59 replies to this topic

[MakMan44]

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...rtnerId=rss_bos


Great Ben, the biggest problem we have and you don't want to change it. The Yankees are a good hitting team, not the best but good. If our middle and late relief can't pull through and in fact get absolutely slammed, then yes it is time to make some changes. Why not see if we could pry a reliever away from the A's for Lars? I'd never recommenced trading away anything of serious value for relief but it's not like we have no chance of competing. The most glaring issue is our relief pitching and your previous trades haven't worked out, go out and see what you can get. Now, not the All Star break were we could be down 10+ games because our relief pitching has sucked so much.

[keyalyn]

Trading anything of value for a reliever is risky unless they are a proven commodity, and at this point even someone merely decent would cost the Sox a small fortune. It is clear as day that the Red Sox bullpen is horrendous, so if they make a trade for someone they will get absolutely raped in return. Guys like Lars Anderson would unlikely net the Red Sox anything better than they already have. I am sure that Ben is making plenty calls to teams about relievers to see if there is anything out there, but at this point I don't expect a trade that would look good for Boston. I am reading those quotes as him not wanting to make an ill-advised panic move of a trade, rather than him crossing his fingers and hoping Aceves and Melancon wake up tomorrow in 2011 form and Tazawa becomes vintage Gagne.

[Sampo Gida]

IMO the bullpen was not as bad as it seemed, even if the results were awful, so nothing needs to be done immediately. To recap

Padilla

After getting Andrew Jones, he gave up a bloop single to Martin and an error allowed Nunez to get on. With a bit of luck, he is out of the inning.

Unfortunately, only 1 out and not 3 outs, and a BB, grand slam and wall ball double followed.

Albers

Came in and A-Rod reached on an error and Tex hit a 350 ft Fenway Park HR that is an out anywhere else. Bad luck.

Morales

Gave up a single to Granderson and then struck out Jones and got Martin to ground out to end the inning.

LD single to start the 8th against Nunez and he gets pulled. Aceves is asked to get a 6 out save with a ROB. This was a questionable decision to me, If you want Aceves to get a 6 out save, let him start the inning clean. With Swisher (who has hit much better from the left side this year) and LHB Cano up after Jeter, and A-Rod who has reverse splits, I would have liked to have seen Morales stay in since he only threw 13 pitches and unlike the other day when he was clearly did not have it, he had good stuff and command.

Aceves

Walks Jeter and then Swisher batting from the left side hits a double off the walI in CF that I thought Ross could have caught. Cano was given an IBB with no outs, which was a questionable decision, A-Rod walked followed by a double by Tex and another IBB to Granderson with 0 outs. That's all for Aceves.

JThomas

Gets a LD DP, and then inexplicably, Bobby V leaves him in with Tazawa warmed up to face the RHB Martin, something I thought Bobby V was not going to do again with ROB and the game close. A double by Martin and an IF hit by Nunez and in comes Tazawa.

Tazawa. Shuts the door and gets the next 4 outs

A bit of bad luck, bad fielding, bad pitching (Aceves, and Padilla after the first 3 guys he faced), guys being used in less than an optimal manner, and questionable IBB's. Not all on the pen, and not all of the pen pitched badly.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 22 April 2012 - 12:57 AM.

[fineyoungarm]

Agree with title of thread 100%. The bullpen needs a major remake without making deals, hoped to improve an inury ridden, mediocre team, that are only guaranteed to gut it for the future. (The "other" problems will have to await returns from the DL and receive bandaid approaches like guys hitting .070 - except at SS - an upgrade at SS is 30 miles away).

After tonight's game, Bard has to go back to the pen as the closer. (Sorry Danny - time to suffer the loss of face of "only" being the closer for the Boston Red Sox.) The guy throws 100 mph and two pitches are fine - for now. The fifth starter is also 30 miles away (has it come to this? agreeing with Cardofo?) - with the new SS, C and that Swedish fellow (for first base - hm).

Aceves goes back to his former role - after a few sessions of psychotherapy. (Freud lectured at Clark - try someone in Worcester, if the shrinks in Boston are booked.) Let other faces compete for the set up role - and, if they fail, bus ticket to Pawtucket or release/trade.

And, seriously, make a call to Tim Wakefield. He cannot be worse than what we've seen out of the pen, and may be a stop gap in the rotatiion, if Cook founders, until DiceK gets back. He has "intangibles" as well.

One more thing, hope that the fans stop eviscerating the manager (like that's going to happen).

Edited by fineyoungarm, 22 April 2012 - 09:12 PM.

[jaysun6770]

They need to clean house period. I'm a huge fan I do not seeing them win this year in order for us to win we need pitching we will have money in off season let youk walk dice k walk trade players like Lars, Jose iggy, it's sound like Im on drugs but here this if you free up money this year for 2013 free agency you can get one starter (hamels,shields,marcum,grienke) put bard in pen or don't. Middle brooks lavarnway deserve a shot. If not now then next year. I would rather rely on Bogarts being the future then iggy.Nobody wants to here this but the sox score runs without ellsbury so he could be traded if needed I mean you have to start looking at it now are you going to keep him or not? If we keep him and spend boatloads of money on him won't we be in the same situation we are in now even last year with his career year we lost out in the end because of pitching and having cheap options for pitching has already proven that it is not working

[BostonBrahmin]

I think the best bet is to move Bard to the closer spot, with Aceves as the 8th inning guy (if he still falters, Tazawa can handle it). Move Padilla to the rotation. Once the closer role is established, the rest of the bullpen will have a chance to fall into place.

[jaysun6770]

And next year sign Ryan Masson for cheap

[Sampo Gida]

I think the best bet is to move Bard to the closer spot, with Aceves as the 8th inning guy (if he still falters, Tazawa can handle it). Move Padilla to the rotation. Once the closer role is established, the rest of the bullpen will have a chance to fall into place.

The closer role is established. Aceves had 3 straight good 9th innings starting innings clean. He comes in with men on base and asked to get 6 outs against his old team, and he failed. Move on, and use him more conventionally.

