194 replies to this topic

[bloodysox]

You expect better than their career averages after coming back from injuries? Yea, thats unreasonable. Especially with Crawford.

When you look at Crawford's 2 years in Tampa before he signed with us, it's not unreasonable. And I fail to see how a .870 OPS is out of the realm of possibility with Ellsbury.

[Toe Nash]

Actually, since he already made a patently awful trade that more or less fit that description and now has somewhere between one (Albers, probably) and six MLB-quality relievers (including Melancon, Bard, Mortensen, Tazawa, and Prior all potentially at Pawtucket) than he can possibly use, I wouldn't call that chance "good."

I liked Lowrie too but he was not a "blue chipper." He was an oft-injured probable backup who hits arbitration next year. And he has a .577 OPS in his last 17 games.

[JMDurron]

Yea, but that's assuming Ellsbury is at last years level -- unlikely, and that Crawford isn't -- also unlikely. I think it'll be a minor miracle if Ellsbury and Crawford average out to over an .800 ops.

That's a little bit overly pessimistic, IMO. All that would require is a 1.000 OPS from Ellsbury, assuming equal PAs.

[Steve Dillard]

Glass half full?
* The Sox have the 2nd largest cash flow so that no matter how much Theo and Ben screw[ed] up the team with horrible ML and MiLB player evaluation since 2007, they still have a major advantage over 28 other teams.
* The 2010-2011 drafts, in contrast with the 2008-09 drafts, seem promising. (Of course, 2012 -- with an even playing field because cash is capped -- seem pretty meh)
* The 2009 and 2011 international signings seem promising, compared to the wasteland of 2003-2008.

[SumnerH]

When you look at Crawford's 2 years in Tampa before he signed with us, it's not unreasonable. And I fail to see how a .870 OPS is out of the realm of possibility with Ellsbury.

Marcel projects Crawford to be right around his career average. His career stats put him (obviously) exactly at his career average.

You're ignoring more recent history _and_ his career numbers to cherry-pick a 2 year sample that includes an obvious career outlier on the upside, and then using that to project future performance--by that standard, Brady Anderson should be a lock to hit 30 HR/year.

And that's even without getting into the fact that he's coming off an injury.

[tims4wins]

And that's even without getting into the fact that he's coming off an injury.

Or the 'fact' that there appears to be a non-remote possiblity that he won't have a single plate appearance this year

[bloodysox]

Marcel projects Crawford to be right around his career average. His career stats put him (obviously) exactly at his career average.

You're ignoring more recent history _and_ his career numbers to cherry-pick a 2 year sample that includes an obvious career outlier on the upside, and then using that to project future performance--by that standard, Brady Anderson should be a lock to hit 30 HR/year.

Let's look at his OPS per year since 2004.

2004: .781
2005: .800
2006: .830
2007: .821
2008: .719
2009: .816
2010: .851
2011: .694

The OPS figures that are in red are the years that appear to be outliers for Crawford. I neglected to include his 2002 and 2003 seasons as they were around 10 years ago and obviously don't represent who Crawford is as a player today.

With all of that said, at this point his expected OPS is around .8096. Obviously you have to take injuries into account and when you do that, an .800 OPS is an optimistic estimation.

But with his most recent setback, there is no reason to be optimistic about him. You are right to expect an OPS around .770, that wouldn't be surprising at all. I just hope we are able to find a taker for his awful contract.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'm sorry, but that makes no sense.

If his .851, .719 and ,694 are outliers, then it makes no sense to estimate a .810 OPS -- he hasn't hit that poorly in one of your non-outlier seasons in the past seven years.

Say instead that he caught the avian flu and will miss the rest of the season, or that his arm is attached by a lego ball-and-joint, or that you don't like him. All of those things make sense. Some more than others.

But if he's healthy, your data posits that he will be good for better than a .810 OPS.

Edited by Buzzkill Pauley, 07 July 2012 - 09:55 PM.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Glass half full?
* The Sox have the 2nd largest cash flow so that no matter how much Theo and Ben screw[ed] up the team with horrible ML and MiLB player evaluation since 2007, they still have a major advantage over 28 other teams.

Do they still? NESN's ratings must be plunging this year, they're not going to be able to charge advertisers what they used to. They've probably maxed out on ticket revenues and might even be looking at future declines as ticket sales start to reflect the mediocrity of the product on the field.

Meanwhile, teams like the Rangers have drastically increased their cash flow recently, haven't they? Aren't the Rangers now enjoying (or about to enjoy) their own TV bonanza?

[bloodysox]

I'm sorry, but that makes no sense.

If his .851, .719 and ,694 are outliers, then it makes no sense to estimate a .810 OPS -- he hasn't hit that poorly in one of your non-outlier seasons in the past seven years.

