52 replies to this topic

[budcrew08]

The payroll on the disabled list for the Red Sox is higher than a bunch of teams' total payrolls. It is early, so is the way to fix this team just waiting for the injured to heal?

[RedOctober3829]

No, it's not. Their pitching is mediocre at best and the lineup has now scored 3 runs or less in 13 of 25 games. This is a severely flawed ballclub and the flaws will not be covered up by injured players coming back(unless Ellsbury has learned to pitch since being DLed).

[pokey_reese]

Also, who are we talking about here? Lackey will not be coming back. Crawford will eventually, but by then it could easily be too late if they keep this up, and he wasn't good last year. Ellsbury is the only one who I would expect to make a big difference, and there could well be some lingering weakness not to mention rust when he does return. Youk might be back sooner than later, but the team wasn't playing well when he was in the line-up. Beckett only missed one start, but like Youk he was as much a part of the problem as anyone.

So, all hopes on Matsuzaka then?

[SumnerH]

Also, who are we talking about here? Lackey will not be coming back. Crawford will eventually, but by then it could easily be too late if they keep this up, and he wasn't good last year. Ellsbury is the only one who I would expect to make a big difference, and there could well be some lingering weakness not to mention rust when he does return. Youk might be back sooner than later, but the team wasn't playing well when he was in the line-up. Beckett only missed one start, but like Youk he was as much a part of the problem as anyone.

So, all hopes on Matsuzaka then?

Well, the big problems are pitching and the outfield. Ellsbury and Kalish represent a significant outfield upgrade, and Dice-K and Andrew Bailey couldn't hurt on the pitching front.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Does the question presuppose BobbyV might recover from dementia?

[pokey_reese]

Well, the big problems are pitching and the outfield. Ellsbury and Kalish represent a significant outfield upgrade, and Dice-K and Andrew Bailey couldn't hurt on the pitching front.

Ellsbury maybe, but Kalish represents a significant outfield upgrade? Based on what? I loved the guy and had high hopes for him, but after the last two years I don't have much in the way of expectations for 2012.

[Marbleheader]

The underperformance of the pitchers that are here is an equal, if not greater, problem. If Lester and Beckett are simply average, and Buchholz is dreadful, I don't see the return of Matsuzaka or Bailey having much more than a modest impact.

[Toe Nash]

The underperformance of the pitchers that are here is an equal, if not greater, problem. If Lester and Beckett are simply average, and Buchholz is dreadful, I don't see the return of Matsuzaka or Bailey having much more than a modest impact.

Exactly. The bullpen has actually been pretty good recently -- 1.31 ERA since April 23. But they're not going to win with their main starters underperforming like they are.

[Rasputin]

The payroll on the disabled list for the Red Sox is higher than a bunch of teams' total payrolls. It is early, so is the way to fix this team just waiting for the injured to heal?

Mostly yes. A third of the lineup is on the DL. Beckett, Lester, and Doubront are pitching okay. Bard is still a guy transitioning to a longer role and it seems to show at the end of outings. I would have thought that a manager knowing a guy is transitioning would make a special point to try to take a guy out a couple batters too early rather than a couple batters too late. Valentine doesn't seem to be doing that.

But you add Dice K to the rotation bumping Bard to the pen somewhere around mid season, get Bailey, Ellsbury, and Crawford back and you've got a really dangerous team. It's probably going to be too late to win the division but with two wild cards, the Sox really only have to finish above one of New York, Tampa, Anaheim and Texas.

The key is Buchholz, though. He hasn't had a start where he has allowed fewer than five runs and it doesn't seem to be injury related. If Dice K has to replace him then we're going to have to push Bard to start all season which I'm not terribly comfortable with. They could swap Bard and Aceves to keep Bard's innings down and probably be okay.

[dbn]

The Red Sox are scoring 5.44 runs per game, tops in the AL. The offense is not a problem. Even good offensive teams (which the Red Sox most certainly are) have some stretches of 3 or less runs per game.

The Red Sox have an ERA of 5.38, 2nd worst (MIN) in the AL. The starting pitching is, no doubt, a problem -- 5.46 ERA -- but is still better than KC (5.53), NYY (5.65) and MIN (6.87!!!). The bullpen, well, has sucked. Badly. Their 5.21 ERA is an AL worst, 0.22 points more than the next worst (TAM) and their 0.781 OPS against is an AL worst 0.016 worse than the 2nd worst (DET).

