730 replies to this topic

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Playing Reliever Roulette seems to have worked for Joe Maddon for years. Valentine is apparently a fan of the approach.

When you have marginal relievers, playing matchups strikes me as the best approach.

Atchison was laughing after being pulled after only 2 pitches.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

When you have marginal relievers, playing matchups strikes me as the best approach.

Exactly right -- until the Sox get more than one excellent arm back there, I'm willing to tolerate 45-minute 7th innings if it means more Red Sox wins.

[Laschelle Tarver]

Playing Reliever Roulette seems to have worked for Joe Maddon for years. Valentine is apparently a fan of the approach.

When you have marginal relievers, playing matchups strikes me as the best approach.

Atchison was laughing after being pulled after only 2 pitches.

Totally agree. Other than being a little slow getting guys up when the starters appear to be a teetering a bit, I think the overall bullpen management has been the best part of Valentine's management style to date. Not having Justin Thomas at his disposal has been immensely helpful in that regard.

[trekfan55]

PeteAbe:

Valentine on how he used his bullpen tonight: "I was going after this game tonight. I thought the guys really wanted this game and I was going to do everything we could to win it. Not that I don’t manage that way every day but sometimes I’ll take some future considerations. There weren’t any future considerations tonight.”

So he played this game in Playoff Mode.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Part of me sympathized with Don's "Is this the World Series" comment for sure (maybe the funniest thing Don's ever said on air?), but it's hard to argue with the results. When you have a bullpen with relievers with splits as large as they are, you have to put them in a position to succeed and hope it works out.

Just look at the four pitchers used starting with Miller being brought in to finish the 6th:

Hill vs. lefties: .651
Hill vs. righties: .747

Atchison vs. righties: .673
Atchison vs. lefties: .763

Miller vs. lefties: .799 OPS
Miller vs. righties: .837 OPS

(Though Miller actually has almost identical OBP numbers vs. either side.)

Padilla vs. righties: .673
Padilla vs. lefties: .844

Really, the only argument you can make there is that Miller isn't exactly a lefty specialist, but he's been so lights out thus far (8 k/bb, zero runs allowed), it's hard to argue with his usage.

By playing the matchups, Bobby created a .675 or so OPS against pitcher, which isn't outstanding, but is pretty serviceable for a 7th-inning guy.

[Laschelle Tarver]

Plus (and I make this statement without knowing how much wear and tear warming up has on these guys versus pitches they throw in the game), it makes it more likely they can be used again tonight.

[Toe Nash]

Part of me sympathized with Don's "Is this the World Series" comment for sure (maybe the funniest thing Don's ever said on air?), but it's hard to argue with the results. When you have a bullpen with relievers with splits as large as they are, you have to put them in a position to succeed and hope it works out.

Just look at the four pitchers used starting with Miller being brought in to finish the 6th:

Hill vs. lefties: .651
Hill vs. righties: .747

Atchison vs. righties: .673
Atchison vs. lefties: .763

Miller vs. lefties: .799 OPS
Miller vs. righties: .837 OPS

(Though Miller actually has almost identical OBP numbers vs. either side.)

Padilla vs. righties: .673
Padilla vs. lefties: .844

Really, the only argument you can make there is that Miller isn't exactly a lefty specialist, but he's been so lights out thus far (8 k/bb, zero runs allowed), it's hard to argue with his usage.

By playing the matchups, Bobby created a .675 or so OPS against pitcher, which isn't outstanding, but is pretty serviceable for a 7th-inning guy.

These seem to be career splits. With these guys I'm not sure those are particularly helpful, as three of them got most of their time as starters and the other has become a much better pitcher over the last year plus.

More telling is probably:

Scott vs. RHP: .860
Scott vs. LHP: .765

Keppinger vs. RHP: .662
Keppinger vs. LHP: .861

Pena vs. RHP: .880
Pena vs. LHP: .732

So, you definitely want to avoid Keppinger against LHP. Scott isn't a huge priority, but you don't want a tired pitcher in there in a tight situation. Pena definitely struggles against LHP.

I'm cool with it given Bobby's postgame comments. Can certainly understand going for the kill in that game, but I'm glad he's not likely to make it a habit. As I said, the chance that you get to a "cold" reliever I don't like going through the pen that quickly in general, plus given the extra wear it puts on the pitchers it's not a good thing to consistently do.

