106 replies to this topic

[Rudy Pemberton]

Name one worse.

[jose melendez]

I've been thinking about this, and I'm not sure I've ever seen a bullpen where there was no one I thought wsa likely to hold say a four run lead. Anyone on the Nats staff would be the best reliever on this team.

[Super Nomario]

The record worst bullpen ERA is 6.16 (Tampa, 2007). The Red Sox are at 6.13.

Not including today's game.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

The bullpen at the start of 2003 comes to mind - Brandon Lyon and Chad Fox were supposed to be key contributors but both were duds, and the embedded Yankee Ramiro Mendoza was routinely clobbered. At least that pen had effective pitchers in Timlin and Embree. The Sox went out and got Kim and Williamson to stop the bleeding - any chance we can do something similar?

But really, does it matter? Anybody who's studied the issue knows that just about any pitcher can get three outs. Closers are sooooo overrated.

[TheYellowDart5]

Who would've thought that losing the two best relievers from last year's team would be a bad thing.

In all seriousness, what, if anything, can be done? Literally no one in the bullpen is good. Morales is no good against right-handers and Aceves can't miss bats and the back-end is full of guys who would be struggling in Triple-A and retreads. How do you fix a bullpen wherein every reliever is bad?

[TheYellowDart5]

The record worst bullpen ERA is 6.16 (Tampa, 2007). The Red Sox are at 6.13.

Not including today's game.

Currently at 9.08, worst mark in the majors by about a run.

[jose melendez]

The bullpen at the start of 2003 comes to mind - Brandon Lyon and Chad Fox were supposed to be key contributors but both were duds, and the embedded Yankee Ramiro Mendoza was routinely clobbered. At least that pen had effective pitchers in Timlin and Embree. The Sox went out and got Kim and Williamson to stop the bleeding - any chance we can do something similar?

But really, does it matter? Anybody who's studied the issue knows that just about any pitcher can get three outs. Closers are sooooo overrated.

That bullpen was way, way better. Any of the gyus you just listed would be the best pitcher in the pen.

[simplyeric]

.

Not including today's game.

Damn you.

[bschase2]

In all seriousness, what, if anything, can be done? Literally no one in the bullpen is good. Morales is no good against right-handers and Aceves can't miss bats and the back-end is full of guys who would be struggling in Triple-A and retreads. How do you fix a bullpen wherein every reliever is bad?

You don't. They are going to keep throwing the kitchen sink out there till something sticks.

[Stitch01]

Most guys will regress to mediocre. It won't be this bad obviously. Use Tazawa more, try miller, hill, doubront (when cook is back) melancon if hes not hurt should get another shot. Do NOT spend any future assets on fixing the bullpen and do NOT move Bard back to the pen.

[crystalline]

I walked away from today's game in the top of the sixth right after Ross's homer made it a 9-0 lead. I had closed the book on the game in my head.
But then I saw a thread titled 'Worst Bullpen Ever' and it took a few seconds of thinking before I realized what a thread like that meant, and flipped over and checked the box score. I still don't think I can wrap my head around a comeback like that - Doubront was pitching a shutout, the offense had built a 9 run, and every Sox batter in the 5th hit the ball hard. Incredible.

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

They need to make a trade... I hate giving up prospects from a farm system that is really enjoying a great start to improve a team that very likely won't contend, but something must be done to stabilize the pen.

It will be detrimental to the mental state of guys like Doubront and such who pitch well only to have suck happen.

If Youks had any trade value you could move him for a proven closer and call up Middlebrooks.

[Tony C]

Most guys will regress to mediocre. It won't be this bad obviously. Use Tazawa more, try miller, hill, doubront (when cook is back) melancon if hes not hurt should get another shot. Do NOT spend any future assets on fixing the bullpen and do NOT move Bard back to the pen.

Yes, because talent doesn't matter, just an abstract statistical notion of regression to the mean.

Are you Ben Cherington?

[rembrat]

I cant think of a single thing they can do. They aren't going to get rid of anyone until Hill is ready. And Bard isnt the answer because he can't pitch every single day.

Tazawa is a start, maybe, until he blows up.

[ngruz25]

I assume that the teams that have even a hope of contending aren't going to part with valuable arms at this point in the season. I think, then, it's time to get on the phone with the non-contenders and see what's available.

The Pirates come to mind as a good fit. Evan Meek, Chris Resop, and Jared Hughes are all serviceable or better relievers that should be available for a decent price. Lars Anderson would probably be attractive to them, as they're extremely weak at the corners. Throw in a low level prospect and I think they'd bite.

[Stitch01]

Yes, because talent doesn't matter, just an abstract statistical notion of regression to the mean.

Are you Ben Cherington?

