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Manager's Decision


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#51 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:16 AM

But don't mistake his "thank god he isn't pouring on the gasoline" role the last three weeks for the mark of a regular 8th-9th inning arm. His pitches just don't work that well against LHH, nor does his stuff play up when it's close and late.

There's a reason Atchison's K/BB drops to ~1.5 and his OBP skies to .383 in hi-leverage situations, and that is because he's just a moderately good fastball-slider reliever. Leave him where he is in the middle relief muddle, because he's one of the few in the pen who has thus far more-often-than-not been used appropriately.


Not really sure I get this...Atchison's stuff isn't as good "close and late" because.....why, exactly? He hasn't pitched that well in such situations, but it might be a function of a small sample, he hasn't been put in many of those spots (and when he has, its been out of desperation since he's generally been one of the last two guys in the pen). You might be right in that he doesn't have the makeup to handle the role, but Aceves is hardly excelling. The team needs someone who can get lefties & righties out in the 6th-8th IMO, and Aceves seems the most likely.

#52 Bucknahs Bum Ankle


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:20 AM

He did save Morales for the 8th and it worked with a 123 inning.


Saving Morales for the 8th was a horrible move as he was needed to put out the fire in the 6th with the bases loaded, one out, and their big lefties coming up. Trying to piece together that inning around an unprepared and completely ineffective Thomas nearly cost them the game (not to mention Parmalee's life!). Figure out the 8th inning when it comes, but the crucial moment of that game was the 6th inning with the bases loaded.

Edited by Bucknahs Bum Ankle, 26 April 2012 - 11:21 AM.


#53 Red(s)HawksFan

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:31 AM

As much as I think Thomas is a terrible pitcher who doesn't belong on a big league roster anywhere, the thing that bothers me most is the only reason he's there, the only reason they carried 13 pitchers to start, the only reason he survived when Bowden was DFA, is because he's left-handed and Valentine wanted the second lefty in the pen. With that being the case, I'm perplexed that Valentine didn't have this fungible lefty arm warming from the moment Buchholz took the mound in the sixth. I mean, if a reliever was needed for that inning, it was going to be because Buchholz didn't get the 7-8-9 guys out and the top of the order was coming around. And four of the first five in the Twins order last night were left-handed. If there's ever a spot to use the guy who's only on the roster, ostensibly, to pitch to left-handed hitters, that would be it.

Sure, I'd have rather had Morales in that spot, but if Bobby's hell bent on "saving" him for the eighth (which worked out perfectly because these same lefties came up in that inning as well), then use the lefty who's only hanging around to pitch to lefties. Or at the very least, have him ready to do so, which he obviously wasn't.

I know people want to give Valentine the benefit of the doubt because the bullpen is shit from top to bottom. But that really only applies if Valentine is making the percentage moves, or at least trying to maximize what little effectiveness the pitchers might have, and the pitcher still fails. In cases like last night, he's not making the percentage move and he's appearing to be a step or three behind the pace of the game in terms of making moves at all. Atchison wasn't the percentage move to face Mauer. Thomas likely wasn't fully warm when he came in to face Morneau. I don't think it can be shrugged off as simply "look at what he has to work with".

#54 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 11:35 AM

Not really sure I get this...Atchison's stuff isn't as good "close and late" because.....why, exactly? He hasn't pitched that well in such situations, but it might be a function of a small sample, he hasn't been put in many of those spots (and when he has, its been out of desperation since he's generally been one of the last two guys in the pen). You might be right in that he doesn't have the makeup to handle the role, but Aceves is hardly excelling. The team needs someone who can get lefties & righties out in the 6th-8th IMO, and Aceves seems the most likely.


Because his fastball just is average (-0.24 avg. wFB from 2004-2011), and his better-than-average slider only really works well against RHH. In close-and-late situations, that mediocre fastball gets crushed and the slider is let go for a ball.

It's not a question of makeup at all. It's a question of stuff. He has not-great stuff, which he usually throws for strikes. That's usually adequate. But if the opposing manager has excellent hitters due up, or even any decent LHH pinch-hitting options on the bench, Atchison is screwed.

#55 Super Nomario

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:12 PM

Every manager does some stupid stuff from time-to-time, but Bobby V has made a few moves where frankly he's seemed ill-prepared. Yesterday it seemed like he had to bring in Atchison because he didn't have a lefty warming because he didn't anticipate Buchholz losing it, which is crazy because Buchholz has pitched lousy this year. The most charitable interpretation is that, after 10 years out of the game, he's a bit rusty. My question is, what the shit do we have a bench coach for? Is Bobby V ignoring him? Is it possible Tim Bogar is even a worse bench coach than he was a 3B coach? Is Bobby refusing to listen to his other coaches?

