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Blow it up!


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#1 Moosbrugger

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Posted 05 May 2012 - 10:48 PM

Congratulations! You just got the call. John Henry just interrupted your shift at Burger King to hire you as the new GM of the Boston Red Sox. Should you accept the position, you are tasked with reducing payroll roughly $20 million per year from its current level in order to avoid luxury tax penalties. Oh, also this: you need to produce a team that will go deep into the post season in 2013. Ownership is deeply concerned with declining revenue and television ratings and is anxious for a quick turnaround.

Your staff at the Burger King has annoyed you by incapacitating themselves with several cartons of Redi-Whip in the walk-in cooler. You are tempted to take this job. What will you do?

#2 Sampo Gida

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 12:25 AM

Why would you need to reduce payroll 20 million PER year, when you are only a few million over the cap and the threshold will increase 10 million in 2014.
Also, I am pretty sure even the owners understand that what happens when you get to the playoffs is a crapshoot, and quick turnarounds require spending even more money.

Frankly, it has yet to be established a quick turnaround is required only 26 games into the season. The Detroit Tigers were 12-14 to start the season last year and went to the ALCS.

So the only thing I would do immediately if hired would be to fire Bobby V. But he is Larrys's boy so I doubt I would be permitted to do so.

At seasons end, no matter what happens, I would not pick up Youks option and would say sayonara to Daisuke. I would try and sign Youk cheap since he would be a good bat off the bench. I would sign Papi for about the same amount.

Hopefully, Kalish, Lavarnway, Iglesias, WMB and maybe even Barnes (2nd half) will be ready to step up in 2013, and Lackey, Crawford, Bailey and Ellsbury are healthy.

Payroll would drop about 10 million, below the luxury tax threshold.

Heck, they can do that without me.

#3 Trotsky

  • 694 posts

Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:05 AM

Youk will be starting at 1st for some other team next season if the Sox don't pick up his option (which I don't think they will), but he sure as hell won't be signing a new contract that pays him to be a bench player.
Other than that everything else looks about right. Sweeney I think we have for another full season and as a bench player, he's great. Ross I'd let go, maybe offer arb and hope he rejects and we can grab a pick.

For radical moves, like if this team is just continuing this collapse, I'd look to move Youk, Beckett, Aviles, Ross, Sweeney, Byrd or any of the bullpen arms before the deadline and see if anyone will take the corpse of Lackey along with them

#4 LostinNJ

  • 255 posts

Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:42 AM

If ownership is concerned about declining revenue and TV ratings, maybe they should quit stocking up on boring guys. The 2003-2004 teams were both very talented and very entertaining, but it looks like management was uncomfortable with all the eccentric behavior and wanted a more "professional" feel for the club. They still have some characters (Pedroia, Ortiz, Youkilis, and I guess now Ross), but a lot of the recent personnel decisions have tilted toward bland, uncontroversial guys like Gonzalez and Crawford. I know we don't believe in team chemistry on this board, but as a fan, I'd rather root for a bunch of nutcases who make the clubhouse lively than a bunch of zombies who can't generate enough enthusiasm to pull themselves out of a late-season (or early-season) swoon.

#5 Papo The Snow Tiger

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 10:34 AM

If you're truly going to blow it up you have to market and listen to trade offers for almost any of the players. The only untouchables, in my humble opinion, are Dusty, Lester, and Papi. It should take a kings ransom to get Ellsbury or Buchholz, and with their contracts Gonzalez or Crawford won't be going anywhere anyway, but if you can move someone like Beckett at the trade deadline for multiple prospects then you have to do it. And by prospects I don't mean A level lottery tickets, I mean guys in AA or higher.

#6 twibnotes

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 11:34 AM

If you're truly going to blow it up you have to market and listen to trade offers for almost any of the players. The only untouchables, in my humble opinion, are Dusty, Lester, and Papi. It should take a kings ransom to get Ellsbury or Buchholz, and with their contracts Gonzalez or Crawford won't be going anywhere anyway, but if you can move someone like Beckett at the trade deadline for multiple prospects then you have to do it. And by prospects I don't mean A level lottery tickets, I mean guys in AA or higher.


I love Papi, but to me he's squarely in the touchable bucket. He could be a real asset to an AL contender. If he can get you a prospect or cost controlled solid MLB player, I think you have to take a good look at that. The track record on guys his size seems to indicate that he can't keep doing what he's doing much longer.

#7 Sampo Gida

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 12:33 PM

I love Papi, but to me he's squarely in the touchable bucket. He could be a real asset to an AL contender. If he can get you a prospect or cost controlled solid MLB player, I think you have to take a good look at that. The track record on guys his size seems to indicate that he can't keep doing what he's doing much longer.