Aceves, Albers, and melancon aren't terrible pitchers. The bullpens true talent level isn't as bad as they've shown. It's a bad pen, but not this bad.
No idea what you are so snarky about, I didn't say talent doesn't matter. Take a midol or something.

Edit: Meant morales no idea why I wrote Albers

Edited by Stitch01, 21 April 2012 - 07:14 PM.

[czar]

Yes, because talent doesn't matter, just an abstract statistical notion of regression to the mean.

Are you Ben Cherington?

I don't think he's arguing the bullpen will become good, but do you really think they'll put up a 9+ ERA for the rest of the year? (I mean, I know Aceves' xFIP was bad last year. But not THAT bad!)

The lack of even moderate upside arms in the minors to throw at the wall to replace Justin Thomas, Michael Bowden, and Matt Albers are this team's biggest problem.

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Aceves was awesome last year as a middle and setup man. He's been awful as a closer. Moving him back to a role where he was succesful might be a start.

Moving Bard back into the pen might be another.

[Tony C]

Of course I don't think they'll have a 9+ ERA for the year. So, in that sense, yes, they'll be some regression to the mean. But that doesn't mean it is or will be a good pen unless it has good pitchers. This mantra that you shouldn't put assets in the pen drives me nuts, no matter how often it's repeated. The idea that we shouldn't use assets or Bard to fix the pen is to resign ourselves to a bad pen, even if not as bad as 9+ ERA.

[Reverend]

Aceves, Albers, and melancon aren't terrible pitchers. The bullpens true talent level isn't as bad as they've shown. It's a bad pen, but not this bad.
No idea what you are so snarky about, I didn't say talent doesn't matter. Take a midol or something.

Edit: Meant morales no idea why I wrote Albers

He's being snarky about the fact that it doesn't make sense to look at a sample, define it as an aberration, and then conclude there will be regression to the mean. There is all kinds of scientificationally sounding ideas in such a view, but it's not rigorous and it is unsound without additional evidence. Also, the fact that just about everyone in the pen is now playing a different role complicates the approach of using past data, so say nothing of the posited nature of whatever "true talent" means.

That said, I sorta think this thread should have been locked before it was started and there should be a 12 hour moratorium on starting new threads, so I guess the fact that I'm posting in it means I'm in a poor mood.

[czar]

He's being snarky about the fact that it doesn't make sense to look at a sample, define it as an aberration, and then conclude there will be regression to the mean. There is all kinds of scientificationally sounding ideas in such a view, but it's not rigorous and it is unsound without additional evidence. Also, the fact that just about everyone in the pen is now playing a different role complicates the approach of using past data, so say nothing of the posited nature of whatever "true talent" means.

That said, I sorta think this thread should have been locked before it was started and there should be a 12 hour moratorium on starting new threads, so I guess the fact that I'm posting in it means I'm in a poor mood.

It's certainly not a sure thing, but when the sample (15 games) you are talking about is ~2% of the bullpen's career body of work, making an assumption that most of them are likely to return to somewhere near past levels (even if just at or even a bit below league average) seems like the most logical train of thought.*

*This in no way excuses the bullpen for being bad. Just that you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who predicted them being THIS bad three weeks ago.

Edited by czar, 21 April 2012 - 07:25 PM.

[Stitch01]

Of course I don't think they'll have a 9+ ERA for the year. So, in that sense, yes, they'll be some regression to the mean. But that doesn't mean it is or will be a good pen unless it has good pitchers. This mantra that you shouldn't put assets in the pen drives me nuts, no matter how often it's repeated. The idea that we shouldn't use assets or Bard to fix the pen is to resign ourselves to a bad pen, even if not as bad as 9+ ERA.

I don't think this team contends, so I'd rather figure out where Bard is best used as an asset long term. It's not like the starting rotation is rolling or we have a lot of attractive replacements for Bard in the rotation.

[Reverend]

It's certainly not a sure thing, but when the sample (15 games) you are talking about is ~2% of the bullpen's career body of work, making an assumption that most of them are likely to return to somewhere near past levels (even if just at or even a bit below league average) seems like the most logical train of thought.*

* This is no way excuses the bullpen for being bad. Just that you'd be hard-pressed to find someone who predicted them being THIS bad three weeks ago.

Maybe. But has anyone done any work on the reliability of the predictability of past stats when a pitcher's usage has changed?

I guess I'm thinking of something like "the closer debate" but more rigorous. It seems like there is stuff out there to suggest that some people pitch differently in different leverage situations, yeah? So if we reshuffle the whole pen, how much of a qualifier on the data do we need before we can discuss how much regression will occur?

I don't know the answer to that last question. But I would welcome thoughts.

[86spike]

Relief pitchers' performance is the most volatile aspect in MLB from year to year.

