34 replies to this topic

[smastroyin]

Leaving the Eric Wilbur character assassination to that thread, what is going on with Gonzalez?

He has had bad months before (although considering park/league factors April may have been his worst month in 5 years). So most likely it is just another early season slump that we make more out of than we need to. There are some larger trends though.

First, despite the fact that we were all looking at ballpark layovers and thinking that he would rake in Fenway, it hasn't translated to power. He had a 250 ISO on the road last year but only a 169 at Fenway. This came in the form of 7 more 2B and 7 more HR on the road than at Fenway and may be contributing to the thought that he has been too much of a singles hitter (because we see him in Fenway). His overall splits don't look as dramatic because he hit for high average at Fenway - essentially trading the extra bases for a high singles rate. This year in the small sample things have gotten a bit worse. His ISO is less than 100 at home, while he has not been hitting singles either, or walking very much. It's a small thing because of the sample but again, in trying to reconcile my own feelings versus knowledge of his ability, I think the fact that he has not been great in Fenway is part of it.

There is also the fact that since the ASB last year, his power numbers have declined considerably.

Let's look at AB/HR: Career 19.8 First half 11: 21.3 Second half 11+12: 31:5.
How about AB/2B: Career 16.5 First half 11: 12.5 Second half 11+12: 17.2

Sorry for formatting. Basically, though, what we see is kind of along the lines of what we may have expected. In the first half season with the Sox, he traded some HR for a lot of 2B. This led to him having a first half SLG higher than any full season SLG he had posted before. He has since dropped back to his traditional doubles rate, but has traded those HR for singles.

Is there anything to worry about? Probably not, guys have tough halves all the time and even though it was fueled by singles, his second half last year was still all-star level. This year is most likely just a slump. He is still only 30 (tomorrow actually is his 30th birthday) so it's not like he is 35 or something where we might have to worry.

I'm not sure how much there is to discuss, but mostly I wanted to break this away from the Eric Wilbur talk.

[Harry Hooper]

He had a dinged up shoulder when Theo traded for him, but supposedly the medical exams checked out OK. As it turned out (surprise, surprise given Sox medical follies) his shoulder did break down in the second half of the 2011 season. Is the shoulder still a problem? We don't know. We do know that in Fenway pitchers are routinely working inside on him and daring him to yank pitches into the RF seats, and so far he can't do it.

[glennhoffmania]

As far as his approach goes, it looks to me like he's trying to pull the ball too often. I don't have clips to break it down and analyze, but I remember thinking during multiple PAs that it looked like he might be flying open too quickly with the front shoulder and instead of driving an outside pitch to left he's hitting a grounder to 2B.

[dynomite]

So long as there's no physical explanation for the slump (re-aggravating the shoulder injury, for instance, which no one has suggested) I'm not concerned. He's had bad months before and recovered to have All-Star seasons. Compare these months:

April 2012: .271/.337/.400 with 9 BB, 19 K
May 2010: .252/.369/.369 with 19 BB, 29 K
July 2009: .198/.328/.385 with 18 BB, 22 K

Overall in 2010 Gonzo still ended up with a .298 batting average, a .904 OPS, and 31 HR.
Overall in 2009 Gonzo still ended up with a .277 batting average, a .958 OPS, and 40 HR.

And let's be clear: during his time with the Red Sox Gonzo has been an incredible hitter. To illustrate that point, compare these two slashlines for their careers in Boston:

AGonzalez with the Red Sox: .327/.398/.522
David Ortiz with the Red Sox: .290/.388/.572

It's not a direct comparison, in part because Ortiz has done it so much longer longer and in higher leverage situations (i.e. the World Series). But it'll take more than an 0 for 8 game and a bad month for me to give up on Gonzalez as a hitter.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

As far as his approach goes, it looks to me like he's trying to pull the ball too often. I don't have clips to break it down and analyze, but I remember thinking during multiple PAs that it looked like he might be flying open too quickly with the front shoulder and instead of driving an outside pitch to left he's hitting a grounder to 2B.

I think he's simply trying to do too much -- guessing and pressing -- and his swing timing has suffered to the point where he's not waiting to let the ball get deep. To me, the low walk total is especially indicative of this.