Papi has 10/5 rights and can not be traded.

Folks have been saying Papi was all washed up for 3 years and he is as good as ever. Frank Thomas was a big guy and a productive DH until he was 39.

#8 Trotsky

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 12:51 PM

Gonzalez is also untouchable. He hasn't had a good season thus far, but he'll come around. Also his contract is ridiculous.
Trading Beckett or Youk I'd like to have a can't miss highly ranked prospect or arb-year controlled player ready to start next season. Ellsbury is another I think should be considered a tradeable asset, as he's going to FA soon anyhow and will cost more than Crawford... ugh... Crawford....
I can't believe we're stuck with Lackey and Crawford and considering trading Ellsbury and had to let Papelbon walk because of those two. Ben hasn't been very good, but Theo left this team pretty sick and then Larry brought in Valentine and made it go on life support

#9 Trotsky

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 01:14 PM

I'd also put Lester up on that Tradeable Assets spreadsheet. Really start to focus on Bard, Doubront as a core.... look to pick up another very young strong SP-future ace. He's been steadily trending downwards since 2009.

#10 Towney007

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 02:02 PM

First guy I would probably deal would be Lester. He's the guy who I think has the best chance of being over valued.

#11 Alex18

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 05:14 PM

If you're truly going to blow it up you have to market and listen to trade offers for almost any of the players. The only untouchables, in my humble opinion, are Dusty, Lester, and Papi. It should take a kings ransom to get Ellsbury or Buchholz, and with their contracts Gonzalez or Crawford won't be going anywhere anyway, but if you can move someone like Beckett at the trade deadline for multiple prospects then you have to do it. And by prospects I don't mean A level lottery tickets, I mean guys in AA or higher.


With the fact that ells seems very fragile and bucholz in his huge slump right now I can't see them getting as much as you think

#12 Papo The Snow Tiger

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 07:15 PM

I love Papi, but to me he's squarely in the touchable bucket. He could be a real asset to an AL contender. If he can get you a prospect or cost controlled solid MLB player, I think you have to take a good look at that. The track record on guys his size seems to indicate that he can't keep doing what he's doing much longer.


I love Papi too, maybe a little too much. But given state of franchise it would be a horrible PR move to unload one of their greatest players ever. He should be allowed to retire as a Red Sox, just like Wakefield and Varitek.

#13 sancap14

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 07:40 PM

Nobody will be moved until the regulars get back from the DL and we see what we really have. I was hoping we could stay close to .500 until then but now I'm not so sure. It's a sad situation. I've gone from hating this team to now really feeling bad for these guys. Even Valentine. He looked absolutely lost in the post game today. This is just surreal. There's too much talent on this team for them to suck this bad.

#14 LostinNJ

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 08:17 PM

A good first step would be to trade Saltalamacchia. What's the evidence that he is a good major league catcher?

#15 Frank, Fenway

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 08:58 PM

A good first step would be to trade Saltalamacchia. What's the evidence that he is a good major league catcher?


So if there is no evidence that he is a good major league catcher, then what team is going to take him?

Edited by Frank, Fenway, 06 May 2012 - 08:58 PM.


#16 The Best Catch in 100 Years

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:00 PM

Beyond a couple potential player-to-contender-for-prospects deals (Youkilis? Ortiz? Daisuke?), I'm not sure if the Red Sox will have that many opportunities to "blow it up" in a way that would really improve their chances in 2013 and beyond. I just don't see too many guys on the roster who it would make sense to cash in now in hopes of contending next year who the Red Sox could actually get useful parts back for.

#17 sancap14

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:32 PM

I guess one guy who would bring back a significant return would be Ellsbury. Crawford's signing virtually guarantees we can't afford him after next year anyways.

#18 LostinNJ

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 09:43 PM

So if there is no evidence that he is a good major league catcher, then what team is going to take him?

I dunno. A team traded for A. J. Burnett this off-season. If that can happen, anything can happen.

#19 alwyn96

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 11:26 PM

What's the evidence that he is a good major league catcher?

He had a 95 OPS+ last year and has a 100 OPS+ this year. That's a perfectly average (to slightly above) major league catcher.

Gotta love talk about blowing it up in the 1st week of May. Never change, sandboxers.

Edited by alwyn96, 06 May 2012 - 11:27 PM.


#20 Sampo Gida

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Posted 06 May 2012 - 11:34 PM

What's the evidence that he is a good major league catcher?

He had a 95 OPS+ last year and has a 100 OPS+ this year. That's a perfectly average (to slightly above) major league catcher.