As to the question of the thread, it might be the only fix other than hoping for improvement from the healthy. I don't see a major trade happening any time soon. Hopefully Bailey comes back and performs well. How's Melancon doing in AAA? I'd like to see Tazawa back up. I'm also hoping that Matsuzaka comes back strong, but unless (at least) Lester and Beckett start pitching better, things will not improve. Buchholz actually pitching well would be fantastic, too.

[Rasputin]

The underperformance of the pitchers that are here is an equal, if not greater, problem. If Lester and Beckett are simply average, and Buchholz is dreadful, I don't see the return of Matsuzaka or Bailey having much more than a modest impact.

Exactly. The bullpen has actually been pretty good recently -- 1.31 ERA since April 23. But they're not going to win with their main starters underperforming like they are.

Game logs for Beckett:

Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B IBB GDP SF ROE aLI WPA RE24 Entered Exited
1	 280   2  Apr7   BOS DET L0-10  GS-5 L(0-1) 99  4.2  7  7  7  1  3  5   0 13.50 23  83  59  13   7  7 12  5  1   0		24  0  0  0 22  1  0   0   0  0   1 .47 -0.257 -4.70 1b start tie 5b 1-- 2 out  d7
2	 281   7 Apr13   BOS TBR W12-2  GS-8 W(1-1)  5  8.0  5  1  1  1  1  0   0  5.68 30  94  61  13   7 12 16  4  2   0		68  0  0  0 29  2  0   0   0  0   0 .82  0.294  3.21 1t start tie	 8t 3 out  a3
3	 282  12 Apr18   BOS TEX  L3-6  GS-7 L(1-2)  4  7.0  7  3  3  1  7  1   0  5.03 28 110  68  14  16  8 12  3  1   0		57  0  0  0 27  0  0   0   0  0   0 .87  0.040  0.69 1t start tie	 7t 3 out  d1
4	 283  16 Apr24   BOS MIN W11-2  GS-6 W(2-2)  5  6.0  5  2  2  3  5  0   0  4.56 26 100  65  22   7  9  9  3  1   0		56  0  0  0 23  3  0   0   0  0   0 .87  0.077  0.95 1b start a 3	 6b 3 out  a8
5	 284  21 Apr29   BOS CHW  L1-4  GS-7 L(2-3)  4  6.2  6  3  3  3  8  1   0  4.45 29 126  85  22  13  7 11  3  1   0		55  1  0  0 25  0  0   0   0  0   0 .48 -0.120 -0.17 1b start tie 7b 123 2 out  d2

And Lester:

Rk Gcar Gtm Date Tm Opp Rslt Inngs Dec DR IP H R ER BB SO HR HBP ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B IBB GDP SF ROE aLI WPA RE24 Entered Exited
1	  156   1  Apr5   BOS DET  L2-3		 GS-7 99  7.0  6  1  1  3  4  0   0 1.29 27 107  63  20  12  7 13  5  2   0		62  0  0  0 24  2  0   0   3  0   0 1.32  0.199  2.55 1b start tie	 7b 3 out  d1
2	  157   6 Apr11   BOS TOR  L1-3 CG(8) L(0-1)  5  8.0  3  3  3  2  6  0   0 2.40 29 116  74  15  12 10 11  3  1   0		68  1  0  0 26  0  1   0   0  1   0  .75  0.055  1.22 1b start tie	 8b 3 out  d2
3	  158  11 Apr17   BOS TEX L3-18  GS-3 L(0-2)  5  2.0  8  7  7  4  2  1   0 5.82 17  80  46  17   2  6  5  2  0   0		10  0  0  0 13  1  0   0   1  0   0 1.38 -0.422 -4.79 1t start tie 3t 123 0 out  d2
4	  159  15 Apr23   BOS MIN  W6-5		 GS-7  5  7.0  6  5  5  4  4  1   0 6.00 28 112  71  25   9 11  9  4  1   0		45  0  0  0 24  1  0   0   3  0   0  .93 -0.250 -1.56 1b start a 1	 7b 3 out tie
5	  160  20 Apr28   BOS CHW  W1-0  GS-7 W(1-2)  4  7.0  5  0  0  1  7  0   0 4.65 27 122  78  21  13 11  8  4  2   0		73  0  0  0 26  2  0   0   0  0   0 1.36  0.496  3.62 1b start tie	 7b 3 out  a1
May	May May   May	Tm Opp  Rslt Inngs	Dec DR   IP  H  R ER BB SO HR HBP  ERA BF Pit Str StL StS GB FB LD PU Unk GSc IR IS SB CS PO AB 2B 3B IBB GDP SF ROE  aLI	WPA  RE24	  Entered		   Exited
6	  161  25  May4   BOS BAL  L4-6		 GS-6  5  6.0  5  3  3  3  2  1   0 4.62 25  99  60  20   5 10 10  2  1   0		49  0  0  0 22  0  1   0   1  0   0 1.09  0.031  0.16 1t start tie	 6t 3 out  a1