[JMDurron]

Part of me sympathized with Don's "Is this the World Series" comment for sure (maybe the funniest thing Don's ever said on air?),

Pretty sure that was Remy as they went to commercial as Atchison was being pulled.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Pretty sure that was Remy as they went to commercial as Atchison was being pulled.

Gamethread consensus was DO, but it's not really important, I guess. I was sort of hoping it was DO since he seems like such a company man otherwise and it was a nice little peek behind the curtain on his real thoughts.

[Sprowl]

I dunno. It worked but I don't want to see it becoming a habit. The chances that you get to a guy who is "off" that night seem to me greater than the chances that Atchison can't get Carlos Pena out. Or even, just hold him to less than a HR, since there was no one on base. If Atchison pitches around Pena and walks him, you think he can't deal with Rodriguez and Elliot Johnson to get out of the inning?

These seem to be career splits. With these guys I'm not sure those are particularly helpful, as three of them got most of their time as starters and the other has become a much better pitcher over the last year plus.

More telling is probably:

Scott vs. RHP: .860
Scott vs. LHP: .765

Keppinger vs. RHP: .662
Keppinger vs. LHP: .861

Pena vs. RHP: .880
Pena vs. LHP: .732

So, you definitely want to avoid Keppinger against LHP. Scott isn't a huge priority, but you don't want a tired pitcher in there in a tight situation. Pena definitely struggles against LHP.

Atchison career OPS splits:
vLHB .763
vRHB .673

Avoiding the Atchison-vs-Peña matchup looks to me like a very high priority. Atchison has been effective because he has been used carefully, which to me means using him as a high-leverage ROOGY (last night), a medium-leverage RLR, or a low-leverage long reliever. Except for Valentine's bizarre call to bring him in to face Mauer, Atchison has been put in a position to succeed.

[trekfan55]

Let's not forget that it was a 1 run game and the Rays had been chipping away using their usual "small ball-stealing bases-incredible luck in BABIP" combinations. This is a moment when BobbyV managed the game to try not to let anyone get on base. The insurance runs driven in by Ross in the 8th made things a little different.

Maybe if the lead was a 3 run lead in the 7th he lets Atchison face Pena and then Rodriguez.

[Toe Nash]

Atchison career OPS splits:
vLHB .763
vRHB .673

Avoiding the Atchison-vs-Peña matchup looks to me like a very high priority. Atchison has been effective because he has been used carefully, which to me means using him as a high-leverage ROOGY (last night), a medium-leverage RLR, or a low-leverage long reliever. Except for Valentine's bizarre call to bring him in to face Mauer, Atchison has been put in a position to succeed.

I don't think you're giving Atchison enough credit, and his career numbers aren't too helpful as I noted (nor are Pena's when evaluating him now, honestly). Over the past two years Atchison's allowed a .617 OPS overall and just 1 HR (which as I noted is really what you'd want to avoid in that situation considering the terrible hitters coming after Pena). This year he's been very effective against pretty much all hitters-he's allowed just 6 hits and 2 BB in 57 PA against hitters batting 1-6 in the order. His worst performance has actually come against #7 hitters. I'd like to see him get higher-leverage outings, though it's not necessary now that others are pitching well and he seems to accept the role.

He still has a split, but in 46 PA this year he's allowed just a .585 OPS from lefties. Pena only has a .789 OPS against RHP this year -- he's still kinda dangerous but I think it's clear his best days are behind him and have been for a few years. Yes, it's not an ideal matchup and if you had a relief staff of 40 guys you would avoid it, but if you're not in playoff mode it seems like a matchup Atchison could handle.

I wonder what Bobby's plan was if Padilla failed, or if the Rays had managed to tie it and the game went into extras? That's when you'd really regret using 4 pitchers in 4 batters.

As I've said numerous times, it worked out and it's an understandable decision if you're going for the throat. I just don't think the hitters faced were so scary, or the situation so dire (with no one on) that it was really necessary.

Edited by Toe Nash, 18 May 2012 - 12:56 PM.

[SumnerH]

Let's not forget that it was a 1 run game and the Rays had been chipping away using their usual "small ball-stealing bases-incredible luck in BABIP" combinations.

