194 replies to this topic

[In my lifetime]

Granted last season ended poorly and this season has not started auspiciously, however the threads here are depressing me. If I need to be depressed I'll read the Wall Street Journal. For chrissakes, people are complaining about the Adrian Gonzalez trade in which the RS gave up 4 prospects (Rizzo has been traded after batting .141 with Padres, Patterson - released, Fuentes - not lighting the minors on fire and Kelley remains a good, but certainly not a can't-miss prospect).

So in this thread things are looking up. 9 positives right off the top of the bat.

1. Papi
2. Sweeney
3 WMB
4. Ross
5 Doubront
6. Pedroia
7. Aceves after the 1st week of the season
8. A significant amount of sucktitude is due to having the RS DL loaded with 2 starting OFers, closer, all star third baseman, 4th and 5th staters. Not sure any other team would do any better with the magnitutide of the injuries.
9. Bullpen is now looking serviceable. If Bailey comes back and stakes claim to the closer role, the bullpen actually could be a strength.


So what trades have worked out, who will soon be off the disabled list to help the team, what prospects are looking especially promising, who is playing good baseball, what brilliant moves has BV and the front office made or generally any Red Sox news that gets me off the ledge to safety?

[mabrowndog]

I'd add "Aviles" to the list. Granted he's ice cold of late (.214/.253/.314/.568 in 75 PA over his last 16 games), but he's brought some pop to the lineup. The 11-game run he had from April 14-26 was monstrous (.370/.408/.739/1.147 w. 5 Db & 4 HR in 50 PA). Even with his feast or famine plate numbers, his overall .269/.303/.448/.751 line exceeds the AL's year-to-date line for shortstops (.250/.305/.360/.665). Plus in 30 high-leverage PA he's produced at a .310/.333/.586/.920 clip, and he's got a .284/.324/.510/.834 line in 109 PA in the leadoff spot (vs .250/.267/.286/.553 in 35 PA batting elsewhere in the order).

And while he isn't Iglesias defensively he hasn't exactly sucked in the field. He's fundamentally sound, turns the DP well, positions himself properly for cutoffs, and has an above-average arm. A solid shortstop by any measure.

He's under club control through 2014. There's a long way to go, but for a guy acquired for Yamaico Navarro & Kendall Volz, this is clearly a trade that's worked out -- and I'm confident we'll still view it that way in hindsight.

Edited by mabrowndog, 13 May 2012 - 12:21 PM.

[tims4wins]

I'd add Bard, to some degree. It hasn't been perfect, it hasn't even been all positive, but I think he has shown enough to prove that he will be a valuable starting pitcher for this team over the long haul. I feel reasonably confident that he will be a sub-4.00 ERA (or FIP or xFIP or whatever you want to use) pitcher going forward.

[Sprowl]

Rich Hill's recovery from TJ has been a pleasant surprise. Occasionally his command has been off, but his velocity is up to 93 on the fastball, and most lefties still flinch every time he releases the slurve.

From IML's list, Doubront may be the biggest positive surprise. He has outstanding command of the fastball, and can stay on the edges of the strike zone all game long. I've been a Doubront fan since the Doubardelbon days of 2010, but I didn't think he'd be this good as a starter.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Middlebrooks has been the high point of the season for me so far. He won't keep up the .641 slugging, obviously, but he's proven that his power translates to the major leagues. I'm feeling much more confident about him being an .800 OPS hitter long term and his at bats right now are can't miss TV. He's just obliterating everything in the strike zone right now.

[sachilles]

Papi is the biggest surprise for me. While he is hitting well, he seems in better shape. He doesn't have dreamboat speed, but is noticably quicker on the bases. I can't help but think the lost weight will pay dividends over the long season. The defense of Aviles is also nice to see.
Not having Bogar at third base coach seems like a positive, but I'm not convinced it is a net gain having him as bench coach.

[Plympton91]

They have had 2 opportunities to quit already this season, and haven't. They fought back from 4-10 to get to 11-11, hit another craptastic stretch, and now they're climbing back to .500 again. I think Valentine is getting comfortable with what he's got, and that will lead to "better" decisions going forward.

