37 replies to this topic

[Harry Agganis]

We have two folks down at the farm who could be coming to a rotation near you in the near future.

Cook has two opt outs one 1 May and another 1 June

“I’ll make a decision when I feel like it’s time to make a decision,” he said after the PawSox’ seven-inning, 7-1 win over Durham. “I haven’t made a decision yet.”
Cook actually has two opt-outs, one that arrives a week from Tuesday, with another residing on June 1 if he chooses not to utilize the first go-round.
There was some talk that Cook was intent on having a decision made, one way or another, by the May 1 deadline. But he said after his latest start that isn’t necessarily the case.
“Nope,” said Cook when asked if he has shut the door on extending his stay in Pawtucket. “There’s no reason to.
http://fullcount.wee...n-cook-red-sox/

Dice K is on a rehab and could be available as early as 23 May.

So what does the front Office do?

Apparently Beckett, Lester, and Bard are staying in the rotation. That leaves Clay and Dubront as the moveables. Barring an injury of course.

What I would like to see is Cooke called up and Take Clay's spot and shift clay to the pen till he can get his shit together.
What I think will is they will somehow convince Cooke to wait till June 1 and than displace Dubront to the pen if no one is broken by then.

I have no idea what happens when Dice K is ready.

My secret wish would be to keep Bard in the pen and call up Cook. I see that as best for the team at this moment.

Edited by Harry Agganis, 24 April 2012 - 01:34 PM.

[mabrowndog]

Cooke has two opt outs one 1 May and another 1 June

What I would like to see is Cooke called up and Take Clay's spot and shift clay to the pen till he can get his shit together.
What I think will is they will somehow convince Cooke to wait till June 1 and than displace Dubront to the pen if no one is broken by then.

My secret wish would be to keep Bard in the pen and call up Cooke.

Anyway...

Clay's next start will tell us a lot. If he tanks again, I believe he'll be demoted to the pen or optioned while they bring up Cook with Padilla getting DFA. If Cook can't replicate or at least approximate his AAA performance at the MLB level (and based on his abysmal 0.296 K/IP rate I have serioius doubts he can do either, awesome sinker be damned), he'll be ditched for Daisuke.

I'd also like to see Bard moved to the pen, not that I don't think he can be a valuable starter, but because bullpen stability and performance are at a premium right now. I doubt that's what happens unless and until the following all happen concurrently:

* Buchholz regains his form (and, if demoted, his rotation spot).
* Doubront continues to put up quality innings.
* Daisuke proves he's both healthy and consistently effective.

If it comes down to those three pitching to their potential, plus Lester and Beckett, Bard really has to be the odd man out.

On a side note, if Clay gets his act together, Bard stabilizes and Felix continues on his path, I wouldn't discount Cook being brought up to replace Padilla in the pen. His inability to generate swings & misses would be far less of a liability in a relief role where he isn't working 3 or 4 times through a lineup.


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Edited by mabrowndog, 24 April 2012 - 03:22 PM.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

I think Clay's next start against the White Sox will dictate whether or not the FO calls Cook up. Doubront has arguably been their best starter in the rotation this season, so I don't see him going anywhere. Otherwise, I think Cook will have to wait another month.

[pokey_reese]

Apparently Beckett, Lester, and Bard are staying in the rotation. That leaves Clay and Dubront as the moveables. Barring an injury of course.

Did Ben/Valentine say something about moving Buchholz to the 'pen? Is this a guess based on Clay's terrible results, or did you see a baseball source report this?

The closest thing I could find (with admittedly almost no digging) suggests the opposite:

In the old days, a pitcher would be sent to Pawtucket to work on some things, but as a former 17-game winner in the majors, Buchholz will be allowed to work it out in the big leagues.


Manager Bobby Valentine and pitching coach Bob McClure mentioned after the game that Buchholz is still building arm strength.

http://www.boston.co...le_for_red_sox/

[rembrat]

Someone will get injured.

[Sprowl]

Did Ben/Valentine say something about moving Buchholz to the 'pen? Is this a guess based on Clay's terrible results, or did you see a baseball source report this?

The closest thing I could find (with admittedly almost no digging) suggests the opposite:

http://www.boston.co...le_for_red_sox/

Many of Clay's attributes and tendencies would play more poorly out of the bullpen. Pitch variety, struggles with men on base, slowly building velocity and control issues (especially in the first inning) all point to a pitcher ill suited to relieving.

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think Clay's next start against the White Sox will dictate whether or not the FO calls Cook up. Doubront has arguably been their best starter in the rotation this season, so I don't see him going anywhere. Otherwise, I think Cook will have to wait another month.

fWAR agrees. He's leading the team with 0.4 so far, followed by Lester and Bard tied with 0.3.