Gotta love talk about blowing it up in the 1st week of May. Never change, sandboxers.



They are talking about it on the mainboard as well, but I agree it is premature. .

Salty is definitely a decent hitting catcher, but defensively he has not performed well this year.

#21 alwyn96

  • 574 posts

Posted 06 May 2012 - 11:51 PM

Salty is definitely a decent hitting catcher, but defensively he has not performed well this year.

Oh yeah, defensively he's been godawful. He started out absolutely terribly last year too and got better as the season went on, but it makes me long for the days of Varitek's overrated but at least passable defense. Sadly, Shoppach hasn't been much better, and Lavarnway's reputation is pretty bad as well (although he looked ok to me). Catcher is a tough position.

Edited by alwyn96, 06 May 2012 - 11:52 PM.


#22 LostinNJ

  • 255 posts

Posted 07 May 2012 - 07:26 AM

What's the evidence that he is a good major league catcher?

He had a 95 OPS+ last year and has a 100 OPS+ this year. That's a perfectly average (to slightly above) major league catcher.

Gotta love talk about blowing it up in the 1st week of May. Never change, sandboxers.

Those offensive numbers would be terrific if he could actually play his position, but he doesn't seem to be able to do that. We know at least one starter would prefer not to pitch to him, and he just seems like a klutz back there a lot of the time.

Re the condescension in your last sentence: It's okay if fans react emotionally to the team's horrible play. Let Cherington and his people take the long, sober view -- that's their job. My job as a fan is different. Since it is inherently irrational to root for a team, an irrational response is not only acceptable, it's practically required. Anyway, if the team is not going to contend this year (and it's not), then the rational response is to start planning for 2013 and beyond.

I will point out that last year's dreadful start led to a better record after 27 games than this year's.

#23 Billymike

  • 6 posts

Posted 07 May 2012 - 11:06 AM

Way to soon to panic and start taking drastic actions. That being said , continue to evaluate the talent . This team has not looked healthy. If the team continues to look like a disaster at the trading deadline , look for a contender to overpay.

#24 betheriver

  • 341 posts

Posted 07 May 2012 - 12:07 PM

As much as I would love to see Beckett go, he is overpaid for a long time, has a reputation (founded or not) as a problem in the clubhouse, and has not been a true ace from beginning to end since 2007. He's not going anywhere. I love Clay, but I have a bad feeling that with his back trouble, he's never going to be able to throw that nasty changeup with consistency again, and I would gladly give him to a team that bites. This team reminds me of the Yankees 5 years ago: a bunch of long contracts and oft-injured/underperforming shiny toys that just don't seem to have the right makeup to win it all. I don't think it's even possible to blow this team up, because no other team will take these contracts and the players they're attached to. Sadly the solution is a few years (or more) of basement dwelling while rebuilding the farm. I think ownership realizes this, which explains why they aren't spending the way they have in the past.

That said, I think there is some hope. I think Doubront will project into a decent middle rotation starter. I think Dice-K will provide some relief and perhaps enable Bard to go back to the pen, where he is sorely needed. Even Lackey (who I absolutely cannot stand) has to be better after TJ surgery than he has been (doesn't he?). When Ellsbury returns it will certainly help at the top of the lineup. If Crawford ever comes back, he can hopefully be better than Cody Ross. I have a feeling Middlebrooks is going to be here awhile. Do I think this all translates to a playoff run? Probably not, but it may make the team a bit more watchable.

#25 Alex18

  • 132 posts

Posted 07 May 2012 - 09:07 PM

That said, I think there is some hope. I think Doubront will project into a decent middle rotation starter. I think Dice-K will provide some relief and perhaps enable Bard to go back to the pen, where he is sorely needed. Even Lackey (who I absolutely cannot stand) has to be better after TJ surgery than he has been (doesn't he?). When Ellsbury returns it will certainly help at the top of the lineup. If Crawford ever comes back, he can hopefully be better than Cody Ross. I have a feeling Middlebrooks is going to be here awhile. Do I think this all translates to a playoff run? Probably not, but it may make the team a bit more watchable.


I agree with you on the lackey part, as much as I can't stand him If its true that he was pitching with a really bad elbow the two years and tj surgery clears it up he's got to at least be a little better then 2011. As for bard though my hope is that they keep him in the rotation until he reaches his innings limit or he absolutely sucks it up, I think they need to take this year and figure out If he's a starter or a closer once and for all so it doesn't come up every spring training. My biggest hope is that Crawford returns to the way he was In Tampa, at least we know Crawford could have good seasons in back to back years and stay relatively while Ellsbury had one great year but seems to be hurt all the time

#26 alwyn96

  • 574 posts

Posted 08 May 2012 - 01:54 AM

Re the condescension in your last sentence: It's okay if fans react emotionally to the team's horrible play. Let Cherington and his people take the long, sober view -- that's their job. My job as a fan is different. Since it is inherently irrational to root for a team, an irrational response is not only acceptable, it's practically required. Anyway, if the team is not going to contend this year (and it's not), then the rational response is to start planning for 2013 and beyond.

