133 replies to this topic

[possumbait]

Yesterday was really really bad, and it is appropriate that Cherington, Henry, and Valentine talk things over behind closed doors.

Surely they talked about the bullpen. Everybody and their dog will talk about getting Bard and even Doubront in the bullpen to shore that immediate problem up to fix it, but I believe such would be a very unfortunate knee jerk reaction. Let me throw a list of 'stuff' out there that I think has more meaning than14 runs in two innings:
1. The Sox would have killed...killed... to have the type of starts Bard and Doubront have had in 2012 back in last September.
2. Easier to find a good reliever than a good starter, though it may not seem that way right now.
3. Bard does not (apparently) have a closer's mentality. That is what I heard last year.
4. Bard wants to start. I hear we should have players 'comfortable in their role.' At least that meme is invoked in various ways regarding place in the lineup, whether a reliever goes in the 7th inning or 8th...so forth. If you respect that stuff, respect that Bard wants to start.
5. Managing. How might Aceves pitched yesterday if he was not stored in glass as 'the closer?' Yesterday, he hadn't pitched for 4 days or so, yet he did great last year pitching every couple of days under all sorts of conditions. Would our record have been a wee bit better at this stage if awkward 'getting to know the team' type decisions, or just stupid ones, have been reversed?
6. You have to be worried that Lester going forward will be the 2011 version, that Clay Buchholz's window has closed, and that Beckett will have a cold sore or something that impacts his pitching. The starting pitching seems to hang by a thread too, no?

Look, the deal is the Sox are either in on a pennant at the end of this season or not. The question to ask: Would they be better served with dealing with a handful of bums in the back of a rotation or a handful of bums in the back of a bullpen? And having that problem through May, which would be easier to fix?

[Rudy Pemberton]

I'm with you. Moving Bard and Doubront to the pen is not in the organization's long term interests. If the team is still struggling when Matsuzaka returns, I'd be more inclined to move him to the pen or try to trade him, frankly. At this point, I'd be tempted to put Aceves back into his old relief role, name Atchison as the nominal closer and bring Wilson up to get some experience. If, in a few weeks the team is still going badly, there's really no reason to be giving innings to guys like Padilla.

[geoduck no quahog]

Would they be better served with dealing with a handful of bums in the back of a rotation or a handful of bums in the back of a bullpen?

Thoughtful post.

My opinion is that losing a lead kicks the shit out of team more than having back of the rotation mediocrity that forces lineups to dig deep. There is great satisfaction in overcoming a deficit 30% of the time and there is great pain in losing a lead 50% of the time. Does that make any sense?

Also, back of rotation suckage league-wide is the norm, and not necessarily a playoff preventer. A disfunctional bullpen feels more dire to me.

Of course, the real issue is what causes a disfunctional bullpen, because most bullpens are problematic.

[Wingack]

The Sox are now apparently talking to Oswalt. I don't think signing him is a panic move. But it would lead to moving Bard or Doubrant to the pen helping to shore up that area.

[Foulkey Reese]

The Sox are now apparently talking to Oswalt. I don't think signing him is a panic move. But it would lead to moving Bard or Doubrant to the pen helping to shore up that area.

Where did you see this?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Is moving Buchholz to the pen to make room for Cook an option?

If it's easier on his body to throw multiple days rather than multiple innings with his 2010-11 mechanics, I would be all for that.

[possumbait]

Thoughtful post.

My opinion is that losing a lead kicks the shit out of team more than having back of the rotation mediocrity that forces lineups to dig deep. There is great satisfaction in overcoming a deficit 30% of the time and there is great pain in losing a lead 50% of the time. Does that make any sense?

Also, back of rotation suckage league-wide is the norm, and not necessarily a playoff preventer. A disfunctional bullpen feels more dire to me.

Of course, the real issue is what causes a disfunctional bullpen, because most bullpens are problematic.

On a visceral emotional level, you are right.

However, that 162 game thing -- slow and steady -- looms large in my analysis. And I can't lose the implications of last September...they had what all would consider now a good enough bullpen and it did not make the difference. Finally, if they chose to empty out some of the farm for competing this year, live arms in relief would come more easily than reliable starters. We learned this last year also.

[Wingack]

Where did you see this?