However, if Buchholz continues to suck, I have to wonder if there is a DL stint in his future. His average FB velocity so far is down even from last year, which was a notable notch down from his 09-10 level.

EDIT: pokey's link suggests that the velocity issue may just be a by-product of having pitched so little in the past year, rather than a physical problem, so they may just need to be patient with him.

Edited by Savin Hillbilly, 24 April 2012 - 01:37 PM.

[Harry Agganis]

Of course someone will get injured. However,

No The Clay piece isjust my speculation as the most logical thing to do

[Plympton91]

No one has yet given me a good reason to believe Cook would be an upgrade over Matt Albers, let alone one of the starters.

He was atrocious in 2011, which was the 3rd consecutive year in which he declined noticeably further. His ERA and WHIP sucked. His walk rate is just average, and his K rate is terrible.

His last 15 innings in AAA, he's struck out 1 batter - repeat ONE batter - in 15 innings. Meanwhile, he's walked 6. Even for the whole season down there, he's at 3 K/9 and 8/9 K/BB ratio. How many AAA pitchers have successfully transitioned to the majors with that kind of K/BB ratio?

I say let Cook go if he wants to go. Justin Germano and even Brandon Duckworth are as likely to do well as he is.

So, forget who he replaces in the rotation, who do you cut to bring him up? Hill replaces Thomas, so if they're determined to call him up, one of Tazawa, Padilla, Albers, or Atchison has to go away to make room for him. He's replacing a reliver on the roster, let him pitch in relief.

[Harry Agganis]

Many of Clay's attributes and tendencies would play more poorly out of the bullpen. Pitch variety, struggles with men on base, slowly building velocity and control issues (especially in the first inning) all point to a pitcher ill suited to relieving.

Unfortunately I also see him as the person least suited to starting of the current five

[Savin Hillbilly]

Unfortunately I also see him as the person least suited to starting of the current five

You mean least suited to starting as opposed to relieving? Or do you just mean he's the worst pitcher of the five--which, so far, he certainly has been?

[E5 Yaz]

Couldn't they just trade Cook to a team which would benefit from his ground ball rate in exchange for a bullpen arm?

Despite his AAA success, I just don't see him as an improvement on what's in the rotation now. The panic-stricken Cafardoites would want him to replace Bard in the rotation. But while that would help this year, what else about what you've see from this team suggests that this yearis worth making that drastic a decision?

[Sprowl]

Cook might be an effective strikethrower in relief, although that would duplicate Tazawa's primary quality. Cook has a significant platoon split, so if the Red Sox keep Hill, Morales and Thomas or Miller in the bullpen, Cook might give the manager another option to play the platoon matchup game. Still, I have my doubts that Cook's ceiling is as high as Tazawa's or that his current stuff is competitive with Albers'.

[trekfan55]

With Bard and Felix there is a concern of too many innings. So could the Sox think about a 6 man rotation for a while if they decide to bring up Cook?

[Bowlerman9]

With Bard and Felix there is a concern of too many innings. So could the Sox think about a 6 man rotation for a while if they decide to bring up Cook?

No, you do not take innings away from Lester and Beckett for someone like Aaron Cook. Ever.

[PrometheusWakefield]

Are we really at the point where we're talking about how we clear up roster space for Aaron Cook?

Aaron Cook is not the guy you move people around to find space for. Aaron Cook is the guy to turn to when you are so desperate that you can't find anyone better. It's impressive that this guy was able to turn being a bad pitcher into an 9 year career but he has basically nothing going for him statistically and he would be a total disaster in our rotation.

Edited by PrometheusWakefield, 24 April 2012 - 02:03 PM.

[czar]

Are we really at the point where we're talking about how we clear up roster space for Aaron Cook?

Aaron Cook is not the guy you move people around to find space for. Aaron Cook is the guy to turn to when you are so desperate that you can't find anyone better. It's impressive that this guy was able to turn being a bad pitcher into an 9 year career but he has basically nothing going for him statistically and he would be a total disaster in our rotation.

I planned on going on a tirade but I'll quote this instead.

Have three good (and good is generous with a K/BB less than 1 in AAA) starts in Pawtucket changed the fact that his career xFIP (in the NL) is ~4.50? Is he suddenly throwing harder than 88 and K'ing more than one guy every 3 innings? I mean, Clay has sucked big-time so far and even then his stuff projects infinitely better at his floor than Cook's career average.

I have no clue why this is even a discussion. I guess we have things to worry about when Dice-K is ready but a month feels like eons in "starting rotation time."