The number of MLB relievers who have consistent stats each year with little variation is much lower than the number of relievers who don't.

Yes, they likely won't all sport massive ERAs all season. However, it is wholly possible that this collection of RPs are fluctuating to a disaster year, all at the same time. They might just all suck all year.

[Stitch01]

They could be the worst pen in league history and they'd still pitch materially better than they have so far.

[JakeRae]

Is it time to shift Alex Wilson to the pen?

[Reverend]

Relief pitchers' performance is the most volatile aspect in MLB from year to year.

The number of MLB relievers who have consistent stats each year with little variation is much lower than the number of relievers who don't.

Yes, they likely won't all sport massive ERAs all season. However, it is wholly possible that this collection of RPs are fluctuating to a disaster year, all at the same time. They might just all suck all year.

To be honest, in spite of the position presented in my earlier post, I was sorta hoping someone would show up with something hopeful to show me why I could expect regression.

Heh. Regression would be good! Ladies and gentlemen: you're 2012 Red Sox!

[scotian1]

The record worst bullpen ERA is 6.16 (Tampa, 2007). The Red Sox are at 6.13.

Not including today's game.

The record worst bullpen ERA is 6.16 (Tampa, 2007). The Red Sox are at 6.13.

Not including today's game.

Well 15 runs in the last three innings should now give the Sox the edge.

[Super Nomario]

Ladies and gentlemen: you're 2012 Red Sox!

I am not. You take that back.

[Reverend]

I am not. You take that back.

OMG I'm choking I'm laughing so hard.

I didn't think ngruzz's "The Aristocrats!" post in the game thread would be beat today. Well done.

[soxfan121]

The 62 Mets had a pretty shitty bullpen.

[Rasputin]

We should consider calling this bullpen the maginot line.

[darnedsox]

Two things:
As we sat silent for what seemed to be 5 full minutes staring at a blackened screen after Tuesday game, darling bride says:
"Now I know why you drank so heavily in the eighties" and
I would have worn a Tazawa shirt every day for the rest of my life if he had thrown the 'ol #1 to Swisher's ribs

[crystalline]

To get a sense of the historical futility level of today,
I went through some retrosheet box scores to look at how many times teams have blown a 9-run 5th inning lead.

Results:

2001: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 51. Other team won 1 times (1.96%)
2002: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 50. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2003: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 50. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2004: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 54. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2005: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 47. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2006: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 59. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2007: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 49. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2008: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 54. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2009: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 43. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2010: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 42. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
2011: Num leads after 5, 9 runs or more: 36. Other team won 0 times (0.00%)
Overall: 535 9-run leads after 5, 1 wins by opponent.
Probability of loss given a 5th inning 9-run lead: 0.001869
Probability of a given game having a blown 9-run lead in the 5th: 3.74e-05

So when you have a 9 run lead by the fifth, over the last ten years your chance of blowing the game is about 1 in 500. And before the game starts, the chances that you'll get a 9 run lead by the fifth AND then blow it are about 1 in 25000 -- that is, 1 game out of every 154 seasons you play.

(The estimate is very poor given that it's only happened once in ten years. But suffice it to say that the chances are very low.)

Ack.



edit: First, these numbers may well be slightly off - I did this quickly.
Second - The one blown game was Cleveland over Seattle in 11 innings on 8/5/01.

Edited by crystalline, 21 April 2012 - 09:01 PM.

[aron7awol]

Ok, this bullpen has clearly sucked in their first 42.2 IP, to the tune of an 8.44 ERA. Does anyone realistically think this will continue, when literally every pitcher in the bullpen can be expected to pitch much, much better than that? I'm not going to pretend this is an above average bullpen, but with this offense and 5 good to great starters, it really doesn't need to be. Getting Hill back and moving Doubront to the pen should improve the talent pool, and these other guys will absolutely pitch better going forward. Now if only Bobby could utilize them properly...

[PrometheusWakefield]

Ok, this bullpen has clearly sucked in their first 42.2 IP, to the tune of an 8.44 ERA. Does anyone realistically think this will continue, when literally every pitcher in the bullpen can be expected to pitch much, much better than that? I'm not going to pretend this is an above average bullpen, but with this offense and 5 good to great starters, it really doesn't need to be. Getting Hill back and moving Doubront to the pen should improve the talent pool, and these other guys will absolutely pitch better going forward. Now if only Bobby could utilize them properly...

No, clearly attrition alone will prevent a bullpen from maintaining a 8.44 ERA for an entire season. But you could cut that ERA in half and it still wouldn't fill me with confidence. And I think we're a ways from knowing whether Doubront or Buchholz will be good to great this year (and Bard too although I'm more confident in him).