Probably because AG considers himself a team leader, feels responsible for losses, and wants to get the Sox winning again. He'll snap out of it.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He had a dinged up shoulder when Theo traded for him, but supposedly the medical exams checked out OK. As it turned out (surprise, surprise given Sox medical follies) his shoulder did break down in the second half of the 2011 season. Is the shoulder still a problem? We don't know. We do know that in Fenway pitchers are routinely working inside on him and daring him to yank pitches into the RF seats, and so far he can't do it.

I don't think the shoulder "break down" in the second half last year was entirely unexpected. He had surgery prior to the season, so even though he came to spring training more or less ready to go (he didn't start swinging until a few weeks in, and didn't play games until the last couple weeks), there's no way he got the strength in the shoulder to a point where it would maintain itself for the entire six months of the season. This year, he presumably had the full off-season to rehab and strengthen the shoulder to a point where it would be far closer to "normal".

Aside from the lack of power so far, I don't think there's any sign that the shoulder is still an issue. And there's no saying whether it is the shoulder that is sapping his power, or it's like Buzzkill Pauley says, and he's simply pressing too much and not seeing/hitting his pitches the way he has in the past. Hopefully he figures it out and things start clicking for him again.

[Al Zarilla]

It's frustrating because he has such a good swing, is a strong guy, and he has always hit. Same can be said for Albert Pujols. Maybe it's another kind of BCS: big contract syndrome. Adrian had it going in the first half last year, but maybe whenever he tails off he's going to feel the pressure of that contract. I see a guy like Melky Cabrera go to the Giants at $6 million for one year. No pressure on him. Suddenly Pablo Sandoval has another hamate bone fracture. They put Melky in the 3-hole and he keeps hitting. Small sample size this year all around with these three guys. Let's see what it looks like in September. Still, I worry about the contract being kind of an albatross with Adrian.

[SoxScout]

I've brought this up in the game threads a few times when talking about his lack of power. Maybe it goes beyond that. Yesterday he swung at an outside pitch and Gammons said something about it being a beautiful Fenway swing. Well maybe Fenway is completely screwing him up?



Gonzalez is swinging at a lot more pitches outside of the zone, and when he does he is ALWAYS putting them in play. That's never been a recipe for hitting success and my guess at "what is wrong".

[fineyoungarm]

I've brought this up in the game threads a few times when talking about his lack of power. Maybe it goes beyond that. Yesterday he swung at an outside pitch and Gammons said something about it being a beautiful Fenway swing. Well maybe Fenway is completely screwing him up?



Gonzalez is swinging at a lot more pitches outside of the zone, and when he does he is ALWAYS putting them in play. That's never been a recipe for hitting success and my guess at "what is wrong".

I had decided, based on my keen insight into human character, that Gonzalez was one player, who would not let Fenway screw up his swing. No Danny Cater he. He comes across as smart and thoughtful, when interviewed about the game in general terms. Ortiz and others have commented that he deeply studies hitting. As opposed to detached, he strikes me as calm, self confident and to have things in perspective - which in large part may be a function of this faith (in addition to some serious talent). To get trite - the strong, quiet, "I'll let my bat do the talking" type.

However, those are some attention getting %s. Still he came out of the gate this year hitting OK for average, if not power. I believe he did not drop below .300 until last week - and then collapsed. That has the earmarks of a developing early season slump, or - ominously - his shoulder or some other physical issue.

[Robert Plant]

I wonder if culture shock is playing a role in Adrian's struggles. People in San Diego look at baseball in such a different way than in Boston. Its not that they don't take it seriously. On the contrary, there is a strong group of diehard Padres fans, and most people in San Diego support the team. On the other hand, everyone recognizes that it is a small market and is relatively content with small victories. For example, the media still brings up the 2010, 90 win season as a great one worth replicating. No mention is ever made of the epic collapse. The little criticism that is directed at players is very mild and never personal. In fact, I have never heard a player's effort or character questioned at all. More often members of the media give verbal pats of the back. You often see and hear things like, "He'll get it done the next time." or "He was a good guy, too bad he couldn't hit major league pitching."

