730 replies to this topic

[Plympton91]

If Valentine had the 2004 roster, or the 2007 roster, he could make some of his questionable moves and the team would be fine. He doesn't have those rosters..

If Valentine had the 2004 or 2007 roster, the moves he's making wouldn't be all that questionable. That's why you can't separate the quality of the options from the quality of the decision-making process. In 2004, you could have ordered the starting 9 any way you wanted to and been able to defend it. In the 8th inning of a game in 2004, you could got to any of Timlin, Embree, or Foulke and defend it, regardless of the situation -- Do people really not understand the gulf in talent, sustained success, and experience between those three and even the best case scenario of Melancon, Morales, and Bailey?

What JakeRae is basically asking people to do is look at the splits of the hitters and pitchers and decide whether Valentine went to the option that minimized the probability of an adverse outcome ON PAPER, IN APRIL. The defense for what Valentine not using that objective function is that his task is figure out, fairly quickly, who his best pitchers are going to be IN THE PRESSURE COOKER OF OCTOBER.

Further, that job is made more complicated by a full 40-man roster, the very similar track records of a whole bunch of pitchers who have no minor league options, and the need to sort them out quickly before Hill and Matsuzaka and Cook and Miller need to be activated. If you don't accumulate information on the dreck, in order to figure out which dreck is slight less dreck, then you very probably will lose the wrong players when the time comes to waive somebody, or, in this case, 4 somebodys, before Memorial Day. For instance, Miller and Morales have incredibly similar tools and more similar production to date than some want to admit, while Thomas has good minor league splits. Before I jettison Thomas for Miller, who's frighteningly wild and inconsistent but has more upside, I want to see if Thomas can be a reliable loogy who doesn't threaten to walk 25 percent of the batters he faces--If Thomas is marginal but reliably marginal, maybe that's better than Miller's upside with a heavy downside. But, if I like Thomas, then before I waive Miller, I want to see if I'm getting at least the Boston 2011 version of Morales, or if I'm getting the version of Morales that Colorado waived because he looked a lot like Miller. And Morales, like Miller, also has upside, so I want to see if he can be more than what I saw in Boston last year.

And, for all the bowing done around here to major league equivalents (I think they're fine for hitters), they're just not that great for relievers. You can't decide that Justin Thomas will get major league lefties out because he got minor league lefties out -- the key difference between major league lefties and minor league lefties is that those minor leaguers are often helpless against lefthanders. A good AAA loogie is not necessarily going to be productive in the majors, but watching him in the minors or spring training is not going to give you any additional information. So, because you can't stash any of these guys in AAA (even though Thomas has an option, the 40-man roster is full), put someone else on the major league roster, and then wait around day after day for the perfect opportunitiees to use the guy in the majors and see what he's capable of, you have to make what spreadsheet readers call "suboptimal decisions." Given that the Red Sox are desperate for anything resembling quality and time constrained in their decision making, it may make sense to let Thomas face a righthander if the benefit is that you get to watch him against another lefthander -- as was the case in one of the instances people are pointing to as a "mistake."

The lack of good options, and the lack of obvious separation in talent between the bad options, means that "optimizing" in April entails maybe sacrificing wins now to end up with the best of a bad lot in September. If you have good options or clear bad options, you don't have to do that. That's why, again, the composition and quality of the roster is intertwined with the assessment of the decision-making process.

Edited by Plympton91, 22 April 2012 - 08:44 AM.

[Rooster Crows]

While it is true that Valentine is not responsible for the bullpen tools he has - I think it is also true that he is not using them as effectively as he could. FWIW, NYPost had an article on Girardi's use of his pen which, over the past few years has not exactly been top of the line either. Granted, having Mo gives him an edge on the back end, but it seems he's been able to manage his mediocrity so at least they don't regularly hurt the team and to get some surprisingly good performances out of them.

Over the past four-plus seasons, Girardi has overseen strong campaigns from relievers such as Brian Bruney and Cory Wade, Luis Ayala and Jose Veras, Boone Logan and Edwar Ramirez. Dan Giese had a shining moment for Girardi and — following a trade — Kerry Wood pitched better than he ever had as a reliever. Alfredo Aceves and David Robertson both blossomed under Girardi, and Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes both contributed significantly out of the pen.. . . . .But in 2008, Girardi coaxed a strong setup season from Kyle Farnsworth, something Joe Torre had failed to do in the previous two years. Hughes pitched Rivera-like as a setup man in 2009, Wood was brilliant in his 2010 cameo, and Ayala, Wade, Hector Noesi and Logan were all big contributors last season.. . . .Girardi’s two strengths reside in when he uses his relievers and how often. His contrast to Torre in usage patterns is stark.

http://www.nypost.co...wClaYfhgATnFN/1

Edited by Rooster Crows, 22 April 2012 - 10:56 AM.