Why are we so much in a hurry to anoint a guy as closer who finished last year with a 10.64 ERA in the heat of a pennant race last September, and to move a guy who has been more ineffective than Aceves of late (Padilla) in the pen to pitch even more innings as starters.

Linsanity.

[BostonBrahmin]

You see Bard's 10.64 ERA in September, I see a 0.00 ERA in June and July. By your logic, Beckett and Lester shouldn't be in the starting rotation.

I was on board with Bard in the rotation. I think the team is better off getting 160-180 innings out of him rather than 60-80, but the bullpen is a mess. The guy you think should be closing is a coin flip on whether he holds the fort or blows it and is carrying a beautiful 24.00 ERA and 3.33 WHIP. If they have a two run lead in Minnesota tomorrow night, are you really comfortable giving Aceves the 9th, or would you rather see Bard trotting out of the bullpen?

[Sampo Gida]

You see Bard's 10.64 ERA in September, I see a 0.00 ERA in June and July. By your logic, Beckett and Lester shouldn't be in the starting rotation.

I am wondering if one reason why the team wanted Bard to start is they felt his arm is more likely to hold up as a starter (which was why they wanted Paps to start in 2007), and that his problems in September were arm related. Bard indicated that the frequent warm ups and pitching back to back games were hard on the arm, and that he would frequently be pitching with a sore arm, so starting was not necessarily harder on his arm.

This is a conflict between long/medium term interests of the team and short term. Bards surplus value is certainly higher as a starter, and if he makes a successful transition the team will be better off for the next 4 years as Bard is under Red Sox control so he gets paid less than market rates, and signing FA starters is expensive and risky.

I was on board with Bard in the rotation. I think the team is better off getting 160-180 innings out of him rather than 60-80, but the bullpen is a mess. The guy you think should be closing is a coin flip on whether he holds the fort or blows it and is carrying a beautiful 24.00 ERA and 3.33 WHIP. If they have a two run lead in Minnesota tomorrow night, are you really comfortable giving Aceves the 9th, or would you rather see Bard trotting out of the bullpen?

I was a bit skeptical about Bard to the rotation myself but have come to believe Bard can make the transition

In any event, according to Bobby V, Bard will be used as the set up guy next week and Aceves would close. If Bard was closer Saturday, Aceves probably still comes out for the 8th, and the result is the same..

After Detroit, I think Aceves has pitched well in his 3 appearances when starting an inning clean in the 9th. Bard probably makes me more comfortable closing since his K rate is so high. However, despite the success of both Bard and Aceves in non-closing roles last year, neither is a lock to be a good closer. Getting the outs in the 9th is completely than getting them out in the 8th. Not sure if that is psychological or if hitters have better AB in the last inning and/or the strike zone gets tighter, but it seems to be so. Some guys handle it, and some don't. Bard had a chance to close when Paps was on personal leave and blew a big game against the Indians. Only 1 game, but he had been so dominant before that I wondered if the pressure got to him.

Almost every team has to recreate significant parts of their pen every year since relievers are so unpredictable year to year. It's a rare team that has a closer like Paps and Rivera that you can count on each year. Bobby V/BC inability to do so w/o resorting to the Bard option would be a colossal failure on both of their parts. Tampa Bay also is w/o their closer and having problems with the pen, but they have not panicked.

In a way, this is similar to 2007 when they ended up using Paps as closer. Couple of differences were Paps wanted to close and had shown he could close in 2006 and Bard is not a sure thing, and the teams starting rotation and depth were arguably better than 2012 (ex Paps and Bard)

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

I find it very hard to see how Bard would be more valuable to the 2012 Red Sox as a reliever than as a starter. Switching Padilla and Bard would be insane--I know Bard's innings would become considerably higher-leverage, and he'd be even more effective in shorter stints, but you're basically trading in 80+ IP of Bard for 80+ IP of Padilla (who I'd imagine would be even less effective as a SP than he has been out of the pen). I don't think that's a winning move.

[BostonBrahmin]

I find it very hard to see how Bard would be more valuable to the 2012 Red Sox as a reliever than as a starter. Switching Padilla and Bard would be insane--I know Bard's innings would become considerably higher-leverage, and he'd be even more effective in shorter stints, but you're basically trading in 80+ IP of Bard for 80+ IP of Padilla (who I'd imagine would be even less effective as a SP than he has been out of the pen). I don't think that's a winning move.

Keep in mind, Daisuke has to be back on the ML roster as of May 23. Sox have 30 games between now and then (seriously- one day off over the next month?), so you're looking at 5 or 6 starts from Padilla before Daisuke is back. Once Matsuzaka returns, either Bard or Doubront is going back to the bullpen (assuming Clay doesn't get a 15-day vacation). Given the choice, I'd keep Doubront in the rotation and move Bard to the 9th.

[MakMan44]

http://www.mlbtrader...nt-balfour.html

Ironically there was a write about Balfour's trade value on MLTR today. It would be great if we could pick him up from the A's. If it would take much more than Lars, I wouldn't want them to pull the trigger but he's been solid for a while now and would be a great option out of the pen.

[Towney007]

Bard to the 'pen seems like the last thing you'd want to do if you're worried about the quality of your bullpen. Seeing as:

The quality of your starters usually dictates the usage of your bullpen
This is the best rotation the Red Sox feel they can throw
Taking a pitcher out will mean more use of the middle relief that isn't producing results
One of the Red Sox top five pitchers will be used less now as opposed to more.

How is less Daniel Bard a good thing for this club right now? I mean great - Bard would be at the back end - but who gets to him? Who makes up for him in the rotation? Cook? What happens after an injury?

[ivanvamp]

Step 1: Keep Bard in the rotation. For the long-term health of the organization, this is something that they need to find out whether it will work or not. You can always move him back to the pen later on in the process. I think he's going to end up being a very, very good starting pitcher for years.

Step 2: Trade Youkilis to the A's for Balfour. The A's need a 3b badly. The Sox will likely have to eat some of the salary, but (a) at this point, it's a sunk cost, and (b) it's just for one year. Balfour is a proven commodity in the bullpen. Power arm, solid pitcher, has proven it in the AL East when he was with Tampa. Veteran, can close or set up. 2010-12 stats: 2.26 era, 1.01 whip, 8.6 k/9.