Everyone makes mistakes. What floors me is that Saltalamacchia has to point out that the lineup is screwed up, or that no one there figures out that maybe a lefty should be warming a couple batters before the heart of the lineup is up. What the hell do we have a whole coaching staff for?

#56 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:26 PM

Because his fastball just is average (-0.24 avg. wFB from 2004-2011), and his better-than-average slider only really works well against RHH. In close-and-late situations, that mediocre fastball gets crushed and the slider is let go for a ball.


Sorry, but I don't understand this. Why is a mediocre fastball less effective later in the game, when its close? Why are batters not swinging at his slider, simply b/c it's close and late?

#57 dynomite

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:28 PM

I'm reminded of John Madden's thoughts on quarterback controversies: "When you say you have a quarterback controversy, what you're really saying is that you don't have a quarterback."

The true problem: neither Alfredo Aceves nor Scott Atchison should close for the Red Sox.

Personally I find Aceves better suited to the role (better stuff, better mentality) but I don't want either one closing out games. Hurry back, Mr. Bailey.

#58 rembrat


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 12:53 PM

I'd even question his mentality. On Monday Plouffe almost took him out of the yard in walkoff fashion had the ball not died in LF. Last night Tom Kelly couldn't hold back the laughter as he pointed out that Aceves still had this in mind as everything was wide. Ball 4 hit the backstop even.

#59 Al Zarilla


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:06 PM

I'd even question his mentality. On Monday Plouffe almost took him out of the yard in walkoff fashion had the ball not died in LF. Last night Tom Kelly couldn't hold back the laughter as he pointed out that Aceves still had this in mind as everything was wide. Ball 4 hit the backstop even.

Kelly laughing at Bobby, former mgr. laughing at current? Usually, those guys have kind of a fraternity and don't question each other except in a careful, almost apologetic way. Or, maybe I'm thinking of Tito too much in his new gig. Not that Bobby shouldn't have his feet held to the fire.

#60 rembrat


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:08 PM

I don't think he was laughing at Bobby. Although he did say he never tried to disrespect the game, players, or umpires, when his partner recalled the famous Valentine mustache story. Dont think he is a fan.

#61 sachilles


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:14 PM

Filling out a lineup sounds like something a bench coach should be doing. I'm thinking a good bench coach should be assisting the manager to keep track of some of these in game items as well. Much of this seems an awful lot like a manager who is a little rusty, and needs a solid supporting cast.

#62 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:21 PM

“The one that was posted was for the lefthander that I thought was pitching today,’’ Valentine acknowledged with a hearty laugh.




Reading this really irked me. I will give him credit for admitting he screwed up. But based on all the articles during spring training I thought we were getting the Jedi master of game management, and somehow he didnt realize the opposing pitcher was a righty? If he doesnt believe or want to use advanced statistical scouting methods, thats a philosophical difference with how the FO approaches things, but this seemed a little league manager type mistake

#63 Carl Everetts Therapist


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:23 PM

I agree that Bobby V might benefit from a seemingly more astute bench coach, but I'm not buying that he was unprepared to pull Bucholz in time or that he didn't know that he should have had a lefty warming instead of Atch. I simply think he though Buchholz was gonna get through the sixth with just a few bumps and bruises (like he had every inning earlier) and wanted to avoid the craptastic pen at all costs. I think that Bobby V is suffering more from being shellshocked than from being rusty. I think the Detroit games, the Yankee games and the two close ones this series have taken thier toll on Bobby's faith in the pen.....In anyone in the pen at all.

#64 Al Zarilla


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:24 PM

Filling out a lineup sounds like something a bench coach should be doing. I'm thinking a good bench coach should be assisting the manager to keep track of some of these in game items as well. Much of this seems an awful lot like a manager who is a little rusty, and needs a solid supporting cast.

I don't think so. Consult with the bench coach, but the lineup has got to come from the #1 guy. I can't imagine Scioscia, Bochy or Maddon handing off lineup construction.

#65 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:24 PM

Filling out a lineup sounds like something a bench coach should be doing. I'm thinking a good bench coach should be assisting the manager to keep track of some of these in game items as well. Much of this seems an awful lot like a manager who is a little rusty, and needs a solid supporting cast.


This just made me rethink my last post a bit. Is it possible that Bogar posted the incorrect lineup and Bobby was covering up for him? If thats the case I will give Bobby credit, way to take the heat off Bogar, regardless he is still ultimately responsible for the lineup that is posted, but I would be much more willing to give him a pass for that situation.

