66 replies to this topic

[drtooth]

Seeing folks posting here and in others social media locals blaming various members of this franchise, it made me wonder who and what portion of blame they take. No one person in this organization is totally to blame, but no one here is blameless. Let's look at some of the suspects.

1. Bobby Valentine-- He has already had issues with Aviles (see Bill Madden today) in ST and Youks (questioning his effort??). His leaving in Bard too long on Patriot's Day (when he seemed gassed) and leaving in Morales too long to then face LHP-killer Napoli. He didn't, however, put this piece of garbage bullpen together and he can't go out on the field and play. The questions for me is whether he can control this clubhouse and has the years away from being an ML manager hurt him.

2. Ben Cherington (and for that matter Theo Epstein)-- He and Theo put this team together. Ben left Valentine with a group of 4th OF's for RF and a bullpen that is an unmitigated disaster. He also didn't exactly support the manager with the Youks incident, further showing that Valentine was not his hire. He was the one who wanted Crawford here even though the lineup is very LH. One also has to wonder how much power Cherington really has, aka-is LL really running the show and the GM is just a figurehead.

3. Ownership--What is their end goal here? Are they now more interested in selling merchandise, "expanding the brand" or Liverpool? JWH has laid very low since his disastrous showing on F&M. Is Lucchino running the baseball ops or is allowing Cherington.

4. Players-- They are the ones not making the plays and blowing up late in games (talking to you bullpen). If you look at the Pedrioia comment, do they feel that the players should run the clubhouse? Didn't they lose that after Sept and essentially getting their manager canned?

5. Fans--I decided to add this after reading the Sweet Caroline thread. Are there are large portion of people attending there for the event and not the game? I realize that most going are not the hardcore nuts we all are, I spent half an inning Friday explaining to a good portion of my section what the Karim Garcia line was about. I heard one person asking who the two guys that came in with Timlin were. Will this franchise make any needed changes as long as they sell out (questionable as the streak may be) Fenway and sell their merchandise?


Have at it SoSH!!

[Lose Remerswaal]

Bobby V: 40%. He controls the day to day lineup and pitching changes, and should be setting the tone in the dugout/clubhouse. He loses the leaders, he loses the team
Ben C: 25%. This assumes we are leaving Theo blameless -- he made the deals that set up this team with no decent backups in case someone went down. Shoppach? Darnell? Punto?? When you've already gone through Lin and Repko and are trading for a guy with issues, who is hitting under .100 (after a year with a .719 OPS), you're clutching at straws
Ownership: 20%. They've set the team up in the long run to succeed. Theo was done, perhaps they could have done better than Cherrington. But they could have agreed to spend more money this year and started off stronger. They are making a mint off of Fenway 100 (I believe they don't have to share revenue on merchandise with that logo with the other 29 teams, and they've sold a shitload of that merchandise).
Players: 15%. I started out with this at 25%, and keep lowering it. I haven't seen too many boneheaded plays by the players, offensively, defensively, or on the bases, but the pitchers (especially the bullpen) aren't being successful, and that's somewhat due to poor execution.
Fans: 0%. No one has interfered with a ball in play, no one has gotten caught having sex with a married player, no one has shot a player from a seat in the third base stands. 20-25% of the fans have always been there to get drunk and scream their lungs out and that hasn't changed. Half the fans on Friday have no idea who Karim Garcia is. A ticket and a beer sale is a ticket and a beer sale. Smarter fans in the seats won't make the team any better.

[johnmd20]

Bobby V: 40%. He controls the day to day lineup and pitching changes, and should be setting the tone in the dugout/clubhouse. He loses the leaders, he loses the team
Ben C: 25%. This assumes we are leaving Theo blameless -- he made the deals that set up this team with no decent backups in case someone went down. Shoppach? Darnell? Punto?? When you've already gone through Lin and Repko and are trading for a guy with issues, who is hitting under .100 (after a year with a .719 OPS), you're clutching at straws
Ownership: 20%. They've set the team up in the long run to succeed. Theo was done, perhaps they could have done better than Cherrington. But they could have agreed to spend more money this year and started off stronger. They are making a mint off of Fenway 100 (I believe they don't have to share revenue on merchandise with that logo with the other 29 teams, and they've sold a shitload of that merchandise).
Players: 15%. I started out with this at 25%, and keep lowering it. I haven't seen too many boneheaded plays by the players, offensively, defensively, or on the bases, but the pitchers (especially the bullpen) aren't being successful, and that's somewhat due to poor execution.
Fans: 0%. No one has interfered with a ball in play, no one has gotten caught having sex with a married player, no one has shot a player from a seat in the third base stands. 20-25% of the fans have always been there to get drunk and scream their lungs out and that hasn't changed. Half the fans on Friday have no idea who Karim Garcia is. A ticket and a beer sale is a ticket and a beer sale. Smarter fans in the seats won't make the team any better.

You're saying Valentine has more than two times the blame than the players on the field who are the ones playing poorly? That is a comical ratio borne not out of reality but emotional hatred. The players have 70% of the blame. Theo/Ben 20%. Bobby V maybe 10%.

[sfip]

I'll suggest a couple additional categories since the pitching problems stand out so much.
1) 3 pitching coaches in 3 years.
2) No Varitek around to handle the pitching, do homework on opposing hitters, etc.. As much as some will say this is overrated, a part of me wonders if they were too dependent on him for this when he was here, maybe even after he was a backup.

[geoduck no quahog]

Players: 98.376%
Ownership: 1.257%
Schedule: 0.366%
Managers: 0.001%

[Zomp]

I can't see how the players don't get at least 60% of the blame. Except for a very few, they aren't performing to their abilities (unless they've all regressed) and have made Valentine's job a lot harder than it should be.

Bobby V should definitely get some of the blame. Leaving Bard out there to throw 8 straight balls and walk in a run is pretty indefensible and the Morales decision was a head scratcher but other than that he can't really dictate the game besides putting his players out there and hoping they perform.

