87 replies to this topic

[Snodgrass'Muff]

... It'll be interesting to see how they make room for Middlebrooks in 2013. They can pick up Youk's option and look to trade him. They can choose not to pick up the option and offer arb, hoping he'll decline and move on. They could decline the option and not offer arb as well. They could even look to trade Youk this season if Middlebrooks forces them to call him up in July by continuing to rake (obviously the least likely option). They can choose to let Ortiz walk without an offer and move Youk to DH. They can offer Ortiz arb hoping he'll decline so they can move Youk to DH. Or they could make EV's day and look to move Youk to the outfield and still bring back Papi (OK, maybe this is the least likely).

At some point the team will need to move on from Ortiz. The tricky part is doing it at the right time. The way he's been going the last two years or so, it seems likely that they'll probably part ways a touch too early rather than too late, especially with Middlebrooks pushing the decision like he has been. Personally, I'm thinking letting Ortiz walk after the season and moving Youk to DH probably makes the most sense. Having a DH who can play both corner infield positions would be great and would help to keep him healthy all season.

Of course, if he misses significant time down the stretch again, maybe letting him walk and bringing Papi back for another year on an arb deal would be the best approach. Either way, it'll be an interesting situation to watch develop over the next 8-10 months or so. The thought of a roster with a healthy Youk spelling 1B and 3B, Lavarnway backing up the C spot and DHing occasionally, with Middlebrooks at 3rd is a lot of fun, though.

[JakeRae]

At this point, the most likely scenarios involve WMB starting at 3rd next year and one of Youk or Ortiz not being in the organization.

The first evaluation point on the Youk/Ortiz controversy is this July. If WMB is still destroying AAA, it will be time to start seeing if a NL contender wants to overpay for Youk. With him not just being a single season rental, it's possible that Youk could bring back a ton of value at that point.

After that, there isn't a real decision to be made until the offseason in regard to both Youk and Ortiz. It's hard to imagine a scenario where both of them come back considering that Middlebrooks is already knocking on the door. Right now, I'd put greater odds on Ortiz being with the team next year than Youk largely because of the difference in health history and partially because I believe there is real value in a proven DH vis-a-vis a great hitter with limited experience at DH.

An important thing to note is that bringing Ortiz back does not necessitate paying him $16 million in arbitration. The team could decline to offer arb and likely sign Ortiz for 1 year at 13 or 14 million or 2 years in the low 20's even after a great season. Regardless, it'll be pretty awesome to be in the situation of choosing between All Stars and an elite prospect.

[mabrowndog]

This debate would probably be better suited for the main board, but I really can't see the Sox bringing Youk back, even if they walk away from Papi. Frankly his $13M option is too rich, and picking it up to try and work a trade is a risky maneuver.

I also can't see him settling for a one-year contract as a DH and part-time corner man. Assuming the Sox decline the option, if Youk remains relatively healthy and productive all year, and is told at season's end that WMB will be the starting 3B in 2013 in no uncertain terms, he'd be crazy to accept arbitration. Serving as a reserve will do nothing to build his market value in his push for what would certainly be his final "big" contract. Plus by waiting a year, he'd be 35 by the time he breaks camp with any new suitor in 2014.

He'll be doing himself the bigger favor as a free agent this winter. Third base is a HUGE black hole all across the majors right now. AL teams projected to have vacancies or be in need of upgrades include:

BAL - No way they pick up Reynolds' $11M option
CWS - Brent Morel isn't working out
CLE - Hannahan's started hot, but he's a FA this winter
MIN - Valencia & Burroughs both suck
OAK - They lost Scott Sizemore for the year, and the Sogard/Hughes platoon has been dreadful.
LAA - Izturis just returned from the DL but he's barely adequate and a pending FA. Callaspo's toast, and it's highly unlikely Trumbo (.292 OBP last year) maintains his early pace (.342/.405/.632/1.036). Plus Trumbo's defense blows. Least likely landing spot since Trumbo's young & cheap.

Youk can't sell his DH flexibility in the NL, but there are even more potential homes for him there:

ATL - Chipper's retiring
ARI - Ryan Roberts + Geoff Blum = Putrid
CHC - Ian Stewart's cheap and under club control, but he's awful. Jeff Baker's a FA this winter.
CIN - It's Youk's hometown, and Rolen's contract is up.
HOU - Chris Johnson? See Ian Stewart.
LAD - Something tells me the new owners won't stand pat with Juan Uribe
NYM - They're certain to buy out Wright's $16M option
PHI - Polanco will be 37 this fall with a $5.5M mutual option, and he's officially a pumpkin
PIT - How much longer can they wait for Alvarez to pan out?

From a supply/demand position, this winter stands to be the absolute perfect storm for Youk. Numerous big-market teams will be at the table, and someone will overpay for Billy Beane's binky.

