164 replies to this topic

[sodenj5]

I feel like Youk is in a unique position on this Red Sox team. He's an aging veteran off to a very slow start, with a contract set to expire at the end of this season. Meanwhile in Triple A, Boston's top prospect, who happens to play third base, is absolutely raking hitting .377/.406/.721 with 6 homers, 20 RBIs, and 2 steals, and homering in each of his last 3 games, and 5 of his last 7.

Recent controversy aside, Youkilis may soon find himself playing for his job if his production does not increase in a hurry. I'm not saying Middlebrooks could replace a healthy Youk's production this year, but at the very least, he could come in and play above average defense and perhaps provide an offensive spark in the bottom of the lineup.

In light of Youk's slow start, and Middlebrooks torrid start to the year, how long is Youk's leash? How long does he have to perform poorly before a serious change needs to be considered? Conversely, how long does Middlebrooks have to sustain his current pace before he starts forcing some consideration to be made? Clearly he's off to a hot start. His plate discipline and lack of walks will be a concern as will making the jump up to the majors. His numbers will also eventually level out in AAA at some point. However, if Youk keeps underperforming, and Middlebrooks keeps raking, at some point, serious discussions have to be had about giving him a shot, even if it's a DL stint for Youk and a "2 week tryout" of sorts for WMB.

Edited by absintheofmalaise, 08 May 2012 - 10:21 PM.

[JMDurron]

I feel like Youk is in a unique position on this Red Sox team. He's an aging veteran off to a very slow start, with a contract set to expire at the end of this season. Meanwhile in Triple A, Boston's top prospect, who happens to play third base, is absolutely raking hitting .377/.406/.721 with 6 homers, 20 RBIs, and 2 steals, and homering in each of his last 3 games, and 5 of his last 7.

Recent controversy aside, Youkilis may soon find himself playing for his job if his production does not increase in a hurry. I'm not saying Middlebrooks could replace a healthy Youk's production this year, but at the very least, he could come in and play above average defense and perhaps provide an offensive spark in the bottom of the lineup.

In light of Youk's slow start, and Middlebrooks torrid start to the year, how long is Youk's leash? How long does he have to perform poorly before a serious change needs to be considered? Conversely, how long does Middlebrooks have to sustain his current pace before he starts forcing some consideration to be made? Clearly he's off to a hot start. His plate discipline and lack of walks will be a concern as will making the jump up to the majors. His numbers will also eventually level out in AAA at some point. However, if Youk keeps underperforming, and Middlebrooks keeps raking, at some point, serious discussions have to be had about giving him a shot, even if it's a DL stint for Youk and a "2 week tryout" of sorts for WMB.

If we grant that it's unlikely for Middlebrooks to replace a healthy Youk's production, and that Youk is also unlikely to stay healthy, then the solution seems pretty simple. Just wait for Youk to need a DL stint, hope Middlebrooks keeps mashing, and give him a tryout then. Youk's potential production level is too high to give up on without an injury to point to, so he gets a season-long rope so long as he is healthy. If Valentine's comments were somehow related to Youk possibly not taking care of himself physically as he should off the field (total supposition on my part), then it's even more likely that Middlebrooks will get an injury-related opportunity soon enough.

[Eric Van]

Presumably the F.O. has rest-of-season projections (a la ZiPS) for both guys. You take those, add any relevant scouting information (especially involving Youk's health), add defense, and if at some point the WMB projection is significantly better than Youk's, you start thinking about making the move.

Unfortunately, ZiPS does not have rest-of-season projections for minor leaguers, but we can compare the Youk projection to a Middlebrooks MLE.

ZiPS now has Youk at .263 / .368 / .467 the rest of the way. The old mlsplits calculator has WMB at .325 / .349 / .597 MLE. Those numbers will come down, of course, but there's also a defensive edge for WMB that's likely the equivalent of 40 OPS points, maybe 60 or more.

[aron7awol]

Unfortunately, ZiPS does not have rest-of-season projections for minor leaguers, but we can compare the Youk projection to a Middlebrooks MLE.