EDIT: eons, ions, whatever.

Edited by czar, 24 April 2012 - 02:17 PM.

[Rasputin]

Are we really at the point where we're talking about how we clear up roster space for Aaron Cook?

Only in the sense that we're talking about shuffling people around to get the best out of them while they figure out WTF is wrong with themselves and one of the pieces that we're talking about shuffling in is named Aaron Cook.

If all the starters were pitching as well as we think we know they can, this conversation wouldn't be happening.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Does Cook have any history or desire to relieve? I see no reason why he can't at least be tried as a long man until either an injury happens or he blows up, very similar to what they did trying out Padilla.

Having 3 good starts in Pawtucket doesn't give him precedence over any of our current starters. I'll even go as far as saying that the K:BB ratio isn't as important with Cook because he's an extreme extreme groundball pitcher. If the FO moves Doubront or Bard to the Pen simply because they haven't had the starting track record of the others it would be a brain dead move. Bard and Doubront could be quality starters on this team for years, Cook is a 1 year veteran flier, taken to see if you can catch that ever elusive lightning in a bottle.

Sure if there's an injury by all means call him up, or throw him in the pen god knows they could use an arm that can get a few GO's.

If that's not the case offer him a creative contract, shop him to another team for a small return , or let him walk.

[trekfan55]

For me it's more about the opt out than anything else. Cook is right now the Sox's # 6 starter and he is stashed safely in AAA, but must be called up by May 1st or maybe on June 1st (it appears he is willing to extend the deadline, but we'll see). Who takes his place in case of an injury? If the Sox let him go by May 1st (which is a week away) and it turns out Clay is hurt what happens?

This is not about considering Cook to be better than he is, this is simply about not losing your #6 pitcher for now. Remember last year the Sox had to use SP #6,7, and 8 to try to get crucial wins.

Then again, I go back to 2005 and we were discussing "who goes to the bullpen when Schilling is ready?" It never happened, at no time did the Sox have 6 healthy eligible starters ready.

[Harry Hooper]

I'd rather see Wakefield called out of retirement than see Cook on the 2012 Red Sox.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Have three good (and good is generous with a K/BB less than 1 in AAA) starts in Pawtucket changed the fact that his career xFIP (in the NL) is ~4.50? Is he suddenly throwing harder than 88 and K'ing more than one guy every 3 innings? I mean, Clay has sucked big-time so far and even then his stuff projects infinitely better at his floor than Cook's career average.

When faced with a looming opt-out deadline last year with Andrew Miller, didn't everyone get over-excited that he'd turned some kind of corner over his last 3-4 starts with the Paw Sox (1.77 ERA, 0.789 WHIP, 8.67 K/BB over his final 25.1 IP in 4 starts)? But when he came up, he was the same pumpkin he was in Florida and Detroit.

It's hard to get too excited that Cook is as good as his ERA and other surface stats seem to show. His FIP is okay (4.09) but he's got a BABIP of .227. Is he going to maintain that with Youk and Aviles on the left side of the infield rather than Middlebrooks and Iglesias?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Atlanta just optioned Jurrjens down to AAA today, because he's got an ERA over 9.

Should Buchholz pitch another poor outing -- say another 5-6 ER line over 5-6 IP -- I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Sox did the same, so that Clay can "build arm strength" or whatever, somewhere the results don't matter. He's got an option left, although I have no idea how risky it would be to try to pass him through OAV waivers. Jurrjens made it through them okay, at any rate.

Hell, at the very least that would get him away from his best bud John Lackey (I'm still convinced he's a clubhouse cancer).

Better than a 9 ERA, 5 2/3 IP/GS line isn't that big a hurdle for Cook to clear, even if one happens to think there's some smoke-and-mirrors behind his FIP.

[Toe Nash]

I planned on going on a tirade but I'll quote this instead.

Have three good (and good is generous with a K/BB less than 1 in AAA) starts in Pawtucket changed the fact that his career xFIP (in the NL) is ~4.50? Is he suddenly throwing harder than 88 and K'ing more than one guy every 3 innings? I mean, Clay has sucked big-time so far and even then his stuff projects infinitely better at his floor than Cook's career average.

Speier says that he was reaching 92 mph:

Cook said that, for the first time in years, he feels like he is fully healthy at the start of a season. He was encouraged by his most recent start -- a seven-inning complete game in which he allowed just one run on Monday for the PawSox -- in which his velocity ticked up to 92 mph and by the fact that he is getting opponents to pound his sinker into the ground.

Of course, he hasn't translated that into any Ks. I agree that based on his track record he's not likely to help in the AL East with this infield defense.