Step 3: Take a risk and call up Middlebrooks to be the regular 3b. Currently tearing up AAA: .379/.406/.742/1.148, 7 hr, 22 rbi. I don't know how good a defender he is, but Youkilis at this point is a statue. I know it's taking a chance, but it's the move to make now. Youks, btw, is hitting .190/.271/.310/.580. Don't we think that Middlebrooks can do better than that?

Step 4: Stay the course with everything else. It'll work out. The bullpen isn't going to have a 9+ era all year long. Aceves certainly isn't going to have a 24.00 era. Just try to make better use of the guys you have: Tazawa, Morales, Aceves, Atchison, and Albers, specifically. They're all better than what they've shown (well, don't include Tazawa, who has just 3 ip). Add Balfour and that'll help immensely.

Step 5: Remember, reinforcements will be coming: Matsuzaka, Bailey, Crawford, Ellsbury all will return at some point in the next few months, and it'll be like getting four pretty good players via trade without having to give up anything. If they can just get it back to .500 by the end of May (which, given their relatively soft schedule seems like a real possibility), they should be fine.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

Step 2: Trade Youkilis to the A's for Balfour. The A's need a 3b badly. The Sox will likely have to eat some of the salary, but (a) at this point, it's a sunk cost, and (b) it's just for one year. Balfour is a proven commodity in the bullpen. Power arm, solid pitcher, has proven it in the AL East when he was with Tampa. Veteran, can close or set up. 2010-12 stats: 2.26 era, 1.01 whip, 8.6 k/9.

Seriously dude? It's been less than 50 PAs. You really want to ship off a guy who's been one of the best players in the league for the last five years for a 34-year-old reliever (who's been playing in front of Tampa and Oakland's excellent defenses for the last three years, no less?)?

[ivanvamp]

Seriously dude? It's been less than 50 PAs. You really want to ship off a guy who's been one of the best players in the league for the last five years for a 34-year-old reliever (who's been playing in front of Tampa and Oakland's excellent defenses for the last three years, no less?)?

Yes. Two reasons.

First, Youkilis' decline has been pretty significant the past few years.

2010: 102 g, .307/.411/.564/.975, 157 ops+, 19 hr, 62 rbi. Really good rate stats, but overall production limited due to the injuries.
2011: 120 g, .258/.373/.459/.833, 123 ops+, 17 hr, 80 rbi. ops+ is good, obp is good, but overall numbers on a decline significantly, and again, he played less than 75% of the season.
2012: .190/.271/.310/.580, 56 ops+, 1 hr, 5 rbi. I know he's better than this and I know it's a small number of games. But he's not the player he once was. He's 33 years old and he's aging fast. He has no range anymore at 3b. And there's a very good chance they won't re-sign him after this year anyway.

Second, he seems to be a significant part of the clubhouse problem. If that's so, I think it's a good reason for him to go, especially since he's not producing and 3b is one of the few spots in the organization where they have a seemingly ready plug-and-play solution in-house (Middlebrooks), who just happens to be the 3b of the future anyway.

So yes, I think it's probably time to seriously consider moving him. If we could get more than Balfour, even better.

Edited by ivanvamp, 23 April 2012 - 03:53 PM.

[Cellar-Door]

Yes he should definitely panic based on an immensely small sample size and go out and overpay for whatever mediocre talent is available rather than wait and see if they perhaps pitch closer to career averages.

[paulb0t]

The A's aren't going to trade for Kevin Youklis, unless Boston eats a significant portion of his contract. And in no way should the Red Sox want to trade him, given his value. Even in his down 2011 was quite good until he tried to play through injuries. His 2011 OPS+ by month: 147, 142, 152, 140, 101, 49.

Now, given his slow start this year (SSS alert!), you might feel he's cooked. However, I think you contradict yourself by saying he has no range at 3B (which may be true) - if that's the case then Oakland, who has been placing significant value at defense, would have little to no interest in him - unless they identified him as a 1B.

All of that being said, in no way do you trade Kevin Youklis - even one with somewhat diminished skills, and especially while paying the bulk of his contract - for a middle reliever. This is exactly the panic move that would demolish any chances the club have in 2012. In fact, the only scenario that might be worse would be trading WMB or Lavarnway or similar for a fungible reliever.

Now, if you want to blow it up and trade Youklis for top-shelf prospects, then (and only then) does it make sense.

Edited by paulb0t, 23 April 2012 - 05:30 PM.

[ivanvamp]

The A's aren't going to trade for Kevin Youklis, unless Boston eats a significant portion of his contract.

Yes I know. I already mentioned that.

Given his value, which, even in his down 2011 was quite good until he tried to play through injuries. His 2011 OPS+ by month: 147, 142, 152, 140, 101, 49.

Now, given his slow start this year (SSS alert!), you might feel he's cooked. However, I think you contradict yourself by saying he has no range at 3B (which may be true) - if that's the case then Oakland, who has been placing significant value at defense, would have little to no interest in him -- unless they identified him as a 1B.

Beane has liked Youkilis for a long time. If he has plenty of middle relief arms, has a gaping hole at 3b and thinks like others here that Youkilis will rebound and be pretty good, and his cost is largely covered by the Red Sox, it's a no-brainer for him to do it.

All of that being said, in no way do you trade Kevin Youklis - even one with somewhat diminished skills, and especially while paying the bulk of his contract - for a middle reliever. This is exactly the panic move that would demolish any chances the club have in 2012. In fact, the only scenario that might be worse would be trading WMB or Lavarnway or similar for a fungible reliever.

It would "demolish any chances the club has in 2012"? What if Middlebrooks is roughly equivalent to Youkilis from here on out *and* they get a quality bullpen arm (Balfour isn't just some run-of-the-mill "middle reliever". He's an outstanding relief pitcher that can do it all.) to stabilize a shaky pen? In that case would it still "demolish" the Sox's chances in 2012?

[Sampo Gida]

Yes. Two reasons.

First, Youkilis' decline has been pretty significant the past few years.

