53 replies to this topic

[PrometheusWakefield]

Since this is clearly the mostly hotly debated topic of the young season, I'm interested in seeing how the sides actually line up on SOSH.

Note that this is a public poll. On this debate, there is no hiding behind anonymity; everyone must take a side.

[czar]

Rotation. Not even close.

Through 2 starts his K/9 is north of 10. Which is pretty exciting. But let's assume that it'll actually tail off from his career average of high 9's and project 8.75ish. Want a list of pitchers with K/9 >= 8.5 in 2011? Grienke, Morrow, Kershaw, A. Sanchez, Lee, Lincecum, Pineda, Gallardo, Verlander, Garza.

The worst pitcher on that list had an xFIP of 3.53 (Morrow/Pineda tied). Am I saying Daniel Bard will turn into one of those players? No, but he absolutely, 100% needs to get the shot to see what happens and not in 3 years when his arb clock is ticking.

Edited by czar, 24 April 2012 - 02:24 PM.

[Rasputin]

he absolutely, 100% needs to get the shot to see what happens and not in 3 years when his arb clock is ticking.

A good starting pitcher is more valuable than a good relief pitcher. Bard might not ever be a good starting pitcher but it shouldn't be because he wasn't given a chance.

[TheRealness]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

[Dogman2]

A good starting pitcher is more valuable than a good relief pitcher. Bard might not ever be a good starting pitcher but it shouldn't be because he wasn't given a chance.

I agree 100%. 60 innings of very good relief ace is not nearly as valuable as 175-200 innings of #4 starter numbers.

I feel dirty agreeing with you.

[Super Nomario]

I voted option 3. I'm skeptical that Bard is going to be a good starting pitcher, but given that the team has made the decision to give it a go I think they need to stick with it until they determine it is a success or failure. I do like skipping him when possible to keep his IP total down; I think ideally he makes like 22 starts and 10-12 relief appearances this year.

[Savin Hillbilly]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

It may be, though I'm not convinced yet that it is. All things being equal, I think he has the ability to be a better-than-average starter and would be more valuable in that role. For this team, right now, it's not clear that all things are equal.

It ultimately depends on whether the club thinks it has a realistic chance of competing for a championship this year. If they do, then it's a tough decision. If they don't, then I think they have to leave him in the rotation to develop as a starter as long as he seems reasonably effective there, and let the bullpen chips fall as they may.

[rembrat]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

Sure, if this were 1932 and Bard and someone else made up the entire bullpen. But the reality is that he isnt going to pitch out of the pen every day and him pitching 1 inning isn't going to prevent Morales from shitting his pants vs RHH, which happened last night, and it won't prevent Aceves from giving up a go-ahead HR, which he almost did last night.

The pen needs Bailey, Hill, and a good Melancon back, not Bard.

[trekfan55]

His statement about "making eight guys pitch better" while it may not be in the best of tastes, is like a cold splash of water to those who think he could fix the bullpen,

Let's take last night's game:

Lester lasted 7 innings (some think he was left one inning too long but he cruised in the 7th). So maybe Bard for the 8th helps. But what happens when the starter gets out in the 5th? He can only do one inning, 2 at most. What happens after he has pitched 2 days in a row? (something he is simply not able to do right now)

Bard will not fix the bullpen, but his impressive K/9 plus his impressive swing/miss percentage project him to be a good to excellent starting pitcher. So I say rotation.

Edited by trekfan55, 24 April 2012 - 02:44 PM.

[Jed Zeppelin]

It would be one thing if I believed Bard's potential rotation replacements would step in smoothly and succeed. Or if I had complete confidence in the top 3 starters to consistently put together great starts and/or stay healthy. It's far too easy to envision a scenario in which Bard moves to the pen, Cook and Matsuzaka are bad, Buchholz/Beckett miss significant time, and the team is left with Bard pitching an inning at a time while the rotation is in shambles. I'm not convinced Bard to the pen is a smart short-term move, never mind long-term.

[Toe Nash]

I think he should be in the rotation until he fails at it or until his innings limit is reached, if he has one. So far his numbers aren't close to failing. If they can't find more guys to help out the bullpen it's still going to lose games even with Bard in it.

