31 replies to this topic

[TheoShmeo]

So it's very early and any discussion of Scutaro and Aviles screams out for the classic "small sample size!!!" response.

At the same time, many Sox fans looked at the Scutaro trade and were utterly befuddled. It seemed like a pure salary dump and probably it was. We all waited to see what they would do with the freed up cash and they seemed to have done nothing other than tucked it away for a Marlon Byrd or some such thing. And some of us wondered if Scutaro was the "snitch" and had to be moved for his own safety and the good of the clubhouse.

It also seemed like the Sox had nothing in reserve for SS other than a kid who wasn't ready at the plate and a journeyman type who didn't hit well enough to justify his below average defensive skills.

A few weeks into the season and, I think, Mike Aviles looks better than at least some of us expected in the field. He seems to be making most of the plays at SS. He's clearly no Ozzie Smith (or Alex Gonzalez, Jose Iglesias or many other players, for that matter) with the glove, but he turns the DP OK and gets to most balls you expect a SS to get to, at least according to my eyes.

And at the plate his numbers have been terrific and compare quite favorably to Scutaro's, thus far.

Scutaro: 58 at bats; .224 batting average; 0 HRs; 1 RBI; .297 OBP; .276 SLG; .573 OPS
Aviles: 60 at bats; .333 batting average; 3 HRs; 10 RBI; .365 OBP; .567 SLG; .932 OPS

He has also, as many have observed, somewhat blunted the loss of Ellsbury in the lead off spot.

Whether this will continue is anyone's guess. Sixty at bats does not a season, or even a month of a season, make. But after last night's performance, I found myself wondering how Aviles compared to Scutaro at this point, and I thought others might be interested as well.

[rembrat]

Cash saved on Scutaro went to signing Cody Ross, another move that looks real good so far. SSS of course.

[PrometheusWakefield]

The trade we really should be revisiting is Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz for Aviles last year. Its amazing that a player with as productive a history as Aviles would be available on the scrap heap from Kansas City of all places. Epstein's gotten a lot of well deserved shit this season but that was vintage Theo: identify a guy who is more talented than his organization appreciates and pick him up for crumbs.

[In my lifetime]

Cash saved on Scutaro went to signing Cody Ross, another move that looks real good so far. SSS of course.

or you could say the cash went to Padilla, not so good. The point being is that Scutaro salary dump was not the prerequisite to the Ross signing. Instead the move was the RS figuring that Aviles/Punto/Iglesias offered them just as much/more than keeping Scutaro at his cost.

Edited by In my lifetime, 25 April 2012 - 12:45 PM.

[trekfan55]

The trade we really should be revisiting is Yamaico Navarro and Kendal Volz for Aviles last year. Its amazing that a player with as productive a history as Aviles would be available on the scrap heap from Kansas City of all places. Epstein's gotten a lot of well deserved shit this season but that was vintage Theo: identify a guy who is more talented than his organization appreciates and pick him up for crumbs.

Props on both trades.

Besides the cost cutting factor, Scutaro is simply not cutting it, while Aviles, in the SSS he has, has been hitting very well. We all saw what Scutaro leading off looked like and it wasn't good.

Edited by trekfan55, 25 April 2012 - 12:45 PM.

[Sprowl]

Props on both trades.

Besides the cost cutting factor, Scutaro is simply not cutting it, while Aviles, in the SSS he has, has been hitting very well. We all saw what Scutaro leading off looked like and it wasn't good.

Why do you say that? Scutaro was just average as a shortstop and his throwing arm had deteriorated with his rotator cuff troubles in 2010, but as a leadoff hitter, he was exceptionally patient, with good strike zone judgment and decent doubles power. He worked pitchers very well within the team framework (4.04 and 3.92 P/PA in his two seasons in Boston). Scutaro may have had several deficiencies, but being a bad leadoff hitter was not one of them.

[rembrat]

or you could say the cash went to Padilla, not so good. The point being is that Scutaro salary dump was not the prerequisite to the Ross signing. Instead the move was the RS figuring that Aviles/Punto/Iglesias offered them just as much/more than keeping Scutaro at his cost.

Um, the Ross signing came days after they got rid of Scutaro's money.

I'd really hold off giving kudos just yet on Aviles because it hasn't even been a month and all his BABIP - HR/FB numbers are through the roof and unsustainable. Especially his numbers vs RHP unless he has recaptured some of 08' magic.