I really have liked the way Valentine stays with a reliever pitching well for multiple innings. Given how hard the pen has been ridden, I think long, less frequent outings are preferred to warming up and pitching nearly everyday.

[Ted Cox 4 president]

I'd add Scott Atchison to the list.

[mauidano]

Doubront and Bard. Who would have thought that the 4 & 5 starters would be this solid and the 1,2,3 questionable?

[Plympton91]

Junichi Tazawa healthy and pitching well, including in his major league cameo. Alex Wilson is adjusting well to the bullpen. Lin and Iglesias are showing signs of figuring out what that long wooden stick they carry to the plate is actually used to do.

Jackie Bradley and Matt Barnes are looking a lot like Jacoby Ellsbury and Jonathan Papelbon v2.0

[Eddie Jurak]

If we're talking prospects, add Henry "47 whiffs in 29 IP" Owens to the list.

[absintheofmalaise]

Papi is the biggest surprise for me. While he is hitting well, he seems in better shape. He doesn't have dreamboat speed, but is noticably quicker on the bases. I can't help but think the lost weight will pay dividends over the long season. The defense of Aviles is also nice to see.
Not having Bogar at third base coach seems like a positive, but I'm not convinced it is a net gain having him as bench coach.

Why don't you think that Bogar might not be a good bench coach? He was also in charge of defensive positioning when he coached 3B. I'm not sure if he relinquished those duties to Royster or not.

[E5 Yaz]

We've talked about this in game threads, but the work Ortiz and Pedroia have done to makes teams pay for pitching them away

[Noah]

I'd add Bard, to some degree. It hasn't been perfect, it hasn't even been all positive, but I think he has shown enough to prove that he will be a valuable starting pitcher for this team over the long haul. I feel reasonably confident that he will be a sub-4.00 ERA (or FIP or xFIP or whatever you want to use) pitcher going forward.

I have to disagree with this. To me, starter-Bard is a guy who can't locate his pitches on the corners (even his fastball), and doesn't have the stuff to generate swings and misses and can't strike people out. It's sad, really.

Today, he was bad. The only reason he didn't get lit up is because the Indians happen to hit a whole bunch of line drives right at people.

Edited by Noah, 13 May 2012 - 08:35 PM.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The best part of this season: Os at 22-13, MFYs at 19-15, and Angels at 15-19.

In other words, given the extra wild card team, other than TX, no one is running away with anything, and despite te early season struggles, Red Sox are still in play for the playoffs.

Right now, the Sox's biggest problem is their 1-2-3 starters. I can easily imagine a world where they get back on track, and the Sox start winning 4 out of every 5 starts a few times through the rotation. And if that happens - and if Ells and Crawford and Bailey come back and contribute - I can also imagine a world where the Sox are the best team in the AL East in September.

[JMDurron]

SSS notwithstanding, Andrew Miller is looking like a nice addition to the bullpen lately. Between him and Hill, Morales might be the 3rd LHP in the bullpen if he can't retire any RHHs going forward.

Mike Aviles, specifically his defense. I expected him to hit well enough now that he's not hurt, playing full time, and playing in Fenway Park with a decent supporting cast in the lineup, but his defense, to my totally untrained eye, has been better than I had expected. I was hoping for "it won't hurt...much" and got "hey, he's not bad", which is a nice upgrade.

In a ridiculously SSS, Daniel Nava. I thought the book was out on him after his debut stint with the team in 2010, but he's proving himself to be more than just AAA filler to start this time around. At the very least, he's apparently capable of making some adjustments, so it'll be interesting to see how long he can keep it up.

[bosockboy]

The best part of this season: Os at 22-13, MFYs at 19-15, and Angels at 15-19.

In other words, given the extra wild card team, other than TX, no one is running away with anything, and despite te early season struggles, Red Sox are still in play for the playoffs.

Right now, the Sox's biggest problem is their 1-2-3 starters. I can easily imagine a world where they get back on track, and the Sox start winning 4 out of every 5 starts a few times through the rotation. And if that happens - and if Ells and Crawford and Bailey come back and contribute - I can also imagine a world where the Sox are the best team in the AL East in September.

Yep....unless you believe the O's are in it for the long haul, the Sox have plenty of time to overcome yet another atrocious start.