#66 Carl Everetts Therapist


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:37 PM

I like Bobby, I have been one of his staunchest supporters, but it bothers me a little that Bobby V isn't doing any research on the starting pitcher facing his team. I mean it doesn't even have to be advanced statistical stuff, but he should at least know what the guy throws, some of his tendencies, how many pitches he averages before being pulled , etc. etc. etc.

Knowing that kind of stuff could influence the line-up you put out there, theres more to facing a pitcher than simple handedness.

#67 Super Nomario

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:45 PM

I agree that Bobby V might benefit from a seemingly more astute bench coach, but I'm not buying that he was unprepared to pull Bucholz in time or that he didn't know that he should have had a lefty warming instead of Atch. I simply think he though Buchholz was gonna get through the sixth with just a few bumps and bruises (like he had every inning earlier) and wanted to avoid the craptastic pen at all costs. I think that Bobby V is suffering more from being shellshocked than from being rusty. I think the Detroit games, the Yankee games and the two close ones this series have taken thier toll on Bobby's faith in the pen.....In anyone in the pen at all.

I agree that he thought Buchholz was going to get through it and wasn't prepared for him losing it when he did, but my question is, why didn't he have the right contingency plan? He had Atchison up so he knew it was a possibility that Buchholz might not get through the inning. But the righty was the wrong guy, because with a six-run lead he wasn't going to pull Buchholz after two guys, and if the Twins sent enough guys to the plate to get through those lefties it would already be too late. Why couldn't he look at the Twins lineup and say, "Geez, they have three lefties coming up in a few spots. If a few guys get on, I'm going to be looking at Mauer / Morneau / Parmelee?" And if he missed that, why wasn't Bogar saying, "Hey Bobby, maybe we should get Thomas up?" And if Bogar was saying that, why wasn't Valentine listening?

#68 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:50 PM

Why couldn't he look at the Twins lineup and say, "Geez, they have three lefties coming up in a few spots. If a few guys get on, I'm going to be looking at Mauer / Morneau / Parmelee?" And if he missed that, why wasn't Bogar saying, "Hey Bobby, maybe we should get Thomas up?" And if Bogar was saying that, why wasn't Valentine listening?


This kind of reminds me of a theorized Patriots issue and if Bill really has enough people questioning him that he respects around him. Is it possible that Bobby isnt creating an environment where those around him are comfortable and able to question him and keep him in check?

#69 Super Nomario

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:53 PM

This kind of reminds me of a theorized Patriots issue and if Bill really has enough people questioning him that he respects around him. Is it possible that Bobby isnt creating an environment where those around him are comfortable and able to question him and keep him in check?

Bogar's also a first-year bench coach, which perhaps means he doesn't command the respect that a veteran bench jockey would, or maybe he doesn't feel as comfortable questioning Bobby V as someone with more experience would.

#70 dynomite

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 01:57 PM

I like Bobby, I have been one of his staunchest supporters, but it bothers me a little that Bobby V isn't doing any research on the starting pitcher facing his team. I mean it doesn't even have to be advanced statistical stuff, but he should at least know what the guy throws, some of his tendencies, how many pitches he averages before being pulled , etc. etc. etc.

Knowing that kind of stuff could influence the line-up you put out there, theres more to facing a pitcher than simple handedness.


I find this literally impossible to believe.

From the hitting coach, to the first and third base coaches, to the statistical analysts, to the manager, in 2012 on a team like the Red Sox I would assume hours of research goes into each opposing starter and optimal lineups. Valentine might have posted the wrong lineup, but I cannot bring myself to think he creates his daily lineups in a matter of seconds based solely on the handedness of the opposing starter.

Edit: Formatting

Edited by dynomite, 26 April 2012 - 01:59 PM.


#71 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:04 PM

Bogar's also a first-year bench coach, which perhaps means he doesn't command the respect that a veteran bench jockey would, or maybe he doesn't feel as comfortable questioning Bobby V as someone with more experience would.


So doesnt that kind of go back to Bobby then? Bobby hired him for the job, and if he isnt doing it adequately or Bobby isnt listening, isnt it Bobbys place to step in and fix the situation?

#72 kieckeredinthehead

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:06 PM

Valentine might have posted the wrong lineup, but I cannot bring myself to think he creates his daily lineups in a matter of seconds based solely on the handedness of the opposing starter.


So where did this other lineup come from?

#73 Super Nomario

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:08 PM

So doesnt that kind of go back to Bobby then? Bobby hired him for the job, and if he isnt doing it adequately or Bobby isnt listening, isnt it Bobbys place to step in and fix the situation?