Adrian Gonzalez is still kind of a local hero in San Diego. Sports radio stations still interview him. People still talk about him fondly. He even does radio and television ads. It seems to me that the vastly different sports culture in Boston might be hard to deal with for someone used to playing in San Diego. Perhaps the pressure has gotten to Adrian.

Edited by Robert Plant, 08 May 2012 - 12:38 AM.

[teddywingman]

I can't tell what's wrong with his swing, but something is very wrong. I have no idea what it is because I never watched him when he was a Padre.

But here's what I think, for what it's worth:

-This is not just a bad luck slump. He has actually been extremely lucky on BABIP over the last week. Chopped grounders have been luckily finding the one place on the right side of the infield where AG can make it to first.
-The opposite field stroke that we were all so excited about seems to be gone.
-He can't time a fastball whether it's 95 or 85.
-Pitchers are pitching him away, right? (contrary to what has been posted above).
-He doesn't care much:
-But in the field, he's a fairly great firstbaseman, despite a couple bad throws this week.

So there's really no reason to think that he's going to ground out (or get a low odds hit into the shift) 50% of the time when he doesn't strike out. (on a weak outside fastball that he used to drive opposite field). Right>

[gammoseditor]

If it's Fenway or Boston then how come he was .001 away from his career high OPS last year? I see two potential things wrong with Adrian. One is that his shoulder is still bothering him. I don't think this is true. In the offseason he was talking about how it felt great. However, i think he said the same thing last year, and then toward the end of the season he admitted it was bothering him, so who knows. The other thing wrong is that he's a great player that had a bad month. Albert Pujols had one too. David Ortiz had back to back awful Aprils with many in the media and other places wondering if he was washed up. It happens. If he is healthy he'll be fine.

[Infield Infidel]

I've brought this up in the game threads a few times when talking about his lack of power. Maybe it goes beyond that. Yesterday he swung at an outside pitch and Gammons said something about it being a beautiful Fenway swing. Well maybe Fenway is completely screwing him up?



Gonzalez is swinging at a lot more pitches outside of the zone, and when he does he is ALWAYS putting them in play. That's never been a recipe for hitting success and my guess at "what is wrong".

Could that be a function of a) seeing fewer fastballs in the AL, and/or b) getting fewer pitches to hit in Fenway?

Should he be trying to walk more? Even though he hit well in 2011, he walked 10.3% of the time, his lowest full-season BB% since 2007. This year he's down to 8.8% (obv SSS with 11 BB in 125 PAs).

edit - For a little context, he walked 17.4% (119 walks! in 681 PAs) in 2009 and 13.4% in 2010, so this is not a positive trend.

2007: 65 BB in 720 PA (9%)
2008: 74 BB in 700 PA (10.5%)
2009: 119 BB in 681 PA (17.4%)
2010: 93 BB in 693 PA (13.4%)
2011: 74 BB in 715 PA (10.3%)
2012: 11 BB in 125 PA (8.8%) (SSS of course)

Edited by Infield Infidel, 08 May 2012 - 04:03 AM.

[DanoooME]

Last night on BBTN, John Kruk talked about the differences between when he was going well last year and poorly this year. He talked about Adrian's footwork. When he was going good, he had a brief toe-tap, then a small leg lift and quick plant. He showed a couple of recent ABs where Adrian's picking up his leg and making a circular motion with it, so that when it lands, his front hip flies open and he pulls off the ball. I don't know what the cause and effect is there (could his timing be off because of the leg movement or is the timing off before the leg movement) but I thought it was an interesting observation.

I tried to find a link on ESPN.com, to no avail.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

He was also flailing at garbage outside the strike zone all night last night. I suspect that he's getting anxious and pressing a bit which leads him to swing at lousy pitches.

[Reverend]

I can't tell what's wrong with his swing, but something is very wrong. I have no idea what it is because I never watched him when he was a Padre.

But here's what I think, for what it's worth:

-This is not just a bad luck slump. He has actually been extremely lucky on BABIP over the last week. Chopped grounders have been luckily finding the one place on the right side of the infield where AG can make it to first.
-The opposite field stroke that we were all so excited about seems to be gone.
-He can't time a fastball whether it's 95 or 85.
-Pitchers are pitching him away, right? (contrary to what has been posted above).
-He doesn't care much:
-But in the field, he's a fairly great firstbaseman, despite a couple bad throws this week.

