106 replies to this topic

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

Fair enough... I suppose I was more talking about the expected results going into the sixth with a 6 run lead more so then his periferrals. Between Melancon's recovery, Hill and Miller's rehab and either a trade or free agent signing (Gonzales, although he may be redundant with Hill/Miller coming) the sox should be able to fix the pen.

[Derek's Friend]

They need to make a trade... I hate giving up prospects from a farm system that is really enjoying a great start to improve a team that very likely won't contend, but something must be done to stabilize the pen.

It will be detrimental to the mental state of guys like Doubront and such who pitch well only to have suck happen.

If Youks had any trade value you could move him for a proven closer and call up Middlebrooks.

I wonder if Billy Beane still loves Youk? Maybe he'd give up Balfour for him and a prospect. Not like Oakland is going anywhere.

[Skiponzo]

I understand that Youks is struggling and has not been able to stay on the field the past 2 years, but you want to trade a guy who has a career OPS of .870+ AND a prospect...for a reliever? I don't have the answer to the bullpen issues but that trade seems shortsighted.

[rembrat]

I wonder if Billy Beane still loves Youk? Maybe he'd give up Balfour for him and a prospect. Not like Oakland is going anywhere.

That doesn't mean they'll bend over for the Sox. Lars would get you some relievers though.

[Rudy Pemberton]

I wonder if Billy Beane still loves Youk? Maybe he'd give up Balfour for him and a prospect. Not like Oakland is going anywhere.

So, then what appeal does Youkilis, an old, expensive, free agent to be have to them?

[czar]

I understand that Youks is struggling and has not been able to stay on the field the past 2 years, but you want to trade a guy who has a career OPS of .870+ AND a prospect...for a reliever? I don't have the answer to the bullpen issues but that trade seems shortsighted.

Not to mention that Beane would probably rather not have a mid 30's Youkilis and his $13 mil or whatever on his roster when he knows he's just going to let him walk come October. Only way he'd do that is if he thought he was buying low and could flip him for more in a few months, but the way Youkilis is playing-- it's a huge stretch.

Rich Hill will soon (mercifully) displace Justin Thomas. Melancon should get his head on straight eventually. I like the idea of Mike Gonzalez. I'd even see where someone like Damaso Marte was in his rehab. Alex Wilson has been moved to the pen. The Sox have options to improve the bullpen that don't involve getting bent over a barrel.

Edited by czar, 26 April 2012 - 09:33 AM.

[The Gray Eagle]

In the last few months we've already traded Reddick, Lowrie, Weiland and Scutaro for relief pitchers. That's a lot of assets for actually less than nothing in return so far. (Hopefully Bailey actually pitches some important innings for us late in the season, so it's not a complete washout. But there's no guarantee that he actually will.)

We need to stop trading for relief pitchers, not do it even more. We've got Hill and Wilson in AAA right now (along with WTF with Mark Melancon.) Mike Gonzalez is a free agent. Supposedly we might have Matsuzaka coming back to the rotation in a month, maybe pushing someone else to the bullpen. Cook might be added to the rotation in a few days, pushing someone to the pen. (Not saying that I want that to happen, but it might.) And it's very early in the season, and some of the guys we already have should get better. Trading for a reliever would mean dumping someone from our current pen (other than Thomas, who will be gone when Hill arrives.)

There's no need to trade even more assets for yet another reliever-- since they are so volatile, you just have no idea what you'll get from one. Just one painful example: Eric Gagne looked good for half a season before we traded for him, and then was horriffic as soon as we got him. We need to make some changes and give some other arms some chances, but we've got plenty of options we can try in-house. We'd better not trade anything useful for another volatile reliever, that would be a panic move and one that could backfire just as easily as the other reliever trades we've made.

[Derek's Friend]

So, then what appeal does Youkilis, an old, expensive, free agent to be have to them?

It was more of the prospect I had in mind. I'm pretty sure he's over his fascination with Youk. Middlebrooks is destroying AAA right now. Would just be an opportunity to move him up. Maybe they'd send us Willingham and Balfour for Youk (to make the money closer to even) and say Lars and a low/medium level prospect. Does that make sense for both sides?

[Bowlerman9]

It was more of the prospect I had in mind. I'm pretty sure he's over his fascination with Youk. Middlebrooks is destroying AAA right now. Would just be an opportunity to move him up. Maybe they'd send us Willingham and Balfour for Youk (to make the money closer to even) and say Lars and a low/medium level prospect. Does that make sense for both sides?