[trekfan55]

Why do you say that? Scutaro was just average as a shortstop and his throwing arm had deteriorated with his rotator cuff troubles in 2010, but as a leadoff hitter, he was exceptionally patient, with good strike zone judgment and decent doubles power. He worked pitchers very well within the team framework (4.04 and 3.92 P/PA in his two seasons in Boston). Scutaro may have had several deficiencies, but being a bad leadoff hitter was not one of them.

I do not have the numbers handy, but from my memory he was not the best choice on the team. Sorry if the numbers don't bear it out. But the rest does stand, he cannot play SS properly (he is at 2B in Colorado but then again they have Tulo at SS) and he is definitely not hitting at all.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Scutaro was a great #9 hitter for the Sox, not great at the leadoff slot. His OBP in the leadoff slot was ~330, way lower than he hit everywhere else (~365).

[Savin Hillbilly]

Scutaro was a great #9 hitter for the Sox, not great at the leadoff slot. His OBP in the leadoff slot was ~330, way lower than he hit everywhere else (~365).

However, this split is tricky to disentangle from the fact that he did nearly all of his leadoff hitting for the Sox in 2010, when he was a worse hitter in general than in 2011. He actually had a slightly better OBP batting 1st than 9th in 2010 (.336/.333). He hit better in 2011, and he hit very little from the leadoff spot in 2011. But I think substituting "because" for "and" in that last sentence is a stretch.

[MikeM]

In the albatross shadow of the Crawford/Lackey deals, and depending where one sits on the JD Drew fence, score Ben the assist in helping to provide Theo's tenure here with at least one indisputable "hit" in multi-year free agency.


(well, not counting Oki as he was an international guy).

[Pumpsie]

I think it's pretty clear that, so far, the decision to trade Scutaro and replace him with Aviles is a resounding success. Likewise, Theo's trade FOR Aviles in the first place is a major positive. I also think that there's no reason not to expect an .800+ OPS season from Aviles this year, based on his previous success during his career when healthy and starting, and his success both in ST and the first 16 games of this season. Pitchers will start pitching him differently if he continues to have this kind of success so adjustments will have to be made but he looks like a big league hitter, for sure. Scutaro, OTOH, is surely in the twilight of his career. Kudos to both Theo and Ben for these decisions.

[941827]

It's really hard to believe that the best the Sox could get for a fairly-priced, competent SS was Clay Mortensen. I don't think there's a way to judge this, but receiving a useful reliever for Scutaro instead of what they got may have had a dramatic impact on the fortunes of the team to date. For example, the Reds traded for Wilson Valdez around the same time the Sox dealt Scutaro. I have to wonder if the Sox could have gotten a useful reliever from the Reds for Scutaro.

[Rudy Pemberton]

You're forgetting that Scutaro made more than $6M a year. It's pretty challenging to find teams willing to take on guys like that and give up value in the offseason, esp. when somewhat comparable players are available as free agents.

I mean, is there a reason to think the Sox got less for Scutaro than they could have?

How many teams were in the market for a $6M SS / 2B? Who is old and on a 1-year deal?

[maufman]

Was Ben good, or just lucky?

If he never wanted Scutaro back, and picked up his option just to avoid paying the $1.5mm buyout, that was a gutsy move -- and a shrewd one, based on the early returns. On the other hand, if Ben had every intention of making Scutaro the everyday SS until Papi unexpectedly accepted arbitration, then he was fortunate to find a taker for Scutaro late in the offseason, and the fact that Aviles has actually been better is just plain lucky.

Kudos to Theo for grabbing Aviles from KC and selling high on Yamaico Navarro. Dayton Moore is a good evaluator of young talent, so sending him a young player he wants takes some guts.

Edited by maufman, 25 April 2012 - 10:35 PM.

[941827]

How many teams were in the market for a $6M SS / 2B? Who is old and on a 1-year deal?

I didn't forget anything -- I said in my post that he was reasonably-priced, and I think $6mm is pretty reasonable for a player of Scutaro's caliber. I don't know the answer to your question, but I'm surprised the Sox couldn't get more talent than they did in exchange for Scutaro.

[Harry Hooper]

Wouldn't being on a 1-year deal make Scutaro more desirable, not less?

[MikeM]

Was Ben good, or just lucky?

If he never wanted Scutaro back, and picked up his option just to avoid paying the $1.5mm buyout, that was a gutsy move -- and a shrewd one, based on the early returns. On the other hand, if Ben had every intention of making Scutaro the everyday SS until Papi unexpectedly accepted arbitration, then he was fortunate to find a taker for Scutaro late in the offseason, and the fact that Aviles has actually been better is just plain lucky.