A poster argued with me that expecting a .800 OPS from Crawford is overly optimistic. I think it's a reasonable projection coming off of an injury. You believe that it's more on the pessimistic side, which is understandable but when you consider the injuries that he has sustained and his struggles dealing with the pressure of Boston, .800 seems the most likely.

And no, I don't dislike Crawford. I actually really like him as a person and I think that he is bashed far too often. Though I do hate the contract.

[Lynchie]

This year is still up for grabs in the ALE. I think we have seen that we have some serious depth in the ranks. Yes, the season has been frustrating but on the bright side we have been able to compete without our best players. I still think we can get into the hunt for the division title -never mind the wild card. Hoping for the wild card is for also-rans. I want first place. This team can do it with fundamentals. I believe this team can and will win. Are we the Yankees? NO, thank God we are not. People just like to crap all over this team and they are doing the best they can. If we get behind them they can do more. I know this to be true. I like it when the baseball world under estimates us. These guys are playing their asses off and I like it! Soon they will jell and people will be saying, "How are they doing it?" Well I will say, because they are playing their asses off, thats how!

[tims4wins]

Not sure if this is glass half full or empty, but the Sox pythag has them at an expected record of 47.5 and 38.5. This would put them one game behind the Angels for the 1st WC spot, and an expected wins for the season of 89.5. These are all glass half full stats.

The problem is they haven't played to their pythag, so even if they maintain the same RS/RA ratio during the second half and play exactly to their pythag, they have "lost" 4.5 games off those 89.5 expected wins during the first half, which would mean they'd only win 85, which probably won't be good enough for the 2nd WC.

[Reverend]

I don't know how to project Crawford given the wild variance in his recent numbers and the confounding variables of injury and changing locales, but to refer to three of the last four (of eight) data points as "outliers" is to do violence to the very concept the word denotes.

On fact, the large degree of variance obscures how we would even understand what an outlier would be for him; right now, I think he's a mystery. That said, betting on mysteries is straight up gambling.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Not sure if this is glass half full or empty, but the Sox pythag has them at an expected record of 47.5 and 38.5. This would put them one game behind the Angels for the 1st WC spot, and an expected wins for the season of 89.5. These are all glass half full stats.

And, as always, the question is: why? Statistical fluke? Poor managing? Bad bullpen? The dreaded "unclutchness" of the hitters? It's probably a combination of all of those things. I can't remember a single game this season that the Red Sox won but really shouldn't have, but I can come up with a handful that they had no business losing but did. They're also at the bottom of the league in blown save % (i.e. they have lots of blown saves), despite the overall quality of the pen. There does seem to be some indication that the batters get worse in close games, tight situations, but whether that's predictive or not is, again, critical. You can take what you want from it. This team certainly looks to me like they're not having much fun, feel a ton of pressure to succeed, and blow it in close situations more often than they should, but it's just as likely a bunch of one-run losses and losses in extra innings that could've gone either way.

[tims4wins]

And, as always, the question is: why? Statistical fluke? Poor managing? Bad bullpen? The dreaded "unclutchness" of the hitters? It's probably a combination of all of those things. I can't remember a single game this season that the Red Sox won but really shouldn't have, but I can come up with a handful that they had no business losing but did. They're also at the bottom of the league in blown save % (i.e. they have lots of blown saves), despite the overall quality of the pen. There does seem to be some indication that the batters get worse in close games, tight situations, but whether that's predictive or not is, again, critical. You can take what you want from it. This team certainly looks to me like they're not having much fun, feel a ton of pressure to succeed, and blow it in close situations more often than they should, but it's just as likely a bunch of one-run losses and losses in extra innings that could've gone either way.

EV had a great post last week about how the hitters have one of the highest runs created in the league, but are low in WPA, suggesting exactly as you said: they mash when ahead, but struggle to hit when behind.

[Steve Dillard]

To refine that point further (and show why pythagorean models don't fit well), last week there was a post about how the batters hit well off bad pitchers, but hit poorly against good pitchers. (I wish I could find it, but can't locate it on the web). Assuming I remember that stat correctly, that fits in with the fact that mop-up pitchers are in blowouts, so you can pad your runs and stats in blowouts, but in close games the pitchers are better, so they struggle.
Rather than latching on "clutchness" as the variable, how about basic opposing pitcher skills.

[Eric Van]

To refine that point further (and show why pythagorean models don't fit well), last week there was a post about how the batters hit well off bad pitchers, but hit poorly against good pitchers. (I wish I could find it, but can't locate it on the web). Assuming I remember that stat correctly, that fits in with the fact that mop-up pitchers are in blowouts, so you can pad your runs and stats in blowouts, but in close games the pitchers are better, so they struggle.
Rather than latching on "clutchness" as the variable, how about basic opposing pitcher skills.