Josh Willingham, of the Minnesota Twins?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Maybe they'd send us Willingham and Balfour for Youk (to make the money closer to even) and say Lars and a low/medium level prospect. Does that make sense for both sides?

I'm sure Beane might do that, but I think the Twins would object to losing Willingham without compensation.

[xjack]

As soon as Chipper Jones goes down with his inevitable season-ending injury, the Sox should see if they can swap Youkilis for Kimbrel or Venters.

[Rudy Pemberton]

As soon as Chipper Jones goes down with his inevitable season-ending injury, the Sox should see if they can swap Youkilis for Kimbrel or Venters.

[Rasputin]

Cafardo tweets the Sox will recall Hill on Friday.

[Derek's Friend]

I'm sure Beane might do that, but I think the Twins would object to losing Willingham without compensation.

Ahhh, yeah I think my head was up my ass on that one. Living in 2011 I guess. My bad.

[JakeRae]

Why would you wait until tomorrow to bring up Hill?

Because Hill would be unavailable today after having pitched two straight days.

[24JoshuaPoint]

Is it just me or are we finally getting 6+ from the starters. Nice to have the bullpen have to respond like a bullpen.

(null)

[Rudy Pemberton]

Yeah, it's amazing how much better the pen looks when it only has to go 2-3 innings. The activation of Hill and emergence of Tazawa have the potential to solidify the pen and stabilize some roles. Two reliable lefties should help the Sox avoid a lot of the problems we've seen. What a difference a week, and some games against AL Central teams, makes.

[joyofsox]

Since the Yankees scored their 15th run last Saturday, the Red Sox bullpen has put up this line 15-9-1-2-11. 0.60.

[mabrowndog]

How much longer can the Sox keep Miller on his rehab assignment?

2 Ks tonight to end the 7th in relief of Cook for the PawSox. Pulled after yielding a leadoff single to Indians mega-prospect Lonnie Chisenhall (who later scored the tying run when Tony Pena Jr. couldn't hold the lead). 10 pitches, 8 strikes.

From Alex Speier's column this morning

Andrew Miller has now made seven appearances during his rehab assignment with Triple-A Pawtucket. He’s only allowed runs in two of those, yet particularly in comparison to the straight line progression of Rich Hill, it feels like considerably more than that. On Friday, Miller did record three strikeouts (all swinging) in an inning of work, but after he blitzed through two strikeouts to start the inning, he allowed a two-out walk and a two-run homer (the first longball he’s given up during a rehab assignment that is now more than three weeks old).

Miller’s stuff remains good enough that he’s struck out an average of more than two batters per inning in Triple-A (15 in 7 1/3 innings), and he’s permitted just three hits while holding opponents to a .115 average. Still, he’s been an adventure, with 11 walks.

One aspect of Miller’s relief work does merit consideration: He has faced 12 left-handed hitters. Just one has put a ball in play, as Miller has eight strikeouts, three walks and one ball in play (a flyout) against lefties.

[mabrowndog]

Since the Yankees scored their 15th run last Saturday, the Red Sox bullpen has put up this line 15-9-1-2-11. 0.60.

Impressive on the surface, but it's like Michigan clobbering Kent State & Western Illinois after getting their asses waxed by Alabama & Texas. There needs to be some sort of strength of schedule consideration.

[Rudy Pemberton]

This thread clearly got the team's attention and was key to their turnaround.

You're welcome.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I would not discount the performances too much for strength of schedule. Aceves was throwing filth tonight, which he did not do against the Yankees or Tigers.

[Sprowl]

I would not discount the performances too much for strength of schedule. Aceves was throwing filth tonight, which he did not do against the Yankees or Tigers.

He was throwing 95 in cold weather against the Tigers and Yankees, so I'm not sure that Alfredo is the difference.

On the other hand, his peak velocity for short bursts could be climbing. His filth may be getting filthier.

[mabrowndog]

I would not discount the performances too much for strength of schedule. Aceves was throwing filth tonight, which he did not do against the Yankees or Tigers.

Actually I agree. Padilla and Morales looked great as well. Albers' stuff was great last night. Tazawa's offerings have been solid all week.

There's no doubt they're pitching much better across the board, and with far more confidence. But while my football analogy was a bit of hyperbole, the pen is still facing a weaker group of hitters than they did over the first 2 weeks. Just want to keep things in perspective.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

He also was hitting (or just missing ) the corners, rather than beaning guys or throwing it right down the middle. He did not throw anything that any hitter could have driven. Just three batters, of course, and perhaps he needs to learn to trust that he can throw those pitches to great hitters and they won't hit them.

