194 replies to this topic

[bosockboy]

The Red Sox catchers lead the AL in OPS with 0.868, well ahead of the second place Chicago at 0.814.

The catching situation is pretty damn favorable after years of problems. Aceves is the big thing for me right now....this guy is nails and his ability for multiple 4 out saves every week is an incredible weapon.

[bosockboy]

Bright future wise......22 of next 31 at home. Pretty fortuitous to get that stretch at the peak of injury hell.

[mauidano]

Tough few games coming up with TB and Detroit. Two very good teams. I like our chances at home and with two nights and a solid day off after Wednesday. Let the guys rest, hang with the family. See you on Friday at the park. Be fresh and ready to roll, good momentum built up. Let's do this thing.

[bball831]

Tough few games coming up with TB and Detroit. Two very good teams. I like our chances at home and with two nights and a solid day off after Wednesday. Let the guys rest, hang with the family. See you on Friday at the park. Be fresh and ready to roll, good momentum built up. Let's do this thing.

Detroit has been awful of late. After starting 9-3 they have gone 11-20 with a -27 run differential in those games.

[dbn]

Detroit has been awful of late. After starting 9-3 they have gone 11-20 with a -27 run differential in those games.

Maybe they just need to play teams like the Red Sox again. (Wrong thread?)

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

They are only two games off their Pythag. If they were simply playing exactly to their expected W-L, which I expect they will as the season progresses, they would be sitting in the 2nd Wild Card spot right now -- a playoff team!

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Chad Finn, today:

7. Alfredo Aceves since his five-runs-without-recording-an-out disaster during the Sox' April 21 meltdown against the Yankees: 18.2 innings, 13 hits, 2 earned runs, 5 walks, 19 strikeouts. Yep, I'd say he's taken to the closer's role just fine, and I'm glad there's no hesitance by Bobby Valentine to use him for more than three outs at a time since one of his strengths is his ability to pitch multiple innings without requiring much rest.

I'd dare say those numbers are Papelbon-esque.

[SumnerH]

They are only two games off their Pythag. If they were simply playing exactly to their expected W-L, which I expect they will as the season progresses, they would be sitting in the 2nd Wild Card spot right now -- a playoff team!

One should expect them to perform to their expected W-L going forward, but not to exceed it by 2 games--or to rephrase, for the year (including the portion already booked) you'd now expect them to finish 2 games below their Pythag.

[mfried]

Chad Finn, today:



I'd dare say those numbers are Papelbon-esque.

Thanks for invoking the sacred name. I think Aceves is the most talented pitcher on the Red Sox - he has excellent stuff, locates well, and is productively unpredictable in ways that make opposing hitters' lives hell.

[Lynchie]

This team will battle anyone's pitching and go toe to toe with 'better' lineups. Should the pitching continue to do the job I'll take my chances with the team we have. They will hopefully only get better with health.


(null)

[EastCoasterOutWest]

Thanks for invoking the sacred name. I think Aceves is the most talented pitcher on the Red Sox - he has excellent stuff, locates well, and is productively unpredictable in ways that make opposing hitters' lives hell.

So I guess the question is, what becomes of the closer role when Bailey is back? Aceves 8th, Bailey 9th?

[dbn]

So I guess the question is, what becomes of the closer role when Bailey is back? Aceves 8th, Bailey 9th?

Closer by committee. Also, a six-man rotation, Youkilis in LF and lots and lots of Nickolas Punto pinch-bunting.

[MikeM]

So I guess the question is, what becomes of the closer role when Bailey is back? Aceves 8th, Bailey 9th?

If Aceves keeps it up, i can't see "has yet to throw a meaningful inning here" Bailey getting an obligatory nod there. Without the kind of contract/commitment behind him to force the issue, Bailey will be the one regulated to setup duty imo.

Of course, things get a lot more questionable if/when the Bard experiment gets scratched.

[Rasputin]

If Aceves keeps it up, i can't see "has yet to throw a meaningful inning here" Bailey getting an obligatory nod there. Without the kind of contract/commitment behind him to force the issue, Bailey will be the one regulated to setup duty imo.

Of course, things get a lot more questionable if/when the Bard experiment gets scratched.

Not really.

You dump Melancon, Bard and Bailey into the 'pen and let their performance dictate which innings they get.

[dwainw]

If Aceves keeps it up, i can't see "has yet to throw a meaningful inning here" Bailey getting an obligatory nod there. Without the kind of contract/commitment behind him to force the issue, Bailey will be the one regulated to setup duty imo.

Of course, things get a lot more questionable if/when the Bard experiment gets scratched.