Combined, they have three starts where they have allowed three runs or more. Beckett, Lester, and Doubront are as completely blameless as a player can be in all this.

Edited by Rasputin, 05 May 2012 - 07:16 PM.

[dbn]

Good point about the bullpen being better lately. 77 2/3 IP is a pretty small sample size to be quoting ERA and OPS numbers. They are meaningful, but don't tell the whole story.

Anyway, some of that good recent performance has come from the likes of Clayton Mortensen and Matt Albers, who may just not be able to keep up their current performances.

[Plympton91]

They've also got to stop thinking they can play the hoarding game and just put the best players on the roster in the best spots for them to succeed. Junichi Tazawa is one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization. Get him in the majors and use him correctly. They have a bunch of platoon outfielders and the left side of the infield could also benefit from playing some matchups. Get the best combination of position players on the bench to maximize those platoon splits--that means either commit to Anderson as a LF against righthanders, or trade for a lefthanded hitting outfielder NOW. Enough with the hording of mediocre at best "talent" coming in the way of having the best players available to the manager to get through this injury spell.

[Rasputin]

The Red Sox are scoring 5.44 runs per game, tops in the AL. The offense is not a problem. Even good offensive teams (which the Red Sox most certainly are) have some stretches of 3 or less runs per game.

The Red Sox have an ERA of 5.38, 2nd worst (MIN) in the AL. The starting pitching is, no doubt, a problem -- 5.46 ERA -- but is still better than KC (5.53), NYY (5.65) and MIN (6.87!!!). The bullpen, well, has sucked. Badly. Their 5.21 ERA is an AL worst, 0.22 points more than the next worst (TAM) and their 0.781 OPS against is an AL worst 0.016 worse than the 2nd worst (DET).

As to the question of the thread, it might be the only fix other than hoping for improvement from the healthy. I don't see a major trade happening any time soon. Hopefully Bailey comes back and performs well. How's Melancon doing in AAA? I'd like to see Tazawa back up. I'm also hoping that Matsuzaka comes back strong, but unless (at least) Lester and Beckett start pitching better, things will not improve. Buchholz actually pitching well would be fantastic, too.

The bullpen suck is largely in the past. Reference the post above with the 1.31 ERA in the past couple weeks or whatever. ERA is not the best measure but you can't watch the games and tell me the bullpen has been terrible lately.

Beckett, Lester, Bard, and Doubront have five games between them where they have allowed more than three runs. Buchholz has had no games where he's allowed fewer than five. The Sox have allowed 139 runs and Buchholz has allowed 29 of them. That's almost 21% of the runs in about 11% of the innings pitched.

We have two problems right now.

1) Buchholz is terrible.
2) The offense is anemic.

The anemic offense almost has to be a short term mirage considering how many runs this team has scored.

[Marbleheader]

Blameless? Disagree. Lester has been somewhat disappointing for an ace. He got hit hard by a horrible Minnesota team and embarrassed by Texas. He faced a middling Baltimore team at home, when his team really needed a home win, and he only went six. 25 k's through 6 starts isn't great either. He's had a couple of very good starts, but he needs to step up and be more consistent.

[Toe Nash]

Combined, they have three starts where they have allowed three runs or more. Beckett, Lester, and Doubront are as completely blameless as a player can be in all this.

Except for Beckett pitching without letting the coaches or manager know he was hurt a little bit and then having to miss a start, yeah, Beckett is blameless. And the three starts where they did allow more than three were pretty bad. Is there anyone out there who expected a combined 4.54 ERA from the two? Sure, not awful, but most people were expecting more like 3.54.