This also strengthen's Boston's position to deal Youk at the deadline. He'd hit the market, and the Sox would ostensibly make out like gangbusters in terms of prospects. With the new CBA's slot pool diminishing the value of additional draft picks, the Sox might prefer to make a trade rather than go the offer-arb-and-get-2-picks route. Either way, they're going to get something of value back for him.

Regardless of whether or not they re-sign Ortiz, I'm pretty sure we're witnessing Youk's swan song in Boston.

.

Edited by mabrowndog, 27 April 2012 - 04:29 PM.

[OttoC]

I really thought they were going to try to move Youkilis this past off season, then the fiasco started.

[JakeRae]

I really thought they were going to try to move Youkilis this past off season, then the fiasco started.

I did too. That said, if he has a strong season and they don't trade him at the deadline, I disagree with mabrowndog about not picking up his option. With his injury history and coming off a good season, Youkilis on a 1-year contract is extraordinarily valuable. There will be $7 million plus in surplus value in that contract plus the lack of long-term risk that an acquiring team would be paying for. Youkilis lowest WAR (fWAR or rWAR) mark in the last 5 seasons is 3.7. If he turns in another 4+ WAR season the Red Sox have to pick up his option. The fact that there would be multiple suitors will keep the team's need to sell him from reducing his value much. Also, the Red Sox potential ability to absorb some of his salary could put small market teams with quality rosters in the bidding that might ordinarily be unable to afford a veteran talent like Youk.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I really thought they were going to try to move Youkilis this past off season, then the fiasco started.

Better deals are sure to be had at the trade deadline than in the offseason, assuming Youk rebounds to a .800+ OPS by then.

The Sox really could use a team like the Phillies or Nats to come through with a VMart-like package of two quality prospects and one good young MLB player.

[Sprowl]

Splitting off from the Middlebrooks prospect thread...

***

This debate would probably be better suited for the main board, but I really can't see the Sox bringing Youk back, even if they walk away from Papi. Frankly his $13M option is too rich, and picking it up to try and work a trade is a risky maneuver.
...
This also strengthen's Boston's position to deal Youk at the deadline. He'd hit the market, and the Sox would ostensibly make out like gangbusters in terms of prospects. With the new CBA's slot pool diminishing the value of additional draft picks, the Sox might prefer to make a trade rather than go the offer-arb-and-get-2-picks route. Either way, they're going to get something of value back for him.

Regardless of whether or not they re-sign Ortiz, I'm pretty sure we're witnessing Youk's swan song in Boston.

I'm afraid you're right. Youk has always been one of my favorite Heroes of 2007, but his will be a swan song to remember.




A trading deadline deal seems like a good value-maximizing opportunity, since every would-be contender always needs another middle-of-the-order bat, and plenty of teams will need 1B, 3B or both.

Better deals are sure to be had at the trade deadline than in the offseason, assuming Youk rebounds to a .800+ OPS by then.

The Sox really could use a team like the Phillies or Nats to come through with a VMart-like package of two quality prospects and one good young MLB player.

Another good reason for keeping him healthy by resting him against the occasional RHP with a good slider. Keep him hitting lefties, fastballs, and Fenway, and his value can be maximized.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

The NL is ripe with possible trade targets: WAS, PHI, ATL, CIN, COL, and LAD are all potential landing points, and likely to be in the playoff hunt.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Youks is playing well, the Sox will probably want him. If he's not, he won't have any value. It's hard to imagine a contending Sox team trading him to another contender. I guess I really only see him being moved if the Sox are out of it. Next year opens up a lot of possibilities, with the boldest move being to let both Ortiz and Youkilis walk, although I'd be scared shitless of how they'd reallocate that cash.

[Plympton91]

This assumes Youk becomes an 850 or better OPS guy by year end, otherwise the point is moot:

Will Middlebrooks was drafted as a shortstop, is currently playing a great thirdbase, and has a cannon arm. The Red Sox have no one currently signed for next year or at Pawtucket who can play RF in 2013 (let's see Kalish get and stay healthy and then produce at a 360/460 clip before handing him the job). Why couldn't Middlebrooks play RF--like Bautista-- and backup 3B for a year or two until Youkilis and Ortiz drop off?

[David Laurila]

AL teams projected to have vacancies or be in need of upgrades include:

CLE - Hannahan's started hot, but he's a FA this winter

Hannahan is a stopgap for Lonnie Chisenhall, who is likely to be the Indians third baseman by mid-season and for years to come. Unless he unexpectedly flops, Cleveland is actually in pretty good shape here.

[JakeRae]

If Youks is playing well, the Sox will probably want him. If he's not, he won't have any value. It's hard to imagine a contending Sox team trading him to another contender. I guess I really only see him being moved if the Sox are out of it. Next year opens up a lot of possibilities, with the boldest move being to let both Ortiz and Youkilis walk, although I'd be scared shitless of how they'd reallocate that cash.