So there's really no reason to think that he's going to ground out (or get a low odds hit into the shift) 50% of the time when he doesn't strike out. (on a weak outside fastball that he used to drive opposite field). Right>

Too early to get a good distribution, but in past years he had a nice line drive spread around where those balls that land closer to the infield are, but then a bit of a gap between those and the ones he clobbered with as many falling in the space between as going yard.; the "longer hit" balls don't seem to be going as far this year (SSS though). And there's not a lot of outs there either to make up for some sort of BABIP effect (his BABIP last year was .380 by the way; I don't know how much of that was using the wall in Fenway though, obviously.)





And yeah, pitchers are still pitching him a bit away, as per usual.

Could that be a function of a) seeing fewer fastballs in the AL, and/or b) getting fewer pitches to hit in Fenway?

If you count both four-seamers and two-seamers, looks like he's getting about the same fastball rate as he did in 2010 (2011 for that matter).

He was also flailing at garbage outside the strike zone all night last night. I suspect that he's getting anxious and pressing a bit which leads him to swing at lousy pitches.

I'm with you and TeddyW--I'm far from an expert, but he just looks bad. Like, sometimes you watch an athlete playing a sport you're not familiar with but you can still see the grace and precision with which they move... Not seeing that right now.

Someone posted a sweet double animated .gif of Gonzalez's swing in different years when it is a thing of beauty, but unfortunately, i can't find it right now. But one way or another, Adrian doesn't look all Jedi these days like he used to:


(Animated .gif courtesy of OvertheMonster)

Edited by Reverend, 08 May 2012 - 01:13 PM.

[mauidano]

(Animated .gif courtesy of OvertheMonster)

That is so cool on many levels. Gonzo will get it going. He's too good not to. Interesting article from PeteAbe today.
http://www.boston.co...droia_gonz.html

Edited by mauidano, 08 May 2012 - 01:22 PM.

[kazuneko]

Remember when every analyst on the planet was calling Adrian's swing "perfect for Fenway"? Whatever happened to that?
As a Padre, Gonzalez averaged a home run every 15 at-bats on the road and one every 24.7 at-bats in Petco. So of course you'd think that when he came to Fenway you'd see a sudden surge in his power numbers, right?
Unfortunately, the opposite has been the case. Since he joined the Red Sox at the start of the 2011 season, Gonzalez's home run production has decreased pretty dramatically. The 27 he hit with Boston last year was his lowest HR output since he hit 24 in his first year as a full-time player in 2006. In fact, Gonzalez - for his career - has hit for substantially more power at PetCo than Fenway. Remarkably, in his season-plus with the Red Sox Gonzalez has only homered once every 34.3 at-bats at home.

Edited by kazuneko, 13 May 2012 - 03:19 PM.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I wouldn't be overly concerned with his walk rate declining since SD, he had a ton of intentional walks, and other times just pitched around, as the only power bat in the pathetic Padre lineup.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

If I've done the math right, Adrian Gonzalez is hitting .407/.484/.667 since this thread was started. No homers, though, so we're clearly not getting our money's worth.

[DieHardSoxFan1]

Let's say the Sox are 8-10 out in July and a team with enormous financial means calls Ben and asks about Adrian. Is the response "no way," "not during the season" or "I'm listening"?

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I don't think Gonzalez is completely untouchable, so I'd say "I'm listening." But it would have to be an enormous haul to pry him loose. He's enormously valuable when you compare his contract to other first basemen around the majors who are considered elite. Dollar for dollar, I'd probably take him and his contract over Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira and Votto.

That said, after being underwhelmed by the offer for Gonzalez, I'd counter with a slightly used Youk, assuming Youk is healthy at that moment.

[Reverend]

Let's say the Sox are 8-10 out in July and a team with enormous financial means calls Ben and asks about Adrian. Is the response "no way," "not during the season" or "I'm listening"?

I don't think Gonzalez is completely untouchable, so I'd say "I'm listening." But it would have to be an enormous haul to pry him loose. He's enormously valuable when you compare his contract to other first basemen around the majors who are considered elite. Dollar for dollar, I'd probably take him and his contract over Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Teixeira and Votto.