If I had to divvy it up I'd say players 60% and Bobby V/Ben at 20% each. Maybe Ben 30% for the terrible bullpen decisions and Bobby 10% because he's a fellow paesan.

[Seels]

I can't agree with you blaming the GM's so little. Sure, they can't help that the team performed so bad down the stretch or to open the season, but they can help several things that looked crazy when they happened.

The Beckett extension and signings of Lackey and Crawford didn't have many fans, and now that's almost 60 million given to guys that might be good for a total of 4-6 WAR per year. This killed any financial flexibility. They can be blamed for idiotic signings like Jenks, Punto, and Ross - none of which had any real defense to at the time.Meanwhile, the closest thing we've seen to a real 4th OF in the last few years was traded. They can be blamed for the construction of a bullpen which has ranged from mediocre to terrible since the end of 2009.

The team is extremely top heavy and has been for the last few years. This is the reason when we have an injury or two to these star players the entire team falters. Having guys like Punto Ross and Jenks would be great if they were expected to provide depth / minimal support, but when we need them to do more than that (and in the case of Jenks, pay him as such), there are problems.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Seeing folks posting here and in others social media locals blaming various members of this franchise, it made me wonder who and what portion of blame they take. No one person in this organization is totally to blame, but no one here is blameless. Let's look at some of the suspects.

1. Bobby Valentine-- He has already had issues with Aviles (see Bill Madden today) in ST and Youks (questioning his effort??). His leaving in Bard too long on Patriot's Day (when he seemed gassed) and leaving in Morales too long to then face LHP-killer Napoli. He didn't, however, put this piece of garbage bullpen together and he can't go out on the field and play. The questions for me is whether he can control this clubhouse and has the years away from being an ML manager hurt him.

Which Bill Madden article are you referencing? Can you give a link?

There is plenty of blame to go around but there's only so much a manager can do especialy with, as we're all realizing now, a really weak roster. Clubhouse issues, while I wouldn't deny that they play some role in any team's performance, are way, way overrated. They're just a way to impose a narrative structure on events that we don't fully understand. "The manager lost the clubhouse" is usually just a euphemism for "a group of well-paid professionals have failed to perform their jobs properly." A manager can be a motivator, sure. But any player who has reached this level of professional baseball or sports in general has made it largely by self-motivation that starts in childhood.

So, bottom line, I'd put maybe 5% of this on Valentine, maybe less (or more if I'm in a crappy mood).

2. Ben Cherington (and for that matter Theo Epstein)-- He and Theo put this team together. Ben left Valentine with a group of 4th OF's for RF and a bullpen that is an unmitigated disaster. He also didn't exactly support the manager with the Youks incident, further showing that Valentine was not his hire. He was the one who wanted Crawford here even though the lineup is very LH. One also has to wonder how much power Cherington really has, aka-is LL really running the show and the GM is just a figurehead.

I put it more on Theo than Ben at this point. If Cherington had $300 million to fool around with, then sure, comig up with this roster would be all his fault. But he's GM'ing with one if not both hands tied behind his back. Just as Dan Duquette deserved a good share of credit for 2004 (and 2003), Theo gets a very large share of blame for the debacle of April 2012.

It was Cherington (and Hoyer) who acquired Josh Beckett in the first place and regardless of people's emotions about Beckett, this team is going nowhere without him this year. So that's one in the plus column for Ben. His deals in the minus column are obvious. I'd hit him with, let's say, 15% of the blame so far.

3. Ownership--What is their end goal here? Are they now more interested in selling merchandise, "expanding the brand" or Liverpool? JWH has laid very low since his disastrous showing on F&M. Is Lucchino running the baseball ops or is allowing Cherington.

We don't really know the internal politics of the ownership and FO, but the buck has to stop at the top. From at least a PR perspective, Valentine was a bit of a tone-deaf hire and that's on Lucchino, who also, let us not forget, was the man who hired Grady Little. Anyway, on the pure principle of buck-stopping, 20% to ownership.

4. Players-- They are the ones not making the plays and blowing up late in games (talking to you bullpen). If you look at the Pedrioia comment, do they feel that the players should run the clubhouse? Didn't they lose that after Sept and essentially getting their manager canned?

Sixty (60) percent on the players. They're the ones actually out there playing the games and so far, they have sucked beyond belief (with some exceptions, of course). I don't care about the schedule, bad performance is bad performance and I don't think anyone is telling them to stink out the joint on a nightly basis the way they have.

5. Fans--I decided to add this after reading the Sweet Caroline thread. Are there are large portion of people attending there for the event and not the game? I realize that most going are not the hardcore nuts we all are, I spent half an inning Friday explaining to a good portion of my section what the Karim Garcia line was about. I heard one person asking who the two guys that came in with Timlin were. Will this franchise make any needed changes as long as they sell out (questionable as the streak may be) Fenway and sell their merchandise?

Zero. Come on, seriously?

Have at it SoSH!!

[tonyarmasjr]

85% Players
12% Ownership/GMs/Manager
3% Schedule
My math and methods are perfect.

[Lose Remerswaal]

If "the players don't want to play for him" is on the players, and not the manager, they sure, switch Bobby to 20% and the players to 35% in my formula. I can easily see that argument being valid. But if the manager is responsible for getting the team on his side, then I'll stick with my ratios.

[drtooth]

Here is the link to the Madden article (Sorry Gene)

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1065385

And the damning comment

And this doesn’t include the near player revolt he had on his hands the very first week of spring training when, the Daily News has learned, he got all over shortstop

Mike Aviles

in what sources described as “a very ugly scene” during infield drills. After a group of Red Sox players confronted him with outrage, Valentine had to apologize to Aviles.

Since then, Valentine has outwardly praised Aviles, whom he recently installed in the leadoff spot in the wake of Jacoby Ellsbury going on the DL with a shoulder injury.