[Rudy Pemberton]

I can't be the only one not sold on Rich Hill as the savior either. He looked great last year, in 8 innings. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was similar to Morales in performance. Surely, the pen can't get worse, but there doesn't appear to be a ton of upside with this pen.

[David Laurila]

Name one worse.

1925 Red Sox

[Sprowl]

I can't be the only one not sold on Rich Hill as the savior either. He looked great last year, in 8 innings. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he was similar to Morales in performance. Surely, the pen can't get worse, but there doesn't appear to be a ton of upside with this pen.

The new Rich Hill (ie, 2010 and 2011 in Boston) had an amazing whiff rate, better than Morales could ever hope for, and his slurve is a real out pitch. I would expect him to be considerably better than Morales as a LOOGY or LRL, but not an ace reliever who can reliably get RHB out. It also may take him a few months to regain full command of his slurve. The bullpen will still need an all-purpose relief ace.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

With Lars Anderson up (which I'm convinced it's to showcase him), I'm wondering if the Sox might be able to pry away one of the A's pitchers. As you remember last year, the Sox were close to trading Lars for Harden (deal fell through because of Harden's medicals, iirc). Lars obviously has no future with the Sox, and I don't know how much longer the A's want to keep trotting out a Barton/Ka'aihue platoon at 1B. A guy like Fautino De Los Santos is intriguing and seems like a fair trade.

Edited by TheGoldenGreek33, 25 April 2012 - 03:13 AM.

[TomRicardo]

Is it sad that our AAA team has a better bullpen than our Major League Team?

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I think Mike Gonzales is on his way here........ just a hunch.... I also think Alex Wilson could take over the 8th inning by year's end.

[joyofsox]

Nate Spears has been sent to Pawtucket.
http://twitter.com/#!/MikeAndrewsSP/status/195205515582775296

Maybe Rich Hill coming up? Or ...

[Plympton91]

That's just the move they made to get Byrd on the roster. Hill pitched a perfect inning with 2 K's today though. He's already pitched in 7 games, including back-to-back days. I have to think maybe another week - 2 or 3 more appearances, with one being of the 2 inning variety -- and he's ready. No sense wasting his talent in Pawtucket; take advantage of him before something else breaks.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Nate Spears has been sent to Pawtucket.
http://twitter.com/#!/MikeAndrewsSP/status/195205515582775296

Maybe Rich Hill coming up? Or ...

Spears was DFA to make room for Byrd on Sunday. Someone else (Thomas?) is going to go to make room for Hill when he's ready.

[NDame616]

Well, the bullpen did everything it could to blow yesterday's 7-1 yawner, but it could only allow 5 runs to score.

Bullpen yesterday:
3.2 IP
4 H
1 run (3 inherited runners scored)
1 BB
2 HBP

Aceves was a disaster, allowing a hit, a walk and hitting a batter. But he still ended up with a save. Morales pitched a "clean" 8th, but it took him 20 pitches in that "clean" inning.

Yesterday certainly shouldn't make us feel better about the pen.

[Lose Remerswaal]

That's just the move they made to get Byrd on the roster. Hill pitched a perfect inning with 2 K's today though. He's already pitched in 7 games, including back-to-back days. I have to think maybe another week - 2 or 3 more appearances, with one being of the 2 inning variety -- and he's ready. No sense wasting his talent in Pawtucket; take advantage of him before something else breaks.

Didja see John Jerry Justin Thomas last night? Or the rest of this season? Why would you wait until tomorrow to bring up Hill?

[Carl Everetts Therapist]

I'll say it again, Justin Thomas has no business being on a MLB roster. Last night he helped take a nice night from Buchholz and turn it into a disaster. If Hill is ready , he can't get here soon enough. They also need someone dependable for the 6thish inning, maybe Alex Wilson? What does Valentine have against Tazawa?

[Savin Hillbilly]

They also need someone dependable for the 6thish inning, maybe Alex Wilson?

Wilson is off to a rocky start--I doubt we'll see him in Boston till he's straightened himself out in Pawtucket.

[JMDurron]

I'll say it again, Justin Thomas has no business being on a MLB roster. Last night he helped take a nice night from Buchholz and turn it into a disaster. If Hill is ready , he can't get here soon enough. They also need someone dependable for the 6thish inning, maybe Alex Wilson? What does Valentine have against Tazawa?

Totally agreed on your first sentence, but for your second, I don't think we were watching the same game. Buchholz was mediocre at best, again, and was flirting with disaster through the entire game. 10 hits and 3 BB over 5.1 IP is not a "nice night" by any reasonable definition. The Twins let him off the hook time and time again, he was not effective and did not have a "Nice night" even before the inherited runner flood began.

On another note, if anyone wants a laugh, the MLB.com headline for the recap of the game is
Red Sox 'pen winning formula to sweep Twins