Tampa had the 2nd worst BABIP in the AL last year (and were bottom 5 the year before).

[Sprowl]

He still has a split, but in 46 PA this year he's allowed just a .585 OPS from lefties.

I don't think that will hold true as the sample grows, and I say that as an admirer of Atchison's slider against righties. Against lefties, he throws it 40% of the time instead of 60%, and the whiff rate goes from 19% down to 9%. I think he has performed unsustainably well against lefties so far this year, and that he has not turned the corner at age 36 to be used as an ace reliever.

With Hill, Miller and Morales all healthy and throwing with good movement, he team has more lefties than it can use. Here was an opportunity where they could be used to capture an advantage, and they performed as expected.

[JakeRae]

I don't think you're giving Atchison enough credit, and his career numbers aren't too helpful as I noted (nor are Pena's when evaluating him now, honestly). Over the past two years Atchison's allowed a .617 OPS overall and just 1 HR (which as I noted is really what you'd want to avoid in that situation considering the terrible hitters coming after Pena). This year he's been very effective against pretty much all hitters-he's allowed just 6 hits and 2 BB in 57 PA against hitters batting 1-6 in the order. His worst performance has actually come against #7 hitters. I'd like to see him get higher-leverage outings, though it's not necessary now that others are pitching well and he seems to accept the role. He still has a split, but in 46 PA this year he's allowed just a .585 OPS from lefties. Pena only has a .789 OPS against RHP this year -- he's still kinda dangerous but I think it's clear his best days are behind him and have been for a few years. Yes, it's not an ideal matchup and if you had a relief staff of 40 guys you would avoid it, but if you're not in playoff mode it seems like a matchup Atchison could handle. I wonder what Bobby's plan was if Padilla failed, or if the Rays had managed to tie it and the game went into extras? That's when you'd really regret using 4 pitchers in 4 batters. As I've said numerous times, it worked out and it's an understandable decision if you're going for the throat. I just don't think the hitters faced were so scary, or the situation so dire (with no one on) that it was really necessary.

Atchison has a larger platoon split than his career numbers this year at .585 OPS from lefties and .406 OPS against righties. That's not really relevant as his career platoon split is far more instructive than his SSS numbers from this year. His low OPS numbers against both sides are due for some regression upwards as he's not really this good, but what we really care about in this discussion is that he's a significantly better pitcher against RHB than LHB not his overall quality.

Also, the 4 pitchers for 4 batters thing, while technically true, is a misleading characterization of what happened. He went to 3 pitchers for a batter apiece and then went to Padilla for the last out in the 7th and to pitch the 8th. The bullpen still had Albers and Morales if the game ended up in extras, so it wasn't like he completely ran through the pen either. While in general I prefer he use pitchers in situations where they'll face multiple batters, I think this is a good example of how he should manage the pen in the playoffs and his choosing to treat this game like a playoff game makes sense considering that they really need to show they can win against good teams.

I've come full circle on Bobby V. I started the season thinking he was the best of a not great set of options (after Sveum) and that while I probably wouldn't love him as a person, his managing would be fine. Early this season, Bobby V managed like an idiot and I turned strongly against him. Over the last 2 weeks or so, he's started to set lineups that makes sense, has started platooning relievers, and has started to look like he's deciding when to pull starters based on actually watching them pitch. I am now cautiously optimistic that his idiocy early in the season was just from being out of the game for a while and that he can really be good at this job. ("Figuring out what he has" was and remains a preposterous excuse since most of these guys have long track records of being what they are.)

[HriniakPosterChild]

Tampa had the 2nd worst BABIP in the AL last year (and were bottom 5 the year before).

Maybe so against the rest of the league, but I watch them only when they play the Sox.

[trekfan55]

Tampa had the 2nd worst BABIP in the AL last year (and were bottom 5 the year before).

To my totally untrained statisical mind, they seem to have the best luck when facing the Red Sox. /end sidetrack.

Edit: and beaten to it to boot.

Edited by trekfan55, 18 May 2012 - 04:31 PM.

[SumnerH]

Maybe so against the rest of the league, but I watch them only when they play the Sox.

Tampa had a .265 BABIP vs. the Sox last year (average vs. the Sox was .276). And a .253 in 2010 (average: .283).