Gene--Do I honestly think the fans at the game are to blame? Actually I don't but I figured someone would add that, so I thew it in as part of the choices after reading the "Sweet Caroline" thread

[Yaz4Ever]

Players 70%
Bobby V 15%
GM(s) 10%
Ownership 4%
Schedule 1%
Fans 0%

This team isn't much different in most places (not including bullpen) than it was last year. On paper, that team was supposed to win everything. We've lost the ghost of JD Drew and replaced him with Sweeney who has done fairly well. We've lost aging vets and hometown favorites in Wake and 'Tek and replaced them with dreck and Shoppach. We gave away all of our SS, but Aviles is fine with me. We've had injuries to Crawford (he sucked to begin the season anyhow, so no major loss over last year) and Ellsbury - this one hurts. Ross is doing what he can, but he's no Ellsbury. Injuries aside, other than Papi our team isn't hitting like it should and our defense has been eh, but our pitching has been worse than abysmal. They need to get the job done between the lines. Our bullpen completely sucks and our rotation isn't looking all that sharp either. This is where I blame Cherington. Yes, he inherited a bunch of crap from Theo in certain overpays (Lackey, Crawford, Jenks) etc that have limited his ability to get significant upgrades, but he's also netted us nearly nothing for guys like Scutaro and Lowrie who could've likely gotten more for us in terms of pitching help. It's not Ben's fault that Bailey got hurt, so that's not on him. Ownership should've done a better job with the compensation package before it became a sad comedy. They also lost a lot of respect from many of us (and possibly the players) in the way they handled the Tito and Theo issues. Bobby V has become a polarizing figure. Many fans despise him simply because he's not Tito. Many others despise him because he never saw a camera he didn't like. Others hate him because he sucks as a manager. The players haven't exactly rallied around him publicly and there have been issues in the clubhouse stemming from some of his stupid comments.

Ugh. I'm just frustrated and trying to type it out while my mind goes in 15 directions at once (and with four kids interrupting me several times) is tough. I'm just glad I didn't pay for the Extra Innings package this year. I'll watch what I can on my iPhone and via Gamecasts on ESPN.com, but although this team should be competitive, I've never felt we would be this year.

This is not the merry band of idiots that brought us to the promised land in 2004. We have a great core of guys in Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Ellsbury, etc but we also have guys who seem aging and/or unhappy playing for a guy who seems to care about himself more than his players or the game who receives players from a GM whose moves so far have been questionable at best being paid by guys who seem to want to cut payroll more than putting out a winning team (yes, I get the luxury tax and that Theo's moves didn't give them much leeway) who get to listen to whiners like us and hacks like CHB. In the end, I just want to puke when I see things like a 9 run lead being not only lost but decimated and I don't see any real hope on the horizon, other than a schedule that should make things a little easier for us.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

10% - Ownership: decision-making for replacing Theo/Tito were particularly uninspired
30% - GM/Baseball Ops: failure to inspect the groceries before going through checkout
25% - Manager: questionable in-game management, confirmed disconnect with players
35% - Players: they're 4-10 with a aggregate pitching line worse than Lackey '11

[No Guru No Method]

0% - Ownership
30% - GM(s) - For assembling a crap bullpen
10% - Manager- For seeming to be easily confused
60% - Players - by which I mean pitchers

[JohntheBaptist]

I would put the majority of it with the players and baseball ops/ GM(s). It is a crappy roster for that amount of money and is, somehow, playing below that already low bar.

I think under a more normal set of circumstances, Bobby's issues would be really taking center stage- I'm no fan, but he just hasn't had the opportunity to be deleterious yet. Give him time, he will- but for now, I'm mostly looking at Theo and Ben.

[Hendu's Gait]

by the time the season of suck concludes:

Bobby V 51%
Theo 12%
Ben 5%
Ownership 13%
Players 19%

[NoLastCall125]

If "the players don't want to play for him" is on the players, and not the manager, they sure, switch Bobby to 20% and the players to 35% in my formula. I can easily see that argument being valid. But if the manager is responsible for getting the team on his side, then I'll stick with my ratios.

But is the team even playing as though they don't want to play for Valentine? If I've misread the meaning of what you've said, my apologies. If you meant "the players don't want to play for him" as something much less, like ignoring his basic instructions or tips, then I probably went a bit overboard in my response, but I still hope to make a solid point regardless.

The veteran guys like Gonzalez, Ortiz and Pedroia are the ones that are hitting well. The lineup as a whole has been inconsistent though. Is that because Valentine has alienated everybody or due to the fact that Aviles is leading off because Ellsbury went down, McDonald is forced to play because Crawford is injured, Salty looked like shit prior to yesterday, Youks hasn't found his stride yet and the guys they can pinch hit later in game with are all AAAA players?

Beckett and Lester, save for one appearance each, have pitched well. And in their terrible spots, it was against Detroit and Texas, two teams with strong to really strong offenses. Doubront and Bard's development is encouraging from the 4th and 5th spots in the rotation. Buchholz looks terrible. I can't see any influence from Valentine on their ability as well in this case.

The defense looks awful from the corner outfield spots and SS, but again, the guys in these positions aren't superstars that can afford to tank it. Sweeney/Ross/McDonald are all platoon players and Aviles was a backup for KC two years ago. Furthermore, Aviles has a replacement in Punto or even Iglesias. These guys need to play well to keep their job or they may not ever land another starting gig, so refusing to play in spite of a manager really shouldn't even be considered by them.

Lastly, the bullpen is in utter disarray and is clearly the biggest on-field issue this team has. With relievers being volatile from year to year, pitchers being unaccustomed in the role their in bullpen, shouldn't this be more on the GM than the manager? I totally agree that the manager has to manage it as best he can, and he might not have done so 100%, but has anybody out of the pen even instilled enough confidence that they can consistently pitch a clean inning? Morales, and that's if he's going up against LHHs or weak RHHs, and maybe Aceves if he starts the inning. They have nobody they can bring in with runners on base. So has the pen been terrible because of how they can't stand Bobby V and the way they're used or because the bullpen was a mess as soon as Bailey went down the GM never supplied the team with a solid backup plan? It could be a little bit of both, but even if the worst managerial situations, at some point, the players have to perform and only three or four guys have shown they're capable of doing so in very specific situations, which still leaves the pen broken.