[patinorange]

The bullpen suck is largely in the past. Reference the post above with the 1.31 ERA in the past couple weeks or whatever. ERA is not the best measure but you can't watch the games and tell me the bullpen has been terrible lately.

The recent improvement in the bullpen is somewhat encouraging, but I'm not sure it couldn't go the other way very quickly.

There doesn't appear to be any reasonable options other than wait out the injuries. They still have a top level offense. It's just a matter of when the injured can return and how far out they will be when they come back.

Personally, I'm rooting for a Dice K miracle and more enthusiastic fly ball shagging in batting practice for Toronto and Tampa pitchers. That might be the best shot to reach that one game playoff.

[Rasputin]

There doesn't appear to be any reasonable options other than wait out the injuries.

This is probably the most important true fact in the discussion. The long term health of the club says we can't trade the few high quality prospects we have in the high minors so if we end up having to just ride out this year without big changes while hopefully getting most of Lavarnway, Middlebrooks, Iglesias, and Kalish ready to be MLB regulars in 2013 then that's what we do and if by some miracle we could enter 2013 with all of them in the lineup we'd be able to afford to keep Papi around for a couple more years.

[tonyarmasjr]

Game logs for Beckett:

Combined, they have three starts where they have allowed three runs or more. Beckett, Lester, and Doubront are as completely blameless as a player can be in all this.

So, our two aces have gotten hammered in 30% of their starts? After stepping up in such a big way down the stretch last season? And with two other starters on the DL and two new ones at the back end of the rotation behind them? And a bullpen that hasn't been able to hold a lead? Sure, that's not all their fault. But, I expect an "ace" to step up and carry his team when it needs it. They haven't been awful, but this team needs them to be better.

[SumnerH]

So, our two aces have gotten hammered in 30% of their starts?

1. 3/11 is 27.2%, not 30%.
2. Allowing 3 or more runs isn't getting hammered. Pedro Martinez's 2000 is arguably the greatest year by a pitcher ever; he allowed 3 or more runs in 8 out of 29 games (27.6%).

[Philip Jeff Frye]

What makes us think that others won't get hurt before the current DL brigade returns? Maybe its just incredibly bad luck, but this franchise sure seems to have collected more than its share of injuries over the last 2+ seasons.

[PedroSpecialK]

They've also got to stop thinking they can play the hoarding game and just put the best players on the roster in the best spots for them to succeed. Junichi Tazawa is one of the 12 best pitchers in the organization. Get him in the majors and use him correctly. They have a bunch of platoon outfielders and the left side of the infield could also benefit from playing some matchups. Get the best combination of position players on the bench to maximize those platoon splits--that means either commit to Anderson as a LF against righthanders, or trade for a lefthanded hitting outfielder NOW. Enough with the hording of mediocre at best "talent" coming in the way of having the best players available to the manager to get through this injury spell.

Could not agree more. With the fungible talent that's readily available for free (either on the waiver wire or off the street) or for cheap on the trade market, there is minimal advantage to be gained by guarding at-or-just-above replacement-level talent on the 25/40 man rosters when there are either upgrades that can be made through trade or un/under-explored scenarios whereby more talented players can prove to be better alternatives - i.e. WMB at 3B with Youkilis traded for either OF or MR help (I'd say both but I don't think his value's that high) and/or Tazawa in the bullpen and Anderson in LF as P91 mentioned until Ellsbury returns.

[Dollar]

1. 3/11 is 27.2%, not 30%.
2. Allowing 3 or more runs isn't getting hammered. Pedro Martinez's 2000 is arguably the greatest year by a pitcher ever; he allowed 3 or more runs in 8 out of 29 games (27.6%).

The original stat was a little off, as they have allowed 3 or more runs in 7/11 starts. The 3/11 starts is when they have allowed 4 or more runs. Either way, allowing 3 runs over 6-8 innings isn't so bad. And I'm never upset when the words Pedro and 2000 are mentioned in the same sentence.

Also, Pedro in 2000 allowed 4 or more runs in 2 out of 29 games (6.9%). Amazing.

Edited by Dollar, 05 May 2012 - 11:52 PM.