Of course it's ok to react emotionally! It's only human! And it's completely ok for me to make fun of you for it! Also human! No one is paying you to be an emotional wreck (as far as I know - if they are then I want in) so I'm happy to chuckle at all the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of everyone who acts like they've never seen a season of baseball before. Ya'll are hilarious!

#27 LostinNJ

  • 255 posts

Posted 08 May 2012 - 04:18 PM

Of course it's ok to react emotionally! It's only human! And it's completely ok for me to make fun of you for it! Also human! No one is paying you to be an emotional wreck (as far as I know - if they are then I want in) so I'm happy to chuckle at all the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments of everyone who acts like they've never seen a season of baseball before. Ya'll are hilarious!

These emotional lows are the price we pay for the emotional high that comes when the team succeeds. You want to stay above it all and laugh at us and not be emotionally invested? Great. And when the Red Sox win their next championship, we'll be swinging from the chandeliers in delirious celebration while you check your watch and feel superior because, you know, you've seen so much baseball.

#28 alwyn96

  • 574 posts

Posted 08 May 2012 - 06:21 PM

These emotional lows are the price we pay for the emotional high that comes when the team succeeds. You want to stay above it all and laugh at us and not be emotionally invested? Great. And when the Red Sox win their next championship, we'll be swinging from the chandeliers in delirious celebration while you check your watch and feel superior because, you know, you've seen so much baseball.


Wow, you are very attached to the purity of your irrationality! Don't let me stop you from losing your mind. Clearly you know that you're crazy - I'm not sure why you would expect that no one would call you on it.

#29 BostonBrahmin

  • 50 posts

Posted 09 May 2012 - 10:07 AM

This isn't a team that needs to be blown up, its a team that needs to get healthy. Here's what we have on the DL, with their projected WAR according to FanGraphs fan projections-

Ellsbury- 6.8
Youk- 5.5
Crawford- 3.7
Bailey- 1.2
Daisuke- 0.8

That's some serious production in the lineup and what was our projected closer. Add to that Lackey, who we all hate but we also know is a MUCH better pitcher than he showed last year.

The only real question marks on this team are in the rotation. Lester, Beckett and Buchholz have not produced anywhere near what they need to. So unless those are the guys you want to ship out, maybe "blowing up" what should be a contender isn't the best idea.

#30 Reggie's Racquet

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 10:08 AM

An interesting piece this morning by PeteAbe in the Globe and I think I agree. It may be time...

The pitching numbers since September 1 are unbelieveable.

"Since last Sept. 1, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.05 runs per game. Their pitching staff has a 5.58 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
The starters are 13-25 with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Sox starters are averaging just over 5.1 innings per start over the last 56 games."

"There comes a time to blow it up and that time is steadily approaching."

http://www.boston.co...as/extra_bases/

#31 BostonBrahmin

  • 50 posts

Posted 09 May 2012 - 10:27 AM

An interesting piece this morning by PeteAbe in the Globe and I think I agree. It may be time...

The pitching numbers since September 1 are unbelieveable.

"Since last Sept. 1, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.05 runs per game. Their pitching staff has a 5.58 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
The starters are 13-25 with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Sox starters are averaging just over 5.1 innings per start over the last 56 games."

"There comes a time to blow it up and that time is steadily approaching."

http://www.boston.co...as/extra_bases/


Its still too early this season, but the leash needs to be short. The only regular I'd be comfortable moving right now is Youk, an thats because the future is already up and performing well. I know its a SSS on WMB, but at this point an adjustment year from him is much more valuable than a decline year from Youk. I'd see if they can send Youk and a truckload of cash to Milwaukee for Kameron Loe.

We're exactly two weeks from Daisuke's return, and at this point I think Clay needs a 15-day break. With Beckett and Lester, it almsot looks like an issue of focus. That's the only way I can explain the disaster innings surrounded by strong innings.

The problem with trying to rationalize analyze this team is that there is no way they should be this bad. When the production you see from your players defies logic, what do you do?

#32 BoredViewer

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Posted 09 May 2012 - 01:16 PM

When we're the ones trading... it takes one of the teams (the Sox) out of the market that usually is a possible landing spot for overpaid/disgruntled/disruptive/underperforming players.