[aron7awol]

Valentine's platoon reliever usage so far:
Atchison has faced 25 RHB, 14 LHB: 1.79:1 ratio
Padilla has faced 22 RHB, 13 LHB: 1.69:1 ratio
Morales has faced 8 LHB, 20 RHB: 1:2.50 ratio (!)
Thomas has faced 10 LHB, 13 RHB: 1:1.30 ratio (!)
Albers has faced 15 RHB, 5 LHB: 3.00:1 ratio

For guys like the 5 above who have significant platoon splits, I'd expect to see a 2:1 ratio or better. Obviously garbage time appearances can screw the ratios up a bit. Still, only Albers has been used optimally platoon-wise. The fact that Morales and Thomas have actually faced mostly RHB is idiotic.

[86spike]

Valentine's platoon reliever usage so far:
Atchison has faced 25 RHB, 14 LHB: 1.79:1 ratio
Padilla has faced 22 RHB, 13 LHB: 1.69:1 ratio
Morales has faced 8 LHB, 20 RHB: 1:2.50 ratio (!)
Thomas has faced 10 LHB, 13 RHB: 1:1.30 ratio (!)
Albers has faced 15 RHB, 5 LHB: 3.00:1 ratio

For guys like the 5 above who have significant platoon splits, I'd expect to see a 2:1 ratio or better. Obviously garbage time appearances can screw the ratios up a bit. Still, only Albers has been used optimally platoon-wise. The fact that Morales and Thomas have actually faced mostly RHB is idiotic.

If 5 of your 7 RPs can't get opposite batters out, how the hell are you supposed to get 9-15 outs from them every night?

[aron7awol]

If 5 of your 7 RPs can't get opposite batters out, how the hell are you supposed to get 9-15 outs from them every night?

I'm not suggesting that you use everyone as a LOOGY/ROOGY, but there's no way Morales and Thomas should have faced 33 RHB and 18 LHB combined when the pen is full of RH relievers.

[tonyarmasjr]

Valentine's platoon reliever usage so far:
Atchison has faced 25 RHB, 14 LHB: 1.79:1 ratio
Padilla has faced 22 RHB, 13 LHB: 1.69:1 ratio
Morales has faced 8 LHB, 20 RHB: 1:2.50 ratio (!)
Thomas has faced 10 LHB, 13 RHB: 1:1.30 ratio (!)
Albers has faced 15 RHB, 5 LHB: 3.00:1 ratio

For guys like the 5 above who have significant platoon splits, I'd expect to see a 2:1 ratio or better. Obviously garbage time appearances can screw the ratios up a bit. Still, only Albers has been used optimally platoon-wise. The fact that Morales and Thomas have actually faced mostly RHB is idiotic.

That's just silly. I knew he wasn't using them well, but hadn't looked at the numbers. It's the beginning of the season, and I'm sure he's still trying to figure out just what he has. But even my wife knows righties hit lefties better and vice versa. Especially with a guy like Thomas, whom you know is trash, you're just asking for him to get punished.

[kieckeredinthehead]

Valentine's platoon reliever usage so far:
Atchison has faced 25 RHB, 14 LHB: 1.79:1 ratio
Padilla has faced 22 RHB, 13 LHB: 1.69:1 ratio
Morales has faced 8 LHB, 20 RHB: 1:2.50 ratio (!)
Thomas has faced 10 LHB, 13 RHB: 1:1.30 ratio (!)
Albers has faced 15 RHB, 5 LHB: 3.00:1 ratio

For guys like the 5 above who have significant platoon splits, I'd expect to see a 2:1 ratio or better. Obviously garbage time appearances can screw the ratios up a bit. Still, only Albers has been used optimally platoon-wise. The fact that Morales and Thomas have actually faced mostly RHB is idiotic.

These ratios and your expectations are based on the assumption that the ratio of left- to right-handed batters is 1:1, and that there are no switch-hitters.

[lexrageorge]

The Morales stats are a bit skewed by the times he was asked to play the role of setup reliever. In the 13-12 debacle at Detroit, Morales faced 7 batters, 5 of them RHB's. But it was an extra innings situation on the road, and Morales was the best option to pitch those 2 innings (which he did quite well, striking out 3 of the 7 batters).

He faced 8 Rays batters in 2 consecutive games, 6 RHB, 2 LHB. Again, he did the job. There's not much choice really; Morales was being used as their defacto setup guy after Melancon crapped the bed. Take out those 3 games and you get 9 RHB, 5 LHB, which is much closer to the "ideal" situation with regards to platoon splits.