[sachilles]

Why don't you think that Bogar might not be a good bench coach? He was also in charge of defensive positioning when he coached 3B. I'm not sure if he relinquished those duties to Royster or not.

Why? ...because there is no tangible evidence to suggest that Bogar is either good or bad as his role as bench coach. He enjoys relative anonymity among the coaching staff sharing the blame/credit. Third base coaching duties put you front and center, where blame is easily assigned for mistakes.
He could be the best bench coach ever, but it isn't a role the makes a lot of measurable evidence aside from the teams overall performance. Just like you are unsure whether he relinquished duties to Royster or not, I am unsure what to give him credit/blame for.

[absintheofmalaise]

Why? ...because there is no tangible evidence to suggest that Bogar is either good or bad as his role as bench coach. He enjoys relative anonymity among the coaching staff sharing the blame/credit. Third base coaching duties put you front and center, where blame is easily assigned for mistakes.
He could be the best bench coach ever, but it isn't a role the makes a lot of measurable evidence aside from the teams overall performance. Just like you are unsure whether he relinquished duties to Royster or not, I am unsure what to give him credit/blame for.

That's why I asked. Why did you even bring him up if there is no way to measure his performance?

[sachilles]

That's why I asked. Why did you even bring him up if there is no way to measure his performance?

Because his absence at third base IS a positive and worthy of mention. Whether the team is better off with him at bench coach remains to be seen.

[Toe Nash]

For chrissakes, people are complaining about the Adrian Gonzalez trade in which the RS gave up 4 prospects (Rizzo has been traded after batting .141 with Padres, Patterson - released, Fuentes - not lighting the minors on fire and Kelley remains a good, but certainly not a can't-miss prospect).

Well, that was me, and you ignored my main argument which was that with the money spent on Gonzalez they could have re-signed Beltre and left Youk at first and had an extra $6 mil and the team would overall be better (they weren't just trading for Gonzalez, they were trading for the right to pay him a ton of money which could maybe be better spent on a tougher-to-fill position.

Also Rizzo was poor in his limited MLB time but has absolutely lit up AAA - a 1.053 OPS last year and a 1.073 OPS this year. The only reason he hasn't been given another chance in the majors is because LaHair came out of nowhere and has a 1.100 OPS for the Cubs. And hey, he plays the same position as Adrian.

On the topic of the thread, I'll add Vicente Padilla. Besides the game against the Yankees where no member of the bullpen could get an out, he has a 2.57 ERA and has been pretty versatile, going anywhere from a couple batters to 2+ innings when the situation dictates it. And his eephus is fun to watch.

[absintheofmalaise]

Because his absence at third base IS a positive and worthy of mention. Whether the team is better off with him at bench coach remains to be seen.

Why do you think his absence is a positive? I mean, we all saw the runners that were thrown out at home, but do we know how many runs he might have cost the team by not sending runners or how many fell into the plus side of the ledger because he was aggressive? Here's an interesting article from BPro that makes the case that 3B coaches are not aggressive enough and most cost their teams runs. It was written with information prior to Bogar becoming the 3B coach, but maybe the Sox did the same sort of cost/benefit analysis and reached the same conclusion and Bogar was told to be more aggressive. After all, they did keep him in that position for 2 years and then promoted him to bench coach. I'd think he was viewed pretty positively by the FO, wouldn't you?

[Pearl Wilson]

It's not necessarily a right or wrong thing on its own, just something interesting I noticed while perusing some numbers.

The top 4 doubles-hitters in the AL are all Red Sox.
Ortiz 15
Gonzo 14
Pedroia 13
Sweeney 13
(next guy is Brantley with 12)

They also rank top 4 in the majors but are joined in the rankings by Votto 16, and Yadi Molina (!) at 13.

[TheoShmeo]

The fact that the Sox are going to have to make some tough decisions in the next few weeks is a "glass half filled" event in my eyes.

I like that

- WMD is playing so well that the realistic options include trading or even sitting Youks. It's a problem, to be sure, but a much lesser problem than dying the slow death of witnessing Nick Punto at third.