[Plympton91]

Well, I'll resolve to not throw a complete fit, if, in fact, he's got his velocity back up to 90-92 instead of sitting at 86-88.

[Lynchie]

Buchholz has been bad. Either he work it out in the pen or down at AAA. He is the weak link in the rotation and that's going some the way things have begun. If teams are lining up for Cook I'd bring him into the rotation as a showcase at a minimum to see what can be brought. If it works out you get a starting pitcher. I'll be the first to admit that minor league stats do not translate to ML success so he may well crash and burn. It's worth a shot at this time I think though the K is of concern.

[JakeRae]

Atlanta just optioned Jurrjens down to AAA today, because he's got an ERA over 9.

Should Buchholz pitch another poor outing -- say another 5-6 ER line over 5-6 IP -- I wouldn't be terribly surprised if the Sox did the same, so that Clay can "build arm strength" or whatever, somewhere the results don't matter. He's got an option left, although I have no idea how risky it would be to try to pass him through OAV waivers. Jurrjens made it through them okay, at any rate.

Hell, at the very least that would get him away from his best bud John Lackey (I'm still convinced he's a clubhouse cancer).

Better than a 9 ERA, 5 2/3 IP/GS line isn't that big a hurdle for Cook to clear, even if one happens to think there's some smoke-and-mirrors behind his FIP.

There is no risk. They can always pull him back. Or, I should rephrase, the only risk is that it pisses him off.

There is also a gentleman's agreement that everyone passes through optional assignment waivers. Even without that, I'm not sure how many teams would jump at the chance to take on Buchholz and his contract right now considering his injury last year and the current belief that he needs to fundamentally alter his mechanics to keep it from recurring.

I'm not too concerned about keeping or losing Cook. His upside is being average and there is a considerable chance he is borderline replacement level. If everyone is healthy on June 1st, I can't see how he makes sense on the roster. If Bard and Doubront keep pitching the way they have been, I want no part of him bumping either of them to the bullpen.

Edited by JakeRae, 24 April 2012 - 05:26 PM.

[Plympton91]

Buchholz's old mechanics made him one of the top pitching prospects in the game and he threw a no-hitter with them. People are reacting way to much to 3 bad starts coming off a lost 2/3rds of a season. He'll be fine. He sucked last April too and then had a good stretch before the injury shelved him.

I'm still a Doubront skeptic. But I want no part of Cook unless it's as a replacement for Padilla as a long-man, and even then, I reserve the right to bitch if they get that call wrong, because everything I can observe says Padilla is a better pitcher.

[lexrageorge]

Aaron Cook is a guy who you keep around as long as possible for insurance. He's your 5th starter in case one of the current starting 5 gets hurt, optioned, or if Bard gets placed into the closer role because there's simply noone else competent enough to get guys out in a save situation (and that is the only way I'd accept Bard in the pen). If none of the above happen, and if Cook is dead set on starting, then you shake hands and send him on his way and let Cafardo get his panties all twisted up.

Sure, Cook wants to start. As did Aceves and Padilla. But if they're not better than the 5 we have, they either go to the pen or get DFA'd. Cook didn't cost them anything, so it's no big deal.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Aaron Cook is a guy who you keep around as long as possible for insurance. He's your 5th starter in case one of the current starting 5 gets hurt, optioned, or if Bard gets placed into the closer role because there's simply noone else competent enough to get guys out in a save situation (and that is the only way I'd accept Bard in the pen). If none of the above happen, and if Cook is dead set on starting, then you shake hands and send him on his way and let Cafardo get his panties all twisted up.

Sure, Cook wants to start. As did Aceves and Padilla. But if they're not better than the 5 we have, they either go to the pen or get DFA'd. Cook didn't cost them anything, so it's no big deal.

Well, the real problem is the depth remaining in the upper minors after Cook and Matsuzaka. And this is why the Sox absolutely need to keep Cook. Wilson was just bumped to the pen, so the other AAA starters are currently Germano, Ohlendorf, Duckworth, and Mathis. AA is Hernandez, Balcom-Miller, Huntzinger, Martin, and Buckner.

That makes nine pitchers I hope never to see make a spot-start for the Red Sox.

And the pitchers in the pen can't really be counted on to be stretched out any more -- it's been 4 weeks or more since any of them have thrown >4 IP in an appearance.

[Plympton91]

Well, the real problem is the depth remaining in the upper minors after Cook and Matsuzaka. And this is why the Sox absolutely need to keep Cook. Wilson was just bumped to the pen, so the other AAA starters are currently Germano, Ohlendorf, Duckworth, and Mathis. AA is Hernandez, Balcom-Miller, Huntzinger, Martin, and Buckner.

