opportunity to crack the pen and Kalish hitting well in his rehab stint. I'll refrain from including reports of Crawford swinging the bat again as even supposedly healthy last year he didn't bring much, but there has been progress toward getting a healthy club out there again. That the team has weathered this injury stretch so well leaves me feeling very optimistic. No, they won't keep winning at this rate, even if healthy, but they can absolutely continue to win series on a regular basis and I don't see any reason to assume they won't keep up with the division.

As for Youk, I'd like to see them hang onto him. I don't want him moved for a Dempster type and don't want him moved for prospects unless the return is really strong. In other words, if someone is willing to overpay, take it. Five more months of Youk plus two picks when he departs is probably going to be worth more than the prospects they can trade him for. So why not keep the best team possible together to make a run at the playoffs? This team is absolutely good enough to win the World Series. They just need to be reasonably healthy come October.

Hmm. "They had me go see this psychiatrist (about) why I didn't like going to the baseball field...."

Wouldn't this psychiatrist either diagnose this condition, or refer Greinke to someone who could do so?

The following sentences mention that he is medicated, and adjusted his medication that off season, which suggests that his condition *was* diagnosed and is currently being managed.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 03 June 2012 - 04:24 PM.

[Al Zarilla]

This is a really good article on Greinke's personality.




The bolded stuff there sounds like autism to me. I have to say, I really would love to have Greinke on the Red Sox but after reading that article I think it might be a problem in the Boston environment.

Give the guy a break. Autism, anxiety disorder and depression? He would never leave the house, then you could diagnose him with agoraphobia.

[E5 Yaz]

Give the guy a break. Autism, anxiety disorder and depression? He would never leave the house, then you could diagnose him with agoraphobia.

I don't want anyone in the Boston environment who's afraid of sweaters. It gets cold in New England

[Al Zarilla]

I don't want anyone in the Boston environment who's afraid of sweaters. It gets cold in New England

Angoraphobia?

Getting tangential. Cross the Giants off the suitor for Youkilis list. They're doing it the 2010 way again, albeit w/o a good hitting first baseman. They'll also decide they have too good a "chemistry" to bring in a Youks type. However, The Panda may have pulled "a Roethlisberger".

Edited by Al Zarilla, 03 June 2012 - 06:08 PM.

[OCD SS]

We're both looking at the same variables and are drawing different conclusions, and that's fine.

I should probably be clear that I'm not actually coming to conclusions; I'm just trying to point out that there are ways to look at the roster where it doesn't make sense to go all in and deal him for short term help this year. I think it's a side of the debate that was not being considered.

As for Youk, I'd like to see them hang onto him. I don't want him moved for a Dempster type and don't want him moved for prospects unless the return is really strong. In other words, if someone is willing to overpay, take it. Five more months of Youk plus two picks when he departs is probably going to be worth more than the prospects they can trade him for. So why not keep the best team possible together to make a run at the playoffs? This team is absolutely good enough to win the World Series. They just need to be reasonably healthy come October.

I don't necessarily disagree; I'd hate to see Youks dealt for a Dempster type, but I think that the new playoff structure will lead to increased bidding for an A-list player as top teams look to avoid a 1 game playoff and 2-tier teams try to get into the playoffs. So I do expect that Youks track record and likely availability will bring more in return than the comp pick, but that the price will have to be prospects, since no team in the hunt will weaken its ML roster. I think someone up thread mentioned VMart as a comp for a deal, which is probably about right. Honestly, I think you have to look at Youks as one of the biggest health question marks, so I do think that it makes sense to deal him if someone wants to pay the price for the gamble.

I also agree that this team is good enough to win the WS, it's just that the same is true of any team in the division. The real trick comes from drawing the assessment in June or July. Would dealing Youks, given how WMB has been playing and how Adrian Gonzalez manages the OF, really weaken the team that much? In that regard dealing him moves Adrian Gonzalez back into position and opens up a spot for Kalish...

[Manramsclan]

A link wherein someone from Arizona floats Youkilis to D-backs for Joe Saunders, "but the Sox would have to throw in some cash."

Propaganda? Probably.

[fineyoungarm]

Garza would be a better pick-up than Greinke for this reason.

Not going to get much argument that the #1 need for the 2012 Red Sox is a 5th starter (maybe a #4 and #5 starter), and to conclude that this person is not presently on the 40 man roster (or even in the system) is not a stretch. But Garza?

He of the ear plugs and "positive thinking" notes in his cap? Who has said that he does not like to think about a game he is about to pitch? A sub .500 W - L career record? And a really bad beard (worse than Youk's)? I think he would be as subject to collapse in the Boston market as Greinke - and he is not as talented. In addition to his no hitter, Garza's greatest claim to fame is his dominance of the Red Sox - especially in 2008. Didn't we learn our lesson about that approach 40+ years ago with Danny Cater?