Bobby V will take the fall if the players continue to shit the bed, but if the players are doing so because they don't like the manager, doesn't it speak more to the character of players that are on the team than the manager itself? It's hard to forget last year and how everything went down, with the clubhouse being a mess before Bobby V was even hired. But then you look at the guys who are performing. They're the ones who have been on the team for years and who actually seem to give a shit.

Before writing this post I was kind of on the fence as to where I'd lay the blame, but I think I'd pin it on the GM and injuries. There just doesn't seem to be enough to work with on this roster right now. Hopefully that can fix itself when Matsuzaka, Hill, Ellsbury and Crawford come back, but until then, they need to hope they can tread water.

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Here is the link to the Madden article (Sorry Gene)

http://www.nydailyne...ticle-1.1065385

Anyone know more about the incident that Maddon is referring to? It seems odd that an incident that involved what appears to be multiple Red Sox players confronting their new manager wouldn't get reported at the time.

I wonder if the players aren't trying to get Bobby V fired.

Until we find that out, I think ownership deserves more of the blame than most people as they are the ones closing the pursestrings on a first year GM even though they knew that there's multiple millions of dollars in dead money.

Ownership: 25%
GMs: 20%
players: 25%
manager: 20%
schedule: 10%

[Yaz4Ever]

Anyone know more about the incident that Maddon is referring to? It seems odd that an incident that involved what appears to be multiple Red Sox players confronting their new manager wouldn't get reported at the time.

I wonder if the players aren't trying to get Bobby V fired.

Until we find that out, I think ownership deserves more of the blame than most people as they are the ones closing the pursestrings on a first year GM even though they knew that there's multiple millions of dollars in dead money.

Ownership: 25%
GMs: 20%
players: 25%
manager: 20%
schedule: 10%

As much as they seem to have loved Tito, I wouldn't be shocked. Disappointed, of course, but not shocked. Then again, they tanked on him at the end of the season so it's not all on the manager. Bobby V sucks, Tito is better, but I don't see any circumstance in which Tito returns (barring new ownership) and, even if he did, these same underperforming guys would need to perform like they did for most of last season, not like they did in September for it to matter.

[dbn]

Mostly I blame Sprowl, E5 Yaz, OnWisc, Frank, singaporesoxfan, NoMaRRaMoN, Trotsky, Delonte James Jr., and Manramscian

...but also Rio, Jamie Foxx, foreigners, and Obamacare.

If we were to blame the players, though, it'd be everyone but Ortiz, Sweeney, Shoppach, Ross, Aviles; Atchinson, Tazawa, Doubront, and Bard.

[rembrat]

I side with Lose. While I'm not putting all the blame at Valentine's doorstep, I'm putting a good portion of it on him.

The team seemed to have turned it around by taking the first 3 games from a tough Rays team and then he opens his mouth and trashes a veteran and vital cog in Kevin Youkilis. 0-5 since then. Whatever he hoped to gain from those comments blew up in his face in the worst possible way. Pedroia called him out and the fans have turned on him.

[Harry Hooper]

Anyone know more about the incident that Maddon is referring to? It seems odd that an incident that involved what appears to be multiple Red Sox players confronting their new manager wouldn't get reported at the time.

Yes, there would be plenty of eyes in Ft. Myers the 1st week of ST. Also, it's hard to take that Maddon item seriously when he writes:

Though he has gone out of his way to be the good soldier and organization man, belying his image as a power freak, Valentine must be dismayed at the fact his boss, rookie GM Ben Cherington, did nothing over the winter to address the right field, shortstop and starting rotation voids (other than dicker futily with Roy Oswalt). Instead, one of Cherington’s significant trades was to send shortstop Jed Lowrie to the Houston Astros for Melancon, whom he first hailed as a potential closer.

Yeah, the lack of solutions in RF and SS is what's killing the Sox in 2012.

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Anyone know more about the incident that Maddon is referring to? It seems odd that an incident that involved what appears to be multiple Red Sox players confronting their new manager wouldn't get reported at the time.

I wonder if the players aren't trying to get Bobby V fired.

Until we find that out, I think ownership deserves more of the blame than most people as they are the ones closing the pursestrings on a first year GM even though they knew that there's multiple millions of dollars in dead money.

You also have to consider the source. It seems unbelievable that this would come out in (leak to?) a New York paper and the Boston media which would literally kill for a story like this completely missed it. My guess is that whatever happened was no big deal, if it happened at all, and only seems so in the retelling.

[JohntheBaptist]

I side with Lose. While I'm not putting all the blame at Valentine's doorstep, I'm putting a good portion of it on him.

The team seemed to have turned it around by taking the first 3 games from a tough Rays team and then he opens his mouth and trashes a veteran and vital cog in Kevin Youkilis. 0-5 since then. Whatever he hoped to gain from those comments blew up in his face in the worst possible way. Pedroia called him out and the fans have turned on him.

Youve been trying way too hard to connect these things, and advance the same narrative for weeks now.

The problems with this team are systemic and lay in roster construction and larger questions about direction and philosophy. I totally support raging on him in general, particularly for stuff like you reference here. He is definitely a jackass. But, he's the series of mosquito bites on a body with lung cancer.

I dont want him managing my team either, but the Red Sox as an organization are in the wilderness and Bobby Valentine has had a miniscule, barely noticable effect on these larger problems, all of which began before he got here.

"Most of it in Bobby's lap"? Come on. Thats not even plausible.

Edited by JohntheBaptist, 22 April 2012 - 12:31 PM.

[ngruz25]

It's amazing how everyone agrees that managers, bullpens, and batting orders are far from the most important factors in winning games, and yet that's where everyone's attention, and sometimes blame, is focused.

I can't fathom how Bobby Valentine, who has made some truly terrible moves, gets more than a single-digit's percentage of the blame pie. The worst managerial move he made, bar none, was leaving Bard in to face Pena and Longoria. That seems to be obvious. However, the offense still scored zero runs that game. Bobby V gave the Rays a run (maybe, since I wouldn't put it past the bullpen to have given up twelve runs that inning). The offense gave the team nothing. They have the more negative WPA for that game, not Bobby V. You're all smart people, this shouldn't be too complicated.