That makes nine pitchers I hope never to see make a spot-start for the Red Sox.

Germano was better as a starter than Cook has been since 2009.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Germano was better as a starter than Cook has been since 2009.

Germano has started 1 game at the MLB level since 2009.

[dbn]

I'd rather see Wakefield called out of retirement than see Cook on the 2012 Red Sox.

Or Martinez.

[geoduck no quahog]

Has anyone on the board actually seen Cook pitch this year? I'd like to hear some eyewitness accounts.

[URI]

Germano has started 1 game at the MLB level since 2009.

Depending on how big a negative you think Cook is...

[luckysox]

I think Clay has his next two starts, tonight and Monday 4/30, to return to at least average, and if he doesn't, Cook will get the call next Monday night as his deadline clock strikes midnight. I don't suspect it will happen before then unless Clay really is injured. If Clay is awesome tonight, then having Aaron Cook around isn't quite as important, and you let him figure out if he wants to stick around until June 1st. If not, then so be it, you go forward with what you have. In addition to Dice coming back soon, Padilla can be stretched out if need be as an emergency starter if someone goes down. Hill will be back soon and Miller will be available soon so losing Padilla from the bullpen (in terms of numbers) is not a big deal. I imagine he could go 4 innings or so right now if he had to (which is not yet the case - it would only be the case if Clay becomes Clay again, and Cook leaves and then someone else from the rotation goes down - lots of "ands" in there), and then you patch it with Atch and the rest of the pen.

I don't think Aaron Cook is the guy you have to make sure you have room for at all costs. There are other ways to deal with an emergency. I think almost all of this rides on how Clay pitches tonight and his next time out, and I don't think they'll send him to AAA if he stinks, but instead find a reason to DL him. And who knows, maybe he actually needs to be on the DL. I hope not.

[aron7awol]

While I don't expect Cook to be a well above average starter, he's certainly shown throughout his career that he can be slightly better than league average when he's healthy and throwing in the low 90s. He has not been good for the past 2 seasons, but his average fastball velocity has been under 90 and he has not been healthy. If reports are saying that he's currently throwing in the low 90s, I'm a lot more optimistic about him. In the 4 seasons from 2006-2009, he averaged 29 starts per season with a park and league adjusted xFIP- range of 93-99 in each season.

Now, should he take a rotation spot over anyone in the rotation currently? I think you have to stick with Doubront as long as he's pitching as well as he has. Give Buchholz one more start to prove he can help this team right now and if it's another huge failure, DL him with tired arm or option him to build up arm strength. He's hurting the team right now, and he probably wouldn't be any better in the pen. A healthy Cook is somewhere around league average starting pitching depth, and that's always valuable. I'd like to hold onto him if possible. You could also use him out of the pen as a groundball specialist when you need a GIDP badly.

[Eric Van]

Absolutely agree with all the folks pointing out that Cook is depth that we need. Ordinarily, you have a 6th starter / long man in the pen, plus a prospect optioned to AAA who can be an adequate MLB 4th / 5th starter and can be called up and sent down as needed because of injuries. Right now, as long as Bobby V. is adamant about using Padilla and Aceves in one-inning roles, you have neither.* So ultimately you want to have seven starters on the MLB roster: the current five plus Dice-K and Cook.

And you can't focus on Cook's terrible K/W numbers in AAA to dismiss his potential effectiveness in MLB. He very likely has a BABIP skill against hitters of that caliber, and it's really hard to strike guys out when they chase strike one or two out of the zone and bounce it on four hops to an infielder. Based on his overall effectiveness down there, his career track record, and scouting reports, he's at worst an adequate MLB 5th starter (5.00 ERA) and very likely a 4th starter (4.50). That could save your butt if there are two injuries to guys ahead of him, or if there's one injury after moving Bard to closer (which would make sense if the other 5 guys were going great and Aceves, etc., were struggling badly).

If Cook pitches especially well in long relief and spot starts, you can look to trade him to an NL contender in a win-now frame of mind, quite possibly for precisely the sort of guy they don't have in AAA -- a kid on options who can be a decent 5th starter. That opens up a roster spot for a short reliever, e.g. a revitalized Melancon.

It's immensely premature to try and figure out who the odd man out will be among the current 5 plus Dice-K.

*They converted all three candidates for the AAA-option role to the pen: Wilson, Mortenson, and Tazawa. The first two make sense, the third now seems premature unless there's still a medical reason. If there isn't one, they should stretch him out as a starter when they send him down to make room for Cook.

Edited by Eric Van, 26 April 2012 - 03:34 PM.