21 replies to this topic

[DLew On Roids]

The current best payouts on each side, according to Oddschecker.com:

Spain 14-5 (2.8-1)
Germany 3-1
Netherlands 36-5 (7.2-1)
France 11-1
England 63-5 (12.6-1)
Italy 73-5 (14.6-1)
Portugal 20-1
Russia 26-1
Poland 50-1
Ukraine 53-1
Croatia 60-1
Sweden 75-1
Czech Republic 102-1
Denmark 108-1
Ireland 110-1
Greece 119-1

Any good values here? England seems way overvalued, probably by about one-third. The only two I really like are the Netherlands (probably cheaper than they'd be if they were in an easier group) and Denmark, which I'd say has a 2-3% chance of winning.

Feel free to suggest props, too.

[Zomp]

Italy at nearly 15 to 1 seems like a good deal.

[Seven Costanza]

England WAY overvalued? Jesus. Those are joke odds.

[Hendu's Gait]

Czech Republic at 102-1, relatively easy group, decent FIFA ranking.

[coremiller]

France at 11-1. They have an easy group and if they win the group (which they should), they should face a pretty weak Italy team or maybe Croatia in the quarters. After Spain they have by far the easiest path to the semis (where there will be no easy games), but Spain's price is too low.

[Tony the Pony]

Ireland
Ukraine
Denmark

[DLew On Roids]

Doesn't Ukraine still have Shevchenko up top? Then again, they'd get every match on home soil.

I do like Ireland. They have a Greece '04 team. Boring, defensive, and capable of winning every match 0-0 on penalties.

[SoxFanInCali]

Doesn't Ukraine still have Shevchenko up top? Then again, they'd get every match on home soil.

They also have our old friend Andriy Voronin, who pulled this off the other day.

[Seven Costanza]

Agreed on Ireland. I'm not a betting man, but if I were, 5 bucks on Eire to win it all would be nice. Like you said, Greece has won this tournament before. Anything's possible.

[DLew On Roids]

Voronin is nothing without the ponytail. It put Carroll's to shame.

[Nick Kaufman]

Perhaps ze Germans should be the outright favorites no?

[koufax32]

If I were betting I would put some good money on France. They've not lost in a good while and are hitting their stride offensively, which is saying alot for France. At 11-1 odds that would be a great bet. They won't be challenged much in their group.

[ethangl]

The Italians are like 2 for 3 in major tournaments following Serie A betting scandals. I'll take 15-1.

[DrewDawg]

What are the odds of a major race riot?

http://www.football3...adiums-Of-Hate-

Crazy BBC documentary on the hosts. Only 30 minutes long, worth the watch.

However, it has to be said that Kharkiv in the Ukraine made Lodz look like Greenwich Village. Rogers got some brilliant footage of a Metalist game with, he says, 2,000 fans giving it the always charming Nazi Salute. This was backed up with a grimly hilarious interview with a Colonel in the local police force claiming:

"Nazi salute? Oh, no no no no. These people were merely pointing at the opposing fans."

Edited by DrewDawg, 04 June 2012 - 08:16 PM.

[fletcherpost]

Hmm, earlier today i saw England quoted at 16-1. I wonder if the queens jubilee celebrations got people all waxy and patriotic and drunk and thusly tripping off to the bookies...ergo bringing in the price.

[Tokyo Sox]

Ireland
Ukraine
Denmark

Ireland, Ukraine, Denmark what? You'd back them at the listed odds? Ukraine are hosts, yada yada, I guess they have a very small shot at getting out of their group, though they'll probably finish at the bottom. Ditto Ireland, minus the hosts part. Denmark has exactly zero chance of getting out of their group.

In terms of value, I agree that the Czechs at 102-1 look decent, as does France at 11-1 and/or Croatia at 60-1. Since they'll possibly play each other in the quarters, if you think Spain is beatable then it might make sense to take a punt on both France and Croatia at those levels.

[Dehere]

Sort of related, Fox Soccer is running a free Euro 2012 bracket pool here if anybody is game for a SOSH pool: http://eurobracket.f...r/clienthome.do

[Tony the Pony]

Ireland, Ukraine, Denmark what? You'd back them at the listed odds?

If Denmark can win it in 92, the Czechs make the final in 96, the Greeks win it in 04 and Russia make the final in 08 - there's no reason why Ireland, Ukraine or Denmark have no shot at winning it all.

Basically, except for the 2000 Euros every final has featured an outsider.

[Vinho Tinto]

If Denmark can win it in 92, the Czechs make the final in 96, the Greeks win it in 04 and Russia make the final in 08 - there's no reason why Ireland, Ukraine or Denmark have no shot at winning it all.

Basically, except for the 2000 Euros every final has featured an outsider.

I know you know this, but the Rooskies reached the finals in '88. '08 was Spain-Germany. But your general point remains true. Let's not forget the Czechs unexpectedly making the '76 and '96 finals.

[Tony the Pony]

yea yea yea 88 Van Basten over Dassaev and Belanov getting schooled by Van Breukelen. I do remember that

(Actually, I also remember the Vasyl Rats goal that had all of Holland think of an early exit that year)

[DLew On Roids]

Denmark has exactly zero chance of getting out of their group.

[Snakebauer007]