He was there before Bobby, but I think you're right. Bobby needs to be aware enough of his own weaknesses to say, "Hey Tim, can you check over my lineup cards?" or "I screwed up last night not having a left-hander ready. Did you see that? Can you make sure you tell me when you do?" And if Bobby isn't self-aware enough, Ben needs to step in and make sure Bogar is helping out and the communication between manager and bench coach is what it needs to be.

#74 Smiling Joe Hesketh


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:11 PM

So where did this other lineup come from?


And why did he think Minnesota was starting a lefthander? The only way he could have thought that was either through confusion or inattention.

Yeah, it's not big deal in the long run as they resubmitted a lineup, but it makes he and his coaching staff seem...amateurish, I guess. Which they aren't.

#75 dynomite

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:14 PM

So where did this other lineup come from?


Oy vey. It appears I was wrong:

"I looked on this thing," Valentine said, gesturing to his cellphone, "and there was no history on him. It had his name, and 'against left-handed hitting.' My fault. That's why you make these lineups out early enough."


http://sports.yahoo....-040725579.html

Lookit, I've been a Valentine apologist since day one, and I still find a lot of the knee-jerk criticism banal. I gave him the benefit of the doubt here. I want to like the guy.

But... good gravy. If he really sets his lineup based upon a 30 second consultation on his cellphone...

Posted Image

#76 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:15 PM

He was there before Bobby, but I think you're right. Bobby needs to be aware enough of his own weaknesses to say, "Hey Tim, can you check over my lineup cards?" or "I screwed up last night not having a left-hander ready. Did you see that? Can you make sure you tell me when you do?" And if Bobby isn't self-aware enough, Ben needs to step in and make sure Bogar is helping out and the communication between manager and bench coach is what it needs to be.


Sorry I was unclear, I meant that Bobby hired or gave him the bench coach job. As for the other points, I am with you 100%.

#77 Buzzkill Pauley

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:25 PM

And why did he think Minnesota was starting a lefthander? The only way he could have thought that was either through confusion or inattention.

Yeah, it's not big deal in the long run as they resubmitted a lineup, but it makes he and his coaching staff seem...amateurish, I guess. Which they aren't.


Hendriks pitched against the Sox twice in spring training, and started this game only 6 weeks ago, so I'm not sure how much leeway should be given for confusion or inattention.

On its surface, this isn't a big deal -- but if it can be taken as symptomatic of an overall level of not-being-prepared, it kinda is.

#78 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:38 PM

But... good gravy. If he really sets his lineup based upon a 30 second consultation on his cellphone...


Serious question, but what more does he need to know other than what arm the guy throws with? It's obvious he hasn't faced the team much, if ever, so any batter / pitcher splits aren't going to mean anything and would be the kind of thing he'd be ridiculed for if he took into account regarding the lineup.

It's baseball; there's games nearly every day. Do teams really have in depth meetings about every team's starter? I kind of doubt it.

Granted, it's a stupid mistake but i highly doubt it's unique. I'm amused that he admitted it.

#79 rembrat


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:47 PM

It's baseball; there's games nearly every day. Do teams really have in depth meetings about every team's starter? I kind of doubt it.


Do you think they show up an hour before the game, suit up, play, then go home? Every one is there atleast 6-8 hours before the game even stats. Stretching, batting practice, and the occasional infield all happen a few hours before first pitch. I would hope they're using the rest of that time to do their jobs of getting ready to manage. You bet your butt Maddon, Giradi, Farrell are all having daily meetings about the opposition.

#80 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 02:54 PM

Serious question, but what more does he need to know other than what arm the guy throws with? It's obvious he hasn't faced the team much, if ever, so any batter / pitcher splits aren't going to mean anything and would be the kind of thing he'd be ridiculed for if he took into account regarding the lineup.


Very fair question, but while I dont know the inner workings of the RedSox FO I can almost guarantee you that Bobby is provided with enough scouting reports so he does not need to go to his phone. This made me think back to an article Gammons wrote after Grady was fired:

But while Lucchino and Epstein clearly were the Little advocates, they also often scratched their heads at Grady's hunches, including the Burkett and Martinez decisions. Were there issues over Little's rejection of postseason scouting reports? Absolutely. But those issues weren't irreconcilable. Simplistic nitwits who love the notion that Bill James and two 20 year olds at MIT decide who does what when have no clue how this organization works. But there are percentages and histories -- ask Earl Weaver, arguably the greatest modern-day manager, or Bobby Valentine, one of the brightest.


The irony is priceless. Grady is criticized for not using their scouting reports and Gammons praises Valentine as one of the brightest managers. Meanwhile in 2012 in the same organization Bobby didnt know if the opposing pitcher was a lefty or righty.

