4 replies to this topic

[zapo]

A phenomenon observed of this front office is the absolute obsession with controlling assets, including those of very questionable value (e.g. Andrew Miller currently, but i will leave that for another thread). With pre-arb players like Mark Melancon and Will Middlebrooks, a popular means of extending control is to limit major league service time to avoid super two status, and keep the player under team control for an additional year. This is my theory - Melancon and Middlebrooks will spend time in the minors this year so they can spend the remainder of the following years in the majors, and not gain super two status at the end of 2013 (Melancon) or 2014 (Middlebrooks).


It is well documented that, since earning a demotion to AAA by throwing BP during late innings of actual games, Mark Melancon has been killing it in Pawtucket. And following Sunday's 17-inning bullpen smoking session, many were frustrated by his not being called up. I have a theory on when we will see him.

This yields a return date via the following calcuation:

- Service time as of end-2011: 1 year, 139 days (via soxprospects.com)
- Time spent in the majors prior to demotion: 14 days (April 5 - April 18)
- Adding these gives current service time of 1 year, 153 days.

The difficult question here is figuring the super two cutoff. In 2010 and 2011, the cutoff for super two status was 2y 122d and 2y 146d, respectively. However, under the new CBA, the number of second year players qualifying increases from 17% to 22%, pushing this deadline forward.

If we average the last two years, call the cutoff under the old CBA 2y 135 days (concurs with soxprospects.com's estimate of a typical cutoff). Now make the assumption that an additional 29% of players (increase of 17% to 22%) requires a proportionately lower number of days in the second year. That would estimate the new cutoff at around 2y 95 days.

My calculations are imprecise - with no "cushion," the amount of service time available this year is 2y 95d - 1y 153d = 114d for the rest of this year. Counting backward from the end of this year, that takes us to early-June. Adding in some wiggle room with the deadline, I expect to see him in mid-June.

- Assuming MM spends all of 2013 in the majors, this gives him roughly 69 days to burn this year.

Counting backward from the season's end at the end of October, this means I believe we will see Melancon in Boston again in late-July at the earliest, and more likely mid-July. Hopefully he's better than before.

Re Will Middlebrooks -- expecting him to spend all of 2013 and 2014 in the majors, and expecting him not to qualify for super two status at that point, he has 95 days to spend in the majors this year. He was called up on May 2, so I believe we can expect him to return to the minors for roughly two more months at some point this year before he's with the big club for good.

I'm definitely not advocating this, but based on what the FO seems to value, these are my predictions.

[wine111]

A phenomenon observed of this front office is the absolute obsession with controlling assets, including those of very questionable value (e.g. Andrew Miller currently, but i will leave that for another thread). With pre-arb players like Mark Melancon and Will Middlebrooks, a popular means of extending control is to limit major league service time to avoid super two status, and keep the player under team control for an additional year. This is my theory - Melancon and Middlebrooks will spend time in the minors this year so they can spend the remainder of the following years in the majors, and not gain super two status at the end of 2013 (Melancon) or 2014 (Middlebrooks).


It is well documented that, since earning a demotion to AAA by throwing BP during late innings of actual games, Mark Melancon has been killing it in Pawtucket. And following Sunday's 17-inning bullpen smoking session, many were frustrated by his not being called up. I have a theory on when we will see him.

This yields a return date via the following calcuation:

- Service time as of end-2011: 1 year, 139 days (via soxprospects.com)
- Time spent in the majors prior to demotion: 14 days (April 5 - April 18)
- Adding these gives current service time of 1 year, 153 days.

The difficult question here is figuring the super two cutoff. In 2010 and 2011, the cutoff for super two status was 2y 122d and 2y 146d, respectively. However, under the new CBA, the number of second year players qualifying increases from 17% to 22%, pushing this deadline forward.

If we average the last two years, call the cutoff under the old CBA 2y 135 days (concurs with soxprospects.com's estimate of a typical cutoff). Now make the assumption that an additional 29% of players (increase of 17% to 22%) requires a proportionately lower number of days in the second year. That would estimate the new cutoff at around 2y 95 days.

My calculations are imprecise - with no "cushion," the amount of service time available this year is 2y 95d - 1y 153d = 114d for the rest of this year. Counting backward from the end of this year, that takes us to early-June. Adding in some wiggle room with the deadline, I expect to see him in mid-June.

- Assuming MM spends all of 2013 in the majors, this gives him roughly 69 days to burn this year.

Counting backward from the season's end at the end of October, this means I believe we will see Melancon in Boston again in late-July at the earliest, and more likely mid-July. Hopefully he's better than before.

Re Will Middlebrooks -- expecting him to spend all of 2013 and 2014 in the majors, and expecting him not to qualify for super two status at that point, he has 95 days to spend in the majors this year. He was called up on May 2, so I believe we can expect him to return to the minors for roughly two more months at some point this year before he's with the big club for good.

I'm definitely not advocating this, but based on what the FO seems to value, these are my predictions.

I think it's best for both the club and Middlebrooks that he learns how to hit at MLB level now. He has the patience to wait for his pitch already developed. He should be ready now. If we need to play him in LF this year, so be it. We need his bat in the lineup to provide more offense with our pitching struggling like it is. Worry about his future free agent status later. I also think agents will track which clubs specifically hold back the free agency of clients ready to play in the majors. If we do that with Middlebrooks and others, it could hurt us in signing talented draft picks in the future. I don't care if virtually everyone else does it. If we don't, we could have an advantage in signing young talent. Ross can come off the bench as a pinch hitter and spot starter with some pop.

Edited by wine111, 09 May 2012 - 01:26 PM.

[zapo]

I was pretty close on Melancon - and look like will be wrong on WMB

[touchstone033]

With a 4.6-to-1 K-to-BB ratio and a .370+ BABIP, I'm guessing Middlebrooks will eventually come crashing back to Earth and will need minor-league ABs to work on pitch selectivity, etc.

[alwyn96]

Middlebrooks could probably use a little more seasoning on pitch selectivity, but he hasn't really been very selective throughout the minors, and this just be who he is as a player. It would be great to see him develop a little more patience, don't get me wrong, but if he hasn't shown much by now, that may just not be a big part of his game.

He really could stand to cut back on the strikeouts, though. Middlebrooks has hit the ball really hard, but like you said, that BABIP and K/BB is not indicative a sustainable performance. It wouldn't surprise me if did need to head back to AAA to work on some stuff at some point.

Also, for an asset of questionable value, Miller has really been reborn out of the bullpen lately.