ZiPS now has Youk at .263 / .368 / .467 the rest of the way. The old mlsplits calculator has WMB at .325 / .349 / .597 MLE. Those numbers will come down, of course, but there's also a defensive edge for WMB that's likely the equivalent of 40 OPS points, maybe 60 or more.

You shouldn't compare Youk's ZiPS rest-of-season projection, which is actually based on a large sample of data, with a Middlebrooks MLE based on 64 PA in AAA this season. If you're going to come up with a MLE for Middlebrooks, you have to add his 397 PA at AA and 60 PA from AAA to the sample to at least have the sample become somewhat meaningful enough to compare to a projection for Youk.

I realize you said those numbers will come down, but those numbers are meaningless. Do you know what the MLE would be if you weighted those league-seasons according to the number of PA?

[Eric Van]

You shouldn't compare Youk's ZiPS rest-of-season projection, which is actually based on a large sample of data, with a Middlebrooks MLE based on 64 PA in AAA this season. If you're going to come up with a MLE for Middlebrooks, you have to add his 397 PA at AA and 60 PA from AAA to the sample to at least have the sample become somewhat meaningful enough to compare to a projection for Youk.

I realize you said those numbers will come down, but those numbers are meaningless. Do you know what the MLE would be if you weighted those league-seasons according to the number of PA?

Of course the numbers aren't meaningless, and that's not even what you mean--you mean that they are meaningless by themselves. I didn't mean to imply otherwise. When I said you can "compare them," I meant you could start with them, and use them as a basis for the missing rest-of-season projection, which is the necessary endpoint. You could indeed do something like you propose doing, or, more simply, just regress them to the mean, a ton.

Since this is worth keeping track of, at some point I may build a quick-and-dirty spreadsheet, and try to get some alternative MLEs as well. You have to weight this year more than last, and probably the AAA numbers from last year more than the AA.

[dbn]

(snip)
In light of Youk's slow start, and Middlebrooks torrid start to the year, how long is Youk's leash?
(snip)

I'd say pretty long. He's a vet that been with the team his entire career, with a proven track record including multiple MVP-ballparkish seasons. The only reason I can think of that would slightly shorten the leash would beif he has and they know of chronic medical problems that they know aren't going away. It's may also be a factor that Robert the 5th hasn't been around for Youkilis' tenure, and thus may not have inherited the "respect for the veteran" leeway, but then again he doesn't necessarily control who gets called up.

[rembrat]

4th game in a row WMB goes deep.

[smastroyin]

I think the chances are higher that they try to get WMB reps in the outfield than that they displace Youk for essentially nothing.

If WMB keeps it up, perhaps they would explore trading Youk for something like a pitcher that doesn't want to throw batting practice every game. But then it is going to be more about maximizing value through eliminating a redundancy (the 1B/3B/DH logjam). This also goes if they fall out of contention for real and try to deal him to get a return.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Obviously, Youk's trade value isn't at its highest point, given his slow start, contract situation, and seeming hip issue, but if you've got Middlebrooks knocking on the door, Youk's the obvious place you turn to try to get some pitching help in here. If Ben's not on the phone right now exploring his value I'd be shocked. Unlike with a Papi or Pedroia, while Youk has been with the team for a long time, he's not some kind of fan favorite where there would be pitchforks and torches if you traded him away. I think it's generally accepted that he's kind of a dick (all of us seem to have our anecdotes) and if he's not going to produce, there's not going to be much heartache at his departure.

Further, you've got to plan for a future where he continues to slide. If he's still terrible at the All Star break, he brings nothing back. Now's the time to pull the trigger on anything interesting.

So, the question is, who might want him? Teams I'd see being interested:
Philly - money not a big issue and they're starting Polanco, who might be cooked, plus they're 29th in runs scored
Baltimore - Mark Reynolds is not good (but maybe they don't feel they can eat his contract)
Cubs - Theo and Ben appear to be willing trading partners, and Ian Stewart might not be much of anything
White Sox - big enough market, and they're starting Brent Morel, who I admittedly know nothing about, but is hitting .119

Baltimore and the White Sox could also at least slot him in at DH periodically.