Agreed. Besides, Bailey will likely get his job back when Aceves inevitably requires some time off around his 90th appearance in--say--August. Assuming his arm is still attached.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Since the 4-10 start to the season, we've won 21 of 35, for a .600 winning percentage. We've also quietly won 13 out of our last 18.

And we're a game above .500.

[deconstruction]

An updated plug for Nava here. He might not maintain a ~.900 OPS, but he's not getting lucky (.310 BABIP before tonight) and he has an approach that seems to work against anyone. He's only swinging at a ridiculous 16.2% of pitches outside of the zone and making contact on strikes at a good clip (>90%). His SwStr% is less than 5%. So he makes good contact, doesn't really swing at bad pitches, and has some power (.204 ISO).

[Andrew]

That is basically what he has done in every level of baseball he has played in. I know he cooled off greatly in 2010, but that might have been more the product of what most rookies go through rather than him actually lacking talent.

I think he has what it takes to be a legitimate major league ballplayer, at the very least a 4th or 5th outfielder on a good team. I know McDonald is on the team because of his handedness, but you have to think that Nava is just a superior ballplayer. I can't imagine dropping Nava when McDonald comes back.

Nava has played ever inning of every game since he got called up. Between that and being slotted in the lead-off hole the past few games it seems that Valentine trusts him.

[behindthepen]

just to follow up on my previous post about winning the division .. as of today on coolstandings.com, here are the expected wins:
TB 86
TOR 85
BOS 85
BAL 85
ny 84

[Lose Remerswaal]

Wow.

And the final 24 Sox games this year are all in the division:

3 home, 3 away against each, except 4 away, 2 home vs. TB

[redsoxstiff]

On the half full side...

I'm dull enough to have ASSumed that since Bard was so good aa set-up man and in the majors awhile...that he knows how to pitch
He is unlearning and learning every day...I think that after the all-star game we can expect an improved if not "normal" Bard...

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

just to follow up on my previous post about winning the division .. as of today on coolstandings.com, here are the expected wins:
TB 86
TOR 85
BOS 85
BAL 85
ny 84

I do not think that BAL's starting pitching will hold up enough for them to win 85 games.

Interestingly enough, every team in the AL is within 5.5 games of a playoff spot except MIN.

If the starting pitching holds up, I see no reason why the Sox won't be in the post-season.

[Rasputin]

If the starting pitching holds up, I see no reason why the Sox won't be in the post-season.

And if the pitching holds up and the team is mostly healthy heading into the postseason then it has to be one of the favorites to win depending on the whole wild card thing.

[Plympton91]

I'm not going to say that Andrew Miller is emerging as a dominant lefthanded set-up man with the combination of a simplified repetoire and regular usage appearing to dramatically improve his command, because doing so would jinx him.

[lexrageorge]

Youks since returning from the DL: .321/.387/.535 with 2 HR's. Granted, SSS, but definitely better than his April.

[millionthcustomer]

I'll chime in here with a glass-half-full view of Bobby V. He's taken over a job from a players' coach who won two World Series, and has quietly settled in lately. Yes, it was a rocky start, but I have no qualms with him right now - I guess that winning does cure many ills.

Basically, he's not nearly the distraction I thought he'd be. And, I have no problem with him clamping down on Youks and Beckett when he needed to.

[Eric Van]

Minimum 90 PA

Name	Team	G	fWAR	fWAR/150
Josh Hamilton	Rangers	48	3.9	12.2
Austin Jackson	Tigers	36	2.5	10.4
David Wright	Mets	48	3.3	10.3
Daniel Nava	Red Sox	22	1.4	9.5
Adam Jones	Orioles	52	3.3	9.5
Mike Trout	Angels	31	1.9	9.2
Matt Kemp	Dodgers	36	2.2	9.2
A.J. Ellis	Dodgers	41	2.5	9.1
Carlos Ruiz	Phillies	46	2.8	9.1
Ryan Braun	Brewers	49	2.9	8.9

When I saw the preview of this, I swear, I laughed out loud. You couldn't script either the first-pitch grand-slam or this as the payoff to his life story without straining credulity, but to combine them both in the same story with a non-invitation to ST sandwiched in between -- you'd get laughed out of the Screenwriter's Guild.

[bosockboy]

Nava is such a good story I don't care about Crawford coming back.....and when he does you'd have to think Nava has won a permanent bench spot as a 5th OF.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Once Ellsbury, Ross, or Crawford return, Nava has to be the answer to every question about the first bat off the bench this season.

And hopefully the next, too.