I think that was just a hypothesis to explain the observed difference in hitting when ahead versus tied and behind, and it's all in the glass-half-empty thread. I actually suggested it as far back as the "Feast or Famine" thread, and it's still waiting for data to back it up. But I do think that there are guys who do all their damage against weaker pitching. Drew, for instance, was league-average versus the better half of pitchers when we acquired him -- but he had killed the lesser half.

[dbn]

All they have to do is sweep the best team in baseball this weekend to clinch a 0.500 or better record at the trade deadline!

[Remagellan]

Someone stole Wally..and now he's been found.

Maybe this belongs in the other thread...

Edited by Remagellan, 27 July 2012 - 03:09 PM.

[Eric Van]

For a while there, we had the toughest remaining schedule of all the W/C contenders, but after 8 games of that, we're over much of that hump

This is remaining Strength of Schedule in terms of shortfall in wins versus playing .500 clubs.

3.1 LAA
2.6 NYA
2.5 Tex
2.4 Tor
2.4 Oak
2.3 Bos
2.2 TB
1.8 Bal
1.3 Cle
0.7 Det
0.4 ChA

(The average AL SoS, for the whole season, is 3.9, while the NL is -3.7. Yankees have the toughest in baseball at 5.4, Cardinals the easiest at -6.7.)

We're 3.5 games behind Oakland for the second W/C, but 90% rectification of karma, with neither team playing differently, would close that to 1.7 games. And the one year I checked, first-half karma had no predictive value at all for second-half karma.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Clay Buchholz has now pitched 7 or more innings and given up 2 or fewer earned runs in five consecutive starts. He has quality starts in 9 of his last 11 outings, dating back to May 27. His ERA over those 11 starts is 2.08.

[Eric Van]

Clay Buchholz has now pitched 7 or more innings and given up 2 or fewer earned runs in five consecutive starts. He has quality starts in 9 of his last 11 outings, dating back to May 27. His ERA over those 11 starts is 2.08.

His WPA of 2.31 over that stretch would essentially have him tied for 6th in MLB -- for the whole year.

[bosockboy]

Buchholz needs to take the lead as our ace next year....definitely a good sign for 2013.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Since the start of the July 7th game (the point at which it appears Gonzalez started turning it around), until the start of today's game, Adrian has had a .632 SLG and was hitting a home run every 20.17 PAs. That's compared to a .410 SLG and a home run every 60.16 PAs for the season up until that point. If we include today's game and assume one more PA without a home run before the day is done, his PA/HR improves to 17.86.

His career PA/HR is 23.32 and before this season it was 22.29. Now, obviously he's on a tear and won't be maintaining a .632 SLG, but I feel much better about his power game for next season than I did a month ago.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 12 August 2012 - 03:52 PM.

[JakeRae]

Lester just had his first double digit strikeout game of the season, proving that he can still dominate while throwing in the upper 80's and low 90's.

[Savin Hillbilly]

EDIT: Moved to the Lester thread.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 12 August 2012 - 08:02 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

The Sox should have their highest draft pick since Nomar. So they have that going for them.

[CaptainLaddie]

Pedro Ciriaco seems like a good find.

[ShaneTrot]

Part of me wants to feel bad for Valentine because this team sucks from top to bottom but he always so smug on ESPN that its kind of fun to see him get the knife in the gut.

But seriously, play the kids, why are Iglesias, Wilson, and Kalish in AAA? Put Linares on the 40 man and call him up.

Edited by ShaneTrot, 23 August 2012 - 11:23 PM.

[Cuzittt]

But seriously, play the kids, why are Iglesias, Wilson, and Kalish in AAA? Put Linares on the 40 man and call him up.

Well, until September, we only have a 25 man roster. Besides, Pawtucket actually has something to play for... they are currently in a playoff race.

[jsinger121]

Well, until September, we only have a 25 man roster. Besides, Pawtucket actually has something to play for... they are currently in a playoff race.

Evaluating players for the 2013 is more important than winning the international league. Players with a chance for a spot in 2013 need to be up on September 1st.

[Cuzittt]

Evaluating players for the 2013 is more important than winning the international league. Players with a chance for a spot in 2013 need to be up on September 1st.

Of course there will be players up on September 1st. There will be players up once the Minor League season ends as well. This is just normal.

That being said, there is something to be said about instilling a winning attitude. Competing for a playoff spot is certainly better than playing for next year in my opinion.

[Hokie Sox]

Of course there will be players up on September 1st. There will be players up once the Minor League season ends as well. This is just normal.

That being said, there is something to be said about instilling a winning attitude. Competing for a playoff spot is certainly better than playing for next year in my opinion.

The team is 8.5 games back with 6 teams ahead of them and 37 games left to play. Unless everyone on this team suffers from split-personality disorder and wakes up today with their asses on fire, I see no reason to bother with playoff speculation.

Call up the kids.. they can't be any worse.