If Youk is playing well, Middlebrooks is playing well, and trading Youk brings back MLB talent at an area of need (or prospects that substitute for Boston prospects traded for said MLB talent) trading Youk could make the team better even if it involves downgrading 3B.

If Youk is hitting but his glove is killing us at 3B, it's possible that his value is greater to a team with a need at 1B and the Red Sox can improve via Middlebrooks' superior defense.

If Youk is now an average MLB player due to the hip injury and Middlebrooks looks like he's better than that, the Red Sox could improve by trading Youk and there will almost certainly be a contender willing to give up something of value for a veteran who can stabilize a position where they are playing a replacement level player.

Also, your contention that the Red Sox have no one signed at RF for 2013 is only technically true. Sweeney is under team control for another year. Kalish, Lin, Linares, or Brentz may also be ready by that point.

Edited by JakeRae, 27 April 2012 - 06:16 PM.

[mabrowndog]

This assumes Youk becomes an 850 or better OPS guy by year end, otherwise the point is moot:

Will Middlebrooks was drafted as a shortstop, is currently playing a great thirdbase, and has a cannon arm. The Red Sox have no one currently signed for next year or at Pawtucket who can play RF in 2013 (let's see Kalish get and stay healthy and then produce at a 360/460 clip before handing him the job). Why couldn't Middlebrooks play RF--like Bautista-- and backup 3B for a year or two until Youkilis and Ortiz drop off?

That's actually a really interesting idea. My gut response is asking someone who's never played the OF as a pro to patrol the most challenging and expansive RF in the majors might be just a tad risky.

[mabrowndog]

Hannahan is a stopgap for Lonnie Chisenhall, who is likely to be the Indians third baseman by mid-season and for years to come. Unless he unexpectedly flops, Cleveland is actually in pretty good shape here.

Thanks, David. There are probably a couple of other prospects-in-waiting I forgot about.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Youk is playing well, Middlebrooks is playing well, and trading Youk brings back MLB talent at an area of need (or prospects that substitute for Boston prospects traded for said MLB talent) trading Youk could make the team better even if it involves downgrading 3B.

Theoretically yeah, it would be a pretty bold move for a contender to trade a productive player in order to make room for a rookie.I just think it would be really tough to find a match; a contender (one in the NL, most likely) that needs Youkilis and has whatever the Sox need (pitching). Just seems unlikely.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Theoretically yeah, it would be a pretty bold move for a contender to trade a productive player in order to make room for a rookie.I just think it would be really tough to find a match; a contender (one in the NL, most likely) that needs Youkilis and has whatever the Sox need (pitching). Just seems unlikely.

Well, that's true, as 1-for-1 swaps go. But the Red Sox have made some pretty bold 3-way trades recently, to ship out productive players at the deadline while involved in a payoff run.

Outfield quite possibly may look worse than pitching come July. If he serves no other role this season, Middlebrooks still gives the Sox tremendous leverage to move Youk if needed to shore up an area of need.

[Plympton91]

Also, your contention that the Red Sox have no one signed at RF for 2013 is only technically true. Sweeney is under team control for another year. Kalish, Lin, Linares, or Brentz may also be ready by that point.

Your unbridled enthusiasm for injured or underperforming minor leaguers is so cute.

Kalish hasn't been heard from in a year and two surgeries.

Lin can't post a 600 OPS in AAA

Linares is so far down the depth chart the Red Sox demoted him this spring.

Brentz hasn't even shown he's ready to be in AA, let alone higher.

[JakeRae]

Your unbridled enthusiasm for injured or underperforming minor leaguers is so cute.

Kalish hasn't been heard from in a year and two surgeries.

Lin can't post a 600 OPS in AAA

Linares is so far down the depth chart the Red Sox demoted him this spring.

Brentz hasn't even shown he's ready to be in AA, let alone higher.

Yes, my comment that one of them might be ready in a year is certainly demonstrative of "unbridled enthusiasm". The first player mentioned in regard to the RF situation for next year was by far the most important one in that post. To reiterate, Sweeney is under team control for another year.

[Savin Hillbilly]

If Youk is playing well, Middlebrooks is playing well, and trading Youk brings back MLB talent at an area of need (or prospects that substitute for Boston prospects traded for said MLB talent) trading Youk could make the team better even if it involves downgrading 3B.

It certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a contending Sox team to trade a veteran linchpin and fan favorite--even though he's having a pretty good year--because he's increasingly brittle, expensive, a bit of a clubhouse problem, and possibly gone soon anyway. At least I seem to remember something like that happening about, oh, eight years ago.