I could see an argument for putting him back into the pen in favor of Dice-K in a month or so if:
-Dice-K can be expected to perform at his 07-08 level
-The pen is still awful
-The Sox are still <5 games off the division lead
-Bard has an FIP around 4 or higher; ie, he's not ace-level material but rather simply a solid back-of-the-rotation guy.

I don't see all of these things being likely -- I doubt Dice-K will be that good, I doubt the pen stays so terrible, I think Bard will be better than that as a starter, and if I'm wrong on all three of those I don't think the Sox will be in the hunt in which case they may as well keep Bard in the rotation (unless he's completely awful).

I can't see a reasonable argument for moving Bard to the pen on May 1 while putting Aaron Cook in the rotation. Keep in mind Cook's got Middlebrooks and Iglesias fielding behind him in Pawtucket; in the AL East with Youk and Aviles behind him he'd get eaten alive.

If on August 1 Bard has 130 IP or so I would be in favor of moving him to the pen to save his arm, if that's what the medical staff determines is prudent.

Edited by Toe Nash, 24 April 2012 - 03:06 PM.

[TheoShmeo]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

This sums up my views.

There's no way to answer this kind of question without factoring in the alternatives for the rotation and the pen in the absence of Bard and it's not a matter of simply comparing the amount of innings that Bard would amass in both capacities. With this pen being so wanting and the reasonable possibility that Aaron Cook (and his expiring May 1 option) and Daisuke Matsuzaka will be able to function as credible starters at some point, I favor moving Bard to the bullpen.

Another key factor is whether Bard will be as successful as a starter as he would likely be as a reliever. I'm much more confident about the latter given Bard's lack of track record as a starter and my concerns about his ability to repeat his delivery for 6-8 innings.

Edited by TheoShmeo, 24 April 2012 - 03:31 PM.

[nvalvo]

Bard can go to the pen in the second half of the season, but we need 100+ IP from him in the rotation, so he can do a full season of starts next year.

[86spike]

Bard can go to the pen in the second half of the season, but we need 100+ IP from him in the rotation, so he can do a full season of starts next year.

I'm of a like mind, but I would shift it and send him to the pen early and leave him there until Bailey returns. At that point, you stretch him out and move him to the rotation for the stretch run.

A lot depends on how he looks in his next few starts, though. I'm worried about his troubles with the BB. If he has better control and is pitching great over the next 2-3 starts, then you leave him be. If he's struggling (and the pen still needs reinforcements - which I expect it will), then you move him to the pen for a while to limit his total year's innings and put him back in a position where he has excelled.

[Reverend]

Question for the pen people: I get the "in comparison to other options" argument, but I haven't seen any suggestions as to who you'd have join the rotation if Bard goes to the pen. I get that it would be Dice-K when he comes back, but if you were to send him to the pen, who becomes the #5? Cook?

Edit: I see there is a whole other thread devoted to that complementary topic.

Edited by Reverend, 24 April 2012 - 03:14 PM.

[tims4wins]

Question for the pen people: I get the "in comparison to other options" argument, but I haven't seen any suggestions as to who you'd have join the rotation if Bard goes to the pen. I get that it would be Dice-K when he comes back, but if you were to send him to the pen, who becomes the #5? Cook?

Yeah, I voted to the pen, but mean for it to happen in another month or so when Dice K comes back. So Beckett-Lester-Buch-Doubie-Dice would be the 5. And if over the next month, Dice does not show enough to merit a spot, then leave Bard in the rotation.

[Toe Nash]

I'm of a like mind, but I would shift it and send him to the pen early and leave him there until Bailey returns. At that point, you stretch him out and move him to the rotation for the stretch run.

A lot depends on how he looks in his next few starts, though. I'm worried about his troubles with the BB. If he has better control and is pitching great over the next 2-3 starts, then you leave him be. If he's struggling (and the pen still needs reinforcements - which I expect it will), then you move him to the pen for a while to limit his total year's innings and put him back in a position where he has excelled.

In order to "stretch him out" you'd need to give him at least a couple outings of less-than-starting length (maybe 40 pitches, then 60 pitches, then 80, then go) and these would likely have to come on a regular schedule so you couldn't just put him out there when a starter got knocked out in the third (unless that happened to be on the day he was already going to pitch). So he'd be used sub-optimally for a few weeks as neither a starter nor an ace reliever -- Lots of times guys get sent to the minors to do this in low-pressure situations. Not to mention he's already stretched out; putting him in relief and then stretching him out again later wouldn't be good for his arm.