2010: 102 g, .307/.411/.564/.975, 157 ops+, 19 hr, 62 rbi. Really good rate stats, but overall production limited due to the injuries.
2011: 120 g, .258/.373/.459/.833, 123 ops+, 17 hr, 80 rbi. ops+ is good, obp is good, but overall numbers on a decline significantly, and again, he played less than 75% of the season.
2012: .190/.271/.310/.580, 56 ops+, 1 hr, 5 rbi. I know he's better than this and I know it's a small number of games. But he's not the player he once was. He's 33 years old and he's aging fast. He has no range anymore at 3b. And there's a very good chance they won't re-sign him after this year anyway.

Second, he seems to be a significant part of the clubhouse problem. If that's so, I think it's a good reason for him to go, especially since he's not producing and 3b is one of the few spots in the organization where they have a seemingly ready plug-and-play solution in-house (Middlebrooks), who just happens to be the 3b of the future anyway.

So yes, I think it's probably time to seriously consider moving him. If we could get more than Balfour, even better.

Sure, lots of teams want to give up a lot for what you describe as an aging declining clubhouse cancer making 12.5 million with an option for 13 million.

Also, Youks so called "decline" in 2011 was because he was playing through an injury that crushed his numbers in the 2nd half.

His poor start this year was really limited to an 0-12 start (Bobby V sat him down in the slug-fest in game 3). Since his first 3 games, his line is

267/361/433/794

Maybe his health issues become chronic and he is worse than last year, but I think it's way too early to say. One thing for sure, he ain't getting much protection batting 6th with this lineup. Even so, it's 12 games against some good teams/pitching. Watch those numbers jump as it heats up and the quality of the opponents normalize.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 23 April 2012 - 05:40 PM.

[alwyn96]

It would "demolish any chances the club has in 2012"? What if Middlebrooks is roughly equivalent to Youkilis from here on out *and* they get a quality bullpen arm (Balfour isn't just some run-of-the-mill "middle reliever". He's an outstanding relief pitcher that can do it all.) to stabilize a shaky pen? In that case would it still "demolish" the Sox's chances in 2012?

If you assume that Middlebrooks is an awesome superstar, then of course everything's going to work out.

You don't trade an All-Star 3B for middle relief 3 weeks into the season. If people didn't think the bullpen was a disaster 3 weeks ago, then they're overreacting to a small sample size now.

Edited by alwyn96, 23 April 2012 - 05:47 PM.

[paulb0t]

That's a lot of "what-ifs" in your post. I'm about as big of a WMB fan as there is, and look forward to watching him man 3B next season (with Papi or Youk as the new DH), but it's pretty hard to replace a ~140 OPS player at any position, especially 3B.

Gauging Oaklands interest - Beane liked Youklis when he was an underrated asset in the Red Sox minor league system. Now that he's 33, making $12 million dollars, and by your account no longer able to play 3B, and the A's are at best a 3rd place team in the West with or without Youklis managing a shoestring budget, I doubt their interest is high.

Still, of course they'd trade Balfour for Youklis and $10 million or whatever dollars. They'd be stupid not to (though the lack of FA compensation they'd get as a result of the new CBA would be somewhat limited). But why on earth would Boston make that deal? They'd be better off letting Youklis walk as a Free Agent and pick up the compensation pick they'd be entitled to. However, Boston has it's own cash flow problems, and trading Youklis AND cash doesn't solve that at all. "What if" Middlebrooks comes up and hits .150? "What it "Balfour is the road version of his 2011 self (3.33 ERA on the road in 2011 is hardly elite). Worse, "what if" Balfour is the 2011 AL East version of himself? NYY OPS Against: 1.128. TOR OPS Against: 1.178. TB OPS Against: .733. Small sample sizes? Sure, but so is declaring Youklis absolutely cooked offensively after 48 at-bats.

[ivanvamp]

Sure, lots of teams want to give up a lot for what you describe as an aging declining clubhouse cancer making 12.5 million with an option for 13 million.

I never said anyone would. I suggested Balfour who is really good, but as a relief pitcher probably wouldn't constitute "a lot", and only on the condition that the Red Sox pick up a big chunk of his salary. But you can argue the straw man if you want.

Also, Youks so called "decline" in 2011 was because he was playing through an injury that crushed his numbers in the 2nd half.

The problem with Youkilis isn't talent. It's the combination of age and injuries. In 2010-11, he played in 222 out of a possible 324 games (just 68.5%). His injuries are becoming a serious trend with him, and given his age, it's not likely to get better.

His poor start this year was really limited to an 0-12 start (Bobby V sat him down in the slug-fest in game 3). Since his first 3 games, his line is

267/361/433/794

Maybe his health issues become chronic and he is worse than last year, but I think it's way too early to say. One thing for sure, he ain't getting much protection batting 6th with this lineup. Even so, it's 12 games against some good teams/pitching. Watch those numbers jump as it heats up and the quality of the opponents normalize.

I admitted that the idea of trading Youkilis and bringing up Middlebrooks is a risk. No question about that. But ask yourself this: as he turns 34 next March, and is currently in the last year of his contract, do you think the Red Sox will re-sign him for 2013? If so, how much do you think they'll pay him while their up-and-coming 3b of the future sits in the minors, tearing up AAA pitching? And if you don't think the Sox will re-sign him, why not make a bold move now and get something of value for him and bring up your future 3b just a little sooner than you would have anyway?

[MakMan44]

Gauging Oaklands interest - Beane liked Youklis when he was an underrated asset in the Red Sox minor league system. Now that he's 33, making $12 million dollars, and by your account no longer able to play 3B, and the A's are at best a 3rd place team in the West with or without Youklis managing a shoestring budget, I doubt their interest is high.

I totally agree with this point, why would the A's trade for Youk at this point? They're not going to make the playoffs this year. They'd more likely wait till after the season and sign him then trade for him now.

[ivanvamp]

That's a lot of "what-ifs" in your post. I'm about as big of a WMB fan as there is, and look forward to watching him man 3B next season (with Papi or Youk as the new DH), but it's pretty hard to replace a ~140 OPS player at any position, especially 3B.