[Harry Hooper]

1. 3/11 is 27.2%, not 30%.
2. Allowing 3 or more runs isn't getting hammered. Pedro Martinez's 2000 is arguably the greatest year by a pitcher ever; he allowed 3 or more runs in 8 out of 29 games (27.6%).

In regard to #1, you are correct but I'm not sure the difference really transforms things.

In regard to #2, the measure being cited was allowing more than 3 runs. This is something Pedro v. 2000 did exactly twice all year. He also pitched at least 7 innings in every start except for 3, and one of these was his last start of the season.

Oh, he also put up an ERA+ of 291 and a WHIP of 0.737.

Lester and Beckett have not been doing their jobs as dominating hurlers so far in 2012. They've gone more than 6 innings in 7 out of 11 starts, so that's 4 starts already with under 7 IP vs. the 3 Pedro had all season in 2000. Both have an ERA+ under 100, and Beckett leads the team's starters with a WHIP of 1.206 -- tied for 24th in the league among starters.

The Orioles starter that beat the Sox today had the 12th-best AL WHIP among starters going into the game, and has an ERA+ of 207 in 2012.

[MikeM]

The anemic offense almost has to be a short term mirage considering how many runs this team has scored.

I'm not so sure there. Push Gonzalez's struggles against Ortiz's torrid start and that currently leaves us with Pedroia, 5 guys who are all arguably on the plus side of their (conservatively) projected production levels (with Sweeney being an off the charts plus), two relative scrubs we'd probably like to see get as little at-bats as possible in Punto/McDonald, and another two potential over-the-hill washouts in Youk/Byrd.

Maybe Middlebrooks lights it up and never looks back going forward from here, but SSS aside, i'm still having a hard time seeing the Youk/WMB scenario play itself out that way atm. An "i figured my shit out" Ellsbury coming back should/would obviously help, but between now and then....ehh. The team ended April hitting at an .281/.336/.474 clip. Thus far we're at .202/.290/.298 for the month of May.

Obviously that May line will improve, but this lineup of players and back to being April's .811 OPS level of good? Just not seeing it.

[YTF]

The payroll on the disabled list for the Red Sox is higher than a bunch of teams' total payrolls. It is early, so is the way to fix this team just waiting for the injured to heal?

Not so sure that waiting "fixes" the team, but really what are the options here? A Marlon Byrd type pick up is really about the best you could have hoped for in the short term until Ellsbury and Crawford come back, as is Middlebrooks coming up while Youk is on the DL. Dice-K seems to be not too far away from coming back, but will he be taking Buchholz' spot in the rotation? Right now that is where he might do the most good. Bailey's not coming back until at least after the All Star break. I think the real question here might be, as presently constituted can this team stay afloat and hover around .500 (or better) until guys can get back from the DL and live up to what most of believe are realistic expections for the season? Crawford and Matsuzaka are the wild cards in all of this. Crawford has to come back healthy and provide some sort of offense because Youk seems to be breaking down really quick and I'm not convinced that Ellsbury's 2011 season is going to be the type of campaign that we're going to see from him on a yearly basis. And I think the team NEEDS for Matsuzaka to have one of those seasons where a guy coming of Tommy John surgery seems to come back better than he was before. Were not all that far from 1/4 of the shedule being off the books. The "Top Three" haven't been as stellar as we all hoped. Buchholz seems lost out there most of the time and Lester and Beckett aren't the stoppers you would need them to be at this point. Would also be nice if Gonzalez would heat up a little while we're waiting for a few guys to get back.

Edited by YTF, 06 May 2012 - 06:18 AM.

[Trautwein's Degree]

This team is 2 to 5 years away from being fixed. The sooner they begin dramatically reshaping this roster and organization - the sooner they'll improve. They may as well give as many at bats to Middlebrooks and Lavarnway as possible. Stretch Bard out properly and build for 2014.

Edited by Trautwein's Degree, 06 May 2012 - 06:52 AM.

[tonyarmasjr]

1. 3/11 is 27.2%, not 30%.
2. Allowing 3 or more runs isn't getting hammered. Pedro Martinez's 2000 is arguably the greatest year by a pitcher ever; he allowed 3 or more runs in 8 out of 29 games (27.6%).

Allowing 3 or more runs isn't necessarily getting hammered. But allowing 5, 7, and 7 runs in those starts (in a combined 13.2 innings) is. Again, I'm not saying they've sucked. I'm saying an "ace" needs to rise to the occasion. They've left the game with a lead in 4 of those 11 starts, losing in 6 of them. 2000 Pedro gave up 5+ ER once - in 8 IP, and he left with the score tied.