#33 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:11 PM

Well I guess since the cries for the Celtics and Patriots to blow it up didn't work perhaps it's some kind of reverse jinx thread. Do people here really want to blow this team back to the cellar? If you can get something pretty good for Youk then fine but I doubt aside from him and Beckett you get much back. If it was up to some of the posters on here the Sox would DFA Youk, trade Beckett, and DFA Buchholz. This thread is pointless

EDIT: Pats and Celtics last I checked seemed to work well this year. Everyone in the thread needs to stop listening to Felger every afternoon

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 09 May 2012 - 07:12 PM.


#34 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 09 May 2012 - 07:16 PM

The scariest thing of this whole thread is that people are actually rationalizing with Pete Abe.

#35 RochesterSamHorn

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 12:16 AM

Back in Dec. in my "Bridge to Nowhere" thread I suggested getting rid of bad contracts and bad attitudes. Now more than ever do I want to see Josh Beckett shipped out. I still believe Houston would be a perfect fit ( he would not refuse a trade to his home state, Houston could certainly use him, if nothing else as a draw, and Wandy Rodriguez has been on their export list for sometime now. If Carl Crawford comes back to respectability before the trade deadline, we should really explore trading him to the Angels for Vernon Wells ( to equalize the contracts ) and Peter Bourjos. Bourjos is the key, as he would be a good Elllsbury replacement, allowing us to trade him, should we not be able to afford him. The Angels are crowed in the outfield, have a lot invested this year, and not clicking well. Crawford brings a different element to their outfield (more potential than Wells) and is best friends with Tori Hunter (who they need to reup after this year). And I never thought I would think this, but I would even consider trading Adrian Gonzalez - back to the west coast (where he seems to be happier) Giants (who need an all star first baseman) for one of their primo pitchers (Cain, Bumgarner, or Vogelsong, and a prospect or two). First base would be an easy replacement for us, utilizing Youk, Lavarnway, Sweeney, Anderson). This is just the tip of the iceberg as far as blowing this team up. This current Red Sox team has a bad disconnect and feels like a team of 'misfit toys'. Anyone who can't see that, I have a bridge to sell you, - and Sox tickets if I had them.

#36 Tyrone Biggums


  • nfl meets tri-annually at a secret country mansion in colorado,


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Posted 10 May 2012 - 05:16 AM

So to clarify this last post you want the Red Sox to do the following

-Trade Beckett for Wandy Rodriguez (who would get murdered in the AL East with his stuff)
-Trade Youk or A-Gon ( the fact you would consider A-Gon for Vogelsong is downright scary)
-Trade Crawford who had one bad year for Vernon Wells who has had 5 bad years considering his contract and a guy who can't crack the lineup in Anaheim (Boujois) so that the sox can
-Trade Ellsbury...I'm assuming for prospects...the MVP runner up from last year going somewhere for probably mid level prospects...
-Youk gone for anything (this has been discussed ad naseum in many threads)

So you would like the Boston Red Sox to become the 2010 San Diego Padres minus the good starting pitching? Wandy Rodriguez doesn't help this team in the present or future. I'm all for trading Beckett and Youkilis but you have to get value back...the contracts they have aren't dragging this team down, people here have been acting as if they are Lackey 2.0 with their contracts. That's not the case, Youkilis has an option next year and Beckett is a free agent after next year. Maybe a change of scenery is best...but not for 25 cents on the dollar. Ellsbury shouldn't be traded unless you can get an elite starting pitcher back for him, period.

Getting back to my original point, people wanted to waive Avery Bradley and Kevin Garnett early in the season...trade Pierce and Allen for a bag of balls and lets not even go into the Rondo trade proposals everyone on message boards and the radio were throwing out there. Hell there were even a few moronic calls after the Superbowl asking if Tom Brady was enough ammo for the number 2 pick...

I don't understand the fascination with "blowing it up" when 90% of the time it doesn't work, it alienates a fan base, and it's more like 7-10 years to recover instead of 5. For every Texas Rangers team there's the Orioles, Pirates, Blue Jays, Padres...

This team needs to get healthy and then we'll see what it can do, if you want to boycott the team and bitch and moan about it that's fine, don't go to the games until they sell everyone off...more tickets for me then.

PS: Once again I support trading Beckett and Youk but for value...don't trade them because of the contract...

Edited by Tyrone Biggums, 10 May 2012 - 05:23 AM.


#37 steveluck7

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 05:53 AM

I don't understand the fascination with "blowing it up" when 90% of the time it doesn't work, it alienates a fan base, and it's more like 7-10 years to recover instead of 5.

I agree with your entire post. I would argue, however, that they have already alienated the fan base.