Youkilis put up an ops of 1.009 through June 27 of 2010. Since then he's put up:

- an ops of .891 the rest of 2010
- an ops of .833 in 2011
- an ops of .580 so far in 2012 (agreed...very small sample size there)

The point isn't that Youkilis is cooked. It's that moving forward I don't see him as being the 3b the Sox are going to look to in 2013. He's aging and injury-prone....I don't think those two points can be disputed. His defense is suffering. He hasn't played more than 120 games in a season since 2009, so even if he puts up good numbers in 100+ games, it still leaves a huge hole.

I'm not saying it's automatically the right thing to do (trading Youks). I'm suggesting it would be a bold, risky, but potentially very rewarding move to make. Let's not forget the other part of my argument: that apparently (from the reports), he is a bad egg in the clubhouse and that alone might be reason enough to shake things up.

[paulb0t]

Youkilis put up an ops of 1.009 through June 27 of 2010. Since then he's put up:

- an ops of .891 the rest of 2010
- an ops of .833 in 2011
- an ops of .580 so far in 2012 (agreed...very small sample size there)

He was an All-Star in 2011, sporting an OPS near .900 before injuries derailed him. For what it's worth, only Beltre and Longoria had a higher OPS as a 3B in 2011. And that includes his August/September swoon.

The point isn't that Youkilis is cooked. It's that moving forward I don't see him as being the 3b the Sox are going to look to in 2013. He's aging and injury-prone....I don't think those two points can be disputed. His defense is suffering. He hasn't played more than 120 games in a season since 2009, so even if he puts up good numbers in 100+ games, it still leaves a huge hole.

This I somewhat agree with - failing a major setback, WMB will likely be the starting 3B in 2013. You can't rush him into that position unless you're completely willing to punt 2012, however. As good as WMB has looked this year, he's also had less than 150 at-bats in AAA (and was awful there in 2011). Let's not pretend for a moment that he can be counted on to approach anywhere near Kevin Youklis' level numbers. And, if his defense is suffering, your whole point of trading him as a 3B to a 3rd place (at best) team with their own budget problems, just doesn't make sense.

I'm not saying it's automatically the right thing to do (trading Youks). I'm suggesting it would be a bold, risky, but potentially very rewarding move to make. Let's not forget the other part of my argument: that apparently (from the reports), he is a bad egg in the clubhouse and that alone might be reason enough to shake things up.

Trading your All-Star third baseman is bold and risky. Even one with injury and possibly mobility problems. Trading your All-Star third baseman for a 34 year old journeyman reliever (even one with the level of success that Balfour has had in 3 of the last 4 years) is a franchise crippling move. As far as him being a bad-egg, Pedroia (and others) came to defense pretty quickly after Bobby V called him out.

I'm also not advocating against trading him, but you do so with an eye on replenishing the farm system. Trading him AND his salary (when your FO is already looking in the sofa cushions for loose change) for a MR like Balfour is the very definition of cutting your nose to spite your face.

Edited by paulb0t, 23 April 2012 - 06:32 PM.

[ivanvamp]

I'm also not advocating against trading him, but you do so with an eye on replenishing the farm system. Trading him AND his salary (when your FO is already looking in the sofa cushions for loose change) for a MR like Balfour is the very definition of cutting your nose to spite your face.

Not necessarily. As I've said, it is indeed risky, and it could backfire. But if you weren't planning on keeping Youks anyway in 2013, and this backfires, then you lose out for one season. It's not like trading away a guy with 3 years left on his deal.

And there's good reason to believe that Balfour would be very good here, so you'd be shoring up an area of tremendous weakness right now.

Frankly, I don't know what other moves could reasonably be made that aren't simply of the "wait-it-out-and-hope-it-gets-better" variety. Which may not be the wrong thing to do.

Look, I'm not advocating unloading Beckett and Buchholz. We're talking about a very good (when healthy) 3b who has faced significant injury issues and will be 34 next year, and who they probably won't re-sign after this season.

[paulb0t]

Not necessarily. As I've said, it is indeed risky, and it could backfire. But if you weren't planning on keeping Youks anyway in 2013, and this backfires, then you lose out for one season. It's not like trading away a guy with 3 years left on his deal.

And there's good reason to believe that Balfour would be very good here, so you'd be shoring up an area of tremendous weakness right now.

Frankly, I don't know what other moves could reasonably be made that aren't simply of the "wait-it-out-and-hope-it-gets-better" variety. Which may not be the wrong thing to do.

Look, I'm not advocating unloading Beckett and Buchholz. We're talking about a very good (when healthy) 3b who has faced significant injury issues and will be 34 next year, and who they probably won't re-sign after this season.

The Red Sox hold an option for 2013. If he produces at his typical level, you have an elite offensive 3B signed at a very reasonable $13 million - or a near-elite DH if you can't bring back David Ortiz. If he doesn't, you decline the option, collect a draft pick, and you're in more or less the same scenario you are right now. Both of those scenarios are significantly better than Balfour, who, as I pointed out previously, had a 3.33 road ERA in 2011, and got walloped by the AL East contenders. Which isn't to say I don't think he'd be a bad trade target, but trading someone who, even in a down season was good for 4.3 WAR for a MR who, in a great year, was good for 2.2 WAR, while paying the salary of both, doesn't do the Red Sox any favors.

Bottom line, even if it's panic in the disco, you just don't make this specific move.

Edited by paulb0t, 23 April 2012 - 07:17 PM.

[Sampo Gida]

I admitted that the idea of trading Youkilis and bringing up Middlebrooks is a risk. No question about that. But ask yourself this: as he turns 34 next March, and is currently in the last year of his contract, do you think the Red Sox will re-sign him for 2013? If so, how much do you think they'll pay him while their up-and-coming 3b of the future sits in the minors, tearing up AAA pitching? And if you don't think the Sox will re-sign him, why not make a bold move now and get something of value for him and bring up your future 3b just a little sooner than you would have anyway?

I never said I was opposed to trading Youk. The reason to trade him is to make room for WMB, not because he had a poor 14 games .

