66 replies to this topic

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

You're right, 6-8 is just as likely as 7-7. Against the iron of the league.

That's not what happened though. The iron of the league has destroyed them. I'm not sure why we should be taking solace in the fact that they've played tough teams so far. They've gotten destroyed by the good teams. Isn't this team supposed to have been good?

Pythag doesn't lie. This team has sucked balls this season.

[glennhoffmania]

If "the players don't want to play for him" is on the players, and not the manager, they sure, switch Bobby to 20% and the players to 35% in my formula. I can easily see that argument being valid. But if the manager is responsible for getting the team on his side, then I'll stick with my ratios.

I agree. The players are the ones not getting it done on the field, but if* the manager has alienated the team and created a toxic and stressful environment then the problem begins before the players even take the field. This is like a boss causing a ton of distractions in an office and then when a shitty memo is written everyone only points to the author.

*I'm saying "if" because we don't know for sure what's really going on in that clubhouse but my guess is it ain't too pretty.

Edited by glennhoffmania, 23 April 2012 - 08:43 AM.

[BoSox Rule]

I'd have to say a huge portion of the blame goes to the DL right now. There's, what, like $60M maybe more on there right now?

[someoneanywhere]

So I know what the response to this is likely to be, but:

How does McClure get a free pass here? An absolute free pass? Bobby V was brought in to deal with general problems, McClure specific ones. And the guy he replaced, lest we forget, was ridden out of town on a Cherington rail.

The specific problems are still very much here. I'll grant that it might be too early to ask him to eat some pie, but someone needs to be cutting him a piece.

[Harry Hooper]

So I know what the response to this is likely to be, but:

How does McClure get a free pass here? An absolute free pass? Bobby V was brought in to deal with general problems, McClure specific ones. And the guy he replaced, lest we forget, was ridden out of town on a Cherington rail.

The specific problems are still very much here. I'll grant that it might be too early to ask him to eat some pie, but someone needs to be cutting him a piece.

Perhaps McClure's most attractive trait for the Sox was being known as a bit of a hardass, with his starting pitchers doing more extensive workouts between starts than other pitching coaches. How effective he is as a pitching coach remains to be seen.

[yecul]

Blame for what? They were not in the upper tier entering the season and have been squashed by superior opponents. They will now play some inferior ones and will post more wins. At the end of the season they'll settle into a non-playoff finishing mid-to-upper 80s in wins.

This is what they were to enter the season and this is still what they are now. If people had fantasy thoughts of everything going smoothly and everyone returning to former glory and everyone avoiding injury... well... who gives a shit. Those people say what they want. What we want isn't what usually happens.

It is possible that everything lines up and they blow the doors off the league. As players age and get injured the likelihood of them returning to former glory diminishes, so those odds have to be considered lower than the odds of aging and broken players playing like aging and broken players. Beckett can't go in a time machine to his mid-to-late 20s. Buchholz can't replace his spine. Youkilis isn't allowed to bring a walker onto the field of play... I don't think.

What can you do?

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

That's not what happened though. The iron of the league has destroyed them. I'm not sure why we should be taking solace in the fact that they've played tough teams so far. They've gotten destroyed by the good teams. Isn't this team supposed to have been good?

Pythag doesn't lie. This team has sucked balls this season.

Just for comparison, Tampa Bay also played its first 13 game against the "iron." NYY, DET, BOS, TOR. They ended up 7-6 (They'e now 9-7 after taking two of three from the non-iron Twins). The Red Sox were 4-9 after a a very similar first-13-game schedule. Could luck, randomess etc account for three games in any stretch of 13? Possibly. It certainly could count for one game, or two.

Blame for what? They were not in the upper tier entering the season and have been squashed by superior opponents.

Squashed? They lost two one-run games to Detroit and another against Tampa. Of their 10 losses, five have come by three runs or fewer. They've suffered just three blowouts (defined at -5 or worse). They are losing, but most of the games have been competitive or even winnable. Luck is maginfied in one-run games, especially. Turn those three 1-run losses around and we're looking at very reasonable 7-7 record right now. If that were the case, we'd all be somewhat disappointed but I think satisfied overall given the schedule and injury situation.

They are losing. They are not getting squashed. A lot comes down to luck.

Edited by Gene Conleys Plane Ticket, 23 April 2012 - 09:15 AM.

[Captaincoop]

I agree. The players are the ones not getting it done on the field, but if* the manager has alienated the team and created a toxic and stressful environment then the problem begins before the players even take the field. This is like a boss causing a ton of distractions in an office and then when a shitty memo is written everyone only points to the author.

*I'm saying "if" because we don't know for sure what's really going on in that clubhouse but my guess is it ain't too pretty.

Mostly the same group of players just got their previous manager fired after he gave them an atmosphere about as inhospitable and stressful as the womb. Now they fail for a hardass manager and it's his fault, too?