That said, after being underwhelmed by the offer for Gonzalez, I'd counter with a slightly used Youk, assuming Youk is healthy at that moment.

These are the teams with pay-roll of $100 million or more. Let's see if there are any interesting trends:

2012 First Basemen and Team/Contract Situation

tr][/tr]

TEAM	TOTAL PAYROLL	1B	Deal	Signed Through	Age
New York Yankees	$ 197,962,289	Mark Teixeira	8 yrs/$180M	2016	32
Philadelphia Phillies	$ 174,538,938	Ty Wigginton	2 yrs/$8M	Free Agent (team option)	34
Philadelphia Phillies	$ 174,538,938	Ryan Howard	5 yrs/$125M	2016	32
Boston Red Sox	$ 173,186,617	Adrián González	7 yrs/$154M	2018	30
Los Angeles Angels	$ 154,485,166	Albert Pujols	10 yrs/$240M	2021	32
Detroit Tigers	$ 132,300,000	Prince Fielder	9 yrs/$214M	2020	28
Texas Rangers	$ 120,510,974	Mitch Moreland	1 yr/$491k	Pre-Arb Eligible	26
Miami Marlins	$ 118,078,000	Gaby Sánchez	1 yr/$483k	Pre-Arb Eligible	28
San Francisco Giants	$ 117,620,683	Brandon Belt	1 yr/$481k	Pre-Arb Eligible	24
St. Louis Cardinals	$ 110,300,862	Matt Carpenter	1 yr/$480k	Pre-Arb Eligible	26

As Snodder said, would you listen? Sure. But For teams with the money, the approach comes in only two flavors.

Edited by Reverend, 13 May 2012 - 10:20 PM.

• Back to top

[BoSox Rule]

That table doesn't show the gigantic commitment the Phillies have to their 1B.

[Reverend]

That table doesn't show the gigantic commitment the Phillies have to their 1B.

Noted, and by public demand (seriously, people--shaddup! [not you BoSox Rule]) adjusted.

That's a good example of the exception that proves the rule; it's still big money or cost-controlled player. But good catch; thanks.

Edited by Reverend, 13 May 2012 - 10:22 PM.

[Papelbon's Poutine]

What about the Dodgers? They are at about $105M with James Loney at around $6.4.

[bosockboy]

Getting rid of Gonzalez to pay off the the Crawford/Lackey mistakes just seems like compounding the problems. The better way to expunge the poison is to trade Crawford and eat some salary and/or swap for another bad contract of a player who might fit better here.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Gonzalez is being paid well under market and is traded, he's surely going to leverage the ability to opt out after a year (his right as a player being traded in the middle of a multi-year deal) to re-negotiate a better deal. So, I don't think it's very realistic that he'd be traded.

[BCsMightyJoeYoung]

If Gonzalez is being paid well under market and is traded, he's surely going to leverage the ability to opt out after a year (his right as a player being traded in the middle of a multi-year deal) to re-negotiate a better deal. So, I don't think it's very realistic that he'd be traded.

IIRC that "right" no longer exists .. no links unfortuneately

[dbn]

Wow, have we really reached the era where a ball player making $22M/yr "is being paid well under market"? I wish I could hit.

[Pumpsie]

Mr. Underpaid is now one home run behind Mr. Albert Pujols at the moment.

[Caspir]

Mr. Underpaid is now one home run behind Mr. Albert Pujols at the moment.

Don't worry, he promised to hit one tonight.

http://sports.yahoo....-195808193.html

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Yeah, not so much. 106 ABs and counting. As with Pujols, this is going to start to be more and more of a national story, along the lines of ARod's inability to hit his 500th I fear. I guess the pressure couldn't make Adrian hit much worse, but it's a distraction right when the team seems to have something going here. Would love to see him get this monkey off his back soon. Openly complaining about the umpiring isn't going to help things, that's for sure.

Hate that the sox have an obvious rep for being whiney complainers.

edit: whiney, not whimsy, although The Whimsy Complainers is kind of a good band name.

Edited by MyDaughterLovesTomGordon, 18 May 2012 - 01:33 PM.

[Doctor G]

This will be forgotten after a few days in Philly and Baltimore

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

This will be forgotten after a few days in Philly and Baltimore

You win 100 Internet points.