[fineyoungarm]

Allowing 3 or more runs isn't necessarily getting hammered. But allowing 5, 7, and 7 runs in those starts (in a combined 13.2 innings) is. Again, I'm not saying they've sucked. I'm saying an "ace" needs to rise to the occasion. They've left the game with a lead in 4 of those 11 starts, losing in 6 of them. 2000 Pedro gave up 5+ ER once - in 8 IP, and he left with the score tied.

The term "stopper" is not used as much as it once was (although I haven't gone back through all the posts in this thread) - and it pretty much tells the tale of what this rotation lacks presently (and perhaps long term). Usually, it's an ace - as you point out. Not always though. This pitcher, who as enough ability and lots of heart and grit, gets not just a W, but goes deep into a game, 2 runs max, when all others around him are flailing - several times during the course of a season (or often, half a season or so), if need be. The last starter, who filled the role, to my mind, was Wakefield (of all people) - and, no, not in 2011.

A stopper can make an average team a good team and keep it in the hunt for the playoffs - until that team gets on a hot streak. Then the race is on.

This may be an average or even a good team, if Ellsbury, Bailey and Dice-K for example come back by mid June - but not good enough to make a serious run at the post season - without "that man" on the rotation. I don't see him.

[bosockboy]

As constituted, this team needs Lester and Beckett to be pure aces to mask the other deficiencies on the pitching staff and team as a whole. Johnson/Schilling masked an otherwise mediocre team in 2001. It can be done....but those two need to step up....at least until reinforcements come.

[fineyoungarm]

As constituted, this team needs Lester and Beckett to be pure aces to mask the other deficiencies on the pitching staff and team as a whole. Johnson/Schilling masked an otherwise mediocre team in 2001. It can be done....but those two need to step up....at least until reinforcements come.

Hard (and dumb) to try and argue with that. Not a big fan of psychoanalyzing athletes (or anyone for that matter) - but, if Beckett is healthy, wonder whether their so - so performances are the result of physical issues or "mental" (Yeah, I know. Also probably has been hashed over and lampooned before this early post of mine.)

Last year these guys were properly brutalized by media and fans. I don't care how stoic or professoinal they are, that gets inside one's head.

Beckett still pissed - and has to be on same team as the "snitch"? Does he pitch last time out (sort of) hurt ( as opposed to advising McClure), because he believes he has something to prove?

Lester still feeling guilty/shamed - enough to press just enough to hard to lose edge? (Does not explain 2 to 6 cutters on Friday).

Cosmic question - too soon to answer - but, given last season - are either or both of these guys better ball players elsewhere? (One way to put it.)

[Buzzkill Pauley]

As constituted, this team needs Lester and Beckett to be pure aces to mask the other deficiencies on the pitching staff and team as a whole. Johnson/Schilling masked an otherwise mediocre team in 2001. It can be done....but those two need to step up....at least until reinforcements come.

As constituted, what the Sox need is for 2008 DiceK to take Buchholz' place in the rotation.

I still am shocked that, somehow, the Sox replaced 2011 John Lackey with a worse pitcher.

[bosockboy]

If this season doesn't come together (definitely still can), I'd really love to do a true blow up. Trade expensive veterans like Beckett, Youkilis....swap some bad contracts....get a young manager next year and build around Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Lester, Buchholz and some young pitching acquired via trade (I don't expect Ellsbury to be around long term).

[BosRedSox5]

It's not, by then it'll be too late.

Here's my fix:

Step 1: Offer Roy Oswalt $20 million and a backhoe
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit

Seriously, the team has just been awful. I don't know how they can dig their way out of this, but they have got to do something.

[Plympton91]

One thing that would be nice is if the team could actually identify players who are injured.

Crawford had basically a torn elbow ligament and a wrist that needed surgery, but they didn't identify and thus didn't prepare for his extended absence.

Youkilis broke down again basically as the season started, from an injury that is chronic. Yet, they felt perfectly comfortable trading both Scutaro and Lowrie, leaving only an aging defense-first replacement available.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Youkilis broke down again basically as the season started, from an injury that is chronic. Yet, they felt perfectly comfortable trading both Scutaro and Lowrie, leaving only an aging defense-first replacement available.