I only argue with the contention he is toast. The same arguments were made with Papi 3 years ago after he missed time with a bad wrist and got off to an awful start for 2 months in 2009. Maybe he never regains full health, but I think it is premature to say he won't now.

Any trade will have to wait until the trading deadline to a team looking for a bat in a playoff race. Won't get much for him in April after a bad start.

[ivanvamp]

I never said I was opposed to trading Youk. The reason to trade him is to make room for WMB, not because he had a poor 14 games .

Well, the other two possible reasons to trade him are (1) if you think he's a clubhouse problem, and/or (2) he is one of the few guys that you could deal, given his contract and track record, and actually get something useful back.

I only argue with the contention he is toast. The same arguments were made with Papi 3 years ago after he missed time with a bad wrist and got off to an awful start for 2 months in 2009. Maybe he never regains full health, but I think it is premature to say he won't now.

I agree. He might. But again, he's aging fast and has missed a TON of games each of the past two seasons. Hard to believe he'll suddenly be healthy for a full season now. But I suppose it's possible.

Any trade will have to wait until the trading deadline to a team looking for a bat in a playoff race. Won't get much for him in April after a bad start.

You're probably right about that.

[keyalyn]

If the trade deadline rolls around and the offense is still excellent, Middlebrooks is still raking in AAA, and there is still a need in the bullpen or rotation, then Youkilis should absolutely become a trade chip for them. He shouldn't be traded to the first team to offer up some decent middle reliever, but he is expendable if the right deal comes along where they can add a solid bullpen arm or two. With a solid replacement behind him and the fact he is unlikely to be brought back, why not trade him to fill a hole or two?

[fineyoungarm]

This is way off the shake up the bullpen topic, but lots of given and take about Youklis - so there's this - is he a problem in the club house? If so, that may well be more of a factor about what ultimately is done with him than diminished skills.

I am familiar with the "yes he is" "not he isn't" "who knows?" arguments.

Then there is this. I am sure several of you have noticed that on BBTN Francona is quick to sing the praises about those he found to be among the "good guys" (either in the club house or in terms of team play - not necessarily the same). His comments have not been limited to those he managed.

What may be more interesting are his silences. The "qualities" of a given player, with whom he is very familiar, are being discussed and, despite the golden opportunity, Tito says - nothing.

Nothing could be less "scientific" than this analysis, but Youklis' name has come up several times, due to his struggles, and Francona has not had much to say - at least when I have been watching.

Edited by fineyoungarm, 24 April 2012 - 12:12 PM.

[MakMan44]

If the trade deadline rolls around and the offense is still excellent, Middlebrooks is still raking in AAA, and there is still a need in the bullpen or rotation, then Youkilis should absolutely become a trade chip for them. He shouldn't be traded to the first team to offer up some decent middle reliever, but he is expendable if the right deal comes along where they can add a solid bullpen arm or two. With a solid replacement behind him and the fact he is unlikely to be brought back, why not trade him to fill a hole or two?

Exactly. I still advocate trying to get Balfour, only for something less that Youk though, but as much as I want Youk gone(for WMB), it doesn't make sense to do it now. You need to see if MB can keep his hot start up, whether Youk can still hit at an elite level and only then do you make a move to see what we can for him.

[The Best Catch in 100 Years]

If the trade deadline rolls around and the offense is still excellent, Middlebrooks is still raking in AAA, and there is still a need in the bullpen or rotation, then Youkilis should absolutely become a trade chip for them. He shouldn't be traded to the first team to offer up some decent middle reliever, but he is expendable if the right deal comes along where they can add a solid bullpen arm or two. With a solid replacement behind him and the fact he is unlikely to be brought back, why not trade him to fill a hole or two?

I would think Youkilis (and the potential pick(s?) you'd get after the season if he leaves) is worth a little more than "a solid bullpen arm or two."

[Cellar-Door]

I would think Youkilis (and the potential pick(s?) you'd get after the season if he leaves) is worth a little more than "a solid bullpen arm or two."

Agreed, Youkilis only has real trade value if he's playing exceptionally well, if that is the case he is more valuable to the team than a reliever. If he continues his excellent Brandon Wood impersonation (If Brandon Wood had childhood polio). Then his value in trade is far less than the pick for letting him walk to a team willing to make him a DH

[fineyoungarm]

Agreed, Youkilis only has real trade value if he's playing exceptionally well, if that is the case he is more valuable to the team than a reliever. If he continues his excellent Brandon Wood impersonation (If Brandon Wood had childhood polio). Then his value in trade is far less than the pick for letting him walk to a team willing to make him a DH

Of course, he "wants" to play in Cincinnati. Which, once again, brings us back to the old Mick Jagger/Keith Richards saw, because as you and others point out, his "real" value is in the AL. (Cleveland is what, a 3 to 4 hour drive? He and Grady Sizemore can spend time on the DL together.)

Probably, he ends up somewhere between Super Youk and Last Legs Youk. That makes it tougher, if he is an issue in the clubhouse. Mid-season trade for a meh player, to make Beckett less unhappy (which should be a goal for all of us), or keep him around out of hope for some late season clutch hits, assuming the team is in the hunt for a playoff spot.

[keyalyn]

I would think Youkilis (and the potential pick(s?) you'd get after the season if he leaves) is worth a little more than "a solid bullpen arm or two."

Not necessarily. If you assume Youkilis is an overall 3.9WAR player (he was worth 7.8WAR over the past two seasons) then it wouldn't be a stretch to get a majority of that value back in a trade for two relievers. If you throw in a prospect coming back to Boston it would absolutely make it worth it. Factoring in that Middlebrooks' production is likely to be substantially better than the two bullpen arms who exit after the trade, then the result would be a significant increase in overall value to the team.

[paulb0t]

Where are you pulling your WAR numbers from? BREF has him at 4.8 (2010) and 4.3 (2011), for 9.1 over two years (or an average 4.5, rounding down).

To replace that, you'd need essentially need to trade Youklis for two of the following: Craig Kimbrell, Jonathan Papelbon, Sean Marshall, David Robertson, and Mariano Rivera. That's probably not happening, even if the Sox pay the balance on Youks deal (as has been suggested previously).