[LahoudOrBillyC]

I agree, dog. Let's hope they can gain the confidence they need to face the great hitters.

[Buzzkill Pauley]

He also was hitting (or just missing ) the corners, rather than beaning guys or throwing it right down the middle. He did not throw anything that any hitter could have driven. Just three batters, of course, and perhaps he needs to learn to trust that he can throw those pitches to great hitters and they won't hit them.

I actually have started to come around to the idea that Aceves' mentality adjusts to suit his pitching role.

Since Detroit, he's been generally fine when asked to get three outs in the ninth to preserve a win. But he's been pretty terrible when used out of that role, and he took a series to adjust.

He prospered when asked to be Mr. Fix-it last season, and I think he'll prosper as a closer. He just needed some time to get there. And he probably won't be the Mr. Fix-it" guy good for multiple innings.

He'll be throwing maximum gas and trying get through three outs on anger and adrenaline.

[Plympton91]

I really see no reason why Franklin Morales should be exempt from discussions of who to cut when a roster squeeze arises. He's a left handed Matt Albers. And, I don't really think there's much difference between him and Andrew Miller when it comes to being (un)able to throw strikes and good at suppressing lefthanded power.

[knucklecup]

Trade for Brett Myers.

[Sprowl]

I really see no reason why Franklin Morales should be exempt from discussions of who to cut when a roster squeeze arises. He's a left handed Matt Albers. And, I don't really think there's much difference between him and Andrew Miller when it comes to being (un)able to throw strikes and good at suppressing lefthanded power.

Dude, get real. Morales nibbles, but throws strikes with all three pitches. Miller couldn't find the strike zone with a road map nor a GPS. There are plenty of candidates for getting cut, but neither Hill nor Morales is among them.

[Pumpsie]

Who do you DL/trade/cut to get Tazawa back to the club for tomorrow's game?

DL Beckett retroactive to his last start?

Phantom DLs for Morales or Padilla?

DFA Morales or Padilla?

Something else?

[Sprowl]

Who do you DL/trade/cut to get Tazawa back to the club for tomorrow's game?

DL Beckett retroactive to his last start?

Phantom DLs for Morales or Padilla?

DFA Morales or Padilla?

Something else?

Assuming that Tazawa was optioned for a purpose, rather than sheer blind inexperienced panic on Cherington's part, you keep Beckett, Morales, Padilla and everybody else, and chalk the Orioles' loss up to bad luck. Both Morales and Padilla were throwing good stuff for the most part.

If you have to cut somebody, cut Bobby V (at least that won't damage the pitching staff), but in some cases you have to roll with the punches and blame the offense.

[Plympton91]

Dude, get real. Morales nibbles, but throws strikes with all three pitches. Miller couldn't find the strike zone with a road map nor a GPS. There are plenty of candidates for getting cut, but neither Hill nor Morales is among them.

No, he really doesn't. He's a fungible piece of crap 11th or 12th guy. There's a reason he was DFA'ed by the Rockies despite being a 25 year old lefty with a 95 mph fastball.

He got beat because he couldn't throw strikes to Wilson Betamit and left the ball in the middle of the plate to Chris Davis. He's crap. The Red Sox will not have a good bullpen until he's a mop up man, or better yet, a DFA candidate - you know, like the Rockies were able to do.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Morales isn't useless, his control isn't great but it's typical for a LH reliever (he's certainly better than Miller). Ideally, he'd be facing lefties in the 6th or 7th, or medium to low leverage situations elsewhere. He can't be one of your top set up guys, and you don't want him facing RH often (tough to do when the only reliever who can get both RH & LH out is the closer).

A week or two ago, it seemed like Padilla and Morales (certainly won't be confused with TImlin and Embree, or Bard and Okajima) were the bridge to Aceves, now I'd lean more towards HIll and.....and....Albers? Mortensen? Tazawa? Melancon?The more we see of some of these guys, the more flawed they look. Honestly, what do you do with this pen, esp. when starters aren't giving you innings?

(And that being said, the starters have really been mediocre. It's no coincidence that this team's solid stretch was built on some solid starts. Team is going nowhere if the rotation doesn't improve significantly).

Edited by Rudy Pemberton, 04 May 2012 - 11:31 PM.

[gammoseditor]

No, he really doesn't. He's a fungible piece of crap 11th or 12th guy. There's a reason he was DFA'ed by the Rockies despite being a 25 year old lefty with a 95 mph fastball.