11 of the 23 batters Thomas faced were in blowout losses in which the game was essentially decided, so you can throw those 3 games out the window (I consider the 8th inning of the 6-2 loss to the Yankees a blowout for this analysis). I'll actually throw out the latest Yankees debacle, just because the usage of Justin Thomas was hardly a contributing factor to the loss. That leaves 2 games worth looking at:

Toronto: 3 LHB, 2 RHB
Tampa: 3 LHB, 1 RHB (a switch hitter, actually)

EDIT: For the most part, I considered switch hitters to be RHB's in the above. But 2 of the Rays batters were switch hitters (Zobrist and Johnson), which guarantees the "wrong" split anyway.

Edited by lexrageorge, 22 April 2012 - 03:09 PM.

[Pumpsie]

When it comes to bullpen usage, it's always good to keep in mind that in most of the games that Tito managed in the last several years, he was managing seven-inning games because he knew he had Bard in the 8th and Papelbon in the 9th. And if his starter went seven, he didn't even have a single decision to make. Most days he only had to figure out which pitcher was going to get the 7th. He could always warm up a lefty and righty and he was ready.

Valentine, OTOH, has a total shitshow for a bullpen, and when his starter goes only three or so innings has to pull all the right levers for the next six innings to manage a win. It's proven to be an impossible task, because in trying to get this pen through six innings you're going to hit at least one pitcher who is going to be going to the mound with a tanker full of kerosene.

On Saturday, this bullpen only had to get nine lousy outs before giving up nine runs but gave up 15 runs before getting that ninth out. It just doesn't get any worse than that. When David Ortiz was saying that Saturday's loss was "fucking embarrassing," he was talking about the bullpen. NO manager can win consistently with a bullpen that performs this badly. It's like playing Russian Roulette with four bullets in six chambers.

[aron7awol]

These ratios and your expectations are based on the assumption that the ratio of left- to right-handed batters is 1:1, and that there are no switch-hitters.

No, I didn't make those assumptions, I just didn't want to actually go through all the gamelogs for these guys. I acknowledge that switch hitters will lower the ratios since someone is going to have to face the wrong side of their platoon. Ideally that person should be someone with a mild or reverse platoon split.

The Morales stats are a bit skewed by the times he was asked to play the role of setup reliever. In the 13-12 debacle at Detroit, Morales faced 7 batters, 5 of them RHB's. But it was an extra innings situation on the road, and Morales was the best option to pitch those 2 innings (which he did quite well, striking out 3 of the 7 batters).

He faced 8 Rays batters in 2 consecutive games, 6 RHB, 2 LHB. Again, he did the job. There's not much choice really; Morales was being used as their defacto setup guy after Melancon crapped the bed. Take out those 3 games and you get 9 RHB, 5 LHB, which is much closer to the "ideal" situation with regards to platoon splits.

11 of the 23 batters Thomas faced were in blowout losses in which the game was essentially decided, so you can throw those 3 games out the window (I consider the 8th inning of the 6-2 loss to the Yankees a blowout for this analysis). I'll actually throw out the latest Yankees debacle, just because the usage of Justin Thomas was hardly a contributing factor to the loss. That leaves 2 games worth looking at:

Toronto: 3 LHB, 2 RHB
Tampa: 3 LHB, 1 RHB (a switch hitter, actually)

EDIT: For the most part, I considered switch hitters to be RHB's in the above. But 2 of the Rays batters were switch hitters (Zobrist and Johnson), which guarantees the "wrong" split anyway.

Thanks for taking the time to do what I was too lazy to do and actually look at the game logs. The garbage time stats should definitely be thrown out. However, I'm not willing to give Bobby a pass for Morales simply because he was being used as the setup man. The one benefit to having a bullpen full of unproven guys is you can actually get away with doing a closer by committee or at least setup man by committee. I understood throwing Aceves a bone with the closer role, even though I fully expected him to turn into a pumpkin and fail; it's certainly possible he could have seized the moment and succeeded for some period of time. However, there was no reason to do that with the setup role, so for that I blame Bobby. Now that Aceves is starting to show that he isn't the BABIP god many people think he is, maybe it's time to give closer (and setup man) by committee a try.

Aceves BABIP Watch: .500

[86spike]

You simply cannot run a bullpen by using every pitcher as an OOGY until you get to your closer. You especially can't so it when your starters are only getting through 5-6 innings each game.

You can't use 5 different pitchers to get you 6-9 outs each night because they can't all pitch in every game and need rest. They're not robots, they're humans who cannot be abused.

Not to mention, our RPs have been giving up a lot of hits, so even if you start an inning hoping your LHP will face LHB, RHB, LHB that are due up, letting any of those guys get on base destroys the plan and you have to either yank them and burn another RP, or roll with it and hope the player can rise to the occasion.

The team's awful pitching has taken away the luxury of going by matchups.

[kieckeredinthehead]

No, I didn't make those assumptions, I just didn't want to actually go through all the gamelogs for these guys. I acknowledge that switch hitters will lower the ratios since someone is going to have to face the wrong side of their platoon. Ideally that person should be someone with a mild or reverse platoon split.