- When Ells and Crawford return, they may have to figure out how to deal with playing time for Sweeney, Ross and now Nava. That's a far cry from seeing Darnell and his "lower than his weight" batting average in the line-up on a regular basis.

- There's no obvious starter to send to the pen when Daisuke returns. Injuries could "solve" the problem for them, and often do, but as of right now, they will have to force a solution if and when Matsuzaka is ready.

- Mark Melancon has been pretty lights out in the minors and he still can't crack the pen in Boston.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 15 May 2012 - 06:11 AM.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

If we're talking prospects, add Henry "47 whiffs in 29 IP" Owens to the list.

Talk about a raw prospect. 6.44 BB/9 -- but 14.42 K/9!

They ought to bring him up just to scare the crap out of some people.

Seriously, this guy looks pretty interesting.

[Pumpsie]

The fact that the Sox are going to have to make some tough decisions in the next few weeks is a "glass half filled" event in my eyes.

I like that

- WMD is playing so well that the realistic options include trading or even sitting Youks. It's a problem, to be sure, but a much lesser problem than dying the slow death of witnessing Nick Punto at third.

- When Ells and Crawford return, they may have to figure out how to deal with playing time for Sweeney, Ross and now Nava. That's a far cry from seeing Darnell and his "lower than his weight" batting average in the line-up on a regular basis.

- There's no obvious starter to send to the pen when Daisuke returns. Injuries could "solve" the problem for them, and often do, but as of right now, they will have to force a solution if and when Matsuzaka is ready.

- Mark Melancon has been pretty lights out in the minors and he still can't crack the pen in Boston.

Agreed. All "good problems" to have. The tough ones are "what to do with WMB and Youks at third" and "what to do when Dice-K is ready."

WMB may well be sent back down, as hard as that is to contemplate. And, it looks as if Dice-K is not physically ready to come up to the big club even though his clock is up soon and they may ask him to agree to stay down there a while longer which will put off THAT decision a while longer.

The outfield PT issue is a good one to have, and Ross/Sweeney are going to have to platoon, as intended. Melancon is just the "odd man out" of the pen at the moment and will have to wait until something opens up. But, unless there's an injury or someone just craps the bed from here on out, Ben may just have to swing a trade or two to make all this work out. Collectively, this is going to be a test of the front office's intentions and capabilities.

Hopefully, when all this shakes out, Byrd, McDonald, and Punto are elsewhere.

Edited by Pumpsie, 15 May 2012 - 08:13 AM.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

But, unless there's an injury or someone just craps the bed from here on out, Ben may just have to swing a trade or two to make all this work out. Collectively, this is going to be a test of the front office's intentions and capabilities.

Hopefully, when all this shakes out, Byrd, McDonald, and Punto are elsewhere.

I think most of these good problems are going to sort themselves out with performances normalizing. Nava is a ton of fun to watch and I love rooting for him, but he's not this good. He'll cool off at some point. Middlebrooks as well. He's got real power, but he's going to have cold spells too. He was hot as hell when he got called up but has already cooled a bit. He's still very good, though and gives Youk the chance to take as much time as he needs to get healthy, which is great.

Ross and Sweeney I can see continuing to play well, but as you pointed out, they can be platooned like originally planned to increase the chances that they do maintain their level of play.

The pen is hot right now too, but at some point someone is going to come back down to Earth and there will be room for Melancon to come back up. I'll be shocked if they're forced to make a trade to accommodate all the awesome. I'm guessing we'll see Middlebrooks end up back in AAA eventually, with an outfield of Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney and Byrd on the bench with Miller, Padilla, Albers and/or Morales struggling enough to get Melancon and eventually Bailey back in the pen.

I'm guessing down the stretch they'll settle on a roster something like Gonzalez, Pedroia, Aviles, Youk, Salty, Crawford, Ellsbury, Ross/Sweeney, Ortiz with Byrd, Shoppach and Punto on the bench (replaced by Middlebrooks for the playoffs) with Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Matsuzaka, Doubront in the rotation, Bailey, Bard, Melancon and Aceves definitely in the pen and a combination of whomever is playing best out of Albers, Morales, Atchinson, Padilla, Hill and Miller to fill out the remaining four spots. Although, Hill is starting to look like he may be one of the definites.