It makes much more sense from to just change him back to a reliever rather than sending him back and forth. If he was on a one-year deal maybe you don't worry about the health issue but he's a big part of the Sox plans in the next few years too and they hope he's healthy then and not pulling a Hughes or Joba (trampolines aside).

[dbn]

What tims4wins said.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yeah, I voted to the pen, but mean for it to happen in another month or so when Dice K comes back. So Beckett-Lester-Buch-Doubie-Dice would be the 5. And if over the next month, Dice does not show enough to merit a spot, then leave Bard in the rotation.

I'm more or less in the same boat, except I voted rotation because, presuming Doubront is still pitching well, DiceK returning is the only scenario in which I'd want Bard moved to the pen. I don't want him bumped for Cook or even Oswalt, at this point.

Probably a topic for another thread, but what do you do with DiceK if he "does not show enough to merit a spot"? Can't option him to Pawtucket, probably don't want to re-DL him and sit him for another two plus weeks. I think, merit or not, DiceK gets a rotation spot when he reaches the end of his rehab period. You hope he runs with it, but unless he's clearly injured, I don't think there's a way to get him back out once he's in.

[Reverend]

Probably a topic for another thread, but what do you do with DiceK if he "does not show enough to merit a spot"? Can't option him to Pawtucket, probably don't want to re-DL him and sit him for another two plus weeks. I think, merit or not, DiceK gets a rotation spot when he reaches the end of his rehab period. You hope he runs with it, but unless he's clearly injured, I don't think there's a way to get him back out once he's in.

I'm more worried about there being a point where Buchholz 1) doesn't merit a spot and 2) it's not because he's injured. Which I guess puts me the Bard as starter camp, especially with the hope that he can become a #2 level starter for a number of years.

That said, I don't have a plan for how to finish games. But on the third hand, weaker starters will increase pen usage anyway which would tend to dilute Bard's contribution there if he were moved out of the rotation.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Can this team win a championship this season? If Bard is seen as the difference, than I can see moving him to the pen. At this point, though, I think he's more valuable getting the experience and innings in the rotation, and maybe you re-evaluate in late summer to see where help is needed (although frankly, I'd be more inclined to move Matsuzaka, who has no future here, to the pen or elsewhere for help).

[PrometheusWakefield]

Here's where I disagree with the "we need Bard in the bullpen because the bullpen is a disaster" argument.

We need Bard to start because the starting rotation is a disaster. Let's face it, we have no idea what we're going to get from Buchholz for the rest of the year. He could bounce back, he could be bad, he could be unusable. I'm rooting for Doubront, but accepting that he's league average at best. Beckett and Lester are solid pitchers but they aren't Pedro-Schilling; they can't carry a rotation on their own. I mean, the rotation situation is bad enough that there's actually a thread about putting Aaron Cook in the rotation. The offense will be good but we aren't the 1995 Indians either, especially since we don't know what we'll get from Ellsbury.

If we're seriously trying to figure out not "how do we win a few more games", but "how does this team get itself in shape where it can compete with scary looking powerhouses like Texas", we need a game changer bigger than solidifying the closer role. The emergence of Bard as a top of the rotation starter, which I think judging from his first two starts is at least possible, could have that level of impact. To me it's the most realistic scenario I can imagine that turns this team into a championship contender especially given the competition.

I think we're at the point where you have to say "the only scenario for winning this year is one in which the bullpen settles down without removing Bard from the rotation. Therefore, we must assume the bullpen settles down on its own and pursue the strategy that will get us a championship if that happens."

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 24 April 2012 - 04:00 PM.

[JakeRae]

We are a month away from Daisuke returning, at which point someone needs to move from the rotation to the bullpen. I think it's a month long race between Doubront and Bard for the chance to stay in the rotation unless someone gets hurt between now and then. Both have pitched well enough that Cook replacing either should not be an option. (Cook is, at best, a league average starter and both Doubront and Bard have looked significantly better than that.)

All else being equal, Doubront probably has an advantage over Bard since Bard has proven that he excels in a bullpen role. On the other hand, Bard has been around longer and probably has more sway over his assignment. There's a reasonable chance that, in a month, someone is hurt and this is a non-issue. There's also some chance that Cook replaces Buchholz in the next 7 days and Buchholz goes on the DL so he can have a rehab stint to try to fix whatever is wrong with his mechanics.