#38 Coachster

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 06:34 AM

I don't understand the fascination with "blowing it up" when 90% of the time it doesn't work, it alienates a fan base, and it's more like 7-10 years to recover instead of 5. For every Texas Rangers team there's the Orioles, Pirates, Blue Jays, Padres...


So, here's what will happen. Mid-July, we'll be in last, 20-25 games behind the second wild-card, Byrd and Sweeney still won't have a HR between them, Youk will have spent another stint on the DL, WMB will have come back down to earth, Ells and Crawford will have 'setbacks' and won't be available till Sept.?, Matsuzaka will have several 5-inning-110-pitch-45-strike outings, and we'll start selling off the available pieces. Ross, Sweeney, Aviles, maybe Shoppach; anybody on a one-year deal except Papi. Teams in contention will come after Matsuzake, Beckett and Clay, if they are healthy, and the best we'll do for them is prospects. Youk? Bye-bye. Aceves? He might be worth something.

It's not like there is going to be another choice besides blowing it up. If we get healthy, we're still not very good. As Gertrude Stein said, 'there is no there there'.

#39 steveluck7

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 08:41 AM

So, here's what will happen. Mid-July, we'll be in last, 20-25 games behind the second wild-card, Byrd and Sweeney still won't have a HR between them, Youk will have spent another stint on the DL, WMB will have come back down to earth, Ells and Crawford will have 'setbacks' and won't be available till Sept.?, Matsuzaka will have several 5-inning-110-pitch-45-strike outings, and we'll start selling off the available pieces. Ross, Sweeney, Aviles, maybe Shoppach; anybody on a one-year deal except Papi. Teams in contention will come after Matsuzake, Beckett and Clay, if they are healthy, and the best we'll do for them is prospects. Youk? Bye-bye. Aceves? He might be worth something.

It's not like there is going to be another choice besides blowing it up. If we get healthy, we're still not very good. As Gertrude Stein said, 'there is no there there'.

So, what are next week's winning powerball numbers?
The reality is that "blowing it up" is exactly that, it represents a nuclear option. By dumping players, you're, at best, buying into the nebulous concept of "addition by subtraction". Jettisoning any of our higher priced players will come only if the team pays a substantial amount of the remaining contract(s) and the returning player likely won't be as talented as the departing.
As for contending teams coming after Matsuzaka, Beckett and Buchholz. All of them have major red flags that would prevent teams from being too aggressive with offers. Dice-K is coming off TJ and has never proven to be much more than a solid #4. Ok, what comes back for him? Beckett? Any trade will likely involve the Sox paying a hefty portion f his remaining salary as well as (most likely) full freight for whatever player comes back. In short, any Beckett deal could likely result in the Sox paying the equivalent of Beckett's full salary while getting a lesser player in return. Buchholz? He would certainly be the most attractive option but he also has issues. Coming off of a 2011 that saw him miss significant time coupled with his poor performance to date in 2012 can only have adverse effects on his trade value.

#40 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 10 May 2012 - 09:43 AM

So, here's what will happen. Mid-July, we'll be in last, 20-25 games behind the second wild-card, Byrd and Sweeney still won't have a HR between them, Youk will have spent another stint on the DL, WMB will have come back down to earth, Ells and Crawford will have 'setbacks' and won't be available till Sept.?, Matsuzaka will have several 5-inning-110-pitch-45-strike outings, and we'll start selling off the available pieces. Ross, Sweeney, Aviles, maybe Shoppach; anybody on a one-year deal except Papi. Teams in contention will come after Matsuzake, Beckett and Clay, if they are healthy, and the best we'll do for them is prospects. Youk? Bye-bye. Aceves? He might be worth something.

It's not like there is going to be another choice besides blowing it up. If we get healthy, we're still not very good. As Gertrude Stein said, 'there is no there there'.


Good to see that the season has already been played, I didn't know the sports almanac from Back to the Future covered this year...

This team will not be 20-25 games back, stop it. For all of the garbage ball this team has played they are only 7 and a half back in early May. If you had told me with this pitching the Sox would only be 7 1/2 out without Ellsbury and Youk and a true closer on top of that I think that would have been a best case scenario.

Once again if a talented team gets out of the gutter it can do great things and make the playoffs (ie Boston Celtics). Once again 90% of Boston fans wanted to blow it up for the sake of doing so and not having a real plan in mind. That's the same thing here, all people have said is "Well we don't want Beckett Youk A-Gon etc...but let's rebuild" I see the first step and the third step but not the second step. What does the Boston Red Sox get in return that will help them in 2013 and beyond...Because as much as everyone hates him, Beckett is still under contract past this year...Youk is still a valuable bat who can play 1st and 3rd. Most teams in baseball would love to have those garbage players.