Insofar as Boston is concerned, I think both of the G's are radioactive.

[Ed Hillel]

If we go from having to root for John Lackey to having to root for Matt Garza, I may be left with emotional scars that keep me from ever going near a baseball field again.

[fineyoungarm]

If we go from having to root for John Lackey to having to root for Matt Garza, I may be left with emotional scars that keep me from ever going near a baseball field again.

For your consideration - both on the staff next year - our one way ticket to ---------- The Twighlight Zone.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not going to get much argument that the #1 need for the 2012 Red Sox is a 5th starter (maybe a #4 and #5 starter), and to conclude that this person is not presently on the 40 man roster (or even in the system) is not a stretch. But Garza?

He of the ear plugs and "positive thinking" notes in his cap? Who has said that he does not like to think about a game he is about to pitch? A sub .500 W - L career record? And a really bad beard (worse than Youk's)? I think he would be as subject to collapse in the Boston market as Greinke - and he is not as talented. In addition to his no hitter, Garza's greatest claim to fame is his dominance of the Red Sox - especially in 2008. Didn't we learn our lesson about that approach 40+ years ago with Danny Cater?

Insofar as Boston is concerned, I think both of the G's are radioactive.

Garza would suck to have to root for, sure. But he put up a 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, and 2.32 K/BB in three years IN THE AL EAST, and has generally been better than that in the NL the last year and a half. He's faced the so-called pressure cooker and held up to it just fine. He'd instantly be the #3 in the rotation. He is anything but radioactive.

The question isn't whether he's a fit in Boston, it's whether the Red Sox have the chips, and the willingness to part with them in order to land him.

[fineyoungarm]

Garza would suck to have to root for, sure. But he put up a 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, and 2.32 K/BB in three years IN THE AL EAST, and has generally been better than that in the NL the last year and a half. He's faced the so-called pressure cooker and held up to it just fine. He'd instantly be the #3 in the rotation. He is anything but radioactive.

The question isn't whether he's a fit in Boston, it's whether the Red Sox have the chips, and the willingness to part with them in order to land him.

Baloney - that's like the Globe today stating that he had a career year last year with the Cubs. Really? I doubt even Garza agrees with that.

I can read the stats as well as you and you're too stats driven - except for Ws and Ls it seems (which are crappy for him except for one year). This guy is essentially a 4.00 era/.500 type - and a head case to boot. The clubhouse may just be regaining its footing after last year - and it's a good idea to throw Matt Garza into the mix?

However, on the one in a million chance I am incorrect, Garza is tailor made to be torn apart by the Boston media (and fans for that matter).

Enjoyable verbal sparring aside, however, I have big doubts about doing any (more) deals with Epstein any time soon. Matters not that Cherington and he are "chums". Theo comes callng - hang on to your wallet.

[JimBoSox9]

I can read the stats as well as you and you're too stats driven - except for Ws and Ls it seems (which are crappy for him except for one year).

I'm OK with being snarky and I'm OK with being an idiot, but if you're going to be one you should make damn sure you're not the other.

This guy is essentially a 4.00 era/.500 type - and a head case to boot.

I'd kill a man for a 3 starter who can put up a 4 ERA in the AL East over 200+ innings. Plus, he's firery on the mound, but that's a long ways away from being a clubhouse problem.

[E5 Yaz]

Does anyone in here seriously think the Sox are getting Garza or Greinke for Youkilis?

[Sprowl]

Does anyone in here seriously think the Sox are getting Garza or Greinke for Youkilis?

The most plausible scenarios involve a third team with prospects to offer and high ambitions for 2012. I can imagine a trade exchanging Garza for 3 prospects (2 good ones, 1 decent) for Youkilis + a quality major-league reliever. Youkilis is a middle-of-the-order power hitter when healthy who can play well at 1B or well enough at 3B. Putting together the team or adding a 4th team is well within the powers of Theo Epstein. Cherington might be able to pull it off too.

[fineyoungarm]

I'm OK with being snarky and I'm OK with being an idiot, but if you're going to be one you should make damn sure you're not the other.



I'd kill a man for a 3 starter who can put up a 4 ERA in the AL East over 200+ innings. Plus, he's firery on the mound, but that's a long ways away from being a clubhouse problem.

Too bad you didn't bother to read the entire post before ratcheting the discussion down a level or two. But in any event, neither of the Gs is coming over for Youk and RHS is correct, the Red Sox are not going to pony up what it would take to get either. (Which means there is a 50% - 50% chance that it happens tomorrow.)