Going forward, assuming the rotation is healthy entering next season, there will still only be space for one of Doubront or Bard unless there is a trade.

I voted rotation and think that Bard has the skills to be a very good starter, but it's possible that the rotation situation forces them to move one quality starter to the bullpen and that very well could be him.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why not move Matsuzaka to the pen? Shouldn't this at least be discussed as an option? He's been really mediocre for the past three years, and he has no future here. I'm skeptical of giving him starts over Doubront or Bard.

[Pumpsie]

I voted #3 in that I'm closest to what tims4wins said. Keep Bard in the rotation for right now. And then see what happens with those "8 guys in the pen" and Buchholz and Dice-K and everyone else. However, if things in the rotation round into shape, and, say, it looks as if we have 6 solid starters at some point AND the pen is still a Roulette Wheel of Death and Destruction AND we have a good chance of making the playoffs THIS year, then, by all means, put Bard back in the pen then. But if not all three of those elements are happening, just keep Bard in the rotation and look forward to NEXT year.

The BEST thing would be to clone Daniel Bard, of course, because, right now, he's desperately needed in BOTH places. The lack of a Daniel Bard in the bullpen is why Bobby V. keeps trying to find ONE pitcher (besides Aceves on his good days) who can pitch to BOTH right and left-handed batters and not get killed. It's just a sorry situation.

[Rasputin]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

This team is not restricted to this season.

[Rasputin]

Here's where I disagree with the "we need Bard in the bullpen because the bullpen is a disaster" argument.

We need Bard to start because the starting rotation is a disaster. Let's face it, we have no idea what we're going to get from Buchholz for the rest of the year. He could bounce back, he could be bad, he could be unusable. I'm rooting for Doubront, but accepting that he's league average at best. Beckett and Lester are solid pitchers but they aren't Pedro-Schilling; they can't carry a rotation on their own. I mean, the rotation situation is bad enough that there's actually a thread about putting Aaron Cook in the rotation. The offense will be good but we aren't the 1995 Indians either, especially since we don't know what we'll get from Ellsbury.

If we're seriously trying to figure out not "how do we win a few more games", but "how does this team get itself in shape where it can compete with scary looking powerhouses like Texas", we need a game changer bigger than solidifying the closer role. The emergence of Bard as a top of the rotation starter, which I think judging from his first two starts is at least possible, could have that level of impact. To me it's the most realistic scenario I can imagine that turns this team into a championship contender especially given the competition.

I think we're at the point where you have to say "the only scenario for winning this year is one in which the bullpen settles down without removing Bard from the rotation. Therefore, we must assume the bullpen settles down on its own and pursue the strategy that will get us a championship if that happens."

This, while hyperbolic, is really the point for this year. The best thing for the bullpen right now would be for the starters to pitch more innings. That would allow our illustrious manager to pick and choose better rather than being forced to use everyone a lot.

[ngruz25]

Is there any evidence that having Bard make 28+ starts (depending on the playoff situation) is worse on his arm than shifting him to the bullpen, and thus totally changing his warming up/recovery routine, 3/4ths of the way through the season?

Personally, I let him start until he gives some indication that he's wearing down, and then I shut him down. Seems to me that shuttling a pitcher back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen just adds to the stress on his arm.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Is there any evidence that having Bard make 28+ starts (depending on the playoff situation) is worse on his arm than shifting him to the bullpen, and thus totally changing his warming up/recovery routine, 3/4ths of the way through the season?

Personally, I let him start until he gives some indication that he's wearing down, and then I shut him down. Seems to me that shuttling a pitcher back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen just adds to the stress on his arm.

I think the idea (for me, at least) is to shut him down for two weeks with a late-summer DL stint, before ramping him up as a bullpen guy.

[JakeRae]

Why not move Matsuzaka to the pen? Shouldn't this at least be discussed as an option? He's been really mediocre for the past three years, and he has no future here. I'm skeptical of giving him starts over Doubront or Bard.

There are a few reasons. First, Matsuzaka's walk issues might be problematic in the pen. Second, as a veteran and FA to be, he's going to be a lot less likely to accept a pen role than Doubront or Bard would (the same reasoning applies to moving Doubront instead of Bard). Third, it's very possible that a post-TJ Matsuzaka is a better pitcher than either Doubront or Bard.