[Eric Van]

Two points:

-- It will be much easier to pull the trigger on a deadline Youk deal if WMB has already demonstrated that he can play in MLB at a comparable level. And he'll get a chance to demonstrate that if either Youk, Gonzalez, or Papi hits the DL. It will be a much bolder move to trade Youk to make room for a guy who has yet to make his MLB debut; it's actually hard to see that happening.

The upshot of this is that the club can be very generous about disabling Youk. If he has a nagging injury or a muscle pull that is expected to keep him out for a week, they are almost certainly better off with two weeks of WMB plus the chance for him to get his feet wet, than with a week of Punto and a week of Youk at 85%.

-- If the Sox pick up Youk's option and deal him, they'll want at least as much value back as two draft picks. But a club signing him can get him for just one pick. So there's almost no motivation for anyone to make a deal. There are, however, two scenarios where this could work:

a) Youk's $13M option has a ton of excess projected value (a draft pick's worth, essentially) for 2013. I think that's unlikely.

b) He has a really good year, and some club wants him for a year as a stopgap before a prospect is ready. They can gamble that they get two picks for him the following winter, making the acquisition cost close to zero, or even negative if they get more value from him than $13M worth. If he only nets one draft pick, it's still a reasonable deal.

In any case, the decision to pick up the option and trade him is an incredibly easy one, because you only do that if you have the trade already made.

[Jed Zeppelin]

It certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a contending Sox team to trade a veteran linchpin and fan favorite--even though he's having a pretty good year--because he's increasingly brittle, expensive, a bit of a clubhouse problem, and possibly gone soon anyway. At least I seem to remember something like that happening about, oh, eight years ago.

Why go back that far?

[YTF]

If Youk is to leave I would hope that Cincinnatti might be an interested trade partner and willing to include Aroldis Chapman in whatever deal could be worked out. I know he's valuable to the Reds right now as a tough set up man and perhaps insurance policy if Sean Marshall fails as closer. Perhaps due to injury he might finally get his chance in the rotation, but depending on the needs of both teams come July, I wouldn't mind seeing Chapman come to Boston.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I agree with Eric, I don't see the Sox trading Youks A. if Youks starts getting hot and the team is contending and B. until WMB gets some AB's at this level. I remember Rizzo absolutely ripping it up in AAA last season for the Padres then getting called up and struggling. It does happen on occasion that a hot prospect struggles in the MLB on thier first call up.. No matter how WMB hits the ball at Pawtucket, that's always a risk. He simply may have a tough time transitioning to the majors. I happen to think he'd be fine, but it is a risk. If the Sox were set on having WMB up this season, then the best time to trade Youks might be between now and the All-star break and I don't think they'd be getting much value. You can't wait till the deadline, because the Sox may be in the midst of a close pennant race and too many possible suitors may be too far out of contention to want an aging expensive player. I know that Theo traded Nomar at the deadline, but he traded him for proven major league players, he didn't replace his SS with a rookie.

If Youks can stay healthy I think he has some good AB's or even seasons left in him, if he can't stay healthy then you simply call up WMB for Youks DL stints, let WMB get some seasoning and let Youks walk at seasons end.

The sox aren't letting Papi go anywhere as long as he's hitting. They have talked to him about working in the Org. when his playing career is over, they have partnered with him in a couple new charity ventures and he's entrenched in the community and the clubhouse. As long as he's still offering a lot on the field and his contract demands remain in the current stratosphere he's staying, at least for the last two years of his career. He's retiring anyway in two years so I don't see him wanting to go anywhere and I don't see the sox forcing him to.

I think the writing is on the wall and Youks is the odd man out....indeed it is his swan song

Edited by Carl Everetts Therapist, 29 April 2012 - 04:39 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

You can't wait till the deadline, because the Sox may be in the midst of a close pennant race and too many possible suitors may be too far out of contention to want an aging expensive player.

Nobody's going to give up talent for an aging expensive player unless they're sure they *are* in contention. That's why deals are more likely to happen the closer you get to the deadline.

[MikeM]

It certainly wouldn't be unprecedented for a contending Sox team to trade a veteran linchpin and fan favorite--even though he's having a pretty good year--because he's increasingly brittle, expensive, a bit of a clubhouse problem, and possibly gone soon anyway. At least I seem to remember something like that happening about, oh, eight years ago.

Nomar is actually a pretty solid comp there, as barring that absolutely perfect storm of surrounding circumstances coming together at the trade deadline, i just can't envision a realistic scenario playing out where we see Youk getting traded AND a healthy top prospect/non-rental type return coming back in the process. The most probable obstacle being, and similar to what we recently saw in Scutaro, that he simply makes too much money. Which in turn just serves to eat up the lion's share of any projected value, at least once the potential warts and that other party's willingness to pick up the remaining tab is factored into that equation.