[HriniakPosterChild]

Must have been BABIP with RISP that burned us so badly, then.

[Reverend]

Must have been BABIP with RISP that burned us so badly, then.

That and sacrifice flies are the only BABIP related ways to score runs, so this is bordering on a truism. Confirmation bias seems more likely, but if someone knows how to find BABIP with RISP versus specific teams that shows otherwise, I'll be happy to concede.

[Plympton91]

Why is Saltalamacchia starting today? Does Beckett all of a sudden after 2 years like throwing to him? Seems like a perfect gamde to use Shoppach.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Why is Saltalamacchia starting today? Does Beckett all of a sudden after 2 years like throwing to him? Seems like a perfect gamde to use Shoppach.

Valentine said before the game that after the success Beckett had throwing to Salty last time, he was sticking with it. That, and he was "riding the hot hand" with how Salty has been swinging the bat. But yeah, day game after a night game, lefty pitching for Philly...this seems like a tailor-made game for Shoppach.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Nice reverse jinx, P91.

Hot hand, indeed.

[HriniakPosterChild]

That and sacrifice flies are the only BABIP related ways to score runs, so this is bordering on a truism. Confirmation bias seems more likely, but if someone knows how to find BABIP with RISP versus specific teams that shows otherwise, I'll be happy to concede.

C'mon, who you gonna believe--me or those lying statistics of yours?

[Toe Nash]

Bobby has been better recently and his management of the pen especially has been pretty good. The Gonzalez to right thing has had decent results and if Joe Maddon had done it he'd get lauded as a next level genius use of resources. But one thing really puzzled me about last night.

Pinch hitting Nick Punto for Lin in the ninth when down by one, with none on. You need baserunners in that situation more than anything. Lin showed no power in the minors but pretty good on-base skills, with a walk rate consistently above 10%. In fact he's pretty similar to Punto, and Punto has been struggling this year. I don't see Punto as a huge upgrade if at all, plus if Lin walks he could steal a base.

But what's stranger about the move is that it took an outfielder out of the game when both bench outfielders had already been used (Was Podsednik hurt? Why did Byrd go in for him?). Had the Sox managed to tie the game and send it to extras, presumably Gonzalez would have to go back into right field and Youk would take over at first while Punto played third. This from a manager who had removed Gonzalez in the 6th inning of a tie game because he was worried about his defense costing them a crucial run.

Punto over Lin is maybe enough of an upgrade to justify the move if you still had a decent outfielder left (or if you were convinced that Punto was going to hit like he did last year the rest of the way and this is just a slump and not the decline of a 34-year-old scrub). But when you'd have to downgrade you defense so much in the somewhat likely event of extra innings, I think it's a pretty poor move.

[Pumpsie]

Meh. Maybe because Lin is a 23 year-old right-handed hitter with 5 ML atbats. And Punto is 12-year veteran switch-hitter who is on the roster to supposedly fill just this role.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I was scratching my head about Punto hitting for Lin as well, but the Byrd for Podsednik move is definitely the more questionable one in my mind. Unless Podsednik was ailing somehow, the substitution made absolutely no sense because it really didn't improve the defense notably and it shortened the bench, opening the possibility of having to move Gonzalez back to the outfield in extras.

In Saturday's game, Byrd was the starter in CF, and then Podsednik hit for Lin (in as a defensive sub for Gonzalez) late in the game. With both guys on the field, Byrd was shifted to RF and Podsednik went to center. That tells me that between the two, Valentine sees Podsednik as the better center fielder. If that's the case, what gain was there to subbing Byrd for the final three outs on Sunday?

Ultimately it didn't make any difference at all, but it just struck me as short-sighted decision-making, and making a substitution just for the sake of it. In a blow-out game, I could see emptying the bench to get everyone an inning or two, especially if the bench players haven't seen much action. But this was a one-run game, and all of the outfielders have been seeing near daily playing time in some capacity. Byrd played the full game the day before, it's not as though he needed to get in to keep himself sharp. It was baffling.

[Plympton91]

In Saturday's game, Byrd was the starter in CF, and then Podsednik hit for Lin (in as a defensive sub for Gonzalez) late in the game. With both guys on the field, Byrd was shifted to RF and Podsednik went to center. That tells me that between the two, Valentine sees Podsednik as the better center fielder. If that's the case, what gain was there to subbing Byrd for the final three outs on Sunday?