I'm all for dealing if it makes sense and it's part of a plan...but people aren't proposing a sound rebuilding plan, you are proposing that the 1998 Marlins fire sale or 1994 Padres fire sale occurs with this team. Fire sales are never the answer, you need a sound plan or rebuilding and lets face it not many people have any on this board. They huff and puff about how "we pay 35 dollars a ticket to see an underachieving bunch of overpaid players" how about when we pay 35 dollars a ticket to see the Pawtucket Red Sox play in Fenway 81 games a year. Point is that Boston fans are not happy unless they can complain about something, and since the Sox won in 2004 and 2007 all we can say is "we're the Yankees now!!!" I'd rather be the Yankees than the Pirates

#41 collings94

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:00 AM

Hate to be the black cloud, but if you blew it up right now, chances are you wouldn't compete for championship one year later.

#42 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:08 AM

Hate to be the black cloud, but if you blew it up right now, chances are you wouldn't compete for championship one year later.


This is true I previously mentioned in my post that it's very likely this team would be stuck in developmental hell for 7-10 years. If you blow it up you need to also trade Pedroia Lester etc and start from scratch and take 50 cents on the dollar for most of these guys...it makes no sense to do this. I remember when people used to claim that "top free agents don't want to come to Boston" now it's "top free agents come to Boston, suck for a year or just in September (Gonzo) so lets give them away!!"

The fact that someone would want to deal A-Gon for Ryan Vogelsong who was pitching in Japan 2 years ago blows my freaking mind.

#43 Sampo Gida

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:18 AM

An interesting piece this morning by PeteAbe in the Globe and I think I agree. It may be time...

The pitching numbers since September 1 are unbelieveable.

"Since last Sept. 1, the Red Sox have allowed an average of 6.05 runs per game. Their pitching staff has a 5.58 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP.
The starters are 13-25 with a 6.41 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. Sox starters are averaging just over 5.1 innings per start over the last 56 games."

"There comes a time to blow it up and that time is steadily approaching."

http://www.boston.co...as/extra_bases/


September 2011 numbers are relevant to a team with a new GM, manager, pitching coach and different pitchers.

Over the last 16 games the teams ERA is 4.06 and they have played 500 ball.

People need to get off the ledge, it's May 10th. This teams better than this.

#44 collings94

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:25 AM

This is true I previously mentioned in my post that it's very likely this team would be stuck in developmental hell for 7-10 years. If you blow it up you need to also trade Pedroia Lester etc and start from scratch and take 50 cents on the dollar for most of these guys...it makes no sense to do this. I remember when people used to claim that "top free agents don't want to come to Boston" now it's "top free agents come to Boston, suck for a year or just in September (Gonzo) so lets give them away!!"

The fact that someone would want to deal A-Gon for Ryan Vogelsong who was pitching in Japan 2 years ago blows my freaking mind.


I love Sox fans, but we freak out to easily. I remember when this team was like, 0-2 and people were already talking about how this was the worst season ever.

#45 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:33 AM

I love Sox fans, but we freak out to easily. I remember when this team was like, 0-2 and people were already talking about how this was the worst season ever.


Boston fans in general...you forget this is the same fan base that wanted to deal Rondo and Bradley for Ricky Rubio when Rubio was on fire before getting hurt...if you have one bad game you need to be traded for half of your true value. I would love to be in a fantasy baseball league with most of the people here

#46 Scriblerus

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:33 AM

The Red Sox have a major PR problem right now. They look like frauds from ownership down to some of the players. The media is in heaven with the stories about the ridiculous sell-out streak, players underpermforming, pouting, playing golf, losing, and looking like they are resigned to defeat when things go wrong. Red Sox fans don't need a lot prompting to look at the negative, and between the play on the field and in the media, it's no surprise that certain people are saying BLOW IT UP!!

There's no reason to make drastic moves right now, but something needs to change the dynamic of this team.