CBSSportsline fantasty news this morning on Oswalt says the Sox and Cards are in contact with him according to FoxSports.

[amfox1]

The Sox are now apparently talking to Oswalt. I don't think signing him is a panic move. But it would lead to moving Bard or Doubrant to the pen helping to shore up that area.

Even if they signed him, he would need 45-60 days to be ready (see Pettitte, Andy for reference). He ain't walking through the door tomorrow. By then, this team could be 10-15 games out of a playoff spot (they are four out, as of this morning).

[czar]

Even if they signed him, he would need 45-60 days to be ready (see Pettitte, Andy for reference). He ain't walking through the door tomorrow. By then, this team could be 10-15 games out of a playoff spot (they are four out, as of this morning).

Unlike Pettitte, he has been throwing bullpen sessions every few days or so according to Ken Rosenthal. He should be ready in <= 1 month whenever he signs with someone.

[SoxFanPJ]

Some times psychology gets in the way of sabermetrics, preventing players from translating their talents into expected results. With a new manager, new general manager and carry over of poor results from last season this team needs a winning streak and the bullpen to settle down. Obviously if he proves successful in the conversion Daniel Bard would be much more valuable as a starting pitcher instead of as a reliever.

It is inevitable that Bard ends up in the bullpen a some point this season, because the only other option is for him to get shut down in the fall. There is no way the Red Sox are going to let him pitch a full season in the rotation then the playoffs coming off back to back seasons of 74.2 and 73.0 innings pitched. The question is does the reactionary move of putting him back in the bullpen make sense now?

If Bailey was going to be back sooner then he likely is and if we could count on Melancon to be an average closer, then I say there is no way you consider moving Bard back to the bullpen. At this point if Bailey is not back until late July or early August, I don't think you want to count on Melancon or Aceves to finish games long term. Ideally you need to upgrade three bullpen spots.

Albers and Thomas are the obvious spots to be upgraded. By putting Bard in the closer's role you can push everyone else down into lesser roles.

The Red Sox have two ways to go if they move Bard back to the pen now.

Option #1: Re-engage on Oswalt. Sign Oswalt, move Bard to bullpen immediately and use one of the fungible veterans in AAA until Oswalt is ready.

Option #2: Call up fungible veteran pitchers from AAA until Matsuzaka is ready and move Bard to the bullpen immediately.

By the end of May, I think your pitching staff is best if it looks like this:

Rotation: SP1: Lester, SP2: Beckett, SP3: Buchholz, SP4: Doubront, SP5: Matsuzka
Bullpen: Closer: Bard, Aceves (RH), Melancon (RH) Morales (LH), Padilla (RH), Hill (LH), Tazawa (RH).

With Aceves, Padilla and Tazawa you have three RH relievers that should be able to pitch multiple innings. Aceves is the primary set up man, but capable of coming in in the 7th. Melancon is primarily your 7th inning reliever. Padilla and Tazawa are your long men in the pen and Morales and Hill are for LH match ups.

Then late in the season and potentially in the playoffs you have Bard and Bailey to finish games an all of the sudden Melancon could be your 4th man i the pen and the pen looks a lot better.

[Doctor G]

There have to be a few position players on this roster who are wondering why the best relief pitcher on the team Daniel Bard is sitting on the bench with them instead of sitting in the bullpen ready to help protect leads or close games.

With the possible emergence of Doubront as a viable starter. The long term benefit of converting Bard is a lot more important to Bard and his agent than it is to the Red Sox who developed him as a reliever and one of the better relievers in the AL over the last two years.

[Rasputin]

With the possible emergence of Doubront as a viable starter. The long term benefit of converting Bard is a lot more important to Bard and his agent than it is to the Red Sox who developed him as a reliever and one of the better relievers in the AL over the last two years.

No it isn't. It absolutely isn't. Bard has the potential to be a pretty damn good starter, certainly much better than and en of the rotation guy who's selling point is that he isn't terrible.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

3. Bard does not (apparently) have a closer's mentality. That is what I heard last year.
4. Bard wants to start. I hear we should have players 'comfortable in their role.' At least that meme is invoked in various ways regarding place in the lineup, whether a reliever goes in the 7th inning or 8th...so forth. If you respect that stuff, respect that Bard wants to start.