Kudos to Theo for grabbing Aviles from KC and selling high on Yamaico Navarro. Dayton Moore is a good evaluator of young talent, so sending him a young player he wants takes some guts.

I'm not so sure it's wasn't Ben's intention from the start to dump Scutaro and his salary, even in the event Ortiz had declined. Considering the rumor of a potential trade to Colorado popped up pretty much from the get go-of the offseason.

It was $10m of well spent money on those first 2 years, but you pay guys on what expect them to do going forward, not on what they've done. All in all, there's definitely been a league-wide downtrend in frivolous spending on non-elite free agents lately. Scutaro went into this winter turning 36, with an accumulating amount of nagging injuries over the last few seasons. I don't believe it's too much a stretch to assume there weren't any GM's lining up to take on the salary hit AND throw something of real value in on top of that.

[nvalvo]

I don't believe it's too much a stretch to assume there weren't any GM's lining up to take on the salary hit AND throw something of real value in on top of that.

S-A-B-E-A-N.

I don't know, for Santiago Casilla or something?

[Rudy Pemberton]

Wouldn't being on a 1-year deal make Scutaro more desirable, not less?

It makes him only desirable to contenders. How many contenders needed a SS and had $6M that time of year?

[Al Zarilla]

S-A-B-E-A-N.

I don't know, for Santiago Casilla or something?

Who is the Giants closer now with Wilson out. I would kill for Santiago Casilla coming out of the Red Sox pen.

[rembrat]

After his scorching and highly unsustainable start Mike Aviles is down to .265/.302/.447 on the year. His warts are completely showing as he is ‘hitting’ .227/.250/.361 vs. RHP but he isn’t a complete blackhole because he is killing LHP at a .371/.436/.686 clip.

When we talk about what could have been for the shortstop position it seems like we shouldn’t be focusing on the departure of Marco Scutaro but instead that of Jed Lowrie’s who is hitting .299/.382/.474 for the Astros.

A straight up platoon of Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles would be OPSing about 1.000 right now. Sure Lowrie isn’t going to keep this up but I think he can be very capable against RHP. But at least we have an awesome setup man in AAA.

EDIT: phrasing

Edited by rembrat, 12 May 2012 - 10:14 AM.

[NHbeau]

After his scorching and highly unsustainable start Mike Aviles is down to .265/.302/.447 on the year. His warts are completely showing as he is ‘hitting’ .227/.250/.361 vs. RHP but he isn’t a complete blackhole because he is killing LHP at a .371/.436/.686 clip.

When we talk about what could have been for the shortstop position it seems like we shouldn’t be focusing on the departure of Marco Scutaro but instead that of Jed Lowrie’s who is hitting .299/.382/.474 for the Astros.

A straight up platoon of Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles would be OPSing about 1.000 right now. Sure Lowrie isn’t going to keep this up but I think he can be very capable against RHP. But at least we have an awesome setup man in AAA.

EDIT: phrasing

Do you honestly believe Lowrie would be hitting .299 in the AL east? I for one don't. And how long till Lowrie hits the DL yet again?

[mfried]

After his scorching and highly unsustainable start Mike Aviles is down to .265/.302/.447 on the year. His warts are completely showing as he is ‘hitting’ .227/.250/.361 vs. RHP but he isn’t a complete blackhole because he is killing LHP at a .371/.436/.686 clip.

When we talk about what could have been for the shortstop position it seems like we shouldn’t be focusing on the departure of Marco Scutaro but instead that of Jed Lowrie’s who is hitting .299/.382/.474 for the Astros.

A straight up platoon of Jed Lowrie and Mike Aviles would be OPSing about 1.000 right now. Sure Lowrie isn’t going to keep this up but I think he can be very capable against RHP. But at least we have an awesome setup man in AAA.

EDIT: phrasing

Two points-in his years with the Sox Jed was much better as a RH-hitter. His wrist problems resulted (when batting left-handed) in many groundouts to 2nd base. The overlooked acquisition of Mortensen may turn out to be the best part of the Scutaro trade.

Edited by mfried, 12 May 2012 - 10:34 AM.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

One of the problems is that Punto is absolutely worthless and it may be time to cut bait on that little douche. When Scutaro was traded the thought was that Aviles could start, but Punto would get 25% of the AB's vs. RH hitters. That semi-platoon would take some pressure off Aviles and bring a measure of usefulness to Punto through better defense and OBP.

But Punto has gone and sucked worse than anyone could have imagined and the worst part is that he is not very good on defense. He needs to be sent to the Siberian baseball league and call up Ciriaco to take his place.