He got beat because he couldn't throw strikes to Wilson Betamit and left the ball in the middle of the plate to Chris Davis. He's crap. The Red Sox will not have a good bullpen until he's a mop up man, or better yet, a DFA candidate - you know, like the Rockies were able to do.

Even if you were right that he's a left handed Matt Albers, you keep the lefty.

[Sprowl]

No, he really doesn't. He's a fungible piece of crap 11th or 12th guy. There's a reason he was DFA'ed by the Rockies despite being a 25 year old lefty with a 95 mph fastball.

He got beat because he couldn't throw strikes to Wilson Betamit and left the ball in the middle of the plate to Chris Davis. He's crap. The Red Sox will not have a good bullpen until he's a mop up man, or better yet, a DFA candidate - you know, like the Rockies were able to do.

Morales has good velocity, good variety and good movement. He missed his spot to Davis -- so what? Among the many problems of the 2012 Red Sox, Morales is way, way down on the list. If you DFA Morales, you are a bloody blind stupid fool. Fortunately, you won't get the chance, because another bloody blind stupid fool is the GM, but he can recognize good stuff when he can see it.

Hill was the first LHP up in a high-leverage situation. He did OK. Morales was the second. He did OK, for a while. Left-handed relievers are not the bullpen's main problem.

At the moment, the offense is the main problem.

[Nomar813]

It's a shame it was wasted, but credit to Aceves for his performance against the Orioles tonight. He got 11 swinging strikes on 38 pitches with the four-seamer, curveball, and changeup all working. Despite the concerns about his K-rate entering the year, he's shown good swing and miss stuff more often than not. It's hard to see him being available for the rest of the series, but that's not his doing.

[Alcohol&Overcalls]

No, he really doesn't. He's a fungible piece of crap 11th or 12th guy. There's a reason he was DFA'ed by the Rockies despite being a 25 year old lefty with a 95 mph fastball.

I love how Morales is "fungible" but HOLY CRAP Epstein and Cherington are morons for taking fliers on a ton of second-run relievers.

THEY ARE ALL FUNGIBLE.

[budcrew08]

Dude, get real. Morales nibbles, but throws strikes with all three pitches. Miller couldn't find the strike zone with a road map nor a GPS. There are plenty of candidates for getting cut, but neither Hill nor Morales is among them.

Morales had a bad outing. Big deal, it happens. Definitely keep Morales, he's better than a lot out there.

[budcrew08]

Morales has good velocity, good variety and good movement. He missed his spot to Davis -- so what? Among the many problems of the 2012 Red Sox, Morales is way, way down on the list. If you DFA Morales, you are a bloody blind stupid fool. Fortunately, you won't get the chance, because another bloody blind stupid fool is the GM, but he can recognize good stuff when he can see it.

Hill was the first LHP up in a high-leverage situation. He did OK. Morales was the second. He did OK, for a while. Left-handed relievers are not the bullpen's main problem.

At the moment, the offense is the main problem.

Quoted for truth. The offense needs to get its collective heads out of their collective asses.

[SumnerH]

At the moment, the offense is the main problem.

Quoted for truth. The offense needs to get its collective heads out of their collective asses.

Please explain. I generally have a high degree of faith in Sprowl's analysis, but this looks precisely opposite of what I've seen going on so far this season.

As it stands now, the Red Sox are 2nd in the league in runs scored and 3rd in OPS. They're putting up not just respectable but very good bordering on awesome numbers. Meanwhile, the pitching is 2nd to last in runs allowed and ERA, and the bullpen is the worst in the league in both categories.

I find it hard to reconcile that with the offense being the main problem.

EDIT: I'm probably misreading a distributional analysis or something--not trying to be close-minded, but to understand.

Edited by SumnerH, 05 May 2012 - 01:47 AM.

[Sprowl]

Please explain. I generally have a high degree of faith in Sprowl's analysis, but this looks precisely opposite of what I've seen going on so far this season.

As it stands now, the Red Sox are 2nd in the league in runs scored and 3rd in OPS. They're putting up not just respectable but very good bordering on awesome numbers. Meanwhile, the pitching is 2nd to last in runs allowed and ERA, and the bullpen is the worst in the league in both categories.

I find it hard to reconcile that with the offense being the main problem.

A fair point. The inconsistency of the offense has been a problem, not the overall productivity. I'm mainly reacting out of frustration to the offense's inability over the last three games to take on what seem to me to be league-average (or worse) pitchers. How many of the Red Sox runs have come in blowouts? It feels like a lot of the runs have come against the Milonest of the league, and relatively few when they were needed. Is there a good metric for weighting unclutch runs?