Good post. Wanted to say something about these two points.

Assuming it is true that Bard is more comfortable as a non-closer/starter, the problem is that with Bailey down, you are forcing other people into roles they are not suited for/comfortable with.

I understand that it is generally better to have Bard as a league average or better starter rather than throw 70 shut down innings in the bullpen. But it is also better to put guys in the bullpen into situations where they can succeed rather than have them doing things they aren't able to do. And apparently - at least in this era of baseball - the last three outs are tougher to get than any other three outs during the course of the game.

They appear to need someone who can get those last three outs and it's not AA. And if it's not Padilla (who people talked about closing for the Dodgers last year), who is it going to be other than Bard?

[Buzzkill Pauley]

No it isn't. It absolutely isn't. Bard has the potential to be a pretty damn good starter, certainly much better than and en of the rotation guy who's selling point is that he isn't terrible.

Right -- Bard and Doubront are likely, though certainly not locks, to outperform Beckett and Lester as starters over the next four years.

That's why you convert them to starters.

[BrooklynDog45]

This doesn't sound good from Bill Madden article today.

"And this doesn’t include the near player revolt he had on his hands the very first week of spring training when, the Daily News has learned, he got all over shortstop Mike Aviles in what sources described as “a very ugly scene” during infield drills. After a group of Red Sox players confronted him with outrage, Valentine had to apologize to Aviles."

Read more: http://www.nydailyne...5#ixzz1sn1Oj5a6

[Rasputin]

Right -- Bard and Doubront are likely, though certainly not locks, to outperform Beckett and Lester as starters over the next four years.

No they aren't.

[LogansDad]

Part of the problem I am seeing with moving Bard and/or Doubront to the pen right now, is that the other 60% of the rotation hasn't shown that they can start games effectively more than once game in a row this season.

I agree that having a weak back end of the rotation is easier to deal with than a weak back end of the pen. I also agree that two of Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz will probably revert to being good starters. But moving Bard/Doubront and bringing up cannon fodder to create what currently is a rotation of 100% suck doesn't seem like a great idea.

At this point, I guess Bobby is in sort of a "pick your poison" scenario. Do you want to lose games early or lose them late? Hopefully Cook and Hill are both ready soon. A rotation of Lester, Beckett, Cook, Buchholz, and Doubront, with a bullpen anchored by Bard and Hill would be nice, and may be enough to get this team on track.

[Dogman2]

Right -- Bard and Doubront are likely, though certainly not locks, to outperform Beckett and Lester as starters over the next four years.

That's why you convert them to starters.

You said something similar yesterday. You said if the team was blowing it all up you trade Lester because of the value he would bring back simply because Doubront projects to be 80-90% of what Lester will bring and cost that much less. Now you are saying Bard, in addition to Doubront, are 'likely' to outperform those 2 guys.

What is your basis for these statements?

[ngruz25]

Moving Doubront or Bard to the pen seems ill conceived. They have both looked fantastic, and definitely have me trusting them more than Buchholz. I assume that the idea is based on two separate reasons:

1. That they're better pitchers than anything else in the bullpen currently. That's almost certainly true for Bard, maybe not as much for Doubront, who doesn't have quite the track record of success as a reliever. Regardless, this line of reasoning is obviously flawed as we'd be trading a couple innings of excellent pen performance for several innings of awfulness (Cook) and whatever we'd get from Daisuke. And don't think that Aaron Cook is going to be anything better than terrible - he was a good deal worse on the road than at home the last two seasons. He can't even strike out AAA hitters.

2. The need to cap Bard and Doubront's innings anyways. Frankly, I'm not sure how pressing that need is. Texas's experiments in converting relievers to starters without onerous innings caps seems to be going quite well. Colby Lewis, Matt Harrison, C.J. Wilson, and Alexi Ogando all saw drastic increases in IP will no ill effects. Instead of yo-yo'ing Bard and Doubront around by capping their IP as starters and moving them to the pen later in the season, which in my mind is just as stressful on their arms as keeping them in the rotation all season, why doesn't the FO and coaching staff work on managing the number of stressful innings thrown? Of course, Bobby V doesn't seem to be on board with this strategy.