Is Bobby V to blame for the clubhouse turning on him, or not wanting to play for him, or something? Isn't that more the fault of this team of babies, who now have a track record of quitting on their managers?

[jsinger121]

Players: 65%. This team has no fucking balls or heart to begin with
Ben: 20%. He put together a crappy bullpen. He has an outfield consisting of 4th and 5th outfielders right now.
Bobby: 10%. He's made some mistakes but he has a terrible roster to manage with. No bullpen. No outfielders. Crap on the left side of the infield. Catchers who can't hit. And some average starting pitching. Not much he can do with a roster of crap.
Ownership: 5% They need to stop caring about Fenway's 100 cause the place is a dump and more on the on field product.

[Al Zarilla]

Can somebody make a pie? I want pie.

[LeoCarrillo]

Can "injuries" be part of a blame pie, since they're (mostly) unforseeable and unavoidable?

I'd say that's 20%, given the absences of Ells, Crawford, Bailey, Jenks and Dice-K. Of which I'd re-pie about 5% back to Theo/Ben because Bailey and Jenks were injury risks to begin with.

[Captaincoop]

This team's failures thus far belong to the front office, imho. Like somewhere on the order of 70% - and to be clear, I start from the premise that you can't blame players who suck for sucking. Blame the GM who gathered them together for the princely sum of $180 million.

I don't understand the argument that "this is basically the same team as last year", thus Bobby must be doing something wrong. We lost our closer, our 8th inning guy, and now our MVP- caliber centerfielder/leadoff hitter.

Relying on Bailey - whose bones are made of graham crackers, is not bad luck. Relying on Melancon to smoothly transition from moderate success in the NL Central to pitching high leverage innings in the AL East is also not bad luck. Those were high risk moves, and were made without any good backup plan.

I get that Bobby V. is not the classy, low key guy that Tito is, but whatever. No one could be winning games with the current roster. It is a pile of dog turds.

[judyb]

Can somebody make a pie? I want pie.

You can do it, just follow along with Joe.
http://www.joepastry...sic-fruit-pies/

[tonyarmasjr]

This team's failures thus far belong to the front office, imho. Like somewhere on the order of 70% - and to be clear, I start from the premise that you can't blame players who suck for sucking. Blame the GM who gathered them together for the princely sum of $180 million.
...
I get that Bobby V. is not the classy, low key guy that Tito is, but whatever. No one could be winning games with the current roster. It is a pile of dog turds.

Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz have 5 of the team's 10 losses and respective ERAs of 5.03, 5.82, and 9. Gonzalez (.756 OPS), Salty (.632), Youk (.580), Ellsbury (.569, in his 30 PA). Are those guys all dog turds? The players need to play better. No, there's not as much talent on this roster right now as the Rangers'. But there's more than the Orioles'.

Edited by tonyarmasjr, 22 April 2012 - 04:01 PM.

[Savin Hillbilly]

We have at least six distinct but related problems, which I break down like so:

1. Poor Leadership (30% of total)

It just seems obvious on the face of it that Bobby Valentine has done a poor job of creating a positive atmosphere and getting optimal performance out of the people he's supposed to be leading.

It may be that the players have had a bad attitude and made his job harder, but when it seems like everybody's against you, it's probably you. So I have to give Bobby the lion's share here.

BLAME: Bobby V. 70%, players 30%

2. Poor In-game Decisions (5%)

mostly about pitching changes.

BLAME: Bobby V. 100%.

3. Poor Deployment of Talent (5%)

I.e. making Aceves the closer when he's better suited to the Swiss army knife role, and using Repko too much. That's about all I've got.

BLAME: Bobby V. 100%.

4. Insufficient Talent (10%)

I think this is a much more limited problem than some of the rest of you. The team on paper did not look anywhere near this bad. There was obviously about one good pitcher too few, and the bench wasn't knocking anybody's socks off, but that was about it.

BLAME: Ben C. 100%.

5. Mysterious Underperformance (20%)

Buchholz, Lester, Beckett, Aceves, Melancon, etc.... Some of this may be poor conditioning, insufficient effort, pressing, bad attitude towards Bobby V., etc. But a lot of it has to be undiagnosed injuries or just shitty luck.

BLAME: Players 50%, God 50%.

6. Injuries (30%)

Crawford, Ellsbury, Bailey.

BLAME: God 100%.

So for me, the overall blame breaks down:

God 40%
Bobby V. 31%
Players 19%
Ben C. 10%

But since I don't believe in God, that mean's it's Bobby's fault.

[Captaincoop]

Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz have 5 of the team's 10 losses and respective ERAs of 5.03, 5.82, and 9. Gonzalez (.756 OPS), Salty (.632), Youk (.580), Ellsbury (.569, in his 30 PA). Are those guys all dog turds? The players need to play better. No, there's not as much talent on this roster right now as the Rangers'. But there's more than the Orioles'.

Out of the three SP you named, the only one who I am confident will bounce back and be significantly better than they've been so far is Lester. Beckett's velocity is down, he's not in prime shape, he's 32 years old now, and has been extremely volatile in terms of his production since he came over to the AL. It is not unlikely based on his track record that he will frustrate us all year. Buchholz is having difficulty repeating his delivery and it has been widely (and reasonably) speculated here that he is still having trouble coming back from his injury. It is far from a sure thing that Beckett or Buchholz will be the caliber of pitcher that the Sox need them to be in order to contend.

Do we have to go through the bullpen? There is no one in that bullpen who can be trusted to hold a lead at this point. Ben (or whoever pulls his strings) really pressed his luck by counting another magical year out of Aceves. Albers, Padilla, Morales, Tazawa are all JAGs, and I would have no problem with a couple of them as the last arms on the roster. But they are the core of the bullpen today. In short, it's a mess.