[jsinger121]

Of course there will be players up on September 1st. There will be players up once the Minor League season ends as well. This is just normal.

That being said, there is something to be said about instilling a winning attitude. Competing for a playoff spot is certainly better than playing for next year in my opinion.

Getting players like Jose Iglesias and Ryan Kalish major league at-bats starting September 1st is what I am about and what the organization should be about as they get these guys ready for 2013. Let's see if they can get some success with consistent playing time in the majors in September instead of wasting at-bats in Pawtucket for a meaningless playoff spot. This organization shouldn't be about winning International League titles or Eastern League titles or any other minor league titles. Its about developing these players and getting them ready to help the Boston Red Sox win another World Series.

[dynomite]

The team is 8.5 games back with 6 teams ahead of them and 37 games left to play. Unless everyone on this team suffers from split-personality disorder and wakes up today with their asses on fire, I see no reason to bother with playoff speculation.

Call up the kids.. they can't be any worse.

They're talking about the AAA playoffs, not the Major League playoffs.

Yes, THAT's how poorly this season has gone.

[Toe Nash]

Evaluating players for the 2013 is more important than winning the international league. Players with a chance for a spot in 2013 need to be up on September 1st.

Pawtucket currently has a 1/2 game lead on the IL wild card. I think there may be some value in competing for that with the team the guys have had all year. The MLB needs outweigh those of Pawtucket but minor-league playoff experience isn't worthless.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The Sea Dogs are 16-5 in August. Come up to Portland and watch some kids who are really on fire (Xander is 340/364/679/1043 in his first 53 ABs in AA). Weather's nice, too...

[Cuzittt]

Pawtucket currently has a 1/2 game lead on the IL wild card. I think there may be some value in competing for that with the team the guys have had all year. The MLB needs outweigh those of Pawtucket but minor-league playoff experience isn't worthless.

It also should be noted that the IL Regular Season ends on Labor Day (September 3rd). So, we aren't really talking about a large amount of time where I would keep certain players away from Boston.

If the Pawsox make the playoffs, some of the Portland regulars can come up for the Pawsox in the playoffs (winning the playoffs isn't as important as making it)... assuming a miracle doesn't happen and Portland also makes the playoffs.

[trekfan55]

Part of me wants to feel bad for Valentine because this team sucks from top to bottom but he always so smug on ESPN that its kind of fun to see him get the knife in the gut.

But seriously, play the kids, why are Iglesias, Wilson, and Kalish in AAA? Put Linares on the 40 man and call him up.

I like Linares a lot, but do they have to add him to the 40 man this offseason? If not, I do not think that will happen.

I do want to see Iglesias, Kalish (he needs to audition for the full time role), Lin, and some pitchers up.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

If the Pawsox make the playoffs, some of the Portland regulars can come up for the Pawsox in the playoffs (winning the playoffs isn't as important as making it)... assuming a miracle doesn't happen and Portland also makes the playoffs.

Hey, 3.5 out with 11 to play? It could happen...

[Eric Van]

Part of me wants to feel bad for Valentine because this team sucks from top to bottom but he always so smug on ESPN that its kind of fun to see him get the knife in the gut.

Can we put an end to this bullshit nonsense, once and for all? There's no question in my mind that, even with the historic run of injuries, vintage 2004-7 Tito has this team in the thick of the wild card hunt (an opinion that can be backed up with plenty of analysis, starting with the worst-in-MLB ability to turn hitting and pitching stats into victories, currently at -7.6 wins). Do not confuse the talent on the team (after injuries but including Youkilis to begin the season) with the results that the talent is getting. The former is plenty good enough; only the latter sucks. And, you know what? When the two are dramatically different, it's usually the manager you want to credit or blame.

[Harry Hooper]

Daniel Bard pitched last night and didn't kill anyone.

[In my lifetime]

Clearly the best thing that has happened this year is that the Red Sox gained payroll flexibility. Now they have the ability to make the necessary changes to this team. And with the new CBA, there is even more importance placed on spending smart.

[Savin Hillbilly]

The Sox are now 10 games below .500 with 28 remaining. In order to avoid finishing below .500 they will have to go 19-9 with a schedule that includes the final 15 games vs. BAL, TBR & NYY. So I think we can say with confidence that the Sox will end up a losing team for the first time in 15 years and (more to the point) the first time in the Henry/Werner/Lucchino era.

Why am I posting this in the glass half full thread? Because I suspect a losing record will (justly or otherwise) be the coup de grace for Valentine, and to me that will be very good news.

[JMDurron]

The Red Sox are now tied for the #10 overall pick with the San Diego Padres, meaning that if they can out-suck San Diego down the stretch, the Sox should have a protected draft pick for the offseason FA period. I'm not in love with the FA options available, but it's still a handy capability to have in the event that the FO disagrees with me on one or more qualifying offer-level players.