[Rasputin]

Part of the problem I am seeing with moving Bard and/or Doubront to the pen right now, is that the other 60% of the rotation hasn't shown that they can start games effectively more than once game in a row this season.

If they don't turn it around then nothing will matter.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

You said something similar yesterday. You said if the team was blowing it all up you trade Lester because of the value he would bring back simply because Doubront projects to be 80-90% of what Lester will bring and cost that much less. Now you are saying Bard, in addition to Doubront, are 'likely' to outperform those 2 guys.

What is your basis for these statements?

Primarily MLE's in the case of Doubront, and MLB performance for Bard. And adjusting for the fact that Bard is 5 years younger than Beckett, while Doubront is 4 years younger than Lester.

Beckett would be 33-36 in that timeframe, while Lester would be 29-32. Both older guys are already showing decline in peripherals, while Bard and Doubront are showing by far the best stuff on the pitching staff this season.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Part of the problem I am seeing with moving Bard and/or Doubront to the pen right now, is that the other 60% of the rotation hasn't shown that they can start games effectively more than once game in a row this season.

Not exactly. Lester and Beckett have each put together back-to-back good starts and each had one bad one. Lester was reportedly ill for his bad start and Beckett's was his first start of the season. Those two will be fine.

Buchholz is obviously a problem with three terrible outings in a row. I don't see what anyone can do about it. I don't think moving him to bullpen solves the problem. It just moves his awfulness somewhere else and replaces him with a pitcher who wil be mediocre at best. He's just going to have to pitch better, which we know for a fact he can, or the Red Sox will have do the unlikely and make a major acquisition mid-season.

[JohntheBaptist]

Primarily MLE's in the case of Doubront, and MLB performance for Bard. And adjusting for the fact that Bard is 5 years younger than Beckett, while Doubront is 4 years younger than Lester.

Beckett would be 33-36 in that timeframe, while Lester would be 29-32. Both older guys are already showing decline in peripherals, while Bard and Doubront are showing by far the best stuff on the pitching staff this season.

Not one of these things tell me that Doubront/ Bard are "likely" to outperform Lester over that period.

[dbn]

It is certainly more valuable to have player X perform well as a starter than perform well as a reliever, unless the team has 5 better starters. Right now, I don't think we have 4 starting pitchers better than Bard/Doubront. The "problem" is that these two have (so far) outperformed the three starters that are not candidates for the bullpen. That is likely to change, in time, but the bullpen is losing games now.

Rotation: SP1: Lester, SP2: Beckett, SP3: Buchholz, SP4: Doubront, SP5: Matsuzka
Bullpen: Closer: Bard, Aceves (RH), Melancon (RH) Morales (LH), Padilla (RH), Hill (LH), Tazawa (RH).

I could get on board with that.

Right -- Bard and Doubront are likely, though certainly not locks, to outperform Beckett and Lester as starters over the next four years.

That's why you convert them to starters.

Whether or not this is true, it brings up the point that the future need also be considered. In 2013 the rotation looks to be (without trying to predict trades/injuries): Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, and ?. In 2014: Lester (club option), Beckett, Buchholz, ? and ?. The top pitching prospects are still young (Ranaudo, 22, AA; Barnes, 21, A). Lester, Beckett, Lackey are all free agents in 2015. (Aceves also reaches FA in 2015, Bard in 2016, Doubront 2018)

I certainly don't suggest that they sacrifice wins this season for the sake of crystal balling the 2015 rotation. I'd hope that their future plans for a young pitcher like Bard is only a small factor -- producing wins this season being the large factor -- in their decision making. Swapping a pitcher back and forth from pen and rotation may not be the best thing for his development, but it probably isn't the worst, either; and losing games sucks.

After typing all of this, I think this is where I stand. Keep the rotation the same for now, give Tazawa a more prominent role in the pen, and hope for the best for the next few turns through the rotation. If either (1) Doubront or Bard begin to struggle to make it trough 5 innings with good results, or (2) the pen continues to lose games at an unacceptable rate, move one of Bard/Doubront to the pen and replace him with Cook or Ohlendorf (or Duckworth, Wilson, etc... whoever is pitching best in Pawtucket.) Otherwise wait until Matsuzaka returns, move Bard to the pen (unless he has been lights out in the rotation, in which case Doubront goes to the pen).