[luckysox]

I'd platoon Ross and Sweeney in right and keep Nava in left until Crawford returns...IF he returns. Nava and Sweeney vs. righties and Nava and Ross vs. lefties is better than any other combo. If he starts sucking outright, then you change things up.

Edited by luckysox, 02 June 2012 - 10:29 AM.

[Noah]

I'd platoon Ross and Sweeney in right and keep Nava in left until Crawford returns...IF he returns. Nava and Sweeney vs. righties and Nava and Ross vs. lefties is better than any other combo. If he starts sucking outright, then you change things up.

Can Nava play any RF? If he keeps this up, I'd have to think he'll take ABs away from Sweeney once everyone's healthy.

[Doctor G]

Nava batting left is a reasonable facsimile of former nemesis Frank Catalanotto. I'l take that anyday.

[TomRicardo]

Can Nava play any RF? If he keeps this up, I'd have to think he'll take ABs away from Sweeney once everyone's healthy.

Passably. More so that Adrian Gonzalez.

[rembrat]

Nava plays Fenway's LF like he has been doing it all his life. He might have an issue occasionally throwing to the cutoff man but I've given up expecting that from Boston outfielders.

[HillysLastWalk]

I'll chime in here with a glass-half-full view of Bobby V. He's taken over a job from a players' coach who won two World Series, and has quietly settled in lately. Yes, it was a rocky start, but I have no qualms with him right now - I guess that winning does cure many ills.

Basically, he's not nearly the distraction I thought he'd be. And, I have no problem with him clamping down on Youks and Beckett when he needed to.

+1. While watching today's game, it struck me that it seems as if Bobby Excels at bullpen management (which would play into his past as someone who manages above win expectancy). And that they calmly whethered the bad times and have galvanized to a really good team.

And does McClure get any credit? At the beginning of this season the Bailey injury really threw a monkey wrench into things and they had to scramble and redefine roles. In addition, this bullpen was a disaster. Now ... with help from this coaching staff ... they have settled into a strength. On their watch, Doobie has developed into a very good starting pitcher, Bard might have taken a step forward in his last start, Padilla is having a hell if a year, Miller actually looks really good, so on and so forth. Its pretty amazing. There was a lot of criticism of these two. Especially Bobby.

Edited by HillysLastWalk, 02 June 2012 - 08:37 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

It seems like once Cherington removed the temptation of putting Justin Thomas into major league games, Bobby has been a maestro putting relievers in at the right time ever since. He can get a little platoon-matchup heavy in the 6th and 7th, but he's got the depth to do so and hot damn it's working.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It seems like once Cherington removed the temptation of putting Justin Thomas into major league games, Bobby has been a maestro putting relievers in at the right time ever since. He can get a little platoon-matchup heavy in the 6th and 7th, but he's got the depth to do so and hot damn it's working.

More like once BobbyV realized he didn't have a lefty arm good enough to appoint for a traditional 8th-inning set-up role, and started playing match-ups with his 3 LHP & 3 RHP non-closers.

Plus -- handedness aside -- the talent increase from Bowden/Thomas to Hill/Miller is pretty significant.

[Pumpsie]

Plus -- handedness aside -- the talent increase from Bowden/Thomas to Hill/Miller is pretty significant.

Bingo! You have to use ALL 25 guys on the roster. You can't avoid players and play with a 24 or 23 man roster because that'll bite you as the season wears on. Once Cherington removed all the experiments and debris from the roster, things have been going much better. The players make you look good or make you look bad. The m.o. of the front office in the Theo/Ben years has been to be willing to sacrifice some games early in the season to figure out what you have in an extended ST and keep as many possibilities open as you can, especially in regards to pitching. That's part of the reason we've gotten off to bad starts recently, IMO. I also think that Bobby V. has used Punto as little as he's had to, but when he HAS to use him, like when Youks or Pedey are out, he uses him. No blame there....well, no blame on Bobby, that is. Still think Punto's been a Cherington goof. But losing Bowden and Thomas and replacing them with Miller and Hill has been a BIG plus for the team...and Bobby. And as the injured come back, and players like Byrd and McDonald get DFA'd things will get even easier for the manager.

[Doctor G]

it was nice to see the reaction of the team to Punto's game yesterday.Sort of like finally getting the 25th and last man into the lifeboat after the shipwreck of early May.

[dbn]

The backups.

Red Sox not in the starting lineup opening day have hit for a combined OPS of ~0.747¹, which, compared to an total AL average OPS of 0.728, is pretty good for backups. That doesn't even include either Ross or Sweeney. If you include Ross it climbs to 0.775.