#81 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:04 PM

The irony is priceless. Grady is criticized for not using their scouting reports and Gammons praises Valentine as one of the brightest managers. Meanwhile in 2012 in the same organization Bobby didnt know if the opposing pitcher was a lefty or righty.


Well, I suspect that there is a lot more prep put into a post-season plan as opposed to an April game against the Twin, against some guy with 6 big league appearances. Regardless, they hit Hendricks OK.

#82 glennhoffmania


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:10 PM

Rudy, that isn't the point. He's in charge of the team on the field. It's his job to prepare the team for every game and put the players in the best position to succeed. I don't care if he used the wrong lineup and they scored 20 runs. The fact that he didn't know that he was a lefty, looked at his cell phone to get the info (and read it wrong apparently), and posted the wrong lineup initially does not instill confidence. It's one thing if he was a brilliant baseball guy but had a big mouth and rubbed some people the wrong way. He's making bonehead decisions and consistently looks very unprepared in various ways.

#83 Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:28 PM

Oy vey. It appears I was wrong:



http://sports.yahoo....-040725579.html

Lookit, I've been a Valentine apologist since day one, and I still find a lot of the knee-jerk criticism banal. I gave him the benefit of the doubt here. I want to like the guy.

But... good gravy. If he really sets his lineup based upon a 30 second consultation on his cellphone...



If the cell phone incident is really the whole story, this is pretty shocking. Obviously it would be an indictment of Valentine, but also -- just as much, really -- an indictment of the team's research department. We know they have state-of-the-art software, stats and video systems. Why did none of these provide any history on this opposing pitcher? I find that hard to believe but if true, pretty bad.

The "cell phone" reference sounds weird and maybe it is. But do we know exactly how the research people transmit info to the team and the manager? I imagine they try to make it as easy as possible. It could well be that rather than give the manager a thick folder of info, they send him what he needs to know via e-mail or by a secured web site, both of which would be accessible on a smart phone. That seems at least as possible as that Bobby V was checking Baseball-Reference.com.

Either way, there isn't a lot of history on Hendriks. That was only his seventh Major League game.

#84 MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:37 PM

Rudy, are you with a straight face saying that all you need to know about the next day's pitcher is what hand he throws with? Especially since it's April, it's the Twins, and these games don't matter much? Even if he's only had six career major league starts, Bobby V's still got a wealth of information about what his splits looked like in the minors, etc. Is he one of the random guys who has reverse splits? Is he a strike-thrower or would more patient hitters be more likely rewarded? Is he the type of guy where you want to take a few pitches to drive his count up because he often gets in trouble that way or is he pretty efficient and you'll just get yourself in a hole?

We've heard for years that Tek and the pitchers would go over the opposing lineup player by player, but we're supposed to believe that the most preparation the manager needs for the next day's starter is a quick look at the old cell phone to see what arm he throws with?

Isn't the whole point of looking at stats and thinking about lineup construction that you maximize every possible advantage, however small it might be? Any monkey can put together a left-handed lineup, a right-handed lineup, and run them out there every day. I think it's okay for people to expect a little better than that.

#85 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:47 PM

Rudy, are you with a straight face saying that all you need to know about the next day's pitcher is what hand he throws with?


No, I'm saying that's the only info he needs to make out the lineup.

But yeah, he got that wrong, so it is pretty stupid. My guess is that the batters are going over the pitcher, and that's how it was brought to Bobby's attention. In terms of what he is doing on a daily basis to prepare for each night's game, well, it doesn't seem like very much, and that is troubling and surprising to me.

#86 Eric Van


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:56 PM

If the cell phone incident is really the whole story, this is pretty shocking. Obviously it would be an indictment of Valentine, but also -- just as much, really -- an indictment of the team's research department. We know they have state-of-the-art software, stats and video systems. Why did none of these provide any history on this opposing pitcher? I find that hard to believe but if true, pretty bad.

The "cell phone" reference sounds weird and maybe it is. But do we know exactly how the research people transmit info to the team and the manager? I imagine they try to make it as easy as possible. It could well be that rather than give the manager a thick folder of info, they send him what he needs to know via e-mail or by a secured web site, both of which would be accessible on a smart phone. That seems at least as possible as that Bobby V was checking Baseball-Reference.com.


I know the way it used to work, because I was part of it.