[Eddie Jurak]

Excellent post, possum. If Bard wanted to close, wouldn't he have asked for the job at some point over the winter/spring?

[MikeM]

No it isn't. It absolutely isn't. Bard has the potential to be a pretty damn good starter, certainly much better than and en of the rotation guy who's selling point is that he isn't terrible.

Completely agree with that, at least if we are conceding any seasonal concerns there in favor of placing the primary emphasis on the big picture. Now from a "what's in this team's best interests for the 2012 season" standpoint though, the apparently now-or-never view that Daniel Bard needed to be converted got fairly debatable the moment Bailey (and the realistic potential he would/could fill the fairly predictable void that was being created, especially among those concerned with what they saw out of Melancon this spring) went down, imo.

It's still early of course, but i think it's relevant to note a reminder here that this team went 14-14 in games John Lackey started last year. Thus far in 2012, we are 0-2 in the games started by Daniel Bard. Given my personal projection that having Bard in the bullpen could/would have of salvaged two of the outside loses we've seen, and even while decidedly conceding both those games Bard pitched as loses for potential replacement player X, i know i'm having a hard chalking this conversion up as a current win on the 2012 scorecard atm.

[mauidano]

Oswalt isn't saving the farm. This is a low percentage move. Why do you think no one else has signed him? Is there more to the story here that we don't know about? Throwing bullpens every few days isn't facing major league hitters. Even if he was signed, at least a month would be conservative. Late June more likely. By then a lot will have changed on the roster anyway. Meh. Grasping at straws.

[Sprowl]

The panic has begun in earnest, and so has the dismantling of the starting rotation.

https://twitter.com/...!/jamorosinoon7

Daniel Bard will be skipped in rotation & will be available to come out of bullpen before next start.

[Laser Show]

The panic has begun in earnest, and so has the dismantling of the starting rotation.

I REALLY don't like this. They need to pick a role for him and keep him there. Otherwise they're risking his arm and holding back his continued development.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The panic has begun in earnest, and so has the dismantling of the starting rotation.

Coincidentally, Aaron Cook was scheduled to pitch today (rained out), and would of course lineup for Friday as well. They can call it temporary for now, but if Bard does get used tomorrow or Tuesday in Minnesota, and is successful, they'll jump on his success/comfort/whatever and call up Cook for Friday and the Bard in the rotation era is over for this year.

Panic indeed.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I REALLY don't like this. They need to pick a role for him and keep him there. Otherwise they're risking his arm and holding back his continued development.

BobbyV has picked a role for him -- he wanted Bard in the bullpen from Day 1. It would shock me to see him start another game for the Sox this season.

Well, here's hoping Dan gets another shot in 2013.

[JohntheBaptist]

Coincidentally, Aaron Cook was scheduled to pitch today (rained out), and would of course lineup for Friday as well. They can call it temporary for now, but if Bard does get used tomorrow or Tuesday in Minnesota, and is successful, they'll jump on his success/comfort/whatever and call up Cook for Friday and the Bard in the rotation era is over for this year.

Panic indeed.

Exactly. This is always how it works--if he's "available," I really think it means he's there. It will become way too attractive a luxury. I'm with Buzzkill, I'd be shocked to see him start again this season.

[LeoCarrillo]

Today's rain likely just washed out the road not traveled, the one down which Bard wins 15 games and becomes a cheap rotation fixture for years. Damn.

Dice-K on the way. Oswalt suddenly worth spending the money on. Bard's closing.

[joyofsox]

This doesn't sound good from Bill Madden article today.

"And this doesn’t include the near player revolt he had on his hands the very first week of spring training when, the Daily News has learned, he got all over shortstop Mike Aviles in what sources described as “a very ugly scene” during infield drills. After a group of Red Sox players confronted him with outrage, Valentine had to apologize to Aviles."

Read more: http://www.nydailyne...5#ixzz1sn1Oj5a6

Did any of the Sox writers have anything on this? I don't recall reading anything.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It's just too convenient for them to use Bard in relief against Minnesota because he's "available", push him in terms of pitch count (30-40) in the name of locking down a game, and then declare him unavailable to start Friday, opening the door to call up Cook before he can opt out. And then they're "stuck" with keeping Bard in the bullpen. They might as well admit that's what they're doing instead of trying to couch it as a less panicky move.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Today's rain likely just washed out the road not traveled, the one down which Bard wins 15 games and becomes a cheap rotation fixture for years. Damn.