[The Gray Eagle]

Why does Matsuzaka have no future here? Sure he reportedly butted heads with the former manager and former pitching coaches, but those guys are all gone. He's a free agent, but if he looks good when he comes back, why would the Red Sox just let him go without an offer? The owners are still here and supposedly a big reason why they spent so much on getting him in the first place was to bring in money from Japan. No one really knows how much they make from him.

Sure there's a good chance he'll leave after this season, but there's a whole lot of stuff that's going to happen before that decision happens. Maybe he'll love pitching for Valentine and throwing to a catcher other than Varitek. Maybe the team will et him pitch backwards, like he did when he was in Japan. Maybe McClure will let him do whatever he wants in terms of throwing on the side.

Or maybe he'll still dislike it here and will suck when he comes back, who knows? The point is there are possible scenarios where the Red Sox want to sign him and where he is interested in returning.

[JakeRae]

Why does Matsuzaka have no future here? Sure he reportedly butted heads with the former manager and former pitching coaches, but those guys are all gone. He's a free agent, but if he looks good when he comes back, why would the Red Sox just let him go without an offer? The owners are still here and supposedly a big reason why they spent so much on getting him in the first place was to bring in money from Japan. No one really knows how much they make from him.

Sure there's a good chance he'll leave after this season, but there's a whole lot of stuff that's going to happen before that decision happens. Maybe he'll love pitching for Valentine and throwing to a catcher other than Varitek. Maybe the team will et him pitch backwards, like he did when he was in Japan. Maybe McClure will let him do whatever he wants in terms of throwing on the side.

Or maybe he'll still dislike it here and will suck when he comes back, who knows? The point is there are possible scenarios where the Red Sox want to sign him and where he is interested in returning.

There is no room unless there are significant injuries that will extend into next year or both Doubront and Bard fail as starters.

[Rudy Pemberton]

If Matsuzaka comes back and pitches really well, someone else will be willing to pay a ton for him, and if he pitches as he has the past few years, can't imagine the Sox would want him back. I guess I just don't understand why his feelings should matter here. He hasn't pitched well enough lately to have a rotation spot handed to him; and bumping Bard or Doubront may not be the right move. I guess it all depends on where the Sox are in the standings and how those guys are doing.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He hasn't pitched well enough lately to have a rotation spot handed to him.

Yes. Unlike most other pitchers who are coming off Tommy John surgery, Matsuzaka has not pitched well lately.

[Eric Van]

This is all back-of-the-envelope, quick-and-dirty, but doing it more accurately isn't going to change the conclusions.

We can make a fairly good estimation of the ERAs that Cook and Matsuzaka, if both return to form, can be expected to put up as starters. Call it 4.50 and 4.00, respectively.

I'm convinced that Bard, as a starter, is a 3.50 sort of guy. As a reliever, he was a 2.60 type. That 0.90 difference is pretty typical (Tango says 0.80 is standard).

When you factor in the reduced innings but the higher leverage, you can use 1.8 as a multiplier for the closer role. IOW, if you lose 1.00 of ERA in the rotation, you've got to gain 1.80 in your closer.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Cook, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.50 - 3.50) = 4.40 or better for that to be smart. It's inconceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. Morales or Padilla could close and do that. Ergo, moving Bard to the pen to make way for Cook is nuts.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Dice-K, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.00 - 3.50) = 3.50. It is conceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. That might be better than what Aceves can give you in a role he's not comfortable with.

So the answer is, the rotation for another month. At which point there's a chance that moving Bard to the closer role is good for the team. And you break out the front of the envelopes and sharpen your pencils to find out if that's really true.

Playing a guy at a position where he's less valuable, because of an imbalance at other positions, is not unheard of in these parts. They did it year after year with Youkilis at 1B. But it bugged the F.O. every year.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Yes. Unlike most other pitchers who are coming off Tommy John surgery, Matsuzaka has not pitched well lately.

Sorry, I meant 2009, 2010, and 2011.

[Eddie Jurak]

It's not a decision in a vacuum though. As a general rule, a pitcher is more valuable as a starter if he can do it than a reliever for sheer innings alone. However, given how this team has opened up, and the fact they have zero reliable arms in the bullpen, isn't it the best thing for this team to have him the bullpen?