Last year, the AL had 86,425 PA; 42,408 by righties, 30,262 by lefties and 13,755 by switch hitters. So over the long-term, the expected ratios for a right-handed pitcher would be about 1:1 for righties:lefties faced. For left-handed pitchers, the ratio's going to be 1.86:1 righties:lefties. That's just by random, assuming that all switch hitters will bat right-handed against left-handed pitchers. That's before a manager pinch-hits to take advantage of a split. So I'm not sure what you were exclaiming about Thomas for, when his ratio is skewed towards left-handed batters. You said you wanted a 2:1 split. It's unrealistic unless you are switching them out after every batter.

[OttoC]

To expand upon kieckeredinthehead's post about batter and pitcher handedness for 2011 (using Retrosheet Event Files)--

There were a few situations when the batter's handedness did not take advantage of the pitcher, i.e., a switch-hitter chose not to switch or a non-switch-hitter chose to switch. They are listed along with their preferred batting hand..

Bats = player's listed batting hand
Batted = player actually batted

Additionally, RHPs saw 3918 pinch-hitters (BR: 1414, BL: 2096, BB: 408) and LHPs saw 1287 pinc-hitters (BR: 874, BL: 237, BB: 176)

PA	Bats
185245	All
98256	R
60669	L
26320	B
PA	Batted
105618	R
79627	L
PA	Pitcher
135681	R
49564	L
PA	BT	Switch	R	L
70595	RR	86	70506	3	Tom Gorzelanny (BL)
35023	RL	7272	27749	2	Tom Gorzelanny (BL)
14541	LL	4	0	14537	Pablo Sandoval (BB)
65086	LR	18958	1	46127	Brett Myers (BR)

[lexrageorge]

Thanks for taking the time to do what I was too lazy to do and actually look at the game logs. The garbage time stats should definitely be thrown out. However, I'm not willing to give Bobby a pass for Morales simply because he was being used as the setup man. The one benefit to having a bullpen full of unproven guys is you can actually get away with doing a closer by committee or at least setup man by committee. I understood throwing Aceves a bone with the closer role, even though I fully expected him to turn into a pumpkin and fail; it's certainly possible he could have seized the moment and succeeded for some period of time. However, there was no reason to do that with the setup role, so for that I blame Bobby. Now that Aceves is starting to show that he isn't the BABIP god many people think he is, maybe it's time to give closer (and setup man) by committee a try.

Aceves BABIP Watch: .500

I don't understand your criticism here. In the Detroit game, Valentine needed 2 innings after Aceves blew up. Morales was really their best option for those 2 innings. After he showed he was able to get the Detroit RHB hitters out, it made sense to give Morales a shot at pitching the 8th in both TB games, games which were Sox victories, btw. This was a very smart use of Morales; Melancon had done nothing to inspire confidence in his appearances.

Aceves as closer is certainly a failed experiment. He arguably earned the title after a strong spring and a prior track record of success in relief (albeit a small sample). It's time to move on from that; but to do that, someone in the bullpen has to show some level of competence in getting out both RHB's and LHB's. Lefties have a 0.563 OPS against Papelbon in his career. You can't use every pitcher in a platoon split situation; the typical use of the LOOGY is to get the one or two batters out in innings 6 through 8; but you really can't afford to have more than 1 or 2 of those guys; the other pitchers have to face batters from both sides of the plate. That's especially true when your crappy starters are only a shade better than your horrific bullpen, which has been the case so far this season for the Sox.

[JimBoSox9]

Bobby had his finest night in a Sox uniform tonight. Sticking with Lester paid off. Bullpen moves worked, with an overdue assist by BABIP. Absolutely loved him going out to the mound, cracking a joke, and leaving Aceves in.

When the logical moves, one mind game, and good results all combine, the manager had himself a banner night.

[dynomite]

Did Bobby ever explain why he didn't just put Bard in to start the 8th? I thought that was the plan all along?

Because Mauer (L) and Morneau (L) were coming up, and he wanted a LHP to face them. That's why he left Morales to face Mauer even after Carroll doubled and got to 3rd on Sweeney's error.

Edit:

Lost in all of this is that Bard came within about an inch of blowing the lead. Gave up a bullet to Youks and a blooper that nearly fell behind Aviles. It's a fine line between hero and goat; can you imagine the reaction over Bard's temporary role had one of those fallen in?

The life of a manager in 2 batters, I'd say.

This is such a wonderful point that I wanted to quote it for emphasis.

Managers play percentages and hope for the best.

Edited by dynomite, 24 April 2012 - 10:19 AM.