We'll see that fork again in 2013 -- Bailey's still under club control for two more years after this one.

[MikeM]

Well, here's hoping Dan gets another shot in 2013.

Which will still leave 3 remaining years on that team control plate, another year to fully evaluate what we already have, and a better set of surrounding circumstances (well hopefully, with the money coming off the books) in the attempt to make a Bard-less bullpen work then this winter's limited flexibility and penny-pinching allowed.

Sounds logical to me. Well, unless we continue to really suck for an extended period of time going forward here.

[Rasputin]

It's not necessarily panic but I don't like it either.

There's at least some chance that they just skip a start and he's back starting next week, right?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

We'll see that fork again in 2013 -- Bailey's still under club control for two more years after this one.

Hope you're right. Next year, they have Lester, Beckett, Buchholz, Lackey, and Doubront under contract/control. If Doubront manages to hold on to a rotation spot through the majority of the season, or even just continues to pitch as well as he has so far regardless of role, he's going to be in the rotation mix next spring. The temptation to keep Bard in the bullpen might still be to great, especially given Bailey's fragility, perceived or real.

[LeoCarrillo]

We'll see that fork again in 2013 -- Bailey's still under club control for two more years after this one.

Hear, hear! Would've been nice to see him work the repertoire for another start or two against the AL so-so's, though, especially after he just pitched so well against the Rays (7 BB notwithstanding).

[greek_gawd_of_walks]

They have no idea what we're doing. The players, coaches, and management look like a bunch of amateurs. Just clueless.

Edited by greek_gawd_of_walks, 22 April 2012 - 05:01 PM.

[JohntheBaptist]

It's not necessarily panic but I don't like it either.

There's at least some chance that they just skip a start and he's back starting next week, right?

I'm trying to look at it this way too, but if youre Bobby, you already wanted him there to begin with, you "need" him there now... it won't be too tough to work it just like RedHawks put it. He has plenty of reasons to find ways to make hom stick back there.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I'm trying to look at it this way too, but if youre Bobby, you already wanted him there to begin with, you "need" him there now... it won't be too tough to work it just like RedHawks put it. He has plenty of reasons to find ways to make hom stick back there.

BobbyV's the same guy who buried Kenny Rogers as his LH set-up man in Texas, right? For four years?

I'm pretty sure it's that Bobby Valentine.

[E5 Yaz]

Valentine said the alternative of having Lester and Beckett pitching on two days of extra rest was not appealing.
Bard would be available to pitch out of the bullpen on Monday and perhaps Tuesday.
Of course the Red Sox could always change the plan by finding a different starter for Friday and leaving Bard in the bullpen.

http://www.boston.co...being_skip.html

Skipping a fifth starter is no reason to panic in general. Unless, you know, there are other reasons to panic

[TomRicardo]

I am have very skeptical of Bard's ability to start however Buchholz is the man at this point I would think about moving from the rotation now.

[lexrageorge]

If Aaron Cook can duplicate what Bard would do in 2012, or come to about 85% of Bard, and if Bard's presence can improve the overall talent in the pen, then such a move would be all about winning games in 2012. It's not necessarily ideal for Bard, but it's not exactly start now-or-never for Bard either. Derek Lowe was 29 when he became a full-time starter.

[Super Nomario]

http://www.boston.co...being_skip.html

Skipping a fifth starter is no reason to panic in general. Unless, you know, there are other reasons to panic

It makes sense for them to skip Bard in cases like this. It will keep his IP down in his first year starting in five years, and of the starters he has by far the most experience as a RP.

[rembrat]

It might be too early for this but why not trade for someone like Grant Balfour? He isn't owed much this season and he immediately stabilizes the pen allowing everyone to move down a notch.

Dangle Lars and see if they bite.

[joyofsox]

PeteAbe tweet:

"Bard could pitch in relief tomorrow. 8th inning Valentine said."

http://twitter.com/#!/PeteAbe/status/194171586176225280