6 replies to this topic

[kieckeredinthehead]

This year, the Red Sox have the 4th-lowest walk rate (7.67%) in the league, ahead of only Texas (7.5%), LAA (7.0%) and Kansas (6.8%). They haven't been lower than top 3 or 4 in the past decade. It doesn't seem to be affecting the offense directly - they're 2nd in runs scored and batting average, behind Texas, and ranked 3rd in OPS, behind NYY and Texas. They're also as patient as ever, at 3.95 P/PA, 2nd in the league behind, who else, Oakland. So - what's the deal? There's been some talk the past few years that the Sox emphasized OBP too much. Call it the J.D. Drew problem, where your RBI are going to be lower than expected if your OPS is tied up too much in walks. Is this a fluke? A conscious decision? Or just the result of having a bunch of hackers (Aviles, Salty, Sweeney)?

edit: Incidentally, team P/PA isn't really predictive of team OBP (positive, but non-significant correlation this year), but Boston has one of the lowest BB:P/PA ratio. Seattle and Cleveland lead the league in that category, whatever that means.

Edited by kieckeredinthehead, 29 May 2012 - 01:11 AM.

[JimBoSox9]

It's an odd mix. You have three guys in Salty, Aviles, and Ross whose OPS is driven much more from SLG than OBP, which is something the Epstein Sox always seemed to avoid. The latter two weren't initially projected to get this much playing time, so it's hard to tell if it's just circumstance or an organizational shift. You have the Greek God of PPA and IsoP missing a bunch of time. Then you have A-Gon setting career lows in both those categories.

I think it's just a combination of flukes and the results of injuries & late trades changing playing time.

[deconstruction]

Hard to lump Alives, Salty, and Sweeney in the same class when their P/PA are respectively 3.58, 3.91, and 4.29 (which is top 10 in the AL). It's odd that Sweeney's BB/PA is so low (3.7%, bottom 10 in the AL) when his P/PA is so high.

Edited by deconstruction, 29 May 2012 - 11:37 AM.

[reggiecleveland]

He didn't. He lumped Ross with those guys.

Generally OBP is more reliable than slugging. It is possible the guys that have showed a lot of power(Aviles, Ross) will decline a bit. Hopeuflly Gonzalez starts to hit with enough power to counteract some regession from the others.

[deconstruction]

He didn't. He lumped Ross with those guys.

Generally OBP is more reliable than slugging. It is possible the guys that have showed a lot of power(Aviles, Ross) will decline a bit. Hopeuflly Gonzalez starts to hit with enough power to counteract some regession from the others.

OP did.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Well, this is only going to get worse with Pedroia replaced by Punto (or Ciriaco, or Iglesias). Who bats second now?

[Dogman2]

Nava
Sweeney
Ortiz
Youks
Gonzalez
Aviles
Salty
Byrd/Pods
Punto
Puke