Philly seems to make the most sense to me. They could part with fat Joe Blanton and he'd definitely be an upgrade to the Sox staff, and the money would basically be a wash. Is that Phillipe Aumont guy ready to rock and roll? That might help Philly pull the trigger. Maybe the Sox ask for a low-level prospect, too? Blanton has had one good, one not great start thus far. I don't see any 3B help in the Philly minors. They've got Pete Orr and Michael Martinez, two nobodies, as Polanco back-up options.

[bosockboy]

Youks for Thornton would work with Chicago. I'm normally not rash about these things...but it feels like this team needs a jolt of youth and Youk needs a change of scenery.

[Yaz4Ever]

I'd love to see him part of the rumored Marlon Byrd deal that nets us more than just Byrd.

[Plympton91]

The way things are going, the Red Sox will trade Youkilis, call up Middlebrooks, and in his first Fenway BP session, he'll get hit in the head by ball that ricochets off the cage and miss two months with a broken eye socket.

[Rudy Pemberton]

Why would a team like the Cubs or White Sox want an expensive, old, free agent to be?

[Van Everyman]

The way things are going, the Red Sox will trade Youkilis, call up Middlebrooks, and in his first Fenway BP session, he'll get hit in the head by ball that ricochets off the cage and miss two months with a broken eye socket.

If that's the case, this guy might be available too:

[Sprowl]

The way things are going, the Red Sox will trade Youkilis, call up Middlebrooks, and in his first Fenway BP session, he'll get hit in the head by ball that ricochets off the cage and miss two months with a broken eye socket.

All roads lead to Nick Punto.

[radsoxfan]

I think the chances are higher that they try to get WMB reps in the outfield than that they displace Youk for essentially nothing.

This was the first thing I thought of as well.

I don't know if Middlebrooks has gotten any time in the OF, but that seems like the more logical idea if the FO wants him in the majors in the very near future. From my limited knowledge, he is a pretty athletic 3B, so I bet there is a good chance he could handle LF, especially at Fenway.

Would it be worth the upgrade over McDonald to call him up for that role? Maybe not given that Crawford will be back soon. This Sweeney, Ross, Repko, McDonald round robin is depressing though, and Marlon Byrd isn't exactly a strong enough prescription.

[JakeRae]

I was pushing for a Youkilis trade this offseason to bolster the pitching staff. But, while I could've seen that happening in the offseason, at this point, the Red Sox can't trade him for close to equal value. The best bet, right now, is to keep riding Youkilis. If he is struggling at the break and Middlebrooks is ready, you start looking for ways to unload Youkilis. If he is playing well at the break and Middlebrooks is still knocking on the door, you might shop him to contenders for prospects or in a 3-way that brings back something of greater marginal value to the roster. If Youkilis is playing well and Middlebrooks has come back to earth, you get to be really happy you didn't panic in April. I'm not sure what the right course is if both are struggling.

You don't sell low on Youkilis now, after 11 games (he's only played 11). Give him some time to adapt to his new health condition and see if he can get going. If his bat is still there but the mobility is gone, he should have significant trade value to a contending team in need of a 1B or DH. Right now, any attempt to trade him is going to be read as a "blood in the water" signal and there is no chance of getting someone to offer fair value back. I'm also not convinced that a scorching hot dozen games from Middlebrooks really shows that he is ready now. Be patient. Baseball rewards patience.

[Philip Jeff Frye]

Jeez, a two week slump and you guys want to dump this guy? I guess we've reached panic button time already, huh?

[radsoxfan]

Jeez, a two week slump and you guys want to dump this guy? I guess we've reached panic button time already, huh?

Its not that crazy. He's 33, declined big time last year (lowest OBP since his rookie year in 2004), has been hurt a ton, is in the last year of his deal, and one of our best prospects plays his position. You can't help but think of the possibility.