Could it be that Bryd and Podsednik have comparable range, and Bryd has the better arm? So, Byrd is superior, but when they're both in the game you want the better arm in right.

[judyb]

Has Podsednik ever played RF? He used to play left regularly, center sometimes, he may have enough of a noodle arm that he's never actually played right at all.

[Al Zarilla]

Has Podsednik ever played RF? He used to play left regularly, center sometimes, he may have enough of a noodle arm that he's never actually played right at all.

According to BRef and Baseball Almanac, he's played about 20 games in right over 10 years. Don't know if those were just in parks with smaller RFs where a noodle arm could be hid. However, you'd think a guy who's been a utility OFer a lot of his career would have played in all three somewhat more equally if he had an arm. So, I'd bet his arm is weak. Hard to believe we're digging to this extent about Pods' experience and where he might play.

[Toe Nash]

Meh. Maybe because Lin is a 23 year-old right-handed hitter with 5 ML atbats. And Punto is 12-year veteran switch-hitter who is on the roster to supposedly fill just this role.

I thought Punto was supposed to be a defensive replacement and give Youk / Aviles some days off without killing you. I didn't realize he was the on-base machine that you went to against the other team's closer.

Punto gave a nice veteran AB of looking completely overmatched, looking at two called strikes before grounding out weakly to short.

The 5 career ABs from Lin is because Bobby has been terrified to let him hit, putting Byrd and Podsednik in before him. As stated he has decent minor league OBP numbers and it would have been nice to see if those translated to the majors at all (in his other games, too).

As I said it was defensible if you hadn't already shortened your bench. With the potential of creating a much weaker defense in extra innings, I don't think it's worth the upgrade.

[Pumpsie]

I thought Punto was supposed to be a defensive replacement and give Youk / Aviles some days off without killing you. I didn't realize he was the on-base machine that you went to against the other team's closer.

Punto gave a nice veteran AB of looking completely overmatched, looking at two called strikes before grounding out weakly to short.

The 5 career ABs from Lin is because Bobby has been terrified to let him hit, putting Byrd and Podsednik in before him. As stated he has decent minor league OBP numbers and it would have been nice to see if those translated to the majors at all (in his other games, too).

As I said it was defensible if you hadn't already shortened your bench. With the potential of creating a much weaker defense in extra innings, I don't think it's worth the upgrade.

Lin had NO chance in that situation against a right-handed ML closer throwing 97-98 MPH. He would have looked pathetic. Why would you put a young player there the day before sending him back down? At least with Punto, you could hope he could wrestle a walk or a bloop somewhere. I don't think this is a biggie.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Could it be that Bryd and Podsednik have comparable range, and Bryd has the better arm? So, Byrd is superior, but when they're both in the game you want the better arm in right.

Fair enough, I suppose. But is the upgrade (arm or range) enough to make the change when he did, with the possibility of Lin's spot coming up in the bottom of the inning should the Rays tie or take the lead against Aceves?

I get having the confidence in your closer to get the job done, and with the way Aceves has pitched lately he deserves the confidence, but part of the manager's job is to think ahead and plan for every scenario. Leaving himself with only Punto and Shoppach on the bench while having Lin due up in the bottom of the inning and apparently being deathly afraid of letting Lin hit at all wasn't the most forward thinking of manuevers.

Punto for Lin by itself is a defensible decision. In combination with the Byrd-Podsednik switch, it's definitely more questionable. As I said, ultimately it had little to no effect on the outcome of the game, but the thinking (or lack of thinking) that went into the moves is a bit concerning.

[twothousandone]

Hard to believe we're digging to this extent about Pods' experience and where he might play.

Seriously? I think it is what we do best.

I didn't see the game, but given the PH decision and the OF sub decision, I think I agree with this

I was scratching my head about Punto hitting for Lin as well, but the Byrd for Podsednik move is definitely the more questionable one in my mind. . .

Ultimately it didn't make any difference at all, but it just struck me as short-sighted decision-making, and making a substitution just for the sake of it.