That said, at the core here i still have a hard time seeing Ben getting too caught up in the SSS, and/while rushing WMB out of at least 1 full season of AAA at-bats. Especially given my belief that Ben may already have him all but cemented in as the "for better or for worse" guy who will be breaking next spring's camp as this team's starting 3B (if for no other reason then the financial flexibility it's going to help create next winter within a roster that's already projecting to push over $130m, with a conservative estimate there at that)

[BosRedSox5]

I like Youk as much as the next guy. In fact, he might be my favorite player. Still, with Middlebrooks killing it in AAA and with teams in need of 1B help I think there is definitely a market. What might the Phillies give up? They're big market with a hole at 1B with Howars out. I'd definitely like to see a move there

[Savin Hillbilly]

That said, at the core here i still have a hard time seeing Ben getting too caught up in the SSS, and/while rushing WMB out of at least 1 full season of AAA at-bats. Especially given my belief that Ben may already have him all but cemented in as the "for better or for worse" guy who will be breaking next spring's camp as this team's starting 3B (if for no other reason then the financial flexibility it's going to help create next winter within a roster that's already projecting to push over $130m, with a conservative estimate there at that)

This makes a lot of sense, and you're probably right. Unless Youk just can't get out of first gear at all--in which case trading him will be difficult anyway--Middlebrooks' success in AAA will probably serve more to cement his role as heir apparent in 2013 than to force a move in 2012.

[Eric Van]

Some potentially relevant history, which I'm researching as I type for my own amusement ...

In 1982 Carney Lansford was coming off a .336 / .389 / .439 season but went into a prolonged slump in late April and was at .288 / .344 / .387 in 270 PA when he got hurt on June 23. His backup, rookie 3B/1B Wade Boggs, had started a handful of games in April when Lansford was hurt but had just 36 PA at .258 / .343 / .419. That's 36 PA in 67 games for a rookie coming off a .335 / .437 / .460 season in AAA.

The other interesting thing that happened on June 23rd was that 1B Dave Stapleton went 2 for 4 to lift his line to .276 / .305 / .406, which was his season high-water mark for OPS. That's right, you had a 1B with an OPS below 700 and a backup coming off a near-900 AAA season, but Ralph Houk (who was otherwise a very good manager here) wouldn't give the rookie any kind of chance. Imagine if SoSH existed then! (This was also the year that Roger LaFrancois was on the roster the entire season as the 3rd catcher and caught just 12 innings at the end of 7 blowouts, going 2-5, 2B -- then got the start in game 162 and went 2-5.)

Lansford was out for a month, and Boggs hit .391 / .437 / .424 in 104 PA as his replacement, lifting his season line to .358 / .413 / .423. At that point Boggs essentially had Stapleton's job, except for a stretch in August where Boggs apparently was nursing a minor injury and Stapleton got hot while he was out.

Lansford hit .314 / .373 / .502 after coming back from the injury to finish at .301 / .359 / .444, but Boggs essentially kept pace by hitting .344 / .402 / .451 to finish at .349 / .406 / .441.

That winter the Sox did the smart thing and traded Lansford (an overrated take-one-step-and-dive fielder) to make room for Boggs at 3B. Unfortunately, they traded him for Tony Armas, who had hit .259 / .294 / .472 the last three years while playing an outstanding RF; they moved him to CF where he proved to be below average. Meanwhile the homegrown Reid Nichols was hitting .293 / .347 / .449 in 572 PA in 1982-3 while playing significantly better CF defense, at ages 23 and 24, but not only never got a chance to play regularly, was simply buried on the bench in '84. And rather unimaginably, they returned Dave Stapleton to 1B, where he followed his .264 / .305 / .398 line with .247 / .297 / .363. (B-ref has his WAR as 0.3 in 1982 and -1.7 in 1983. Those of you who are young enough to only know Lou Gorman as GM, let alone Duquette, have no idea what it was like to have Haywood Sullivan run this team. Really.)

In any case, there's an example of an injury allowing the kid to play, and the kid demonstrating that he was just plain better than the veteran. I think we all agree that that's the one scenario where Youk gets traded: Youk is good, but it's clear that WMB is already better.

Edited by Eric Van, 29 April 2012 - 11:38 PM.

[JimBoSox9]

If this Sox team is in contention and he's hitting around .800 OPS, trading Youks at the deadline and handing the 3B keys to WMB is a risk I simply don't see this organization taking. Even really good hitters can take some time getting used to MLB pitching (Pedroia, etc). I don't see WMB being so overwhelmingly awesome all year in AAA that he's a near-lock to produce down the stretch. Also, while I do not think the Sox make moves with fan satisfaction as a motivator, the backlash (especially now) of having that move not work out could definitely make them a little more risk-adverse.