[fineyoungarm]

The most plausible scenarios involve a third team with prospects to offer and high ambitions for 2012. I can imagine a trade exchanging Garza for 3 prospects (2 good ones, 1 decent) for Youkilis + a quality major-league reliever. Youkilis is a middle-of-the-order power hitter when healthy who can play well at 1B or well enough at 3B. Putting together the team or adding a 4th team is well within the powers of Theo Epstein. Cherington might be able to pull it off too.

Boy, I know the rotation is problematic, but deal someone from the pen? One (or more) of those guys is likely to falter.

[Sprowl]

Boy, I know the rotation is problematic, but deal someone from the pen? One (or more) of those guys is likely to falter.

Certainly, injuries or regression are possible, but the bullpen is currently a position of surplus, and surplus is what teams deal from. There are ten competent relievers, two of which the Red Sox can lose without suffering. There are three left-handers, one of which the team can lose without suffering. Melançon, Tazawa and Mortenson all look like equal-value replacements for Morales or Albers.
Does another team lust after Aceves, Atchison, Hill, Miller or Padilla? Probably not, but if one does, trade him.

[bosockboy]

Boy, I know the rotation is problematic, but deal someone from the pen? One (or more) of those guys is likely to falter.

We've got several to spare. Bailey and Melancon have to get in this pen at some point. I think Albers would be a nice piece for an NL contender. We also have three lefties for two spots.....Morales or Miller probably go somewhere in the next month or two.

[fineyoungarm]

Sure . Tend to be (very) risk adverse, when it comes to tinkering with a bull pen that is going well. Pavlovian reaction based on history.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Too bad you didn't bother to read the entire post before ratcheting the discussion down a level or two. But in any event, neither of the Gs is coming over for Youk and RHS is correct, the Red Sox are not going to pony up what it would take to get either. (Which means there is a 50% - 50% chance that it happens tomorrow.)

Don't put words in my mouth, please. I did not say or imply that the Sox won't "pony up" for Garza. My point was that Garza is a very very attractive option for the 2012 Red Sox. The question isn't whether the Red Sox would want him or if he'd fit the rotation or the clubhouse. It's if they can put together a deal that makes sense all the way around (for the Cubs, for the Sox, for a potential 3rd/4th team involved).

[fineyoungarm]

Don't put words in my mouth, please. I did not say or imply that the Sox won't "pony up" for Garza. My point was that Garza is a very very attractive option for the 2012 Red Sox. The question isn't whether the Red Sox would want him or if he'd fit the rotation or the clubhouse. It's if they can put together a deal that makes sense all the way around (for the Cubs, for the Sox, for a potential 3rd/4th team involved).

I cannot come up with an argument against doing a deal that makes sense. Even one involving Matt Garza. And I tried to.

[Rasputin]

I cannot come up with an argument against doing a deal that makes sense. Even one involving Matt Garza. And I tried to.

That's kind of the definition of a deal that makes sense.

[fineyoungarm]

That's kind of the definition of a deal that makes sense.

Which in its own way, is a sensible definition.

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Give the guy a break. Autism, anxiety disorder and depression? He would never leave the house, then you could diagnose him with agoraphobia.

Greinke is not autistic. He very well may have Asperger's which is technically on the spectrum. People with Asperger's typically have social issues and anxiety issues but are of average or above average intelligence. But saying that someone with Asperger's is Autistic is like saying Darnell McDonald is the same player as Willie Mays. Yes they're both professional baseball players but they're abilities aren't equal.

[SoxScout]

DKnobler: One scout from interested team went to see Youkilis, sent back very negative report: "For what he costs, he can't do anything."

[Quintanariffic]

Scouts have always gotten Youkilis evaluation wrong. Why should they start getting it right now?

[OCD SS]

How do you argue that they're wrong at this point? The difference between scouts in the minors projecting what he would become and MLB scouts looking at his ability now are very different things, and sadly the latter is who are dictating the return the Sox might get for Youks.

Edit: I'll add that I like Youks to Cleveland. They're contending in the central and both their 1B & 3Bman are pretty bad. It looks like they see the next couple years before Choo hits FA as a window to make a run and they've already shown that they will deal prospects to get players they like (see Ubaldo last year).

Edited by OCD SS, 13 June 2012 - 06:45 AM.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Scouts have always gotten Youkilis evaluation wrong. Why should they start getting it right now?

They got the evaluations wrong back when he was a college player hitting .428 or whatever it was as they ignored the results and focused on the body and weird batting stance, etc. This year he's a 33 year old 3B/1B with a 655 OPS and a scary recent history of devastating injuries over the past few seasons. I'd say the scouts are pretty much right on in evaluating the Youkilis of 2012.

[SMU_Sox]

I think that was sarcasm, guys.