[EddieYost]

Because Mauer (L) and Morneau (L) were coming up, and he wanted a LHP to face them. That's why he left Morales to face Mauer even after Carroll doubled and got to 3rd on Sweeney's error. Edit: This is such a wonderful point that I wanted to quote it for emphasis. Managers play percentages and hope for the best.

Doesn't make sense to me. It was a R-L-R-L inning. It ended up working out OK, but I don't really understand bringing in Morales in that situation when you have (theoretically) your best reliever available temporarily.

[Sprowl]

Splitting out from the Blaming Bobby thread...

This thread is for rational discussion of the team manager's decisions. If you want space to rant about evil Bobby V, P&G was designed with that purpose in mind.

[PaulinMyrBch]

I agree with locking the Blame thread, but can we at least rename this one "Grady Little isn't walking through that door"

[YTF]

I agree with locking the Blame thread, but can we at least rename this one "Grady Little isn't walking through that door"

When I saw the topic of this thread I was thinking it was Jimy Williams related.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Granted, having Mo gives him an edge on the back end, but it seems he's been able to manage his mediocrity so at least they don't regularly hurt the team and to get some surprisingly good performances out of them.

Isn't this kind of like saying, having Kobe gives the Lakers an edge on the back-end?

One of the criticisms of the Jamesian "bullpen ace" concept is that bullpen pitchers like to have structure - they like to know who is closing, who is setting up, and who is, well, not setting up.

I have heard this sentiment echoed by multiple ex-ballplayers and executives.

While I understand that this could be something like sliding into first base, I wonder if anyone has taken a closer look at this. Not even sure how one would go about looking at it, but then again, there are lots of people smarter than me.

[Andrew]

The original Red Sox lineup had Darnell McDonald playing left field, Kelly Shoppach catching, and David Ortiz hitting sixth. Seemed a little strange given that the Twins were starting a righthander.

Then, after a while, bench coach Tim Bogar posted a new lineup. Ryan Sweeney was back in there, as was Jarrod Saltalamacchia. And Ortiz was hitting fifth.

"The one that was posted was for the lefthander that I thought was pitching today,” Valentine admitted with a hearty laugh.

Salty caught the mistake.

[EddieYost]

When I saw the topic of this thread I was thinking it was Jimy Williams related.

Me too.

If a frog had wings it wouldn't bump it's booty when it jumped.

[Plympton91]

What the hell?

This is indefensible here in the 6th. Leaves [I am an Idiot] in to face Carroll, goes to Atchison on Mauer, and the Thomas for Morneau?

Totally unprepared to respond despite Buchholz struggling all night and approaching 100 pitches.

Terrible.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Really inexcusable. Is Morales unavailable for some reason? Baffling series of events.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

What the hell?

This is indefensible here in the 6th. Leaves [I am an Idiot] in to face Carroll, goes to Atchison on Mauer, and the Thomas for Morneau?

Totally unprepared to respond despite Buchholz struggling all night and approaching 100 pitches.

Terrible.

Between this and handing in the wrong lineup card because he thought the Twins were starting a lefty, I wonder if Bobby was out late last night or something. Very strange.

[mabrowndog]

His inexplicable affection for Justin Thomas boggles the mind.

Look, I get the whole "platoon advantage" thing. Atchison's got 3-year splits of .289/.351/.467 vs LHP and .238/.283/.370 vs RHP. But this season he's retired 14 of the 18 lefties he's faced with 5 Ks. The hit he gave up tonight after Buchholz left him a bases-loaded jam was a DP ball up the middle (it was headed right toward Aviles) that ricocheted off his leg into left-center. Atchison's curve and cutter have been his best pitches, and they're what Morneau has had the most struggles with since his concussion. I have no earthly idea how one looks at the situation and and decides Justin effing Thomas is the better option to face Morneau.

I mean, if you're that hung up on having a lefty pitch in that spot, why not Morales as Rudy suggests? Sure enough, he's got him in there to face Morneau now in the 8th.

Edited by mabrowndog, 25 April 2012 - 10:20 PM.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

What the hell?

Terrible.

Really inexcusable.

A-a-a-a-nd this about sums it up.

Between the lineup card and Atchison, the Sox should have lost this game. Fortunately, Salty reminded him it wasn't Mark Hendrickson -- up and coming LHP for Toronto in 1992 -- they were facing, and somehow the offense bails them out with just enough runs to get WTFClay Buchholz the win.

Should have been a 7-3, or 7-4 at the very worst, game.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Yeah, I don't get why you let Atchison face Mauer, but not Morneau...unless it's simply a case of Thomas not being ready quickly enough. But then you've wasted Atchison (and I also don't know why he replaced Albers with Padilla). The pen sucks, but why burn guys so quickly? I think he left Buchholz in too long b/c he doesn't trust his relievers, but the tired starter always ends up walking a few batters, and then you've got the crappy relievers in even tougher situations.