#47 RochesterSamHorn

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:49 AM

When I suggested trading Beckett to Houston for W. Rodriguez, I should have elaborated the trade more. It certainly wouldn't be straight -up. An addition of an A.J. Happs, or a prospect (Clemens?) would have to be added, but I only suggested Rodriguez because Houston is frugal and would want us to take back an unwanted contract on their part. The idea is to get rid of our bad apple with the bad contract before it rots entirely. The savings more wisely reinvested. Unless you enjoy watching a declining pitcher with a bad attitude, handcuffing the payroll, pitch us to a .500 season for the next 3 yrs. And yes, I would trade 5&1/2 yrs. of 20m Carl Crawford for 2&1/2 yrs. of 24m Vernon Wells in a heartbeat. Can you do the math? Throw in Peter Bourjos and you have insurance for a future cf (which gives us the OPTION to trade Ellsbury) or an exciting rf, should Ellsbury stay. Gonzalez for Cain or Bumgarner (Vogelsong - a much larger, do I need to say that?) package would certainly be something to consider only because we can reasonably (not EQUALLY) replace 1b with many options. The whole idea is to trade away the bad contracts that Theo left us with so we can reinvent this team more economically and productively. Trading away an Ellsbury and/or Gonzalez would hurt, as they are two of the three(Pedroia, an untouchable) most productive players on the team, but if they can bring back a Felix Hernandez and a Matt Cain or Bumgarner.... I think our team is better off.

#48 Tyrone Biggums


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Posted 10 May 2012 - 10:59 AM

When I suggested trading Beckett to Houston for W. Rodriguez, I should have elaborated the trade more. It certainly wouldn't be straight -up. An addition of an A.J. Happs, or a prospect (Clemens?) would have to be added, but I only suggested Rodriguez because Houston is frugal and would want us to take back an unwanted contract on their part. The idea is to get rid of our bad apple with the bad contract before it rots entirely. The savings more wisely reinvested. Unless you enjoy watching a declining pitcher with a bad attitude, handcuffing the payroll, pitch us to a .500 season for the next 3 yrs. And yes, I would trade 5&1/2 yrs. of 20m Carl Crawford for 2&1/2 yrs. of 24m Vernon Wells in a heartbeat. Can you do the math? Throw in Peter Bourjos and you have insurance for a future cf (which gives us the OPTION to trade Ellsbury) or an exciting rf, should Ellsbury stay. Gonzalez for Cain or Bumgarner (Vogelsong - a much larger, do I need to say that?) package would certainly be something to consider only because we can reasonably (not EQUALLY) replace 1b with many options. The whole idea is to trade away the bad contracts that Theo left us with so we can reinvent this team more economically and productively. Trading away an Ellsbury and/or Gonzalez would hurt, as they are two of the three(Pedroia, an untouchable) most productive players on the team, but if they can bring back a Felix Hernandez and a Matt Cain or Bumgarner.... I think our team is better off.


Our team is better off but what incentive does San Fran or Seattle have to trade those players?

#49 plucy

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 12:44 PM

I don't know about a blow-up but a revitalization, particularly in the outfield, would be welcome. Ells is due back in a month, Crawford in two and a half so a big acquisition is not necessary, but why not let Lin and Linares get some PA's and experience over Byrd and McDonald, who are replacement level players anyway? The bar is low. Lin's plus defense,base-running and discipline and Linares' contact skills and power should hold up as well as the contributions of two thirty-something QuadA outfielders. The games would be much more interesting until Ells' return at least.

The roster will experience a huge turnover in the next three offseasons. By 2015, only Crawford, Gonzalez, Buchholz, Pedroia (option), Lackey (the mysterious injury option),Bard (arb) and Doubront (arb) will be under control barring extensions (not counting Middlebrooks or the rest of milb players we expect (hope) to come up). Youkilis probably leaves after this season, as well as Matsuzaka and Ross, Ellsbury, Sweeney and Salty after 13, and the rest go after 14 (Lester has an option for 14). So it may not be a blow-up but a slow lava flow rather than an eruption.

As for Beckett, the FO needs to decide if he is more of a distraction to their efforts than a contributor on the field. He's a very good pitcher who has disappointed because he did not maintain his Cy Young- caliber seasons every year mostly due to injuries. The recent bad press, everything from the "more important things in my life" comments, to chickengate, snitches and golf (still waiting on that one) may add up to a ticket out of town. If that is the path the Sox decide to take, he will bring back good value. They might have to pay his salary this year, but two years for $31.5M will have some takers.

Edited by plucy, 10 May 2012 - 12:45 PM.


#50 alwyn96

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Posted 10 May 2012 - 01:09 PM

The recent bad press, everything from the "more important things in my life" comments, to chickengate, snitches and golf (still waiting on that one) may add up to a ticket out of town. If that is the path the Sox decide to take, he will bring back good value. They might have to pay his salary this year, but two years for $31.5M will have some takers.

So you think bad press from a bunch of ridiculous/made-up stories should be enough to run a talented player out of town? That seems like...not a good recipe for a successful franchise. Particularly in Boston. You'd have to trade half the players on every team! Pedro in his prime! Manny in his prime! Schilling! Ted Williams! Everybody gets bad press in Boston.

Edited by alwyn96, 10 May 2012 - 01:10 PM.





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