Tito liked to figure out his lineups for an entire series in advance. The "Assistant to the GM" -- Jed Hoyer in 2005, Zack Scott in 2006-2009 -- had the responsibility of getting Tito all the relevant information in time. (I don't know what form it took.) I was the guy looking at opposing pitcher stats and batter / pitcher matchup histories in 2005-7, and would send my lineup advice based on that, with the supporting numbers (brief and easily digestible), the day before a series started. There may or may not have been guys summarizing scouting reports, or that may have been the direct responsibility of Jed / Zack. You can see that it's an interesting job for the latter, because presumably sometimes the scouting reports would reinforce the statistical evidence and sometimes even contradict it.

Bobby V apparently likes to do this game-by-game, and Zack has been given a new title which suggests new responsibilities. So it seems very likely that this screw-up was the result of working out the bugs in whatever system has replaced the old one (including possibly someone other than Zack doing the job, and doing it for the first time), rather than gross incompetence. As in, oops, the new report format that we set up for Bobby V. omitted pitcher handedness, never noticed that before!

I imagine that the info is sent by e-mail when they're on the road, and that Bobby V. was either reading his on his phone rather than a laptop, or was gesturing to the phone as a generic e-mail device even though he actually used a laptop. If the report is brief enough to be easily read on a cell phone, and so simple that it doesn't provide any more nuance than R/L splits, I do find that a bit discouraging.

Edit: come to think of it, I recall Jed implying that he would call Tito on the phone when the team was on the road, in which case an e-mail might just include the stats, for later reference. In which case you have to wonder again what system they now have in place, and how much interest Bobby V. has in going into the level of detail that Tito was willing to consider. I know that at times I made arguments for unusual lineup decisions that needed a bit of explanation, and that these were well considered.

Edited by Eric Van, 26 April 2012 - 04:04 PM.


#87 Toe Nash

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:57 PM

There may be only a very small advantage to be gained, but there's no luxury tax or salary cap against hiring someone whose sole job (or who can devote enough time) it is to scout opposing teams and figure out how best to attack them. If the Red Sox provided Bobby with reports on the Twins and he ignored them, that's sad and embarrassing. If they didn't actually have an advanced scout assigned to the Twins, that's also sad and embarrassing.


It shocked me to read the article a few years ago about Voros McCracken (http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201101/sabermetrician-exile), specifically how little he was paid by the Red Sox. You would think that when a single win can be worth millions if it means the difference between making the playoffs or not that guys like this (and by extension advance scouts who recommend the best lineup for an opposing pitcher) would be more highly-valued.

edit: Thanks for the info EV. I'd be very interested in what the truth was here. Did Bobby have a good report and ignore it / not understand it? Have the procedures for the org. changed?

Edited by Toe Nash, 26 April 2012 - 03:59 PM.


#88 Red(s)HawksFan

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 03:59 PM

But yeah, he got that wrong, so it is pretty stupid. My guess is that the batters are going over the pitcher, and that's how it was brought to Bobby's attention. In terms of what he is doing on a daily basis to prepare for each night's game, well, it doesn't seem like very much, and that is troubling and surprising to me.


I think the incident also revealed that Bobby isn't big on planning out his lineup a day in advance as Tito did. Not saying he's wrong to not do it the way Tito did, but this kind of thing probably wouldn't have happened to Francona for the simple fact that he'd have informed Saltalamacchia, Shoppach, Sweeney, and McDonald the night before what their role for the game was going to be. The "wrong" lineup probably wouldn't have made it to through the night, let alone posted for the media.

#89 Al Zarilla


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:08 PM

Thing is, how approachable is Bobby from players or a coach to suggest to him that maybe he's making a basic goof. I could imagine in the past Pedroia or Ortiz going up to Tito and saying, hey you having a brain cramp with that lineup (or something much more colorful)? He'd then laugh and thank them for pointing it out and that would be it. With Bobby, maybe they'd rather let him stew in his own juice.

#90 Eric Van


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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:09 PM

It shocked me to read the article a few years ago about Voros McCracken (http://www.thepostga...metrician-exile), specifically how little he was paid by the Red Sox.


Funny thing, I wasn't. :)

There's a whole untold story about the attitude of upper management towards consultant compensation (not just me, in general). I've been debating whether to talk about that.

Edit: rather than be coy, I think I can say this (just don't ask me for details, at least not yet): At least at times in the past, Baseball Ops has certainly wished they had a bigger budget for consultants. And yes, considering the cost/benefit of good consultants, and the percentage of the overall budget we're talking about, I I find that as amazing as you do.

Edited by Eric Van, 26 April 2012 - 04:15 PM.


#91 trekfan55

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:30 PM

Thing is, how approachable is Bobby from players or a coach to suggest to him that maybe he's making a basic goof. I could imagine in the past Pedroia or Ortiz going up to Tito and saying, hey you having a brain cramp with that lineup (or something much more colorful)? He'd then laugh and thank them for pointing it out and that would be it. With Bobby, maybe they'd rather let him stew in his own juice.