Of course, it's not in a vacuum, so you'd likely overall see an improvement with the combination of jettisoning neutral or negative relievers (Padilla, et al.), but there's no guarantee that WMB and his <150 AAA at-bats is ready to contribute at the major league level.

The whole notion of moving a guy who has been an All-Star performer the last 4 seasons for a MR or two just seems baffling. I know we're all excited about Middlebrooks, but the only way it really makes sense to trade Youkilis is if the Sox decide to punt 2012, and trade him for high-level minor league talent.

[Sampo Gida]

http://mlb.mlb.com/n...rtnerId=rss_bos


Great Ben, the biggest problem we have and you don't want to change it. The Yankees are a good hitting team, not the best but good. If our middle and late relief can't pull through and in fact get absolutely slammed, then yes it is time to make some changes. Why not see if we could pry a reliever away from the A's for Lars? I'd never recommenced trading away anything of serious value for relief but it's not like we have no chance of competing. The most glaring issue is our relief pitching and your previous trades haven't worked out, go out and see what you can get. Now, not the All Star break were we could be down 10+ games because our relief pitching has sucked so much.

Here is a game lost to the Orioles up 10-1 going into the bottom of the 7th, and a loss 11-10. That was in 2009, a team that won 95 games and went tom the playoffs (albeit briefly thanks to Paps BS in game 3 of the ALDS)

http://www.baseball-...200906300.shtml

Paps got the BS in this one, but Masterson, MDC, Okajima and Saito also pitched in the 2 innings of suck

Just to refresh everyone's memory, the Orioles lost 98 games in 2009 and the Red Sox had the 2nd best bullpen in the AL (by ERA) while the Orioles offense was 11th in RS.

Virtually every team has to reconstruct their pen every year due to the volatility of reliever s Y2Y. The smart teams find RP'ers internally, and the Red Sox probably have help coming internally as well. Hills coming back soon, and Alex Wilson has been moved to the pen.

Aceves has 1 more BS than Rivera, and has done ok when used conventionally ( 9th inning, starting clean). Morales has been ok when used wisely, as has Albers (aside from Albers allowing a 350 ft Fenway HR to Tex),. Tazawa and Atchison have been good and lets face it, JThomas has limited LHB'ers to a 550 OPS. Against RHB'ers, that OPS is up to 1365. Memo to Bobby V, use JT as a LOOGY (pretty , pretty please).

The Twinkies probably making the pen look better than they are (4 1/3 IP scoreless innings ex Bard), but the pen is likely not as hopeless as it seemed after 2 bad games and a rocky start if used wisely.

Ben is a smart guy for not pushing the panic button and not listening to the WEEI crowd, and regrettably, some on this board.

Edited by Sampo Gida, 25 April 2012 - 05:19 AM.

[keyalyn]

Where are you pulling your WAR numbers from? BREF has him at 4.8 (2010) and 4.3 (2011), for 9.1 over two years (or an average 4.5, rounding down).

To replace that, you'd need essentially need to trade Youklis for two of the following: Craig Kimbrell, Jonathan Papelbon, Sean Marshall, David Robertson, and Mariano Rivera. That's probably not happening, even if the Sox pay the balance on Youks deal (as has been suggested previously).

Of course, it's not in a vacuum, so you'd likely overall see an improvement with the combination of jettisoning neutral or negative relievers (Padilla, et al.), but there's no guarantee that WMB and his <150 AAA at-bats is ready to contribute at the major league level.

The whole notion of moving a guy who has been an All-Star performer the last 4 seasons for a MR or two just seems baffling. I know we're all excited about Middlebrooks, but the only way it really makes sense to trade Youkilis is if the Sox decide to punt 2012, and trade him for high-level minor league talent.

Fangraphs, which uses UZR to evaluate defense rather than BR's preference of Range Factor. The Rangers managed to add 3.1WAR worth of relievers at the deadline last season in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. If Boston can get a package like that plus a prospect, it would be a potentially smart deal for them to improve themselves for this season.

There is no guarantee that Middlebrooks will be better than the two jettisoned relievers, but I am pretty confident that would be the case. If he can be league average at 3B it would likely be a significant improvement over the last two guys in the pen. It would be a risk, sure, but the type of risk that could potentially pay huge dividends.

[Cellar-Door]

Fangraphs, which uses UZR to evaluate defense rather than BR's preference of Range Factor. The Rangers managed to add 3.1WAR worth of relievers at the deadline last season in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara. If Boston can get a package like that plus a prospect, it would be a potentially smart deal for them to improve themselves for this season.

There is no guarantee that Middlebrooks will be better than the two jettisoned relievers, but I am pretty confident that would be the case. If he can be league average at 3B it would likely be a significant improvement over the last two guys in the pen. It would be a risk, sure, but the type of risk that could potentially pay huge dividends.

In order to get that the Rangers gave up: a top 5 prospect, a top 20 prospect, A 24 year old competent MLB SP, and a 25 year old 1B both under control until 2016. That's a whole lot more attractive to the kinds of teams looking to move RP than Youkilis, even if he does turn things around.

[keyalyn]

In order to get that the Rangers gave up: a top 5 prospect, a top 20 prospect, A 24 year old competent MLB SP, and a 25 year old 1B both under control until 2016. That's a whole lot more attractive to the kinds of teams looking to move RP than Youkilis, even if he does turn things around.

I wouldn't be so sure of that. A team in need of offense and a solid bullpen could be willing to give up one of their relievers to get a solid middle of the order hitter. Both San Diego and Baltimore were going nowhere last year, so they were more interested in younger, cost controlled guys.

[Cellar-Door]

I wouldn't be so sure of that. A team in need of offense and a solid bullpen could be willing to give up one of their relievers to get a solid middle of the order hitter. Both San Diego and Baltimore were going nowhere last year, so they were more interested in younger, cost controlled guys.

Kevin Youkilis does not have that kind of value. Also when was the last time a playoff team traded away a top reliever nevermind 2 top relievers.
The easiest way to point this out is this: If the Red Sox were offered Tommy Hunter, Chris Davis, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland for Youkilis they would take it in a second, Ben would personally pack Youk's bags.