That would be true if the rotation was solid and deep, but it's not. Buchholz has been awful this year. The team is 5-10, and their starters have been subpar in half the games. Aaron Cook is a washed up, retread stiff.

[Eric Van]

I'm rooting for Doubront, but accepting that he's league average at best.

He does lead the league in K% after three starts (and he's 5th among pitchers with 10 IP), and has a 3.37 FIP and 3.12 SIERA. I'm not sure if a guy who is "league average at best" can do that.

[dbn]

This is all back-of-the-envelope, quick-and-dirty, but doing it more accurately isn't going to change the conclusions.

We can make a fairly good estimation of the ERAs that Cook and Matsuzaka, if both return to form, can be expected to put up as starters. Call it 4.50 and 4.00, respectively.

I'm convinced that Bard, as a starter, is a 3.50 sort of guy. As a reliever, he was a 2.60 type. That 0.90 difference is pretty typical (Tango says 0.80 is standard).

When you factor in the reduced innings but the higher leverage, you can use 1.8 as a multiplier for the closer role. IOW, if you lose 1.00 of ERA in the rotation, you've got to gain 1.80 in your closer.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Cook, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.50 - 3.50) = 4.40 or better for that to be smart. It's inconceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. Morales or Padilla could close and do that. Ergo, moving Bard to the pen to make way for Cook is nuts.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Dice-K, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.00 - 3.50) = 3.50. It is conceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. That might be better than what Aceves can give you in a role he's not comfortable with.

So the answer is, the rotation for another month. At which point there's a chance that moving Bard to the closer role is good for the team. And you break out the front of the envelopes and sharpen your pencils to find out if that's really true.

Playing a guy at a position where he's less valuable, because of an imbalance at other positions, is not unheard of in these parts. They did it year after year with Youkilis at 1B. But it bugged the F.O. every year.

By then we'll have a better idea if Bard can be the 3.50 ERA guy, too; if he is worse than that, the math changes. I was surprised that last year 18 of the 52 qualified AL starters had ERAs <3.50. Of course there is a selection effect there (i.e., bad starters don't get enough innings to qualify, unless they are John Lackey), but for reference the AL starters with ERAs closest to 3.50 last year were David Price, Jon Lester and Felix Hernandez.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Sorry, I meant 2009, 2010, and 2011.

Taking Matsuzaka's 2nd half numbers in 2009 make him easily the ace of this staff.

His disappointing 2010 line would make him the #3 starting pitcher on the Sox right now (after Doubront and Bard).

And are you seriously going to argue that he should be judged on 6 weeks of a season where he blew out his elbow?

[Rudy Pemberton]

No, I am stating that his last three years have been pretty mediocre, and he won't be here next year, so I'm not sure why the team should bump Bard or Doubront for him, if those guys are pitching well, or if they are 10 games out.

Some seem to think Matsuzaka is going to step right into the rotation and be great, sorry if I'm skeptical.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Some seem to think Matsuzaka is going to step right into the rotation and be great, sorry if I'm skeptical.

I haven't heard anyone say Matsuzaka would come back and be great -- but he's been a competent major league starter, and there's no good reason to think he won't be in the rotation when he comes back.

[Jinhocho]

Reliever this year - if he turns into one of the games elite closers then he stays. For this team to win, they are going to need to nail down the backend of that bullpen and I believe that for this year Bard setting up and eventually closing nails it down. Something like:

Melancon in the 7th Aceves in the 8th and Bard in the 9th seems ok to me. Not quite the same ring of Timlin in the 8th Williamson in the 9th but you cant have everything...

[Rasputin]

Matsuzaka isn't in the picture going forward because he'll be a free agent commanding a pretty hefty price tag and there are cheaper options that may well be better.

Not to mention, right now we have six starters for 2013, Becket, Buchholz, Lester, Bard, Doubront, and Lackey.

[Reverend]

This is all back-of-the-envelope, quick-and-dirty, but doing it more accurately isn't going to change the conclusions.

We can make a fairly good estimation of the ERAs that Cook and Matsuzaka, if both return to form, can be expected to put up as starters. Call it 4.50 and 4.00, respectively.

I'm convinced that Bard, as a starter, is a 3.50 sort of guy. As a reliever, he was a 2.60 type. That 0.90 difference is pretty typical (Tango says 0.80 is standard).