An effective RIch Hill would really help things, I think. A second lefty is really necessary given the splits on this staff, but Thomas clearly isn't up to the challenge. Finding a RH who can get strikeouts would be nice too.

(And I'm still of the opinion that Atchison would be the best guy to close right now, with Aceves back to the role he thrived in. Anyone with me? Anyone?)

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 25 April 2012 - 10:56 PM.

[Rasputin]

Yeah, I don't get why you let Atchison face Mauer, but not Morneau...unless it's simply a case of Thomas not being ready quickly enough.

Buncha runners on base, lefties coming up...use your best lefty. It aint Atchison and it aint Thomas.

An effective RIch Hill would really help things, I think. A second lefty is really necessary given the splits on this staff, but Thomas clearly isn't up to the challenge. Finding a RH who can get strikeouts would be nice too.

Yeah, gimme Hill, don't bury Tazawa and hey, whaddaya know, we have a handful of guys who can do their jobs pretty well. It's not a lock down 'pen by any means but it's not terrible.

(And I'm still of the opinion that Atchison would be the best guy to close right now, with Aceves back to the role he thrived in. Anyone with me? Anyone?)

I'm game.

[czar]

Buchholz was clearly laboring after his velocity (which normally trends up and then levels off) peaked in the 3rd inning and started falling back to the 90-91-92 range after that. I was actually shocked that no one was up when he hit 100 pitches and then doubly shocked when the only person Valentine got up was Atchison with Mauer and Morneau almost certain to get to the plate that inning.

In fact, I actually sat back and had to think if Morales threw like 2 IP last night (it was actually Atchison which makes this doubly amusing) because I couldn't fathom him not being up at that point and figured Valentine had a reason I wasn't thinking of. It's really indefensible.

(And I'm still of the opinion that Atchison would be the best guy to close right now, with Aceves back to the role he thrived in. Anyone with me? Anyone?)

Yes. Of course, I'd be perfectly content with calling Melancon back up tomorrow and sticking him at the back end of the bullpen, that's how little I think of the Aceves/closer experiment.

[Sprowl]

Atchison is not closer material. Don't go there. It's not sane or rational thinking.

How bad a decision was bringing in Atchison to face Mauer? Fükken awful.

Mauer slaughters RHP: career OPS .937 vs RHP; .753 vs LHP.
Atchison suffers against LHB: career OPS .773; .694 vs RHB.

but Mauer has faced Atchison twice, striking out twice!

So sayeth Bobby the Fifth, King of Small Samples.


Between the lineup snafu and the mid-inning matchup mismanagement, I am beginning to think that the manager is going senile. I halfway regret closing the Blaming Bobby thread, because tonight's game was tailor-made for it.

[czar]

Atchison is not closer material. Don't go there. It's not sane or rational thinking.

I generally agree and think that was mostly hyperbole on RP's part, but (and not to turn this into a "who should close" thread) Atchison has a better three-year-running* K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HB, and (insert any other peripheral here) than Aceves. Gun to my head and I had the choice between the two to get three outs; it's not Alfredo. He (Atch) is actually pretty underrated by the fanbase (and sometimes the manager) as a relief option.

That or the rest of the bullpen is (ex: Bobby V's Justin Thomas usage) pretty overrated. Pick your poison.

*The only reason I use 3-year-running is b/c Aceves actually did edge Atchison in K/9 last year-- although his >2x BB rate wiped that out and then some in their K/BB so I guess it still holds.

Edited by czar, 25 April 2012 - 11:45 PM.

[Sprowl]

I generally agree and think that was mostly hyperbole on RP's part, but (and not to turn this into a "who should close" thread) Atchison has a better three-year-running* K/9, BB/9, K/BB, HB, and (insert any other peripheral here) than Aceves. Gun to my head and I had the choice between the two to get three outs; it's not Alfredo. He (Atch) is actually pretty underrated by the fanbase (and sometimes the manager) as a relief option.

That or the rest of the bullpen is (ex: Bobby V's Justin Thomas usage) pretty overrated. Pick your poison.

*The only reason I use 3-year-running is b/c Aceves actually did edge Atchison in K/9 last year-- although his >2x BB rate wiped that out and then some in their K/BB so I guess it still holds.

I think that the stronger reason for not using Atchison as a closer is that his platoon split is significant, he has performed more poorly in hi-leverage situations (OPS .843) and in late and close situations (OPS .852), and he is extremely vulnerable to LHB -- we haven't seen just how much so because he has been protected from pitching in such situations, but his slider will not fool lefties consistently. His whiff rate with the Red Sox is only 7%, and if he faces lefties consistently, that figure will drop very fast.

Aceves, in contrast, pitches equally well against lefties and righties, has historically done well in hi-lev situations (OPS .525), and his whiff rate, while not high, exceeds Atchison's.