If Youks isn't hitting well, trade him for a contender that's willing to take a chance, although the return will be likely unsatisfactory. If the team isn't in contention, then trade him.

In the offseason, offer him arb if he's unlikely to accept it, explore picking up his option and trading him (which will be fruitless), or just say adios.

[xjack]

Some potentially relevant history, which I'm researching as I type for my own amusement ...

In 1982 Carney Lansford was coming off a .336 / .389 / .439 season but went into a prolonged slump in late April and was at .288 / .344 / .387 in 270 PA when he got hurt on June 23. His backup, rookie 3B/1B Wade Boggs, had started a handful of games in April when Lansford was hurt but had just 36 PA at .258 / .343 / .419. That's 36 PA in 67 games for a rookie coming off a .335 / .437 / .460 season in AAA.

The other interesting thing that happened on June 23rd was that 1B Dave Stapleton went 2 for 4 to lift his line to .276 / .305 / .406, which was his season high-water mark for OPS. That's right, you had a 1B with an OPS below 700 and a backup coming off a near-900 AAA season, but Ralph Houk (who was otherwise a very good manager here) wouldn't give the rookie any kind of chance. Imagine if SoSH existed then! (This was also the year that Roger LaFrancois was on the roster the entire season as the 3rd catcher and caught just 12 innings at the end of 7 blowouts, going 2-5, 2B -- then got the start in game 162 and went 2-5.)

Lansford was out for a month, and Boggs hit .391 / .437 / .424 in 104 PA as his replacement, lifting his season line to .358 / .413 / .423. At that point Boggs essentially had Stapleton's job, except for a stretch in August where Boggs apparently was nursing a minor injury and Stapleton got hot while he was out.

Lansford hit .314 / .373 / .502 after coming back from the injury to finish at .301 / .359 / .444, but Boggs essentially kept pace by hitting .344 / .402 / .451 to finish at .349 / .406 / .441.

That winter the Sox did the smart thing and traded Lansford (an overrated take-one-step-and-dive fielder) to make room for Boggs at 3B. Unfortunately, they traded him for Tony Armas, who had hit .259 / .294 / .472 the last three years while playing an outstanding RF; they moved him to CF where he proved to be below average. Meanwhile the homegrown Reid Nichols was hitting .293 / .347 / .449 in 572 PA in 1982-3 while playing significantly better CF defense, at ages 23 and 24, but not only never got a chance to play regularly, was simply buried on the bench in '84. And rather unimaginably, they returned Dave Stapleton to 1B, where he followed his .264 / .305 / .398 line with .247 / .297 / .363. (B-ref has his WAR as 0.3 in 1982 and -1.7 in 1983. Those of you who are young enough to only know Lou Gorman as GM, let alone Duquette, have no idea what it was like to have Haywood Sullivan run this team. Really.)

In any case, there's an example of an injury allowing the kid to play, and the kid demonstrating that he was just plain better than the veteran. I think we all agree that that's the one scenario where Youk gets traded: Youk is good, but it's clear that WMB is already better.

This is exactly as I remember it, with the exception of Reid Nichols being a good player. Everyone compared him to Fred Lynn when he came up -- I think he had a huge game right when he came up, a la Rey Quinones -- but the league figured him out pretty quicky.

[Seels]

Really, trading Youks makes no sense. He has very little value at this point. If they wanted to trade him they should have done so prior to last year.

[xjack]

Really, trading Youks makes no sense. He has very little value at this point. If they wanted to trade him they should have done so prior to last year.

Trading him only makes sense now because it looks like WMB is ready. A year and a half ago, there was no replacement.

[YTF]

Seels, I agree with the first part of your statement pertaining to the here and now. It may be a different story come July. Totally disagree with the last part of your statement. With questions about right field, the pitching staff, resigning Ortiz and Crawford's ability to rebound in 2012 it made no sense (at least to me) to trade Youkilis and create another question mark at 3rd base.

Edited by YTF, 01 May 2012 - 05:20 PM.

[Seels]

Trading him only makes sense now because it looks like WMB is ready. A year and a half ago, there was no replacement.

A year and a half ago Kevin Youkilis was a first baseman, and we had Jed Lowrie and Adrian Beltre.

[aron7awol]

I think people are placing too much weight on WMB's 96 PA in 2012.

WMB Career
AA: 397 PA, .302/.345/.520 (MLE .254/.282/.416 = .698 OPS)
AAA: 156 PA, .276/.321/.538 (MLE .237/.276/.443 = .719 OPS)
MLEs from http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com

Yes, he obviously has displayed very good power, but do people really think he's a good bet to outperform a relatively healthy Youkilis? What would you expect his OBP to be in the bigs?

He needs to stay hot in AAA for a while longer before I'm ready to declare him ready.

[JakeRae]

I think people are placing too much weight on WMB's 96 PA in 2012.