But it was Salty who pointed out his mistake (mainly I guess because he thought he should be in the lineup). So maybe he is approachable. The realtionship that Pedroia had with Tito was very special, but whatever his faults (and there are several) I don't think Bobby is unapproachable.

One other thing is that he has always come clean and admitted that he screwed up. I know the idea is he shouldn't but he has owned up to what he did instead of either saying "manager's decision" or some other reason.

#92 wutang112878

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:46 PM

I know the way it used to work, because I was part of it.


I realize there have been significant changes since you left, but... do you think there is really any chance that Bobby isnt provided at the least a 1 page executive summary on the opposing pitcher before every game? Or say a binder before each series as a general scouting report for the opposing team? Basically my point being, there is little doubt he was provided enough information about the opposing team to know which hand the next starter throws with.

#93 Gene Conleys Plane Ticket

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 04:56 PM

I know the way it used to work, because I was part of it.

Tito liked to figure out his lineups for an entire series in advance. The "Assistant to the GM" -- Jed Hoyer in 2005, Zack Scott in 2006-2009 -- had the responsibility of getting Tito all the relevant information in time. (I don't know what form it took.) I was the guy looking at opposing pitcher stats and batter / pitcher matchup histories in 2005-7, and would send my lineup advice based on that, with the supporting numbers (brief and easily digestible), the day before a series started. There may or may not have been guys summarizing scouting reports, or that may have been the direct responsibility of Jed / Zack. You can see that it's an interesting job for the latter, because presumably sometimes the scouting reports would reinforce the statistical evidence and sometimes even contradict it.

Bobby V apparently likes to do this game-by-game, and Zack has been given a new title which suggests new responsibilities. So it seems very likely that this screw-up was the result of working out the bugs in whatever system has replaced the old one (including possibly someone other than Zack doing the job, and doing it for the first time), rather than gross incompetence. As in, oops, the new report format that we set up for Bobby V. omitted pitcher handedness, never noticed that before!

I imagine that the info is sent by e-mail when they're on the road, and that Bobby V. was either reading his on his phone rather than a laptop, or was gesturing to the phone as a generic e-mail device even though he actually used a laptop. If the report is brief enough to be easily read on a cell phone, and so simple that it doesn't provide any more nuance than R/L splits, I do find that a bit discouraging.

Edit: come to think of it, I recall Jed implying that he would call Tito on the phone when the team was on the road, in which case an e-mail might just include the stats, for later reference. In which case you have to wonder again what system they now have in place, and how much interest Bobby V. has in going into the level of detail that Tito was willing to consider. I know that at times I made arguments for unusual lineup decisions that needed a bit of explanation, and that these were well considered.


Excellent info, Eric. Much gratitude for explaining it here.

Based on this and what little I understand as an outsider, its seems to me that this was an organizatonal screw up for which BV bears partial responsibility, but not full. I would hope that in the future if he looks to his "cell phone" and sees only skimpy information about an opposing pitcher (or any player), he'd take it upon himself to make a call back to the home office and ask, "Is this all we got on this guy?" Juts doing that might have prevented the red-faces over the lineup card mistake.

Also, do we know for a fact that BV makes his lineups day-to-day rather than at the start of the series, like Tito? Is it possible he made this mistaken lineup two days earlier and the mistake only came to his attention on the day of the game?

Another possible factor. The day-to-dat lineup may be a leftover habit from Japan, where teams traditionaly have not been required to announce their starting pitchers in advance. That rule may have changed -- I'm not sure. I think the Pacific League (in which Bobby managed) went to a day-before system a while ago. But teams still may not announce their pitchers days or even a week in advance as they do here.

#94 Eric Van


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Posted 27 April 2012 - 03:04 AM

Based on this and what little I understand as an outsider, its seems to me that this was an organizational screw up for which BV bears partial responsibility, but not full.


I'd agree with that being likeliest. To answer wutang, yes, it's likely that the pitcher handedness was in some report that BV had, but maybe not where he was looking for it. In other words, the F.O. and BV may not have been on the same page ... literally.

Also, do we know for a fact that BV makes his lineups day-to-day rather than at the start of the series, like Tito?


That difference from Tito has been reported several times by the media, I think. It was one of the coolest things Tito did, not only in terms of giving players days to prepare, but in shielding both Tito and the players from over-reacting to one good or bad game.

#95 Al Zarilla


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Posted 27 April 2012 - 12:45 PM

But it was Salty who pointed out his mistake (mainly I guess because he thought he should be in the lineup). So maybe he is approachable. The realtionship that Pedroia had with Tito was very special, but whatever his faults (and there are several) I don't think Bobby is unapproachable.