Aceves is not a good closer. Atchison is not a closer, period.

[mauidano]

Aceves, in contrast, pitches equally well against lefties and righties, has historically done well in hi-lev situations (OPS .525), and his whiff rate, while not high, exceeds Atchison's.

Aceves is not a good closer. Atchison is not a closer, period.

Ace has got the balls for it though. He never looks flustered. For the time being though, he's our guy like it or not. You're not changing your stance on Bard as a starter I hope. I really like him as a starter.

[Rasputin]

Aceves is not a good closer. Atchison is not a closer, period.

While I don't disagree, I would suggest that none of the guys currently on the roster ARE good closers.

If we could have a good closer, we could use Padilla and Morales as the 7th, 8th matchup guys, Hill strictly as LOOGY, Tazawa when need arises, and both Aceves and Atchison could be used for multiple inning stints when guys only go five and we wouldn't be in terrible shape.

I guess what I am saying is Melancon can kiss my ass.

[Rasputin]

Ace has got the balls for it though. He never looks flustered. For the time being though, he's our guy like it or not. You're not changing your stance on Bard as a starter I hope. I really like him as a starter.

Balls only matter when the talent is there. Balls don't add to talent, lack of them subtracts from it.

[Sprowl]

Ace has got the balls for it though. He never looks flustered. For the time being though, he's our guy like it or not. You're not changing your stance on Bard as a starter I hope. I really like him as a starter.

With Ellsbury on the shelf for six weeks and even money to miss the rest of the 2012 season, Crawford pushed back, and back, and back, Bailey unavailable until August, Melancon suffering from shell-shock, and a roster replete with mediocrities, I don't want the Red Sox sacrificing the long term for the short term.

Start Bard, and don't stop.

[MikeM]

With Ellsbury on the shelf for six weeks and even money to miss the rest of the 2012 season, Crawford pushed back, and back, and back, Bailey unavailable until August, Melancon suffering from shell-shock, and a roster replete with mediocrities, I don't want the Red Sox sacrificing the long term for the short term.

Start Bard, and don't stop.

.573 ball from here on out puts this team at 90 wins, and at a virtual lock to be playing in that 1 game elimination. Win that, and it's off to Fenway for the first 2 games in a best of 5.

Keeping Bard in the rotation is the smart play long term, no doubt. But if/when we beat the supposed odds in grinding out that 90, it's really, really going to suck watching our 2012 season end on a blown save/hit-batsman out of Aceves, while an over-his-innings-cap Bard watches from the non-playoff roster sideline.

I know i'm in the minority there, but just saying

[PaulinMyrBch]

When I saw the topic of this thread I was thinking it was Jimy Williams related.

I mixed those up. It was Jimy with managers decision the quote, Grady with managers decision the move, Pedro edition.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Aceves is the only reliever who is effective against both RH and LH, and he's clearly not effective as a closer. He walks and hits too many, and whiffs too few.

I think he's better suited to 2 inning stints and can avoid a lot of the matchup games the Sox have been forced to play.

I don't think Atchison would be a great closer, but I think he's the best fit given the current roster. Primary motivation would be getting Aceves back to his old role and hoping he is effective.

[Toe Nash]

.573 ball from here on out puts this team at 90 wins, and at a virtual lock to be playing in that 1 game elimination. Win that, and it's off to Fenway for the first 2 games in a best of 5.

In no way is 90 wins a virtual lock for one of the 2 WCs. Baseball Prospectus right now projects the Rangers for 95 wins and the Angels for 89 as a median projection. They project the Yankees at 93 wins and the Rays at 87. With that scenario, yes, 90 wins would get in, but it's far from a virtual lock.

There are at least 5 teams besides the Sox that have 90-win potential, and the Blue Jays have a shot too. We said this at the beginning of the year and I don't think anything has changed. 90 wins gives us a decent shot, but nowhere near a lock.

[Plympton91]

There are at least 5 teams besides the Sox that have 90-win potential, and the Blue Jays have a shot too. We said this at the beginning of the year and I don't think anything has changed. 90 wins gives us a decent shot, but nowhere near a lock.

The more teams there are that have 90-win potential, the less likely it is that any one of those teams actually exceeds 90 wins by a material amount. At some point, because the 7 good teams (NY, Tex, Det, Bos, TB, LA, Tor) end up playing each other so much, their records become a zero sum game -- a win for one is a loss for the other, making the records of the 4th place and below teams worse. The danger is that the unbalanced schedule ends up sticking NY, Bost, Tor, and TB with the bulk of that regression toward .500, boosting LA's chances of securing one of the wild cards even if they're the 7th best team.

[glennhoffmania]

I was hoping that Bobby, being smarter than everyone else, might deviate from the whole assigning a pitcher to an inning concept. Last night, bringing in Thomas instead of Morales in that spot was just awful managing. That was the key point in the game and it almost cost them a win. I didn't know about the lineup card incident until this morning, but between that and the Thomas/Morales decision it wasn't a good night for Bobby.

