5 replies to this topic

[pappymojo]

So, there has been some discussion about the Trade Value Chart and how accurate it really is, especially in light of the new rookie pay scale as implemented in the most recent CBA.

Now that the 2012 NFL draft is complete, I ran some numbers based on the actual trades that were completed in the draft (excluding trades for future picks or players). There were 22 trades in total.

Because of draft picks that were awarded to teams who lost free agents, I assumed that any pick higher than 224 was only worth 1.5 points.

Round		Greater than 200 (Points Difference)	199 Through 150		149 Through 100	99 Through 50	49 Through 25	24 Through 10		9 Through 0	Negative
1		1	0		1	3	0	1		0	2
2		0	0		1	0	2	1		1	0
3		0	0		0	0	1	0		3	0
4		0	0		0	0	0	0		2	0
5		0	0		0	0	0	1		2	0
6		0	0		0	0	0	0		0	0
7		0	0		0	0	0	0		0	0
Total Trades		1	0		2	3	3	3		8	2

The Negative column indicates that the team trading down acquired more points in value than their original pick. For example, in the first round, Baltimore traded 29 (640 points) for 35 (550) and 98 (108), a difference of -18 points according to the trade value chart. For every other trade but the two in the negative column, the team trading down gave up more points than they got in return.

What stands out to me is that 13 trades (out of 22) had a point value difference 24 points or less.

Edited by pappymojo, 01 May 2012 - 04:08 PM.

[wutang112878]

Didnt the rookie wage scale really just change the compensation for the 1st rounders and the biggest impact was for the top 10 guys? I know it somewhat affected all the picks after 32 as well, but it was my understanding that the biggest impact was really at the top of the draft. So if we really want to look at the value chart again, perhaps we should just look at trades that involve 1st round picks?

[Shelterdog]

Didnt the rookie wage scale really just change the compensation for the 1st rounders and the biggest impact was for the top 10 guys? I know it somewhat affected all the picks after 32 as well, but it was my understanding that the biggest impact was really at the top of the draft. So if we really want to look at the value chart again, perhaps we should just look at trades that involve 1st round picks?

Massive changes for the top ten (especially the top five--Luck's getting about a third or what bradford got), small changes for picks 11-32.

[Untold]

Interesting study on 'How to Value NFL Draft Picks."

[Worst Trade Evah]

Interesting study on 'How to Value NFL Draft Picks."

That's pretty interesting. Doesn't the value line projected by the new model in the article pretty much line up with the Patriot draft philosophy of recent years (before this year of course)? That is, a tendency to trade down into the 2-4 rounds? Before this year, teams seemed to consistently over-value picks near the top of the draft.

[pappymojo]

http://www.stateofth...ans.com/?p=4150

Under the new CBA, all drafted rookies receive a 4-year deal, but contracts for first rounders include a mandatory 5^th year team option.

This could also cause teams with early second round picks to want to trade into the end of the first round. It might also explain why Belichick traded up with both of his first round picks, in that he wanted to maximize the opportunity of the fifth year option, by targeting players that he expects to make that team option worthwhile, similar to a built in franchise tag.

Edit: font size

Edited by pappymojo, 07 May 2012 - 10:58 AM.