WMB Career
AA: 397 PA, .302/.345/.520 (MLE .254/.282/.416 = .698 OPS)
AAA: 156 PA, .276/.321/.538 (MLE .237/.276/.443 = .719 OPS)
MLEs from http://mlsplits.drivelinebaseball.com

Yes, he obviously has displayed very good power, but do people really think he's a good bet to outperform a relatively healthy Youkilis? What would you expect his OBP to be in the bigs?

He needs to stay hot in AAA for a while longer before I'm ready to declare him ready.

WMB 2010 AAA MLE (using the translator you provided: .143/.177/.228
WMB 2011 MLE (using the translator you provided): .308/.348/.599

I get why you lumped his entire AAA line together, but it's also important to look at the two seasons discretely. Prospects improve, sometimes significantly, over offseasons. In Middlebrooks case, while his walk rate hasn't shifted dramatically, he has added power and cut down on strikeouts so far this year and the scouting backs up that these improvements are both real. Yes, he is hot right now and we shouldn't expect him to produce at the level of his 2011 MLE. But, we also need to recognize that he is a better player this year than he was last year.

I think a line of .280/.320/.480 is very achievable for Middlebrooks in MLB this year. PECOTA had him at .238/.280/.383 entering the season. I would love to see what it or ZIPS thinks at this point in the season after his hot start, but we definitely have to push those numbers up pretty significantly. (Remember, PECOTA's last piece of data was the horrible 2011 AAA performance.)

[aron7awol]

WMB 2010 AAA MLE (using the translator you provided: .143/.177/.228
WMB 2011 MLE (using the translator you provided): .308/.348/.599

I get why you lumped his entire AAA line together, but it's also important to look at the two seasons discretely. Prospects improve, sometimes significantly, over offseasons. In Middlebrooks case, while his walk rate hasn't shifted dramatically, he has added power and cut down on strikeouts so far this year and the scouting backs up that these improvements are both real. Yes, he is hot right now and we shouldn't expect him to produce at the level of his 2011 MLE. But, we also need to recognize that he is a better player this year than he was last year.

I think a line of .280/.320/.480 is very achievable for Middlebrooks in MLB this year. PECOTA had him at .238/.280/.383 entering the season. I would love to see what it or ZIPS thinks at this point in the season after his hot start, but we definitely have to push those numbers up pretty significantly. (Remember, PECOTA's last piece of data was the horrible 2011 AAA performance.)

I would say he's probably a slightly better player this year, but not anywhere near as much as looking at his 2010 and 2011 AAA numbers separately would suggest. What would you project WMB at if he were called up today and made the starting 3B? I hope you would project him much closer to the .237/.276/.443 suggested by his combined AAA MLE than the .308/.348/.599 suggested by his 2011 AAA MLE. We are looking at samples of 60 and 96 PA, after all.

Edit: Just realized you put your projection in your post.

Edited by aron7awol, 01 May 2012 - 07:02 PM.

[xjack]

A year and a half ago Kevin Youkilis was a first baseman, and we had Jed Lowrie and Adrian Beltre.

He said we should have traded him prior to last season. Beltre was already a free agent. Lowrie -- I can't remember which of his umpteen injuries he was recovering from at the time.

[twothousandone]

He said we should have traded him prior to last season. Beltre was already a free agent. Lowrie -- I can't remember which of his umpteen injuries he was recovering from at the time.

but, in hindsight, re-signing Beltre, along with the Gonzalez trade (thus not answering the Adrian vs. Adrian question) might have been better. That would have meant $90 million, or so, through 2016. At an AAV of $15 million, it would have meant agreeing to pay up last year and this, and next versus what might have been expected of Youkilis. AND agreeing to pay a 35 + Year old $17 million/year for three years. That effectively blocks WMB.

Even in hindsight, why add both Adrian's and trade Youkilis? Who comes back that helps? Let's say Milwaukee wanted him for 3B, then 1B after Fielder left. You can't take Brett Lawrie (Brewers get Youkilis instead of Marcum) and put him at 3B or 2B. If he goes to LF, a whole nother problem is averted, but can he play OF? Could they have traded in the division for Marcum? Could Youkilis be a part of a deal for Upton, who they'd have to sign long-term after signing Adrian and Adrian?

Even in hindsight, I am having trouble seeing any rationale, prior to the 2011 season, for trading Youkilis. He was notably underpaid in 2010. Who trades a bargain? If he continues to struggle, this is one of those things a team has to live with. There was no reasonable way around it, without a crystal ball.

[trekfan55]

Maureen Mullen

Cherington said Lars is getting sent down, no news on Cook till tomorrow. #RedSoxTalk

I would guess Cook is coming up and not WMB.