[NoMaRRaMoN]

In order to get that the Rangers gave up: a top 5 prospect, a top 20 prospect, A 24 year old competent MLB SP, and a 25 year old 1B both under control until 2016. That's a whole lot more attractive to the kinds of teams looking to move RP than Youkilis, even if he does turn things around.

Especially the type of team that would be getting rid of a good reliever at the deadline. Teams like that aren't usually in win now mode; and Youk is a win-now type player (based on salary, age, and declining skill sets).

[keyalyn]

Kevin Youkilis does not have that kind of value. Also when was the last time a playoff team traded away a top reliever nevermind 2 top relievers.
The easiest way to point this out is this: If the Red Sox were offered Tommy Hunter, Chris Davis, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland for Youkilis they would take it in a second, Ben would personally pack Youk's bags.

So Youkilis is too valuable to trade for a reliever, and not valuable enough for a reliever?

He would have tremendous value to a team that needs offense with a great pen, with the option of keeping him for next year for cheap or to get picks in the offseason. Expecting the team to give up two relievers would be too much, so it would probably be a three way or a separate with additional prospects coming back in the first trade for Youkilils. Regardless, it should be considered.

[Cellar-Door]

So Youkilis is too valuable to trade for a reliever, and not valuable enough for a reliever?

He would have tremendous value to a team that needs offense with a great pen, with the option of keeping him for next year for cheap or to get picks in the offseason. Expecting the team to give up two relievers would be too much, so it would probably be a three way or a separate with additional prospects coming back in the first trade for Youkilils. Regardless, it should be considered.

My point was this: Youkilis if he is playing well has more value to this team than a single reliever, even more so than the relievers a contending team (the only kind of team that would take Youk) is willing to let go in a playoff race. If he's playing poorly he has no trade value at all, and the compensation for his leaving as a FA is better than any trade return.
As a note, you are forgetting that under the new CBA a team trading for Youk would not get compensation picks for him after the season. You had brought up the Rangers trades from last year as an example of a situation where it is worthwhile to trade Youkilis, and while I agree that may be the case, I also point out that the Rangers gave up far more valuable pieces, and obtained those relievers from Non-contenders who wanted to rebuild. The prospect/Youth haul needed was far beyond what we could get for Youk if trying to make a 3 team deal.
So yes trading Youk for 2 good RP might hypothetically be worth it at the deadline if we are contending despite our bullpen not bouncing back, but so would trading Buchholz and Nick Punto for Felix Hernandez, that doesn't mean it is feasible.

[keyalyn]

I completely agree he is more valuable than a single reliever (although if you were especially high on Middlebrooks you would argue Middlebrooks + an elite reliever is superior to Youkilis + mop-up guy, but that is not a smart risk for mid-season). If that is all they can get for him then the conversations should be shelved quickly, but I am not convinced it will likely be that way. If you are a contending team with 3 great guys at the back of the pen, but a sub-par offense in need of help, would it really be too risky to send one of those relievers away (plus some prospects) to get a legit middle of the order bat for the next 1.5 years? Even if it is still an unfeasible scenario, a trade can still work itself out. Youkilis can be traded for prospects to a contending team and those prospects can be then be shipped off to non-contenders in exchange for relievers.

Edited by keyalyn, 26 April 2012 - 07:43 AM.

[fineyoungarm]

The Twinkies probably making the pen look better than they are (4 1/3 IP scoreless innings ex Bard), but the pen is likely not as hopeless as it seemed after 2 bad games and a rocky start if used wisely.

Well, it seemed like a good thought at the time.

This bullpen will not get the team to the playoffs, and that is what this is about. Period. Think 85 wins - best case - with this relief corps (and a very dermoralized team). However, when terms like "blow it up" are thrown around, I don't know what that means - realistically. Maybe 3 bullpen "changes" - and if the team wants a real shot at post season play, they will have to be made.

The most basic approach would be to reinstate last year's pen to the extent possible. That means Aceves a the bridge guy and Bard as the 8th inning guy. All others - role players.

So, who if anybody is elsewhere to close (and, if the answer is nobody, then it's Bard - he has to remain in the pen and Aaron Cook - OMG - becomes the 5th starter until Dice K returns) and what are you willling to give up for him? Of course, forget a top flight, proven guy on any team that has a shot. Also, it is tough right now to deal with teams that know they will be out of the running.

Any ideas? Houston Street - but man, that ERA in a pitchers park. Brett Myers remains attractive, but Houston will want youth for him, not an aging 3rd baseman alone - regardless of what he might accomplish this year.

The team is going to have to give up some talent to get some talent (Brilliant!). Of your everyday starters, Youk is most expendable because of Middlebrooks. With whom do you pair him to attract a building team to take an aging star?

Borderline prospects? Anderson and Iglesias probably fall into that categorie. I think SD and Hst might be interested (if the Red Sox conclude Street is better than his last year #s or Myers is the real deal in relief). Youk and high draft choice(s) - same answer.

Now let's start to blow things up. Has Aviles shown enough to make him attractive? Suck it up and deal Lavarnway? If Crawford's elbow ailment is "minor" - him (and eat some of his contract)? Ellsbury - because you're convinced he cannot be resigned? (Dealing Crawford or Ellsbury for serious bullpen improvment (and that would be a lot more then Street or Myers) AND some other sterling talent - has to be considered, if this team hopes to win 92 or so games, AND a Youk or Youk with whomever is of ne interest.)

None of these options are obvious "do its". However, it will take the loss of a notable player or two, to get a closer who may or may not work out. That's where we are - if post season in 2012 is a serious goal.

Edited by fineyoungarm, 26 April 2012 - 10:24 AM.

[Towney007]

Brett Meyers would be fun if for only the fact that it would guarantee that the 2012 Red Sox become baseball's version of the late 80's Detroit Pistons. Wife beating, beer drinking, yelling, whining juggernaut of hate.


But seriously, no. Panicing at this point is stupid. Things are already looking better. This isn't going to be the 'pen to get it done, but if they can find a piece or two in addition to Aceves, they're going to be in much better shape when it's time for Bailey and the trade deadline.