Not buying it.

Imagine if the Sox were 10-4 right now and someone was on here making the argument that Bobby V. deserved the credit for their on-field production because of the environment he created in the clubhouse? They'd be crucified.

[lexrageorge]

Blame for what? They were not in the upper tier entering the season and have been squashed by superior opponents. They will now play some inferior ones and will post more wins. At the end of the season they'll settle into a non-playoff finishing mid-to-upper 80s in wins.

This is what they were to enter the season and this is still what they are now. If people had fantasy thoughts of everything going smoothly and everyone returning to former glory and everyone avoiding injury... well... who gives a shit. Those people say what they want. What we want isn't what usually happens.

It is possible that everything lines up and they blow the doors off the league. As players age and get injured the likelihood of them returning to former glory diminishes, so those odds have to be considered lower than the odds of aging and broken players playing like aging and broken players. Beckett can't go in a time machine to his mid-to-late 20s. Buchholz can't replace his spine. Youkilis isn't allowed to bring a walker onto the field of play... I don't think.

What can you do?

Except that I don't think Henry & Co. expect an 80-win team from a $175M payroll. Neither do the fans. If they are an 80-win team with a bunch of broken down players, then the blame goes to the GM's (past and present).

[stevman17]

Great idea for a thread. I haven't read through everyone elses, but here is my take.

1. Bobby Valentine-- 1 slice -Managers can only hurt a team. Bobby V probably hurts this team more than most managers, whether it be from bunting or batting Punto leadoff. In the end, I don't think even the worst managers can hurt a team by more than a game or two, so I'm not that concerned.

2. Ben Cherington - 1 slice - Theo Epstein - 20 slices-- I blame Theo mainly for the Lackey, Crawford, Gonzalez deals. Beltre was a GOD. Whoever decided it was a good idea to shift a 32 year old who is already a great 1Bman over to 3B, to supplant who was arguably the best 3Bman in baseball the year before, was insane. (Not to mention Beltre/Youk would have been $8 million cheaper than Youk/Gonzalez.) The Crawford deal is self explanatory. I felt like we had guys as good as Crawford in the minor leagues at the time, made no sense to me but I just assumed the front office was smarter than myself.

3. Ownership - 78 slices -- It is apparent to me that ownership gave up on being smart a couple years ago.

4. Players-- I don't blame them at all.

5. Fans-- Fans create the profits for the team to go out and snag above average players for elite money.

[Marbleheader]

[tonyarmasjr]

Winner. I don't even care how you distributed it.

[glennhoffmania]

Mostly the same group of players just got their previous manager fired after he gave them an atmosphere about as inhospitable and stressful as the womb. Now they fail for a hardass manager and it's his fault, too?

Not buying it.

Imagine if the Sox were 10-4 right now and someone was on here making the argument that Bobby V. deserved the credit for their on-field production because of the environment he created in the clubhouse? They'd be crucified.

There is a middle ground though. Maybe Tito wasn't strict enough or enough of a disciplinarian. But you can bring in a manager who will run a tighter ship without throwing players under the bus, causing various off the field dramas, and destroying any positive clubhouse atmosphere. Being a hardass is one thing. Being completely dysfunctional while trying to be a hardass is another.

And since you said "too" at the end of your first paragraph I assume you think that people don't blame the players for last year's collapse. That's far from the truth.

[tims4wins]

Off the top of my head, you missed Tito, Wally the Green Monster, and Jerry Remy

[86spike]

There is a middle ground though. Maybe Tito wasn't strict enough or enough of a disciplinarian. But you can bring in a manager who will run a tighter ship without throwing players under the bus, causing various off the field dramas, and destroying any positive clubhouse atmosphere. Being a hardass is one thing. Being completely dysfunctional while trying to be a hardass is another.

And since you said "too" at the end of your first paragraph I assume you think that people don't blame the players for last year's collapse. That's far from the truth.

has Valentine been a hardass?

I hardly think that's the case.

FFS, even his most egregious action (your "throwing players under the bus" moment about Youks) was actually utter amidst a stream of ra-ra quips about how he had some good at-bats and was coming around.

This isn't Larry Bowa.

Edited by 86spike, 23 April 2012 - 12:19 PM.

[Al Zarilla]

As you wish...

That ratio would be like reversed after about 10 minutes with me.

[dbn]

Who do i blame for the Sox crappy start?


Tigers 0- 3
Jays 1-2
Rangers 0-2
Yankees 0-2
Rays 3-1

Right now I hold the Rays mostly blameless, but all the other teams can be blamed for being better than the Sox.

Team RecordvsNotRedSox RecordvsRedSox
Det 7-6 3-0
Tor 7-5 2-1
Tam 8-4 1-3
Tex 11-3 2-0
NY 7-6 2-0
-------------
  40-24 10-4
  63%  71%

I guess we're 8% worse than average?