Edit to add that the 0.747 number is based on 513 ABs (compare to the Red Sox leader in ABs, Aviles, with 217), so the contribution has been rather significant.

¹ Excluding pitchers and doing the calculation approximately by computing the AB-weighted avg of individual OPS values.

Edited by dbn, 03 June 2012 - 05:23 PM.

[fineyoungarm]

A slightly different slant, is that so far it has been a great season to be a dedicated fan - tough sledding, yet only 3 games out, new controversial manager (who appears to be adept at handling his bull pen - after all), new stealthy GM (who has done some effective tinkering - see Justin Thomas), confirmation that owner is odd, key every day player amid trade rumors, bull pen excellence, starting rotation schizophrenia, injuries to key players contrasted with some of their replacements such as a possible emerging star at third and non-entities that have shown up in a superior fashion - so now they are to be reckoned with (youth!), a scape goat for virtually everything (not sure I have seen the likes of it since Norm Seiburn), talk of snitches and surliness - yet, again, only 3 games out and no obvious miscreants on the team (at least on the 40 man roster).

[dbn]

Edit to add that the 0.747 number is based on 513 ABs (compare to the Red Sox leader in ABs, Aviles, with 217), so the contribution has been rather significant.

Or, to put it another way, 27% of the total ABs for the Red Sox this season.

[behindthepen]

Half Full: regardelss of our results, we get to see Stephen Strasburg pitch Friday night. and the pride of Las Vegas, Bryce Harper.

[fineyoungarm]

Half Full: regardelss of our results, we get to see Stephen Strasburg pitch Friday night. and the pride of Las Vegas, Bryce Harper.

I reserve my rights, such as they are, to suspend for one game each season my dislike of interleague play.

[Savin Hillbilly]

Resurrecting this thread to get on the Atchison bandwagon. Atchison now ranks as follows among 79 qualified AL relievers according to Fangraphs:

ERA: 6th
FIP: 11th
WAR: 6th
HR/9: 9th
HR/FB: 11th
GB%: 14th
BB/9: 18th
WHIP: 18th

Right now he's the best relief pitcher on the Red Sox (with the possible exception of Andrew Miller ), and arguably one of the dozen or so best RP's in the league.

[Joshv02]

Third best pythag (or 2rd order pythag) in the AL, 2.5 (pythag) games behind the NYY. (Barely) Fourth best using 3rd order wins, ~1/2 (fake) game behind the Angels.

[JimD]

Playoff odds this morning:

BP - 32.3 percent, (6th highest in AL); wild-card 30.3% (3rd highest behind LAA and TB)

Coolstandings - 43.2 percent (4th highest in AL); wild-card 27.7% (2nd highest behind LAA; 5 to 7 points ahead of the other three AL East teams)

If the Sox could count on a return to health after the ASB by Ellsbury, Buchholz and Bailey, a rebound by Gonzo and Bard to at least some level of performance closer to their career norms, and avoid adding any more key players to this season's ridiculous parade to the DL, I could certainly see them playing at a .575 pace down the stretch and maybe even putting a little pressure on the Yankees.

[Rasputin]

Playoff odds this morning:

BP - 32.3 percent, (6th highest in AL); wild-card 30.3% (3rd highest behind LAA and TB)

Coolstandings - 43.2 percent (4th highest in AL); wild-card 27.7% (2nd highest behind LAA; 5 to 7 points ahead of the other three AL East teams)

If the Sox could count on a return to health after the ASB by Ellsbury, Buchholz and Bailey, a rebound by Gonzo and Bard to at least some level of performance closer to their career norms, and avoid adding any more key players to this season's ridiculous parade to the DL, I could certainly see them playing at a .575 pace down the stretch and maybe even putting a little pressure on the Yankees.

The Red Sox are currently on a pace to win about 85 games. Things have stabilized. I think the current team can hit 90 with none of those guys coming back.

Some of them will.

We got a halfways decent chance to win this thing.

[ctsoxfan5]

If the Sox could count on a return to health after the ASB by Ellsbury, Buchholz and Bailey, a rebound by Gonzo and Bard to at least some level of performance closer to their career norms, and avoid adding any more key players to this season's ridiculous parade to the DL, I could certainly see them playing at a .575 pace down the stretch and maybe even putting a little pressure on the Yankees.

Even without the injured players and with the underperformances by several guys that you mention, they've played at a .583 pace for the past 60 games. Since the 4-10 start, the Sox are 35-25. Of course, that includes several players performing above and beyond what should be expected, and you have to anticipate some regression.

[Koufax]

I guess you're not counting on Carl Crawford for much. Given that this is the glass half full thread, his imminent return must count for something.