As for the offense, even with the injuries I don't see the offense as the problem with this team. But it would have to be elite in order to overcome this pitching staff. And with Salty, Aviles, Ross/Sweeney/Byrd playing every day the offense is not going to be elite no matter how much Gonzo and Pedroia hit.

So yes, this roster is a pile of dog turds, even if the dog in question did swallow a couple of diamonds too.

[maufman]

Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz have 5 of the team's 10 losses and respective ERAs of 5.03, 5.82, and 9. Gonzalez (.756 OPS), Salty (.632), Youk (.580), Ellsbury (.569, in his 30 PA). Are those guys all dog turds? The players need to play better.

The manager's job is to create an atmosphere that's conducive to success. In-game tactics are more noticeable, but are of secondary importance. If none of these guys (save Ellsbury) is hurt, and if they finish the season with those numbers, then BV will be run out of town on a rail and will never work in baseball again -- and rightly so. And, incidentally, JWH will cut LL's balls off and turn baseball operations over to someone else -- either Cherington, or someone else whom JWH trusts.

Of course, there's zero chance that will happen. Most of those guys will play better, and the Sox won't lose anything like 110 games.

Who's fault is it? I don't think you can blame players for slumping -- that's part of the game. I also don't think you can blame sucky players for sucking. I haven't seen lots of mental errors or lack of effort on the players' part, so I'm not inclined to "blame" them -- even though underperformance relative to reasonable expectations is easily the #1 reason for the 4-10 start.

To the extent there's "blame" to be apportioned at this early stage, it should be split 1/3-1/3-1/3 among Theo/Ben (too much dead-weight payroll, and consequently too much asked of guys who should be 24th-25th man on a contending team), Bobby V (bad tactics have caused team to be even worse than its production), and the ownership group (hiring BV over Ben's objections, and failing to anticipate the CBA changes that have made the Lackey and Crawford contracts so constraining).

[Pumpsie]

After you take out the ridiculous bad luck with injuries this team has endured, the remaining blame goes to:

Players 50%
Theo 20%
Ben 10%
Ownership 10%
Bobby V. 10%

To blame Bobby Valentine for most of this, as some here apparently do, is so incredibly stupid, it borders on the insane.

[Walt Droopo]

I just forced myself to watch "money ball(s)". Is it possible that this "team" can win 20ish in a row to salvage the "season"?
IDTS!...But...I'd be a happy camper if they did.
In any event, the "bull pen" is a JOKE! Ten to fifty % blame on Benny...just one more beer and it'll be 40 to 80%. Any additional booze, and he's off on his own in the river
of your choice!

[Al Zarilla]

You can do it, just follow along with Joe.
http://www.joepastry...sic-fruit-pies/

I just thought with all the talent around here there'd be an actual pie chart. I will keep that Joepastry site though.

[Lynchie]

I think each owns a piece of the blame actually. Ownership did what they thought was best. I like to think that they are a good ownership and one that wants to win. Sometimes emotion gets away from us all in our day to day lives and perhaps they made an error in the changes they made so quickly. It's the main cause of the problem from where I sit. They will sort it out in time because they know if they don’t it will affect their bottom line and the brand they have spent so much to build.

Players have to do their job. They have to make pitches, get hits and catch the ball. It's their job. They are trying to do the best they can. For some the best they can do will not be enough. When we don't do our job management will find someone who will. So the Red Sox management will find the players to do their job, in time. It will not happen overnight. I'm not on the player blame game. It's a new year and what we have is what we have. Clearly they are not good enough as a whole. Ben has a team that is weak in many areas. Given the injuries and bullpen deficiencies exposed at this point his job becomes of huge importance. We will see just how good this bright young mind is going forward.

Bobby V has not helped himself as he does do so any times in the past. Did we not know what we were getting here? Sure, we did. Is it his fault he has a weak team? No. Is he able to handle the sh*t storm this is becoming? I'm really not sure about that. Do I like the Bobby V personality I’ve seen so far during the season? No, I don’t. Radio shows and TV shows seem to help his brand and not the Red Sox brand. I have to get past those issues that are mine to deal with. Is the failure his? That's just not fair so I have to say he can't be whole blamed for this fiasco.

The fans cannot be to blame for the quality of the product on the field. They support this team in so many ways regardless of the 'color of the hat they wear'. People have a right to speak their mind but I'll tell you I do not like all the booing at the ballpark. I'm more in favor of silence, stone cold silence. It seems wrong to boo our own uniform and I don’t like it.

Please allow me to add an item that I feel plays a huge part in the ill will we are feeling around here. The media personalities, some can't wait to tear down someone because they want to be the story. The media, some of them can't wait to exploit a crap nugget into their own little drama. Why players in any sport in this town would talk to some of those people is beyond me. It hurts the appeal of people and players having any idea of playing here.


(I started this, this morning and had to leave so much of this has been said by now I'm sure but I did want to participate in this thread. I'm going to back over this thread after this has been posted.)

[Sprowl]

Injuries 20% -- Bailey on the shelf was predictable enough, but the loss of Ellsbury again hurts badly. The Tommy John epidemic (2 expensive starters and the best LOOGY of the last ten years), Buchholz's back, and Jenks' pulmonary edema have really killed the pitching staff.

Bullpen 20% -- the Peter Principle is hard at work. Each reliever has been promoted to the level of his incompetence. Aceves is a vulture not a closer, Morales is a LRL not a setup man, Thomas is a LOOGY not a LRL, Atchison is a ROOGY, not a high-leverage reliever, Melancon is not a high-leverage reliever... I could go on.

Cherington 15% -- questionable talent evaluation, dubious scouting, and (judging by his inarticulate defenses of his decisions) in way over his head. If Punto and Ross are character players who can bring the clubhouse around, we've seen no signs of it yet.

Theo 15% -- the Crawford contract was a ridiculous failure of basic valuation and compatibility with team approach and ballpark, the Lackey contract was an appallingly bad judgment of stuff, peripheral trends and character.

Lineup 10% -- lack of clutch hitting or patience against good pitchers, combined with mediocre fielding at all positions.

Bobby the Fifth 10% -- motormouth, excessive self-regard, bad leadership, and a few bad tactical decisions. Underperformance of Pythag by one game sounds about right.