To be fair, WMB looks like a better replacement for Youk than either Scutaro or Lowrie.

Lowrie does look like a far, far better UT than Punto though.

[Rasputin]

Seriously, the team has just been awful. I don't know how they can dig their way out of this, but they have got to do something.

What they have to do is not overreact.

Unless you're planning on trading for two more high quality outfielders there's not much that can be done.

You do the best with what you have, preserve the limited short term minor league resources, and if it means you miss the playoffs this season then you suck it up because the alternative is fucking things up to a fare thee well.

And, to forestall the obvious, if you think things are currently fucked up to a fare thee well then you need to learn what "fucked up to a fare thee well" really means.

[Rasputin]

Lowrie does look like a far, far better UT than Punto though.

So does my Aunt Maybelle and I'm pretty sure she's dead.

[HriniakPosterChild]

Lowrie does look like a far, far better UT than Punto though.

Hey, Lowrie may even be a far, far better reliever than Melancon.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Hey, Lowrie may even be a far, far better reliever than Melancon.

Certainly than McDonald.

[86spike]

Can the Sox add any payroll? Seems like they have very little flexibility with that so trades aren't an option.

They need to find better performers from within or wait for improved health. That's it.

[Paul M]

I haven't written anything in probably 7-8 months but watching a first baseman strike out our All-Star first baseman was enough to get me to compose something. I was thinking of the 10 or so keys to the season and 8 have definitively not gone the Red Sox way which in some ways is even more extraordinary than the pitching staff all shitting the their pants last September.

Buchholz, Youkilis, Crawford arguably were the 3 guys who had to return to their baseline levels and all have failed pretty spectacularly. The next group has some winners--Bard, Sweeney--but losers like Bailey and Melancon. Hard to fathom how they've managed consecutive 30-game stretches this poor.

Looking over the last 25 or so years I imagine it can be overly simplified but not wrong to say as the starters' ERA goes so go the Sox--or almost any team but especially Boston. Sitting at 13th of 14 teams is about where we are in the standings as well so whatever happened over the years that led us here has to be about correcting that. I was never a fan of the Lackey signing or moves designed to improve the defense which I think is fraught with problems.

And then you bring in the volatile Valentine to lead this broken team and it comes down to Dice K of all people perhaps being the difference between revelvance and contention or a true blow-up. Can the manager with more experience in Japan than most be there to help the guy who was supposed to be the next ace which we were blessed to have had earlier in the form of Clemens than Pedro and Schilling? I really thought the 2nd wild-card was the best and only chance this version of the Red Sox makes the playoffs in 2012 as I did not like the overall talent on this roster going into Spring Training. Maybe I'm off-base here and I freely admit not having my finger on the pulse of this team that well as I watched more today than I have any other game, picking it up and telling myself one more inning before I mow the lawn (lawn still unmowed). I guess the logical side of me says Dice K is the last person who bestow the honor of saving your season but then again who had Albert Pujols as the worst regular in baseball as a likely outcome?

[86spike]

In Mark Prior We Trust

[bosockboy]

Nothing tangible to substantiate this, but I think the loss of Farrell after 2010 really hurt the pitching staff and they haven't really recovered from it. Buchholz in particular, who finally put it all together in 2010.

I expect him to be brought back to manage the team after Valentine's 2 year stint.

[Plympton91]

Nothing tangible to substantiate this, but I think the loss of Farrell after 2010 really hurt the pitching staff and they haven't really recovered from it. Buchholz in particular, who finally put it all together in 2010.

Could be; of course, 2012 is also the first year in the past 15 that Jason Varitek has no input into the gameplan of the starting pitcher.

[trekfan55]

If this season doesn't come together (definitely still can), I'd really love to do a true blow up. Trade expensive veterans like Beckett, Youkilis....swap some bad contracts....get a young manager next year and build around Adrian Gonzalez, Pedroia, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Lester, Buchholz and some young pitching acquired via trade (I don't expect Ellsbury to be around long term).

Easier said than done though. This is not the NFL, at least there the team can cut some players, eat some salary cap dead space for 1 year and start building.

Here, if (and that's a very big if) they can get some team to accept a subsidized Beckett (who can veto any trade), or a cooked Youkilis, or an ineffective Buchholz, also subsidized, is not an easy task and will yield very little return, plus it will not help aleviate payroll.