THAT, to me, is Bobby V. He just wants to be in the game, good, bad, or indifferent, He can't manage by watching. I think it was John Wooden who complained about late game time-outs and such, suggesting practice is when teams ought to prepare for those situations, and the players should be ready. Seems to me that Bobby V is Digger Phelps to Francona's Wooden. "I'm going to tinker until this thing is over." He probably even debated (to himslef) how McDonald as pitcher impacted the OF defense.

That's also the way Bobby Flay cooks rice for jambalaya, according to one of the throwdowns. He should leave it alone, but he can't.

Edited by twothousandone, 28 May 2012 - 05:11 PM.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Wasn't watching the game, but somewhat surprised to see Aceves in a mop-up situation. i guess I get the get-back-on-the-horse theory, and I've heard closers day they want to get back on the mound after blowing one, but I feel like that's something you do with a younger player. Maybe I'm discounting how young on the closer job Aceves still is.

I don't think I'd have put him out there until there was another save chance. That's getting back on the same horse.

[Al Zarilla]

Seriously? I think it is what we do best.

What I meant was it's hard to believe, and maddening we have to even think about whether Podsednik can play RF (and that guys like Repko and Byrd have played center) when we thought we'd have an OF of Crawford, Ellsbury and Ross/Sweeney this year. The injuries, the injuries.

[Plympton91]

Very much in favor of the decision to hit Nava leadoff today. Not sure if they're better off with Nava or Sweeney there going forward. Case for Sweeney is experience and consisitency, case for Nava is that he's been awesome. Go with the hot hand until it cools off, says I.

[Rasputin]

What I meant was it's hard to believe, and maddening we have to even think about whether Podsednik can play RF (and that guys like Repko and Byrd have played center) when we thought we'd have an OF of Crawford, Ellsbury and Ross/Sweeney this year. The injuries, the injuries.

I keep telling myself that making the post season could be as easy as winning ten more games than the .500 team we look like.

We get our entire outfield back and get the one insanely bad spot in the rotation up to an acceptable level and we're going to be one hell of a dangerous team come the second half of the season.

[Pumpsie]

I keep telling myself that making the post season could be as easy as winning ten more games than the .500 team we look like.

We get our entire outfield back and get the one insanely bad spot in the rotation up to an acceptable level and we're going to be one hell of a dangerous team come the second half of the season.

Exactly. After 48 games, and after everything going as badly as possible, we're 2 1/2 games out of the last playoff spot, 6 games behind the best team in the league, and have 114 games to make that up. Just get our actual team on the field and we're going to be in very good shape.

[Frisbetarian]

The 2012 Red Sox now are tied with Mike Scioscia's Angels for most successful sacrifice bunts (15) in the American League. Last night's 7th inning sacrifice combined with the removal of Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner was one of the more perplexing and frustrating examples of this (over)managing style. I don't have many complaints about Bobby Valentine, but these sacrifice bunts are driving me crazy. The Sox are the second highest scoring team in Major League Baseball, averaging almost 5.2 runs per game - enough with the bunts.

[Adrian's Dome]

The 2012 Red Sox now are tied with Mike Scioscia's Angels for most successful sacrifice bunts (15) in the American League. Last night's 7th inning sacrifice combined with the removal of Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner was one of the more perplexing and frustrating examples of this (over)managing style. I don't have many complaints about Bobby Valentine, but these sacrifice bunts are driving me crazy. The Sox are the second highest scoring team in Major League Baseball, averaging almost 5.2 runs per game - enough with the bunts.

Agreed. It's one thing if your best hitters are coming up and you can rely on them at least sending one to the OF to score the run and tie the game, but with Marlon Byrd on deck?

With any hope moves like that are more a function of Valentine not having a lot of faith in Byrd/DMac and not a situational belief. With Jacoby, Crawford, Kalish, or Nava in the fold instead of those two, does he pull the same move?

Edited by Adrian's Dome, 07 June 2012 - 07:38 AM.

[glennhoffmania]

With any hope moves like that are more a function of Valentine not having a lot of faith in Byrd/DMac and not a situational belief. With Jacoby, Crawford, Kalish, or Nava in the fold instead of those two, does he pull the same move?