Starting pitchers 5% -- mostly Buchholz. Doubront and Bard have performed well; Lester and Beckett have each had a bad start along with two good ones.

Lucchino 5% -- Bad Cops with bad baseball judgment are not an asset to the organization. Henry and Lucchino share the blame for failing to anticipate and prepare for the CBA, and to rein in Theo accordingly.

Henry 1% -- asleep at the switch.

With this club, you know that there will always be someone to get them to give 101%.

I just thought with all the talent around here there'd be an actual pie chart. I will keep that Joepastry site though.

As you wish...

[aksoxfan]

Injuries 20% -- Bailey on the shelf was predictable enough, but the loss of Ellsbury again hurts badly. The Tommy John epidemic (2 expensive starters and the best LOOGY of the last ten years), Buchholz's back, and Jenks' pulmonary edema have really killed the pitching staff.

Bullpen 20% -- the Peter Principle is hard at work. Each reliever has been promoted to the level of his incompetence. Aceves is a vulture not a closer, Morales is a LRL not a setup man, Thomas is a LOOGY not a LRL, Atchison is a ROOGY, not a high-leverage reliever, Melancon is not a high-leverage reliever... I could go on.

Cherington 15% -- questionable talent evaluation, dubious scouting, and (judging by his inarticulate defenses of his decisions) in way over his head. If Punto and Ross are character players who can bring the clubhouse around, we've seen no signs of it yet.

Theo 15% -- the Crawford contract was a ridiculous failure of basic valuation and compatibility with team approach and ballpark, the Lackey contract was an appallingly bad judgment of stuff, peripheral trends and character.

Lineup 10% -- lack of clutch hitting or patience against good pitchers, combined with mediocre fielding at all positions.

Bobby the Fifth 10% -- motormouth, excessive self-regard, bad leadership, and a few bad tactical decisions. Underperformance of Pythag by one game sounds about right.

Starting pitchers 5% -- mostly Buchholz. Doubront and Bard have performed well; Lester and Beckett have each had a bad start along with two good ones.

Lucchino 5% -- Bad Cops with bad baseball judgment are not an asset to the organization. Henry and Lucchino share the blame for failing to anticipate and prepare for the CBA, and to rein in Theo accordingly.

Henry 1% -- asleep at the switch.

With this club, you know that there will always be someone to get them to give 101%.




As you wish...

My vote for best analysis, but how much are we missing the skills of Varitek? Maybe 7-9%?

[jose melendez]

Ownership 100%


I mean this kind of tounge in cheek, but I kind of mean it too. One of the lessons I've learned watching the Sox and Pats become perennial contenders after decades of ineptitude is that it all starts from the top. If you have shit ownership, you make get lucky and have a break every 20 years (see Cardinals, Arizona) but generally you will suck. If you have good onwenership, odds are you'll be competitive year in year out and the sucky years will be the aberation.

Ownership hired the GMs and Managers and signed off on the players. If the management sucks, that's their bad.

The other thing I've come to realize is that when you hear things over and over in the media from a variety of sources, even if they seem petty, they're probably at least partially accurate. I'm coming to believe that JWH has really disengaged to some extent, and that's a bad thing.

[bankshot1]

Who do i blame for the Sox crappy start?


Tigers 0- 3
Jays 1-2
Rangers 0-2
Yankees 0-2
Rays 3-1

Right now I hold the Rays mostly blameless, but all the other teams can be blamed for being better than the Sox.

[tonyarmasjr]

The manager's job is to create an atmosphere that's conducive to success. In-game tactics are more noticeable, but are of secondary importance. If none of these guys (save Ellsbury) is hurt, and if they finish the season with those numbers, then BV will be run out of town on a rail and will never work in baseball again -- and rightly so. And, incidentally, JWH will cut LL's balls off and turn baseball operations over to someone else -- either Cherington, or someone else whom JWH trusts.

Of course, there's zero chance that will happen. Most of those guys will play better, and the Sox won't lose anything like 110 games.

Who's fault is it? I don't think you can blame players for slumping -- that's part of the game. I also don't think you can blame sucky players for sucking. I haven't seen lots of mental errors or lack of effort on the players' part, so I'm not inclined to "blame" them -- even though underperformance relative to reasonable expectations is easily the #1 reason for the 4-10 start.

To the extent there's "blame" to be apportioned at this early stage, it should be split 1/3-1/3-1/3 among Theo/Ben (too much dead-weight payroll, and consequently too much asked of guys who should be 24th-25th man on a contending team), Bobby V (bad tactics have caused team to be even worse than its production), and the ownership group (hiring BV over Ben's objections, and failing to anticipate the CBA changes that have made the Lackey and Crawford contracts so constraining).

I'm not sure we're on the same page here. I think we're arguing semantics. What are you blaming the manager and front office for if not losing games? Nothing terrible has really happened this season other than that, yet. And if you are blaming them for losing games, how is it any of those guys' fault that Beckett gave up 5 HRs in a start? What should Ben or Bobby have done differently that shifts the blame from the guy who threw the meatball to them? No, our starters aren't going to have an ERA north of 6 and Youk will be above the Mendoza line at the end of the year. And no, we shouldn't crucify them for slumping - it happens. But the fact is that they are playing like dog turds. How is that somebody else's fault? The team certainly isn't perfectly constructed, especially with all the injuries, but there's enough talent on the field any given day that they should be better than 4-10.

[maufman]

I'm not sure we're on the same page here. I think we're arguing semantics. What are you blaming the manager and front office for if not losing games? Nothing terrible has really happened this season other than that, yet. And if you are blaming them for losing games, how is it any of those guys' fault that Beckett gave up 5 HRs in a start? What should Ben or Bobby have done differently that shifts the blame from the guy who threw the meatball to them? No, our starters aren't going to have an ERA north of 6 and Youk will be above the Mendoza line at the end of the year. And no, we shouldn't crucify them for slumping - it happens. But the fact is that they are playing like dog turds. How is that somebody else's fault? The team certainly isn't perfectly constructed, especially with all the injuries, but there's enough talent on the field any given day that they should be better than 4-10.