One other thing is that he has always come clean and admitted that he screwed up. I know the idea is he shouldn't but he has owned up to what he did instead of either saying "manager's decision" or some other reason.

OK, have to get on the side of hoping for the best with BV, because if he fails, the team does also. I was thinking with some already caustic stuff with Youkilis and Pedroia, a couple of vets, there might be some friction because a lot of players would side with them instead of the manager. Have to stay positive here +++.

#96 Plympton91


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Posted 28 April 2012 - 08:52 AM

Its amazing how much less people post when they're winning. A couple discussion questions circulating in my gray matter:

1) What has Valentine done differently during the 5 game winning streak that he wasn't doing during the 4-10 start? Anything? Was the, "Are you trying to kill me?" moment an brilliant managerial ice breaker that relaxed the team and sparked a hot streak?

2) When does the decision to put Aviles in the leadoff spot become a good choice based on experience and judgment instead of a boneheaded move by a guy who ignored the spreadsheets and just happened to get lucky?

Another set of questions about the importance of continuity and costs of change:

3) Would Francona have used McDonald over Repko, given McDonald's success in 2010? Given 2010 and spring training evidence, is McDonald, like Aviles someone who plays much better with regular at bats? Is McDonald 2010 sufficiently better than Repko that BV can be blamed for marginally decreasing the win probability for a week?

4) Similarly, given Albers strong performance in the first half of 2011, would Francona have been more likely to use Albers in those 2 situations earlier in the year where SOSH consensus was to do so?

Finally, wanted to comment on the theme propping up about Valentine being "rusty". I have to say it resonates with me. I've been really surprised by what seems like the lack of preparation and foresight in some situations, even during the winning streak. Second, I've also been surprised by how inarticulate he's been in post-game interviews. Maybe that's just the "muzzle" he's got on himself after eating a couple shoes in the first two weeks. But, it'll be interesting to me to see if there's evidence of him finding his "seas legs" again over the coming weeks.

#97 rembrat


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Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:17 AM

Its amazing how much less people post when they're winning. A couple discussion questions circulating in my gray matter:

1) What has Valentine done differently during the 5 game winning streak that he wasn't doing during the 4-10 start? Anything? Was the, "Are you trying to kill me?" moment an brilliant managerial ice breaker that relaxed the team and sparked a hot streak?


Absolutely not. I don't think 6 words have the power to make ballplayers play better. Did you not see Aceves almost blow the game in Minnesota? When Valentine doesn't have to manage close and late situations he does alright. Although I have a problem with him PH Punto for Ortiz last night. I understand that he is an NL guy who likes to empty his bench during a blowout, which is totally fine, kudos on getting Lars @ 1B and giving Adrian a blow, but not in a spot where runs are at stake. Unless he got Ventura to agree to stop trying to score runs, I don't see the advantage gained.

If the offense can keep on rolling his warts aren't going to show.

2) When does the decision to put Aviles in the leadoff spot become a good choice based on experience and judgment instead of a boneheaded move by a guy who ignored the spreadsheets and just happened to get lucky?

Another set of questions about the importance of continuity and costs of change:


June or July. If Aviles still has an OPS of .800 by that time then Valentine can take his victory lap. But his numbers vs RHP are already starting to back down to earth .304/.328/.500 and are getting closer to career norms of .285/.308/.403. And once that OBA is down to .300 it's really going to start to hurt out of the leadoff spot. He is fine in that spot vs LHP though.

#98 Plympton91


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Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:26 AM

Speaking of Ventura, I can only imagine the shitstorm this thread would be today if Valentine had left a tired, struggling lefthanded starter in the game to face Darnell McDonald with the bases loaded and the score tied in the 6th, and then let him face Byrd as well.

I'm hoping the decision to PH Punto was just an overzealous attempt to get him an at bat, and not because Papi is nursing something.

#99 rembrat


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Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:31 AM

The only thing Papi is nursing is a white hot bat.

Punto last started a game on 4/16 and now that Youks is rolling again (.316/.381/.474 on the road trip) he can't justify sitting him in favor of his binky. So he has to do silly things like PH Punto for Ortiz which probably has to infuriate Ortiz who loves him his RsBI.

#100 Rudy Pemberton


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Posted 28 April 2012 - 09:38 AM

Seriously, we are complaining about a PH appearance on the late innings of a blowout now? More bitching about Punto, who is averaging a plate appearance a game? Aviles, with just an 828 OPS vs righties shouldn't be batting lead off vs RH? We get that you hate the manager, but you're reaching.




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