I'm certainly not ready to say Middlebrooks has arrived after a 2 good weeks in AAA or ready to bury Youk. But even before this year, this was probably on the radar, and the way each has started the season just fanned the flames.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I seem to remember a lot of "dump him, dump him now" panic when there was another 33/34 year old middle of the order bat scuffling in April a couple years ago. In no way am I saying Youk is a year away from being a .900+ OPS bat again like Ortiz is, but that's a fair case study in not panicking too quickly based on a small sample size.

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

There's a big difference between "dump him!" and saying that he might be our most logical option for bringing back some pitching help. Lars would be another chip that might bring a pitcher of value back.

I disagree that Youk's value is lowest now. He still has plenty of pedigree and the ability to play a couple of positions, one of them, in 3b, where it can be hard to find a bat. Now might be the time to pry away a real arm, benefiting both teams. The sox have some surplus at the corners - it may be time to utilize that.

[TheGoldenGreek33]

Why would a team like the Cubs or White Sox want an expensive, old, free agent to be?

I don't know. Why would the Giants give up their top pitching prospect for two months of Carlos Beltran last year?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't know. Why would the Giants give up their top pitching prospect for two months of Carlos Beltran last year?

The Giants were contending (in first place at the time), needed an outfield bat, and Beltran was having a very good year (.904 OPS at time of trade).

Neither Chicago team is expected to contend, and are both headed for a youth movement. The White Sox in particular spent the winter shedding payroll (letting Buehrle walk, trading Quentin and Frasor). Picking up an aging and expensive corner infielder, especially one that is struggling out of the gate, seems to run counter to their apparent gameplan.

[Section15Box113]

Youk just pulled. Missed time would mean a dose of Punto... or would it?

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Youk just pulled. Missed time would mean a dose of Punto... or would it?

HBP in the previous inning, but he managed to run the bases. Gotta think it's just a bruise and any dose of Spears/Punto would be short-lived.

[Yaz4Ever]

Jeez, a two week slump and you guys want to dump this guy? I guess we've reached panic button time already, huh?

I've been calling for this for three years. At that time, it was sell while his value is high, but it hasn't changed since then. If WMB is ready, and it appears he's close, let's move Youk. In all seriousness, what could it hurt? He's older, declining, and doesn't seem to be vital to the clubhouse (not implying he's a cancer, by any means).

[Section15Box113]

WMB may be on his way, perSpeier:

Red Sox top prospect Will Middlebrooks, after returning to the Pawtucket lineup from a jammed thumb and going 0-for-4 on Tuesday, could receive a summons to the majors as soon as Wednesday, according to an industry source. With Kevin Youkilis having been sidelined for the past three games due to a stiff back and having been relegated to no more than decoy duty (he stepped into the on-deck circle as a potential pinch-hitter for Lars Anderson in an effort to deter Oakland from using a left-handed reliever against the left-handed Anderson) in Tuesday's game, the Sox have a need at third base, where Nick Punto has started the last two games.
The thumb issue prevented the Sox from calling up Middlebrooks on Tuesday. Instead, it was shortstop Jose Iglesias who was summoned from the minors to offer insurance in the Sox infield.
But Middlebrooks was determined to be healthy in his game in Toledo on Tuesday, and so he is available for a call-up today pending a medical determination on Youkilis. Assuming that Youkilis remains sidelined, it appears likely that the 23-year-old -- who is hitting .333 with a .380 OBP, .677 slugging mark and 1.057 OPS, along with nine homers in 24 games -- will be in line for his first major league summons.

http://www.weei.com/...be-called-today

[trekfan55]

WMB on his way to Boston, apparently.

Is the Will Middlebrooks era about to start? He is on his way to Boston today.Could be activated, dep'g on need(ie, Youk's back) #redsoxtalk

Maureen Mullen

Edited by trekfan55, 02 May 2012 - 11:31 AM.

[budcrew08]

I think it's good to give the young guy a shot.

[trekfan55]

Valentine says on @WEEI Middlebrooks starts tonight

Bradford

[mabrowndog]

Brian MacPherson @brianmacp
Will Middlebrooks is starting at third base and hitting eighth.

Edited by mabrowndog, 02 May 2012 - 02:55 PM.