This thread implicitly poses two questions:

1. How much of the 4-10 start is blame-worthy?
2. How should blame for the blame-worthy stuff be apportioned?

My answers are (1) only a small part of the 4-10 start is blame-worthy, and (2) the blame for that stuff belongs in roughly equal proportions to ownership, the FO, and the field manager.

In other words, if the Sox miss the playoffs by two or three games on account of this poor stretch, that's how I'll parcel out blame. If the poor play continues for another 10, 20, 30 or 150 games, of course I'll reassess.

[86spike]

Is Bobby V to blame for the clubhouse turning on him, or not wanting to play for him, or something? Isn't that more the fault of this team of babies, who now have a track record of quitting on their managers?

This is something that's really bothering me about this team.

I have yet to forgive the 2011 players for their gutless implosion in September and the way they tuned out and betrayed their manager. Abject apathy (as opposed to JD Drew-style robot-apathy) is something I have a hard time stomaching from players. I blame them for fucking up what should have been another run at a title.

If this collection of players, many who were here last fall, are already refusing to respond to authority (whether they like BV or not, he's in charge), then they are a hate able collection of entitled pricks that will make watch the Nats this summer instead of them.

Unforgivable.

[Lose Remerswaal]

Folks who are blaming the players, which players are you blaming?

Franklin Morales? Who we picked up for a PTBNL (was one ever named?) A guy with a lifetime WAR of just under 1.0? Were you expecting him to be a good set up man?

Or is it Matt Albers you are blaming? A guy who in 6 seasons has a WAR of 0.1? This guy is disappointing you?

I know it's not Jeremy Jonathan Justin Thomas or Vincente Padilla that you had high expectations for. Aceves turns out not to be able to be a closer? OK, be disappointed in him

You want to blame Youkilis and Saltalamacchia for underperforming? Fine, but most of the lineup is outperforming expectations. Beckett and Lester have each had 2 decent outings out of 3. Doubront is doing well.

Honestly, even with all of that, if it weren't for Aceves and Melancon, this team is probably 7 and 7 (2 losses in Detroit and Saturday), and we're not having all this angst.

Management left us with no proven backup for Bailey, which resulted in those implosions. Most of the roster is actually playing fairly well, although it's hard to see with all the shit flying everywhere

[Gene Conleys Plane Ticket]

Folks who are blaming the players, which players are you blaming?

Franklin Morales? Who we picked up for a PTBNL (was one ever named?) A guy with a lifetime WAR of just under 1.0? Were you expecting him to be a good set up man?

Or is it Matt Albers you are blaming? A guy who in 6 seasons has a WAR of 0.1? This guy is disappointing you?

I know it's not Jeremy Jonathan Justin Thomas or Vincente Padilla that you had high expectations for. Aceves turns out not to be able to be a closer? OK, be disappointed in him

You want to blame Youkilis and Saltalamacchia for underperforming? Fine, but most of the lineup is outperforming expectations. Beckett and Lester have each had 2 decent outings out of 3. Doubront is doing well.

Honestly, even with all of that, if it weren't for Aceves and Melancon, this team is probably 7 and 7 (2 losses in Detroit and Saturday), and we're not having all this angst.

Management left us with no proven backup for Bailey, which resulted in those implosions. Most of the roster is actually playing fairly well, although it's hard to see with all the shit flying everywhere

To me, 60% of the blame falls on the players simply because they are the ones playing the games and not getting the job done. It doesn't indict any specific player, and certainly not all of the players, for "not trying" or any other character flaw. They are simply not performing up to expectations as a whole.

That said, looking at the talent on the current (injury-plagued) roster and the schedule they played, I'd have to say as objectively as I can, a 7-7 record after 14 games would be a fairly reasonable, mininal expectation. They are only three games behind that. So we've probably left out a major piece of the "blame pie," and that's the one called "luck" or "random events" if you like. It's a hard one to quantify or even to define, but as has been discussed countless times on this board over the years, luck plays an enormous role in all sports, but in baseball probably more than any other.

Just based solely on my subjective recollections and judgments of the games I've watched so far, the Red Sox have caught some unlucky breaks in addition to everything else (bad calls, bad hops -- certainly the Ellsbury injury was bad luck of the worst kind). Maybe luck could have given them one more win, maybe two or even three. I can't say for sure. But with luck breaking our way, this season could -- all other things being equal -- look very different now.

Edited by Gene Conleys Plane Ticket, 23 April 2012 - 07:45 AM.

[Lose Remerswaal]

To add to that, they've played 11 of those games against the Yankees, the Rays, the Rangers and the Tigers. Next 14 are Twins, White Sox, Oakland and Baltimore. Let's see how they do against this caliber of team

[Buzzkill Pauley]

Honestly, even with all of that, if it weren't for Aceves and Melancon, this team is probably 7 and 7 (2 losses in Detroit and Saturday), and we're not having all this angst.

Not to single you out Lose, but I keep hearing and reading folks saying how the Sox lost two in Detroit that they should have won. I just don't see that, because the team never got closer than a tie on Opening Day.

Even if Melancon or Aceves hold things together, it's still a bullpen game, being played away versus a very good offense. It's was awesome to come back in the ninth, but the odds still were no better than a push. So it's much easier for me to see the Sox beating Shields on Patriot's day, although even for that one has to assume they'd eventually score a run or two.

Either way, the Sox ideally could be 7-7; with a competent bullpen the Sox would be 6-8; their pythagorean says they should be 5-9; they are actually 4-10.

The range still only goes from blah to bad to blow-it-up. And to me that's less an indictment of the players than of the schedule and the injuries and the management responsible for assembling and running this year's team. But it's hard to blame the schedule when it should get easier soon, and there's no point in blaming injuries -- may as well blame Mauro Gomez for having hands of feet, feet of stone.

[Lose Remerswaal]

You're right, 6-8 is just as likely as 7-7. Against the iron of the league.