Or am I just too attached to the current starting rotation?

Regardless of those questions, I think the current bullpen is full of good arms and Bobby Valentine seems to be getting a better feel for how to sequence them. Out of the following, the team should keep all:

Aceves has amped up his velocity as closer, and could be growing into the job.
Hill (LRL)
Atchison (RLR)
Morales (LRL)
Albers (RLR + groundball situations)
Padilla (RLR + long relief + headhunting)

Mortensen may have Moyer-like gifts with the slop, though I doubt it. He'll probably get another opportunity. Tazawa will provide solid RLR and long relief when he replaces Mortensen, which I hope will be soon.

That bullpen is a little weak for high-leverage situations, but it is far from the worst bullpen ever assembled. With skillful deployment, it could be quite good.

[budcrew08]

My thought is about getting everyone going in the same direction. When the offense struggles, the pitching stinks. (Jon Lester's 1-0 win over the Chi-Sox not withstanding)
When the offense gets going, the pitching still stinks, like the 12-11 game and the 15-9 game.
Numbers don't lie, but they don't always tell the full story.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Morales has good velocity, good variety and good movement. He missed his spot to Davis -- so what? Among the many problems of the 2012 Red Sox, Morales is way, way down on the list. If you DFA Morales, you are a bloody blind stupid fool. Fortunately, you won't get the chance, because another bloody blind stupid fool is the GM, but he can recognize good stuff when he can see it.

Hill was the first LHP up in a high-leverage situation. He did OK. Morales was the second. He did OK, for a while. Left-handed relievers are not the bullpen's main problem.

At the moment, the offense is the main problem.

Thank you. The O's pen pitched 8 innings tonight and the Sox got to them for...3 hits. A terrible performance.

[Pumpsie]

Assuming that Tazawa was optioned for a purpose, rather than sheer blind inexperienced panic on Cherington's part, you keep Beckett, Morales, Padilla and everybody else, and chalk the Orioles' loss up to bad luck. Both Morales and Padilla were throwing good stuff for the most part.

If you have to cut somebody, cut Bobby V (at least that won't damage the pitching staff), but in some cases you have to roll with the punches and blame the offense.

I'm thinking about who is actually available to back up Cook today and if he crashes and burns, ...and the pen has to pitch another five innings or so today...who is going to be available on Sunday. Is it Cook or bust today?

[rembrat]

Cook has to suck it up and eat innings although I wouldn't worry about pen availability since:

Valentine said he would be surprised if Aceves isn't available today -- Rob Bradford (@bradfo)

Awful.

[Plympton91]

Or am I just too attached to the current starting rotation?

Regardless of those questions, I think the current bullpen is full of good arms and Bobby Valentine seems to be getting a better feel for how to sequence them. Out of the following, the team should keep all:

Aceves has amped up his velocity as closer, and could be growing into the job.
Hill (LRL)
Atchison (RLR)
Morales (LRL)
Albers (RLR + groundball situations)
Padilla (RLR + long relief + headhunting)

Mortensen may have Moyer-like gifts with the slop, though I doubt it. He'll probably get another opportunity. Tazawa will provide solid RLR and long relief when he replaces Mortensen, which I hope will be soon.

That bullpen is a little weak for high-leverage situations, but it is far from the worst bullpen ever assembled. With skillful deployment, it could be quite good.

Including Tazawa or Mortenson, that's 7. If you add the current starting rotation, that's 12.

So, you can't keep all those guys, keep Tazawa in the majors as they absolutely must do soon, and add Cook, and then Matsuzaka, without having a 13 man staff or cutting some of them. And, Melancon is certainly going to pitch his way back onto the staff sooner or later.

Rudy has been making a key point here that's getting overlooked. They have to get more relievers who can pitch effectively to both righties and lefties. Given that I'm not willing to write off the season, I'm ready to bite the bullet and concede that Bard goes to the pen if Matsuzaka makes it back. That's a shame, and a failure of the front office, and an indictment of anybody who said they could afford to let Papelbon go.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Shouldn't Padilla, Hill, Atchison and Mortensen all be available? Why are people acting as if this is such a big deal?

[Pumpsie]

Shouldn't Padilla, Hill, Atchison and Mortensen all be available? Why are people acting as if this is such a big deal?

I feel good about Hill and Atchison right now. Unless we can score a ton of runs, and/or unless Cook can go a strong seven innings, today's game will probably depend on Padilla and Mortensen.

[Pumpsie]

Awful.

Well, if McClure does HIS job, Aceves won't be on the available list today. We'll see.