[Toe Nash]

The more teams there are that have 90-win potential, the less likely it is that any one of those teams actually exceeds 90 wins by a material amount. At some point, because the 7 good teams (NY, Tex, Det, Bos, TB, LA, Tor) end up playing each other so much, their records become a zero sum game -- a win for one is a loss for the other, making the records of the 4th place and below teams worse. The danger is that the unbalanced schedule ends up sticking NY, Bost, Tor, and TB with the bulk of that regression toward .500, boosting LA's chances of securing one of the wild cards even if they're the 7th best team.

Yeah, but they can also beat up on the NL and on the Twins, A's, Mariners, Royals, all of whom look worse than we expected (so far). I wouldn't be surprised if all the WCs had 92+ wins.

You're right about the unbalanced schedule. Sox should hope that the Jays aren't for real or that the Orioles fall off.

[Cumberland Blues]

The 6th inning progressed like Bobby was completely surprised to find two LHH mashers in the middle of the Twins lineup - Thomas did not even start throwing until the Carroll AB - there's no way he was ready for Mauer. And given that the Mauer AB was only 3 pitches, he probably wasn't ready for Morneau either (not that I'm optimistic on Thomas' chances there even if he is ready). But if Atchison comes in for Carroll - that ptching change gives the lefty time to get ready since Bobby apparently never read the Twins lineup card - hell, he doesn't read his own apparently, why should he read the other one?

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The 6th inning progressed like Bobby was completely surprised to find two LHH mashers in the middle of the Twins lineup - Thomas did not even start throwing until the Carroll AB - there's no way he was ready for Mauer. And given that the Mauer AB was only 3 pitches, he probably wasn't ready for Morneau either (not that I'm optimistic on Thomas' chances there even if he is ready). But if Atchison comes in for Carroll - that ptching change gives the lefty time to get ready since Bobby apparently never read the Twins lineup card - hell, he doesn't read his own apparently, why should he read the other one?

It's odd, the major points of contention here after he was hired surrounded his personality and mouth; it was pretty universally accepted that he would be a good in-game manager as long as he could keep the clubhouse from revolting on him. But last night he seemed completely unprepared, which as much as I hate him took me by surprise as that's the one thing I thought he'd do well.

Did he have his WFAN interview yesterday?

[Doctor G]

Atchison does throw strikes and works quickly which are good attributes for a potential closer. His pace alone puts added pressure on the hitter. Aceves' pace and constant shake offs works against him.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Atchison does throw strikes and works quickly which are good attributes for a potential closer. His pace alone puts added pressure on the hitter. Aceves' pace and constant shake offs works against him.

Atchison is fine as a 6th/7th inning matchup guy, and I think he's the perfect option to work in long relief of Doubront or Lester. That's valuable to winning games, and he clearly should have a spot on the pen. And I'm glad he made the club.

But don't mistake his "thank god he isn't pouring on the gasoline" role the last three weeks for the mark of a regular 8th-9th inning arm. His pitches just don't work that well against LHH, nor does his stuff play up when it's close and late.

There's a reason Atchison's K/BB drops to ~1.5 and his OBP skies to .383 in hi-leverage situations, and that is because he's just a moderately good fastball-slider reliever. Leave him where he is in the middle relief muddle, because he's one of the few in the pen who has thus far more-often-than-not been used appropriately.

[trekfan55]

Atchison is fine as a 6th/7th inning matchup guy, and I think he's the perfect option to work in long relief of Doubront or Lester. That's valuable to winning games, and he clearly should have a spot on the pen. And I'm glad he made the club.

But don't mistake his "thank god he isn't pouring on the gasoline" role the last three weeks for the mark of a regular 8th-9th inning arm. His pitches just don't work that well against LHH, nor does his stuff play up when it's close and late.

There's a reason Atchison's K/BB drops to ~1.5 and his OBP skies to .383 in hi-leverage situations, and that is because he's just a moderately good fastball-slider reliever. Leave him where he is in the middle relief muddle, because he's one of the few in the pen who has thus far more-often-than-not been used appropriately.

Not to excuse Bobby because he should have a lefty ready for Mauer, but the hit Mauer got off him was the prime example of shitty luck. The ball was hit right at Aviles (who was positioned properly) and it would have been an inning ending DP. And we would all be saying that despite the result, Atchison should not have been facing Mauer.

He did save Morales for the 8th and it worked with a 123 inning. The problem is that he has 2 LHP in the pen, one is no good vs anyone though. It's like the final days of Javier Lopez (and Tito kept using him until the FO DFA'd him).

Edited by trekfan55, 26 April 2012 - 11:09 AM.