[xjack]

Tonight's game has suddenly become must-see-TV. There's nothing quite like the big-league debut of a blue-chip prospect. My personal favorites: Rey Quinones in '86 (I think he had two hits and a steal), Sam Horn in '87 (a beautiful home run over the bullpen--I was sitting in the RF stands), and Aaron Sele in '93 (a shutout with a bunch of Ks).

[mabrowndog]

Tim Britton @TBritton_Projo
Youkilis did not officially say he's going on the DL, but it was strongly implied. Said 3-4 days from being able to play.


John Tomase @jtomase
Youk said back felt terrible last night, but much better today. Sounds like DL is a real possibility.


John Tomase @jtomase
Youkilis said he's 3-4 days from playing. Back issue has been bugging him since spring training, and now it's being "properly addressed."

Awesome. He's been playing through back pain for 6 fucking weeks, struggling most of the way, and NOW it's being properly addressed.

Three cheers for the Red Sox training and medical staff!!

Edited by mabrowndog, 02 May 2012 - 03:12 PM.

[trekfan55]

Awesome. He's been playing through back pain for 6 fucking weeks, struggling most of the way, and NOW it's being properly addressed.

Three cheers for the Red Sox training and medical staff!!

Who knows exactly what Youkilis told the staff?

JD Drew was known as a fragile player because he would always let management know when he was hurt. It got to a point where Tito actually reamed him (as much as he was capable of doing) during a game when they were severely understaffed. (Buchholz was used as a pinch runner). There are some players that will play through pain hoping it goes away.

If he is indeed 3-4 days away and has not played since Sunday, a DL means at least one more week, they should absolutely do it.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Who knows exactly what Youkilis told the staff?

JD Drew was known as a fragile player because he would always let management know when he was hurt. It got to a point where Tito actually reamed him (as much as he was capable of doing) during a game when they were severely understaffed. (Buchholz was used as a pinch runner). There are some players that will play through pain hoping it goes away.

If he is indeed 3-4 days away and has not played since Sunday, a DL means at least one more week, they should absolutely do it.

@jtomase: Youkilis said he's 3-4 days from playing. Back issue has been bugging him since spring training, and now it's being "properly addressed."

No word on whether it bugging him since spring training was something he let the training staff know about or not, but that it's just now being "properly addressed" is a bit disconcerting and leads me to suspect he's been playing through something.

[mabrowndog]

Who knows exactly what Youkilis told the staff?

JD Drew was known as a fragile player because he would always let management know when he was hurt. It got to a point where Tito actually reamed him (as much as he was capable of doing) during a game when they were severely understaffed. (Buchholz was used as a pinch runner). There are some players that will play through pain hoping it goes away.

Oh, please. It's the responsibility of the training and medical staff to detect, diagnose and treat injuries. Youk is a team asset, not some random patient walking into a clinic or ER. It's their collective job to LOOK for this stuff when players aren't open or completely honest. And based on the way Youk's been playing, they needed to be pressing him.

The "Well, he never told us he was in any pain" stuff is getting really, really old.

Edited by mabrowndog, 02 May 2012 - 03:24 PM.

[TheRealness]

Tonight's game has suddenly become must-see-TV. There's nothing quite like the big-league debut of a blue-chip prospect. My personal favorites: Rey Quinones in '86 (I think he had two hits and a steal), Sam Horn in '87 (a beautiful home run over the bullpen--I was sitting in the RF stands), and Aaron Sele in '93 (a shutout with a bunch of Ks).

I've had an irrational hard-on for him since he was drafted that has now become more rational. I have just cancelled my attendance at a chamber event tonight just to watch. To me, his first few ABs are must see.

I haven't been this excited about a Red Sox positional player since Pedroia.

[mabrowndog]

Brian MacPherson @brianmacp
16m
Jose Iglesias is still here, which is another reason to anticipate that Youkilis will land on the DL to make room for Middlebrooks.