[Max Power]

Do you honestly believe Lowrie would be hitting .299 in the AL east? I for one don't. And how long till Lowrie hits the DL yet again?

He started the season on the DL. The team may have looked better to start with Aviles and Lowrie on the team rather than Aviles and Scutaro, but we may not have seen Middlebrooks when Youkilis went down. With Lowrie shifting over to third and Aviles taking short, the team probably would have gone with a defense-first utility guy. That said, Punto needs to go. He can't hit, can't play defense, and can't run the bases properly. I also hate his face and don't want to see it on my TV again.

[Plympton91]

It is nothing but cherry picking to focus on either Aviles' torrid start or his struggles recently. All baseball players are somewhat streaky, and Aviles is no exception. He's not great against righties, but for his career he's passable against them as long as his defense at SS is solid. Same goes for Punto, it's ridiculous to look at his performance to date as predictive. They'll both, if given a reasonable number of at bats and health, end up near their long-run averages.

And, as others have said, while a healthy Lowrie would probably outproduce Aviles against righties, he, like Aviles has done most of his damage against lefties.

[kazuneko]

You know you had a bad offseason when the team's best move was a salary dump of a potentially useful player.
Meanwhile, Cherington's other moves have been unmitigated disasters. Lowrie is currently the second best hitting SS in the NL, while Reddick (playing CF since the injury to Cespedes) is knocking the cover off the ball (with an OPS just below .900). In return for the former the Sox got a reliever whose already made history by being the first pitcher ever to allow at least six earned runs -including three homers- without recording a single out. In return to for the latter they got a closer known as an injury risk who immediately got injured.
I know it can only get better, but Cherington's GM career really couldn't have started off worse...

Edited by kazuneko, 13 May 2012 - 02:45 PM.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You know you had a bad offseason when the team's best move was a salary dump of a potentially useful player.
Meanwhile, Cherington's other moves have been unmitigated disasters. Lowrie is currently the second best hitting SS in the NL, while Reddick (playing CF since the injury to Cespedes) is knocking the cover off the ball (with an OPS just below .900). In return for the former the Sox got a reliever whose already made history by being the first pitcher ever to allow at least six earned runs -including three homers- without recording a single out. In return to for the latter they got a closer known as an injury risk who immediately got injured.
I know it can only get better, but Cherington's GM career really couldn't have started off worse...

For Reddick, they also got an outfielder who has put up an .853 OPS with a .372 OBP in 29 games so far in both RF and CF. It's a near wash between the two, at least so far. That Bailey hasn't contributing anything yet doesn't make that trade a failure.

[kazuneko]

For Reddick, they also got an outfielder who has put up an .853 OPS with a .372 OBP in 29 games so far in both RF and CF. It's a near wash between the two, at least so far. That Bailey hasn't contributing anything yet doesn't make that trade a failure.

You're right, Sweeney shouldn't be left out of any discussion about that trade, but lets remember that this is Sweeney's fifth season in the majors. His upside potential - and value - is almost certainly less than Reddick's. Of course neither player is likely to maintain their current level of production going forward anyway.
No doubt its too early in the season for any serious analysis of those trades, but your right, even at this early stage Sweeney's performance should at the very least protect that trade from being labeled a disaster.
EDIT:
To be perfectly honest, I'm mostly feeling pissy about the Lowrie deal. I hated that trade, and that was long before Melancon crapped out as Bard's replacement at stopper...

Edited by kazuneko, 13 May 2012 - 04:36 PM.

[JakeRae]

You're right, Sweeney shouldn't be left out of any discussion about that trade, but lets remember that this is Sweeney's fifth season in the majors. His upside potential - and value - is almost certainly less than Reddick's. Of course neither player is likely to maintain their current level of production going forward anyway.
No doubt its too early in the season for any serious analysis of those trades, but your right, even at this early stage Sweeney's performance should at the very least protect that trade from being labeled a disaster.
EDIT:
To be perfectly honest, I'm mostly feeling pissy about the Lowrie deal. I hated that trade, and that was long before Melancon crapped out as Bard's replacement at stopper...

Sweeney is 27 and Reddick is 25, so the upside difference is probably smaller than you might think it is by looking at service time.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Sweeney also has a 429 average on balls in play, 96 points better than his career average. I wouldn't anticipate that continues to that extent. Obviously playing well, but to be hitting 350 with 0 HR and 5 BB / 22 K seems like a bit of an anomaly. The A's and Astros trades just seemed like two deals where the Sox were selling low, buying high.