[lexrageorge]

While a lot of virtual ink gets spilled on the injuries, I don't believe it's going to be a simple matter of waiting for everyone to magically return to health.

First the position players: Ellsbury is the big one, and the one most likely to return to some semblance of form this season. While we may not be able to expect a 0.928 OPS from him this season, even an 0.850 OPS guy with his speed will at least help the OF depth significantly. And by most reports it appears he should be back to full strength at or before the ASB. Crawford and Youks are much more concerning. Both had major regressions last season, and I've yet to hear encouraging reports on either one on the injury front. It's probably not realistic to expect 0.900 and 0.820 OPS from Youks and Crawford, respectively. Plus, so far both of their replacements have performed better than the original starters. Yes, it would be nice to see fewer at bats from Punto and McDonald off the bench, but that will only have a marginal impact on a team that is 3rd in the league in offense.

The real problem is the pitching staff, in particular the starting pitching. Lester, who's healthy, has the 2nd lowest K/BB ratio in the entire staff (DH cameo's aside). Beckett, who appears to be making his next start, has by far the lowest K/9 rate of his career. Any metric that shows Buchholz with a positive WAR would be extremely flawed (I haven't found one that does). Doubront, leading the staff in K/9, and Bard, leading in ERA, have been as good or better than most team's 4th and 5th starters, but it is reasonable to expect some growing pains with both as the season gets longer and opposing lineups face them a 2nd or 3rd time.

The "wait and hope" strategy has worked for the bullpen, but the starters' inability to either go deep into games is going to cost them. While I realize that this isn't the NFL, if the team is 20 games out come mid-June, they can't just do nothing. Buchholz shouldn't be treated as if his job is guaranteed; if he's not hurt, option him when Dice-K comes back, if not sooner. If Tazawa is pitching lights out in Pawtucket, bring him up and put him in the rotation.

[Plympton91]

How long do you stick with Byrd? You have to start taking his post-beaning sample as a new normal. Maybe they should use McDonald as the CF and Byrd in the platoon role? Or, if you're only getting a 580 OPS anyway, go with Lin? Or, screw defense, put Ross in CF and Anderson/Kroger/Nava in left?

Also, Middlebrooks was a shortstop. If Youk can get some semblance of healthy before the outfielders are back, you need to consider Middlebrooks in LF.

[trekfan55]

How long do you stick with Byrd? You have to start taking his post-beaning sample as a new normal. Maybe they should use McDonald as the CF and Byrd in the platoon role? Or, if you're only getting a 580 OPS anyway, go with Lin? Or, screw defense, put Ross in CF and Anderson/Kroger/Nava in left?

Also, Middlebrooks was a shortstop. If Youk can get some semblance of healthy before the outfielders are back, you need to consider Middlebrooks in LF.

Byrd plays a competent CF (yeah I know he is to blame for 2 runs last night) so unless McDonald has a spectacular bat (he doesn't) I see no reason to give McD more playing time.

Edited by trekfan55, 08 May 2012 - 10:55 AM.

[The Gray Eagle]

The fix isn't about waiting for the injured players to return, it's about hoping for the players who've sucked or only been mediocre when we need them to be great to start playing the way they can.

Sure getting Ellsbury back playing anything close to what he did last year would be a big help, but that might not happen this year, and it might not even be necessary to get the team back into the playoff race. Buchholz has been horrible, and he was counted on to be a good pitcher. Lester, Beckett, Youkilis and Gonzalez were counted on to be stars, and they haven't been. If just those players come around and the rest of the team stays about where they are now, then they'll win enough games to get back in the playoff race.

Actually, even leaving out the hittters-- If Beckett and Lester can only put up ERA+ in the 90s while Buchholz continues to be worthless, this team will continue to suck. The front of the rotation won't pitch enough innings and will allow too many runs, the bullpen will start sucking again from consistent overuse, and the offense won't be great enough to overcome all that, even if Ellsbury comes back strong.

The "big 3" starting pitchers need to be a lot better overall-- right now Beckett's ERA+ is 95, Lester's is 91 and Buchholz is a comical 46. Somehow they need to get the sum of those three numbers up over 300 as soon as possible, because those guys being good is a huge part of this team's roster construction.