That's actually a really exciting roster and the only person currently around that they'd be at any risk to lose is McDonald when they're forced to DFA him.

Edit: Of course, they could just cut Byrd and keep McDonald if they would rather have him. Either way, the team isn't really losing much.

Edited by Snodgrass'Muff, 15 May 2012 - 09:27 AM.

[bosockboy]

Yeah the bullpen, after the wretched start, has a chance to be an enormous strength if/when Bailey and Bard are added to it. Atchison/Albers/Padilla have proved to be highly competent 6th/7th inning guys, and Hill/Miller/Morales has pretty serious potential from the left side. Add Aceves and a normalized Melancon (good but not great) and there's plenty of options to build an effective pen. Maybe even Wilson later in the summer as well.

If Buchholz can get it together, the rotation should be fine. If not, I can see them making a deal for a starter like Dempster who can chew some serious innings and not tax the bullpen.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I've started like four replies already, so I keep thinking I've already posted my glass-half full perspective --

• The offense is still among the best in MLB, even with all the injury-time missed by key cogs;
• The 4th and 5th starters have proved adequate at little cost, rather than wasting money on vets;
• Aceves has really grown into the closer's role, and is showing unexpected velocity and K-rate;
• The bullpen has started to excel, now that the pitchers are being asked to perform suitable roles;
• There's exciting farmhands performing better in the minors than we've seen for a long while; and
• Watching kids like Bard, Doubront, Middlebrooks, and Nava have success is really just a lot of fun.

[trekfan55]

From Speier via Twittter

Sox starters have a 1.57 ERA in last five starts.

I know it was Cleveland and Seattle, but it's still good to read. This is how teams get going.

[Snodgrass'Muff]

So they've had 15 games of excellent starting pitching and 21 where it was less than stellar. I agree that this is how teams turn it around, but until the starting pitchers have a string of strong starts against great hitting teams, it's going to be hard for the majority of fans to get too excited about this team's long term chances or playoff hopes.

I still think this is one of the best teams in the majors, and I still think they can end up in that 91-95 win range, but the road there is a lot tougher than I was envisioning during the off season or in spring training.

[brs3]

David Ortiz's transformation over the last 2 seasons has been unbelievable. Between killing LHP, spraying the ball all over the field, and cutting down a ton on his K numbers, he has returned from the dead in 2009. It'll be very interesting to see what happens if he's able to duplicate his 2011 season like it looks like he may.

[Doctor G]

The continued excallence of Dave Magadan as hitting coach should not be overlooked.
The Sox hitters have been the foundation for the continuing string performance of the starting staff.

Plus it is nice to see the coincidental disappearance of the drama concerning the strike zone on the part of the hitters and ppitching staff.

The Red Sox in Philly played like a bunch of guys who took genuine joy in the game, as opposed to the group of guys who looked afraid to win OR lose who had beeen wearing their uniforms from 9/1/11 through 4/30/12.

Maybe this has something to do wth all this blame being placed on Bobby V.

Who knows but they were damned likeable this weekend.

[mauidano]

What great problems to have. An excess of hitting and pitching. We have been challenged with injuries and have been able to fill those holes VERY nicely. Guys have been making the most of their opportunities. A wealth of talent will be hitting the roster in the next month or so. Decisions will work themselves out. Horizon is bright, just gotta hang in there. 8 and 2 our last ten is the best in the majors right now. Big test coming in Baltimore.

[Toe Nash]

How funny that an 8-2 stretch changes players with established records from hated to likeable...

It was great to see Middlebrooks have a good weekend. He had been really struggling. Hopefully if he keeps the power up, he'll see more balls out of the strike zone and can hold back from chasing them. 3:24 BB:K ratio doesn't exactly scream "belongs in the majors" to me.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Salty was hitting .077 on April 20. He's now up to .282 with a 134 OPS+, which is just an outstanding figure.

[JMDurron]

Salty, despite the concerns about his defense behind the plate (I realize that he grades out well in the framing pitches metrics that are out there, but that's still "the book" on him) has now caught multiple good performances by key starting pitchers in a row.

[dbn]

The Red Sox have the 4th best ERA in the AL in May.