When you factor in the reduced innings but the higher leverage, you can use 1.8 as a multiplier for the closer role. IOW, if you lose 1.00 of ERA in the rotation, you've got to gain 1.80 in your closer.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Cook, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.50 - 3.50) = 4.40 or better for that to be smart. It's inconceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. Morales or Padilla could close and do that. Ergo, moving Bard to the pen to make way for Cook is nuts.

If Bard stays in the rotation instead of Dice-K, your closer has to be 2.60 + 1.80 * (4.00 - 3.50) = 3.50. It is conceivable that they don't have a closer who can do that. That might be better than what Aceves can give you in a role he's not comfortable with.

So the answer is, the rotation for another month. At which point there's a chance that moving Bard to the closer role is good for the team. And you break out the front of the envelopes and sharpen your pencils to find out if that's really true.

Playing a guy at a position where he's less valuable, because of an imbalance at other positions, is not unheard of in these parts. They did it year after year with Youkilis at 1B. But it bugged the F.O. every year.

Given that the calculations start with bard's 2.60 base, is this working on the assumption that if Bard goes to the pen he'll be made the closer?

[Sprowl]

I haven't heard anyone say Matsuzaka would come back and be great -- but he's been a competent major league starter, and there's no good reason to think he won't be in the rotation when he comes back.

I think a lot would depend on whether Matsuzaka gets the post-TJ velocity boost, so I would be inclined to judge Matsuzaka by the scouting reports, especially his fastball velocity, than by projections. If he can average 92 and hit 94, he needs to be in the rotation. If he's sitting at 90, then it will be hard to justify booting any of the current starters, even Buchholz, who I think is not a lost cause and who has a higher ceiling than Matsuzaka.

[E5 Yaz]

Starter.
The overwhelming reason to keep Bard in the bullpen would be to help the team this season. While it's certainly too early to believe the Sox are out of it completely, the number of issues that have cropped up thus far go beyond the bullpen.
If there's any season to see whether Bard can emerge as a starter, it's one in which their championship hope hinge completely on the back end of the bullpen.

[The Gray Eagle]

There is no room unless there are significant injuries that will extend into next year or both Doubront and Bard fail as starters.

So we're going to assume we know what next year's rotation is going to be like? We don't even know what next month's rotation is going to be.

There's no room for Matsuzaka-- unless things change. Guess what, often in baseball things change with your pitchers. That's why predicitons on Matsuzaka's 2013 shouldn't be part of any decision making about who pitches where.

No, I am stating that his last three years have been pretty mediocre, and he won't be here next year, so I'm not sure why the team should bump Bard or Doubront for him, if those guys are pitching well, or if they are 10 games out.
Some seem to think Matsuzaka is going to step right into the rotation and be great, sorry if I'm skeptical.

Bard or Doubront might get bumped for him if they are ineffective in the next month. Or if one of them gets moved to the bullpen in a panic move. Or if someone gets hurt. Or if Matsuzaka's stuff looks better than theirs. Plenty of these things can happen.

Bard should stay in the rotation for now. If we miraculously actually have too many healthy, effective starters a month from now, we'll be happy to have that problem. The odds are against it though, and we shouldn't be making decisions based on the assumption that we will. And Dice K's 2013 shouldn't be a factor either.

Edited by The Gray Eagle, 24 April 2012 - 07:22 PM.

[catomatic]

Why not move Matsuzaka to the pen? Shouldn't this at least be discussed as an option? He's been really mediocre for the past three years, and he has no future here. I'm skeptical of giving him starts over Doubront or Bard.

Have you forgotten the adventures of Matsuzaka's first innings? The excuse some of us made for his spectacular difficulties at the start of every game was that he was sampling his own vast repertoire to see what was going to work for him that day. Regardless of the reason, he was regularly awful and surrendered a huge percentage of his earned runs for the outing at the very top of the game. That is not a great asset for a reliever at all. I want no part of Dice-K to the pen at all.

[Harry Hooper]

Why not move Matsuzaka to the pen? Shouldn't this at least be discussed as an option? He's been really mediocre for the past three years, and he has no future here. I'm skeptical of giving him starts over Doubront or Bard.

Dice-K tells BobbyV he wants to revert to his Japanese program of throwing every day. BobbyV replies that he can arrange that!