[Eric Van]

This is exactly as I remember it, with the exception of Reid Nichols being a good player. Everyone compared him to Fred Lynn when he came up -- I think he had a huge game right when he came up, a la Rey Quinones -- but the league figured him out pretty quicky.

Nichols first came up in 1980, as a September call-up. He had one 3-hit game on October 1st, when he was hitting .125, so I don't think that the big-splash memory looks correct.

In 1983, he hit .285 / .352 / .438 (111 wRC+) in MLB PA # 360 to 666. All AL CF that year hit .262 / .323 / .396. That's not figuring him out, and it's not quick. That's a really good 24-year-old player. Whose job they then took away.

The next year he played regularly from April 17 to May 15 when they finally gave up on Stapleton, moved Easler from DH to 1B and Armas from CF to DH. He hit .235 / .309 / .306 in 94 PA. He may have been playing hurt, because he was out from May 19 to June 8. While he was on the DL they traded for Buckner to play 1B, and he never got another chance at any kind of regular play.

Back on topic: it's only 5 games but of course the scenario where they are confident that WMB is very unlikely to be a significant downgrade becomes more and more credible.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Back on topic: it's only 5 games but of course the scenario where they are confident that WMB is very unlikely to be a significant downgrade becomes more and more credible.

Josh Reddick's first 16 games, 2011: 452/490/714 (1204 OPS)
His final 72 games, 2011: 248/294/407 (701 OPS)

or how about this one:

Anthony Rizzo's first 5 games, 2011: 231/500/692 (1192 OPS)
His final 44 games, 2011: 130/248/191 (439 OPS)

You think the only reason you can't do small sample analyses is because the effect isn't strong enough to detect a significant difference. I'm sure you could get some good confidence intervals on WMB's performance so far. In fact, you can't do small sample sizes in baseball because the effect over longer time frames is not random - teams will adjust.

[Eric Van]

Josh Reddick's first 16 games, 2011: 452/490/714 (1204 OPS)
His final 72 games, 2011: 248/294/407 (701 OPS)

or how about this one:

Anthony Rizzo's first 5 games, 2011: 231/500/692 (1192 OPS)
His final 44 games, 2011: 130/248/191 (439 OPS)

You think the only reason you can't do small sample analyses is because the effect isn't strong enough to detect a significant difference. I'm sure you could get some good confidence intervals on WMB's performance so far. In fact, you can't do small sample sizes in baseball because the effect over longer time frames is not random - teams will adjust.

I certainly didn't mean to overstate the predictive force of what's happened so far. Just meant that one of the possibilities -- the instant Pedroia-like struggle -- has been taken off the table, so the odds of the trade scenario have gone up. "More and more" was probably two words too many! (One for each of tonight's bombs.)

[Soxfan in Fla]

I will say a 2 HR performance in which he wraps around one pole and tags the other is impressive. For giggles he launched a double to straightaway CF. Like his use of the entire field.

[E5 Yaz]

FWIW, Edes and Crasnick are having a Twitter discussion today about a Youk-Dempster possibility with the Cubs. Just their suppositions at this point.

This follows Edes' piece last night (linked) about it being time to trade Youk.

In conversations with four veteran major league talent evaluators Tuesday, all were high on Middlebrooks ("I think he can be a helluva player," said one) and all said they believed there would be a strong market for Youkilis. "With that extra wild-card,"' one said, "there will be a lot more places to move him." Only one thought that the Sox should send Middlebrooks back to the minors, at least long enough for Youkilis to prove to potential trading partners that he is healthy.

http://espn.go.com/b...-kevin-youkilis

[fineyoungarm]

Edes is likely right. They have to feature Youk (and pray to God that he performs) or his trade value is not much, considering the caliber of player he was until recently (and still may be in the short term).

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Edes is likely right. They have to feature Youk (and pray to God that he performs) or his trade value is not much, considering the caliber of player he was until recently (and still may be in the short term).

I think this is a bit harsh. He has yet to play poorly for any extended period while healthy. The question isn't whether he's a helluva ballplayer. It's whether he can stay healthy enough for that talent to be worth a significant return. He's 33, not 36. There's typically a few good years left in the tank for most guys at that age. We're not getting a top prospect for him, but saying his value is "not much" is selling him short, IMO.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If the Cubs were going to trade Dempster, wouldn't they want prospects? just don't see what Youks does for them.

[someoneanywhere]

If the Cubs were going to trade Dempster, wouldn't they want prospects? just don't see what Youks does for them.

Nor Dempster us. He's 35. If you're going to move Youks, you do it for young pitching.

[OttoC]

Youkilis has already turned 33; has a $12M contract this year and $13M next year (albeit with a team buy-out of $1M); and has missed 26 games in 2009, 60 in 2010, 42 in 2011, and 11 of the team's 29 games this year. Just how much trade value does he have?