[trekfan55]

Oh, please. It's the responsibility of the training and medical staff to detect, diagnose and treat injuries. Youk is a team asset, not some random patient walking into a clinic or ER. It's their collective job to LOOK for this stuff when players aren't open or completely honest. And based on the way Youk's been playing, they needed to be pressing him.

The "Well, he never told us he was in any pain" stuff is getting really, really old.

I agree. But Youkilis is always grimaces on every play and at a certain point the staff probably believes that he can "play through it". I don't think they routinely give MRIs whenever someone complains.

[RedOctober3829]

Brian MacPherson @brianmacp
16m
Jose Iglesias is still here, which is another reason to anticipate that Youkilis will land on the DL to make room for Middlebrooks.

Why would Iglesias still be around? Middlebrooks replaces Youkilis and Punto goes back to the bench.

[E5 Yaz]

Why would Iglesias still be around?

Maybe they forgot he was there

[NickEsasky]

Maybe they forgot he was there

Or he missed the 3:34 Commuter Rail to Providence.

[pjr]

According to Sean McAdam Youk to the DL retroactive to last Sunday.

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Why would Iglesias still be around? Middlebrooks replaces Youkilis and Punto goes back to the bench.

No corresponding move to make after sending him down, probably. Andersen just got sent back, so he needs to stay down for 10 days.

Unless, paperwork wise, Iglesias is optioned for WMB, then Andersen can be recalled to replace a DL-ed Youks. That would probably work.

Though with a retro-active DL, I don't know if they could do that, considering Andersen was on the roster already on the retro date.

Edited by Red(s)HawksFan, 02 May 2012 - 03:40 PM.

[SoxFanPJ]

Calling my shot now. Youkilis will be traded to the Dodgers before the deadline. Dodgers could use help at either 1B or 3B. Papi + Middlebrooks makes more sense at DH/3B in 2013. If Middlebrooks can hold his own offensively at the Major League level and provide better defense then Youkilis at this point it makes sense to cash Youkilis in this season if they can get a quality prospect(s) in return.

[trekfan55]

No corresponding move to make after sending him down, probably. Andersen just got sent back, so he needs to stay down for 10 days.

Unless, paperwork wise, Iglesias is optioned for WMB, then Andersen can be recalled to replace a DL-ed Youks. That would probably work.

Though with a retro-active DL, I don't know if they could do that, considering Andersen was on the roster already on the retro date.

My guess is they are keeping Iglesias if Youks is indeed headed to the DL.

Then it's Middlebrooks to start, Punto to the bench. Backup IFs are now Iglesias and Punto (with Punto now also being the backup 1B I guess).

[pjr]

Sean McAdam ‏@Sean_McAdam
Youkilis to DL, retro to Sunday #RedSoxTalkhttp://twitter.com/#!/Sean_McAdam

[Toe Nash]

I agree. But Youkilis is always grimaces on every play and at a certain point the staff probably believes that he can "play through it". I don't think they routinely give MRIs whenever someone complains.

Yep. Especially by the end of the year almost everyone is playing through some kind of pain. The medical staff's job is to manage it and get the best production for the most games out of a player.

It wouldn't surprise me if Youk had played through similar pain before and done well. Maybe it got to the point where it hurt too much or inhibited his movement just enough that he wasn't going to be useful. Plus having a guy creaming the ball in AAA who can play his position makes the decision a little easier too.

[bosockboy]

Calling my shot now. Youkilis will be traded to the Dodgers before the deadline. Dodgers could use help at either 1B or 3B. Papi + Middlebrooks makes more sense at DH/3B in 2013. If Middlebrooks can hold his own offensively at the Major League level and provide better defense then Youkilis at this point it makes sense to cash Youkilis in this season if they can get a quality prospect(s) in return.

Mat Gamel out for the year....the Brewers have nothing. I'm calling the Brewers....if K-Rod was pitching better that would make a ton of sense. He burned them by accepting arb.

http://www.rotoworld.../4928/mat-gamel

Edited by bosockboy, 02 May 2012 - 05:56 PM.

[bosox79]

12hr 36rbi between leagues in 28 games for WMB. Dont know his slash line but its ridic. What does he have to do to stay up all year?