[Rudy Pemberton]

To be 21-21 after all the bullshit is pretty impressive. Maybe it's a coincidence, but it seems like guys like WMB and Nava have brought some energy to the team. The emergence of Miller as an effective reliever and Padilla as a high leverage reliever have been very pleasant surprises, and Salty has been ridiculous with the power too. Funny how a nice stretch of baseball makes all the other nonsense disappear.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Take this team and add Ellsbury, Crawford and Bailey ... its not a bad team at all.

[bosockboy]

Take this team and add Ellsbury, Crawford and Bailey ... its not a bad team at all.

I'd say those three and possibly a starter to replace Bard....and the sky is the limit. Their bullpen has transitioned from abject failure to a strength in a shockingly short time. Hill and Miller are formidable from the left, Aceves and Padilla have been fantastic and Atchison and Albers have been terrific in middle relief. Melancon can't force his way back into this pen right now.

[behindthepen]

Here's the icing on the cake.  While the Sox are still in 4th place, this division is probably a lot more even than anyone expected.  Obviously this will change, but according to coolstandings, it's only going to take 88-89 wins to take the division.http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2012&i=1

[Buzzkill Pauley]

A lot of different guys are getting the privilege to play outfield for the Boston Red Sox.

[mabrowndog]

A lot of different guys are getting the privilege to play outfield for the Boston Red Sox.

It really is just like a fantasy camp. I expect LoweTek, SJH and ToeKneeArmAss to suit up any day now.

[JakeRae]

Here's the icing on the cake. While the Sox are still in 4th place, this division is probably a lot more even than anyone expected. Obviously this will change, but according to coolstandings, it's only going to take 88-89 wins to take the division.http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_standings.asp?sn=2012&i=1

That looks more like it'll take 91-92 wins to win the division. Toronto has an expected win total of 90 but only wins the division 33.8% of the time. Generally, the number of wins that it takes to win the division is a bit higher than the highest individual win expectation. This makes intuitive sense too.

Other than the above point, I agree that this team is very much in the race for the division still and I still believe they can be a formidable force if they can ever regress toward normal injury luck.

[Chainsaw318]

Even before tonight's performance, Doubront.

With all the other goofy things that have gone on with this team, the (re)emergence of a 24 year-old lefty who you will have control of for low money in the 5 or even 4th spot in your rotation is a darn good thing.

Before tonight, he had only one start giving less than 5 innings, and had only given up 5 or more ER in one start. Solid and sometimes above-average. A few too many walks still, but promising strikeout numbers and experience pitching out of the pen for use in late-season or post-season work. A valuable guy has re-emerged.

[behindthepen]

That looks more like it'll take 91-92 wins to win the division. Toronto has an expected win total of 90 but only wins the division 33.8% of the time. Generally, the number of wins that it takes to win the division is a bit higher than the highest individual win expectation. This makes intuitive sense too.

Other than the above point, I agree that this team is very much in the race for the division still and I still believe they can be a formidable force if they can ever regress toward normal injury luck.

I was looking at the projected wins for the 2nd place team, and adding one to that. I know that's not precisely relevant to the Sox, but the greater point is that historically you had to project the 2nd place team in the division to win at least 92-93, and therefore 93-94 would be required to win the division. And since it doesn't look like anyone is running away with this division, 90 is probably the best the 2nd place team will be.

[Eric Van]

Even before tonight's performance, Doubront.

With all the other goofy things that have gone on with this team, the (re)emergence of a 24 year-old lefty who you will have control of for low money in the 5 or even 4th spot in your rotation is a darn good thing.

Of 62 AL starters with 30 or more IP (which is 4.5 starters per team, just right), Doubront is 7th in FIP- and 18th in SIERA, which is not park-adjusted (and less predictive). He's arguably been a #2 starter so far.

He has the 6th best K% and the 12th worst BABIP. The latter may be worth looking into.

[dbn]

The Red Sox catchers lead the AL in OPS with 0.868, well ahead of the second place Chicago at 0.814.

[pokey_reese]

The Red Sox have the 3rd best run differential in the AL, 7th best in MLB. Assuming that they don't somehow get worse, you have to like the odds that those numbers start to impact the W-L columns eventually.