I don't see why not. The move made no sense in any way and it's infuriating to watch. The tying run is in scoring position and instead of taking three cracks at driving him in he gives up an out. I'd love to know what Ben thinks of these decisions and if he's expressing his opinions to Bobby.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I can see sacrificing with Darnell if a good hitter was following him. Marlon Byrd is not a good hitter.

Bunting, with the added move of removing Adrian (who, regardless of his recent struggles, is a damn good hitter) for the duration of the game in the 7th inning, is inexplicable and indefensible.

That's all quite apart from looking at the results. Which of course didn't work. At all.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I wouldn't put a ton of stock in the Sox having 15 sac's this year (the Rangers have 12, for example, 8 of them by Andrus who has an OBP over 380). While the Sox offense is good, overall, they also have a lot of lousy hitters.

Podsednik- 4
Aviles- 3
Shoppach- 2
Punto- 2
Byrd-1
Sweeney-1
McDonald-1
Lester- 1

I think the relatively high # of bunts is a result of injury and personnel.

[Toe Nash]

The 2012 Red Sox now are tied with Mike Scioscia's Angels for most successful sacrifice bunts (15) in the American League.

But they're 6th in sac bunts attempted. They have a high success rate (15/17) which is why they're tied for first in successful bunts.

The bunt in question was an awful decision, and with such a good offense certainly 6th is too high (and even last place Cleveland with 8 probably had some bunts that weren't advisable mathematically), but it's not as bad as you're making it out to be.

LAA is 15/28 (54%) and the brilliantly-managed, fundamentally sound Rays are just 10/20.

[Jinhocho]

All this stuff about bullpen usage would make more sense if Melancon were back up here and Bard was being prepped to return to the pen ASAP.

[Cumberland Blues]

So, against a lefty he took the bat out of the hands of the guy who had the only XBH in the game and who's only redeeming quality is that he he doesn't suck against lefties, so that the #9 hitter could try and hit a sac fly. All while taking out a good hitter who you'll need to hit in the 9th if you don't get 2 runs. So, he reduced the likelihood of scoring 2 runs, removed the guy you need if you don't score 2, and took the bat out of the hands of the guy more likely to succeed than the guy he left the RBI opp too - that's a whole lotta bad managing rolled into those two decisions. And Don & Jerry were all on about how smart running for Adrian was because he would've been out on the bunt attempt. Well no...he shouldn't have been bunting in the first place and Pods should've been out too, Chen had plenty of time to go to 3rd.

[lexrageorge]

First, with regards to sacrifice attempts: I echo the comments that I wouldn't read too much into the number of sacrifice hits or even attempts at this point in the season. For one, even at 17 attempts, that is still less than 1% of all plate appearances, so there will likely be significant bumps in the data due to sample size affects, even in September.

Also, Boston is 4th in AL in OBP. One theory (getting off topic a bit) is that teams with a higher OBP would have more opportunites to sacrifice. Looking at the 3 teams that have a higher OBP, we get:

Texas: 20 attempts
NYY: 13
Cleveland: 8

Oh well, so much for that theory (it had promise after I looked at Texas). But I'm not convinced there's a significant difference between New York's 13 and Boston's 17, given the small sample size we have to work with. Also, the 2 teams after Boston in OBP, Detroit has 14 attempts and the White Sox have 18. So, maybe there's some shred of truth in there.

This is not defending Valentine. I would argue (and some here would disagree) that if Valentine was playing for one run, then the bunt and pinch running would be statistically justified. But the game situation was still too early to play for the single run, IMO. It was the 7th, not the 9th, and the extra runs would have come in handy. As bad as McDonald has been at the plate, he's still less likely to GIDP than the average MLB hitter (9% vs. 11%).

[David Laurila]

Last night's 7th inning sacrifice combined with the removal of Adrian Gonzalez for a pinch runner was one of the more perplexing and frustrating examples of this (over)managing style

Four times this year, Valentine has made an in-game move that resulted in Punto or Podsednik hitting instead of Gonzalez or Middlebrooks with the team down a run in either the 8th or 9th inning.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Four times this year, Valentine has made an in-game move that resulted in Punto or Podsednik hitting instead of Gonzalez or Middlebrooks with the team down a run in either the 8th or 9th inning.

It's almost as if he doesn't learn from prior experiences!

The 7th struck me as far too early a time to execute a strategy of sacrifice and pulling one of your best hitters at the same time.